Transcript
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I get so many headaches every month.
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Why wait?
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The and oil prices are at $100 a barrel, when reporters try to ask basic questions about the war, Trump melts down, Caroline Levitt melts down, the insults fly, reporters are called obnoxious, and Trump actually admits the most important point of all of it, which is maybe the United States shouldn't even be there at all. We will talk about it. We will also look at a bizarre moment when Donald Trump's Treasury Secretary is yanked out of an interview. Rush to the Situation Room, and when he comes back, he's shaken up, he's mumbling and stumbling and stuttering and looks to be on the verge of tears. And then just wait until you see the surreal interview between the President of the United States and Jake Paul. What a show. I am genuinely sorry to have to start the show like this, but we just received devastating economic news and I don't know that Donald Trump's presidency can really recover from this. I'm going to explain to you what's going on. We just got the new GDP Numbers not for Q1 of 2026. We're still in Q1 of 2026. It'll be over at the end of March. We just got the 2025 fourth quarter GDP numbers and the US economy grew just 0.7% in the final quarter of 2025. Now, even the estimate wasn't that robust. The estimate was 1.4%, the expectation, and we have now determined it's 0.7%. You will remember that Donald Trump was talking about 4 or 5% growth. Why can't we have 6 or 7? Could we have 8 or 9% growth? Some of the people around Donald Trump said, and so we have a massive, massive slowdown. And we now are facing disastrous Q1 GDP numbers because of Trump's optional and probably illegal Iran war, which would be the second quarter in a row of really terrible GDP numbers. Now, some of the estimates of the effect of Donald Trump's invasion of Iran on GDP are about a 1/8 percentage point reduction. If growth was already going to be 0.7% this quarter, we don't know, but imagine that this quarter was going to be like last quarter, 0.7% growth, losing a point because of Donald Trump's Iranian invention invasion would push GDP negative in Q1 of 2026. Oil prices are out of control because of the conflict. In fact, just to be thorough, let's just see where they're at right now. We know what's going on with gas price. About 100 bucks a barrel as of this exact moment that I am recording. Gas prices as you know, rapidly approaching $4 per gallon now at above 370 per gallon. So Donald Trump is a major economic problem. It's a, it's a political problem. The Federal Reserve now also has a major problem on its hands. This actually relates to Trump's obsession with I got to get too late Powell to cut the federal funds rate. Normally, as stagflation fears grow, which they are growing right now, normally the Fed would say, hey, we have a tool for that. We can cut the federal funds rate. But if inflation goes up, because energy prices are going up, oil is up, gas is up, that increases the cost of transportation, meaning everything that gets shipped to you or to a distributor gets more expensive. If you're in that situation and the labor market starts showing signs of weakness, which it is, we lost 92,000 jobs in February. Unemployment ticked up a little bit. All of a sudden, the Fed is going to say, I don't know that that's the right thing to do here. And consumer confidence reflects this instability. Consumer confidence is falling. And there are a few different important considerations here. The most important, the one I care about the most, is what happens now in your home. I just care about the average person. What is the effect of the weak jobs market, spiking energy prices, reduction in gdp, which can often mean that companies start laying people off or at least doing a hiring freeze, or all sorts of things can happen. Can you afford your life? That's number one. This is a political show. And so we also have to consider what, what this does for Donald Trump's party, especially given that they could lose control of the House and the Senate in the forthcoming midterm elections. Historically, when you've got a weak economy and you've got a foreign war, it's a problem. And I know that there is a sort of rally around the president kind of thing generically with foreign wars, but when that war is seen as optional, boneheaded, not in the interest of the United States, at least not right now, for, for most people, I don't know that it ever would be, but certainly not right now. And the economy is weak. And for Donald Trump, we may not even yet know the full economic disaster because we're not going to get those GDP numbers for some period of time, you've got a real problem. Now consider all of the failed promises that Donald Trump has made he and hasn't stuck to. He promised to lower the cost of living, but it's up. He promised to lower gas prices, but they're spiking like crazy. He Promised cheaper energy, but oil is up, electricity is up. He promised inflation would be over, but inflation has remained positive, and he said it would. We would see a price level decrease which requires deflation. We haven't seen it. He says GDP is going to be phenomenal, but GDP has been pretty weak under Donald Trump. He said we'll have a manufacturing boom, but the manufacturing jobs level in the United States is the lowest it's been in a very long time. He said factories would come back. Most of the factories they can point to as being under construction are related to things that happened while Joe Biden was president, even though Trump wants to take credit for all of that himself. Trump said that the national debt was going to come down, but it has continued to increase. He said we're going to see middle class tax relief, but much of the benefit of the tax plan went to corporations and really wealthy people. He said the trade deficit would be gone, but we're still running very large trade deficits. He said tariffs would strengthen American industry, but they've made everything more expensive. I'm not going to give you the full list. This is a full blown, full blown economic disaster for Donald Trump, and it is only going to get worse the longer this continues. Now, let me say one other thing about the. The longer this continues, Trump keeps playing with. We've basically completed the war. We're, we've won the war, it's over, we're ending it. And meanwhile, the strikes continue. But there's another layer to that, which is it's not only Trump's war to end. One of the biggest factors now driving oil prices up, which drives gas prices up, which will drive the price of everything up, is the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which is not open. Trump's administration put out something like it's open other than, you know, other than the little detail that ships might be fired on by Iran, it's essentially open. Okay, so then it's not actually open. Trump can actually end it for real this time. Even if we stop the, the missile strikes and the bombing, we can't make everybody else agree that this entire thing is over and it's full speed ahead. So, long story short, serious economic problems here. And in the meantime, Trump is trying to pull the old, I think it's over, folks. Let's see the stock market go back up and gas prices go back down, but it's not working. Something bizarre just happened, truly bizarre. Donald Trump went on Truth Social and declared unilaterally that the United States has completely decimated Iran, we've won the war. It's his mission accomplished moment. Except just about everything in this truth social post is completely imaginary. It is a fantasy world in which Donald Trump finds himself. Let's take a look. He said, quote, the United States of America has beaten and completely decimated Iran, both militarily, economically, and in every other way. But the countries of the world that receive oil through the Hormuz Strait must take care of that passage. And, and we will help a lot. The US Will also coordinate with those countries so that everything goes quickly, smoothly and well. This should have been a team effort, and now it will be. It will bring the world together toward harmony, security, and everlasting peace. Signed, President Donald J. Trump. Think about the contradiction for a moment here. If your enemy had been completely decimated, why is the most important shipping route on the planet shut down right now? Why are tankers being blown up in the Strait of Hormuz? Why are countries debating whether they need to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz? Because the war clearly isn't over and because the most critical, arguably the most critical, energy infrastructure element at play here is not functioning right now. While Trump is saying we've substantially completed all of our goals, which he hasn't, and it's essentially over, which it isn't, and we have obliterated Iran, which they haven't, we see that we have an escalating conflict in the region. U.S. and Israeli forces just keep striking and striking and striking, and there's retaliatory attacks and drone attacks, and there's threats of even more attacks. The fighting is in week three right now, and it has spread to multiple countries, and there's military installations in the region that are being flattened. And none of this is what victory looks like, unless I've completely lost touch with the dictionary definition of victory. Now, there's another reality check that I think is important, and I want to go back to the Strait of Hormuz. That shipping route normally carries about a fifth of the world's oil supply, and it's completely disrupted by what's going on right now. Tankers. There's videos on social media of tankers being blown up. Shipping has slowed dramatically, and you see it reflected. This is the free market they love to talk about, even though the oil market isn't really free in the sense of supply and demand. We are seeing oil prices, as I'm recording, at 100 bucks a barrel, and gas prices, which are now up as of this moment, about 37%. I'm doing just kind of like, rough math, looking at the charts. Right. Right now, that's not an economic environment where you go, we won. It's victory. It's all phenomenal. I did a big boy. And there's another aspect to this that completely undercuts Trump's claim that he won and that it's over. He is now asking other countries to send warships to get the Strait of Hormuz reopened. But many of those countries are not saying that they're going to do it. And several governments are saying, you've got to de. Escalate. Instead, we, we can't go forward here just by building up even more of a military presence and doing even, even more belligerent stuff there. And of course, that's not victory when that's what you're finding yourself needing to do now. What's Iran doing? Iran's leadership has publicly rejected negotiations. They've said they're ready to continue fighting. And this is exactly what I said on day three of this thing, which is maybe Trump's going to go at it a few days and say it's done. Maybe Trump's going to go at it four to five weeks and say he's done. Turned out it was like two and a half weeks. It's not only up to us. Once you start a war, it's not only your call when it ends. So there's a very simple picture, and they are trying to confuse and distort and use all sorts of different phraseology to make you think otherwise. Missiles are flying, shipping routes are under threat, oil markets are in turmoil, and tankers are being blown up in the Strait of Hormuz. And meanwhile, Trump goes, please send warships to the reason to the region. So this is a, it's a political playbook we've seen before. Declare victory too early. Bush did it in Iraq. Project strength. Bush did it by showing up, you know, wearing the, the fighter pilot's helmet on an aircraft carrier. Trump, I guess, just thinks he's constantly projecting strength no matter what he does, and then hope that nobody takes too close a look to realize that you're just blowing smoke. We see the facts on the ground. We know what's going on, the war is going on, and the global economic fallout is a disaster. So we, we're going to see if we can do a little something, and I think you'll kind of like this. We are going to start dealing with Trump's gas now. Now, I should clarify that I'm not talking about what you think I might be talking about when I say we're going to finally deal with Trump's gas next week. We are going to do an all week membership drive where the discounted price of a membership on my website, which is the primary means of support we have, will be whatever a gallon of regular gasoline costs under Trump. Okay, normally our memberships are seven bucks a month. Whatever gas prices are on Monday the 23rd, that's the first day of this thing. That's the discounted price we will offer memberships for. If it were today it would be $3.70. That's like a 50% discount. So you'll be able to pick whatever you think will be happening with gas prices next week. If on Monday you think it'll be lower by Thursday, you can wait and maybe the membership price will be lower Thursday. All you need to do to be notified of this discount is get on my mailing list, which you can do@substack.david pakman.com I love anything that will solve small daily annoyances in a simple way. And that's why I love my gear from Extra, our sponsor. The Wallet Pro by Extra is slim, clean and practical. Click the button, your cards pop out instantly. No digging around. And it also has RFID blocking to protect against wireless theft. And it comes with a lifetime warranty. And you can pair the Wallet Pro with the finder card for iOS which lets you track your wallet from your phone if it goes missing. Extra also makes the Travel Pack vacuum kit which lets you compress clothes and create up to 60% more space in your suitcase or carry on something I desperately need. The rechargeable pump makes it quick to use. The Travel Vacuum bags are built for durability on real trips, not just for closet storage. Now Extra is having a sale offering up to 45% off. You can unlock an additional 20% off with code Pacman for a limited time. There's also a 100 day money back guarantee. Go to David pakman.com exterior the link is in the description Coming out of winter, a lot of people will try to reset their routines. But health routines can get overly complicated very quickly. Pills and supplements and schedules and consistency becomes difficult. Our sponsor, AG1 just makes it really simple. It's a daily health drink. It supports gut health, it fills common nutrient gaps, and it has more than 75 ingredients including five probiotic strains. And the thing I love is instead of juggling a multivitamin and supplement and all this stuff, it's just a scoop mixed with water. I like that it's an anchor. Simple every single morning schedules shift and things go on. AG1 keeps me consistent. AG1 provides all sorts of nutritional support, B, B vitamins, etc. The probiotics support digestion. If you want to try it, go to drink ag1.com/pacman to get an AG1 flavor sampler and a bottle of vitamin D3 and K2 for free in your AG1 welcome kit with your first AG1 subscription. Order only while supplies last. The link is in Description the David Pakman show, of course, continues to be primarily an audience supported program. I invite you to sign up on my website join pacman.com you can also become a substack premium subscriber at substack.david pakman.com extra special huge thank you today to our two newest website members. That's Henrik Kubitsa as well as Madge Russell, Henrik and Madge. Thanks for your support. Join them. Get the bonus show. Get all of the great member benefits. Very simple. With average tech skills. It takes about 50 seconds, 55, 50 seconds to sign up at join pacman.com you can see it in his eyes when they're not swollen shut. You can see it in his face. You can see it in the pallor of his skin. Donald Trump is desperate. He is struggling. He doesn't like being pressed for answers on substantive issues. A reporter on Air Force One just hours ago asked Trump a really good question. Why are you sending 5,000 marines and sailors to the Middle East? And this is an important question. If we're putting more of the Sons and Daughters of America in harm's way for a mission that we don't really understand, and it's not clear Donald Trump himself understands it, we should have a crystal clear sense of at least as far as why Trump thinks it's worth doing. What does Trump say? He tells the reporter, you're a very obnoxious person.