Transcript
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David Pakman (0:06)
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David Pakman (0:52)
Why wait?
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David Pakman (1:29)
month Ever feel like your brain just won't click? Onnit Alpha Brain is a daily supplement engineered to support memory, focus and mental speed. Made with science backed ingredients, Onnit Alpha Brain helps you lock in, tune out distractions and stay sharp. See what your brain can really do. Visit onnit.com and shop Alpha Brain to unlock your next level. That's O n n I dash There are troubling new signs that Donald Trump has put his own party in serious trouble heading into the midterms. I'm not talking only about the House of Representatives. I'm talking about the Senate, where the betting markets now have it as 5050 who will ultimately take control of the Senate in November. At the same time, we have a MAGA meltdown as Trump supporters Megyn Kelly and Mark Levin are fighting with each other in a bizarre public feud as Donald Trump's press secretary, Caroline Levitt struggles really badly to answer the most simple questions about what is happening in the Iran war, what is going on with troop movements. And Trump, in an act of desperation, posts a late night wall of text rant attacking the Supreme Court after another setback. And this is going to read like a joke because the reason gas prices are up is because of Donald Trump's decision to invade Iran. But the hare brained and slightly dim uncharismatic Vice President JD Vance is saying gas prices are up in March of 2026 because I hope you're sitting down because of Joe Biden. If you guessed Biden, you guessed right. And meanwhile, the administration is bragging about media figures they believe they've taken down scary times. And Stephen Chung is coming after my interview with Gavin Newsom. What a program today. Donald Trump has done something unconscionable to his Republican Party and I love it. I love every second second of it. And I think you're going to love it too, unless you're a maga and then you're going to be very angry, probably with me, even though I have nothing to do with this. What Donald Trump has done in Iran has now caused an incredible change for Republicans heading into the midterm elections, which are now just seven and a half months away. Democrats have powerfully surged from behind and are now 50, 50 in the betting markets to take control of the US Senate. This, this is, this is really worth digging into and looking at just how remarkable this is now. Reminder, we're looking at betting markets. These are not polls, These are not. Who do you plan to vote for in November? This is the Kalshee betting market. Which party will win the US Senate? It's people answering, who do I believe is going to win? And it is now 5050 in the Senate. Now if you go back and you see it here in the polling in the betting market numbers, if you go Back to late 2024, Republicans were estimated to have an 80 plus percent chance of keeping the Senate even all the way into March and even April, Almost April of 2025. Republicans were expected to easily keep the Senate. But what happened at the point of this first decline that you see? Well, that was Liberation day. That was April 2nd. That was when Donald Trump dumped horrible tariffs on the world's nations and immediately lost some possibility of his party keeping the senate going from 80 to 83% down to only a 70% chance. And then again, as we move forward to roughly November into December of last year and then again more precipitously when Donald Trump invaded Iran. Look at the March numbers. Dear God. Dropping off of a cliff. We saw the Republican chances of keeping the senate drop to 65 and then 60% and 55%. And we are now at 5050 per the betting markets in terms of who keeps the Senate in November. Now, meanwhile, you might be saying, damn, David, if that's where the Senate is, where's the House? It is ugly in the House. A similar story. There was a point at which it was sort of like, oh, you know, maybe 70% democratic chance, and then it even got as low as only a 58% democratic chance of taking the House. Democrats are now by 85 to 15 in the betting markets expected to take control of the House of Representatives. Now, what is most notable and remarkable about this is that it's self inflicted. It's not some external thing happened that nobody could control. But Trump didn't have like the best handling of it, or Republicans dropped the ball or no, Trump did the tariffs and he didn't have to. The tariffs encouraged prices to keep rising, hurt small businesses, hurt employment, and that hurt Republicans chances in the forthcoming election. Trump didn't have to go and invade Iran. He didn't have to, but he did. And that is significantly hurt Republican chances of winning in November. Now, we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves. These are betting markets. These aren't votes. It's just people betting what they believe will happen. We need to get that out there and vote. But think about the consequences of Democrats potentially taking both the House and Senate. Trump's legislative agenda would be dead. And unless Democrats agree they are passing no major bills for the last two years of Trump's presidency. Democrats will control all congressional committees. They will get to decide what gets investigated, what hearings take place. Trump will be under constant investigation. Subpoenas, hearings, document requests, public testimony. There are potential impeachment proceedings that we would see. No Republican policy bills will move forward on immigration, tax cuts for the rich, deregulation. All Republican priorities are going to be doa. Trump will also lose control of the political narrative. And the congressional hearings that will no doubt start will be dominating the news cycle, leaving Trump to throw ketchup at the wall in the White House resident residence. And Republicans will also lose the ability to block oversight. They won't be able to stop subpoenas or committee investigations. If Trump needs to get people confirmed by the Senate, that's going to be a big uphill fight. For them. And I expect that if Republicans lose the House and Senate in November, many Republicans are going to see that the days of MAGA are numbered. And like rats abandoning a sinking ship, many are going to start distancing themselves from Trump, which will create a secondary wave of chaos within the Republican Party. Trump will become the lamest of lame duck presidents. Power will shift to Congress and away from the White House. And Democrats would have the opportunity, not a guarantee, but the opportunity, to shape really, the policy conversation going into the next election. So it is really important that we work very hard to take the House and the Senate from Republicans. The House seems like it's in really good shape for Democrats, and Senate is 50 50, but 5050 is pretty good. When just 13 months ago it looked like there was essentially no chance for Democrats to take the Senate. We could end up with the last two years of Trump's presidency, which will shape his legacy to a great degree, being the most disastrous two years of any presidency in modern history. I want to make that happen. I don't know about you, but that's attractive to me. And so we'll be talking and building as we get closer to the election about exactly how we make that happen. We have absolutely lunatic MAGA on MAGA drama going on right now. Could be a preview of what we would expect if Democrats take the House and potentially the Senate in November. I want to explain it to you, I want to tell you why I believe this is so important. But we have to start with what's happening. Sycophantic cuckoo Trump supporter Megyn Kelly and Sycophantic cuckoo Trump supporter Mark Levin, former and current Fox News hosts, respectively, are beefing. Here is what took place. Megyn Kelly started by reposting a tweet from a guy named Ryan Grimm, who is from Drop Site News. And it's about the attack on a Michigan synagogue. And in response to Megyn Kelly retweeting that an individual named Brooke Goldstein, who directs the Lawfare Project, attacked Megyn Kelly, saying, quote, megan, it's honestly sad to watch someone who was once a respected and serious journalist let bitterness and emotion override the principles that built her career. Reposting content from Ryan Grimm, co founder of the Soros, founded Dropsite News. Just because you share a problem with Israel is a stunning collapse in judgment that got into Mark Levin's head. So Mark Levin gets involved, posting about Megyn Kelly's post, quote, she's evil, diabolical, gone. Well, Megyn Kelly was not going to go quietly into the sweet night. Megyn Kelly replied, I'm sorry you have a micro penis, Mark Levin, but don't drag the rest of us into your drama. To which Mark Levin replies, poor Megyn Kelly, an emotionally unhinged, lewd and petulant wreck. She's completely revealed and destroyed herself. She's everything people say she is, but much worse. Never an intelligent, thoughtful or substantive comment. Utterly toxic. To which Megyn Kelly replies, micropenis. Mark Levin thinks he has the monopoly on lewd. He tweets about me obsessively in the crudest, nastiest terms possible. Literally more than some stalkers I've had arrested. He doesn't like it when women like me fight back because of his micropenis. Now, I want to be really clear because I don't want to be misquoted. I have no idea whether Mark Levin has a micropenis. A medical condition, a serious medical condition where the stretched penile length is at least two and a half standard deviations below the mean for a person's age and developmental stage. That's a condition. I don't know whether Mark Levin has that condition. This MAGA on MAGA battle is, is a big, big deal. We've previously talked about Republican battles between MAGA and anti MAGA Republicans. Oh, you know, Rand Paul's ideology is very different than Stephen Miller's, for example. That's non Trump Republicans and Trump Republicans. We've seen a lot of that. This is within maga. This is within the hardest core maga. Megyn Kelly, a big MAGA supporter. Mark Levin, a big MAGA supporter. And Donald Trump jumped in here to defend Mark Levin. Now, I'm not going to read this entire thing. Trump posted a wall of text to Truth Social, Truth Central. Yeah, where he said, quote, mark Levin, a truly great American patriot, is somewhat under siege by other people with far less intellect, capability and love for our country. Marcus, tough, strong and brilliant. Hence the nickname the Great One, conceived by our MAGA friend, the wonderful Sean Hannity. After years of dealing with Mark in legal, media and other capacities. Okay, blah, blah, blah. But the point here is Trump is taking the side of Mark Levin over Megyn Kelly. And this is a theme that is developing in maga. There are MAGA aligned people that are increasingly at odds with what Donald Trump is doing. Megyn Kelly has expressed some skepticism of how Trump is handling certain areas of his presidency. Tucker Carlson, who is an on again, off again friend of Trump's. And sometimes he's warring with Trump, but sometimes he's invited to the White House. Tucker Carlson has gone full blown anti Trump in the sense of saying that what's being done in Iran doesn't really make any sense. And there are other examples. We are, I believe, only seeing the beginning of this. There is, you know, the iceberg analogy where you see Only the top 10% of the iceberg floating out of the water and the other 90% is underneath. There is clearly growing, a growing sense of betrayal, actually to use Joe Rogan's word among some maga, about what Donald Trump is doing because he is doing almost the exact opposite of much of what he promised to do when he was a candidate. And especially if Republicans start to lose, if Republicans lose the House, if Republicans lose the Senate, I believe you will see these increasingly skeptical MAGA people who are kind of like, I don't know, I've been a big Trump guy, but he's not really doing what he said. And a lot of the stuff he is doing is kind of failing us. I don't know. I believe that they will be completely and totally unleashed and are going to go completely anti Trump, potentially setting up Trump for one of the most disastrous final two years of a presidency we will have ever seen and maybe even reaching approval ratings so low we may not have seen those in decades or ever. But that is all hypothetical. And it is predicated on more and more MAGA people realizing there's nothing Trump can offer them anymore. He can't run again. He is not potentially going to be in a position to even choose the heir to the MAGA throne because he'll be so unpopular. Only then are you going to see these stubborn, sticky Trump supporters start to peel themselves away from Donald Trump. And I look forward to it. I think it's going to be absolutely great. Now on Monday, we will be unleashing Trump's gas promo. Don't, don't get ahead of yourselves. I want to be careful in what I'm saying. Because of the price of gas going totally nuclear next week, we are going to be doing a one week membership drive where each day the discounted membership price will be the cost of a gallon of gas in Trump's America, it will be very high as far as gas is concerned, but it will represent a massive discount off of $7 a month memberships. If on Monday you look at the price of gas and you go, I think by Friday it'll be lower, you can wait and then take advantage of, of that discount on Friday, which will just mirror the price of a gallon of regular gasoline per the gasbuddy charts. I'm getting so excited that I'm hitting my microphone and I apologize. If you want to be notified about this discount, all you need to do is get on my substack newsletter@substack.david pakman.com if you love having quality fresh breads and pastries at home with no hassle, our sponsor Wild Grain makes it easy. 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Unfortunately for her, White House press secretary Caroline Levitt is kind of running out of options. She's trying to explain what is taking place in this administration, but she can only Explain it by lying or by not telling the whole truth. Neither is particularly good. She has given up on coherence and she is just saying words from the English language. And I have a perfect example for you. This continues to be an issue she continues to be asked about. Trump is saying other countries need to help us in the Strait of Hormuz. And the question from a reporter is a good one. Trump didn't consult these other countries about invading Iran. Trump clearly didn't prepare for the possibility that this could happen in the Strait of Hormuz and it would continue to push oil prices. Let's see where they are right now. As they were about 100 similar. Okay, they've dropped a little bit, but around $100 a barrel. Why would countries that weren't consulted in the first place now feel a responsibility to come and do what Donald Trump wants in the Strait of Hormuz? And Caroline Levitt just spits out words that make no sense.
