David Pakman (5:47)
Let me ask you a question. So here's my argument. Saying nothing about how predictable it was that they were going to be wrong, I don't think is enough. But on the other hand, shaming these people so hard that they go, man, the left is just toxic, and they run right back to Trump is also counterproductive. I think we need to think about our goal when we engage with these folks and with people who do a 180. If your goal is your own emotional satisfaction, all right, shame them, say, screw you, whatever. My goal is never again repeating this disaster that has now been more than a decade of Trumpism. So take Joe Rogan, for example, not because Rogan's, like, unique or anything, but because he's very influential. If someone like Rogan now starts saying, this ICE stuff isn't what we signed up for, they're just going after workers and, you know, some elements of Trumpism aren't working out. The response can't just be cool, Joe. Yeah, good. But it also can't be this sort of scorched earth hostility that we are seeing from some, because neither approach is psychologically going to achieve what we need to achieve. Let's start with the mistake people make, kind of in the name of being welcoming when someone says, I guess Trump isn't really what I thought, and we respond with nothing. We don't respond with the clarity that many of us had all along and that some of them failed to see and. And no accountability and none of it. We allow a dangerous lie to stand, which is that no one could have predicted what's going on with Trump, but it was completely predictable. How do I know? Because many of us were predicting it. The authoritarianism and the corruption and the cruelty and the chaos and the fact that the deportation policy was never going to be just serious, violent criminals. We predicted all of it in advance. And so if we pretend otherwise, no worry, man. Nobody could have guessed that this is the way it would turn out. We lower the cost of future mistakes, and that's a bad, bad idea. And it creates this perverse incentive where people can support reckless stuff, watch it blow up, and then reenter polite discourse with zero reckoning. There's no learning there. So I don't think that that's a good approach. But here's where the other side really screws up. If your response to Rogan or Schultz or whoever going, man, this, this is not good. This isn't what, what I signed up for. If our response only goes as far as you, you stupid, irredeemable monster, you are going to trigger the exact psychology that keeps people stuck. Shame, when it becomes identity based, makes people defensive and defensive people rationalize and rationalization puts them back in their same beliefs. We see this in cults. We see it in people who start to think about leaving a cult. And it is basic cult exit psychology. People don't leave a bad belief system because you humiliate them into leaving it. They leave when they are allowed to admit, I made a mistake without losing their sense of self, but only if that's paired with some clarity about what went wrong. So I think the balance really matters here. So the right response to someone like a Schultz or a Rogan is, listen, you weren't just unlucky, you were wrong and it was predictable. A lot of people warned you and you dismissed them. But it's great that you are having this moment of self reflection and you don't have to make this mistake again. And we want you to come join us and let's not make the same mistake again. So it's accountability. It was predictable. We were telling you. But there's an off ramp. There's a reasonable off ramp. And the accountability should be something concrete. It should be okay. Voting for Trump was a mistake. Going on your national podcast and saying Trump's the guy, that was a mistake. And then you can just say, I'm not going to make this mistake again. I've seen the light. I understand the mistake that I made. And we say, that's awesome. It's great that you're able to do that. You don't have to be pure ideologically. You don't have to love the Democratic Party. It doesn't mean that you bow down and, you know, say a seance for AOC or Gavin Newsom or whoever, that doesn't require any of that stuff. It's simply, I made a mistake. I voted the wrong way. Kamala Harris wouldn't have done any of this stuff. I might have had disagreements with her, but she wouldn't have done any of this stuff. That's it. And then that breaks the mental loophole. It forces people to connect cause and effect. There is. There was a cause to what you now say is bad, and you were part of that cause. And crucially, the door is open to you not making that mistake again. We don't hate you forever. We did tell you so. But we're glad for you to join us and choose better next time. And so we don't need to fall into this black white. Do we shame them or don't we? We can do much better than that. Let's invite back in. But let's not pretend it was a completely unpredictable shock that this is what happened. Because people like me and many others not patting myself on the back, millions of us knew that this is exactly where it was going to end up. The Trump administration has done the unimaginable. Except many of us did imagine it. For years, so many of us have been warning a second Trump term would be way more dangerous than the first. It'll be messy, but it be worse than that. It'll be globally embarrassing, but it'll be worse than that. It's going to be dangerous in a concrete and specific way. The Justice Department will be used as a weapon. Journalists are going to be intimidated and maybe worse. Critics will be punished. And power will be used merely to stoke Trump's ego and to push for revenge. And it's happening. The Trump DOJ arrest of Don Lamon. Our friend Don Lemon, who's been a big supporter of this show, and I have strongly supported his path into independent media. Well known Don Lemon arrested with coverage of a protest. Federal agents showing up despite his lawyer trying to coordinate a different approach. None of this is normal. It's not a misunderstanding. This is a message from the Trump administration. And it's a message to people like me. Not me specifically, but to all of us in the independent media space. A lot of the defenders of Trump said this isn't going to happen. Our concerns are exaggerated about authoritarianism. Institutions will hold, and it's all bluster from Donald Trump. And they were wrong. This is what authoritarianism looks like in real life. It doesn't arrive all at once. It doesn't require tanks in the street. It's selective enforcement and intimidation and making examples out of people and teaching others to say, I'm going to stay quiet because of what happened. And to Don Lemon. And there is a factor here that makes this moment even more dangerous. Authoritarian leaders become more dangerous when they start to decline cognitively. History has shown us this. When leaders feel weaker they get more paranoid when they sense that they're losing control. They lash out in even more extreme ways. Everybody becomes an enemy to them, and criticisms are existential to them, and challenges are direct threats to their very survival. Trump is not the same person that he was years ago. The rambling, the repetition, the confusion, the fixation on grievances and punishing others and the talk of revenge, this, combined with cognitive decline, is a very volatile combination. When someone like that is in the White House controlling the Justice Department, federal law enforcement, there's no restraint. Restraint has faded. And so the Don Lemon arrest, which is disgusting and terrifying and toxic, is part of a bigger pattern, which is the crackdowns on protests. Someone reportedly lost their global entry because they were at an ICE protest. By the way, I'm out of the country right now. Will I be able to get back in without a problem? I'm going to address that a little bit later. Trump now is saying elections should be nationalized and states shouldn't be running elections. That is terrifying authoritarianism. If this isn't chilling, whether you are a person of the left, an independent in the middle, a right winger, a social conservative, a constitutional conservative, whatever your politics are, if you care about the rule of law in the Constitution, this should terrify you. And the repression expands like a balloon that you blow up. Starts with the language of law and order, and then it's about security. And, well, we've got to protect the country from internal enemies. And the definition of wrongdoing grows and grows and grows. And if you're doing journalism, well, that's very suspicious. Protesting, that's very dangerous. You're against the president. That's disloyalty, and maybe you should be punished for that. So people warned, and I was one of them, that if Trump returned to power, the guardrails would be weak, if they even existed, and that Trump would surround himself with true loyalists. Unlike the first term, where it was like pseudo loyalists and critics would be targeted and the Justice Department would be used to go after Trump's enemies. Elections would become optional if they were inconvenient. Every single one of those warnings is being confirmed right now. The danger isn't limited to what is in the rearview mirror. The danger is what comes next, what's going to happen to protesters? Who's next, after Don Lemon? What happens with the 2026 election? The thing about authoritarian systems is they don't stop on their own. They don't go well. I think this is. We're good. We don't need to do anymore and when the person at the center feels threatened, diminished and desperate, which Trump does, they accelerate the repression and they say I need to do more. And an election becomes an obstacle that we need to get rid of. And the state will turn inward and target people domestically the way that they are already starting to do. So if you are of the mindset that this has gone as far as it's going to go, you're wrong. You're wrong. As I've said before, when people successfully do what they want to do and then they say, wow, we got away with it. Wow, we got away with it, they rarely say, let's hang it up. I'm happy to do nothing else. So at this point, if you are still denying the seriousness of this, I don't even know if naive is the right word. You are almost. I'm not even going to say almost. You are enabling it and helping more of it to happen. If you still say there isn't concern here. So later on we'll see the spiral over the Epstein dumps. We are going to see what is happening with the 2026 election and I will discuss whether I expect to lose my global entry or worse when I head back to the United States. All of that and more is coming up. And remember that if they take us down on any of our platforms, the only one where we own the data and I'll be able to remain in touch with you is Substack. So if you are as terrified about what's going on as I am and you're worried will the YouTube channels get shut down, what's going to happen with TikTok and TikTok then the place to be is on my newsletter, substack.davidpakman.com if