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David Pakman
It was election night last night and the results are fascinating. Republicans are starting to realize, I believe, something that could completely reshape American politics. The myth that Texas is permanently red is cracking and the election results are making Republicans nervous. We're going to talk about it. As Democratic turnout doubled in Texas compared to 2022, that is not the only problem for Republicans. We have a bizarre moment where Donald Trump suddenly realizes something about Iran that maybe he should have considered before the bombing started. And Marco Rubio may have accidentally revealed something they don't want anybody noticing. I will tell you about it. Meanwhile, Trump is now saying that higher prices are fine as a result of what he's doing in Iran, even after running on lowering the cost of living and in Congress, something you almost never see anymore. A Republican senator absolutely destroying a Republican cabinet secretary. Her name is Kristi Noem and a Republican called for her resignation. I love it. Plus, plenty of spiraling on Truth Social today. Something is happening in Texas right now and Republicans do not want you paying attention. They don't want you to notice because if you did, you might say to yourself, hey, we might be able to turn Texas blue. Maybe I'll get involved in phone banking. Maybe I'll get involved in donating to a candidate down in Texas. We are going to talk about exactly what is going on. But I believe that that myth that Texas is permanently read is certainly starting to crack. Democrats have won in Texas. It's been a while, but it is not the impenetrable political fortress that some Republicans make it out to be. And a lot of the cracks are showing. Now. One of the people talking about it most clearly is Texas State Representative James Talarico. James Talarico won his Democratic Senate primary yesterday, defeating Jasmine Crockett, who conceded. Talarico believes that what is taking place there is proof that Texas is changing. Let's hear from the primary winner, James Talarika scores.
James Talarico
The gravity of this moment, this, this movement is about whether the people will hold the power in this state and in this country. We, we launched this underdog campaign six months ago in my hometown of Round Rock, Texas. And since then, and since then, tens of thousands of Texans have shown up to rally with us in every corner of the state, from Beaumont to El Paso, from Amarillo to Brownsville and everywhere in between. We have recruited more than 28,000 volunteers who are organizing in every community across this state. And we have shattered grassroots fundraising records or all without taking a dime from corporate packs. This, this is a people powered movement to take on this broken corrupt political system. This is truly a campaign of, by and for the people. We are not, we are not just trying to win an election. We are trying to fundamentally change our politics. And it's working. The number of young people who showed up to vote in this election is unprecedented. The number, the number of Texans who have never voted before but showed up in this election is unprecedented.
David Pakman
And all of that is true. Now, there is a question as to who James Talarico is ultimately going to be up against. What? Why is that? Well, the Republican Senate primary was also last night. John Cornyn is the incumbent Republican Senator. His main challenger is Ken Paxton. Wesley Hunt also in that race, because it was a three way race. Wesley Hunt got enough of the vote, about 13% that neither Cornyn nor Paxton got the required 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff. So now the incumbent senator, John Cornyn, and, and the challenger, Ken Paxton, are going to go to a runoff. There is speculation that Talarico has a better shot at defeating Ken Paxton. The downside, of course, is that Ken Paxton is even more radical than John Cornyn. So if ultimately it will be a Republican, do we want the wackier one? This is a question that ultimately Republicans are going to sort out in terms of who will represent them. Now, let's talk about the bigger picture. Politically, hope can be a dangerous thing, especially if you're the party that has been relying on voter apathy and structural advantages to stay in power. And that's exactly what Republicans have relied on in Texas and in much of the country. In Texas, however, it's been shifting for a while because the population has grown, the suburbs of Texas have changed, young voters are a lot more progressive than the older Texas voters. And every election cycle, the margins get a little bit tighter. Now, there is no question that Republicans still have an advantage there. But when you have a midterm election in which turnout is generally lower, and you have a candidate like James Tallarico who has built really a national name for himself and has gone beyond the borders of Texas, it starts to push back against the idea that Democrats simply cannot win in Texas. Now, the other aspect of this is, and I know that I've said this before, you never want to go, oh, well, I don't know if he can win. If Talarico doesn't win, he could force a race that is tight enough that Republicans are going to have to dump a lot of money into Texas in order to keep it. And even that is a victory of sorts because every dollar that goes into Texas is a dollar that doesn't go somewhere else. Now, if you look at the details of what's happening, you look at the suburbs in Houston and Dallas, they used to be solidly Republican. They've been drifting towards Democrats. You look at young voters, they look nothing like the older generation of Texans that voted for Republican after Republican after Republican. And on some level, Republicans understand because they are trying to do all sorts of things to win without ultimately winning the will of the people. They want to change voting laws to win, they want to redraw districts to win. They want to tighten control over elections to win. The demographic trends they know are not in their favor and that's why they panic and that's why they're doing all of these things. Texas has a lot of electoral votes. If Texas ever flipped in a presidential election, the Republican path to the White House is essentially dead in the water. And that is the nightmare scenario for the Republicans. Before shifting blue in a presidential, presumably we would see a shift blue in a Senate election or in some prominent right leaning congressional districts, for example. So these small shifts in Texas, the record turnout for Democrats in this primary, this is sending serious shockwaves into Republican circles. I'm not saying Texas will be blue tomorrow, but something is happening. And as James Tallarico puts it there, a little bit of hope can be a dangerous thing. And if Texas becomes competitive, boy, oh boy, boy does that change the map. Now let's zoom out and look at the bigger picture of what has been happening in the last 13, 14 months. As far as special elections go, when you look at the numbers, they are getting more and more difficult to explain away as mere flukes. MAGA and Trump again got destroyed last night. And it seems clear that they recognize 2026 has the potential to, to be a brutal political bloodbath. And we're going to get to that polling and betting market data in a moment. Let's take the big picture of what's going on election after election. Since November of 2024, when Donald Trump was elected, even in deep red states, Democrats are suddenly winning or they are at least dramatically overperforming prior elections. And the swings are really impressive. Now, we've already talked a little bit about Texas earlier in the show. Democratic turnout yesterday has doubled compared to 2022. That's a major shift. That level of enthusiasm can flip districts and maybe it can even flip a Senate seat. We will see. Now combine that with Donald Trump's approval numbers collapsing nationally. And that is a combination of factors that is the sort of recipe for, for A midterm blowout, just a massive blue wave. And I would argue we already see the signs of it. You look at Arkansas. Democratic candidate Alex Holiday just flipped a Republican seat by double digits. That's Arkansas. It's not. Oh, it's Connecticut. It's. It's Gavin Newscombs. California. No, this, this is Arkansas. In Texas, we saw Democrat Taylor remitted flip a seat after a 32 point swing towards Democrats. In Louisiana, we saw Democrat Chastity Verrett Martinez flip a district with a 37 point swing. Not normal political back and forth that you might see from one year to the next. This is like the sort of movement where something is happening in the electorate. The broader trend is even worse for Republicans because. Because since Trump was elected in 2024, Democrats have flipped 27 seats in races all over the country. Republicans have flipped 0.0. Not a single one. Now, of course, Republicans have their talking points ready for this. When I was on CNN recently, one of the Republicans that was on with me used this exact talking point. And what they say is some version of, well, these are local elections and special elections, unusual circumstances. The numbers are always kind of weird. They're different. Doesn't say much about a midterm election. The problem for them is that we often see this sort of thing before a massive midterm wave. It happened in 2006 under George W. Bush. It happened in 2010 under Barack Obama.
Marco Rubio
Obama.
David Pakman
Right. It happened in 2018 under Donald Trump, where you started seeing these early special elections and they showed a big swing and they saw a turnout spike and they saw seats flip that were unexpected. And then the midterms hit and you see that the party in power gets brutalized, just crushed. And so inside the Republican Party, the reporting is that things are very chaotic right now. Do we align with Trump? Do we denounce Trump? Do we just not mention Trump? And another little detail tells you a lot about where the MAGA base is. Republican Congressman Dan Crenshaw had a primary last night. He lost his primary. Dan Crenshaw is being sent packing. But the sort of critical detail is Dan Crenshaw didn't lose to a moderate. Dan Crenshaw lost to somebody even more extreme. So even as Republicans are losing ground politically, their internal response is not let's moderate, it's let's radicalize, let's move further to the right, let's double down, let's put in place more purity tests. History tells us that in these scenarios, that is not the strategy that wins elections. And the betting markets Are noticing the trend now, this is pretty fascinating. On Kalshee, which party will win the House? The odds of Democrats taking the House have spiked now up to 80% after being down in November. The odds on in the betting markets of Democrats taking the House were as low as about 55%. Now they are at 80% in the Senate. I mean, listen, we knew the Senate was going to be more of an uphill battle, but the numbers are shifting there as well. We see that on, on Kalshee, which party will win the US Senate, 43% believe that it will be the Democratic Party. Now, if you go back to early 2025, less than 1 in 5 believe that Democrats were going to take the Senate. If you looked at late 2025, it was like around 28, 30%. Democrats have fought their way all the way up to what the betting markets believe is a 43% chance of taking the Senate. Now, a lot can change between now and November. Things happen quickly, scandals develop. But the warning signs are here. We're seeing the massive swings, the turnout surges among Democrats. Trump as president at the head of the party, extremely unpopular. And now we're going to get to this. Later in the show, Trump is straight up saying, so what if prices go up because of what I'm doing in Iran, it's worth it. Trump is now telling Americans he has determined it's worth it for them to pay more for us to pay more for Trump to get his war in Iran. So we may be on the way to a brutal backlash against Republicans in November. But, and this is the caveat, and you're going to hear me say this a lot, only if we get out the vote, the negative approval for Trump, negative favorability, it's interesting, but if you dislike Trump and stay home, it's not really going to accomplish very much. And so Republicans know it. They are trying to figure out how they can take the election even without winning the will of the people, through manipulation of the elections, closing polling places, purging voter rolls, putting in place partizan actors who can say, I don't believe these numbers are accurate, all of that stuff. They have a plan to win despite unpopularity. We need to make sure that we understand that our opinions and our feelings don't become an electoral factual reality unless we actually get out and vote. So after the break, we will talk about Republican fallout as a result of these elections. And by the way, the Kristi Noem hearing, they brought up the dog. We will discuss all of that and more. Credit card interest rates are brutal. Right now for a lot of people they are over 20% which means even just to cover basics groceries, gas, utilities. Carrying a balance can get very expensive and and once the interest is compounding, it is hard to make real progress. 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Remember to get the David Pakman Show Podcast daily for free on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or any podcast app of your choice. If you are on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, please leave us a five star rating and follow or subscribe free on those platforms. It really helps us a lot. The Right is making a huge push to take over the podcast space completely. We don't want to let them do it. So rate and follow on Apple Podcasts and Spotify if you so please. Donald Trump had another terrifying moment where he suddenly realized I may not have properly planned this Iran thing. And he seemingly forgot where his own father was born. In a scary cognitive event, Donald Trump was asked by a reporter, what if after everything you're doing in Iran, someone terrible takes over? And this is of course, something I've brought up. The 86 year old Ayatollah was a terrible theocratic extremist, but he was 86 and the Iranians had done succession planning. So how likely is it that someone just as bad or worse is going to take over? Trump is asked about this and he reacts almost like this is the first time he ever considered it. And he goes, I guess that could happen. Yeah, maybe.
Reporter
What's the worst case scenario that you have planned for in Iran?
Donald Trump
Well, I don't know if there's a worst case. We have them very much beaten militarily from the military standpoint. They're still lobbying some missiles. At some point, they won't even be able to do that because we're hitting all of their carriers, we're hitting all of their missile stock. You know, they built up all these missiles over the last few years. They had a lot of them, they've shot a lot of them, and we're knocking out a lot. I guess the worst case would be we do this and then somebody takes over who's as bad as the previous person. Right. That could happen. We don't want that to happen. It would probably be the worst. You go through this and then in five years you realize you put somebody in who is no better.
David Pakman
That's right. That's exactly right. You see the gears grinding the rust off of themselves because it's true that the Ayatollah was horrible, terrible, vile. If you have progressive values, if you have Democratic values, if you have values of secularism, which doesn't mean you're against religion, it just means you're for separation of church and state. You could not possibly see the Ayatollah as anything but a terrible, terrible, terrible influence on the country of Iran. But The Ayatollah was 86 and we know that there was a succession plan in place. And I like how Trump goes, well, I don't know. I mean, I, I guess it could happen that we do all of this and like someone takes over and they're really not any better. Did no one bring that up before you did this? Did. Is this the first that you're hearing about this? Unfortunately, quite likely possibility? And it seems that it is Trump sort of talking himself into that possibility. Now here is an unbelievable moment. Donald Trump appeared to forget where his own father was born. Trump is sitting next to German Chancellor Mertz, and Trump starts going, my father was born in. My father was born there. And he seemingly forgets the word Germany, but also forgets that his father was born in New York City. This is a terrifying cognitive fail.
Donald Trump
It's a shame. It's. And that country, uk and I love that country. I love it. My mother was born there. I love it. My mother was born there. My father was born. Like, he knows all about my father. My father was born there. So you know very places.
David Pakman
My father was born there. And he points to the German chancellor. Clearly, Trump seems not to know or remember or care that his father was not born in Germany. He was born in the United States. Yet another little peg in the Trump really isn't doing well cognitively category. In another totally harebrained moment, Donald Trump seems to say that we are now on bad terms with Spain and our military will use Spanish airports even against the desires of Spain. That doesn't sound particularly logical, but some of the European.
Donald Trump
Like Spain has been terrible. In fact, I told Scott to cut off all dealings with Spain. Spain, first of all, it started when every. Every European nation, at my request, paid 5%, which they should be doing. And everybody was enthusiastic about it. Germany, everybody. And Spain didn't do it. And now Spain actually said that we can't use their bases, and that's all right. We don't know. We could use their base if we want. We could just fly in and use it. Nobody's going to tell us not to use it.
David Pakman
Wow.
Donald Trump
We don't have to.
David Pakman
But might makes right in Trump's world.
Donald Trump
Were unfriendly. And so I told him we don't want to. Spain has absolutely not nothing that we need other than great people. They have great people, but they don't have great leadership. And as you know, they were the only country that in NATO would not agree to go up to 5%. I don't think they would have agreed to go up to anything. They wanted to keep it at 2%, and they don't pay the 2%. So we're going to cut off all trade with Spain. We don't want anything to do with Spain.
David Pakman
Look at that. On a whim. Because Spain goes, yeah, we don't really want you launching attacks on Iran off of our soil. Like, we're not stopping you from doing it, but we just don't want to be involved in that. And Trump goes, that's it. Cut off all trade, cut off diplomatic relations. And by the way, we will use your bases to launch attacks if we want to, and you're going to do nothing about it. This is, of course, not diplomacy. This is not sensible foreign policy. But there are people, you know, we look at this and we're horrified and embarrassed by it. There are a lot of MAGA people who go, Mike makes, right, we'll do whatever we want. We don't give a damn what the Spanish think. We will just do it. And this is what make Trump's, makes Trump so great, as terrifying and, and harebrained as this is. And we see it and we go, what a, what a horror. On the MAGA side, a lot of them love this crap, but do they like, do they like prices going up and Trump going, it's fine. I've decided it's fine. That's the question. That's what we're going to talk about next. Trump just said something out loud that cuts through like a hot knife through butter. One of the biggest promises that he ran on. For years, Donald Trump has been saying, I am the affordability president. I'm going to lower the cost of living. We're going to lower gas prices, we're going to lower grocery prices, we're going to lower energy prices. This was the pitch, this was the promise. And he said it would happen quickly and right away. And of course, it hasn't happened. Inflation has been more than zero since Donald Trump took over. If inflation is more than zero, prices are going up. It's a mathematical, arithmetical reality. But now that Trump is attacking Iran, is it a war or not? Don't call me war. Right. Trump is now admitting something completely different. He is saying, you know, prices might go up for a little bit, we might have high oil prices for a little bit, but that's okay. He has decided for you that bombing Iran is worth higher gas prices, which, by the way, lead to higher prices on so many different things. Here is Donald Trump. See if you can find any empathy in his voice.
Donald Trump
Feel I do. What? I have never had more compliments on something I did. People felt it's something that had to be done. So if we have a little high oil prices for a little while, but as soon as this ends, those prices are going to drop, I believe, lower than even before.
David Pakman
Right, Right. This would be bad enough even if Trump hadn't explicitly run on lowering prices. This would be bad even if Trump hadn't explicitly promised gas prices are going to be lower than ever. But now Trump is running on raising prices and saying it's going to Be absolutely and completely fine. Take a look at this gas price chart. We have just seen the fastest three day increase in gas prices in at least five years where gas prices have surged just this month from around 290 to $3.21. That's just three days, four days. So is he lowering gas prices or is he raising gas prices? Either way, he wants you to believe that he's doing the right thing. When? Now, let's kind of reset here. Trump's talking about oil prices going up. Oil prices are spiking dramatically. When oil prices go up, not only does gas get more expensive, everything gets more expensive because as gas prices go up, the cost to ship stuff goes up. Airline tickets go up. Food prices rise because they are brought on trucks. Energy is built into the price of almost everything in the economy. So when Trump flippantly goes, well, oil might be more expensive for a while, but that's okay. What Trump is saying is your cost of living is going to get more expensive, but that's okay. I want you to really think, especially if you're one of the maggots in the audience, do you feel that this is worth it? Is what Trump is doing in Iran a good trade for you paying more for gas, groceries, everything that gets shipped to you, airline tickets and, and, and whatever else goes up as a result of this? Do you feel that that's worth it? Look into yourself and say, I like it, even though I'm going to have to pay more. Now, the message with Trump has done a 180. It used to be elect me and prices will go down. Didn't happen for 13, 14 months and now it's thanks to my decisions, prices are going to go up. But it's a good thing. It's a good thing and we should be happy about it because what I'm doing is so good. Geopolitical conflict in oil producing regions is known to be a volatile thing. But sometimes there is a degree of inevitability, or at least it's not the United States proactively responsible for, for gas prices going up. But this time it's just Trump. And Trump is insisting he's getting compliments. I'm getting high marks. I'm getting compliments. Everybody that talks to me about this thinks this is just the greatest thing in the world. And meanwhile, the average American is getting saddled with more economic pain. Drivers will have to pay more at the gas pump and it'll be because of Iran. Families will pay more for groceries and it'll be because Trump wanted to go into Iran. Businesses will pay more to ship goods because Trump decided to go into Iran. So the campaign was I will lower the cost of living. And now Trump is saying, what I'm doing is going to raise the cost of living. But that's a good thing. It's worth it. He decided it's worth it for you to struggle to pay for stuff. So my question is, especially to the magazine, the audience, is it worth it? Leave me a comment wherever. Send me an email info@david pakman.com A lot of people assume all seafood is just seafood until they taste something that is on another level. Our sponsor, Wild Alaskan Company is my go to because their portions cook beautifully, the flavor stands out. I've been a fan for years, so we reached out to them about becoming a sponsor. What Wild Alaskan Company does is deliver wild caught seafood right to your door. Perfectly portioned, frozen right off the boat. Locks in the quality and the taste and it makes weeknight meals really easy. But it feels like a step up. I've been cooking the coho salmon, mild, versatile, hard to mess up even when I don't have a lot of time to make dinner. Just as important is how it's sourced. Wild Alaskan works with well managed fisheries. 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We're going to put two clips together, ok? When you watch them back to back, something becomes obvious. Thousands of Americans are stranded in the Middle east because Donald Trump launched military action against Iran. He seemingly, as we are learning, did it haphazardly without a proper plan. Why was there not an evacuation of Americans before the strikes began? Well let's start with Donald Trump's answer to the question. And he very quickly goes to, well, maybe we should ask Marco Rubio about that.
Reporter
Thousands of Americans are stranded. Why wasn't there an evacuation plan? And who do you send planes to get people out?
Donald Trump
Well, because it happened all very quickly. We thought, and I thought maybe more so than most, I could ask Marco, but I thought we were going to have a situation, situation where we were going to be attacked. They were getting ready to attack Israel, they were getting ready to attack others. You're seeing that right now. And a lot of those missiles that are hitting in those are stationary. Those were aimed there for a long period of time at these other countries. So I think I was right about that. We attacked first, and if we didn't, it could have been, you know, look, we're really all right.
David Pakman
So now Trump just assembles into a completely impenetrable world word salad. But the point here is Trump, Trump's answer to why didn't you get the Americans out before this all started? Is it moved very quickly. And maybe Marco Rubio knows, which is not really a reassuring answer when Americans are stranded in a conflict zone. So then reporters also asked Marco Rubio essentially the same question, Was there a plan in place to evacuate Americans before the attack? And Marco goes, well, we're trying. We're making the plan and we're doing it now. But if you're doing it now, by definition, you didn't do it before the attack.
Reporter
Was there a plan in place to evacuate Americans before the attack?
Marco Rubio
Well, that's the plan we're trying to carry out. The problem is, or the challenge we are facing is airspace closures. If a country closes their airport, for example, in some cases, the airports have been hit. So the airport in Kuwait was hit. So if an airport's been attacked or the airspace is closed, then we can have the planes lined up to go, but we can't get them to land because we don't have the permissions to land there. So that's the challenge. But rest assured, we are confident that we are going to be able to assist every American. As I told you, right now, we have a little over 1500, maybe closer to 1600Americans requesting assistance. And we know that we're going to be able to help them. It's going to take a little time because we don't control the airspace closures. That said, there may be more people out there that need help. We need to know who you are. So, please, I'm asking the media, in other Words.
David Pakman
The evacuation plan is happening now. Why didn't you evacuate people before the hostility started? Well, we're trying to evacuate them now. Yes, but it been three days. It's been four days, five days, however long it's been. In other words, there wasn't such a plan before the attack. This is the sort of logistical planning that you would normally do before the military action begins to say, well, we're doing it now, therefore, we are kind of doing it. No, the before is really the key part. You secure the airspace, you move civilians, you prepare evacuation routes. It's basic crisis planning. And what we're seeing now is completely different. They bombed first, and now they're scrambling to try to figure out, how do we get Americans out safely? And the contradiction between Trump and Rubio is fascinating. It makes it even worse. Trump says it moved too quickly, but Rubio says, we're. We're doing the evacuation plan right now. You put it together, and it's a very obvious implication. The conclusion is they launched these attacks before a plan was in place. And it's like a little detail, but it's sort of the key thing. And the question that it raises is, if thousands of Americans were still in the region, did you not think to move them out? Because ultimately you didn't come to believe it was the most important thing? In other words, starting the bombing sooner was more important. It smothered as a priority getting Americans out, or is it not even something that Trump thought about or cares about? And the bigger picture is that this is an incompetently run, shortsighted plan. As we talked about yesterday with Senator Ruben Gallego, you can look at the situation and say, of course, the Ayatollah is a disaster. If you believe in democracy and the rule of law and civil rights and human rights. And how could you possibly look and go, oh, yeah, the Ayatollah is great. But you do have to ask the question, once it comes to American involvement, was it in the interests of the United States right now to do this thing? And it is. Is it actually likely or well positioned to solve the problem of the ayatollah and the regime? And increasingly, the answer kind of seems like no. And then, of course, there's like, is it legal? Which seems like such a quaint question at this point in time, but some of us do still care about that. On every single level, incompetence is the thing that reigns supreme. There is an absolutely fascinating video of a Republican Senator Thom Tillis, eviscerating Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem and calling for her resignation. People clapped for Thom Tillis. Now remember, remember, Thom Tillis is quitting. And one of the themes that we have seen under Trump ism is that Republicans will go scorched earth on Trump or his, his cabinet once they don't have a dog in the fight or a stake in the game, for lack of a better term. Check out, this is a Republican. Okay, check this out.
Thom Tillis
Those people. And I want to detain fewer of the others. And Mr. President or Mr. Chair, in my remaining time, I have a lot to go, but I want to submit this letter from the Office of Inspector General that cites 10 different instances under Ms. Noem's leadership where they've been misled and not allowed to pursue investigations that they think are critically important. Does anybody have any idea how bad it has to be for the OIG in this agency to come out and do this publicly? That is stonewalling. That's a failure of leadership. And that is why I've called for your resignation. And if I don't get an answer to these questions, I don't want an applause. Please don't do that for me. If I don't get an answer to these questions, if I don't get an answer that you've had a month to respond to and the remaining ones as of today, I'll be informing leadership that I'm putting a hold on any odd block nominations until I get a response. And in two weeks, if I don't get a response, I'm going to deny quorum and markup and as many committees as I can until I get a response. Thank you, Mr. Chair.
David Pakman
That is a Republican Senator. Now, it would have been nice to see this kind of pushback a few years ago and also from Republicans who weren't already retiring or quitting or whatever the case may be. But this was just blistering stuff. He actually brought up the dog killing. He brought up the puppy killing. This is just something else.
Thom Tillis
Now, Secretary, I read your book last week and honestly, some of the parts of it impress me, but some of it distresses me. And I'll give you a good example of one that does. The passage where you talk about killing a dog that was 14 months old. I trained dogs, all right? And you are a farmer. You should know better. You should know that if you're going out to a hunting lodge and you're putting pheasants out and you're putting dogs out, you don't take a puppy out there. A 14 month old dog is basically a teenager. In dog years, you decided to kill that dog because you had not invested the appropriate time and training. And then you have the audacity to go into a book and say, it's a leadership lesson about tough choices. It's in your book.
David Pakman
It's really. It's really an anecdote about incompetence.
Thom Tillis
We could play it if we had time. At that same lunch hour, you killed a goat. And you killed the goat because you said it was behaving badly. You are a farmer. You don't castrate a goat. They behave badly. You should have probably done that before. But my point is, those are bad decisions made in the heat of the moment, not unlike what happened up in Minneapolis. I expect we're an exceptional nation, and one of the reasons we're exceptional is we expect exceptional leadership. And you've demonstrated anything but that in the time that I've seen you responding to the emergency in North Carolina and across the Southeast and acknowledging when mistakes are made and speaking too soon for the expedient of social media or whatever it is.
David Pakman
This is spot on. Spot on from a Republican senator. Kristi Noem has gotten mileage from couching these grim anecdotes about killing a puppy and killing a goat as I can make tough choices. I can make decisions that are difficult and I can carry them out, and then we move forward with me as a leader. But what Thom Tillis points out is that these weren't really big leadership moments and tough choices. These were the results of bad planning and incompetence. She ended up in a position of killing this puppy because she did something that didn't make any sense. She ended up in a position of killing this goat, I guess because she didn't castrate the goat. I don't know. Thom Tillis seems to know a lot more about that than I do, and she frames it all as, I'm awesome because I did this stuff. Now, one other moment from this hearing. Our friend Senator Alex Padilla, check out the interview I did with him not long ago. Starts saying, hey, if Trump or Stephen Miller tell you to send ICE agents to polling places, would you say no? And Kristi Noem polls what I call the John U. Which is. She answers a different question. Check this out.
Kristi Noem
Ask a question here. Thank you. Trump adviser Steve Bannon, among others close to President Trump, has called for ICE agents to, quote, surround the polls, unquote. However, acting ICE director, your acting ICE Director Todd Lyons has said, quote, there's no reason for us to deploy to a polling facility, unquote. And just last week, your Deputy Assistant Secretary for Election integrity, Heather Honey, told a bipartisan group of state election officers on a call that ICE would not be present at polling places. I know this question came up earlier, but I have two specifics. One, which is it? Do you, Secretary Noem, agree with Steve Bannon or your acting ICE director and your Deputy Assistant Secretary, there are no
Reporter
plans to have ICE officers at polling locations? I'm not certain. Senator, if you're indicating that your party's planning on facilitating illegal aliens voting in
Kristi Noem
our elections, I respect that you're saying there's no current plans, but obviously plans can change. No plans is the right answer, but not definitive enough. Sending ICE agents to the polls to intimidate voters is illegal. And so I want to ask you explicitly, if President Trump or Stephen Miller directed you to do it anyway, with or without a bogus national emergency declaration, would you say, no, sir, there is
Reporter
no plans to send ICE officers to polling locations, and we're not planning on doing that. Are you planning on sending illegal aliens to vote?
Kristi Noem
No. That's already illegal to do and extremely,
Reporter
extremely people have done it.
David Pakman
Let me tell you what this reminds me of. This is going to be. This is one of my favorite clips for some of the younger people in the audience. This is. This is maybe something you haven't seen before. Years ago, then Congressman John Conyers questioned Bush administration lawyer John Yoo about. This was around enhanced interrogation techniques, AKA torture. And the question was if the President wanted to, could he order a suspect buried alive? And John, you. Pulls the. I know the President. The President would never do that. This is the, this is where this technique comes from.
John Yoo
Is there anything, Ms. Professor, you. That the President could not order to be done to a suspect if he believed it necessary for national defense?
John Yoo's Counsel
Well, Mr. Chairman, I think that goes back to the quote you just read because.
John Yoo
No, I'm just asking you the question. Maybe it does. That doesn't. But what do you think?
John Yoo's Counsel
I think it's the same question that I was asked.
John Yoo
Well, what's the answer?
John Yoo's Counsel
First, can I make clear. I'm not talking about.
John Yoo
You don't have to make anything clear. Just answer the question. Council.
John Yoo's Counsel
I just want to make sure. I'm not saying anything.
John Yoo
You don't have to worry about not saying. Just answer the question.
David Pakman
Okay.
John Yoo's Counsel
My, My thinking right now.
John Yoo
Yes, right now.
John Yoo's Counsel
My thinking right now.
John Yoo
This moment.
John Yoo's Counsel
This moment, Mr. Chairman, is that you know first the question you're posing.
John Yoo
What is the answer?
John Yoo's Counsel
Mr. Chairman, I'm not trying to make you up.
John Yoo
I Get it?
John Yoo's Counsel
Okay, let me answer the. I won't answer the question.
John Yoo
No, you. You waste. You're wasting my time. Look, counsel, I practice law. Holy. Could the President order a suspect buried alive?
John Yoo's Counsel
Mr. Chairman, I don't think that I've ever. I'm asking you that, given the advice that the President could bury somebody alive.
John Yoo
I didn't ask you if you ever gave him advice. I asked you. Do you think the President could order a.
David Pakman
This is an absolute classic.
John Yoo
Expect buried alive.
John Yoo's Counsel
Mr. Chairman, my view right now is that I don't think a president would. No American president would ever order that or feel it necessary.
David Pakman
Oh, it's the absolute epitome of not answering the question you're asked and answering other questions. Could the President order someone buried alive? I don't know of any reason a president would. Would. Would want to do that. Okay, but could the President order someone buried alive? I've never suggested to a president that they could or should do that. Right, but could the President order someone buried alive? Rinse, rinse. Repeat. In his defense, John Yoo was better at this than Christino, that's for sure. Everything feels more expensive right now. That's why this matters.
Thom Tillis
TikTok Shop has a huge selection of
David Pakman
products with surprising deals. You don't expect affordable fines for everyday life. Download TikTok now. David Pakman show is an audience supported program and the best, most direct way to support the show is by becoming a member. @join pacman.com you'll get the daily bonus show, the daily commercial free show, and plenty of other great membership perks. Get the full experience by signing up@join pacman.com the pressure is getting to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. One of the things that is just kind of a reality, if you work for an incompetent, unhinged guy, you're going to end up in positions that are really difficult to justify because there really is no justification for them. And the way that this Iran war is being prosecuted is exactly one of those examples. Now, yesterday, Marco Rubio took questions from a bunch of reporters and the questions mostly all kind of got to the same underlying point, which is, did you guys think about this? Was there any forethought given to why and when and how with this entire operation? Now, we looked earlier already at this issue with the lack of evacuation of Americans from the affected countries and the fact that they didn't really make it a priority. And now Marco Rubio is going, well, we're trying to do it now. But in a moment of frustration, Marco Rubio goes, guys, Iran is run by lunatics, which of course is true, but it doesn't really answer any of the questions of Congress.
Marco Rubio
Our notification. Listen, let me explain to you guys this in simple English, okay? Iran is run by lunatics, religious fanatic lunatics. They have an ambition to have nuclear weapons. They intend to develop those nuclear weapons behind a program of missiles and drones and terrorism that the world will not be able to touch them for fear of those things. And this is the weakest they've ever been. Now is the time to go after them. The President made the decision to go after them. Take away their missiles, take away their navy, take away their drones, take away their ability to make those things so that they can never have a nuclear weapon. That's why the President made this decision. It was the right decision. And the world will be a safer place when these radical clerics no longer have access to these weapons.
David Pakman
You see now, you know, a lot of what he says there is true. Iran is run by radical people. Iran would love to have nuclear weapons. Many countries would. It's in their interest, certainly. But they are the weakest they have ever been. And that's why we're going in. The initial argument was they've already rebuilt their nuclear capabilities even though we supposedly obliterated them in over the summer, in July or whenever it was. So we have to go in and in a moment of frustration, again, Marco Rubio just lashing out and going, guys, Trump did it. Just let him do it. That's it. We don't want to be accountable. Another one of these Kafka esque lines. Remember the other day it was, we went in proactively, we went in proactively, defensively. That was the line two days ago. Now it's, we went preemptively in response to an opportunity.
Marco Rubio
Mr. Secretary, their criticism was on the timeline.
David Pakman
They said that Israel is dictating the
Marco Rubio
timeline for the United States.
David Pakman
As you know, several people on the
Donald Trump
right have also agreed with that.
David Pakman
How would you respond?
Marco Rubio
The United States made a decision under the President of the United States made a decision. This is intolerable. Iran cannot have these missiles, cannot have these drones, cannot threaten the world. The President said this is the weakest they've ever been. If we don't hit them now, a year from now, a year and a half from now, no one will be able to touch them and they'll be able to do whatever they want. And he made a decision to go, and he made a decision to go in a joint operation because they gave us the highest chance of success. And he made the decision to go first because he concluded that, that we were not going to get hit first. We were not going to absorb a blow from them. We were going to go first. He was not going to run the risk that they could attack us before we could hit them, because in addition to costing lives, it would undermine the effectiveness of our operations. All right, guys, I got to go.
David Pakman
Thank you. There you go. Quick, I got to get the hell out of here. We. We went in preemptively in response to an opportunity. Now, where it really got dicey for Marco was when a reporter said, okay, yesterday you said Israel was going to strike Iran, which is why we needed to get involved. And Rubio gets upset and he goes, that's not what I said. Your statement is false. Except we have the video.
Marco Rubio
Yesterday.
Thom Tillis
Yesterday you said.
David Pakman
Yesterday you talked about Israel. Mr. Secretary.
Marco Rubio
Mr. Secretary, please, guys, I can't hear him all.
Reporter
Yes, yesterday you told us that Israel was going to strike Iran and that that's why we needed to get involved. Today the President said that no, Iran was going to get.
Marco Rubio
Yeah, your statement is false. So that's not what I was asked. Very specifically, were you there yesterday?
Reporter
Yes, I asked the question.
Marco Rubio
No, did you. Were you the one that. Because somebody asked me a question, did we go in because of Israel? And I said, you asked me, are you from the follow up? And I said, no, I told you this had to happen. Anyway, the President made a decision, and the decision he made was that Iran was not going to be allowed to hide behind its ballistic missile program, that Iran was not going to be allowed to hide behind its ability to conduct these attacks. That decision had been made. The President systematically made a decision to systematically destroy this terroristic capability that they had. And we carried that out. I was very clear in that answer. This was a question of timing, of why this had to happen as a joint operation, not the question of the intent. Once the President made a decision that negotiations were not going to work, that they were playing us on the negotiations and that this was a threat that was untenable, the decision was made to strike them. That's what I said yesterday. And you guys need to play it. If you're going to play these statements, you need to play the whole statement.
David Pakman
We're going to play it. And here is Marco Rubio the day before.
Marco Rubio
The second question that been asked is, why now? Well, there's two reasons why now. The first is it was abundantly clear that if Iran came under attack by anyone, the United States or Israel or anyone, they were going to respond and respond against the United States. The orders had been delegated down to the field commanders. It was automatic and in fact it bear to be true because, because in fact, within an hour of the initial attack on the leadership compound, the missile forces in the south and in the north for that matter, had already been activated to launch. In fact, those had already been pre positioned. The third is the assessment that was made that if we stood and waited for that attack to come first before we hit them, we would suffer much higher casualties. And so the President made the very wide decision. We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action. We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces. And we knew that if we didn't preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties and perhaps even higher.
David Pakman
Listen, the additional context doesn't really change the gist of it. The reporter accurately laid it out. The reason for the timing was Israel was going to strike Iran and Trump determined that the US Needed to be involved. Really pretty straightforward. Finally, on the question, I'm going to play this again. This, this, we looked at this earlier, but I want to include it here. What about a plan to get Americans out of there? And he goes, well, we're working on it now, except now is too late, unfortunately.
Reporter
Was there a plan in place to evacuate Americans before the attack?
Marco Rubio
Well, that's the plan we're trying to carry out. The problem problem is, or the challenge we are facing is airspace closures. If a country closes their airport, for example, in some cases the airports have been hit. So the airport in Kuwait was hit. So if an airport's been attacked or the airspace is closed, then we can have the planes lined up to go, but we can't get them to land because we don't have the permissions to land there. So that's the challenge. But rest assured, we are confident that we are going to be able to assist every American. As I told you, right now we have about a little over 1500, maybe closer to 1600Americans requesting assistance. And we know that we're going to be able to help them. It's going to take a little time because we don't control the airspace closures. That said, there may be more people out there that need help. We need.
David Pakman
All right, so a lot of words to say, no, we didn't have a plan to evacuate them beforehand. We're trying to do the plan right now. It's interesting how even when you find marginally less incompetent people than Trump. And I would consider Rubio marginally less incompetent than Trump. Trump's lack of planning, foresight and thoughtfulness really does trickle down to everybody around him. And Marco Rubio now panicking to try to explain how is this all going so disastrously wrong? Donald Trump stroked out again on Truth Social as he looks around and sees that it is all coming crashing down. The Iran war, of course, is looking increasingly chaotic by the hour. Now concerns about thousands of Americans stranded in the Middle East. And instead of explaining the strategy, the barometer, the goalpost, the definition of success, Trump is sort of regressing to blaming Barack Obama and Joe Biden, which is what he always does. What is fascinating about what he posted, the Truth Social, is that not only is he slightly off, he gets it completely backwards with regard to why we're in this position in the first place. Let's put up on the screen what he said. Quote, if I didn't terminate Obama's horrendous Iran nuclear deal, Iran would have had a nuclear weapon three years ago. That was the most dangerous transaction we have ever entered into. And had it been allowed to stand, the world would be an entirely different place right now. You can blame Barack Hussein Obama and sleepy Joe Biden. Thank you, President Trump. This is not slightly off. This is the opposite of reality. And I sort of walked through it yesterday. The nuclear deal that Obama signed with Iran was designed to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. Now, it's possible that Iran was violating that agreement and moving full steam ahead on nuclear development, but there's no evidence of that. There is anecdotally some statements that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made at the time. They were completely unsubstantiated. And there is no serious assessment that Iran, while in the Obama nuclear deal, was violating the requirements of that deal. In other words, the we the ayatollah was still an extremist. Iran was still run by radicals. They were still in places chanting death to America. But we have no evidence that the Iran nuclear deal wasn't working. Trump came in and tore up the deal. He said it's because the deal wasn't working. But the reality is he tried to just rip up anything that Barack Obama did. That's why Iran restarted their nuclear program. You don't have to want Iran to have a nuclear weapon to recognize that if Trump rips up a deal you were adhering to, you would go, well, I guess I'll go back to developing nuclear weapons. Why wouldn't you? Just about any country would. That's what caused Trump to need to go in to, quote, obliterate the nuclear program last summer, which I guess he did, but it's back again and now he needs to go in. Except Marco Rubio is saying the reason we went in is not because Iran's nuclear program was developing, it's because Iran was particularly weak. So which is it? Trump also panicking as everyone realizes they didn't arrange to get Americans out of the region before the bombing started. Posting to Truth Social, quote, Since the launch of Operation Epic Fury, more than 9,000Americans have safely returned home from the Middle East. If you are a US Citizen in the Middle east and you want to come home, register with the State department@stepstate.gov the department will identify where you are, provide travel options. We are chartering flight, chartering flights free of charge and booking commercial options, which we expect will become increasingly available as time goes on. So the State Department is now scrambling to help thousands of Americans get out of the Middle East. And essentially the message is, if you are an American in the region and you want to come home, register and we'll try to get you out. As we are now five days into this thing. The war started before an evacuation plan was in place. More than 9,000Americans have already had to leave since the operation started. And this is the sort of failed logistical planning that a lot of other administrations would have considered. But Trump doesn't really care. You know, Trump, forget about Trump doesn't care if gas prices go up because of what he's doing. He didn't even care enough about getting Americans out to make the plan before the bombing started rather than after. Now on the bonus show today, we are going to talk about the new investigation in Minnesota that is fascinating into Gregory Bevino. We will talk about the Supreme Court considering making it a crime for any user of cannabis to own a gun. And Tesla is touting Robo taxis in California, but they never got the permits. What is Elon Musk doing? All of those stories on today's bonus show, sign up at Join Pacman Dotcom. It's the number one way to, to support the work that we are doing. And in addition to supporting our work, you get access to the bonus show. I want to say a huge thank you to Isabella Mercado and Mimi Trudeau, our newest members@join pacman.com join them and join me on the bonus show by signing up today.
Podcast Summary – The David Pakman Show: “MAGA’s Texas nightmare begins, prices spiking hard” (March 4, 2026)
In this insightful episode, David Pakman dives deep into the shifting political landscape in Texas, highlighting major Democratic gains and growing Republican anxiety. He covers key election results, the changing demographics and enthusiasm in Texas, and how these developments have broader implications for national politics. The episode then pivots to questions of competence and honesty in the Trump administration, particularly in the wake of military actions in Iran, surging prices, and the aftermath for Americans abroad. The show is packed with sharp analysis, memorable quotes, and candid assessments of chaotic political maneuvering.
Timestamps: 00:00–10:36
Democratic Turnout Surges:
James Talarico’s Underdog Campaign:
Republican Senate Runoff Chaos:
Structural Changes & Demographics:
If Texas Turns Blue—GOP Nightmare:
Timestamps: 10:36–18:26
Record Democratic Performances Nationally:
MAGA’s Response: Radicalize Rather Than Moderate
Betting Markets Panic:
Trump’s Negative Approval:
Timestamps: 18:26–25:30
Trump’s Lack of Planning:
Cognitive Lapses and Odd Moments:
Trump Admits Prices Will Rise from Iran War:
Timestamps: 31:13–33:36
Timestamps: 36:21–39:23
Thom Tillis Delivers Blistering Rebuke:
Dog and Goat Anecdotes—A Metaphor for Poor Leadership:
Timestamps: 40:35–44:06
Padilla’s Question & Noem’s Dodge:
Classic Deflection—John Yoo Analogy:
Timestamps: 47:13–53:36
Rubio Justifies the Attack:
Contradictory Explanations:
Ongoing Failure to Evacuate:
Trump’s Blameshifting on Nuclear Deal:
Failed Logistics:
James Talarico:
David Pakman on Republican panic:
Donald Trump’s Iran war rationale:
Pakman on price spike:
Thom Tillis on Kristi Noem:
This summary captures the main themes, key moments, and memorable exchanges from this high-stakes episode, providing a rich and engaging overview for listeners and non-listeners alike.