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- [00:00]
David Pakman
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- [00:20]
Lara Trump
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- [00:29]
David Pakman
Terms Donald Trump's inner circle is in full panic mode, trying to cover up what is becoming impossible to ignore. And Lara Trump is one of those people in full propaganda mode on TV insisting Trump is just sharper than ever. He's never been sharper, even as his Davos performance was confused and low energy and globally mocked. We are going to break down the psychology of this kind of cult level myth making and why it signals fear. Then a female reporter asked Trump basic foreign policy questions and he implodes. He can't explain why did you invite warmonger Vladimir Putin to an event about peace? When he's asked about buying Greenland, a ship that has long sailed, now he freezes and gives a meaningless answer. Performative geopolitics, yes, but demented as well. We will discuss. Plus the United States facing a major measles outbreak. Anti vax politics are a huge part of the story. Hundreds of cases, quarantines, isolation, schools affected. We were done with measles in the year 2000. And it is back. It is back again. We're also going to look at polling that shows 71% of Americans believe the country is out of control. But is it out of control because of Trump? Or is Trump the guy who they believe is going to get it back under control? And then a Fox guest admits the truth about the blanket tariffs. Surprise. They're not good. All of that and more today. Well, desperation is growing to cover up whatever is going on with Donald Trump. And there is a desperation every time Trump short circuits that is palpable. And even Trump's family is finding itself in panic mode over the obvious cognitive decline. I don't know what condition Trump has. It doesn't seem that the White House is going to tell us. They haven't told us almost anything about Trump's health until push comes to shove. And even then, often it's inaccurate. But we are now in the Midst of damage control propaganda, not neutral commentary and incomes. Lara Trump speaks to Laura Ingraham after Trump delivered this completely chaotic and rambling appearance. And she says it was dominant, it was brilliant. Even after he arrived late because of a problem with his plane, he did so well. This is reality inversion. Instead of not addressing the cognitive stuff or instead of saying his fine, he's fine, you give spin so exaggerated that it ends up highlighting how worried allies and families are about the perception of decline. If they weren't worried, she wouldn't be bending over backwards to say this was the most dominant performance he's ever had. Which of course it wasn't. Take a look at this, is that.
- [03:21]
Lara Trump
You have all these former Trump officials who I never even met in the White House in the first Trump term, but I guess they had some role. Stephanie Grisham, I wouldn't recognize her if I saw her on the street, but she's like, oh, the Trump speech shows us that he's slipping. Oh, that shows that we need to, you know, I'm just paraphrasing, you know, 25th amendment. Yeah, well, all you need to know is that close to 90%, I think of the signatures given during the Biden administration were done via auto pen. This president that we have, right, which.
- [03:53]
David Pakman
Of course has nothing to do. Whether that's even true, has nothing to do with the frequency with which presidents use the auto pen. But Biden using an auto pen doesn't mean Trump made any sense in Switzerland. He didn't. It has nothing to do with the auto pen a year and a half ago.
- [04:08]
Lara Trump
Now the 47th has all of his faculties about him. He literally had a three hour delay getting to Davos last night because there was a problem with the plane. He went there, he schooled every single person in that audience about how they ought to be running their countries, about why America is back. You saw it. I loved every single second of this. He exuded strength on the world stage, which is something we were lacking for far too long. They can talk all they want, but the proof is in the pudding. The American people feel it. You can see it with this president every single day.
- [04:38]
David Pakman
It's a little too much, Lara. It's a little too much. He schooled people. He told other people how to run their countries, which people love being told how to do. He ranted in a low energy way. It was both ranting and raving, but low energy. And the room laughed at him and otherwise sat in silence, horrified and confused by the things that he was saying, including by the way wrongly referring to Greenland as Iceland not once, not twice, but three times. Lara Trump truly seems to think that this was some incredible feat of public speaking and stamina and strength. This is the cult of personality myth making. This, this is how it works. No evidence, no metrics, no policy examples. It is grandiose hero worship. And she married into it after all of it. And you know, when they, when they become this hyperbolic, it's so extreme that it undermines credibility. Trump's almost 80. Any almost 80 year old that is president of the United States would probably be tired. That's like not really a big deal. And when you come in and you go, no one is more fit, no one is sharper, no one's been better. You only have to look at a video of Trump six months ago to realize he's been better. And then six months before that and a couple of years before that, and before you know it, he, he sounds kind of articulate, and now he doesn't make any sense with this diminished vocabulary, repetitive phrases and the entire thing. So nothing that Lara Trump is telling us is political messaging. It's just the construction of myths for cults. And when cognitive concerns rise, supporters end up having to pivot to this godlike framing. Oh, you're going to say he slowed down. I'm going to tell you that there's no one like him and he doesn't need to sleep and he gets a hole in one every. You know, this type of stuff, you hear about Kim Jong Un and previously heard about, about Kim Jong Il. It's the psychological mechanism of authoritarian fandom, which is you exaggerate the greatness to offset visible weakness that we all can see. And what you end up telling people is you can't believe your eyes when you hear Trump and he sounds disoriented. When you see Trump and he's swollen and sweaty and hunched over lectern and hinging at the waist in that weird forward position. Forget about everything your eyes and ears tell you. Just listen to Lara Trump and it is North Korea level leader worship. That's what it is. And they are terrified that the public narrative about his strength and vigor and vitality is slipping. I think the louder his family goes, he's never been sharper, which is so obviously not true, the worse it's actually going to get. Donald Trump is not bad big on female reporters. He likes talking about their appearance if he finds them attractive, but he doesn't like real serious questions from female reporters. And Kaitlan Collins from CNN is someone that regularly gets under Donald Trump's skin. She asked Trump a really great question, which is, on the one hand, you say we need Greenland because Russia might take it. We've got to. We need to take it before Putin takes it, because that would be very dangerous. But on the other hand, you've invited Putin to be on your Gaza Board of Peace, essentially asking, why would you put a warmonger who you're worried will steal even more territory on a board that's going to talk about peace? It doesn't make sense. And Trump goes, well, what am I going to put babies on the board?
- [08:13]
Lara Trump
You talked about being concerned, Mr. President, about Russia trying to come and take over Greenland. If you're worried that Putin would do something like that, we. Why invite him to join your Board of Peace?
- [08:23]
Donald Trump
Because we want everybody. We want all nations. We want all nations where people have control, people have power. That way, we're never going to have a problem. This is the greatest board ever assembled, and everybody wants to be on it. But, yeah, I have some controversial people on it, but these are people that get the job done. These are people that have tremendous influence. But all babies on the board wouldn't be very much. So he was invited. He's accepted. Many people have accepted, I think. I don't know of anybody that hasn't accepted, but it's going to be great. I think the Board of Peace will be the most prestigious board ever, and it's going to get a lot of work done that the United Nations.
- [09:01]
David Pakman
Nothing more prestigious than putting Putin the warmonger on a board of peace. You know, there's a better way that she could have framed this question, which is, sir, why would you have an active warmonger invading a neighboring nation on a board about peace? He's currently invading Ukraine. Why would he be on a board that's going to be about peace? It is, of course, a devastating logic trap. Trump says Putin is a territorial threat with regard to Greenland, but then says, come help us administer the peace Council, the peace board. That's a direct contradiction. And Trump never resolves it. That's why his answer collapses. It's, we're not going to just have babies on the board. And he reframes authoritarian warmongers as people who get jobs done. Which is pretty revealing, because what job is Putin getting done? He's invading Ukraine. I think it's also reminiscent of Trump's history of authoritarian admiration. He just. He prefers strong men who get things done, even if the things are illegal by international law, even if the things are disgusting. And lead to death. And there's this incoherent foreign policy fear plus appeasement at the same time. One more of these. We looked at this one yesterday in the context of Greenland. It's another yes, no policy question. Kaitlan Collins says, is the United States securing Greenland, getting Greenland, part of this deal you've supposedly negotiated? It's a yes or no question. Trump doesn't answer it, yes or no include you?
- [10:27]
Lara Trump
Does it still includes, does it still include the United States having ownership of Greenland like you've said you wanted?
- [10:36]
Donald Trump
It's a long term deal. It's the ultimate long term deal. And I think it puts everybody in a really good position, especially as it pertains to security and minerals and everything else.
- [10:50]
Lara Trump
How long is it, Mr. President?
- [10:51]
David Pakman
Spoken to other European leaders? Have you really spoken to other European leaders?
- [10:57]
Donald Trump
Yes, I have.
- [10:58]
Lara Trump
How long would the deal be, Mr. President?
- [11:02]
Donald Trump
Infinite. There's no time limit. It's forever.
- [11:07]
Lara Trump
And how would you ratify the deal?
- [11:09]
Donald Trump
It's signed forever.
- [11:11]
Lara Trump
But you haven't signed anything yet, right?
- [11:13]
Donald Trump
It's a deal that's forever.
- [11:16]
David Pakman
Anyway. All right, anyway, so we did the analysis yesterday. As you can see, he doesn't answer these questions directly. It's a yes, no question. Does the deal you signed, which you, after months of saying the US Must have Greenland and threatening tariffs if the US doesn't get Greenland, you've now said, we've got a deal, so I don't need to do the tariffs. So did you get Greenland? And Trump goes, well, it's a long term deal. It's a long term deal. He floats acquiring foreign territory, one of the biggest geopolitical moves imaginable. He says it absolutely is a requirement for the national security of the United States. And when he's pressed, he can't even explain whether the plan exists, how it would be ratified, and is not even remotely able to say, yes, it includes getting Greenland because of course it doesn't. And it's a mirror of the concept of a plan. There is no real content world shaking ideas, threatening alliances and moving pieces all over the place. And it's just performative geopolitics with some kind of, you know, punchline that he thinks he's going to get. He wants to buy Greenland, but he can't explain whether he's actually buying Greenland. Like it? It's beyond belief. And when it comes from a female reporter, he likes it even less. Later on the show, the measles outbreak, guys, it's a disaster. It's a disaster. I recently had a conversation with our pediatrician about traveling with the baby who's too little to be given the MMR vaccine. And we talked about the measles outbreak. I'll tell you what pediatrician said. And we've got so many more things coming up. Remember that we do a daily newsletter. It's free and it's on substack substack.david pakman.com and I would love it. I genuinely would love it if you signed up for that. Check it out. Quick break. Back after this One thing that's become impossible to ignore with mainstream AI chat bots is how aggressively they police what you are allowed to ask. 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The link is in the description Staying focused while you work can be difficult, especially for folks with ADHD. Maybe you've tried listening to music on YouTube or ambient videos background noise, but the sounds in the music weren't designed for folks focus and they end up distracting you. Our sponsor Brain FM is a music app specifically designed to support focus with music. Designed by musicians working together with neuroscientists and because of Brain FM's unique audio technology designed to change the patterns in your brain, Brain FM is the only music app funded by the National Science Foundation. The app includes task specific modes like deep work, creative and motivation. It has a dedicated ADHD mode designed for brains that benefit from additional stimulation. And what really sets Brain FM apart is the research behind it. They published a peer reviewed study showing their patented music technology increases activity in attentional networks and improves performance on attention based tasks, especially among people with ADHD symptoms. If you're looking for a science backed alternative to generic focus music. Brain FM is worth trying. You can get 30 days free at brain.fm/pacman by this point I know many of you know that this is primarily an audience supported program and I would love it for you to join the ranks of membership by signing up@join pacman.com we did do a one day membership drive on Tuesday. Sort of commemorating in a. I mean listen, you could say it's commemorating something negative in that Trump is president or commemorating the slightly less negative thing that we only have three years to go rather than four. In any case, if you missed the membership discount on Tuesday and you want to take advantage of it, just send us an email info@david pakman.com this weekend will be the end for that, but we'll still give you that code. Glad to do it. We have a story that we have been covering but is mostly flying under the radar and it really shouldn't be. And it is the story of a growing measles outbreak in the United States and accelerating measles outbreak in the United States. In South Carolina alone, officials are now confirming 88 new cases. This brings the total to 646 cases of measles. Hundreds of people are under quarantine. Schools and colleges are affected. Grocery stores have become exposure sites. And this is not isolated because the United States is now one year into continuous measles transmission. If that continues, the United States risks losing measles elimination status, which was achieved in the year 2000, which would mean that measles is no longer a rare import. It would be endemic again, constantly circulating like it was decades ago. This is a disease we had defeated and it is coming back to life. Here's CNN with just like a brief, brief note about this day marks one.
- [17:26]
Lara Trump
Year since the start of the measles outbreak in West Texas and a year on Measles cases are still surging across the country with new cases reported every week since then. At least 171 measles cases in just the first two weeks of this year reported, which is nearly as many as the average annual total in the 25 years since measles was declared eliminated in the US over the weekend, Clemson University in South Carolina saw its first case. The university says that that person has been isolated and they're now doing contact tracing to determine who else was exposed. South Carolina has reported 558 cases and nearly half of them reported in just the last week.
- [18:08]
David Pakman
All right, so last year the US recorded more than 2200 measles cases. That's the highest since 1992. 33 years ago, two kids died in Texas, three people died nationally. That is as many deaths as the previous 25 years combined. So far this year, in just the first two weeks of January, 171 cases in nine states. And the key fact, key fact. Okay, think carefully about this one. More than 95% of cases are in unvaccinated people. Measles is one of the most contagious viruses known. If you're unvaccinated and exposed, the odds are really high that you get it. And that brings us to an uncomfortable truth. What the United States is dealing with right now is optional. Measles vaccination has also become effectively optional. Let me explain. Schools require it on paper, but exemptions are unfortunately too easy to get in a lot of states. If there's a state that has a religious exemption, you can basically get it. How can. You could just say here, this is what my religion teaches me, or it's based on my religion. You don't even have to justify the teachings or the sacred texts. The sacred texts. Anybody can just generate a sacred text. What does that even really mean? Philosophical exemptions exist. Paperwork loopholes exist. And the predictable result is an under vaccinated population in certain pockets by choice, not by accident. And measles immediately exploits that. Before the vaccine, measles infected a lot of people every year, and it caused a lot of deaths, and it caused even more hospitalizations, and it caused even more permanent complications like brain damage and hearing loss. And that's why the vaccine was this huge triumph. And after widespread vaccination cases collapsed by 2000, we considered it eliminated in the United States. What changed wasn't the virus, it was the vaccination. And the MMR vaccine is not a new thing. It's not experimental. It's been used for decades. One dose, 93% effective at preventing measles. Two doses, 97% effective at preventing measles. Serious side effects, very rare. Way rarer than measles itself. And the consensus under Trump and under Bobby has been eroded. Trump spent years flirting with anti vaccine rhetoric long before COVID He amplified junk science about autism and vaccines and treated vaccine skepticism as a legitimate debate and elevated people like Bobby and others who undermine childhood vaccination. And even without banning the vaccine, we see the damage is very real. And we have a president that has turned public health into a culture war. I recently had a conversation with our pediatrician because we're going to to be doing some international travel to Europe soon. I mentioned this thing I'm going to be doing in Portugal. And our pediatrician said, listen, quite frankly, without getting very political, I think the, the baby can't get the MMR yet. She's too little. And the pediatrician said, I would be more worried if you were going to Texas or, you know, this part of South Carolina, that's a problem. Or I would be more worried if you were going there than going to Europe. And in fact, I looked at the measles vaccination rate in Portugal, and it is higher than the average in the United States. The blue states have a very high measles vaccination rate. So it's similar to just being in the state of New York or the state of California or the state of Massachusetts, Connecticut, etc. But that's a recommendation from a pediatrician, which is, I'm less worried about you going to Portugal. Everybody in Portugal is vaccinated, not so much in some of these anti vax enclaves. So we'll see if the United States loses its measles elimination status. But that kind of misses the point because we have a deeper problem here, which is that a country with massive, massive resources, we don't. There's no, there's no pressure for us to have measles here. We are failing in basic public health. We have the tools, we have the money. But for political reasons, a bunch of people have been convinced don't use the tools that we have. So the outbreak didn't have to happen. It's not a scientific mystery why it's happening. There's no technological hurdle. We have leadership that isn't willing to say, hey, the vaccines save lives. You should do what has been recommended medically for a really long time. Safe vaccine, effective vaccine. And then they are pretending that that not doing that doesn't have consequences. We are seeing the consequences. It's optional. It's disgusting. It's terrible. All right. I told you earlier this week we were going to talk about the concept of the United States as out of control. And the headline number is a striking number. 71% of the country says that the country is out of control under Donald Trump. But out of control can mean different things to different people. For some people, that means out of control. Because of Donald Trump, institutions are being ignored and norms shredded and allies alienated and military power used impulsively. For other people, it means out of control. But Trump is here to fix it. Trump is here to get it back under control. He's going to get the border under control and crime and men and women's sports and, you know, all of this stuff. So the same words, is the country out of control? Can mean very different things to different people. The diagnosis of how and why and what to do is different. And so this is why I'm skeptical of treating the poll as some kind of unified anti Trump moment. Even among Trump voters, about half say things are out of control. But I don't read that. As they say, it's out of control under Trump. They're saying we need Trump because it's out of control. It's out of control because of Biden, and Trump's here to fix it now. There's also something deeper going on. A political psychologist named Bob Altmire found that roughly 30% of any society is authoritarian by their nature. They're just predisposed to be authoritarians. They're not necessarily dumber. They're not necessarily less informed. They might be, they might not be, but they have lower empathy. They are more comfortable with hierarchy. They're more comfortable with punishment as a means of control, and they're more comfortable with force. Those people do not experience out of control the same way that everybody else does. Disorder doesn't scare them because of suffering. It scares them because it feels like weakness. And weakness, in their view, demands dominance. And that's what Trump brings. Now, let me give you, like, a little dose of cynicism from me. I don't think Americans are anywhere near an effective mass revolt or a general strike or sustained resistance. Not even close. I wrote about this in my book. There's a whole chapter about resistance methods that are more than, you know, voting and signing petitions. Most people still have enough to lose a mortgage, health insurance, or a job that's barely holding things together. But it kind of is that they are not going to get out there and participate. And then others are so close to the edge that they miss one paycheck and they end up homeless. They can't afford to rebel either. And this is almost by design. Historically, real mass action doesn't happen when things are uncomfortable. It happens when people feel they don't have anything left to lose. We're simply not there. And we have to acknowledge that. That's part of why we haven't seen a broader rebellion against what Donald Trump is doing. So Americans feel like the country is out of control. They don't necessarily agree on why. They definitely don't agree on who's going to fix it and get it back under control. But what worries me the most isn't that Americans think the country is out of control is that we no longer have a shared definition of what it means for the country to be under control. I'll give you an example. Is widespread deployment of ice goons, pepper balling, dragging people, all of this stuff, including US Citizens, is that an example of the country being out of control, or is it what we need to get the country back under control? Obviously, the latter is not for me. But a lot of the magazines would say no. The ice goons and the videos, that's not evidence of being out of control. That's getting us back under control. And when a society can't agree on whether the chaos is the cure the disease, which is sort of where we are right now, it becomes fuel for someone else's power, in this case Donald Trump's. And if you look at history, this is how strong men stabilize themselves. Disorder doesn't discredit the leader, it discredits the systems around them. So Trump's anti, anti institutional stances and Naito can't be trusted. And you know, law enforcement, the FBI and all this different whoever, right? They're the enemy. And the chaos proves that you need Trump to fix all of it. So the chaos, we have to acknowledge, isn't a bug for Trump, it's a feature. The confusion keeps people emotionally reactive. It keeps politics fragmented and fragmented. The societies rather than organize, they just argue with each other. And that's what we're seeing. Another uncomfortable truth. Americans still believe that they have something to lose, and that's why the anger shows up in polls rather than in action. Real mass resistance begins when people are beyond frustrated and when there is zero stability and we are not there yet. And to be honest, I hope we don't get there because a lot of people will suffer if we do so. Out of control becomes a justification for action when people feel they do not have anything to lose. History is clear about the directions that this can go, and it is terrifying. Hopefully it doesn't get there. Democrats take the House in November. Trump accomplishes nothing for the following two years. And then we do away with maga once and for good. Optimistic, cautiously optimistic. Things are still expensive in this economy. Americans are feeling it. But one thing that doesn't have to cost a lot anymore is a quality heat hearing aid. Our sponsor, MD Hearing, makes high quality, easy to use. Rechargeable hearing aids with exceptional sound quality that are personalized to your hearing profile. And MD Hearing just made their Neo rechargeable digital hearing aids. Only $297 a pair. Less than 10% of the prices of typical hearing aids from brick and mortar and hearing clinics. The NEO fits inside your ear. No one will even know it's there. Plus Maryland Hearing just launched the NEO xs, Maryland Hearing's smallest hearing aid ever. I have a family friend who's been using MD Hearing for years. She loves it, loves how she can get expert advice any time from MD Hearing's audiologist, for example, if she needs help adjusting it. Maryland Hearing was founded by an ENT surgeon who saw how many of his patients needed hearing aids and couldn't afford them. Terrible. He made it his mission to develop a quality hearing aid that anybody could afford. Go to shop MD Hearing Dotcom. Use the code PACMAN to get a pair of hearing AIDS for just $297 plus you'll get an extra charging case for free. The link is in the description well, it brings me no pleasure to tell you that the world is moving on from Donald Trump and he is increasingly alone and isolated, left behind as the global community, including our Western allies, are simply sick of him and they are moving on. There's a story that the Trump White House keeps telling itself, which is that the world is scared of Trump. And because the world is scared of Trump, because he's unpredictable and because he'll do anything at any time, allies are going to fall in line and the tariffs and the threats and the brute force is going to bend countries to Trump's will. But the reality is very different, and we saw it quite frankly during the Davos speech that Donald Trump gave earlier this week, where everybody's just kind of like laughing Trump off and barely paying attention to him, the truth is that the world is not rallying behind Donald Trump and they are not bending to his will because they are afraid. The world is quietly and deliberately moving on without Donald Trump. While Trump has even in the last week escalated tariff threats and demanded territory from Greenland, which he confused as Iceland, during his Davos speech, he's picked fights with allies. The European Union just signed a massive free trade agreement with the Mercosur bloc of South America. That's my birth country of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, over 700 million people. It's one of the largest trade zones on earth. And the way that European leaders are framing it is not this is about growth or this is about efficiency. They said this is a choice against tariffs, against isolation, and against power politics. So what they're doing is they are building an alternative to working with Trump and sidelining the United States. I'm not happy about this. This is bad. I, you know, even if I just think selfishly, as someone invested in American index funds with my retirement account and hoping that that continues to go up in value when global alliances start to exclude the United States and American companies, that's not good for me. This brings me no pleasure. It's embarrassing. And while Donald Trump is announcing new tariffs on Europe over Greenland, tariff on French wine because of the Macron, doesn't want to be part of Trump's Gaza peace summit or whatever, Meanwhile, the European Union is deepening ties to South America. And as Trump threatens allies, Europe is locking in long term partnerships that are going to last longer than Donald Trump. This is the strategy that they are now employing. Look north here in the United States at Canada, one of our closest allies, maybe the closest ally. Canada just cut a major deal with China. And they didn't do it quietly, they did it publicly. The Canadian prime minister openly said, our relationship with China, meaning Canada's relationship with China is more predictable than Canada's relationship with the United States under Trump. That is extraordinarily disturbing. That should stop people cold. Canada doesn't love Beijing. They are doing it because Washington under Trump is unreliable. Tariffs one day, threats the next. Trade agreements are on. They're off. It's all contingent on Trump's mood. How much ketchup did he have this morning? What? How does he feel? And so Canada is starting to recalibrate and they're diversifying, they're preparing for a future where maybe the US Returns to being a stable partner once Trump is gone, but maybe it doesn't. So it's not rebellion. They're not loudly doing it, they're just adapting. And then meanwhile, Trump is screaming about this and screaming about that. And then of course, Trump saying, we're going to tariff Denmark, we're going to tariff other European countries unless we are able to buy Greenland. And he's trying to use economic punishment to seize territory from a Naito ally. And the response is that countries don't like it. France, Germany, Sweden, Britain, they're all going now. That doesn't make any sense. We're not going to do that. We're not going to support that. We're not going to allow that. They're not going to be blackmailed. Europe will respond together because Trump is crossing a line. And you've even got Trump allies in Europe breaking with them. Republicans in Congress are saying this could get really bad. Earlier this week, I told you about right wing radio host Eric Erickson saying this Greenland stuff is too much. This is even if Republicans have convinced themselves Europe doesn't matter. Europe does matter. And this is too much. You look at markets, they're very rattled. Up, down, up, down. 900 point Dow reduction on Tuesday. Trade deals are collapsing. Naito's cohesion is more of a question mark. And allies are just planning what to do next. So this is what isolation looks like. And the key point is that strong leaders shape the system around them. Weak leaders force the system to exclude them. And that is what Donald Trump is doing right now. It's what's happening today. The EU is not waiting for Trump to leave. They are just saying, wow, maybe American voters are going to do this again with someone like Trump and we are going to hedge our bets and make ourselves less reliant on the United States. This is terrible for America. And I know that there's this thing where a lot of these right wingers, they love to just ridicule Europe. Oh, you know, it's like Italian guys with tight, tight suits drinking espresso and people taking naps in Spain and not even working a full day. And the French who don't even work however many hours a week, and they try to just go, we don't care. We're different here. Well, we should care because we are extraordinarily interdependent with a lot of these allies. And the fact that our allies aren't begging for anything, they're just going around us should really scare us because once they realize they have alternatives, the quiet kind of dangerous shift is that they just go away and they make other deals and that they're fine, but that under Trump, we are unpredictable. And when that predictability disappears, our influence also goes with it. So we are at the, at the risk of our primarily putting ourselves at risk. We are ignoring danger signals that will be very difficult to undo. And even if Trump leaves, I don't know that all of these new trade agreements get reversed and everything goes back to the way it was. I think the damage has been done. And we actually have an example of a Fox guest admitting that this is a real problem. I want to talk about that next. This is, I love this. This is one of those moments where the mask kind of slips. And I love that it happens on Fox News, Fox Business, I guess. During a discussion about Donald Trump's tariffs in the stock market with Fox Business host Stuart Varney, Stewart's guest goes completely off script and kind of accidentally tells the truth. And it's not like reframing. It's just reality. And what his guest essentially says is that if The Supreme Court rejected Trump's tariff strategy. Markets would be happy. It would be good for stock markets if that happened. And what this guest is acknowledging is that the best thing for the American economy would be for a court to, to say no to Donald Trump. Take a listen. Ironic, isn't it, that the President's proposing.
- [36:32]
Fox Business Guest
Tariffs on reluctant Europeans who are reluctant to support us on Greenland. At the same time, our Supreme Court could strike down the whole idea of tariffs. You know, that's, that's correct. And I think the market would actually be quite happy if the Supreme Court rejected Trump's current tariff strategy, the tariffs that he imposed. I think it would be a positive for the market. It would curb Trump's ability to surprise markets, to surprise business leaders. And that would mean less uncertainty. That'd be better for the US Economy, believe it or not. Wouldn't there be some chaos on the market in a ruling like that? Well, because we're going to give back all the money. Well, you know, that's about 200 billion that or so that they took in tariff revenue. That's, that's quite manageable. The Supreme Court might also add that the US treasury can keep that tariff revenue at the same, same time, sort of like a compromise. And let's not forget how damaging Trump is stressing affordability. Okay. With the upcoming midterms. And my goodness, tariffs, they don't reduce prices. If anything, they put upward pressure on consumer prices. And look at that 10 year treasury yield, 4.3% off almost. So we've looked at the return of a 30 year mortgage yield above 6%. That's not helping affordability on the housing front.
- [37:54]
David Pakman
This is not the analysis you typically hear on Fox News or Fox Business. And you can tell that the host there, Stuart Varney, didn't really expect this and he couldn't spin it into 4D chess by Trump. So they ended up just moving on. The devastation that this implies is significant. Trump's tariffs were sold to us as strength and toughness and America first leverage that would put us back in the driver's seat. But even Trump friendly analysts know that these are chaotic tariffs. Markets don't fear high tariffs nearly as much as they fear unpredictability. And Trump's tariff policy is totally unpredictable. Threats one day, reversal the next. We've been doing this since April 1st of last year. New tariffs announced on social media. They're delayed, they're reinstated, then they're expanded. Then Trump says it'll be tariffs in exchange for Greenland or it'll be tariffs in Exchange for the Nobel Peace Prize or whatever. If you're a business, you can't plan around that. Investors can't price it. Supply chains can't adapt to that. So what does the market want? It wants a Trump that is constrained, that is not going to be doing this tariff stuff. It wants rules. It wants a process and predictability. And in a sense, a market might prefer bad policy to random policy or policy that makes a 180 every single day or every other week. And that's why they are saying the markets would celebrate if the Supreme Court were to say no more tariffs. Not because the court is anti Trump or the guest is anti Trump, because the whiplash is crazy. Trump's own supposed allies understand that his economic strategy is not a strategy, its impulse and its grievance. And it is dominance theater masquerading as policy. We were told many times Trump's erratic nature keeps allies on their toes, and it makes them fall in line and it makes them work with the United States, be more willing to accommodate the United States. The opposite is happening since Trump took office has been the opposite as the US Is increasingly excluded again and again and again from these deals, as Trump makes the United States more difficult to deal with, and so they have trouble defending this policy. Even on Fox News, you get rid of the slogans, and what's left is higher prices, market volatility up and down, and global retaliation and circumvention of the United States. So when we hear a Fox guest go, oh, it would be a huge relief to the stock market if Trump were blocked, it's, it's very far from a gaffe. It's not what you would expect on Fox, but it is a confession that the economy is not stabilized by this policy. And if you are an average person concerned about housing prices or meal prices or education or whatever it is, there is no way to argue we have benefited greatly from this Trump tariff policy. And I've challenged MAGA people before on that, which is, tell me, who is really happy about these tariffs? Is it manufacturers? Is it service providers? Is it people who work in a certain industry or live in a certain part of the country? There is no constituency that is benefiting from these tariffs or believes that this is going to bring prosperity to the country and the markets would like it to be done away with. Fascinating stuff. You know, I'll often talk to my friends about what do we really think is private on our computers and on our phones. And many people believe that their emails are genuinely private. And it turns out that that a lot of the email services are looking at your emails and can look at your emails even after you have deleted them. Which is why I recommend our sponsor Start Mail, a trusted name in secure email for more than a decade. Start Mail is based in the Netherlands. Netherlands is known for very strong data protection laws. Your emails won't be scanned, your emails won't be tracked. Start Mail will block those invasive tracking pixels so you won't be monitored by companies and by hackers. And when you delete an email in Start Mail, it is gone for good. Your data stays private. They are all in on this. With a ton of features including aliases to keep you anonymous, strong encryption with your emails, it is super easy to move to Start Mail. It's a few clicks. Migrate your emails, migrate your contacts. You really can't go wrong. Try Start Mail for yourself completely free for seven days at start mail.com/pacman, which will also give you 50% off your first year. The link is in the description. All right. Friday feedback this week and boy, oh boy, are some people upset. Remember that you can email in any time info at David Pakman Dotcom. We will also feature Reddit posts, tik tok comments, YouTube comments, Instagram comments, faxes and physical letters will not be included going forward. I am so sorry. We just can't do it. All right. Reggae for President Posted to the subreddit about my interview with Trump supporting soybean farmer Caleb Ragland and wrote the soybean farmer interview was inferior, infuriating. He admitted to voting for Trump three times even after acknowledging that in 2018, Trump caused exports to China to go from 33% to 25% of the domestic crop. I've lost hope with voters like this. He identified the problem, identified the cause of the problem, yet he still voted for the person causing the problem. Why are people like this? You know what his policies were and how they affected you. Yet this genius said, give me more of that. Yeah, listen, I like Caleb, the soybean farmer on a personal level, I think when he has testified before Congress to the specifics of how the tariff policy is destroying farmers, he does a great job. It was definitely jarring to hear him go, listen, I, I like other stuff Trump has done, so I don't know, he destroyed my business again. But I still support this guy and, and sort of said a lot of the farmers do. It's conservative parts of the country and yada yada. Listen, I think the important lesson there is for us in thinking of strategy, like if we, if we just zoom out. What's the point of learning about all this stuff? When I interview a white supremacist and we try to figure out, how did they become a white supremacist? And we learn, wow, most of these guys got sucked in at a vulnerable time when they sought community and answers as to why they weren't doing well. Oh, that's interesting. And then why do the people get sucked into the manosphere? Very similar situation. And then how is it that somebody whose business has been destroyed still can't say, hey, this isn't for me. What is the point of learning all this stuff? It's that we want to figure out how to win. We want to figure out how to win elections so that we can put in place the policies that are going to be better for people. And so, in thinking about how to win, what did we learn from hearing from Caleb Ragland, whose business has been hurt by Trump and he still voted for Trump three times, we learned that we are not going to win elections by convincing people like Caleb to vote differently. It's not going to happen. If you want to argue with Caleb at Thanksgiving and go, he destroyed your business and you're still voting for him, have at it. But as far as a wholesale strategy, we need other approaches. I've always favored the approach of getting people who aren't voting to understand the importance of voting. What would be easier? What would be easier? Convincing Caleb Ragland, who is the national poster child for how Trump destroyed an industry, who still is supporting Trump. Is it easier to convince him, hey, change your mind. Or to find five people who are not currently active voters who are aware of something in their community that is making them struggle and connecting the dots and going, hey, you know what? This thing you're struggling with, it relates to who our elected leaders are. Just start voting. You don't even need to convince them about who to vote for because they already would know because they've identified the problem. You know, you can deal with this issue, at least in part by voting and choosing who represents you. That is a much better strategy. If there is no other takeaway from the Caleb Ragland interview than that, that would be. That would be enough. That is. That is a big one. Jay Hulk isn't happy with me. Jay Hulk wrote in on Instagram and said, I wish you would state the facts right. If you want to be posting things and saying things, please get your facts right and say it right and be true to it. Don't make up stories like a Democrat. Well, as usual, as I like to say, give me an example. Give me an example of what it is that I am getting so wrong, and then I will correct it. We issue corrections on this show. I don't run and hide. If I get something wrong, I will correct it. But very often, don't say lies like a Democrat. First of all, I'm not a Democrat, but I don't know if that really matters. It's sort of, you know, whatever, but tell me what I got wrong and then I will gladly correct it. Similarly, but differently, Justin had a more homophobic message for me. Justin wrote in on Instagram and said, david, it raises some red flags that you're a power bottom twink beta male because you can't grow a real beard. You have a pencil neck and you're built like a women. A women. That's an interesting one. The only thing I have to say about this one is that finally, after a decade, I got homophobic hate mail that uses the right your. You would have. I would have expected this to be put in the pile of thousands where it's the wrong your, but at least they've got you apostrophe ari More than. More than I can usually expect. All right, and then finally, from the critical ones, EC Parrish wrote in and said, fuck your bonus show, Pacman. Listen, antagonists of this show, they don't like the bonus show.
- [48:22]
Fox Business Guest
Oh, the bonus show where you want to make money. Everybody else that makes money to fund themselves is bad.
- [48:27]
David Pakman
That's Alex Jones. That's not AI that is. That is real Alex Jones. He hates the bonus show. What I am here to tell you is that the bonus show will continue until the morale improves. And if, if you didn't take advantage of the membership discount on Tuesday and you really want to just shoot me an email, say, david, give me that code and I will, I will let you know. All right, let's get into some more substantive stuff. Flexicles wrote in on Spotify and Sundays, after my 16 hour shift today, I'll look forward to getting in line to get my piece of chicken, my one floret of broccoli and my tortilla. Maybe they'll give me a burrito tortilla by accident. Then I could feed my family for a whole month. Yeah, you know, they're what. What they're referring to is this statement that was made by the Trump administration how they are running simulations to figure out how can you feed someone a meal for three bucks, and for three bucks, you should be able to get a piece of chicken. A piece of broccoli and a teeny tiny widdle widdle tortilla. And a lot of people mocked this by putting together AI imagery of what that looks like on a plate. And it's pretty depressing. There's another aspect to this I think that people are also missing, which is it doesn't, it's not even like you should really be having more of the vegetables in order for it to really be what we might consider a more well rounded meal. One piece of chicken and a floret of broccoli and a tiny tortilla. It's not even really that great from a health standpoint. Never mind the fact that it's like probably not really enough food. Completely just out of touch, pathetic. Horrible nutrition advice coming out of this administration. One of the things that maybe is useful is you don't need to second guess whether you should listen to this administration about nutrition advice. Just don't. There's plenty of other free resources that are much more informative. PJ Gaddo wrote in and said, david, I listen to your show pretty much every day. There is something incredibly calming in your voice and your reporting that makes me want to keep coming back to your content every day. Thank you for all that you do. I really appreciate that. You know, we get a lot of negative messages here. Lot of negative messages. And it's nice every once in a while just to be reminded there are some people who like the show. Apparently not a lot of them, but there are some people. Em Ray's mom also wrote in and said, david, I can't do the membership right now, but I was wondering if you have a way to donate whatever we are able to support your platform. Listen, if things are that tight, MRE's mom, don't donate anything. Okay? I. We believe that something like half of 1% of our audience supports this show. That would be like 1 out of 200 or something like that. The whole point of the show is for it to be available to everybody, everybody. And that's why we make the show available for free. Don't, don't worry about contributing to this show if things are that tight and there are so many ways that cost nothing to support the show. You subscribe on YouTube, you share a piece of content, you like it, you tell a friend about it. We. I don't need anybody's last dollar here. I understand what's going on in the economy. I understand that Trump promised prices would go down and they've gone up. I get it, I get it. Okay. The suss wrote in and said the following this season of America is extreme. My anxiety is through the roof and my compassion for those that are hurt and suffering is so strong. Yet I am filled with worry and helplessness. For the last six years, I've listened to David, which helped me navigate through those feelings. Though I deeply appreciate David and his work and what he continues to offer us, even he can't ease this terrible feeling I have. The country is spinning out of control and something needs to be done before it snaps for good. Well, I agree. I agree I can't wish it all away as much as I wish I could. And a couple of the things that are really important in times like these are Number one, we do need a goal and a target. And right now the immediate goal and target is we got to get Republicans out of power, at least in the House in November. That's coming up. And we also need community. And hopefully, even if I can't make Trump go away and fix all the problems we have, hopefully the show at least provides some semblance of community to people so that we can be together and plan for what the next steps are. We've got a phenomenal bonus show for you today. You can sign up@join pacman.com People have been asking about my one Twitter 2029 shirt. It's just a little something we offer on our store. You can check it out. Store.davidpakman.com we'll see you on the bonus show and I'll be back Monday.