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- [00:01]
David Pakman
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- [00:58]
Lauren
uh,
- [00:59]
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- [01:27]
David Pakman (Main Commentary)
The State of the Union addresses tonight. Many of you don't plan to watch, many of you do. Either way, we should be prepared for the lies and the gaslighting and what certainly will be another round of if it's bad, blame Biden or Obama and if it's good, Trump gets the credit. We heard from Caroline Levitt, Trump's press secretary, previewing the State of the Union and that is exactly the plan that she is laying out, humiliating herself on Fox News and in front of reporters. We are also going to talk about a scary moment where Donald Trump appeared completely disoriented in exactly the way they claimed Biden was disoriented. But right wing media is completely silent. JD Vance resurfaces with another reminder as to why they try to prevent him from speaking publicly too too much because he's very, very bad at it. And another dust up between Donald Trump and Gavin Newsom raises the sundowning question as Trump's reading abilities are back in focus, what is the next eight months look like leading up to the midterms? Well, a lot of it is going to be determined by what Happens over the next 24 to 48 hours. All of that today. Donald Trump is going to step up to the lectern in the House of Representatives tonight and attempt to rewrite reality. During his State of the Union address, he is going to describe strength where there is actually instability. He is going to claim prosperity when working families are very much struggling. He is going to claim a united country where I can't think of a period where the country was more depressed, divided. And so before that starts tonight, whether you plan to watch or not, we want to ground ourselves in what is actually true. What is true is that Trump is a liar. His record shows it. He promised health care reform. Americans are still rationing medications. He promised lower costs, but families are still looking at grocery prices and saying the numbers are up, not down. Trump said he would bring stability and but chaos is just following him around everywhere. But in addition to being a liar, Trump is also a failure because his plans haven't materialized. The beautiful health care replacement never appeared. The cost of living solution never materialized, and the country is more polarized than ever. And then expect Trump to use the language of authoritarianism. Loyalty tests, attacks on judges and the media, praise for strongmen, casual talk about suspending rights. That is modern fascism. It is not tanks in the streets, but it is normalizing power grabs and cruelty. And as Americans are trying to make ends meet and they want health care that they can afford, they want groceries that don't wipe out their paychecks. They want ice raids out of their neighborhoods. Most Americans do. Do they want the detention camps to be closed and money to stop hemorrhaging on that? They want crimes against children prosecuted no matter who commits them. Is it Democrats? Is it Republicans? Who cares? Go after them. As all of that is going on, we are going to get a State of the Union that describes an imaginary scenario. Now, some elected officials are boycotting tonight. Some media figures are boycotting tonight. Some. Some viewers and voters are boycotting tonight. I think that that's fine. I think everybody should do what aligns with their strategy and their conscience. Now, my view is simple. I am livestreaming the State of the Union tonight. We'll have a pre show and we'll have a post show. We'll have analysis. We will have your thoughts and questions. Because it is a community event after all. My view is simple. The president's State of the Union is newsworthy no matter how disgustingly authoritarian the president is. It is the most formal articulation of the priorities of the presidency that there is. It signals Legislative strategy. It exposes the rhetorical direction of this administration. And if we ignore it, it doesn't make it irrelevant. Now, if your concern is I don't want to give Trump ratings, there's a practical sort of point here. If you watch through independent media, whether it's me or whoever, you're not boosting the ratings, which are corporate network numbers. In fact, if you're curious about what Trump will say, watching on a stream like mine takes share away from the ratings and it strengthens alternative coverage. So if you're watching here, you're not padding cable news ratings at all. I believe that this is enormous news value. Not so much or only in what Trump says, but in seeing what happens in that House chamber, because the reactions matter. Who stands and sits, who claps or refuses to clap. The body language between Democrats and Republicans will tell us a lot about the internal fractures. Party discipline, political fear are they are Republicans still standing by Trump? So watching is not an endorsement of anything. Observing power doesn't validate power, and analyzing the rhetoric doesn't support the rhetoric. Now, again, I respect everybody who's boycotting. Strategic non participation can be a statement. There is room for both approaches. And if you watch, it's important to stay disciplined. When Trump lies, which he will, I assume within a minute, he will tell a lie. Resist repeating the lie just to negate it. Tell what the truth is. Repetition can make statements feel familiar and familiarity can feel like truth. So we need to be positive about what is reality. And if Trump talks about a booming economy, we talk about families struggling with rent and food. If Trump says, well, the immigration raids are about safety, we talk about communities being traumatized and terrorized by these aggressive, unhinged raids. Say what is true, clip the embarrassing stuff and then just smother with actual facts. Now, Trump thrives on spectacle. We're going to stay focused on substance, health care, affordability, civil rights, accountability. That's the real state of the Union. There's no speech that can erase that. So if you are watching, join me at 8pm Eastern, 5 Pacific. We will do analysis. We will open the phone lines after to get your thoughts on the speech. But by popular demand, we will have a Trump State of the Union bingo card. So I hope to see you tonight and I also respect you if I don't. When the questions get specific, the answers start to unravel, especially with Donald Trump's White House press secretary, Caroline Levitt. There is a very simple, confusing lack of context about Trump's increasing bloodthirstiness to Go after Iran. If Operation Midnight Hammer some months ago did destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, why would Trump bomb Iran now? To destroy their nuclear facilities. And Caroline Levitt responds completely incoherently. It was successful, but they might be rebuilding the program. Really? That is incredible speed.
- [09:15]
David Pakman
One of the things that the president
- [09:17]
Caroline Levitt (Trump Press Secretary)
a lot of nuclear sites.
- [09:20]
David Pakman (Main Commentary)
We heard from Steve Woodcock just a
- [09:22]
David Pakman
few days ago also saying that Iran was maybe just a week ago from getting access to bomb Navy material.
- [09:28]
Caroline Levitt (Trump Press Secretary)
How would they square those two statements?
- [09:30]
David Pakman
What exactly happened here? With a strikes just not as effective
- [09:34]
Caroline Levitt (Trump Press Secretary)
or were they able to build more
- [09:35]
David Pakman
quickly than the administration?
- [09:36]
Caroline Levitt (Trump Press Secretary)
No, the President's initial statement and the president reiterated that true social that Operation Midnight Hammer was an overwhelmingly successful mission that did in fact obliterate Iran's nuclear facilities. That is not just verified by the President of the United States, but also the International Atomic Energy Commission as well. That does not mean that Iran may never try again to establish a nuclear program that could directly threaten the United States and our allies abroad. And that's what the President wants to ensure can never happen again. And just one more note with respect to Iran before I run into my morning meeting. President Trump's first option is always diplomacy.
- [10:16]
David Pakman (Main Commentary)
But as he okay, we know that it's really not. So that is pretty remarkable, right? I mean, they, they be, they've been rebuilding that program with extraordinary speed. I mean, the likes of which humans have never seen before. If the facilities were obliterated and the threat eliminated, why are we casually pivoting to the idea that they can just very quickly reestablish the program in just a few months? You can argue that a strike delayed the capability, you can argue it degraded their infrastructure, but that doesn't sound that successful. So they said, well, it was obliterated. Obliterated suggests finality when you claim total destruction. But then in the next breath you go, yeah, but the threat could be re emerging that exposes that they have been lying all along. It's basic logic and this is the pattern with the administration's rhetoric. Everything is historic like never before. Everything is complete and total and decisive until you're sort of forced to admit that it's a little more complicated than that. Trump, rather, Caroline Levitt asked, does Trump consider Iran a threat? And here is what Caroline Levitt says,
- [11:30]
Caroline Levitt (Trump Press Secretary)
but what the United States is doing to ensure that not only America is the safest country in the world, but remains the strongest country in the world. Well, look, Iran chants death to America. So you tell me if that's a threat.
- [11:45]
David Pakman (Main Commentary)
Elena and of course, that is a complete and total deflection. The question of whether Trump considers Iran a national security threat in the context of nuclear weapons and whether he would bomb them is completely separate from whether you can find people in Iran who chant death to America. I'm against chance of death to America. I'm against chance of death for anybody. But I also recognize that just people chanting death to America doesn't mean there's a nuclear weapons program that you need to now go and bomb. The question wasn't about slogans. The question was about the strategic assessment of the administration. Is Iran currently a direct military threat? Because Trump is thinking of a war there. Is Iran a long term nuclear threat? Is it an intelligence threat? These are different categories. Reducing the analysis to is anyone chanting stuff we don't like? Is extraordinarily pathetic. Now, the biggest issue here is when you escalate the rhetoric to, they had this nuclear weapons program. We have obliterated it. You are creating expectations. You're telling the American people, I have solved a problem. It was worth it, even though I told you I'm the peace president, it was worth the bombing because we solved a problem. We obliterated the program. It is final. But then if your new argument just months later is, well, it turns out it wasn't fully destroyed or they've already rebuilt it, you have a credibility gap that opens up like, you know, the Grand Canyon. Press secretaries, you could argue, have one job. And even though the job of press secretary, especially under Trump, has been to cheerlead and insult reporters and to try to win on Twitter, the job is maintain credibility in communicating what the White House is doing and what the White House is thinking.
- [13:35]
Donald Trump
Thinking.
- [13:36]
David Pakman (Main Commentary)
Caroline Levitt has zero credibility with regard to what this White House is thinking and what this White House is doing. And if we ask her questions about the State of the Union address, you will very quickly see that her credibility. Trump must have done one of his famous power flushes, where he's just flushing, flushing, flushing. Her credibility has been flushed down the toilet. Press Secretary Caroline Levitt appeared on Fox News just hours ago, and part of the appearance was to preview Donald Trump's State of the Union address. Now, I already, I already told you at the top of the show, I expect that within 60 seconds of the start of the speech, Trump will tell a lie. 60 seconds may be generous, but I expect that certainly within a minute, Donald Trump is going to lie. One of the other expectations, and in fact, we have this on our Trump State of the Union bingo card, is Trump Blaming Biden and Trump, blaming Obama and. And Trump saying, I inherited a mess. And Trump saying, it was the worst ever, but now it's the best ever. And Caroline Levitt is telling us in no uncertain terms that is exactly what Donald Trump is going to do.
- [14:43]
Caroline Levitt (Trump Press Secretary)
And of everyday Americans who are directly benefiting from his policies and making a few new policy announcements as well. To continue tackling the affordability crisis that Joe Biden created one year ago. And the President will be talking about the positive metrics we have seen and moving forward towards making life again more affordable and prosperous for all Americans.
- [15:05]
David Pakman (Main Commentary)
You know, the funny part is, did you catch that Caroline Levitt said that? We are going to learn tonight about the affordability crisis that Joe Biden created a year ago. A year ago was Almost March of 2025. Trump had been president for two months. A year ago, not Biden. And inflation, when Biden turned things over to Trump, had been around 3% for almost two years. We are now well into Donald Trump's term, and at some point, the guy before me has to stop being the explanation. Now, to be fair, every incoming president inherits conditions. Donald Trump inherited an economy that certainly was shaped by Biden. Biden inherited an economy shaped by Trump's first term. Trump inherited one, you know, shaped by his predecessor, Barack Obama. Obama, yeah. That's how continuity works. But the issue is that you can't simultaneously say the economy is booming because of me and a bunch of it sucks because of the previous president. Like, at some point, it's your economy. If you're still blaming Biden for an affordability crisis 14 months into your, your pregnancy, your presidency, you're making one of two arguments. Either you haven't fixed it or you can't fix it. Neither is a very strong message. Now, there's also a credibility problem. Again, Joe Biden created this a year ago. It's not just politically inconvenient, it is factually sloppy. Presidential transitions happen on a specific date. Policies take some time to phase in and out. Inflation, housing prices, interest rates, these are influenced by global forces. Fed reserve rates, supply chains, energy markets, all of that stuff. Reducing all of it to Biden did it a year ago is a pathetic oversimplification. And I believe that audiences notice it. And this is now the default script. If gas prices go up, it's Biden. If they go down, it's Trump. If grocery prices stay high, it's Biden. But if you can argue that they're down, it's Trump. If housing is unaffordable, that's Biden. If markets rise, though, that's Trump. If the job numbers are good, one month, that's Trump. If they're bad, it's because of the hangover effect from Joe Biden's presidency. That's just Partizan accounting. What was it Bush called it? Fuzzy math decades ago. And the longer that this goes on, the more it starts to look like reflex instead of strategy. At some point, it's yours. That's it. And you can argue you inherited a mess, but you can't live in inherited mode forever. It's also revealing that, by the way, Caroline Levitt said this on Fox News, which is a friendly venue. This was not like a hostile MSNBC cross examination. This was a comfortable environment. And even there, he's going to talk to us about how it's all Biden's fault sounds pretty strained. Like that is really stretching credulity. They, the American people, I believe, are not accepting that people are experiencing monthly bills, groceries, energy, electricity is up, etc. I don't think too many Americans are out there when they see their grocery bill or their energy bill looking at it and going, gosh darn it, this is Joe Biden's fault. I don't, I don't think they are. If you're in my audience and you believe Biden is the reason that things are the way they are today, after all of Trump's failed promises and 14 months in office, tell me, but Trump is president. That's the state of play. You can't blame Biden. You can't blame Obama. Not successfully. You can try. You can try to say this is Jerome Powell's fault, but eventually you're in charge. What are you doing about it? And if it's simply the previous guy, you start looking impotent. Even after 14 months, you don't have the power, intelligence and resources to fix what the previous guy did. Like, even if we accept that claim, it makes you look powerless and pathetic. We'll have more of this on our full podcast episode. Maybe some of you are listening to it right now. If you're watching a clip on YouTube or Tik Tok or Instagram, remember that our full one hour daily podcast is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or anywhere you get your shows. A good hoodie matters more than people think, especially this time of year when you're reaching for the same layer every single day. I've gone through a lot of hoodies that look fine at first, but they just don't feel like something I'm going to want to or even be able to keep wearing season after season. And this is why I love our sponsor, American Giant. I've been wearing their classic Full zip hoodie. It just feels different. The fleece is custom heavyweight, the fit is comfortable without being sloppy. 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I want to say a huge thank you to Darlene Peck and Mary swire, our newest two members who signed up at join pacman.com there's so many great perks, but importantly, you are directly supporting independent media. When you sign up@join pacman.com you know, if you have cable TV, you are sending money to channels you may not watch and you may not even like if you have cable, but you never watch Fox News, you're sending them three bucks a month. That is devastating. When you sign up for our show@join pacman.com you're only supporting our show. Check it out. You can use the coupon code. It will end soon. To save Big I off of the cost of a monthly or yearly membership, we have a clip of the President speaking that is not just rambling. It is not Trump being Trump. It is a complete inability to control and focus his brain. Watch in this clip as a confused and disoriented and agitated Trump that jumps from Zoran Mamdani to shoveling snow to a random woman in the audience with bad eyes, to polls to all of this other stuff. There is no connective tissue here. There's no narrative arc. There's no. It's a version of cognitive pinball. It's a. It's a verbal inkblot. Trump's brain just going all over the place. And this is the guy supposedly making decisions. Although increasingly we are learning he's making relatively few decisions behind the scenes.
- [23:01]
Donald Trump
Why would we do this? And they walk in. Nobody even asked for, like, do you have an identification? Do you have an id? It's so crazy. You know, the mayor of New York, and he's a very nice person. I met him. But he's. His ideology is not. Not too good. But we're having a massive snowstorm right now, and I heard that he's asked people to come out and help shovel the snow. Okay.
- [23:31]
David Pakman (Main Commentary)
How dare he?
- [23:32]
Donald Trump
You get a shovel and you start shoveling. Right? What the hell? You're not going to help too much, but you can help and. Hello, darling. How are you? Noah, right behind you.
- [23:41]
David Pakman (Main Commentary)
Look, Ping. He just got distracted, my friend.
- [23:44]
Donald Trump
Right? Are you okay? Yes. You? I. Are you okay? Are you okay? Good, good. Are your eyes okay? Wednesday, I gave her money to get her eyes fixed. A lot of money to get her eyes fixed. That doctor ripped me off, but that's okay. And when do you go,
- [24:12]
David Pakman (Main Commentary)
Ladies and gentlemen, the President of the United States.
- [24:17]
Donald Trump
Well, you get them done. It's a pretty. It's an operation, but it's a. It's. It's 100%. You know, it's great. Good. Are you going to have 2020 vision? You know, she's. She's almost blind. Cataracts. She's almost blind.
- [24:32]
David Pakman (Main Commentary)
This is completely off the rails, and
- [24:34]
Donald Trump
with one operation that will take a very short period of time. Hope you have a good doctor. He's an expensive. He's an expensive doctor. Top of the line, right? But you know what? You're going to have 2020 vision because I notice you're wearing glasses. I saw you yesterday on television wearing glasses. And I said, well, but anyway. But you know, speaking of your family, it would be a lot different right now, except for the election. So I always say, it's too bad that happened. And if I had it.
- [25:06]
David Pakman (Main Commentary)
Does that. That make any sense to anybody? What a coherent narrative arc that Trump. I mean, and by the way, so compelling a speaker, just electrifying the room, as you can see, almost impossible. There seems to be something physical that happens at the. At the most core level. Fake polls. Trump is furious that his polling is in the absolute dead dumps. Massive dumps. And he just goes, my real polls are good. Very, very good.
- [25:38]
Donald Trump
And I had to go through, and I still do fake stories, fake polls. And I had polls for the election that showed I was going to get swamped and I won in A landslide. They were fake polls, because polls are tough. You know, when you get a fake poll. I get them today. I saw one today that I'm at 40%. 40%. I'm not at 40%. I'm at much higher than that. I mean, I'd love to run against anybody. The real polls say you kill everybody. It wouldn't even be close. But you go through the fake polls, you go through fake stories. And I said, you know, it was good because this is really a much more powerful term.
- [26:17]
David Pakman (Main Commentary)
So anyway, you know, the thing about this, there's. It's become so popular. People reflexively say the polls just have gotten it wrong for so long after 2016, going into 2020, people were saying, oh, the polls, you can't trust the polls. And then into 24 and then beyond. The truth is, the polls have been pretty good. Like, I think what Trump is referring to is that there was that Seltzer poll about Iowa which said that Kamala Harris was winning. But that was a poll that was completely out of step with everything. In 2016, the polls said Hillary would probably win the popular vote by a couple points, and she did. Obviously, she lost the Electoral College. It was very close. It was about 75,000 votes in three states. That's well within the margins of error in any state poll. But the big picture of it was she'll probably win the popular vote. And she did. In 2020, the polls mostly indicated Biden's going to win this thing. We didn't really think that it was going to be super close. It looked like Biden had enough of a lead in enough swing states and certainly a popular vote lead, that he would end up with a popular vote victory somewhere between four and seven points, and that he would win the Electoral College. And he did. And then in 2024, I know a lot of people in my audience didn't want to hear it, but I came to all of you in August, September of 2024, and I said, my friends, if you compare the swing state polls right now, 2024, Harris versus Trump, they look worse than they did for Biden in 2020, and they look worse than they did for Hillary in 2016, and she lost. And a lot of people in my audience said, david, we need positivity. I don't want to hear that. But those were the numbers. And you know what? The polls were right in 2024 as well. So this entire, like you, we. If the polls say something I don't like, they must be fake. This is an authoritarian classic. But it's nonsense. Trump then pivots to how much of a martyr he is, how much he has suffered for the country.
- [28:16]
Donald Trump
But we wouldn't be here right now. I'm just thinking as we. As we're going through, because we've suffered through it together. I suffer for the country. I mean, it's the people I've gotten to know, the mothers and fathers, mostly mothers and fathers. Husbands in some cases, wives in some cases, but mostly mothers and fathers. What they have to go through.
- [28:37]
David Pakman (Main Commentary)
This is low energy, Trump, by the
- [28:38]
Donald Trump
way, but we wouldn't be here right now. I'm just thinking as we're. As we're going through, because we've suffered through it together. I suffer for the country.
- [28:47]
David Pakman (Main Commentary)
This is classic authoritarian strongman psychology. Authoritarians want power, but they don't only want power, they want to be seen as sacrificing themselves. Putin does it, Orban does it, Erdogan does it. The leader must suffer so that the followers feel morally justified in defending them. There's a moral debt that authoritarians want. If he suffers, you must protect him. And you lock in loyalty because he suffered for me. They say that the left is all about grievances. That is grievance politics in its purest form. He's the victim. He's persecuted, he's cheated on, he's robbed. Even when he's in power, even as a rich, wealthy, elite guy, for his whole life, he's the biggest victim. And then, like clockwork, back to 2020, he can't move forward psychologically.
- [29:45]
Donald Trump
If that election, if it wasn't rigged. It was a rigged election by millions and millions of votes. A guy that never left his basement. It was all run by crooked people. Covid was a little bit of a shield. We had a lot of things going on, but it was rigged by millions of votes. We did great in that election. If that election wasn't rigged, every single one of the people in this room right now would not be here.
- [30:12]
Lauren
There you go.
- [30:13]
David Pakman (Main Commentary)
He cannot get beyond 2020, psychological. Psychologically, he is frozen in November of 2020. Every speech becomes a time machine or a black hole out of which you can't get. He is not running the country. He's just relitigating a loss from five years ago. Now, that was what Trump said at this totally deranged event. But there was a moment where what Trump did was terrifying, and we are going to talk about that next. I want to approach this carefully and with tact. Donald Trump is very clearly unwell. He was disoriented. At the end of a White House event just hours ago, he was confused and wandering around. Now this clip is going viral. And in the clip, what you see is Donald Trump getting up at the end of this event, looking around, thanking people in the audience, sort of perplexed as to what comes next, doing the thing where he taps his right leg with his right hand. That seems to be, and I'm going to go back, that seems to be a reflex Trump has when he's sort of disoriented. He pats his own right leg with his right hand, braces himself on the lectern, looks around and then sort of seems unsure as to where to go or what to do. This is not a diagnosis. This is a reminder that when Biden did something similar with a perfectly clear explanation, they said Biden is done, his brain is cooked and he's got to be removed right now. Now, of course, we later found out Biden was gesturing to specific people standing to the side, but it doesn't matter. But Donald Trump again, as he didn't seem to know what was going on or what to do. This is getting traction. And it's also getting traction because this isn't happening in isolation. We have seen repeated moments over the last lesson, six years, some say 10, but certainly over the last couple of years where Trump is verbally collapsing. His vocabulary is getting increasingly limited. He's confused about names, he makes up facts, he mixes up timelines. He seems not to know where we are in time. He claims events that didn't occur, he abruptly changes topics. His attention is a mess. And when you see that combined with these moments where he's spatially unsure, people start asking questions. And that is very reasonable. The presidency is a high stress job. It requires stamina and focus and information processing and executive control. And when Trump hesitates, grips the lectern, scans the room, you see the vacant look in his eyes. It's concerning because it's the commander in chief. Now. There's, of course, a few possibilities. One, this is nothing. Brief pause, staging hiccup. He didn't know where to go. We're over interpreting it because it's Donald Trump. Number two, it's something, but it's just fatigue. Trump doesn't sleep much. Travel schedules, events, late nights, anybody can look off. Except increasingly, Donald Trump is keeping a lighter and lighter schedule. And so that gets us to possibility number three, which is that there is something systemic going on. There is a pattern here. We can't conclude number three from one clip alone, but we also can't ignore patterns. When you pair the clip with claims that political opponents dropped out when they didn't. We'll get to that later. Trump said that Gavin Newsom ended his presidential campaign, that he dropped out. You might be saying, what is he talking about? The repeated insistence on polls that don't exist, the constant relitigation of events years in the past and living in the past, the fragmented speech patterns. There's a cumulative effect that we as humans who use pattern recognition to figure out the world can't ignore. Now the hypocrisy is a big part of this. Trump and his allies spent years aggressively questioning the cognitive fitness of Biden. They made it central to their messaging. That has to go both ways. If the cognitive sharpness of a president or candidate is the most important standard, we've got to apply it to Trump. That needs to be done fairly. Allies care about stability. Military leadership cares about stability. When the president appears physically uncertain and cognitively disoriented. We have broader concerns about who is really in charge here. Now, I would respect some of the Magaz a lot more if they said, listen, I support Trump. I love his tariffs, I love his deportation policy, as silly as that would be. I support the policy, but I'm concerned about what's going on with him. I would respect that. I would respect those people a lot more. Doesn't have to be partizan, right? These are just basic questions about competence supporters. Waving them off doesn't make them go away. I would argue that the presidency is too important for denial on either side. And if nothing is wrong, let's be more transparent. If something is wrong, let's also be transparent. And so this clip going instantly viral because it is not only exactly what they said Biden was doing when he wasn't, it is fitting into a regular constant growing pattern. Let me know in the comments. What do you see? Let me know in an email info@david pakman.com what do you think? And remember, excuse me, getting so overwhelmed with emotion that I choked. Make sure you're on my Substack newsletter so I can keep in touch with you about all of these issues. You can sign up@substack.david pakman.com let's be honest, the math is not adding up lately. Between the grocery store skyrocketing insurance premiums even with a steady job, more families are being forced rely on high interest credit cards to cover expenses. If you are a homeowner caught in that cycle carrying balances with interest rates in the 20s or even 30s, it is time to get some relief. Right now, mortgage rates are at a three year low. Our sponsor American Financing are helping homeowners pay off the high interest debt at rates in the low fives. The salary based mortgage consultants at American Financing don't just push loans, they build an exit strategy from debt. On average, they are saving their customers $800 a month. Plus if you start today, you may even delay the next two mortgage payments. And at American Financing there are no upfront fees or obligations. Just to find out how much could you save, call 866-891-7848 or go to american financing.net/pacman. The link is in the description. Let's talk about our old friend JD Vance, who by the way, he is the vice president. I know it's easy to forget because they keep them keep him mostly locked away so he doesn't embarrass anybody. J.D. vance should have been treated by Lara Trump during this FOX News interview the way that J.D. vance was treated by George Stephanopoulos asking for proof, following up about lies. But of course, Lara Trump didn't do that. JD Vance went on Lara Trump's show, friendliest setting possible. No pressure, no follow ups. And JD Vance delivers a line that falls apart the second you look at it. Now, of course, the context is J.D. vance is extraordinarily uncharismatic. J.D. vance as regularly saying things that make him so unlikable, lack of gravitas and okay, anyway, JD Talks about all of the factories that are being built thanks to Trump. Take a look at this. Of reshoring manufacturing, of all these great factories that are being built. But when they turn on and you're hiring thousands of American worker per factory, that's when the real Trump boom I think starts. Right? He is talking about all the factories and the Trump boom that will be happening. Well, I would love it for him to name some of these factories. Now, some of you in the audience might say the reason JD Isn't naming specific factories is because there aren't any. But the real explanation is a little bit darker. Let me come back to that. The interesting thing about factories and manufacturing jobs is that they're not metaphors. A factory is a physical building. You need land, you need permits, you need supply chains for the input, products, investment, labor planning. This stuff takes years. If all these factories are under construction because of something Trump did, we should be able to identify the factories. Which projects are actually getting going because of Donald Trump, which actually are based on things Trump did after he returned to power, which executive order or legislation from Trump led to the construction of these factories. Now, you might already kind of get a sense of where I'm going with this, but the question is what policies changed the math so that all these companies said, let's build a factory, we're already building it and we're about to start hiring a whole bunch of people. The trick is the following, Vance is number one, selling the possibility of future factories which have not yet started construction based on anything that Donald Trump did. And, and this is the key, he is trying to take credit for factories that are being built now because of the Chips and Science act signed into law while Joe Biden was president, thanks to Democrats. And they don't want you to know that the reality about factories is it takes a while. We've been hearing, you know, infrastructure week and everything's a couple of weeks away and now they're building factories thanks to Trump. But the truth is it takes a really long time for the entire process that leads to breaking ground on a factory. And a lot of the construction that is going on now, and it's not a crazy amount, but there is some is because of a Biden era law that after you got the land and the permits and the construction company and all of it is only starting to be built right now. But it has nothing to do, nothing to do with Donald Trump. Now the other thing I think is important to mention here is that there's a sort of interwoven promise that Trump made, which is that under his stewardship, the economy was going to see more and more manufacturing jobs. And the truth is that that's not happening. Manufacturing employment levels are lower than they've been in a really long time. And in fact, there are open manufacturing jobs that Americans don't want at the wage that is being offered. Maybe if the wage offered went up, Americans would want them. But this all ignores like a really big overarching reality. The really big overarching reality is that it doesn't really make sense to do most manufacturing in the United States. There are some macroeconomic realities that we have to confront, which is that Most Americans, certainly 75%, probably 90%, probably even 95% of Americans would never want to pay and or couldn't afford to pay what stuff costs or would cost if it was made in the United States. Do you think America, what does an iPhone cost at this point? Is it 800 bucks? A thousand iPhone cost? Let me see here, 800 to 1100 dollars. Do you think that Americans who are currently paying 800 to 1100 dollars for an iPhone would be happy to say we're making them domestically, but I'm going to pay $2700 for the iPhone, which is what one estimate predicted. Of course not. And the truth is, I'm not saying I like it. I'm not saying we should have gone this direction when we started going this direction 40, 50 years ago. But. But the truth is that when you consider wages and labor standards in China as compared to the United States, we are not going to be able to do the manufacturing on the level that Trump claims. We're going to do it at prices that Americans are going to be willing or able to pay, but they don't want to acknowledge that we're going to bring it back. And of course they're not bringing it back. And quite frankly, it doesn't really make sense to bring it back. So JD Is not really looking like a vice president leading an agenda here. He looks like a spokesperson who is confused about reality and is doing a worse job of it even than Caroline Levitt. If you're going to sell a manufacturing revival, you've got to point to specific employment increases and specific factories that are breaking ground and being built because of something Trump did. Just because it's happening while Trump is president doesn't mean it has anything to do with Donald Trump. And J.D. vance is very, very bad at this, that's for sure. Donald Trump went on Truth Social and stroked out again, posting two messages that tell you a lot about how he sees power right now. I want to take them one at a time. First post from Trump on Truth Social, Truth central. Quote, any country that wants to play games with the ridiculous Supreme Court decision, especially those that have ripped off the USA for years and even decades, will be met with a much higher tariff and worse than that which they just recently agreed to. Buyer beware. This is the language of grievance. This is not governance. Countries negotiating trade terms aren't playing games. Trade disputes are normal. Legal rulings happen, appeals happen, countermeasures happen. This is called international commerce for Trump's framing. If there's resistance to anything, they're not respecting me. If there's an adverse ruling, it's illegitimate. Any country that just says, hey, we have interests, we're going to try to assert our interests, that is cheating, and it is a personal attack on Donald Trump. And then buyer beware. Tariffs aren't supposed to be punishment magically paid by foreign governments, by the way. They're not paid by foreign governments. Tariffs are taxes on imports. U.S. companies pay them. I'M angry at China, so I will put a tariff on China that American companies pay, which most of most of which is then passed on to American consumers. We already saw this in Donald Trump's first term. His tariff battles triggered retaliation. They disrupted the supply chains. They led to billions in federal bailouts to farmers, and then he's doing the same thing again. So when he threatens much higher tariffs, and even worse, he is presenting erratic volatility as a sign of strength, that he's strong. But businesses don't invest when things are volatile. They invest based on predictability. And if trade policy depends on who Trump is mad at this week, we're in for a really bad one. Second post from Trump, quote, as president, I do not have to go back to Congress to get approval of tariffs. It has already been gotten in many forms a long time ago. They were just also. They were also just reaffirmed by the ridiculous and poorly crafted Supreme Court decision. This one is, is arguably more important. The Constitution gives Congress the power to regulate commerce with foreign nations. Now, over time, Congress has delegated some tariff authorities to the executive branch through specific statutes. That is true. Delegated authority isn't unlimited. It can be interpreted, it can be challenged. It can be narrowed. Courts, review. How far does that extend? Congress can amend it. There's separation of powers. Trump doesn't frame it that way. He doesn't say, listen, under existing law, I believe I have this authority. He says, I don't have to go to Congress, period. That's the mindset. I can do whatever I want. Congress is an obstacle. Judicial review is ridiculous. If there's a constraint on Trump, he says it's illegitimate. Now, notice the contradiction. He calls the Supreme Court decision ridiculous and poorly crafted. But he says it reaffirmed his authority. So the Supreme Court is incompetent, but also helpful to him. That is the pattern. That's much bigger than tariffs. Institutions that limit him are corrupt. Courts are flawed. Congress isn't necessary. Trade partners are ripping us off. The media is fake. Elections are rigged. If there's an independent center of authority, it's invalid. And if they do what he wants, then he sort of will begrudgingly recognize their authority. That's why this really matters. Trump is escalating this economically volatile situation in a way that he wants you to believe is him being really tough and fighting for you. Except it's not fighting for you. In fact, the blanket tariff was a disaster for the average American. And then he wants you to believe that it's inevitable, that he has the power to do whatever he wants together. This is a president that sees checks and balances not as the system within which we work, but as personal annoyances. I am not a fan of George W. Bush. I think he was a bad president and did horrible things. But Bush did respect and understand that there are some final decisions that that's it. The Supreme Court is certainly one of them. And when you start talking about presidential power as something that was permanently gotten a long time ago, that is how you normalize. Unilateral rule, which is of course what Donald Trump would prefer. It would be much easier if I were a dictator. George W. Bush said that, sort of jokingly. Trump genuinely believes it.
- [48:35]
David Pakman
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David Pakman
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David Pakman (Main Commentary)
The David Pakman show is an audience supported program and the best, most direct way to support the show is by becoming a member. @join pacman.com you'll get the daily bonus show, the daily commercial free show and plenty of other great membership perks. Get the full experience by signing up@join pacman.com let's talk about what happened last night. There was an incident last night that some are referring to as Sundowning by Donald Trump. The idea that as it gets later in the day, his cognitive decline becomes more pronounced, acute and noticeable. Now let me tell you what happened. Donald Trump Donald Trump went on Truth social media and posted wow. Gavin News scum just dropped out of the presidential race. The problem of course is that California Governor Gavin Newsom hasn't dropped out of anything. He hasn't even officially declared that he's running in 2028. There is no campaign to drop out of. And Gavin Newsom's response was, wow, the President is sundowning harder than usual tonight. Governor gcn. Now, major outlets covered this, Newsweek, the New York Post. They had to report that Trump made the claim and of course immediately mentioned that it's completely unsubstantiated because there's nothing for Gavin Newsom to drop out of. Now, Gavin Newsom is on a book tour. He is of course considered to be a potential 2028 candidate. He's polling really well. There's a recent Echelon Insights poll that has Newsom leading at 24%, which is a plurality in this multi way hypothetical poll. But dropping out, what does that mean? So is it trolling? Is it confusion? Is it Trump exaggerating, some misunderstood thing? What I can tell you is that Trump announced a political event that doesn't exist. He announced the end of Gavin Newsom's campaign for president. And Gavin Newsom has not announced a campaign for president, never mind the end to it. I believe that this is really important when you have a president that is declaring that something happened that used to mean something. There was a time where we didn't write off the statements of the President as nonsense. Ranting, joking, trolling, confusion, disorientation, dementia, Alzheimer's. There was a time where when the President said something, it mattered and he might be wrong. When George W. Bush stood in front of the Mission Accomplished banner on the aircraft carrier and said whatever he said, major operations in Iraq have ended. He was wrong, but it was related to something in the real world. And instead with Trump, we've gotten so used to this crap where there's no evidence rigged elections about elections that weren't rigged, that he won, elections that he didn't win, that there are medical realities that are just not realities. And now it's a campaign withdrawal that didn't happen. So this isn't even like just insult politics. If he just insulted Gavin Newsom, at least it would be very unpresidential. It would be very stupid, but at least it would be like, okay, Trump insulted Newsom, Fine. All right, we can evaluate. Do we agree with the insult or don't we? He is creating a narrative out of nothing. And the issue isn't that Trump is intimidated by Gavin Newsom. It's not that he's jealous of Gavin Newsom. Those are real things. But that's not really the issue. The issue is the increasingly casual way in which Trump asserts false political developments as fact. And so there are two important takeaways here. Number one, Trump is clearly focused on 2028, which relates to his obsession with legacy, and he sees Gavin Newsom as a threat. Yesterday we talked about how Trump is increasingly insecure, and he's going around in the White House and saying to people, should I be supporting JD Vance as the next nominee, or should I be supporting Marco Rubio as the next nominee? Trump, who supposedly is a better judge of character and potential and the best person at hiring others in the world, is completely insecure and going around, who should I who? And he sees Gavin Newsom as a threat. Now, we understand there's an additional layer. Should I pick JD Because I'm not sure that he could do well against Gavin Newsom. Potentially. Of course, Newsom hasn't even announced anything. Should I pick Marco? And how would that intersect with the potential of Gavin Newsom as a candidate? That's. That's the number one thing. Number two, factual guardrails do not exist anymore. When the factual guardrails go away at the very top of the echelons of power, confusion becomes the norm. And the real story is, is this isn't new, okay? But it's sort of relevant with a particularly abrasive texture that we didn't have before. When Trump says, something happened, no opinion, no value judgment, just X happened, we have to say, did that really happen? And this time it's, Gavin Newsom just dropped out of the race. And of course, we know that that isn't true. This is terrifying. I don't know if sundowning is accurate, but it certainly may be. Jesse Watters is a Fox News host, and Jesse Watters doesn't want a president who struggles to read. I know, I know, I know. Let's just listen to what Jesse had to say. I don't forgive it. I don't want a president who scores poorly. I don't want a president who struggles to read. I want a really smart president now. So I think that he is talking about Gavin Newsom's recent quip that he reads slowly or whatever in front of an audience. But what Jesse is saying should really be applied to Donald Trump. Now, the reality is that we've been covering Trump's reading difficulties for a long time. And just as a reminder, there are hundreds of examples of this. Here is Trump sort of struggling to read in the uk and again, it's not that he can't read. He just seems to have a lower level of reading. Okay.
- [56:16]
Donald Trump
In the finest tradition of British sovereigns, he's given his whole heart, everything he's got, to those parts of Britain that are beyond the realm of mere legislation. It's not easy, but which define its essence and its virtue in harmony and its soul.
- [56:35]
David Pakman (Main Commentary)
Listen, it's just hard for Trump to read. He clearly can read, but he speaks at a fourth grade level. And honestly, it sounds roughly like the sort of out loud reading you would expect somewhere between fourth grade and maybe sixth grade. Here's one other example.
- [56:50]
Donald Trump
President of Indonesia, somebody who's an amazing leader. Prabowal. He is.
- [57:00]
David Pakman (Main Commentary)
Blow, Blow. Okay. I could just play hours of Trump struggling to read. And there's the famous anecdote from SNL's Pete Davidson about how when Trump went on and hosted Saturday Night Live, it became clear he just can't read Donald Trump.
- [57:19]
Lauren
You were telling me I have one story I'm allowed to tell, and it's hilarious.
- [57:24]
Donald Trump
You have stories you're not.
- [57:25]
Lauren
You're allowed to tell what happened with the Trumpster. Okay. So he's like, he doesn't really know how to read.
- [57:31]
David Pakman (Main Commentary)
For real.
- [57:32]
Lauren
Yeah. And he loves to improv.
- [57:34]
Donald Trump
Yeah.
- [57:35]
Lauren
So during, like the table read, he like before, like we were gonna read each before, he had to read each line. And he's the host, so he's at everything. Yeah. He would go, I'm not gonna say this. I think I'm gonna say it the way I want to say. Is that okay?
- [57:50]
David Pakman (Main Commentary)
Is that okay, Lauren? Is it everything?
- [57:52]
Lauren
And everybody's like, what? And then this is my favorite part is there was a sketch that we wrote where he's at Disneyland with his daughter. And the line is, all right, let's get out of here, turkey legs. Like, let's go get turkey legs. And he doesn't know how to read. So he went, all right, let's get out of here, Turkey legs. He called his thought of turkey legs. Maybe that was his improv. Oh, no, it was. And then he looked up like he doesn't get it. Like he thinks if everybody's laughing with him, but we're all laughing at him. And it was like, crazy for he. He would be like, I did a good job.
- [58:32]
Donald Trump
Right?
- [58:32]
Lauren
And we're like, yeah.
- [58:33]
Donald Trump
Did he need reassurance? A lot of reassurance, or was he pretty confident?
- [58:36]
Lauren
He constantly kept saying how amazing the ratings were going to be.
- [58:39]
David Pakman (Main Commentary)
I mean, he's like, so listen, the. There's a couple stories here. It's not news. That Trump struggles to read. It's not funny that Trump struggles to read. You know, this limited literacy thing is a real problem. We now know. We covered this on the award winning bonus show.
- [58:57]
Botox Advertiser
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- [58:59]
Donald Trump
Everybody else that makes money to fund themselves is bad.
- [59:02]
David Pakman (Main Commentary)
Right? Thank you, Alex. We covered on the bonus show how there are people who are getting sort of like shunted through high school, barely able to read and write, in some cases really not able to read and write, and they end up in college not able to read or write. And there's systemic issues and a lot of other educational stuff going on, but it's not that rare. Now. It is a little more rare in someone of Trump's age, but Trump struggles to read. The hypocrisy when they talk. Oh, we. I don't want a president that struggles to read. Well, Jesse, you got one. You got one right now. Now on the bonus show today, we will talk about a gunman shot dead at Mar A Lago. What we will talk about the killing of the Mexican drug cartel boss El Mencho. And also Cash Patel sparking outrage, chugging beers with Team usa and well, I'll reserve my evaluation for the bonus show. Please join me live tonight for Trump's State of the Union address. I really look forward to seeing you there. Sign up for membership and get the bonus show instantly at join pacman.com what a day.