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David Pakman (1:29)
month ever feel like your brain just won't click? Onnit Alpha Brain is a daily supplement engineered to support memory, focus and mental speed. Made with science backed ingredients, Onnit Alpha Brain helps you lock in, tune out distractions and stay sharp. See what your brain can really do. Visit onnit.com and shop Alpha Brain to unlock your next level. That's O n n I dash Republicans are quietly panicking about something that was never supposed to happen. Texas could be in play. A brutal Republican primary between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton is turning the state into a battleground. If Republicans just have to spend money defending Texas from Democrats, that is a win. Trump Epstein Problems are getting worse. We've got new reporting and withheld DOJ materials that raise real questions about what on earth is going on and the political fallout is only getting started. We're also going to look into ice, quietly building up endless weapons supplies in warehouses. Why do they need it? And an ICE whistleblower, a former ICE agent, is alleging serious constitutional violations at ICE Academy, where the legal violations seem to be a feature, not a bug. We've also got a FOX News panel moment where MAGA talking points collapse in real time. Plus, we will hear from you in our Friday Feedback segment. I'm so glad that you're here. Let's do a show today. Texas is supposed to be safe for Republicans. Democrats haven't won a Senate race in Texas since 1988. It is the Republican firewall, the state they never have to defend. And now all of a sudden it looks like they might have to defend Texas. So let me tell you what's going on. There's a Republican primary for Texas Senate between current Senator John Cornyn and the Attorney General Ken Paxton. And that has turned into a full scale intra party war. You've got Cornyn backed by Senate leadership and national Republican money. Paxton is the MAGA favorite. He's aggressive and combative and, you know, uninformed in a way that is very popular with the MAGA base. But he is being weighed down by years of corruption and investigations and impeachment drama and personal scandal. And listen to this. Republicans have already spent nearly $100 million trying to stop Ken Paxton. The allies of Senator Cornyn have aired ads calling Paxton corrupt and unfair fit. And it hasn't knocked Paxton out. The polling shows Paxton leading or tied heading into a likely runoff. We've heard from Senate Majority Leader John Thune that if Paxton is the nominee, the seat could end up being lost by Republicans and going to Democrats, depending on who wins the Democratic primary. So that gets us now to the Democratic primary. State Representative James Talarico and Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett are among those whose names are being tested in general election polling. Talarico is a former teacher. He's got a big statewide profile. He's pretty competitive in early matchups. You've then got Jasmine Crockett, a high profile House member known for really sharp questioning and hearings. And she is also polling okay in general election poll polls. But it does seem as though Talarico right now is leading the primary. So internal Republican polling shows Cornyn ahead of both Talarico and Crockett and Paxton trailing Talarico and just barely ahead of Jasmine Crockett. Now, this is all in Texas. Here's my view on this. And yesterday we already talked a little Bit about the it seems that every election cycle now we hear Texas is in play. Democrats could take Texas. And I think at some point that very well could happen. Even if there hasn't been a senator from Texas for decades, if Republicans are forced to defend Texas in November, that shifts the national map because money that would normally go to North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan would have to be diverted just to hold Texas, which sometimes is considered just automatically. And even making Republicans spend money in Texas is very valuable strategically because every dollar you burn in Texas, you don't have somewhere else. The environment isn't a comfortable one for the Republican Party. Nationally, 79% of Democrats say they are definitely voting in November. Only 65% of Republicans say they are definitely voting in November. So that's a 14 point enthusiasm gap and that's the largest Democrats have had ahead of a midterm since at least 2006. Now look at 2018. In 2018, Democrats took back the House. They had a five point enthusiasm edge. This is now three times that, which is wild. Now here's another layer, and we talked about this a little bit yesterday. In Texas, the early midterm primary ballots so far are 53% Democratic, 47% Republican. At the same time in 2022, Democrats had made 38% of the votes and Republicans 62%. Okay, that is a massive 15 point shift in early ballots. Now this doesn't tell you who they're voting for, but it does tell you that Democrats seem way more motivated and way more interested. None of it guarantees a Democratic win. Texas is still red. Turnout in November is going to decide who ultimately wins. But if you're asking yourself, should Republicans be worried about this? The answer is absolutely. They're in the middle of a divisive primary. They, they're potentially going to select a very flawed nominee. In Ken Paxton, there are credible Democratic challengers. There is an enthusiasm edge for Democrats in general, and the turnout pattern or trajectory is 15 points different from what it was recently. Texas isn't supposed to be competitive. The fact that Republican leadership is talking about losing tells you how uneasy they are. And if Texas becomes a battleground, it's going to be much harder for Republicans to control the Senate. That's why they're nervous. Now there is a bigger story here as well, which is that if we think about 2028 and we think about is this going to be a Republican Party that doubles down on MAGA after Trump is gone, or will it be a Republican Party that goes in a different direction? Part of what happens in Texas could inform that if John Cornyn wins the primary and somehow lost the general, that would be one version of events. If Ken Paxton wins the primary and loses the general in Texas, that would be another sign about the direction. If Ken Paxton wins the primary and wins in November, that would be a very pro MAGA sentiment that would make Trump and others say we've got to go hardcore MAGA in 2028. These are all TBD. The point is let's make them spend money to defend Texas. And once that primary is sorted out, is it Talarico? It's looking Talarico. Is it going to be Jasmine Crockett? Let's do everything we can to try to win the seat and if it doesn't end up being won, let's just bleed them of money that would otherwise go to traditionally competitive races. Let's talk about Dr. Oz. Dr. Oz is a really tragic case of a political downfall led by naked aspiration to be adjacent to power. Dr. Oz was always a little wacky when it came. Well, not always. There was a point in time where Dr. Oz really stuck to medical recommendations that are evidence based. There was a period like that. Eventually Dr. Oz sort of went a little bit into the woo woo space. And then politically, Dr. Oz has gone completely off the rails to the point where now he is speaking in such hyperbolic terms about Donald Trump. Remember that Dr. Oz is the director of Medicare and Medicaid Services. Dr. Oz is now saying that Trump's speech on Tuesday, State of the Union, is the best speech ever by any president.
