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- [00:02]
David Pakman
Staring at your screen. Take a break. Get free items with TikTok and free pick items. Share a link and watch the price drop to zero. Download TikTok search free. Start slashing now. Ever feel like your brain just won't click? Onnit Alpha Brain is a daily supplement engineered to support memory, focus and mental speed. Made with science backed ingredients, Onnit Alpha Brain helps you lock in to tune out distractions and stay sharp. See what your brain can really do. Visit onnit.com and shop Alpha Brain to unlock your next level. That's O N N I T.com There's a pattern that is starting to be impossible to ignore. Trump allies are now openly saying they are willing to let things get worse. Higher prices, more instability, even losing in November. As long as Trump doesn't back down, they're saying it directly. Inflation might go up, fine, midterms might be lost, so be it. But we're going to let Trump do what he wants in Iran. At the same time, billionaires and politicians are basically saying they've decided you're going to sacrifice, you're going to pay more for gas, you're going to pay more for food, more for everything. But that, that is a decision they have made for you. And then you look at the polling and Trump's collapsing approval in the low 30s, broad disapproval across all areas, cracks inside the coalition. So we have a really simple question now. If this continues and Republicans get crushed in 2026, who gets blamed? Because we know Trump's not going to take responsibility. We will talk about all of that and the latest out of Iran and much more. Today, Trump and his friends are repeating something more and more frequently that I believe is worth paying attention to because it suggests exactly where this is going. They are willing to lose, not just politically, they're willing to let you lose. What I mean is higher prices, more instability, risky foreign policy decisions. They're fine with all of it if they believe it serves Trump and if they believe it is what Donald Trump wants. Listen to Ronny Jackson, now a congressman, formerly Trump's doctor, the guy who said no one has ever been as healthy as Donald Trump. Nobody has ever been as vibrant as Trump. Ah, ladies and gentlemen, exactly. So you can believe him because he was right about that. Ronny Jackson says, we started this in Iran, we're going to finish it. And then he's asked the obvious question, what about the midterms? What about the fact that it's causing inflation? And he basically shrugs and says, yeah, it might hurt us politically. Inflation Might go up, but it had to be done. Take a listen.
- [03:06]
Trump Administration Spokesperson
We're going to finish this war to start with. I mean, and, you know, some things just have to be done regardless. And I think the war falls into that category. This was a war that was going to have to take place at one point or another every single day that Iran was allowed to continue to build ballistic missiles and drones by the tens of thousands. Maria, everyone should understand Iran does not want a nuclear weapon for deterrence. Iran wants a nuclear weapon so they can use it on America and on Israel. They don't want ballistic missiles so that they can use them to defend themselves against their neighbors. They want ballistic missiles and drones so they can use them on us. And every time they build another one, that's one more that we're going to have to deal with in the future. So this had to be taken care of. It had to be done. President Trump is the only person that's had the guts to do it today. And we started this. We're going to finish it. And so I think that we'll finish the war. Yes. Is it going to have an impact on the midterm elections? Potentially, if. If inflation does move up? Probably. But it's something that had to be done for the national security of this country. So I hope that we can get it done. We can get it done quickly. We can get gas prices back down, we can get the straits opened up and we can move on and we can establish ourselves in Congress such that we can continue to get things done.
- [04:16]
David Pakman
Well, certainly the agenda that the President has put him. There you go. Now, who pays all of that cost that he's volunteering others for the inflation and the gas prices and the whole thing. It's not him. It's the people who had no say in this, 92% of whom are opposed to boots on the ground in Iran. And they will be dealing with higher prices, higher gas costs and more economic pressure. We then have Pete Hexith. He says Trump does not bluff and Trump does not back down. And the whole point is this is supposed to sound very strong, but what it really means is that there is no effective off ramp for this. Sorry, guys, you're screwed. We have no way out. But if Iran is wise, they will cut a deal. President Trump doesn't bluff and he does not back down. He does not bluff and he does not back down. Well, that's just escalatory rhetoric and escalatory rhetoric. The thing about it is it often sounds good in a soundbite. Wow. Nine Seconds. He sounds so big and strong and tough until you're the one dealing with the consequences. And then it kind of gets even more surreal because in this same deranged statement about Trump gets it done. And he never bluffs and he always does everything big, strong. He also prays for the troops. Putting aside for a second what happened to separation of church and state. Putting aside for a second that this is against the law. What about not needing God to protect the troops by not sending them into pointless and ill advised combat? You just want to interrupt and say, pete, why'd you do it? You wouldn't even have to be praying for them if you didn't do it. The pilots, the logisticians, the intel analysts, the targeters, the sustainers, the flight crews, the air defenders, the base security, those maintainers who we walked up at sunset with the chill in the air on the flight line. May God watch over all of them, each day and each night. May his almighty and eternal arms of providence stretch over them and protect them and bring them peace. In the name of Jesus Christ and Amen, Mr. Chairman. In the name of Jesus Christ. That's a government official, ladies and gentlemen. So create the risk and then ask for protection from the risk from God. Drive up costs and tell everybody, oh, it's necessary. Push policies that don't make any sense and have major downsides and frame the downsides as some unavoidable sacrifice that you had to make. And the sacrifice is being made by someone else. That's the through line. And later we'll get to billionaires telling you that the sacrifice is fine for you to make. So they're telling you very clearly they are willing to accept the political losses and the economic consequences and the real world impacts as long as Trump doesn't have to back down. And that is where it becomes a big problem. Because at least it should be the case that politics is about outcomes. Did people, did people's lives get better? Did things become more stable? And instead what you're hearing is a kind of loyalty test. We are doing this no matter what, even if it hurts us politically, even if it drives up inflation, even if it creates more risk, because backing down is not an option. And so now the question becomes, how far does that go? If they're willing to risk losing elections for this, what else are they willing to risk? And at what point do voters start to realize that they're the ones being asked to absorb all of these consequences? Once that clicks, the political fallout can be very different from what they are expecting. And the question I want to deal with with you next is if indeed they get crushed in November, which it looks like at least as far as the House is concerned, they're going to get crushed if indeed they lose in November, who does Trump blame? Who gets blamed for this self inflicted optional disaster that they bring forward? Because Trump is not the type of guy to go, hey, you know what, I miscalculated, it was a mistake, I shouldn't have done it. I mean it's is laughable. Trump has never said anything like that. So who do we believe is going to get the blame if it goes south in November? Let's talk about that next. Donald Trump will explode when they lose in November and the degree to which he will explode will be directly proportional to how badly they they lose. Do they lose just the House and do they lose it only by a little? Do they lose the House and Senate and do they lose either or both by a lot? What happens with governor's races? What happens at the state level? Who are they going to blame when they get crushed in November and who will Donald Trump blame? There's something very interesting happening that people are not really talking about yet and it's starting to show up in a bunch of different places at once. We have the early indicators. You, you look at the betting markets where people are putting money down and it is pointing to major disaster for Republicans in November, first and foremost. On the House side, it is now believed to be an 84% chance that Democrats take the House from Republicans snatching it from them. Now what will. I think it's essentially a foregone conclusion that Republicans lose the House. The interesting detail will be how badly do they lose it? Is it a 20 seat reversal? Is it a 40 seat reversal? Could it be a 60 seat reversal in the House of Representatives? We don't yet know. So we've got that. But then just as interestingly, look at what has happened to the numbers in the Senate. These are the Kalshee betting market numbers for the Senate. What was expected to be an easy Republican hold of the Senate. 81, 82% chance that Republicans will hold the Senate dropped to 70% over the summer, dropped to 65% in late 2025 and is now essentially 5050. It is flipping back and forth. Is it Republicans with a 50.4% chance of holding this, of holding the Senate, or is it Democrats with a 50.4% chance of taking the Senate? So think about that for a second because it leads to a bigger and more important question about what happens next if Republicans lose, who gets blamed? With Trump, we already know he never does a mea culpa. Nothing is ever his fault, no matter how direct the connection is. What makes this moment different is that many of the problems right now are the results of choices that were optional choices. The blanket tariffs that Trump put on every country that are showing up in higher prices and in business uncertainty and are rippling through the economy, that was optional. Trump didn't have to do that. In fact, it was extraordinarily ill advised, and we knew ahead of time it was ill advised. The Iran escalation is another one. If you're already seeing the impact on gas prices and energy costs and it's hitting people immediately and Trump is insisting we're going to be there to finish the job. He said it would be three to four weeks. It's been four weeks, we're still there. That is optional. And at the same time, a lot of what people expected hasn't materialized because Donald Trump makes promises he can't keep. No obvious economic relief, no sense of stability. Manufacturing isn't bigger than ever. Prices aren't coming down. And so if it feels chaotic and distracted and all of it, it's because it is. People's lives are not improving day to day in any notable way. And in fact, they're getting worse in some very specific and tangible areas. Inside the right wing world, there are early signs that it's not lining up the way they hoped. You looked at CPAC last weekend. You had people at cpac, the biggest right wing conference in the country, cheering the idea of impeachment hearings for Donald Trump. That's the movement that elected the guy. So fast forward to November. If we see the same trends continuing, Republicans lose the House, maybe they lose the Senate. We've got our work cut out for us, but maybe they lose the Senate. What happens the next day? Is Trump going to come out and say, listen, I made mistakes. We have to acknowledge that what I've been doing was ill advised. I mean, it's like, it's laughable because if Trump never does that, Trump's going to say it was rigged, it was stolen. That will be part of the message. He'll say the system and the courts and the media and the Democrats, and maybe he'll even name some people inside his own party as part of the problem. And you'll hear about weak Republicans, Rhinos, disloyal Republicans who didn't fight hard enough, they didn't back his agenda. That part is predictable. The more interesting question is what does the rest of the party do at that point in time? Do they start saying, we lost because of Trump? Now, losing one chamber by a little bit could be explained away as this is always the way it works. After one party takes the White House, the next midterm is we lose something. But if they lose big in the house, 40, 50, 60 seats, if they lose the House and the Senate. Now you're talking about a totally different scenario. Now, some Republicans will probably just go along with the same explanations they'll get from Trump. Fraud, it's unfair, they stole it, this kind of stuff. Some Republicans might distance themselves even if they do it carefully at first, because the cost of sticking with Trump is going to get bigger and bigger. As Trump is closer to leaving politics forever, you might start to hear shifts in language about we've got to rethink our priorities and messaging and that sort of thing. All those little changes can build into something a lot bigger, especially if the sense is, okay, Trump lost and he's toxic now. Trump still dominates the party and so going against him publicly will carry some risk. But there's going to be changing incentives as 2026 starts to kind of give way to 2028. And underneath all of it is this deeper issue about what happens when a political movement can't process losing in a normal way. Trump still hasn't admitted that Hillary got more votes in 2016. Trump still insists he won in 2020. Trump says that even though he won the popular and electoral votes in 2024, he says that if the real vote were counted, he would have won every state, including California and Massachusetts. That's crazy. That's just straight up whacked out. So if no matter what happens, any loss is explained as illegitimate, you learn nothing. You don't adjust. It's just a cycle that keeps repeating itself. What are they going to do and who are they going to blame when they lose in 2026? The caveat to all of this being we have to make sure they do lose. Just looking at what the betting markets say, the betting markets are predicting what people are going to do and if we don't go out and vote, then none of it will happen. That would be terrifying. Let's take a break and I'm going to present to you some of the billionaires and giga millionaires who have decided it is time to sacrifice. Not them, only you. As someone who spends hours every week in meetings, interviews and long form conversations, my biggest challenge used to be losing ideas the moment that the meeting ends or the conversation stops and I would try using my phone but it had a bunch of limitations and tradeoffs and so I started using Plod as my note taking assistant. Our sponsor Plod lets me capture in person conversations and phone calls and online meetings and it's all one workflow. With a single click the plod note pin s starts capturing everything can record up to 20 straight hours and and there's a physical button if there's a key moment I want to be able to go back to that you can press so I know what to revisit later. Everything syncs to the app, I can see full transcripts, speaker labels across multiple languages and PLOD will turn conversations into really clear summaries and to do lists. And I can also ask Plod questions later related to past discussions or for brainstorming instantly. And when I'm doing a longer meeting I switch to the Plod Note Pro, which can run up to 50 hours and it also picks up voices from further away. Privacy is critical for my work and PLOD meets top global privacy standards. If you're in meetings or interviews a lot, you can't afford to miss details and this is really worth checking out. Go to David pakman.com/plod or scan the QR code. The link is in the description. A lot of people assume all seafood is just seafood until they taste something that is on another level. Our sponsor, Wild Alaskan company is my go to because their portions cook beautifully, the flavor stands out. I've been a fan for years so we reached out to them about becoming a sponsor. What Wild Alaskan company does is deliver wild caught seafood right to your door. Perfectly portioned, frozen right off the boat. Locks in the quality and the taste and it makes weeknight meals really easy. But it feels like a step up. I've been cooking the coho salmon. Mild, versatile, hard to mess up even when I don't have a lot of time to make dinner. Just as important is how it's sourced. Wild Alaskan works with well managed fisheries. The they support sustainable harvesting. They support independent fishing communities. Everything is 100% wild caught, never farmed, no antibiotics, no additives, no shortcuts. Responsibly harvested seafood that you can feel good about eating and your first box is backed by a money back guarantee. Not all seafood is the same. Get seafood you can trust. Go to wildalaskan.com pacman for $35 off your first box of premium wild caught seafood. The link is in the description all right, well they have decided that you will sacrifice billionaires have decided you're going to sacrifice. Millionaires with $700 million to their name have said it's okay for you to pay more. Wow, that is, that is really something, isn't it? Here's something that's becoming clearer and clearer by the day. And once you kind of see it in this context, it's very hard to not see it. All of a sudden the people making the decisions are not the people paying the price. But that's obvious in a way. I'm talking about a deeper layer. Of course, it's always the case that when the President send troops and sends troops into war, the President doesn't pay the price. The president sits in D.C. or depending on whether the President is Trump in Florida playing golf at Mar a Lago and the President has Secret Service protection and the President is not going to be killed in combat. That's an old thing. That's been the case for a long time. But there's something else and there's something deeper. Trump, the billionaire senator, Rick Scott, the centi millionaire, Scott Besant, who's got, what is it, $500 million to his name. They have decided that the financial sacrifice that you are going to make is worth it to the country. They've got hundreds of millions or billions of dollars. But you are going to have to sacrifice financially and pay higher prices. Take Rick Scott, he says to Maria Bartiromo on Fox. I know that gas prices are hitting people. I know that food prices are hitting people. His heart goes out to them. Right? But Trump's doing the right thing and apparently paying more for everything is part of the plan and it's worth it for what we're doing in Iran. 90% of Americans disagree. Listen to Rick Scott. Listen to his tone. He certainly doesn't sound very worried to me. He sounds like he's simply explaining a trade off. It's not emotionally salient in any way. Or what are you going to do about this?
- [20:39]
Caroline Levitt
I mean, do you expect this is
- [20:41]
David Pakman
going to be over in the next couple of weeks and enough time so that people are not feeling this pain of higher prices going into the midterms? Well, number one, I grew up in a poor family, so I know this impact on, on gas and food prices, all that is really impacting people and my heart goes out to them. But he understands you. He feels so passionate about. Listen, I know, I know, I know, I know the President is doing the right thing. It's better to make sure we are not going to be destroyed by a nuclear weapon or ballistic missiles. Nugular nuclear weapon. This is a. He, he made a tough decision, which was the right decision and he will do everything he can to make sure we did. This ends quickly. So I'm appreciating what the President's done and I'd like oil prices come down, but I want to be safe first. Yeah, you can tell he really sounds devastated by the fact that other Americans are paying more money. It's really tough for him. Guys, guys. Now then you've got Donald Trump himself talking about rising oil prices, rising gas prices, and he says something very interesting, which is he expected that it would be worse. He went into this thing willingly with the expectation that gas and oil prices would be even higher. It's not that prices are too high or that people are struggling. It's. I thought it would have been a lot worse and I was okay with that. We're not giving a nuclear weapon to
- [22:03]
Trump Administration Spokesperson
terrorist and we're knocking the hell out of them.
- [22:07]
David Pakman
Their Navy's gone, their Air Force is gone, their leaders are gone, their anti aircraft is gone. Everything. And no, I expected worse. I really thought I. That oil prices would go much higher. When I think we set every record. Every record. Listen, what Trump is saying there is. I actually was okay with Americans paying even more than what is now $4 a gallon for gas. And it was still he was willing to make that sacrifice. Now, of course, he's not making any sacrifice. Caroline Levitt was similarly asked. There are people who voted for Trump because he promised no new wars and lower gas prices. We've got new wars and higher gas prices. And Caroline Levitt is just like, he's doing all of this for you, the American people, many of whom voted for President Trump for the first time in 2024. You're hoping to have no more wars and, and to have lower prices now with the war taking place and with gas prices going up. Curious what President Trump's message would be to those voters who kind of swung into his coalition in 2024, but maybe don't feel the administration is going as they had expected.
- [23:13]
Caroline Levitt
President Trump is doing this for you. He's doing this for young people so that we are no longer threatened by a rogue terrorist regime in the Middle east that seeks to kill the brave men and women who serve in our country in the Middle East.
- [23:25]
David Pakman
Any of you get it? He's doing it for you. Here's all the reasons why it's great. So what's going on? You are paying more, things are getting more expensive, and you're being told it's good for you. It's like when you try to tell a picky little kid, eat the broccoli, it's good for you. And they're like, it doesn't really seem that way. This is somehow benefiting you. That's the through line. Decisions are being made at the top by people with enormous wealth who are completely insulated from the consequences. And everybody else has got to accept it. And you've got to be happy. Be happy about the higher prices because they're, because we're winning in Iran. And be happy about the instability in the stock market and for your retirement account. And if you question it, I don't know that you really understand, but I think people do understand. You know, there are some ways in which the country has failed the national IQ test. There are tens of millions of people out there who voted for Donald Trump three times. You want to talk about failing an IQ test, there it is. At the same time, people know when their grocery bill is up, but they were told it would go down. People know when putting gas in their car costs more even though they were told it was going to cost less. So they understand the promises that got them to vote one way. And then they see that something very different is what's happening. And it's a disconnect that isn't subtle. It is not hidden behind a complicated policy explanation where, you know, I did promise to cut the deficit and I kind of did, but it's because of the interest that it's kind of technical. This isn't that. He said our gas prices would be down and they're up 50% in two months. He said that he wasn't going to do wars and he's doing a new war. And he said there's going to be more manufacturing jobs than ever and there aren't. And the people at the top are saying, effectively, you will sacrifice. We've decided and you're going to like it. So going back to our discussion from the first segment, how long is that going to work? Biden and Harris learned it doesn't work. You can tell people everything's awesome until you're blue in the face. If they feel that it doesn't work, then they're going to vote on that basis. And there are political consequences to that. Telling people that the higher costs are good for them is not going to land indefinitely. I believe it is already not landing. And it's going to be a major problem for Republicans come a few months from now. Caroline Levitt does not like being held accountable. Caroline Levitt does not like getting fact checked. Caroline Levitt is running out of options and panicking from having to defend Trump. Lie after fiasco after lie after cover up after fiasco after lie every single day. Caroline Levitt was asked about the fact that Iran has completely denied any negotiations are taking place. Trump said, we're making big progress on negotiations. Iran said, huh, we're not negotiating. Trump said, we've got a 15 point plan and they've agreed to most of those points. And Iran said, huh, we haven't agreed to any of these points. And so Caroline Levitt has asked, how do you explain the discrepancy? And Caroline Levitt says, I think the American people know who to believe. I don't know about that, Caroline, but
- [26:29]
Caroline Levitt
just to follow up, because America, Americans are sort of seeing these conflicting messages between the United States and Iran. I know the President insists that negotiations are underway, as you just mentioned. He's also said that Iran has agreed to most of the 15 points. We just heard from Iran. Again, they're saying no negotiations are taking place. They're calling the proposal excessive, unrealistic. So how do you square that? How do you explain that discrepancy between the two? I think the American people are smart enough not to take the word of a terrorist regime that has chanted death to America for 46, seven years at their word. And I hope the journalists in this room are wise enough not to take an Iranian regime that is repeatedly lied about our country, about our values, about everyone in this room, frankly, for nearly five decades.
- [27:14]
David Pakman
So listen, the Iranian regime is a terrible theocratic extremist regime. There is no question about that. But Trump lies all the time also.
- [27:25]
Trump Administration Spokesperson
So.
- [27:25]
David Pakman
So if the idea is go by who regularly tells you the truth, Trump or the Iranian regime, that's a pretty difficult one because Trump lies constantly. Caroline was asked about Trump not attending CPAC this year and she said it was a scheduling issue. Trump spent the weekend golfing. Consider that switching topics.
- [27:48]
Trump Administration Spokesperson
The President has always attended cpac. He did not this year.
- [27:51]
David Pakman
Why did he not attend?
- [27:53]
Trump Administration Spokesperson
And this was he believes CPAC is becoming less relevant?
- [27:55]
Caroline Levitt
No, I don't think he believes that at all. In fact, he loves CPAC and has a very good relationship with the great people who run it, Mercedes and Matt Schlapp. It was just simply for scheduling purposes this year with it being in Texas, it was best for the President's schedule and what he has on his plate right now.
- [28:13]
David Pakman
You know, Trump was in Florida golfing the entire time. It's like a two hour Flight from Florida to Texas really wouldn't have been a big deal. And if Trump was so busy, why did he spend the weekend golfing? Now, what do I believe the real explanation is? I don't know that it's that Trump sees CPAC as less relevant. But CPAC did cheer for Trump's impeachment. So there is clearly some kind of a schism there. And it was a call was made that it would be best for Trump not to not to go. Now this is maybe my favorite clip. Caroline Levitt pulls out therapy talk. We hear you, we see you. Your feelings are valid. She was asked about the cost of diesel and how this is crushing truck drivers and she goes we hear you, we hear you. You are heard, you have a voice here. And then secondly, the cost of Diesel
- [29:08]
Trump Administration Spokesperson
is averaging at 530A gallon right now.
- [29:12]
David Pakman
What's the message from the Trump administration to truck drivers who are dealing with those high fuel costs right now?
- [29:18]
Caroline Levitt
Again, we understand, we hear you, we see you, we are fully tracking, you are seen this short term fluctuation in oil and in diesel prices. And that's why the President and the administration have continually announced robust actions to provide stability in the global energy market, as you know, put political risk insurance. One of those actions allowing countries to purchase sanctioned oil just to increase the supply. In the meantime we've worked to release 400 billion barrels of oil in refined products as well. We issued the 60 Day Jones act waiver. All of this has with the goal of increasing supply to so anyway, at
- [29:57]
David Pakman
least they're tracking it, right that everybody should feel so much better about the high gas prices because we hear you, we see you, you are seen and you matter. Thanks Caroline, really, really appreciate it. Caroline Levitt is then asked about Donald Trump's truth social post where she said, where Trump said rather that if Iran doesn't do what he wants, he will blow up and obliterate their civilian infrastructure. Now this would be a war crime. Okay? And here is how Caroline Levitt response
- [30:31]
Trump Administration Spokesperson
president posted this morning about, you know, his threat that I'm leaving Iran. He said we might blowing up and completely obliterating all of their electric generating plants, oil wells, Harg island and possibly all desalinization plans. Under international law, striking civilian infrastructure like that is generally prohibited. Why is the president threatening what would amount to potentially a war crime with the US military? And how do you square that with the administration? Administration repeatedly saying that the U.S. does not target civilians.
- [30:59]
Caroline Levitt
Ms. Look, the President has made it quite clear to the Iranian regime at this Moment in time, as evidenced by the statement that you just read that their best move is to make a deal or else. The United States Armed Forces has capabilities beyond their wildest imagination, and the President is not afraid to use them. That's not what I said, Garrett. And you're saying the word potential for a reason, because I'm sure some experts are telling you that in your ear to try.
- [31:25]
David Pakman
Well, it's potential because he hasn't done
- [31:27]
Caroline Levitt
it yet to ask me that question. Of course, this administration in the United States Armed Forces will always act within the confines of the law, but with
- [31:35]
David Pakman
respect to the entire war appears to be illegal. So I don't know how she's getting that. Could you kind of weigh in on the President threatening war crimes? Well, listen, we are the most powerful. We've got the biggest missiles, we've got the best bombs, and everybody should really be on alert that the United States is going to do what Trump decides me to do. Right, but it's a war crime, isn't it? That doesn't really. Doesn't really make sense. Well, but we are so powerful. Recall that yesterday or the day before, Donald Trump claimed that there is a massive military complex being built beneath his new ballroom. Caroline Levitt is asked, can you tell us about that? She says, no, I can't.
- [32:12]
Trump Administration Spokesperson
Can you tell us more about this
- [32:13]
David Pakman
massive military complex underneath the President's new ballroom?
- [32:17]
Caroline Levitt
I cannot tell you more about that, actually. As a matter of fact, however, the military is making some upgrades to their facilities here at the White House, and I'm not privy to provide any more details on that.
- [32:30]
David Pakman
Let me give you the real answer. Okay? Trump may have made that up, in which case she shouldn't talk about it because it's fake. Or Trump mentioned it, but it's classified. He's not supposed to even be talking about that. In which case we shouldn't even know and there shouldn't be questions coming to Caroline Levitt about this. Those are the kind of two possibilities here. Finally, the schedule in Iran, we were told three to four weeks. We're entering week five. They've sort of shifted to four to six weeks. What about the timeline, Caroline? And she goes, we are right on schedule. The cake is going to be baked at exactly the right moment.
- [33:09]
Jessica Tarlov
I know President Trump says we're ahead of schedule in achieving his military objectives in Iran. He laid out that four to six week timetable for this conflict, and we're
- [33:18]
David Pakman
now within week five.
- [33:20]
Jessica Tarlov
So how do you square kind of those two?
- [33:23]
Caroline Levitt
Well, four to six weeks, estimated timeline. Again, you just said we're on day 30 of the operation. I just provided you with some of the updates from the Pentagon directly. And achieving the objectives and the military has been enormously successful. I think we should all be very proud of our armed forces for what they have done over the past 30 days. The mission will continue until the objectives are achieved. And that four to six week timeline does remain. Right now I don't have.
- [33:47]
David Pakman
Yeah, the four to six, six week timeline means we've got eight days left. I mean, I don't. I'm just looking at a calendar. I don't have any special ability. I'm not making any predictions. It's just kind of math and time. We've got a few days left before it would be time to start packing it up. And more troops are going in than the number that are coming out. Does Caroline Levitt have any influence over that? I don't know. Does she have any control? Not really. Does she have the ability to defend any last harebrained, ridiculous thing that Donald Trump says? Yes, she does have that ability, and some say she does it well. But it is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain these press briefings given how everything they're doing is imploding. Many VPNs claim they don't track you. Only one can prove it, and that's our sponsor, Private Internet access. Private Internet access is the only VPN with multiple real world court cases showing that when law enforcement requests user logs, they don't have them because they don't log anything. Their software is open source. Anyone can inspect the code and confirm that there's transparency that you do not normally see in the VPN industry. You can use one account on unlimited devices, phone, laptop, tablet, even your router. Works with Netflix and YouTube and streaming services worldwide. It is like a secure tunnel between you and the Internet that nobody can see into. I've been using PIA for years. It's one of the few privacy or security tools I truly trust. Get 83% off just 203amonth plus 4 extra months free at PIA vpn.com/pacman the link is in the description. There's something special about having real quality bread at home. Fresh from the oven, it elevates any meal and our sponsor, Wild Grain makes it easy. Wild Grain is a baked from frozen subscription box for sourdough breads, artisanal pastries and fresh pasta. Everything arrives frozen, goes in the oven, no thawing, ready in 25 minutes or less. Wild Grain uses simple ingredients and slow fermentation to give their bread real depth of flavor. What I like most is the flexibility. I can keep sourdough loaves and croissants stocked in my freezer, bake what I need. No prep, no cleanup. Tastes like something you'd get at a small specialty bakery. But you don't have to spend an hour driving to the bakery and back or making them from scratch. Wild Grain boxes are fully customizable. Along with the new variety box, there's the gluten free vegan and protein boxes. Wild grain is offering $30 off your first box plus free croissants for life. When you go to wild grain.com/pacman or use promo code Pacman at checkout. The link is in the description Trump dementia has hit mainstream Ms. Now the former MSNBC is now openly talking Does Trump have the mental acuity? Does Trump have the cognitive wherewithal to do this job? They're talking about his confusion. They're talking about when he makes stuff up completely out of thin air. And what I think is very valuable about this is they're not just analyzing it from the standpoint of Donald Trump's dishonesty being the explanation. They're looking at it as a possible cognitive decline issue. Check this out.
- [37:13]
Katie Tour
Is Donald Trump well? Is his head in the presidency? Does he have the mental health acuity to leave this country? More people are starting to doubt that, beyond, of course, Democrats who have always doubted it. This is being borne out in two new polls, the first one from the Washington Post, ABC and Ipsos, which finds a number of people who think he lacks the mental sharpness to serve effectively is now climbing 56%. And the second from Reuters and Ipsos, which shows 6 in 10Americans now say President Trump is becoming more erratic as he ages. That includes a growing number of Democrats, Independents and Republicans. Why is that? Well, the apparent sleeping during Cabinet meetings and Oval Office visits probably. They're not helping folks.
- [38:00]
David Pakman
This is legacy in corporate media that's doing this.
- [38:02]
Katie Tour
Neither are the stories about how he's forcing his top aides to wear his preferred brand of shoes and buying them in incorrect sizes that he guest they wear. He also doesn't sound as energetic and clear as he did even a few years ago. Comparatively speaking, of course. Case in point, the Wild decides mid thought. He has always done that to a degree. But now he's doing it in the middle of White House Cabinet meetings, largely defined by deadly serious issues like the war in Iran or alleged political prosecution.
- [38:33]
David Pakman
This should be covered constantly. If we had a responsible corporate media, this would have been a story for the last at least, at least six years, maybe even longer. Katie Tour is bringing up real issues here. The speech decline, the wild decides, the erratic behavior. And she even goes further and points out that Trump is just making things up that aren't real, that don't happen.
- [39:00]
Katie Tour
All right. The thing is, the company that makes Sharpies told the Washington Post the conversation, the conversation the president said he had with the head of Sharpie about those pens never happened. Which means if Truhe made it up and interrupted a Cabinet meeting to tell a story, he fabricated or hallucinated about his favorite pen. Again, this is not the first time he's been caught making stuff up. Here he is talking about Maryland Governor Wes Moore.
- [39:24]
David Pakman
Last summer I met him at the Army Navy game. They said, oh, there's Governor Moore. He'd love to see you. He came over to me, hugged me, shook my hand. You. You were there. He said, so you're the greatest president of my lifetime. I've asked Wes Moore about that. It never happened.
- [39:40]
Katie Tour
Ok. So Wes Moore quickly came out and said that conversation was imaginary. It never happened. The month before that, the White House struggled to defend a story the president told about his uncle John Trump. He had claimed Ted Kaczynski, AKA the Unabomber, at mit. Except John Tom Trump died more than a decade before Kaczynski was identified, and Kaczynski never attended mit. He's told that story multiple times in the past. I could go on and you know, I will for a moment longer. There's a yarn he told about a former president recently telling him they wish they had Trump's courage to go into Iran. They have all denied it, all the living presidents. There's the one he claimed where he claimed Tucker Carlson reached out to profusely apologize amid a MAGA split over US Involvement in Israel's strikes on Iran, which Carlson has put flat out denied. There are also the countless stories about his friends. You know, friends who are getting cheaper, quote, fat shots overseas. Or the friends who claim they've illegally seen illegal voting, or the boat company owners who complain about electric engines and then praise him for being smart enough to ask about electrocution and whether it's better to be electrocuted by a boat battery or eaten by a shark.
- [40:55]
David Pakman
Okay, I think you get she's going through the full repertoire. You understand what's going on. So there's two sides to this on. All right. Number one, there is a little bit of a too little, too late kind of thing. This is something that some in independent media have been all over for years at this point. And there was hesitation from a lot of the people in legacy and corporate media to just deal with this for what it is. And I think that there's a lot of different reasons why that may be. You know, I spoke to Jake Tapper about what some of those reasons are and we've spoken to others. Is it legal liability? Is it standards? What is it that is preventing them that they believe they don't have it dead to rights in order to go to air with the counter also is better late than never for sure. And there is a question as to what is the value at this point when Donald Trump has no more elections left to run. It would have been useful to know about the cognitive decline in the lead up to the 2020 election. It would have been useful in the lead up to the 2024 election. Now that Donald Trump is term limited, he can't run again, period. What is the value? I still think there is value. And the value comes in two different things. Number one, if the public increasingly seems sees Donald Trump as non compost, mentis, can't do it mentally, it's not there. There is going to be more skepticism about what he is doing. There is going to be more activation against letting a guy who can't think straight do the things that he is doing. And there will be more pressure to take the proverbial keys away. I think that there is value in that. And number two, it's probably bad for Republicans in the same way that Trump was attacking Joe Biden's mental acuity and then saying Democrats are covering it up. We if, if the public comes to believe, know and intuit that Donald Trump is not cognitively there by definition, you would then look at how are other Republicans reacting to it and you would deal with that and them accordingly. And maybe you don't vote for them in November. Maybe you think differently about whether they deserve another term. So I think that it is too little, too late. But there is still value in it and I'm glad that it is being discussed. Donald Trump is suffering one of the worst polling collapses of any presidency and by far the worst of his presidency. We have a brand new poll from my undergraduate alma mater, the University of Massachusetts Amherst. That's right. It's not Amherst. Please, no more Amherst. That's not the way we say it. It's UMass Amherst. More importantly, they have Trump at 33% approval. That is the lowest of his entire presidency. To say it's bad is an understatement. And it gets worse. Last April, Trump was at 44% approval. Last July, Trump was at 38% approval. And now he is at 33% approval. CNN has a report about other Trump numbers. And his net approval has fallen to -17, making him the most unpopular president in the polling era history.
- [44:01]
Political Analyst
Boss, take a look here. Take a look at Donald Trump's overall net approval rating. This is the lowest of his term, the lowest of his second term. We're talking about minus 17 points, 17 points underwater. And unlike in Donald Trump's first term in which he was negative basically throughout his entire term, Trump actually started off in positive territory here in his second term, but now he's at the lowest point of his second term. But there's an even bigger comparison to be made. Okay, so obviously Trump was elected once back in 2016, then he took a four year break and then of course, he's serving in his second term and it's his second presidency. So I went back and I looked at all of the presidents at this point in a presidency. All of them, all of them at this point in a presidency. And guess what? Donald Trump is the lowest ever. The lowest ever at this point in a presidency. Lower than Joe Biden, lower than Jimmy Carter, lower than Ronald Reagan. He's lower than all, all of them.
- [45:01]
David Pakman
Okay, I think you get it. The reason for all of this is very simple. It's everything. Like it's, it's, you rarely get a political analysis that is, that is this simple. 71% of Americans say he's failing on inflation. 61% say he's failing on job creation. 64% say tariffs are a disaster. 92% don't want boots on the ground in Iran. Even immigration, which used to be one of his strongest issues, has flipped. And most Americans now say he's handling that poorly. And so this is, there's opposition to Trump, but there's also a rejection of the actual policy. When you surpass 60% disapproval, that is less just the natural polarization of the country. It's, you've got a broad majority that actively thinks you're failing. And it is not just Democrats that are responsible for the drag down. Support among men is down for Trump. Working class voters is down, independents is down, moderates is the down, non maga Republican support is down. And historically these sorts of numbers, -17 now on, on net approval, these are historically disastrous and impactful numbers. When you look at modern presidencies, approval ratings in the low 30s mean you're going to get crushed in the midterms look at Barack Obama back in 2010. Obama, his numbers were in the mid-40s and it didn't go well. Clinton in 94, when Newt Gingrich, as I write about in my book the Echo Machine, became Speaker of the House with the Contract with America or whatever they were calling it. And that was a big anti Democratic wave. And they were polling better than Trump is right now. Much better than Trump is right now. And Trump in his first term was in the low to mid-40s and they still lost the house in 2018. So these are disastrous numbers. It's also happening relatively quickly. As far as Trump's term. We still have months before the midterms. Trump could be at 31 or 30. I just doubt he'd get into the 20s because of how polarized the country is. There's a lot of people that just will always support the guy, but he could be at 30 or 31. And then we layer in the context, people are economically dissatisfied. The war with Iran is unpopular. Most people don't, don't want this. They don't want the escalation. You've got fractures inside the Republican coalition. We saw it at cpac, we're seeing it with Megyn Kelly, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Rand Paul, etc. And it erodes confidence when Republicans see more and more Republicans saying, this guy sold us something and he is not delivering. So understand the context of midterms. It's not really about persuasion. General elections, presidential elections are often more about persuading people about a particular candidate or a point of view. Midterms are mostly turnout. The lower presidential approval is, the less passionate and motivated Republican voters are going to be to go out and vote for the party that put Trump there and said, this is our guy. And so we're seeing polling catch up to the reality of the situation. It is not even early stage political decline at this point. It's sort of like a, like a mid stage political decline. And these numbers are truly disastrous. Now, it is also the case that among those who describe themselves as maga, Trump is still popular, but that is not a majority or even a plurality of this country. So we have a real opportunity here to not only take control back of at least the House in November, but to humiliate Donald Trump and to humiliate the Republicans who said that this was a good idea. I say we take that opportunity. That's just me. Scams and identity theft rarely start with a hacked password. They usually start when your personal information is easy to find online. Your address, phone number, relatives employment history. That information lives on countless data broker sites on the Internet, accessible to almost anyone unless you actively remove it. 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Do you think it gets boring or infuriating for Jessica Tarlov to tell her mayo brained co hosts on the five that they don't know what the hell they're talking about? Once again, Jessica Tarlov points out to her colleagues and maybe they're her friends. I don't know that all along Donald Trump could have gotten the TSA agents paid. He chose not to and therefore it can't possibly be the fault of Democrats that they were not paid for as long as they were. Listen, it's not Jessica's fault that her co hosts brains are filled with that residue in your shower drain. That's a weird combination of soap and shampoo and hair and skin cells and that that's what's in their brains. That's just not her fault. She she's doing the best she can and here she is explaining to them this was obviously not the fault of Democrats.
- [51:06]
Jessica Tarlov
All of it. Donald Trump admitting that he could have paid TSA agents all along is an enormous own goal. There was a Senate passed bill to fund the TSA that did not include any of the ICE reforms that Democrats were after. It passed 100 to 0 over voice vote and then Trump and Mike Johnson decided to blow the thing up so that they could continue this. Even people like Mike Lee who's out there going on about the SAVE act all the time and directing you to page 12, line 22 or whatever for some esoteric loophole that he thinks saves the bill voted to pay the TSA agents. It's completely on the Republicans at this point and everybody knows it that's exactly right.
- [51:51]
David Pakman
Everybody knows it, but not everybody's willing to admit it. And there are a lot of Republicans continuing to insist it's thanks to Trump they got paid, but it was because of Democrats that they weren't getting paid. When we know that that is very much not true. Now, I want to interject a funny and sad interlude here. Jesse Watters tried saying that it is the left that panics and goes into crisis when they lose an election. But correct me if I'm wrong, Trump tried to overthrow an election that he didn't win. He had the panic attack. He threw the temper tantrum. And any time they lose an election, they have a panic attack.
- [52:33]
Trump Administration Spokesperson
It's always a crisis when they're not in power. Every time Trump beats them, democracy is under assault. Come on. Hillary accused him of stealing the election in 16.
- [52:44]
David Pakman
That is one of the most tired talking points, one of the most tired talking points that I have heard. Hillary Clinton did not allege theft of the election in the way that Donald Trump has alleged theft in every single election he's participated in. Hillary Clinton accurately indicated that Russia did have its finger on the scales. Now, was it the deciding factor? I don't know. It was pretty close back in 2016, certainly electorally, but there is no equivalency there. And the amount of projection on the right at this point, everything that they are accusing the left of, they are guilty of themselves. They did eventually get to the topic of Donald Trump's approval, which is terrible, absolutely terrible. And Jesse Watters pulls out that he has Trump at a 52% approval, which is an interesting one.
- [53:38]
Jessica Tarlov
36 of them have already announced Trump's approval is about 40%. If you want to be super generous. And historically speaking, when it's less. You already told Rasmussen or the guy in the bow tie.
- [53:52]
David Pakman
Yeah, guys, the guy, the guy in the bow tie has Trump at 52. That's a really, really powerful, really powerful poll. And then finally, and I just, I feel bad on some level for Jessica having to deal with this crap comedian, Greg Gutfeld, which. The only funny thing about Greg Gutfeld is that people still call him a comedian. I've never heard the guy say anything funny.
- [54:19]
Jessica Tarlov
He
- [54:21]
David Pakman
talks about Trump and narcissism and poll numbers, and Jessica's ready for it. Gotta.
- [54:26]
Katie Tour
You gotta hope that. Would you do every night?
- [54:27]
Trump Administration Spokesperson
I hope to get. Yes.
- [54:28]
Political Analyst
That's what I have done.
- [54:30]
David Pakman
And he's the only politician we've ever
- [54:31]
Trump Administration Spokesperson
had who is always willing to spend
- [54:33]
Political Analyst
political capital on something other than just getting himself Reelected. Yeah. It's the complete opposite of how he's
- [54:40]
David Pakman
painted as this narcissist who's worried about his poll numbers, when in fact all he's trying to do is build capital so he can spend it.
- [54:46]
Jessica Tarlov
Not worried about his poll numbers. He says everything is. He does like good poll numbers.
- [54:51]
David Pakman
Yes.
- [54:51]
Katie Tour
Yeah.
- [54:51]
Political Analyst
But when they're down, when they're low, he's like, whatever. Doesn't bother him.
- [54:55]
David Pakman
He says at whatever, folks. When Trump is presented with a less than stellar poll number, which quite frankly is every day because his polling is flushable, he says those are fake polls. And then he cites weird email surveys claiming that they are polls and that he has 97% approval. Thank you. Everything that they tell you about Trump is a lie. And when we talk about cult psychology and the way that cult members sort of relate to the leaders and all of this sort of thing, one of the things that continually comes up is that the areas in which they most hyperbolically defend the leader are usually the areas that everybody knows the leader is most vulnerable. So when, when Greg Gutfeld, you could just talk about policy, right? But Gutfeld chooses to go down this path of, you know, they paint him as this narcissist worried about poll numbers, but he really isn't that. He's not that at all. Oh, he's extraordinarily narcissistic, and he is insanely consumed with poll numbers to the point that we know that he gets printouts of favorable tweets and bogus survey results in order to kind of keep him pacified like a little kid so that they don't whine. All of the things that we have been told about Trump by Fox News are untrue. And his greatest vulnerabilities are that which they portray constantly as his greatest strengths. Hey, this is a really funny one. I am. We looked at Megyn Kelly doing this exact same thing. Fox hosts, including Laura Ingraham, are increasingly suggesting that Trump is too dumb to understand the implications of the decisions he makes. And I'm going to play a clip for you that is almost beyond belief. In this clip, Laura Ingraham says, you know, I don't know that Trump was fully briefed about what could go wrong in Iran. I don't know if Trump was able to take it all in and understand how complicated it could get. Laura Ingraham is trying to defend Trump's actions in Iran sort of by saying he might be too stupid to even have understood the complexities of it. This is not the powerful defense of your Dear Leader, that maybe you think it is. Laura, take a listen to this.
- [57:33]
Laura Ingraham
So if we cannot come to some type of peace deal with people who can't be trusted, then what? Well, looks like the US Is going to escalate. President Trump is already warning of widespread further damage, threatening to hit electric generating plants, oil wells and Carg island, as he's reportedly considering sending ground troops in to secure the uranium. Now, knowing what little time we have and how quickly this can spiral out of control, we still have a lot of questions. For instance, was the President fully briefed about the risks of all of this from the beginning?
- [58:14]
David Pakman
What a poor baby.
- [58:16]
Laura Ingraham
And was he then able to take it all in and understand the complexity of this, how complex it could actually get, and further possibilities of casualties or other damage, the difficulty of dealing with these people? Or was he told this would be relatively quick in and out?
- [58:35]
David Pakman
So if we can think about that, think about that. If Trump knows more than everyone, if he knows more than the generals, if he knows more than his cabinet secretaries, if he knows more than the diplomats and the doctors and the machine gunners and the estheticians and the plastic surgeons and. And if he knows more than everybody now the excuses, he might not have been properly briefed. Wouldn't a genius like Trump recognize when he is not being fully briefed? If he is so smart and so good at everything? If he was given an incomplete briefing, wouldn't he be knowledgeable enough to say, hey, you know what? You haven't briefed me about the downside risks. You haven't briefed me about how likely this really is to be a quick in and out. I think you need to give me more information. No, if he really knows more than everyone and is more equipped than everybody to make these decisions, then he wouldn't be at risk of an incomplete briefing because he's so damn smart. And so Megyn Kelly we talked about earlier this week is going, who suckered Trump into this? I thought Trump was unsuckerable, unsuckable, unsuckerable. I thought that that could never happen to him. I thought Trump was the decider. I thought the buck stopped with Trump. But Megyn Kelly is like, who gave him the idea that this was a good thing to do. So Trump has no agency. And similarly, here is Laura Ingraham. As the Iran invasion collapses around Trump, economies and tatters and gas prices, prices are up. They're about to lose. Who knows how much they're going to lose in November, partially because of this. And she goes, well, you know, I wonder if he was really honestly presented with what might happen. I thought that this was the top guy in every way and would never be tricked or bamboozled in that way. Laura. One more clip from Laura Ingraham. She says about the Democratic Party, we've been talking about projection. Listen to what she says about the Democratic Party. It sounds like someone else to me. Tell me if you can figure out who.
- [60:46]
Laura Ingraham
Which perfectly sums up the Democrat Party. All stunts, no solutions, no policies, certainly no policies that will make your life better, that will help grow the economy or keep our streets safer. It's only retribution and punishment for the American people. And of course, a push to dismantle our American tradition.
- [61:06]
David Pakman
She says that the Democratic Party offers no policies that will make your life better, only retribution and punishment for the American people. Now, there are a lot of good criticisms of the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party has not been good enough on immigration and crime to convince enough voters that they care about that issue. The Democratic Party on housing has not put together what I would consider a cohesive and coherent plan for exactly what they would. There are criticisms of the Democratic Party, but retribution and punishment are not what I associate with the Democratic Party. It's what we're seeing right now. It's Trump weaponizing the DOJ to go after his political adversaries. It's the lists and the confrontations and the detainments and the entire thing that's going, that's what is really going on here from the Republican Party. And so much like with Greg Gutfeld earlier on the five, Laura Ingraham here, Megyn Kelly before, when it's convenient. Trump is the ultimate authority, the ultimate genius. He's omnipotent and omniscient and nobody can get in his way. And he knows everything and will solve. But all of a sudden, when it starts to look not so good, who tricked Trump? How did he fall for this? Who convinced him to do this thing he would never do if he had totally understood it? Oh, so he doesn't understand everything, huh? Well, I'm not so sure. These are the people who want to endlessly tell you that this is the best possible thing that would have happened to the country. And also when it seems like it's not, it's because someone tricked Trump. That sounds pretty weak to me. I've got to tell you, on the bonus show for you today, where am I going? How long will I be there? And what is the plan for the show while I am gone? I'm going to be doing something very, very interesting. I will see you on the bonus show. You can sign up and get instant Saudi Arabia and Russia will repeat. I accidentally hit a button on my soundboard. That was. That was a genuine accident. Join pacman.com get the bonus show. I'll see you then.