Transcript
David Pakman (0:00)
Democrats just flipped a Republican held office in a suburb of Texas where Trump got close to 60% of the vote. And this is a pattern that we are seeing. Then we have a story that really has been under the radar, but is very serious, which is the coordinated surreptitious effort underway right now, which would significantly restrict abortion access nationally. We're told all about states rights, and yet they are figuring out a way to try to effectively end abortion nationally. We're going to break down what's really going on. And also today, the White House wants you to believe that Donald Trump had a routine dental visit in Florida on a Saturday. Even though there's a full dental facility at the White House, millions of people aren't buying it. And speaking of Trump, an alarming moment during a speech where he fell asleep standing up like a horse. It's Mr. Ed, a talking horse. Plus, Marjorie Taylor Greene claims that Donald Trump said something truly shocking involving her son. We will talk about whether Democrats are in position to really take control of Congress in 2026. All of that, and. It's happening right now in Texas. Democrats flipped another Republican office. If you are a Republican strategist and you're looking at this and you're trying to figure out what's going to happen in November, you should be panicking. Perlin, Texas, is a Republican leaning suburb of Houston, and Democrats just flipped the mayor's office. Now, the race is technically nonpartisan, meaning that the candidates don't run as Democrats or Republicans. They don't declare parties. But we still know who backed whom. Democrats backed Quentin Wilts, and he won and defeated Tony Carbone, who was backed by Republicans. Wilts happens to also be the first black person ever elected to be the mayor of Poland. It was a very tight race, basically 51 to 49. The margin really isn't the story here. The location is the story. The fact that Trump won with about 60% in this exact area is the story. Perland is in a county that has voted reliably for Republicans for year after year after year and again in recent elections. Trump was getting 60% of the vote. This is the sort of place that Republicans don't even worry about. They just assume that they're going to win. That said, we don't have to do anything. We barely have to campaign, and they lost. And what this actually means, you know what? One local race does not flip Congress. In fact, this isn't even a congressional race. It's a mayoral race. It doesn't change the Senate, but it does something different, which is it signals movement and it portrays possibility if people engage, if people are active, if people get out and vote.
Sean Spicer (3:14)
And.
David Pakman (3:15)
And we are now seeing a very important pattern, which is when you look at local elections, Democrats have been overperforming since November of 2024. When you look at local races that are not special elections, you see Democrats flipping Republican seats, but you don't see Republicans flipping Democratic seats. And then you look at Republican areas, and you see Republican turnout really struggling. And midterm elections are often won and lost at the end of the day by turnout. In general, voters have less strong feelings for congressional and Senate races than they do about the presidential. People really liked Trump or really despised Trump or liked Harris, despised Harris. And that motivates a lot of people to vote in midterm elections. It's less about who do I get out and vote for, because I don't feel as strongly about the people. It's, do I even get out and vote at all? And you might have sort of satisfactory feelings about your senator, but it might not be strong enough one way or the other. The feeling, the attachment, the level of support you have to even get out and vote at all. And so this is why depressed Republican turnout in red areas is also potentially a major problem for Republicans. So then we get to, well, what is happening in Texas and in Texas at the state level right now, James Tallarico, the Democratic nominee, is polling significantly ahead, certainly for Texas, significantly ahead of both possible Republican candidates. I'll remind you that the Republican primary is going to a runoff because neither Ken Paxton nor John Cornyn, who's the incumbent senator right now, got 50% of the vote in the initial primary. So they are going to be having a runoff. In hypothetical polling, Talarico is polling about six and a half points ahead of Paxton, and Talarico is polling five points ahead of Cornyn. Now, we've seen this before, we've seen situations before where before the summer, there's a Democratic challenger in Texas polling well against an incumbent Republican. And then it doesn't quite work out and the Republican ends up winning. And that could happen this time, but it might not. And we have a situation where Texas may finally be ready to make that shift we've been talking about for so long. You know, for years and years, I've been covering this stuff a long time. You hear these, you know, the demographic changes in Texas. Texas is no longer going to be a reliable red state. A Democrat might even win in the presidential election in Texas, a Democrat might win the Senate. And then we get to the election and it doesn't happen. And it actually might happen this year because you look at the polling, you look at the dissatisfaction with Trump even among some Republicans and we could have the mayoral race in Poland of this weekend signaling a potential Republican disaster in November. However, it requires people to get out and vote. We are going to be doing a kind of path to the Senate soon on the show which will outline the key races and what is the Democratic path to the Senate. A lot of you have written in and said how exactly could Democrats take the Senate? But there are real opportunities here. And the most important 30,000 foot view element of this is that the numbers for, for Democrats after November of 2024 are extraordinary. I had a conversation that was recorded Yesterday for Tara McGowan's podcast about is the DNC doing a good job or a bad job? And I explained to her, listen, when I think of Ken Martin, the new ish DNC chair, he inspires nothing. I feel no passion. I feel it's just, you know, the, this milquetoast stuff that we've all gotten sick of from the Democratic Party. And also for better or worse, you can say it's Ken Martin or not. Democrats have an incredible record in special elections and off year elections since November of 2024. We now have to make sure it doesn't get screwed up between now and November. So incredible results in Perland, Texas. First black mayor there, Democratically supported mayor. Fascinating. Can we turn that into a bigger turning of the tide in Texas in November? I believe the answer is yes, we can. What I don't have the answer to is will we? But we're going to work to that end. There have been several moves in the past month that signal a really scary reality about the future of women's health care in the United States. And efforts are underway to try to restrict abortion access nationwide. They want to end abortion nationally. And this is not getting anywhere near the attention it deserves. And it is a miscarriage of the media, for lack of a better term, that this is not getting more attention. These efforts have flown way under the radar of major news headlines. And I want to talk about it with you today to make sure more people know what is going on because it is a dangerous disaster. Now think back to when Roe v. Wade was overturned. We were told something very specific. We are not trying to ban abortion nationwide. We want to send the issue back to the states. And if states decide they don't want abortion, fine. And if other states decide they do want legal abortion, that's also fine. That's what they said. That was the argument. That was the reassurance. Don't worry. But if you actually look at what's happening right now, that explanation simply doesn't hold up because the most common form of abortion in the United States is not a procedure. It is medication. It is mifepristone. Mifepristone, a pill, accounts for 63% of all abortions. It, it's also used in miscarriage care. And the drug has been approved since the year 2000. For more than two decades, it wasn't seriously in question whether it would remain legal. And then in the last couple of years, you start seeing legal challenges trying to undo the approval. And one of those cases made it all the way to the Supreme Court in FDA v. Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine. The court didn't uphold the challenge, but not because they rejected the argument. The court said the plaintiffs didn't have standing. That is very important because it means that the door remains open and it means the issue wasn't really settled. It just means they have to try again with a different approach. That's happening right now. Now you might be saying, oh, David, I haven't heard about this. That's the problem. You're seeing new cases right now targeting mifepristone again, including attempts to restrict telehealth prescriptions and attempts to restrict mailing of the drug, which of course is a completely reasonable way for people to obtain the drug. They want to make it more complicated. You have to go in, in person, no telehealth and you've got to go also into the pharmacy. It goes from having to leave the house zero times to having to leave the house twice. Now on paper that might sound like a pretty narrow change, but in reality this is a way to limit access across state lines without saying we are banning it. Now. At the same time, you have federal legislation from people like Republican Senator Josh Hawley which goes way further and would remove FDA approval entirely for the drug, which would effectively ban it nationwide. Senator Josh Hawley tweeted about this and in fact his wife works for the Alliance Defending Freedom. That's the group bringing the lawsuit. He posted quote, this is Aaron's case. Incredibly proud of her. Mifepristone sends 1 in 10 women who use it to the emergency room with life threatening conditions. Now it's time for Congress to ban it completely for use in abortion. Now, by the way, that claim isn't even true. The claim of one. You've got to look, really there's Three elements to it. One in ten women go to the ER with a life threatening condition because of mifepristone. Right. So there's really three important elements to comes from a non peer reviewed study from a right wing or organization which claimed that within 45 days of taking mifepristone, 10% of women had a serious adverse event. Now the problems are how they define serious adverse events is completely whacked out. Going to the ER doesn't mean it's life threatening. Going to the ER doesn't mean it'S because of mifepristone. And going to the ER within 45 days isn't necessarily related to the drug. But that's not really the issue here. Just like of course they're lying, but it's not really the issue. There is more than just a single effort here being made to try to effectively ban medication abortions. They've got multiple irons in the fire, they've got the court challenges, they've got the regulatory pressure and federal legislation all at the same time. And a lot of these efforts are connected to the same legal networks, including that one I mentioned, that Josh Hawley's wife works for the Alliance Defending Freedom which has been involved in a lot of abortion related cases. And so what we have to acknowledge here is that they are coordinating. This is not random, this is, it's strategic. They are saying let's do all of these things at once. And it is also not a theoretical thing. In states with strict abortion bans, there have already been cases where women were experiencing miscarriages and were told you can't receive any care until there is no fetal heartbeat. So women get sent home, waiting sometimes for days, facing medical risk to themselves, serious trauma to themselves. And in many cases these are wanted pregnancies that, that did not work out. These are people in some of these cases trying to have children being told they have to wait for things to get worse before doctors can do anything. So you put all of it together, the idea that this is just a states rights issue becomes much harder to believe because on three fronts they are fighting to effectively restrict or ban what are nearly 2/3 of the abortions referred to as medication abortions and the use of mifepristone in miscarriage. What we are seeing here, and I've got to hand it to them in the sense that it is evil genius, this is a multi decade effort. They are like the dog that bites down and simply will not let go. Decades. Let's get Roe v. Wade overturned. We've got to adjust who's on the Supreme Court and they spent decades doing it and now they are going to the next level, which is can we get rid of mifepristone? Can we get rid of it through convenience elements like you can't do telehealth and you can't mail the drug. Can we get rid of it by getting the FDA to reverse approval? And the effort to further restrict abortion, which I told you wouldn't end when they got Roe v. Wade overturned, has not. It bolstered them, it invigorated them to say, can we do even more. It is in its next phase right now and it's important that we all be aware of what's going on. If you love having quality fresh breads and pastries at home with no hassle, our sponsor Wild Grain makes it easy. Wild Grain is a baked from frozen subscription box for sourdough breads, artisanal pastries, fresh pastas. Everything arrives frozen and bakes in 25 minutes or less. No thawing required. Simple ingredients slow fermentation process. It really improves the flavor and texture. I always keep Wild grain, sourdough bread and croissants on hand. Convenient. Tastes like something you'd get from the bakery straight from freezer to oven. No planning required. The pasta is great too. I love having wild grain on the busy nights when I need something good but without spending a bunch of time on it. And Wild grain boxes are customizable. You can get the variety box, they've got gluten free vegan, they've got a protein box. Wild grain is offering $30 off your first box plus free croissants for life. When you go to wildgrain.com/pacman or use the promo code Pacman at checkout. The link is in the description. You use your email for everything. Banking, work, purchases, medical information that makes your email provider one of the most important places to think about privacy. Most big tech email services scan your messages, build profiles about you, use the data to show you ads. Our sponsor, Start Mail takes a different approach. Start Mail looks and works just like the big name email services you're used to. But Start Mail never scans your mail, never tracks anything about you, never sells your data. Start Mail also includes powerful privacy features you don't get from big tech email providers. For instance, you can create unlimited email aliases so you don't have to give out your real address to anybody, which will reduce spam and phishing risks. You can also send PGP encrypted emails even if the recipient isn't using encryption and if you switch to Start Mail it is really easy to migrate your existing emails and contacts in just a few clicks. Go to start mail.com/pacman to get 50% off your first year. The link is in the description. They're claiming that Donald Trump went to the dentist on Saturday in Florida and millions of people do not believe it. Do you believe it? Do you believe that Donald Trump had to go to the dentist in Florida on Saturday when the White House has a full blown dental facility on site? The White House says it was scheduled and it was routine with Trump's local dentist in Florida. AFP's Sebastian Smith reported at the time on Twitter that, quote, the President has left his Jupiter Golf Club in Florida for a dental appointment. White House says it's a scheduled appointment at his local dentist. The problem is it wasn't on his schedule. So by definition it was not scheduled by the standards applied to presidents. Dr. And CNN commentator Jonathan Reiner is extremely skeptical. He tweeted, quote, the White House has had a dental operatory since the Hoover administration. Routine dental exams can be done in the White House. Case in point, when we talk about scheduling, Trump's physicals at Walter Reed are put on the presidential schedule. This was not so what do they mean that it was scheduled and routine? It is true that the White House has a full dental facility. Joe Biden famously had a root canal there. So Trump had a routine dental visit in Florida on a Saturday. This is the second time this year that this has happened. This Trump also supposedly went to his Florida dentist in January and then he comes back to the White House and suddenly people are noticing something else, which is the ankles are just swollen like tree trunks. Not new, by the way. Trump reportedly dealing with chronic venous insufficiency, which can cause exactly that symptom. But to go back to the dentist situation, you've got an off the books dentist visit in Florida on a Saturday not on the schedule, when there is a full dental facility at the White House and then he shows up back from it with his ankle swollen like we've maybe never seen before. So the obvious speculation is Trump's not really going to the dentist is. And we're now entering full speculation mode. There's been so little transparency about Donald Trump's health that something routine starts to raise these flags. Is this where Trump is actually getting whatever IV treatment is responsible for the bruises on his hands that he's covering up with bandages and makeup? It's speculative. There's no question that it's speculative because there is no transparency here. Now, in the interests of being. I don't know why, but being charitable to people who are never charitable to us and who are completely dishonest and just in the interest of being charitable, is it possible that there is something dental that really is going on that Donald Trump doesn't want handled at the White House, or is it cosmetic dentistry? I believe it's a known thing that Donald Trump has veneers, and it seems like a lot of his kids do also. They seem to all have, like, the very large features, fake teeth. Is it possible that the White House dentist isn't equipped to do stuff related to veneers, or Trump's embarrassed about it, or they want to keep it out of medical records so they. They do this at Trump's Florida dentist? I don't know, but I'm saying that I guess that would be a more charitable interpretation of what's going on. Now, let me address another element with regard to the Trump's health stuff. There's a division in my audience as to the salience and relevance of what's going on with Donald Trump's health. And I'm going to try to characterize both sides, and then we'll maybe have a conversation about this. On the one hand, there are people who write to me weekly, if not more, telling me that I am not giving enough coverage and placing Trump's health and physical and cognitive decline in a central enough way to explain what we are seeing today. There are people who write to me and they say, david, all of your discussion about Iran, foreign policy and the ups and downs of the Strait of Vermouth and all of this different stuff, this is about Trump's cognitive decline. The whole war is because of Trump's cognitive decline. You've got to interview Bandy Lee and you've got to get John Gartner back on, and you need a geriatric specialist. And you're missing that everything that we are seeing is because of Donald Trump's deteriorating physical and mental health. That's one side of the audience. Maybe you're in that side, maybe you're not. Then there's the other side. And there are people who write to me and say, david, we know Trump's not in good health. He's almost 80 and obese and doesn't exercise and eats fast food. We know that, but there's too much focus on it, and we need to talk about the sociopolitical implications and the economic implications of Trump's policy actions and forget about his health. His health is crap. And at some point, he's no longer going to be with us. But it's not relevant to what the hell is going on with tariffs, is there? The, the, the people on the other side would say, no, no, it's completely relevant. Trump doesn't even have the cognitive capacity to understand tariffs. Trump doesn't realize that it is not China that pays the debt. So there's this push and pull, there's this tension right now, even within my own audience, as to the importance and placement of Donald Trump's health. Where are you on this issue? You can email me info@david pakman.com you can leave a comment here, there, everywhere, and of course, make sure you are subscribed to my YouTube channel where we are trying to get to 4 million subscribers. It costs now nothing, but it feels great. Donald Trump fell asleep standing up like a horse at an event a few hours ago with his face looking asymmetrically droopy while he slept standing up. This is seemingly pretty serious. Trump also bragged about cognitive tests. Trump's face in this video drooping, and he seems to fall asleep while Kelly Lefler is speaking at an event about small businesses.
