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can and, you know, make a grab for the money and the oil. And that's what we've done in Venezuela and that's what we're doing in Iran. I think this is significant. And it's significant because it's not the usual suspects. It's not, you know, when we think about narrative and stories that really sort of you can sink your teeth into and really say something is happening here. If it were another left winger or a Democrat or someone who already opposes Trump, of course they don't like what Trump is doing in Iran. These are people who supported him or, and maybe still to a degree do. And they're kind of drawing a line here. And what you're starting to see are the early stages of something that has happened before. Historically, when leaders go too Far at first, the base stays unified. It's been a decade. And while there have been people who abandon ship, the base has mostly been unified. The rhetoric then escalates. The actions, the proposed actions in this case, which Trump chickened out about, they cross a line that even the loyal supporters can no longer justify. And then the cracks start to form and usually sort of like cracks in an iceberg, when they start, they only get bigger. They might slow down for a little while, but they only get bigger. They don't reverse. If you're a supporter and suddenly you are being asked to defend something that you know is wrong, it violates the basic rules of war. It doesn't even really make strategic sense. At the end of the day, you're put in a pretty, pretty difficult position. You can certainly go along with it anyway. And some are doing that, or you start to kind of take a step back. And when you see others taking that step back, even quietly, you see the coalition weakening. And this is how these leaders end up isolated. It's a gradual process. I know that there are lots of people in my audience who have been anxiously and passionately waiting, and I understand it. I understand the desire for the thing that just ends Trump. I've been very honest. I think almost certainly Trump stays in power until the scheduled end of his term, unless he dies or negotiates a resignation with a pardon. That's like a less likely but second possibility. I don't think we're going to see impeachment. I don't think we're going to see 25th amendment. I mentioned this earlier. I explained kind of the mathematics of why. But making Trump an ostracized lamest of lame ducks for the last two years of his presidency is still a worthwhile idea. And I hope that we're going to vote to make that happen in November. And so we also have to be realistic that it's not going to be an all at once thing. It's going to be gradual. And so one supporter at a time who says, I've been with him, but not on this thing. I've been with him, but not on that thing. I love what he's doing on men and women's sports, but gas is up 61% and that's just too much. And so if that continues to happen, Trump will end up in a very different position than the one he would like to be in now. I spoke with Gavin Newscom. He's a nasty. Okay. I spoke with the governor of California, Gavin Newsom, a couple of weeks ago, and I asked him, do you even believe Trump is going to be in a position to choose his replacement at the end of his term? And Gavin Newsom said, paraphrasing, that's interesting, but maybe not. Trump is weakened. We have to set realistic goals. Getting Republicans to join the impeachment of Donald Trump, I don't believe it's a realistic goal. Great to push them, great to say to them, by the way, he's done 12 impeachable things. Why won't you support it? Fine. But I don't think that's going to be it if we set realistic goals. The realistic goals are getting Trump to be so deeply disliked, even by Republicans, that he is in no position to choose another Maga as his replacement for 2028. And putting him in such a useless corner, a corner with nothing, with no tools, just he can stand there and look at the wall. Maybe there will be ketchup on the wall and he can smear, smear it around. But not actually giving him any power to do anything for the last two years of his presidency, I think that that is worthwhile. There are limits. Even for his strongest supporters, the limits are being crossed. He's got fewer defenders than he has ever had, fewer excuses, as most of the problems that he is now dealing with economically are of his own creation. And this is how you end up with nothing at the end of your term that you can use as a bargaining chip. Now, one other thing, there's another aspect to this that I do believe is important. I mentioned this resignation for a pardon scenario. Trump negotiates a resignation and J.D. vance becomes president. Vance immediately pardons Trump. Vance will be less likely to go along with that, although Vance would probably go along with almost anything to be president for a couple of years. Vance is less likely to go along with that if there is pressure on him not to grant Trump a pardon because Trump has become so unpopular and his behavior and decisions have been so beyond the pale. And we can play a role in that. We can play a role in that by continuing to talk about what Trump is doing, what he's been up to, and by embarrassing Republicans so brutally in November that there is just not even the crumbs left for manufacturing consent around Donald Trump's behavior. That's a reasonable goal. Megyn Kelly oh boy. Let's talk about something that is going to give you some insight into where parts of the right wing media ecosystem are right now. Megyn Kelly went on record and essentially said Trump could do almost anything, even dropping a nuclear weapon or even a Nuclear weapon, if you're more prone to that pronunciation. And she would still vote for Republicans over Democrats. Here is Megyn Kelly. What independence. What strength. What a unique thinker. Oh, boy, take a listen to this. Honestly, Trump could drop a nuke, and I still vote Republican over those people because they want to avenue voter in some ways, I really am. But honestly, they, what they want to do is nuke our own country. You know, it's like the open border, what they're doing to children, all that stuff is still that they would do it all if put back in power. And I, I think most Republicans know that. All right, so obviously that is not independence. It is not critical thinking. It is political submission. Now, Megyn Kelly also criticized Trump. We're going to look at that tomorrow. But this declaration is its doormat loyalty, what I call laying down like a doormat and letting Trump walk all over you. And the easiest way to see it for me is to flip the scenario. I'm on the left. That's no secret. I am a commentator, an analyst. I am not a journalist. I am not a reporter who pretends. And pretend is an important thing to mention, who pretends to have no opinion, or at least who hides my opinion. But I can imagine situations where I would vote for a Republican over a Democrat. There aren't a ton in modern American politics, but they do exist. I'll give you one example. I mean, if I think about, think about Adam Kinzinger, former Republican Congressman Adam Kinzinger, if I had to choose for President Adam Kinzinger, or let me be careful here, or Marianne Williamson. I'm voting for Adam Kinzinger. Why? At a basic level, I want competence, I want coherence. I want a functional person that could even conceivably do the job. And if a candidate doesn't have that, yes, positions on each issue matter. But I also go beyond that in evaluating candidates. And I would like to think that that is the sort of independent thinking that we could expect from supposedly independent media figures. And so I would weigh options and consider tradeoffs and not lock myself into. There is nothing that could be done to get me to vote. So once you go into this, no matter what stuff, you're not thinking anymore, you've turned politics and political positions into identity. And that's what we are seeing right here. It's not about policy, it's not about outcomes. It's loyalty, unconditional loyalty. And if that's the standard, how do you even really disqualify a candidate? You don't. You Can't. And so, you know, in the, the Kinzinger thing I'm acknowledging is a little bit of a cop out, because Adam Kinzinger said to me when he was on the show, if he got back into politics, he would actually be a Democrat at this point. Like, his views are basically anathema to the Republican Party. That's, that's sort of a different story. But these are the sorts of decisions that actually require a little more thought, a little more introspection. Trump could nuke a country, and I would still vote for Republicans over Democrats. What are you really bringing to the table at that point in time? And I would argue, in fact, that that's dangerous because if you have a system where voters impose no limits on their leaders, the leaders have no incentive to respect any limits themselves. If Trump knows I have a base where I could, as he likes to say, shoot someone on Fifth Avenue, or he could nuke someone or whatever, and they're still going to support me, what is the incentive for Trump to try to build consensus or work and behave in a way that supports with the law, the Constitution, the expectations and desires of the people that voted for him? It's very ugly when you look historically over the last hundred and fifty years around the world when the leaders stop being in any way accountable to the voters for their decisions, where they have their vote no matter what. You know, some will see this and go, well, Trump can now have total conviction and he's operating from a place of strength because people won't get in his. No, no, no, no. The fact that people won't hold him accountable and that there will be no consequences is an abandonment of judgment. And it puts Trump in a position where he doesn't even have to sort of pretend to follow what the law is or what norms are. And so Megyn Kelly, you know, this entire I'm independent thing, it's actually a sort of broken reality with regard to how the system is supposed to work. And she claims that now that she's off Fox News, she can critique Fox News. And occasionally she has, she has even said, you know, over on Fox News, it's a lot of propaganda about this issue or that issue. I think she said something like that about the Epstein files. Cool criticism, Megan, but you're saying that even nukes wouldn't get you to change your mind and say, hey, maybe a Democrat is better now. It's not theoretically relevant to who is in power right now. There were many voters who said, I don't love Trump's protectionist Tariff ideas. I don't think Trump's plan when it comes to health care makes sense. But Kamala Harris, oh no, she'll start four wars. Wait, so you've fallen for Trump's I'm the peace president thing? Well, it might be an exaggeration, but Kamala will start four wars. That's where we are right now. So I hope that people don't think this way. I know that it's not the rarest thing to just go, I vote down party lines, but I hope that most people actually consider. Even if you know your preference is towards Democrats. That's my position. Right. I mostly vote for Democrats even though I'm not registered as a Democrat. It has to be about choosing the best option. And if it's defending your side at any cost, we're in trouble. It's a problem. It's going in a very dark direction. The David Pakman show is an audience supported program and the best, most direct way to support the show is by becoming a member@join pacman.com you'll get the daily bonus show, the daily commercial free show and plenty of other great membership programs. Perks. Get the full experience by signing up@join pacman.com hey, did you get your $7,000 yet from Donald Trump? Did you get your $5,000 doge dividend and your $2,000 tariff dividend? Do you remember this? They want you to forget about it. They've promised you $7,000 since Donald Trump came to power. The second time. We were told you'd be getting five grand because of all of the, the efficiencies that Doge has found. And you're going to get two grand because of all of the money we've made from tariffs. No, we do have a war in Iran that's costing an insane amount of money, but your seven grand is missing. Now, I did a segment last week about how the consequences to lying or being wrong politically in this modern era are essentially zero because double standards are almost expected and nobody's held accountable. But remember that it was everywhere on social media. It was in speeches, it was in interviews. It was. Checks will be going out soon. We may be approving them soon. It could be imminent. They'll have Trump's signature on them and depending on who you asked, Elon Musk or whoever, they would go, yes, that's absolutely something we're considering. Oh, that's right. I know that that is something that was mentioned and I told you within minutes of these claims being made, you are not going to get A single, solitary dollar. Now, they have a way of claiming that you already got it. Now you're probably looking at your bank balance and your wallet and going, what did I get? Gas is up 61%. What are you talking about? Let me get back to that. Let me get back to that. Because it's the same thing they did with the wall that Mexico was going to pay for. There were a lot of people that bought into it. There were a lot of people that said, listen, it sounds simple, it sounds direct. Money is going to show up. It's going to be great. There won't be any bureaucratic delays. It's going to be perfect. There was never a plan behind any of it. There was no signed order. There was no policy. They didn't have a funding mechanism. It turns out that firing a bunch of federal government employees doesn't create a disbursable fund from which you can cut people $5,000 checks. Who could have believed that? And of course, there was never any timeline, soon, very quickly, etc. Now, we did the math on it at the time. The, the very basic math. It's basically addition or a more complicated form of addition that we call multiplication. The revenue being discussed was nowhere near enough to fund five or $7,000 checks for millions and millions of Americans. Now, it wasn't going to be for all 350 million Americans. People above a certain income would be excluded. I don't think it included kids, but we're talking about tens of millions of checks for 5,000 and or $2,000, $7,000 total. But it didn't matter. We would try to slow it down and go, listen, the math is crazy. It doesn't make any sense. And they just said, we're going to do it. But the point was never delivering on it. The point was, let's keep people engaged and hopeful so that they go, well, I might not agree with the things Trump is doing, but I'm going to get my five or $7,000 to five or $7,000. And it was this plausible pot of gold or coal at the end of the rainbow that people thought I might get at some point. Now, look at where things stand today as we approach mid April of 2026. No $2,000 tariff check, no $5,000 DOGE dividend. DOGE is shut down. Elon is gone. The tariffs have been a complete financial disaster, and we're spending increasingly more money carrying out this war in Iran, which the winner of the FIFA Peace Prize did. That's kind of surprising. Not what you would Imagine the conversation is done. The conversation has shifted away completely. And I hope, and I suggest that at every opportunity, when journalists interview J.D. vance or Donald Trump, when journalists interview members of the Republican Party in the House or Senate, ask them every single time and present them with quotes from things Trump said about these checks and say, what happened to it? Where does it stand today? Do you have a date? Will it ever happen, sir or ma'? Am? But the conversation, I don't know that I would say to their benefit because it's, it's its own fiasco. The conversation is about international conflict and military escalations, the Strait of Hormuz, whether this war with Iran is winding down, or whether this potential two week pause is really just a pause and we're going back to it and suddenly we realize, wait a second, we're funding new military action. There's no confusion. There never is. There's no delay, there's no congressional approval, there's no hesitation. We've got the money, but $2,000 from how rich the tariffs made we made us. We still can't get 2000 bucks out to people. So this is an important contrast. Priorities are very different depending on whether the outcome helps everyday people or whether it serves Donald Trump's political or strategic goals. Even though the war is unpopular, Trump came to believe it served his strategic goals when it was about putting money in people's hands. We're working on it. It's uncertain. It'll be about five grand. It'll be about two grand. It's complicated, it's postponed, we're worried about it. Trump decided to go to war. We're spending the money two minutes later. It's an immediate and decisive system. Now, the truth is, if there was the same level of commitment to decisively and immediately helping the average person, there's a myriad, there are myriad ways in which Trump could make it happen overnight, but the only things that happen immediately are things like bombing Iran. Now, the uncomfortable reality, as always, is a lot of people believe this and fell for it. They fell for the original promise. They weren't naive, but it was repeated and they wanted to believe it. They wanted to believe it because a lot of people could use seven grand right now. So this is the cycle. You make a bold claim, there's no follow through. You pivot to the next issue before the previous one is examined. And when people realize nothing is coming, attention has moved on to something else. Well, we're at war now. The strategy can just be used again. So there was never a $7,000 stream of money coming to you. There was never two grand. There was never five grand. And I want to say to the Trump people, acknowledge that it was never going to happen. Don't write to me with these. You know, David Trump did have every intention of doing that. But then, come on, guys, that's crap. Just acknowledge it was never going to happen. And it was meant to string you along to the next deception. And the people that believed it are not rewarded with checks and they are not rewarded with relief, but their loyalty is still expected. Even though the two grand didn't happen, the five grand didn't happen, he's still expecting you to vote for him in November. Now, let me now say one other thing. When I addict actually, I remember speaking to a Trump supporter about this when Trump promised a wall with Mexico that Mexico would pay for, and it didn't happen. Trump built 200 miles in his first term and the United States paid for it. Trump supporter called in and said to me, well, it kind of did happen because through tariffs and through usmca, Mexico has paid for it. Guys, if you believe that, I got a bridge to sell you that. That, that is just absurd. And similarly, they're doing the same thing right now. You hear from Scott Bessant or whoever else on tv, Kevin, what's, I'm blanking on his name, Kevin Hassett. You hear them on TV and they go, listen, Donald Trump, as a result of his policies, has put $2,700 back in the pockets of Americans. Now, it's conceivable that there is some accounting mechanism through which you could make that case, but what Trump has taken out of people's pockets through higher prices on everything, energy, gas, oil, far exceeds that. And so if you believe that Trump kind of has given you a tariff dividend, you've given the country a tariff dividend by paying more for everything, even though Trump promised the prices would go down. This is not where I wanted to be today. This is not where I expected to be today. But Donald Trump Jr. And Caroline Levitt are coming after me. They're coming after independent media. They want this show to be done and over with. Now, let me tell you what went on. For three days, Donald Trump was missing from public view. No events, no appearances. And it led to speculation online that he might be in the hospital. Now, I said something very simple. I said, if Trump were in the hospital, they would probably try to cover it up. We would have to figure it out some other way. But there is no real evidence right now that Trump is in the hospital. That's the entire offense that I did. And it turned into Donald Trump Jr. Going after me with Caroline Levitt boosting it. Here is my tweet on screen in a compilation of tweets that Donald Trump Jr. Posted with the tagline sick people. And I said, quote, it's true there are rumors that Trump was secretly rushed to Walter Reed Hospital earlier. It's true. If this happened, the Trump White House would almost certainly cover it up until they could no longer. However, there appears to be no basis for the rumors that Trump is currently in the hospital. That is all that I said. And Donald Trump Jr. Tweeted about it as me being a sick person. And Caroline Levitt signal boosted other tweets highlighting my exact same post. Now think about that for a second. I didn't push a conspiracy. I didn't exaggerate. I did the opposite. I said, let's slow down, let's deal. In fact, these are liars. And remember that when Trump went to the hospital for Covid during his first term, there was a cover up. We were told he's going because he's the president, but he was going because his doctor said, you're getting so sick so quickly, you may need to be brought to the hospital in a stretcher if you wait. So let's go now. For propaganda purposes. They later lied about whether Donald Trump received oxygen therapy when he was in the hospital. They're lying about for two months. They talked to us about an MRI that never happened. It was a CAT scan and they didn't tell us why. And so I acknowledge that. But I said, right now there's no reason to think he's in the hospital. This is a bigger story than about Trump's health. This is a story about independent media. At its core. Shows like mine exist outside of their control. We don't take marching orders. We're not repeating their talking points. We're looking at what's happening and explaining it in plain language. We are really inconvenient to them. So what do they do? They try to frame independent voices as dishonest. They try to turn their their followers against us. Last time Don tweeted about me, me, my dad got emails saying, you should have aborted your son. Now, once the idea takes hold that independent media is a problem and we need to go after them, the next step becomes easier, which is they go after us. Now, let's be very honest about where this goes. If this trajectory continues, they are going to try to take one of us down. It could be through Platform pressure. Maybe it's through coordinated reporting campaigns. Monetization for our YouTube channel was turned off yesterday. Believed to be a glitch, only affected a relatively small number of channels. We were one of them. Monetization was off yesterday. Now maybe it's through advertiser pressure. They go to my advertisers and they say, do not advertise with this guy. Maybe it's flooding the zone with attacks until something sticks. Maybe it's stochastic terrorism. Someone should do something about this guy. But the direction is independent media will get chipped away at one target at a time if this is the way they do it now. That's why this moment, I believe, really matters. If you're watching this, the most important thing you can do is just make sure you're connected with the shows you care about. I'm not asking anyone for money. Follow us on every platform. It's free to subscribe on YouTube. We're trying to get to 4 million subscribers. The bigger we are, the bigger problem they'll have taking us down. We have an audio podcast. Follow it, subscribe to it on Apple podcasts or Spotify, whichever. Even if you watch on YouTube, just do that. It tells the platform, hey, give visibility to this show. Substack. It's free. Wherever you get content, just make sure that you're there with us. Now. The reality is if one channel gets hit, the others matter, even most. That's how this works now. Now I'm going to keep doing exactly what I've been doing. Looking at the facts, calling out the nonsense, explaining what's happening here, there. But the environment we're in is an increasingly weak and unpopular Trump and they are lashing out. And what makes this more concerning is that the line between criticism and targeting is blurred right now. When someone like Donald Trump Jr posts about me sick people, that is not a policy criticism. It is a powerful political figure pointing an audience and saying, this is the target. Right now we know that goes beyond disagreement with these people. Harassment? Sure. Bad faith reporting? Sure. Attempts to get content taken down. Yes. And so we know the type of reaction they are trying to trigger. And the broader danger is that if independent voices start pulling back because the cost goes up, that is a self censoring left wing media environment. And what you do is you seed C E D E seed power and control to the very worst people. The people who say you shouldn't have a voice, that is. I write about this in my book the Echo Machine and I write about it in my forthcoming book Pay attention. This is how media ecosystems get reshaped. Not through one dramatic shutdown, but through steady pressure that makes honest fact based commentary harder and harder to sustain. So my ask is not a big one. Make sure you're following us on our platforms. Make sure you've hit the subscribe button on YouTube. Make sure you're on my substack. If you can afford a membership, by all means. I'm flattered and I welcome it@join pacman.com but that's not what we're asking for right now. Free. Just say, hey, I support this. That's really important. On the bonus show today, a bunch of stories from my visit now to Buenos Aires, Argentina. I don't know if the mic picked that up. The sweet sirens that I grew up with in the city, all of that and more on today's bonus show. Quick break. This surprised me. The most useful advice I get now doesn't come from experts. It comes from regular people on TikTok. What works, what doesn't. No filters. Download TikTok and see for yourself.
