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Commentator on Charlie Kirk's Death (0:28)
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David Pakman (0:56)
The administration is now preparing to wind down a war that they claimed they were winning while at the same time threatening massive escalation within 48 hours. Which is it? Iran is denying claims from Trump that there has been any progress. The markets are see sawing in real time and if we go back to the supposed central objective of this war, it still hasn't been achieved. Now at the same time, gas prices are up 44% in just two months. And of course much of this is because of Donald Trump's choice to start this optional war. And as that's happening, they are claiming in the administration that Donald Trump has 100% support in a CNN poll that of course doesn't exist. We're going to hear from Scott Bessant and Brooke Rollins, other officials making completely ridiculous claims about how prices are down and everything is great. And then MAGA celebrating the death of Robert Mueller, although they told us when Charlie Kirk was killed, you never celebrate anyone's death. But now they are doing exactly that. It's chaos, contradiction, fabrication. We're going to break it all down. Donald Trump is shockingly preparing to admit defeat, but he is also claiming victory. He says we won, but it's shaping up to be a huge loss. Markets are up. The dow is up 900 points. As I'm talking to you, we're going to explain why it is a complete and total mess. This is one of those stories where if you are only sort of loosely paying attention, you might be under the impression that Donald Trump has won this war, or you might be under the impression that that the war is over and Trump has lost this war. And I don't blame you for the confusion because we have a lot of deliberate disinformation that is flowing from this administration. So let's start, on the one hand, Donald Trump has been talking about winding down the war with Iran very soon. And then on the other hand, we have Trump issuing threats about further strikes. And then on the other hand, we have Donald Trump claiming that big progress has been made on talks with Iran. Except Iran says there have been no talks. So let's start at the beginning. Trump a couple days ago posted the following. I'm going to read it directly so that you hear it as written. Quote, if Iran doesn't fully open without threat, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 hours from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various power plants, starting with the biggest one first. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. Trump, which is it? Are we ending the war right now or are we about to escalate into something significantly bigger within days? And Trump is kind of stuck. And the entire war seemingly now comes down to a single issue, which is the Strait of Hormuz. And whether it is open now, it's important here to pause and remind ourselves that the point of this war has shifted over time. First it was to re obliterate the nuclear capabilities which were previously obliterated in June, which I guess weren't or maybe they were. We don't know where they rebuilt. It's not really clear. Then it was about regime change. We've got to get the Iranian regime out. Except after the killing of the Ayatollah, the ayatollah son was made supreme leader. And it just doesn't seem that the regime change is to going going to happen. Then it was, well, we want to take out their ballistic missiles capabilities, which, all right, I mean that is an objective, but the ballistic missiles capabilities aren't a threat to the United States and certainly don't support circumventing congressional authorization for this war and going in. So there's a problem with that claim. Now as a secondary order effect, the Strait of Hormuz has been shut down. And so that has become the priority. Okay, so that's where we are right now. If the strait isn't open, global oil supply is at risk and markets are unstable. And ok, that's where we are. So when Trump says we're very close to meeting objectives while also threatening this massive escalation, he is kind of unintentionally revealing the truth, which is that they haven't solved the core problem. And, and not only haven't they solved it, they don't really seem to have a clear path to solving it. Now think about the timeline, because Trump wanted this done quickly and wrapped up, clean, decisive, wrap a bow on it and get gas prices back down. He wants to declare victory with no complications. We are now weeks into this. Troops are still deploying, strikes are ongoing, and behind the scenes, we are really far from any kind of clean resolution. So what Trump is doing instead is two things at the same time. Prepare the public for an exit while threatening escalation to force some kind of last minute outcome. It's not really a coherent strategy. It's what you do when you're boxed in. You need to create options and you do them by threatening or suggesting opposite actions. The reality is if Trump did escalate and hit power plants, number one, this is going to be even worse for energy prices, which is part of what's making Trump panic in the first place. He wants to get those prices down, but he's threatening to do things that will only push them up even further. Doesn't make a lot of sense. And you'd better believe that this will become a much bigger regional conflict if indeed Donald Trump were to do something like that. Now, if Trump doesn't escalate and leaves and the Strait of Hormuz is left unresolved, the whole recent purpose of the war, which is what we've got to get that open, isn't achieved. And then it becomes very dubious to argue that the United States won this war. Now, what I believe Trump is ultimately laying the groundwork to do, and we'll see it in the next segment, is setting up to get out without winning, but claiming victory. The US Goes in, escalates the situation, contributes to this global economic disruption on energy, and then leaves claiming victory. But. But it's a mess there and he's going to leave other people to handle it. This is not the way the United States at least believes it operates globally. This is what a panicked and desperate exit ramp looks like when you realize you can't win. Now look at what the American allies are doing. Trump wanted Naito Countries and others to step in and send ships and help reopen the Strait and share the burden. They mostly refused, and I understand why. It's not their war. It's not shared defense of a Naito ally. Why on earth would they get involved with Trump's harebrained idea? So now Trump says, well, those are cowards. And what he really means is, I wanted a coalition and I'm not getting a coalition, which makes the likelihood of Solving this thing far significantly reduced politically. There is a pattern here, there's a trend. This is a very unpopular war, but the hardcore Trump base is sort of still supporting it. And Trump is only focusing there. So when he says we're winning and we're strong and all of that, he's ignoring the fact that the core objectives which have changed are unlikely to be achieved. And now all of the focus is on Strait of Hormuz. So we are left with an intractable situation. Trump threatening massive escalation within 48 hours, preparing to wind down and escalate the war. We're not winning. That's what seems very clear now. Here's where it gets completely nuts. You strip away the rhetoric. You only look at the facts. The conclusion that a successful exit is possible seems really hard to believe, because if the Strait isn't secured, the crisis, forget about the crisis being resolved. The strait is a problem that Trump created. Forget about not even meeting the underlying or original objectives. This is a new problem Trump created and haven't, hasn't solved. But this morning, Trump comes out and goes, oh, we just made big progress. But did they? That's where we have to go next. A desperate Donald Trump took to Truth Social this morning to say, we're doing it, we're getting what we want. I'm not going to have to start bombing Iran more and bombing their energy facilities. Now, let me first remind you, at the start of the weekend, Trump posted quote, if Iran doesn't fully open without threat the Strait of Hormuz Within 48 hours from this exact point in time, the USA will hit and obliterate their various power plants, starting with the biggest one first. Well, we were getting to that point this morning. Stock market futures were down. It was looking like we would have another massive stock market crash today. But then this morning at 7:23am Eastern, a perfect time to post if you want to juice the stock market. Trump takes the truth social again and posts quote, I am please. That's a typo. I am please to report that the United States of America and the country of Iran have had over the last two days very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle east based on the tenor and tone of these in depth, detailed and constructive conversations, which will continue. It's the wrong witch, by the way he put it, like the wicked witch of the east, which will continue throughout the week. I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for A five day period subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions. Wow. Well, that is a very interesting typo Laden post. Sounds pretty good. This does exactly what Trump intended it to do. It spikes stock market futures with Dow futures immediately jumping more than 900 points. Right. When Trump announces this, oil futures immediately decline, declining 10% in an instant. The only little problem is that Iran completely denies this. Iran says it never happened. Iran says it's not true. There have been no talks at all. Here is Maria Bartiromo this morning reporting on the Iranian state.
