David Pakman (33:17)
Trump doesn't like this. How do we know? Well, he threatened them already. Donald Trump posted the truth social quote. Any Republican in the House or the Senate that votes against tariffs will seriously suffer the consequences come election time, and that includes primaries. Our trade deficit has been reduced by 78%. The Dow Jones has just hit 50,000. The S&P, 7,000. All numbers that were considered impossible just one year ago. In addition, tariffs have given us great national security because the mere mention of the word has countries agreeing to our strongest wishes. None of that is true. Tariffs have given us economic and national security, and no Republican should be responsible for destroying this privilege. Something is happening here. When these Republicans decide we need to break from Trump to save ourselves, you know that there is a shift happening here. Now. The tariffs are a huge deal to Trump because they're not just a policy to Trump. They're really identity. He talks about tariffs like they are magic. He said it's his favorite word or his fifth favorite word or whatever. They are like economic cheat codes. If you say the word tariff loudly enough, manufacturing comes back and deficits disappear and America wins everything. Except it's not happening because tariffs are taxes on imports. And it means Americans pay more for materials. American companies pay more. The past costs go on to the consumer. Canada isn't just any country. It's one of the largest trading partners we have. Tariffs on Canada hurt everybody. They hurt. They ripple into American manufacturing, they ripple into agriculture, they ripple into retail pricing. And what is fascinating is that Trump immediately threatened Republicans who go against him. And they still, six of them use me. Six of them still decided to go against Trump. Historically, strongman style party control works by threatening people and then they get in line. But this time, six of them anyway are not getting in line. Part of what's happening is there are Republicans. Massie isn't one of these guys. I think Massie just straight up doesn't give a damn. He doesn't like Trump. He's not helping him. But a lot of these Republicans are realizing we are up for reelection soon. And a lot of us are going to get crushed if we go with this. Now. Later in the show, we are going to look at confidence about the forthcoming November elections. From maga, Mike Johnson. I got to tell you, I think it's bullshit. I think Mike Johnson knows that they are about to get absolutely crushed. He's playing the game. He's playing the game mostly for an audience of one, but at least there were six Republicans here who were not willing to play that game. Trump works best when everybody believes that he's unstoppable. And when everyone believes opposing him is political suicide, they'll go with it. Oh, my God. If I oppose Trump, I will lose. But now it's shifting to, if I go with Trump, I risk losing. And that is a very dangerous place for Donald Trump to be. I want to do a sort of policy sanity check. To see where we are in this country as we approach the midterms. And as I prepared for this segment and researched where are Americans on this policy, on that policy? Let's take a break from the cultural stuff. Let's really just look at the promises and the policy and the results. I was almost stunned to find that Trump is failing at just about everything that he promised he would fix. We looked at the economy, we looked at immigration, trade, public trust, even his own approval numbers. And, and if you step back and you look at the full picture, not a single headline, not just one week, not one Pam Bondi meltdown or whatever, you see a governing project that is failing to govern. For years, Trump and his allies were selling a really simple promise, which was that he's so strong, he's going to fix everything. No one knows better than him. The borders will be strong and the tariffs will be strong and executive power will be big and strongman politics will get us great results. But governing when the rally speeches are over is systems. And systems sometimes push back or systems don't end up being as pliable as maybe you want them to be. Now, we'll start with public opinion. Trump's approval rating is in the high 30s. That is historically low for a president at this stage of a term. And it is not like a generic dislike. Americans are against a lot of the policies Trump is pushing. You look at immigration, the issue that built his political identity. Is Obama really a natural born citizen or whatever? It's the issue that was going to bring him back to the political heyday in his second term. It's going to go so well. People aren't happy. You look at multiple polls and you see dissatisfaction with the immigration protocol of Trump. People don't like how it's being carried out. People don't like what ICE is up to. People don't like ice. You look at the economy, you know, populism always promises, I will protect you economically when it comes to trade, etc. That's like the pitch that they make. The global markets, we're going to protect you. Foreign labor, we're going to protect you. Bad trade deals, we're going to protect you. But the long term budget outlook and economic indicators tied to Trump era policy isn't so good. It's looking like trillions will be added to the deficit over the next decade, which Trump said he's against. Tax extensions costing enormous amounts, the immigration enforcement expansions that have their own costs of hundreds of billions, and debt is projected to climb to levels that the country has really only seen, in extreme moments now, debt. In a sense, it's a number in a spreadsheet, but it does limit our ability to respond to future crises and it raises the cost of borrowing. It makes the next recession or pandemic more difficult to manage. So this is not theoretical stuff. These are structural weaknesses that are resulting from Trump. We then get to trade the tariffs, we were told, would be economic nationalism that pays for itself through growth. It's not happening and Americans know it. And a majority of Americans disapprove of the tariff escalation. Even when people who like the rhetoric see how it's working, they go, this isn't working that well for me. Now, if it sounds like this is only about Trump being unpopular, that's way too simple. The real story is the core pillars of Trump's agenda. Immigration enforcement, tariff driven economics, crisis governance as an issue, as a permanent status, deficit fueled tax cuts. They're all running into resistance at the same time. The public doesn't like it, the economy doesn't like it, and, and institutions don't like it. And historically, when three things like that collide, institutions go, this isn't so good. The economy reacts in a way that signals it's not so good, and the people just go, this isn't so good. You see a couple of paths forward. Democracies and Democrats who care about the will of the people. And by that I mean small D. Those who believe in democracy will say, maybe I need to reconsider. But authoritarians double down, find scapegoats, blame enemies, and manufacture more emergencies to justify even more power. That's Trump. And so I believe that this is a dangerous moment. If the policies were working, things would be more stable. Approval wouldn't be in the 30s, and you would see public buy in. What you're seeing are early signs of something much bigger, which is the public is losing confidence that the system under Trump will deliver results. Republicans, as we already talked about, are worried they're going to get crushed if they support this crap. And once that process starts, history tells us it's very difficult to reverse. Now, the real stakes here are not whether Trump is popular this month. The question is, is this a governing model that is failing? I believe the answer is yes. And what happens next if the people running it decide the only way out, the only way to save ourselves, is to completely and finally break the system that we believe is not serving us? Notice that missing from this is, oh, is what we're doing serving the public. They don't give a crap about that. The only question is, is it serving our political ambitions? Is it serving Trump's obsession with legacy? Is it serving Trump's desire to be the kingmaker, to decide who the Republican heir apparent is going to be? If the answer is, it's not serving that, there are people around Trump and Trump himself who are very willing to break all of it to try to reclaim control and that should terrify every single one of us. We're going to have extensive coverage of this on our substack, which you can find@substack.david pakman.com the David Pakman show is an audience supported program and the best, most direct way to support support the show is by becoming a member. @join pacman.com you'll get the daily bonus show, the daily commercial free show and plenty of other great membership perks. Get the full experience by signing up@join pacman.com we are going to have a real clinic here in what the faces look like when they know that they're in trouble. There is now a panic in the Republican Party and in the right wing, right wing media ecosystem to clean up Trump's mess. They are realizing we've got to please Trump, but we've also got to try to clean up the mess after mess after mess that this Epstein Files fiasco is causing for us. And we're going to look at a few clips here where you were really going to see how the messaging starts to change when things start to go wrong. This is not politics in the sense of relating to policy. This has nothing to do with policy. This is damage control. Speaker Mike Johnson is now out there saying that the Bondi hearing was a circus, not because Pam Bondi crashed out, spiked her cortisol and insulted everybody while refusing to answer questions. No, that's not why it was a circus. It was a circus because the Democrats asking questions aren't serious and it was all theatrics. The questioning was merely theatrics. So try to ground yourself to reality as MAGA Mike Johnson and Sean Hannity try relentlessly to pull you into a fantasy world.