The Digital Executive | Ep1150
Episode Title: Rethinking Ads with Dr. Duane Varan
Date: November 21, 2025
Host: Coruzant Technologies
Guest: Dr. Duane Varan, CEO of MediaPet and MediaScience
Overview
In this episode, Dr. Duane Varan, a globally recognized advertising researcher and CEO of MediaPet and MediaScience, discusses the revolution in advertising research brought by neurometric measurement and AI. The conversation covers his accidental but pivotal transition from academia to commercial research, surprising neurometric findings, the ethical landscape of measuring and creating ads with big data and AI, and the future evolution of ad effectiveness measurement. The discussion is rich with real-world examples, warnings about unvalidated AI metrics, and optimism for AI-enabled creative testing.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
Dr. Varan’s Shift From Academia to Commercial Research
[01:46]
- Dr. Varan recounts his unplanned transition from academic research to commercial application, triggered by a call from Disney.
- Disney wanted to replicate his academic lab and recruited him, offering an unprecedented arrangement:
“If it was an independent business and I owned it. But you funded it... If I owned the IP, if I continued being an academic and living in Australia... The list went on and on.”
— Dr. Duane Varan [02:33] - The five years of exclusivity with Disney ended up launching MediaScience and its subsequent global impact.
- Notable quote:
“It happened within some guardrails and it was a gradual process, but it did happen all of a sudden some 18 years ago.”
— Dr. Duane Varan [03:41]
- Disney wanted to replicate his academic lab and recruited him, offering an unprecedented arrangement:
Neurometric Insights: Discovering the Unexpected in Ad Impact
[04:39]
- Psychological measures—skin conductance, heart rate, facial expressions—often reveal that “not a lot is happening” during most ads, confounding creators’ expectations.
-
2016 U.S. Presidential Debate Case:
- Democratic supporters showed “incredibly negative" biometric responses every time Hillary Clinton spoke—levels typically seen for opponents.
- For Trump, repeated exposure lessened the emotional impact, while for undecideds,
“...they were actually responding much stronger and much more favorably to Trump throughout the debate."
— Dr. Duane Varan [07:03] - Neurometric data highlighted an emotional-rational conflict that surveys missed, predicting a close election despite landslide expectations.
- Memorable insight:
"...who people believe they are and what they believe is right and what their emotional response was, which was very strong.”
— Dr. Duane Varan [08:44]
-
Chinese Ad Testing:
- Chinese audiences exhibited dramatically different emotional responses and narrative needs, underscoring the risk of simply importing Western ads:
“...they couldn’t just roll out their Western ads in China. They really needed... significant research...”
— Dr. Duane Varan [08:54]
- Chinese audiences exhibited dramatically different emotional responses and narrative needs, underscoring the risk of simply importing Western ads:
-
Ethical Considerations: AI, Data, and Trust
[09:57]
- Two prongs: management and consumer-side ethics.
- Management:
- Rise of AI and big data is diminishing the traditional, transparent culture of science in decision-making.
“AI in particular is the antithesis of Science... Science is about transparency... AI is really about magic.”
— Dr. Duane Varan [11:13] - Concern over data being used to make arguments rather than guide unbiased decisions:
“That culture of turning to data to guide the decision... is giving way to this culture of using the data to make the argument.”
— Dr. Duane Varan [12:22]
- Rise of AI and big data is diminishing the traditional, transparent culture of science in decision-making.
- Consumer:
- Emergence of “deepfake” AI-generated advertising indistinguishable from real content.
“Today, you can no longer differentiate between the real ad and the AI ad. We’re at that stage now.”
— Dr. Duane Varan [13:22] - Solution: mandatory labeling of AI-generated content. Tests reveal negligible backlash:
“...labeling is a very responsible path. It’s a win, win proposition...”
— Dr. Duane Varan [14:33]
- Emergence of “deepfake” AI-generated advertising indistinguishable from real content.
- Management:
The Future of Ad Effectiveness Measurement
[16:09]
-
Synthetic AI-Derived Attention Metrics:
- Industry rush toward AI-generated attention scores—used without independent validation.
- Dr. Varan’s team's validation study found these metrics to be essentially random or worse:
“...the synthetic measures that we tested were absolutely horrific in terms of their predictability... you are talking here about pure garbage measurement.”
— Dr. Duane Varan [17:54] - Warning: market is “trading on numbers that they don’t even really know whether... meaningful...”
“Number one lesson... if it’s not validated, it should not be used. Just because it’s AI doesn’t mean that it’s going to actually work.”
— Dr. Duane Varan [19:16]
-
AI-Enabled Creative Testing Revolution:
- Example: Coca-Cola’s annual holiday ad—normally 1 year, now made in 30 days with AI; Dr. Varan's team replicated it in 2 hours with equivalent impact.
“...today it is possible to create ads that will deliver on par with real ads. And that could represent a real revolution in concept testing.”
— Dr. Duane Varan [20:42] - Breakdown in cost means even small businesses can afford “national ad” quality content for less than $100.
- AI enables rapid, predictive creative iteration before full investment.
- Example: Coca-Cola’s annual holiday ad—normally 1 year, now made in 30 days with AI; Dr. Varan's team replicated it in 2 hours with equivalent impact.
Notable Quotes and Moments
-
On the accidental career-changing call from Disney:
“We had pioneered some new methods for studying audience behavior... Disney called and they said, we have been following what you’re doing... you are literally the only person in the world who knows how to do this stuff... so you need to come and work for us.”
— Dr. Duane Varan [02:00] -
On the illusion of engagement in ads:
“The surprise for clients at least, is usually that not a lot is happening. I mean, especially with ads. People are often watching ads in a very non attentive kind of mode...”
— Dr. Duane Varan [04:42] -
On “synthetic attention metrics” in advertising:
“None of these measures in the market... have actually properly been independently validated. And yet the entire market has embraced them and is trading on them.”
— Dr. Duane Varan [17:24] -
On fast, AI-driven ad creation:
“We said, can we recreate it? It took us literally two hours for one video editor to recreate that ad in Media Pet. And it delivered the same impact.”
— Dr. Duane Varan [21:04]
Key Timestamps
- 01:46: Dr. Varan describes the pivotal transition from academia to industry after being approached by Disney
- 04:39: Neurometric methods reveal hidden audience reactions, including insights from the 2016 election debate and cross-cultural differences
- 09:57: Ethical considerations in the age of AI and big data: transparency, management culture, and consumer trust
- 13:22: Discussion on indistinguishable AI-generated ads and the case for labeling
- 16:09: The pitfalls of synthetic AI attention measurements; urgent need for independent validation
- 20:42: AI’s positive disruption: fast, affordable, and predictive ad creative testing at scale
Conclusion
Dr. Duane Varan brings a critical, evidence-based perspective to a fast-changing field. He cautions advertisers against over-reliance on unvalidated AI attention metrics while championing the powerful transformation AI offers for creative development and testing—where speed, realism, and cost-effectiveness are reaching unprecedented levels. Throughout, he emphasizes the ethical responsibility for transparency and validation in both management and consumer interactions, underscoring that, in the pursuit of innovation, science and trust must not be left behind.