Podcast
The Dismal Science
Hosted by The Australian Institute of Company Directors · EN
Join the AICD's Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell GAICD for this weekly deep dive into the latest economic news from Australia and around the world. From interest rates to trade wars and everything in between, we have you covered.
11episodes
Episodes
Newest firstAll episodes
220 - The RBA's Confident-but-also-Uncertain rate cut
May 2300:08:33Tap to summarizeWhen the RBA cut rates back in February this year it sounded cautious. This time it sounded confident. At least kind of. It also sounded pretty uncertain about the global economy...but then who isn't these days? This week's episode of the pod gives its quick take on the May 2025 rate cut and the prospects for more to come. For more insights from the AICD's Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell head to https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html.
Transcribe →219 - Markets, Tariffs, and the RBA Outlook
May 16, 202500:09:38Tap to summarizeIn this week's episode, we unpack the post-election market rally, Trump's unexpected retreat on tariffs and renewed trade talks with China, fresh data on wages and unemployment, and what to expect from next week's RBA meeting. A quick but sharp look at the key economic signals shaping the week. For more from AICD's Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell, head to: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html
Transcribe →218 - What should the RBA do?
May 2, 202500:10:17Tap to summarizeThe RBA's new Monetary Policy Board meets later this month to consider the case for a second rate cut in the current easing cycle. What will it make of Australia's election campaign, this week's inflation numbers, the recent rash of international forecast downgrades from the IMF, WTO and World Bank, and ongoing global trade policy uncertainty? Still high on Easter chocolate, the pod offers its unsolicited advice.
Transcribe →Special - Trump, Tariffs and Turmoil
Apr 16, 202500:08:49Tap to summarizeInstead of the traditional Easter Egg, the Dismal Science pod has a quick take on the implications of 'Liberation Day' and its aftermath in its Easter basket. It's tariff free! (Note, contents may include some discussion of trade policy tools.) For more economic insights from the AICD's Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell, including his weekly economic update, head to: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html.
Transcribe →Dismal Science Live at AGS: US Markets, CHIPS Act, Geopolitical Shifts, and Australian Economic Concerns
Mar 13, 202500:37:12Tap to summarizeIn this live from the Australian Governance Summit episode, hosts Raphael Dixon and Mark Thurwal analyze current economic and geopolitical developments. They discuss the "Trump trade" market fluctuations, US CHIPS Act's mixed impact on semiconductor manufacturing, and China's growing chip capabilities. The conversation covers Germany's potential defense spending increase, US steel tariffs affecting Australia, contradictions in US onshoring and immigration policies, and the possibility of talent flowing from the US to countries like Australia. Throughout, they offer practical investment guidance for navigating uncertain markets. Subscribe to Mark's weekly newsletter here
Transcribe →217 - GDP Relief and a Fracturing Global Order
Mar 6, 202500:18:52Tap to summarizeThis week on the Dismal Science, Raphael and Mark dissect the latest Australian GDP figures, revealing the end of the per capita recession, though productivity remains a concern with a third consecutive quarter of falling GDP per hour worked. Turning their attention to the global stage, they examine the evolving economic landscape in the United States, with the Atlanta Fed now forecasting contraction and the impact of newly implemented tariffs. They explore how these factors, coupled with significant geopolitical uncertainties including the suspension of US military aid to Ukraine, are contributing to market jitters and a shifting focus away from previous narratives like AI. Finally, they consider the potential economic ramifications of the US Department of Government Efficiency (Doge) initiative. Read Mark's weekly newsletter here: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html
Transcribe →216 - Eight reasons a soft landing is uncertain
Feb 27, 202500:36:24Tap to summarizeThis week, Raphael and Mark dissect the latest inflation data and react to recent rate cuts, examining whether the soft landing declared by the IMF is truly secure. Mark shares a sneak peek of his upcoming article in Company Director magazine, outlining eight key global uncertainties that could derail the current economic outlook. They explore topics such as diverging central bank rate paths, the impact of a potential Trump administration, the fraying rules-based international system, demographic transitions, technological revolutions (AI, bioscience, energy), the energy transition, state-based armed conflict, and domestic political uncertainty. Despite the risks, is there room for optimism, or are we heading towards a "G-Zero" world? Read Mark's weekly newsletter here: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html
Transcribe →215 - 🍾 Rate Cut Victory Lap! 🍾 AI's Sputnik Moment & the US' Smoot-Hawley Moment.
Feb 19, 202500:44:15Tap to summarizeWe're back, and we force Mark to take a victory lap for his February rate cut prediction! We dive into the details of the RBA's decision and its implications for future cuts. Then, we dissect the market freakout following the release of Deepseek's open-source AI model. What does it say about AI market leaders' valuations, the effectiveness of export controls and the future of AI? Finally, we discuss the return of "Tariff Man" and the potential for a Smoot-Hawley moment.
Transcribe →Special - Tech, AI, the New World Order, and the Future of Growth
Jan 6, 202500:49:21Tap to summarizeWe're taking a break from our usual format to look at some of the big technological and economic themes of 2024, and where they are going in 2025 and into the future. Mark and Raph discuss the explosion of AI and where it might be headed, as well as its impact on financial markets. We contemplate what might constitute the next big wave of global innovation. Will AI prove to be transformative or merely a sustaining innovation? And could the changing geopolitical landscape mean the end of hyper-globalisation? We will be back with our regular episodes in February. If you enjoyed or hated this episode, we'd love to hear your feedback! Send us an email: podcasts@aicd.com.au
Transcribe →Special - 2024 Wrap Up: A Year of Living Conservatively Ft. Su-Lin Ong
Dec 17, 202401:01:34Tap to summarizeThis week we are joined by Su-Lin Ong, Managing Director, Chief Economist & Senior Corporate Relationship Manager of RBC Capital Markets. Together Mark and Su-lin reflect on Australia's economic conditions and the RBA's 2024 performance. They unpack why the RBA has held interest rates steady for so long – and what this means for Australia's economic outlook, including a (mild) disagreement on the outlook for interest rates. Plus, they discuss the impact of a new US administration, the RBC's unique projections, the global easing cycle, and how Australia stacks up against the rest of the world. Subscribe to Mark's weekly column here: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html
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