The Dispatch Podcast: "Iran's Zombie Regime"

Date: February 10, 2026
Host: Steve Hayes
Panelists: Mike Warren, Mike Nelson
Guest: Karim Sajapur (Carnegie Endowment)

Overview

This episode explores the current unrest in Iran, prospects for regime transition, and the implications for U.S. foreign policy and the broader Middle East. The discussion draws on Iran analyst Karim Sajapur's expertise, examining recent mass protests, scenarios for Iran's future, the resilience of authoritarian regimes, and the role of external actors (notably the U.S.). The conversation then shifts to the grim toll of the four-year-old Ukraine-Russia war, Western policy responses, and finally a cultural discussion sparked by an Olympic athlete's candid remarks about representing the U.S.

Iran in Crisis: Regime Transition and Societal Forces

Context and Key Questions

• Backdrop: Iran is experiencing nationwide protests following a massacre of citizens by the regime. There are conflicting signals from the U.S.—military posturing, promises of support for protesters, and potential for new deals with the regime.
• Karim Sajapur’s essay/commentary: "The Autumn of the Ayatollahs" (Foreign Affairs).
• Central Question: Where is Iran heading amidst leadership uncertainty and unrest?

[03:18] Karim Sajapur on Iran’s Transitional Moment

• Iran is "on the cusp of a leadership transition," led by the aging (86-year-old) Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.
• The regime is "deeply unpopular" and "under enormous pressure both internally and externally."
• Historical analogies: Most transitions away from authoritarian regimes do not produce democracy ("Only about one in five lead to democracy. More often they lead to another form of authoritarianism.").
• Iranian society "very modern, wants to be part of the outside world"—a society that "aspires to be like South Korea," with a government aspiring "to be like North Korea."
• Uprisings are unpredictable; authoritarian transitions are rarely “popularity contests” but rather "coercive competition."

“It’s a government that aspires to be like North Korea, [but a] society that aspires to be like South Korea.” — Karim Sajapur [04:17]

Scenarios for Post-Khamenei Iran

• Original Foreign Affairs analysis ("Autumn of the Ayatollahs"): Sajapur laid out multiple scenarios—nationalist strongman, clerical continuity, military dominance, populist revival, or hybrid models.
• New Developments: Rising prominence of Reza Pahlavi (exiled former crown prince). Nationalist sentiment and monarchist nostalgia are growing, making constitutional monarchy more thinkable.

“Reza Pahlavi’s name was being chanted throughout many Iranian cities. So he’s become a factor in a way that I think people didn’t anticipate maybe six months ago.” — Karim Sajapur [07:00]

• The prospect of clerical rule continuing is old: “If Iran does have another strongman… the odds are very low that that strongman will be wearing a turban.” — Sajapur [07:55]

Popular Support for the Regime

• Sajapur estimates regime support as low as 15–20% ("utmost ceiling"), probably even less.
• Unique level of not just political, but social and economic authoritarianism—this makes the regime even more unpopular.
• Iran, with its resources and human capital, is an “economic basket case,” heightening public frustration.
• Regime longevity relies on security force unity and willingness to use violence, not mass support.

“I call the Islamic Republic a zombie regime because it has a dying ideology, dying legitimacy, a dying economy, a dying leader, but it still does have that lethal capacity.” — Sajapur [11:28]

Comparative Analysis: Revolution and Governance Models

• Mike Warren asks about Iranian leaders’ awareness of other post-authoritarian paths (Russia, China, Turkey, etc.)
• Sajapur: China’s model resonates—a move to pragmatic, economically productive authoritarianism without democracy, as does Turkey’s mix of religion and semi-democracy. Saudi-style “top-down” modernization is also on Iranian minds.
• Revolutionary Guard leadership is not likely to support any real pluralism.

“What has led to the downfall of so many dictatorships...is this kind of insistence on what I would call a monopolist ideology.” — Sajapur [14:54]

The Role of Individuals vs. Institutions

• Warren references the “great man” theory—does Iran need a prominent leader to change course?
• Sajapur endorses the idea for Iran: power has concentrated in very few hands the past century. There is a strong history and culture around powerful individual leaders, making personalized rule likely even in any transition.

“There is something about the political culture of Iran that tends to lend itself to these cults of personality.” — Sajapur [18:01]

U.S. Foreign Policy: External Actors and Dilemmas

[22:13] U.S. Intervention: Options and Pitfalls

• Mike Nelson asks Sajapur what advice he'd give the White House about possible interventions, regime “decapitation,” or deals with entities like the IRGC.
• Sajapur warns about U.S. intelligence gaps in Iran; previous regime-change attempts in places like Venezuela are not directly applicable.
• Trump administration leans toward action rather than caution—past moves include withdrawal from the nuclear deal, killing of Qasem Soleimani, and recent major air strikes ("Operation Midnight Hammer").

“Our level of knowledge and intelligence as a government vis a vis Iran is really low...I think as President Trump himself has evoked, he does see Venezuela as a playbook for Iran.” — Sajapur [23:26]

Democracy Promotion or Realpolitik?

• Hayes observes the American discourse under Trump is notably lacking any democracy-promoting language, even as the administration signals support for regime change in practice.
• Sajapur reflects on the loss of democracy “idealism” post-Iraq/Afghanistan and notes Iranians want “freedom,” but democracy isn’t central to their slogans. Pre-1979 monarchy is nostalgic, and people yearn for “normal life” (zendege normal), economic opportunity, and less intrusive government.

"I haven't heard the word democracy in these protest slogans...what people seem to be yearning for is...normal life." — Sajapur [29:07]

The Ukraine-Russia War: The Toll and Western Response

Setting the Scene

• As the war enters its fifth year, the death toll is surpassing 2 million, most of them Russian, with 35,000 Russian casualties a month reported last year ([31:40]).

[33:52] Mike Nelson on the Evolution of the War

• Early Russian blitz hoped to topple Kyiv—defeated by unexpected Ukrainian resistance.
• War has become a grinding “industrial-scale” conflict, reminiscent of WWII, featuring high-tech drone warfare but also immense casualties.
• Russia suffers the bulk of casualties due in part to indifferent doctrine: “Their technique seems to be to throw population at a problem...they have had it to spare in the past.” [39:12]
• Western desensitization and war fatigue is growing, posing a strategic risk for Ukraine.

[41:07] Just Ends vs. Peace at Any Price

• Nelson cautions against seeking an end to war merely to stop bloodshed—justice for Ukrainians and abducted children must be prioritized.
• Echoes previous discussion about the lack of strong, principled Western leadership defending such arguments, especially among Republicans:

“Bringing the conflict to an end in and of itself should not be our end. Bringing the conflict to an end in a justified way is.” — Mike Nelson [41:07]

[43:57] Trump’s Influence on U.S. Policy

• Hayes wonders whether Trump's personal sympathies for Russia have suppressed traditional GOP defenses of Ukrainian sovereignty.
• Warren: Leadership matters. With Trump at the top, “the rest of the party kind of falls in line,” whereas under different leadership, the GOP would likely rally defense of Ukraine (e.g., Congressman Don Bacon as rare exception).

Culture & Patriotism: The Olympic Skier Controversy

[47:48] Hunter Hess’ Comments on Team USA

• Olympic skier Hunter Hess expresses “mixed emotions” about representing the U.S. due to current events.
• President Trump labels him a “loser” and Megyn Kelly says he should be sent home.

Reactions:

• Mike Nelson: Hess’ remarks were inarticulate but mild; the only reason it’s a controversy is presidential amplification. Hess later clarified he’s proud to represent the U.S., especially for its tolerance of criticism.
• Mike Warren: The reaction is overblown, emblematic of Trump and his movement’s insecurities. In authoritarian states, athletes aren't allowed such speech—a U.S. strength.
• Steve Hayes: “Zero percent offended.” Reflects his own mixed emotions about the country, especially given Trump’s conduct. Notes Trump has built his career on criticizing the U.S.

“Who is Donald Trump to suggest that you can’t criticize the United States? I mean, the guy ran for president criticizing the United States, half of the United States.” — Steve Hayes [55:03]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “It’s a government that aspires to be like North Korea, [but a] society that aspires to be like South Korea.”
  — Karim Sajapur [04:17]
• “I call the Islamic Republic a zombie regime because it has a dying ideology, dying legitimacy, a dying economy, a dying leader, but it still does have that lethal capacity.”
  — Sajapur [11:28]
• “Bringing the conflict to an end in and of itself should not be our end. Bringing the conflict to an end in a justified way is.”
  — Mike Nelson [41:07]
• “Who is Donald Trump to suggest that you can’t criticize the United States? I mean, the guy ran for president criticizing the United States, half of the United States.”
  — Steve Hayes [55:03]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• 00:00–03:18: Show intro, upcoming topics, Karim Sajapur introduction
• 03:18–11:55: Discussion with Sajapur on current regime, prospects for change, public sentiment
• 11:55–19:07: Comparative political models for Iran; impact of leadership, “great man” theory
• 22:13–30:43: U.S. policy toward regime change; risks of intervention; democracy promotion
• 30:55–42:22: Russia-Ukraine war: casualties, strategy, Western fatigue, policy implications
• 47:48–56:22: Hunter Hess/Olympic patriotism controversy, Trump/Megyn Kelly response, panel’s takes

Overall Tone

The discussion is thoughtful and nuanced, alternating between sober analysis (particularly regarding foreign policy and war) and some wry frustration (notably with American politics and Trump’s influence). The panel maintains a questioning, balanced approach, with moments of both empathy and candor.

Conclusion

This episode of The Dispatch Podcast provides an in-depth look at Iran's precarious moment, drawing on recent events, long-term political trends, and comparative lessons from world history. The gravity of the Ukraine-Russia conflict—and the difficulty of maintaining Western focus—is brought into sharp relief, along with reflections on the dangerous consequences of leadership styles and political rhetoric, both internationally and domestically. The cultural debate on American patriotism is seen as a microcosm of broader anxieties about national identity, dissent, and what it means to represent the U.S. on the global stage.