The Dispatch Podcast

Episode: The Capture of Nicolás Maduro
Date: January 5, 2026
Host: Steve Hayes
Panel: Jonah Goldberg (The Dispatch), Mike Nelson (ret. Army Special Forces, Atlantic Council), Gil Guerra (Niskanen Center, Dispatch), plus extended commentary

Overview

This episode tackles the U.S. special operations raid that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. The panel examines the Trump administration’s evolving rationales for intervention, the consequences for Venezuela, implications for U.S. policy, and what this event signals about American power in the hemisphere, Trump’s foreign policy style, and broader global strategy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. What Happened and Administrative Rationale(s)

• In the early hours of January 3rd, elite U.S. special operators extracted Nicolás Maduro and his wife from their compound in a swift raid, with zero U.S. casualties ([00:55]). Maduro was taken to the USS Iwo Jima for extradition to face U.S. weapons and drug charges.

• The administration’s justifications have shifted: initially emphasizing drugs, then oil, migration, democracy, and raw power ([03:33], [08:50]).

  Quote:
  "The United States removed Maduro because it could."
  — Steve Hayes quoting Gil Guerra’s article ([08:50])

• Internal motivations seem multifaceted: Rubio prioritizes regional stability/democracy; Trump is openly interested in oil; Stephen Miller is focused on migration ([07:30]).

  Quote:
  "Trump himself, in this bizarre press conference over the weekend, sort of shrugged his shoulders and said it was oil, didn't really make much of an argument to disguise that as his primary intention."
  — Steve Hayes ([08:50])

2. Analysis of Official Reasons—Stated vs. Actual Motives

• Gil Guerra: Emphasized that letting the status quo stand would exacerbate drug trafficking, strengthen authoritarian networks, worsen the migration crisis, and delegitimize Venezuela’s democratic opposition.
  "The costs that were being imposed by the status quo... were just making it more difficult for what was almost certainly an inevitable action in the future." ([10:15])

• There is concern that the dominant rationale is simply American capability and presidential will, rather than any clear, consistent strategy ([08:50], [10:15]).

• Jonah Goldberg notes the administration’s messaging is “pretextual”—public arguments appear tailored to Trump’s instincts or immediate messaging needs, not long-term policymaking ([16:05]).

  Quote:
  "Almost all political arguments these days, particularly those coming from Trump and the Republican Party, are pretextual... they're not actually making the arguments on the merits."
  — Jonah Goldberg ([16:05])

3. Regime Change or Regime Retention?

• Mike Nelson highlights that although Maduro was removed, many regime figures remain, meaning this is less about true regime change and more about "regime retention" for U.S. interests ([13:03]).

  Quote:
  "We've seen is it's not [regime change]. It's actually regime retention. You know, we removed Maduro, but we left his cadre, his cohort behind to administer the state of Venezuela."
  — Mike Nelson ([13:03])

• Concerns over whether this “pause” will transition to genuine democracy or simply install a pliant authoritarian government favorable to U.S. oil interests ([13:03], [62:10]).

4. Communication and Congressional Buy-In

• Goldberg and Hayes stress the lack of a coherent, up-front argument to the public or Congress ([16:05], [36:45]).

• Not seeking Congressional buy-in makes policy riskier, with no shared political responsibility if complexities arise ([16:05], [36:45]).

  Quote:
  "Part of the reason why you want to go to Congress is that when, if this stuff goes belly up, you are not entirely 100% responsible for it."
  — Jonah Goldberg ([16:05])

5. Drug-Trafficking Justification—How Realistic?

• A clip from Juan Cruz (ex-Trump adviser) confirms Venezuela’s main drug role is as a transshipment point, not major producer of U.S.-bound fentanyl ([24:00]).

• Gil Guerra: Emphasis on drugs was “disingenuous”—narco trafficking provided political cover, but is not a strong rationale ([25:06]).

• Administration’s handling of Juan Orlando Hernandez's pardon (former Honduran president convicted for drug trafficking) exposes inconsistency and hypocrisy ([29:02]).

  Quote:
  "You can't say that this is about drugs and then switch it around and actually say that, no, no, it's about oil."
  — Gil Guerra ([25:06])

6. The Trump Factor—Presidential Instinct, Style, and Dangers

• Panelists deeply skeptical of trying to rationalize Trump’s decisions with traditional statecraft logic ([39:53]).

  Quote:
  "Trump does things for his own reasons... anybody who tries to impose a rational, coherent, ideological or philosophical orientation on Donald Trump will eventually be made a fool."
  — Jonah Goldberg ([39:53])

• Foreign policy is driven by Trump's instincts, personal mood, and a performative “strongman” ethic ([43:47], [53:59]).

• There’s unease about the aggrandizement of American power without limits or foresight.

7. Geography, the ‘Donroe’ Doctrine, and Monroe Doctrine Redux

• Geography is invoked as the key justification for U.S. action—Latin America seen as "our backyard" ([44:50]).

• Goldberg: Monroe Doctrine appeals directly to Trump’s personalistic worldview; many aides pitch arguments so they’ll "sell with the boss" ([44:50]).

  Quote:
  "I think this Monroe Doctrine stuff, Donro Doctrine stuff, appeals to Trump because it appeals to his worldview... he likes this idea that this is our turf that he can flex here."
  — Jonah Goldberg ([44:50])

8. Potential Outcomes and Pitfalls

• Positives:

  • Possible deterrent effect on bad actors (e.g., Iran reconsidering actions) ([59:24]).
  • Avoids some Iraq-style “de-Ba'athification” as much regime infrastructure remains ([59:24]).
  • Possible weakening of Cuban, Iranian, and Russian influence in the region ([62:10]).

• Negatives/Pitfalls:

  • Risk of merely replacing Maduro with another authoritarian, preserving “Chavismo without Maduro” ([62:10]).
  • Lack of a coherent, democratic plan; extreme decentralization of Venezuela makes effective governance difficult ([65:40]).
  • If oil extraction is primary goal, risk of U.S. extracting resources and abandoning Venezuela’s welfare ([62:10]).
  • Fear of emboldening an impulsive Trump to further reckless, ad hoc foreign interventions—Greenland, Cuba, Colombia invoked ([69:23]).

  Quote:
  "What if this is successful or deemed successful... what is the lesson that this administration takes from a 'success'?"
  — Jonah Goldberg ([69:23])

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On U.S. Motivation:
  "The United States removed Maduro because it could." — Gil Guerra ([08:50])

• On Trump’s Foreign Policy:
  "He wants to appear like a strongman. I think he has got a patrimonial sort of mob-like attitude... the Americas are our turf." — Jonah Goldberg ([41:03])

• On Messaging and Rationalization:
  "The kind of people who go on who in seminars think, oh, we'll just degender the Spanish language. Don't really talk to a lot of normal Spanish speaking people about these kinds of things." — Jonah Goldberg ([75:29])

• On U.S. Responsibility:
  "If you want your policy to succeed, you need to actually have, I think, buy in from the public and from other sectors of society." — Gil Guerra ([25:06])

Noteworthy Timestamps

• [00:55] — Recap of the Maduro raid and official statements.
• [03:33] — Gil Guerra's initial analysis: status quo costs, drug trade, oil, migration, democracy, deterrence.
• [08:50] — Discussion shifts to “because we could” as the real rationale.
• [13:03] — Mike Nelson: regime change vs. regime retention.
• [16:05] — Jonah Goldberg: administration’s arguments as pretextual and performative.
• [24:00] — Juan Cruz clip on Venezuela’s drug role.
• [25:06] — Gil Guerra: drug narrative’s incoherence and misleading public messaging.
• [29:02] — Contradictions exposed by the pardon of Juan Orlando Hernandez.
• [36:45] — Congressional buy-in and executive risk.
• [44:50] — The prominence of geography & the ‘Donroe Doctrine’.
• [53:59] — Trump’s inconsistency as the only consistent thing.
• [59:24] — Potential deterrent effect and pitfalls post-Maduro.
• [62:10] — Risks of “Chavismo without Maduro”; challenge of Venezuelan decentralization.
• [69:23] — Dangers of emboldening further reckless Trump interventions.

Closing — Name Pronunciation & Cultural Moments

• The group ends on a lighter note, using a SNL skit about Spanish pronunciation to riff on cultural disconnects in U.S. media, identity, and the tone-deafness of elite discourse ([71:39]-[77:11]).

  Quote:
  "My parents named me Gilbert. They did not want me out here saying, you know, my name is, you know, Gilbert Guerra, right? Like it, it sort of sounds ridiculous to me whenever this is happening." — Gil Guerra ([73:48])

Panel Tone & Final Takeaways

• Candid, occasionally sardonic—expressing both unease and hope.
• Panelists agree the operation’s military execution was impressive, but see a troubling lack of strategy and a dangerous precedent set by raw projection of power absent democratic, diplomatic, or legislative consensus.
• Overarching sense: this moment may yield positive outcomes, but also reveals the hazards of impulsive leadership and an America wielding might for its own sake.

For listeners: This episode captures, with rigor and wit, the debate over U.S. intervention, presidential style, and the unfolding meaning of American power under Trump.