The Dispatch Podcast: "The Eunuch Congress" | Roundtable

Date: December 9, 2025
Host: Steve Hayes
Guests: Chris Stirewalt (AEI, News Nation), David Drucker, Mike Warren

Overview

This roundtable dives deep into the current state and future prospects of American politics, with a special focus on the dysfunction and self-weakening of Congress—hence the provocative title, "The Eunuch Congress." The panel analyzes the fallout from 2025's off-year elections, the swelling wave of Congressional retirements, challenges of redistricting, party favorability numbers, the evolving nature of primary electorates, and the looming 2028 presidential cycle with figures like J.D. Vance. The episode closes with a lighter segment on Donald Trump’s FIFA Peace Prize and his controversial suggestion to rename American football.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. State of the Parties After the 2025 Elections

• Electoral Prospects:
  • Chris Stirewalt emphasized that what looked like a good cycle for Republicans in July is now shifting towards significant Democratic gains due to Republican retirements and weakening House incumbency.
  • "We were once in a 10 to 15 seat range for Republican gains and now we’re in a 15 to 33 seat range for Democrat gains." (03:10, Chris)
• Incumbency Retention:
  • Incumbency rates remain high (92-98%), but mass retirements—potentially 40+ GOP members in the next cycle—make many safe seats competitive.
  • "If you take the incumbent out of that equation and the map expands." (04:03, Chris)

2. Why Everyone Hates Congress, But Loves Their Congressman

• Public Trust Paradox:
  • Americans universally distrust Congress but still re-elect their own representatives due to personal loyalty and the power of incumbency.
  • “Americans don't like Congress, they like their member of Congress.” (05:43, Chris)

3. Impact and Meaning of Congressional Retirements

• Why So Many GOP Retirements?
  • The job is seen as miserable: broken legislative process, constant fundraising, social media clownery, disempowered committees, and rampant self-promotion drive out experienced lawmakers.
  • “Congress has castrated itself bit by bit over time...the idiocracy deepens because the good ones leave and the ones who want to run are dumb.” (37:10, Chris)
• Incentives & Brain Drain:
  • Past showhorses and policy-minded members (e.g., Paul Ryan, Mike Gallagher, Jeb Hensarling) are leaving, further eroding congressional capacity and seriousness.
• Culture Shift:
  • The new incentive system rewards fame and attention, not legislative accomplishment, discouraging traditional public service.

4. Negative Partisanship and Party Favorability

• Polling Reality:
  • Both parties are historically unpopular: GOP at –13 favorability, Democrats at –23, but Democrats have a +5 edge on the generic ballot. (11:04, Steve)
• Why Democrats Lead the Generic Ballot Despite Low Favorability:
  • Negative partisanship: core Democratic voters dislike their own party, but hate Trump and Republicans more—so they still show up.
  • “Negative partisanship really drives our politics these days.” (13:09, David)
  • Democratic discontent comes from wanting their party to fight harder, not ideological opposition. (16:49, Chris)

5. The 'Eunuch Congress': Dysfunction and Reform

• Devolution of Power:
  • Committee term limits (enacted by Gingrich-era GOP) and centralization of power in leadership have disempowered committees and ordinary members.
  • “Article 1 branch, basically turning itself into the article none branch.” (41:50, David)
• Life in Congress:
  • Grueling travel, meager pay after taxes, scrutiny for relocating families, and limited power vs. leadership make the job increasingly undesirable.
  • "It's just a really thankless job...after taxes doesn't pay all that much, you don't get a housing stipend." (42:24, David)
• Potential Solutions:
  • Restore committee power.
  • Expand the House to dilute the value of each seat and create more legislative opportunity.
    • “Expand the House. We need another 218 members of the House. We've got to increase it by 50%.” (45:27, Chris)
  • Primary and redistricting reform; perhaps even term limits, though current incentives make such reforms unlikely without massive public pressure.

6. Redistricting Battles: Same Old Gerrymandering

• Mid-Decade GOP Moves:
  • Trump and GOP push for mid-decade redistricting in red states for advantage; Democratic states respond similarly.
  • "It was, there was, there was no hiding it...while Donald Trump was the most candid and open about the political motivations, the motivations themselves are not new. That's what redistricting has been for decade after decade." (55:02, Steve)
• End Result:
  • Despite shuffling, it’s a wash: the expected partisan impact was nullified by backlash, local resistance, and pushback in unexpected states.

7. 2028 Presidential Preview: Can JD Vance Walk Into the Nomination?

Reporting from David Drucker’s Article (57:51–62:34)

• Is Vance a Shoo-In?
  • Vance (Trump’s VP) holds high favorability among MAGA Republicans and has Trump’s expected endorsement and infrastructure.
  • GOP insiders think few formidable challengers will run if 2026 midterms aren’t catastrophic. If 2026 is a GOP bloodbath, the field will open wide.
  • Uncertainty reigns: “It’s not actually too early [to talk about this]...these things really get underway the day after the midterm elections.” (58:21, David)
• Panel Skepticism:
  • Steve and Mike: Vance is not especially likable or tested as a candidate—he barely squeaked by in Ohio while Mike DeWine swept.
  • “J.D. Vance is, to me, not a very likable potential candidate...He presents often as abrasive. He has embraced this kind of post-liberal, in some ways anti-democratic, small d, view.” (70:33, Steve)
  • “Six point margin of victory for JD Vance...Mike DeWine wins by 24 points. That to me says everything about JD Vance’s electability.” (71:57, Mike)
• Potential for Chaos:
  • The field may be far more open than current MAGA consensus suggests, especially with lingering/or new Trump fatigue and if the GOP is perceived as failing.
  • "I expect [Trump] will want to be asked to seek a third term...It will be important to him that the people running begin by saying, 'I wish President Trump could remain.'" (66:08, Chris)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Congressional Dysfunction:
  • "Congress has castrated itself bit by bit over time. And then we wonder why people don’t want to stay in." (37:10, Chris)
  • “Article 1 branch...into the article none branch.” (41:50, David)
• On Partisan Motivation:
  • "Negative partisanship really drives our politics these days." (13:09, David)
• On Political Award Shows:
  • On Trump’s FIFA Peace Prize:
    • “In that moment on that stage...can you imagine what TV producer Donald Trump would have said if they had brought to him the idea, we're going to have a fake selection process...If you give him an award...” (79:06–80:33, Chris)
    • “There's a certain amount of, I respect the game here...They figured out what to do...to get him on their side.” (84:30, Mike)
• On Football:
  • Steve: "What’s he going to do next, propose the metric system? It really is sort of like outrageous." (86:52)

Timestamps of Important Segments

• State of the Parties / GOP Retirements & Incumbency: 02:36–07:05
• Public Trust Paradox & Negative Partisanship: 11:04–19:16
• What's Wrong in Congress? Retirements & Dysfunction: 33:13–40:29
• Can the Trends Be Reversed? Institutional Reforms?: 40:36–47:14
• Redistricting Overview: 51:37–55:32
• J.D. Vance, the 2028 Nomination & Future of GOP: 57:34–75:15
• Donald Trump’s FIFA Peace Prize and the ‘Football’ Controversy: 75:41–86:58

Tone & Language

The conversation is candid, irreverent, and laced with both humor and pessimism about the future of American political institutions. The analysts speak as seasoned observers, exasperated with current trends but invested in explaining how we got here and what could be around the corner.

Closing Reflections

The roundtable underscores a recurring theme of institutional decay in Congress, driven by self-abdication, negative partisanship, broken incentives, and the triumph of performative politics over legislative substance. Panelists warn that without serious structural reforms—from restoring committee power to expanding the House—the trends are likely to worsen. The preview of 2028 dramatizes how much the personality cult around Trump looms over both parties’ futures, while Congressional dysfunction continues to alienate talented leaders. The recurring joke about Trump’s FIFA honor and his war on “American football” is a fitting metaphor for how unserious—yet impactful—modern political spectacle has become.

Listen for:

• Deep dives on congressional culture (37:10–40:29)
• What would actually make congressional service attractive or effective again? (40:53–47:14)
• The real GOP 2028 battle, and why the “sure thing” never is (57:34–75:15)
• Absurdity of political pageantry in the age of Trump (75:41–86:58)