The Dispatch Podcast – Episode Summary

Episode Title: The Rise of Gambling in the U.S.
Release Date: March 20, 2026
Host: Steve Hayes
Guests: Jonah Goldberg, David French, Megan McCarthy Cardle

Overview

This episode explores the dramatic rise of gambling and prediction markets in America. The panel investigates the causes, consequences, and ethical concerns surrounding the newfound ubiquity of sports betting and wagering on virtually any outcome—including real-world events and politics. The hosts also examine the impact of these trends on individual lives, sports, government, and societal values, and touch on related issues such as policy, regulation, and the potential for gambling to corrupt institutions. In the latter part of the episode, the panel briefly shifts focus to U.S.-Israel tensions regarding Iran and closes with a lighthearted look at the political prospects of a vegan candidate in Texas.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Gambling Explosion: What’s Changed?

• Accessibility and Ubiquity: Gambling, previously limited to specific locations (e.g., Las Vegas, Atlantic City), is now omnipresent, accessible via phones and computers. Americans can wager on anything from March Madness brackets to election outcomes and even military strikes.
  • Steve Hayes: “Twenty years ago, gambling… was mostly limited to Vegas, Atlantic City, Indian reservations, and neighborhood poker games. Now it’s everywhere…” [01:29]
• Massive Growth: Legal sports betting in America grew from $4.9B in 2017 to at least $160B in 2025 ([01:29]).

2. Why Is Gambling So Popular—and So Dangerous?

• The Fun and the Hook: Gambling's rapid spread is due to its fun, competitive nature and the thrill it offers, especially with real-time prop-betting.
• Addictive Design: Betting apps create a “slot machine effect,” offering constant opportunities, reinforcing addictive behaviors.
  • David French: “The prop betting aspect… introduces almost a slot machine effect while you’re watching.” [04:22]
• Illusion of Expertise: Many fans believe their sports knowledge gives them an edge, but most are “marks” (easy targets for operators).
  • David French: “I have enough sports ego to think I’ve got real insight… when all I am is just a fan.” [06:00]
• Low Barriers, High Risks: The ease of placing bets—on sports and beyond—has removed former friction and amplified risks.

3. Societal and Cultural Impacts

• Normalization: Gambling and betting are now tightly interwoven with sports commentary, fantasy leagues, and even content platforms.
  • Steve Hayes: “It’s almost impossible to listen to a fantasy football podcast… that doesn’t immediately get into betting and parlays and odds and prop bets…” [07:31]
• Betting on Everything: New platforms (e.g., Polymarket, Kalshi) allow bets on anything, fostering environments where insider information can be monetized.
  • Jonah Goldberg: “It’s turning all of life into places where you can monetize insider information.” [09:27]

4. Regulation, Responsibility & Libertarianism

• Government Failure: The panel criticizes Congress for failing to address the widespread consequences of legal gambling.
  • Jonah Goldberg: “Congress… took money from casino lobbyists to do nothing or less than nothing. And I never thought gambling should be made illegal, but we were better off when it was contained…” [10:45]
• Libertarian Dilemma: Megan provides a nuanced libertarian defense—arguing that most gamblers treat it as entertainment, but acknowledges the minority harmed by addiction.
  • Megan: “Most people who gamble are like me... set budget... little fun and then stop… But there’s a real power law; a small number lose everything.” [14:09]
• Social Technology and Adaptation: Societal learning (observing others’ tragedies) may have a moderating effect, reducing extreme harm over time.
• Comparisons with Alcohol: Questioning the logic of banning gambling when more destructive vices (like alcohol) remain legal and regulated.

5. Threats to Sports Integrity & Vulnerable Populations

• Corruption & Pressure on Athletes: The lure of gambling creates new incentives for cheating and places unique threats and scrutiny on athletes.
  • David French: “The incentives for athletes to cheat, especially in prop betting, are skyrocketing. We’ve had multiple arrests.” [19:20]
• Impact on Children & Frictionless Access: The panel raises alarm about the lack of barriers—anyone, anywhere, anytime can bet.

6. Prediction Markets – Opportunity or Risk?

• Insider Trading at Scale: New prediction markets can be abused by anyone with insider access, with no regulatory safeguards yet in place.
  • Steve Hayes: “It’s very easy to see... where this can be abused. Where you have people… saying, ‘Hey, will you say this thing so I can win my bet?’” [34:33]
  • Memorable example: A journalist bombarded with threats to change a report, likely motivated by a huge bet linked to the outcome. [45:20]
    • Steve Hayes: “If you do not correct us by 1 o’clock Israel time today... you are bringing upon yourself damage you have never imagined you would suffer.” [46:28]
• Need for Legal Structure: Prediction markets offer valuable information but require robust legal and ethical frameworks to prevent abuse.
  • Megan: “We are going to get a scandal… and Congress is eventually just going to add those prediction markets to SEC insider trading coverage…” [40:20]
• Panel Suggestions: Ban government employees from prediction market betting; add legal restrictions for those with conflict of interest; develop ‘social technology’ (cultural adaptation and institutional infrastructure).

7. Clarifying the Scope of the Problem

• Data Uncertainty: It’s unclear how much of the “growth” is truly new activity versus a shift from illegal to legal channels.
  • Megan: “We don’t actually know how much overall gambling increased because it went from being illegal to legal… This is what statisticians call a dark number.” [32:39]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Steve Hayes [01:29]: “I can choose fantasy or I can choose betting... including a link to casinos. Twenty years ago... now it’s everywhere...”
• David French [04:22]: “The prop betting aspect… almost a slot machine effect while you’re watching... it’s challenging, it’s fun, and it’s easy to see why they slide into it.”
• Jonah Goldberg [09:27]: “…it’s turning all of life into places where you can monetize insider information.”
• Megan McCarthy Cardle [15:41]: “160 billion sounds like a lot… It’s about what Americans spend every year on their pets.”
• David French [19:20]: “It is what is gambling doing to the sport itself. The atmosphere of threat that athletes are under now is absurd, just absurd.”
• Steve Hayes [34:33]: “It’s very easy to see... where you have people... saying, ‘Hey, will you say this thing so I can win my bet?’”
• Steve Hayes [46:28]: “If you do not correct us by 1 o’clock Israel time today... you are bringing upon yourself damage you have never imagined you would suffer.”
• Jonah Goldberg [23:35]: "Like one reason they're talking about how terrible alcohol is. I am drunk right now."
• Jonah Goldberg [70:04]: “You know how you can tell somebody is a vegan or a crossfitter? They tell you.”

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 03:39 — David French describes the addictive appeal and quick personal losses in sports betting.
• 07:31 — Start of discussion on fantasy football’s shift toward betting.
• 08:58 — Intro to prediction markets, Polymarket, and betting on anything.
• 10:45 — Critique of Congressional inaction and regulatory gaps.
• 14:09 — Megan’s personal anecdote about micro-betting and the dangers of addiction.
• 19:20 — Impact of gambling on athletes and sports integrity.
• 34:33 — Deep dive into the dangers and abuse of prediction markets.
• 40:20 — Discussion on anticipated regulation and insider trading laws.
• 45:20 — Journalist threatened over reporting outcome tied to a prediction market bet.
• 61:53 — Transition to ‘Not Worth Your Time’: Can a pro-vegan candidate survive in Texas?

Quick Section: U.S–Israel Tensions Over Iran

Focus: Differing objectives between U.S. and Israel regarding the Iran conflict.

• Jonah Goldberg & David French: There are clear, structural tensions between the respective national interests. Trump’s decision-making is seen as driven by perceived self-interest rather than grand strategy, which increases unpredictability for Israel and the region. [51:40, 56:18]
• David French: Israel faces direct threat; U.S. faces potential blowback (e.g., oil market disruption).
• Megan McCarthy Cardle: Cautions about predicting Trump’s actions or declaring victory prematurely. [61:00]

“Not Worth Your Time”: Can a Pro-Vegan Win in Texas?

• Viral Clip: Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico touting a meat-free, vegan campaign.
• Panel Consensus: It’s likely damaging, reinforcing cultural stereotypes about liberal out-of-touchness.
  • David French: “It’s silly that this could hurt him… But could this hurt him? Yeah, it could hurt him.” [63:24]
  • Megan: “Vegan pizza, first of all, is like the worst vegan food.” [67:52]
  • Jonah Goldberg: “If you can speak [code talk] fluently, you are not who you’re pretending to be.” [70:04]

Final Notes

• Panel Tone: Conversational, candid, sometimes irreverent (“I am drunk right now.” “If Bill Paxton’s the nominee…”).
• Bottom Line: The social, technological, and legal landscape of gambling is shifting rapidly; the need for thoughtful policy, awareness of addiction, and institutional adaptation is urgent as the consequences ripple across sports, politics, and everyday life.

For further exploration, see:

• McKay Coppins, “The Perfectly Legal Addiction” (The Atlantic)
• Times of Israel, Emmanuel Fabian blog on reporting under prediction market pressure