The Dispatch Podcast – "They Never Believed Any Of It | Roundtable"

Date: April 25, 2025
Host: Sarah Isgur
Panelists: Steve Hayes, Jonah Goldberg, David French

Episode Overview

This roundtable episode dives into the current state of American politics, focusing on U.S. foreign policy under the Trump administration, internal GOP dynamics, ideological metamorphoses, and the surging influence of conspiracy thinking on the right. The panel also briefly celebrates The Dispatch’s acquisition of SCOTUS Blog. Discussion is candid and sometimes satirical, with signature Dispatch wit framing the analysis.

SCOTUS Blog Acquisition & The Importance of Judicial Coverage

[01:23–04:11]

• Sarah Isgur enthusiastically announces that The Dispatch has acquired SCOTUS Blog, emphasizing its role as the “Kleenex of legal coverage”—the essential source for Supreme Court news and analysis.
  • “It is both the brand and the product.” (01:56, Sarah Isgur)
• Light banter ensues regarding titles (e.g., “Lord Protector,” “Grand Poobah”) and the workload shift for the Advisory Opinions/Dispatch Law team.
• David French and Steve Hayes joke about not keeping up with Advisory Opinions but highlight the increasingly critical role of judicial coverage as legislative power wanes and the judiciary decides more key policy issues.
  • French: “The judiciary is where the action is likely to be.” (03:29, David French)
  • Hayes: “We could be beating Rogan in the ratings and you would still not listen.” (03:26, Steve Hayes)

The Trump Administration, Ukraine, and U.S.–Russia Policy

[04:11–19:49]

U.S. Tries to Broker “Peace”—But Favors Russia

• Isgur introduces the topic: Top U.S. officials (Rubio, Witkoff) have bailed on crucial Ukraine talks amid an American-led push for a “peace plan” requiring Ukrainian concessions on Crimea—something President Zelensky categorically rejects.
  • “There is nothing to talk about. This violates our constitution. This is our territory…” (04:39, quoting Zelensky via Isgur)
• David French criticizes the Trump administration for blaming Ukraine for the lack of peace, describing Trump’s approach as a series of preemptive concessions to Russia:
  • “He’s failed because he’s on Russia’s side and Russia wants more from the Trump administration…if you're Vladimir Putin…why would we stop this non negotiation negotiation when we are getting everything we want?” (06:14, David French)
• French also notes Trump’s tepid criticism of Russian strikes on Kyiv: “‘Not necessary and very bad timing. Vladimir, stop. 5,000 soldiers a week are dying. Let’s get the peace deal done.’ I think that’s the harshest thing Donald Trump may have ever said to Vladimir Putin. And it’s not very harsh…” (09:18, David French)

Why Hasn’t Ukraine Folded?

• Steve Hayes argues Ukraine’s endurance is rooted in self-determination, improved military capability (especially indigenous drones), and a tightening alliance with Europe, while Russia, though larger, is weakened and unable to break through.
  • “Ukraine wants to continue fighting… It has built an indigenous drone industry…Ukraine is more self-sufficient.” (10:58, Steve Hayes)
  • “America is now being perceived as a Russian ally imposing Russian demands on a nation that has spilled an enormous amount of blood…” (14:59, Steve Hayes)

Europe’s Changing Attitude

• Jonah Goldberg notes the shift in rhetoric: The conflict is now seen in Western Europe less as a direct analog to WWII and more as a local affair—excluding, crucially, the Baltics and Poland who remain fearful of Russian imperialism.
  • “It’s not so much that Putin is going to have a triumph in Paris, it’s that Putin…would be able to dictate the foreign policy course for the rest of Europe…” (18:36, Jonah Goldberg)
• He humorously analogizes Trump’s negotiation style: “Let’s say I’m gonna have this deal. Sarah, you get a million dollars and a house…Steve, you get root canal and a colonoscopy with no anesthesia. Now, weirdly, Steve is much more difficult to deal with in the negotiations.” (16:34, Jonah Goldberg)

Defining Trump’s Foreign Policy: Sovereigntist, Spheres of Influence, or Mob Boss?

[22:08–34:38]

Sovereigntist, Not Isolationist

• Goldberg introduces the concept of “sovereigntism”—not classic isolationism, but a reflexive resistance to constraints of any kind (alliances, treaties, obligations).
  • “Sovereignties position is we just get to do whatever the damn hell we want…” (23:28, Jonah Goldberg)
  • On Trump’s foreign policy: “It's just Trump getting to do what he wants, where he wants…” (24:32, Jonah Goldberg)
  • Pete Hegseth, Trump’s Secretary of Defense, is characterized as a symbol for showy, manly strength, rather than any specific doctrine.

Spheres of Influence

• Steve Hayes: Argues Trump operates on an old-world model, where great powers dominate their “natural” spheres:
  • “He sees Ukraine as in Russia’s sphere of influence… Canada as within our sphere… the big boys get to do what they want to do in their sphere of influence.” (26:55, Steve Hayes)
  • Warns this model historically generates instability: “Nobody actually ends up agreeing on where one sphere ends and the other sphere begins…” (29:05, Steve Hayes)

Mob Boss Psychology

• Goldberg reframes Trump’s approach as “Don Corleone style:” Trump expects loyalty and subservience; peers (Putin, Xi) are peers—everyone else is a subordinate.
  • “In your mob family…your earners don’t kick up enough and show you respect, you can kick the crap out of them…but the head of another family, he deserves respect.” (30:49, Jonah Goldberg)

No Fixed Worldview, Only Instinct

• French: Trump’s approach is not geostrategic but psychological: He craves respect and praise, not ideological coherence.
  • “This is much less geostrategic and geopolitical and much more psychological…he wants people who pay obeisance to Trump and he wants people who allow him to look powerful.” (32:16, David French)
• Underlines that real ideological fights are between Trump’s aides, not Trump himself.

GOP Dynamics: From Reaganism to Institutional Loyalty

[34:38–46:09]

Administration Turnover: Supplanting Old-School Conservatism

• Sarah Isgur asks whether all non-MAGA worldviews have been excised from Trump’s circle. Steve Hayes and David French argue:
  • Yes, most Reaganite types (like Pompeo, Pence, Mattis) are gone; remaining figures (Rubio, Waltz) publicly toe the Trumpist line even if privately they have reservations.
  • “I think you are right… the fight is virtually over. It’s just a matter of how long somebody like Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio can survive.” (39:42, Steve Hayes/40:03 David French)

Rise of Institutional Cowardice and Careerism

• Goldberg: Former ideological debates have been stamped out—now what matters is submission and personal loyalty to Trump.
  • “Another way of putting that is…everyone’s been institutionalized…they’re just cowards now, and it doesn’t really matter what they believe. Belief’s got nothing to do with it.” (40:03, Jonah Goldberg)
• Hayes: Trump discovered early that few in politics would actually risk anything for their convictions—most will hide, defect, or look for advantage if put under pressure.
  • “He realized that very few people will engage, will bear any risk. This includes…Republican members of Congress and Republican senators for years.” (43:26, Steve Hayes)
• French: Many in power don’t actually believe in anything—“a lot of people in politics don’t believe anything… it’s a means to an end.” (44:47, David French)

Pence vs. Vance: The Vice Presidency as a Bellwether

[48:08–57:54]

• Isgur explores what replacing Pence with J.D. Vance signals.
• Steve Hayes: Pence was recruited as a concession to Reaganites and evangelicals, and sometimes served as a check on Trump. Vance is selected for loyalty and has little practical restraining influence.
  • “Pence was somebody who was selected as a kind of concession to Trump’s perceptions of the old Republican Party…He doesn’t need any of that anymore.” (48:34, Steve Hayes)
  • On the first major military decision, “Steve Miller just waltzed into that chat and big footed the heck out of J.D. Vance.” (50:59, Steve Hayes)
• Goldberg: Doubts that Vance is the “new leader” of the GOP or its inevitable future, citing weak electoral history and the non-transferability of Trump’s cult of personality.
  • “If I had to…bet on Vance or bet on the field, bet on everybody else, I’d bet on everybody else.” (51:16, Jonah Goldberg)
• French: Pence sometimes successfully checked Trump’s more authoritarian or rash impulses; Vance actively eggs Trump on.
  • “Pence was a check on Trump’s authoritarian instincts…Vance…affirms Trump’s authoritarian instincts and pulls him further in his own ideological direction.” (55:01, David French)

The Psychology and Spread of Conspiracism

[57:54–72:13]

Why Now? And Is It Just a MAGA Thing?

• Sarah Isgur notes a resurgence in classic right-wing conspiracy theories (moon landing denial, 9/11 truthers), citing Candace Owens’s quip: “NASA is fake and gay.”
• The panel explores why conspiracy thinking is rampant:
  • Steve Hayes: A chunk of “MAGA engagement” online is actually amplified by bots, foreign actors, and social media dynamics. But there is a real, growing population in the U.S. primed to believe or want to believe they’ve been lied to.
    • “Not that they are open to the idea that they have been lied to. They’re eager for confirmation that they’ve been lied to.” (60:41, Steve Hayes)
  • Jonah Goldberg: Conspiracy theories provide psychic reward mainly when they puncture high-status targets (moon landing, not Lake Erie pollution). “It’s turning over a big turtle.”
  • David French: The internet makes it easy for anyone to find validation for wild views, and years of public lies or errors (WMDs, COVID mistruths, etc.) erode trust.
    • “You can point to… all of these things where… you can certainly point to Covid… people say, ‘I don’t believe any of these authoritative figures anymore. I’m going to believe what I want to believe.’” (67:44, David French)
  • Sarah Isgur: The “fall of the generalist” makes trusting media/specialists harder; people believe their field is fine, but distrust all others.
    • “It’s much harder to have a conspiracy theory when everyone is a specialist.” (67:44, Sarah Isgur)

Notable Quote & Comic Relief

• Isgur: “Candace Owen, for instance, said that NASA is fake and gay. I don’t know how fake things can also be gay, but sure.” (57:54, Sarah Isgur)
• Goldberg: Tells a story about the Liberace Museum as a comic illustration of something being both fake and (stereotypically) "gay": “Liberace’s largest rhinestone, which is a fake gem, is both fake and gay.” (72:10, Jonah Goldberg)

Key Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment Description | |------------|---------------------| | 01:23–04:11 | SCOTUS Blog acquisition and media banter | | 04:11–10:19 | Ukraine ceasefire diplomacy, U.S. concessions | | 10:19–15:00 | Ukraine’s resilience, Russia’s limits, European shifts | | 15:00–19:49 | European realignment and historic analogies | | 22:08–34:38 | Theories of Trump’s foreign policy, psychology vs. ideology | | 34:38–46:09 | GOP internal shakeout, institutional loyalty and cowardice | | 48:08–57:54 | Pence vs. Vance, ideological evolution of VP role | | 57:54–72:13 | Conspiracy thinking: causes, spread, and implications |

Notable Quotes

• “He’s failed because he’s on Russia’s side and Russia wants more from the Trump administration.” (06:14, David French)
• “It is both the brand and the product.” (01:56, Sarah Isgur)
• “He wants people who pay obeisance to Trump and he wants people who allow him to look powerful.” (32:16, David French)
• “It’s not isolationism…It’s just Trump getting to do what he wants, where he wants…” (24:32, Jonah Goldberg)
• “He realized that very few people will engage, will bear any risk. This includes…Republican members of Congress and Republican senators for years.” (43:26, Steve Hayes)
• “Liberace’s largest rhinestone, which is a fake gem, is both fake and gay.” (72:10, Jonah Goldberg)

Tone and Closing

The panel is incisive and unsparing in their analysis—often wry, sometimes a little sardonic, but grounded in political observation and Occam’s razor realism rather than wishful thinking. They close by teasing a future episode on tectonic shifts within the Democratic Party.

For listeners seeking:

• Insights into Trump’s foreign policy mindset and Republican Party evolution
• How conspiracy thinking metastasizes on the American right
• The difference between public posturing and private belief among GOP elites
• What to expect from the new Trump–Vance administration dynamic

…this episode delivers a comprehensive, occasionally biting, perspective with a few dark laughs along the way.