The Dispatch Podcast – "What Comes Next for Trump’s Tariff Agenda?"
Date: February 24, 2026
Host: Steve Hayes
Guests: Mike Warren, John McCormick, Scott Lincicome (Cato Institute/Dispatch contributor)
Episode Overview
This episode delves into the Supreme Court’s landmark decision overturning the Trump administration’s tariff regime, imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The panel breaks down the legal, economic, and political ramifications, explores what comes next for the administration’s tariff strategy, and discusses the implications for small business owners, Congress, the 2026 midterms, and the broader separation of powers debate.
Key Discussion Points
1. The Supreme Court's Tariff Decision – What Happened?
[03:00 – 07:39]
- The Supreme Court issued a 6:3 decision overturning Trump’s justification for ~70% of tariffs imposed under IEEPA.
- Chief Justice Roberts wrote the opinion; interesting concurrences from Amy Coney Barrett and Neil Gorsuch; Kavanaugh, Alito, and Thomas dissented.
- The big legal issue: could the president impose these tariffs by invoking a national emergency, without congressional sign-off?
“The Supreme Court basically said, no, you can’t. And so seemingly they were sent back to the drawing board.”
– Mike Warren [04:36]
- The decision was widely expected:
“Relief, quite frankly... The decision itself, 6:3, was basically what everybody expected... it was a very clean ruling on statutory grounds.”
– Scott Lincicome [06:05]
- The Court sent refund issues back to the lower court.
2. Why Were the Tariffs Overturned?
[07:40 – 12:59]
- Trump used IEEPA—a law never before used this way and not even mentioned in the tariff statutes—to impose sweeping tariffs for reasons as personal as disliking a Canadian TV ad.
- Alternative, less freely-delegated tariff laws exist but were ignored.
- The tariffs increased average rates from 3% to 15-20% nearly overnight, with huge uncertainty for U.S. businesses.
“You’re talking about tariffs almost overnight went from around 3% on average to about 15 to 20%... a massive increase, something we haven’t had since World War II era. You also... had... a ton of uncertainty.”
– Scott Lincicome [09:09]
- Economic impacts included higher inflation (by nearly 1 percentage point), disrupted supply chains, reduced investment, and small but real drops in economic growth.
- Americans, not foreign exporters, bore most of the burden via higher prices.
3. Small Business Impact: Real-World Stories
[13:22 – 20:07]
- Small business owners like Dan Turner (Turner Hydraulics) faced devastating, unpredictable tariff bills—sometimes as much as 170% on a vital component.
- The specter of new or sudden tariffs paralyzed planning, especially for businesses reliant on seasonal sales.
“The uncertainty is just so hard to plan for. Q4, they're trying to plan for the end of the year, how much product they need. One person I talked to, she said most of my sales are holiday sales... She doesn't know.”
– John McCormick [16:26]
- Tariffs are paid at the border—before a product is sold—which uniquely hurts small businesses lacking cash reserves or legal teams.
4. Separation of Powers & Legal Takeaways
[18:08 – 24:50]
- Panelists stressed why granting the president unfettered power to tax is dangerous, regardless of tariff ideology.
“Even if you don’t care about tariffs... there’s something really wrong with the president being able to declare a national emergency and suddenly tax anything any way he wants in perpetuity.”
– Scott Lincicome [18:08]
- The Supreme Court, especially in Gorsuch’s concurrence, issued a thorough civics lesson: taxation and tariffs should be Congress’s domain, not the president’s whim.
- Post-ruling, the Trump administration vowed to find new legal justifications. Trump responded by threatening even higher tariffs and denouncing the Court.
5. What’s Next? Tariffs After IEEPA
[24:50 – 32:27]
- The administration is considering alternatives like Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows temporary (up to 15% for 150 days) tariffs during a “balance of payments” crisis—but such a crisis does not currently exist.
- Skepticism abounds about whether courts would overrule an administrative finding of a crisis, and about the legality of new moves.
“I do, however, question. I don’t know if the courts are going to be willing to second guess the Treasury Secretary about these issues.”
– Scott Lincicome [27:38]
- Even with the IEEPA tariffs knocked out, legally permissible tariffs could keep average rates historically high.
- Refunds for the $175 billion in illegally-collected tariffs are a legal and administrative mess, with the possibility of a prolonged fight in the courts over injunctions and repayment mechanisms.
6. The Refund Fiasco – Economic & Political Fallout
[32:27 – 40:44]
- Small businesses face immense administrative burdens, with no guarantee of refunds. Many will lose money fighting for what they're owed.
- Larger corporations can navigate or litigate for refunds, while small businesses may give up due to costs.
“There’s going to be potentially tens of thousands of small businesses that are just never going to get their money back because it’s going to cost them more to fight for their refund than the amount of the refund itself.”
– Scott Lincicome [38:12]
- Democrats are eager to highlight the chaos, the “hidden costs,” and the inequity of big firms benefitting while small businesses and consumers lose out.
- The panel expects this to be a major 2026 midterm issue.
7. 2026 Political Implications for Tariffs & Refunds
[40:44 – 46:18]
- Congressional Republicans mostly try to avoid the issue, aware that the policy is unpopular—even among their base of small business owners and consumers.
- Trump is targeting members of Congress who break with him on tariffs, but overall Republican resistance is muted—similar to Democrats’ unease over Biden’s inflationary policies.
- Democrats see tariffs as easy campaign material: “Trump lost, he owes all this money, he won’t give it back and it’s killing small business and it’s keeping prices high.”
– Scott Lincicome [45:34]
8. Memorable Quotes & Moments
-
Scott Lincicome on the Scope of the Problem:
“He likes tariffs. They're going to use whatever lever they can use to implement them. If we understand that, then... they’re going to abuse whatever statute it takes to fulfill the President’s wishes.” [30:42] -
Mike Warren on Congressional Cowardice:
“Republicans are not, they're hiding their head in the sand about all this tariff stuff because they know the reality.” [42:07]
9. Not Worth Your Time: First Concerts
[48:01 – End]
- The team shares personal stories of their first concerts; Scott Lincicome’s was George Michael’s 'Faith' tour, earning good-natured ribbing.
- Humorous exchanges tie the concert experience back to tariffs via joke about $18 beers and the cost impact ("Is it just the aluminum?" [49:32]).
Notable Quotes with Timestamps
-
On the effect of tariffs on small businesses:
“This is uniquely problematic for small businesses because... tariffs are paid at the border. So you haven't even sold your products yet, and you have to pay up and you have to put a bond down.”
– Scott Lincicome [19:03] -
On the Supreme Court’s civics lesson:
“...if these tariffs are so important, go get buy in from Congress. That really seemed to be the big message and sort of a heartening one...”
– Mike Warren [23:52] -
On potential Democrat messaging:
“Trump lost, he owes all this money, he won’t give it back and it’s killing small business and it’s keeping prices high. The end.”
– Scott Lincicome [45:34] -
On the 'double whammy' for small businesses:
“Small businesses get hit on the front end. ...But now on the refunds, they're also going to get hit...you're gonna probably have to file a lawsuit to get your money back.”
– Scott Lincicome [37:22]
Important Timestamps
- 02:28: Episode starts, introduction to the tariff topic
- 03:00-07:39: Legal overview and basics of the Supreme Court decision
- 07:40-12:59: Economic logic and impact of tariffs
- 13:22-20:07: Small businesses and real-world stories
- 24:50-29:28: Post-IEEPA legal strategies (Section 122, etc.)
- 32:27-40:44: Refund complications and uphill battle for small businesses
- 40:44-46:18: Political dynamics: how parties and Congress respond
- 48:01-End: Lighter segment, “Not Worth Your Time”: first concert stories
Episode Tone
Conversational, often humorous but with clear, deeply informed analysis. The panel blends economics, legal discussion, and political insight with accessible, real-life anecdotes, making a technical topic clear and engaging for listeners.
Summary
The episode is a rich discussion of the fallout from the Supreme Court halting Trump’s IEEPA tariff regime—what it reveals about executive power, the true cost to small businesses, and the coming legislative and electoral battles over tariffs and trade policy. The show closes with lighter personal stories, underscoring the relatable and approachable nature of The Dispatch roundtable.