Podcast
The Dividend Cafe
Hosted by The Bahnsen Group · EN
The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business. He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press), The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Post Hill Press), and Full-Time: Work and the Meaning of Life (Post Hill Press).
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Episodes
Newest firstAll episodes
Wednesday - June 17, 2026
Jun 1700:08:24Tap to summarizeDavid Bahnsen recaps a major market day following the first FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, where the Fed left rates unchanged but offered a notably brief statement with little forward guidance. The dot plot implied higher rates ahead, though Warsh declined to submit his own projection, reinforcing his opposition to forward guidance as a policy tool. In his first press conference, Warsh announced five task forces covering Fed communications, the balance sheet, data sources, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks, and emphasized focusing on what data says about the economy rather than predicting the Fed’s reaction. Markets sold off: the Dow swung from +280 to close -500, the S&P fell 1.25%, and the Nasdaq more than 1.25%, alongside a yield-curve flattening with short rates up far more than the 10-year. All 11 S&P sectors ended down. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:10 Fed Meeting Recap 01:14 Dot Plot and Guidance 01:55 Five Fed Task Forces 02:44 Reaction Function Critique 04:17 Market Selloff and Yields 05:29 Sector Performance Breakdown 06:02 Economic Data Check 06:26 Wrap Up and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcribe →Tuesday - June 16, 2026
Jun 1600:07:06Tap to summarizeDavid Bahnsen recaps Tuesday, June 16 market action with the Dow up 329 points (+0.64%) while the S&P fell over 0.5% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.15% as big tech/AI names sold off. Oil fell another 4.5% with WTI around $77, and the 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.437%. Financials rallied about 1.5% (helping the Dow), with strength also in some healthcare names, while energy mostly continued lower. Bahnsen argues Monday’s rally was less about Iran/Strait of Hormuz headlines and more a return to AI-tech momentum, which reversed Tuesday, framing the key market tension as AI momentum and valuations versus more fundamental sectors like REITs, healthcare, industrials, and staples. He also defines “first-year maximum drawdown” as the largest peak-to-trough decline in a stock’s first year post-IPO. 00:00 Market Recap Overview 00:38 Sector Rotation Snapshot 01:31 Bonds and Tech Divergence 02:11 Debunking the Iran Rally 03:04 AI Momentum vs Fundamentals 04:07 What Drawdown Means 05:02 Wrap Up and Contact Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcribe →Monday - June 15, 2026
Jun 1500:17:22Tap to summarizeToday's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4eITc6m David Bahnsen covers a broad “around the horn” Monday Dividend Cafe, highlighting extreme SpaceX IPO trading volume as evidence of IPO mania rather than price discovery. Markets rallied on weekend news of a forthcoming U.S.-Iran agreement and a planned signing, with the Dow up 469 points, the S&P up 1.65%, and the Nasdaq up over 3%; technology led while energy fell, small caps continued to outperform, and the 10-year yield held near 4.47%. He notes key unknowns in the Iran deal (Hormuz terms, enforcement, uranium, funds). Economic and policy updates include May industrial production up 0.1%, falling homebuilder sentiment (35), and housing affordability bill uncertainty. He previews the FOMC meeting and Kevin Warsh’s first press conference, cites the ECB’s first hike in over three years, discusses lower oil and gasoline prices, answers a question on dividend growth returns, and closes celebrating the Knicks’ first title in 53 years. 00:00 Welcome and Agenda 01:02 SpaceX IPO Mania 03:11 Markets Rally and Rotation 05:27 Iran Deal Unknowns 07:28 Economic and Policy Updates 09:13 Housing Sentiment Check 10:01 Central Banks and Fed Week 11:05 Oil and Gas Price Moves 11:50 Dividend Growth Q&A 13:37 Knicks Championship Moment 15:31 Closing Thanks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcribe →IPO Mania
Jun 1200:23:15Tap to summarizeToday's Post - https://bahnsen.co/49T1HsR David Bahnsen returns Dividend Cafe to its normal market focus and records Thursday to avoid being influenced by SpaceX’s anticipated IPO trading. He discloses he and some clients own SpaceX via an SPV and will be locked up for a year, after which he expects to sell. Using SpaceX’s planned $75B raise with a very small public float and huge valuation, plus prospective trillion-dollar IPOs from Anthropic and OpenAI, he argues public markets face unprecedented IPO valuation “indigestion.” He challenges the belief that IPOs are easy money driven by hype, limited supply, or forced index buying, citing history of large drawdowns after major IPOs and warning about post-lockup selling. He also notes private-company markups boosting reported earnings at mega-cap tech firms. His central message: IPO mania distracts from fundamentals and ignores risk-reward symmetry; “free money” doesn’t exist, and disciplined long-term investing matters. 00:00 Welcome Back Update 00:42 Why Record Early 02:18 SpaceX IPO Setup 05:00 Valuation Shockwave 08:00 IPO Pop Myth 09:38 Index Inclusion Hype 12:02 Hidden Earnings Impact 13:31 Ask Better Questions 17:16 Private To Public Shift 19:34 No Such Thing Free Money 20:47 Discipline And Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcribe →Thursday - June 11, 2026
Jun 1100:09:16Tap to summarizeBrian Szytel recaps a sharp market reversal after a broad sell-off tied to Iran war rhetoric gave way to gains on news of progress toward a deal, with the Dow up about 900 points, the S&P 500 up 1.7%, and the Nasdaq up 2.25%. He notes meaningfully lower interest rates (10-year down 9 bps to ~4.45%) and oil’s reduced sensitivity to Strait of Hormuz headlines as shipping reroutes and supply adjustments develop. Economic data included a hotter-than-expected headline May PPI (1.1%) but cooler core PPI (0.4%) alongside slightly worse initial jobless claims (229k). He highlights earnings growth concentration in energy (+117%) and technology (~60%) versus weak growth in consumer discretionary and financials, and responds to a college grad’s question by framing AI as a tool, emphasizing human trust and expressing optimism about job opportunities. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:23 Market Reversal Rally 01:38 Rates and Oil Calm 02:41 PPI Inflation Breakdown 03:52 Jobless Claims Update 04:05 Earnings Sector Split 05:48 AI and Entry Jobs 07:21 Closing Remarks 07:37 Disclosures and Disclaimer Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcribe →Wednesday - June 10, 2026
Jun 1000:07:59Tap to summarizeFrom The Bahnsen Group’s West Palm Beach office on June 10, Brian Szytel recaps a broad market sell-off driven by a continued rotation out of overvalued tech/semiconductors and later by news the U.S. would resume strikes on Iran, after an initially encouraging CPI report helped markets rebound mid-morning. The Dow fell 953 points (1.87%) to session lows, with the S&P 500 down 1.6% and Nasdaq down 2%. Headline CPI for May was 0.5% (4.2% year over year), while core CPI was cooler at 0.2% (2.9% year over year), which he views as encouraging amid strong growth and employment. He notes oil rose but markets seem more desensitized as supply chains adapt. He also answers that splitting between a dividend growth portfolio and the S&P 500 is not a hedge due to high correlation; true hedging comes from asset allocation across stocks, bonds, alternatives, real assets, and cash. 00:00 Market Selloff Recap 01:26 CPI Surprise and Fed Focus 03:13 Middle East Risks and Oil 03:50 Oil Market Adapts 04:29 Ask TBG Portfolio Hedging 05:08 Real Hedging Asset Allocation 06:00 Wrap Up and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcribe →Tuesday - June 9, 2026
Jun 900:07:08Tap to summarizeBrian Szytel reports from West Palm Beach on a volatile market stretch driven by stronger-than-expected jobs data, renewed tech weakness, and Middle East uncertainty. The Dow rose 86 points while the S&P 500 fell 0.25% and the Nasdaq dropped 1%, as equal-weight S&P outperformed cap-weighted by over 100 bps and the 10-year yield fell to 4.52%. He notes the tech sector’s nine-week 47% rally is seeing froth and sharp daily swings, alongside widening market breadth and sector rotation. Szytel urges investors to focus on fundamentals rather than popularity and dismisses warnings of simultaneous “cycle” peaks as largely unknowable and hindsight-driven. Economic updates include slightly softer NFIB optimism (still near historical average), a narrower April trade deficit to $55B, and existing home sales up 3.2% to about 4.2M. 00:00 Market Rollercoaster Recap 01:18 Tech Selloff And Rotation 02:16 Stick With Fundamentals 03:16 Ray Dalio Cycle Warnings 04:45 Quick Economic Calendar 05:39 Wrap Up And Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcribe →Monday - June 8, 2026
Jun 800:10:33Tap to summarizeToday's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4fE0HN7 Brian Szytel fills in for David on Dividend Cafe, recapping a mixed market day: the Dow fell about 80 points while the S&P 500 rose ~0.3% and Nasdaq ~0.8%, reflecting a rebound in tech after Friday’s sharp chip-led selloff following a nine-week, 47% tech rally. A much-stronger-than-expected May jobs report (172,000) pushed bond yields higher (10-year ~4.57%) and shifted Fed futures toward pricing possible rate hikes, with inflation still elevated and employment resilient, though labor participation remains low at 61.8% and small business hiring plans are weak. He reviews Middle East escalation and oil around $91, notes pullbacks in silver, gold, and Bitcoin, and argues their lack of cash-flow tether increases volatility. He highlights data-center capex and a bullish natural gas/pipeline thesis, and previews a coming episode on IPO mania and extreme revenue multiples. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:15 Market Recap and Tech Rebound 01:11 Rates Inflation and IPO Rules 02:51 Metals and Bitcoin Volatility 04:31 Middle East Tensions and Oil 05:21 Jobs Report and Fed Outlook 07:13 Energy Demand and Natural Gas Thesis 08:05 Wrap Up Knicks and Next Episode Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcribe →A Commencement Speech on Life for Graduates, and All of Us
Jun 500:23:23Tap to summarizeToday's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4g30PWo This special episode of The Dividend Cafe features David Bahnsen’s 2026 commencement address at Pacifica Christian High School of Orange County, introduced by his daughter and graduate Sadie. As a co-founder and trustee of the school, Bahnsen shares faith-informed life advice centered on the school’s emphasis on thinking well and living well, urging graduates to reject perpetual negativity, victimhood, and fatalism about the economy, AI, or personal trauma. He argues that people are not defined or owned by hardships and can choose optimism, responsibility, and joy, including avoiding “doom scrolling” and building healthy habits and relationships. He challenges parents and adults not to spread cynicism and calls graduates to be “builders” who pursue hope, peace, and purpose in Christ. 00:00 Welcome and Special Episode 01:05 Why This Commencement Speech 02:32 Faith Theme and Setup 03:00 Sadie Introduces Her Dad 05:17 Opening Remarks and Pacifica Vision 07:10 High School Nostalgia and Culture 09:03 Think Well and Live Well 10:46 Reject Victimhood and Negativity 12:14 Today Is the Best Day 14:12 Healing Beyond Trauma 16:08 Choose Optimism and Agency 18:30 Be Builders Not Destroyers 19:02 Charge to the Graduates 20:27 Love and Final Blessing 21:44 Disclosures and Disclaimer Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcribe →Thursday - June 4, 2026
Jun 400:08:23Tap to summarizeBrian Szytel recaps a market recovery day after a prior sell-off, with the Dow up 874 points, the S&P modestly higher, and the Nasdaq slightly lower due to a broad semiconductor decline led by a major custom AI chipmaker falling about 15% despite revenue growth of roughly 200% year over year, as guidance failed to meet lofty expectations. He puts the AI boom in context, citing about $1 trillion in annual hyperscaler and global AI capex—far exceeding the late-1990s fiber buildout pace—and notes additional spending needed in utilities to power data centers, emphasizing the U.S. lead in capital and scale. He warns that parabolic charts and IPOs priced at extreme revenue multiples require discipline, and argues this environment favors active management and diversified allocations beyond AI stocks. He also notes higher-than-expected initial jobless claims (225k vs. 215k) and a downward revision to U.S. productivity (0.3 from ~0.6). 00:00 Welcome and Market Recap 00:34 Semiconductor Selloff 01:55 AI Capex Boom 03:43 Valuations and Fundamentals 04:53 Active Management Case 06:04 Economic Calendar Check 06:27 Sign Off and Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
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