13. Carnival Games

Summary

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Podcast Summary: The Economics of Everyday Things — Carnival Games

Host: Zachary Crockett (Freakonomics Network)
Guests: Olivia Turner, Matthew Greisen, Elliot Simmons
Episode Number: 13
Original Release Date: February 12, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into the world behind carnival games: their design, economics, and the sometimes-shady practices that keep your odds of winning vanishingly slim. Host Zachary Crockett investigates who makes carnival games, how they're engineered, how the economics work for operators, and why people keep playing even as they almost always lose.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Carnival Game Supply Chain

• Redbone Products:

  • Family business in Pacific, Missouri, highlighted as a dominant carnival games manufacturer.
  • Olivia Turner, Redbone’s general manager, describes how they've supplied games to 21 countries and the generational nature of the industry.
    • "My dad has been in the business basically his whole life." (Olivia Turner, 02:46)
    • "He found a photograph of his great, great grandfather operating a carnival game. We were like, oh, my gosh, it's in our blood." (Olivia Turner, 03:46)

• Game Customization & Parts:

  • Extensive customization ensures games are challenging—e.g., ring toss rings and bottles are specially designed so that success is rare.
    • "There has to be the right specs at the bottom and the top and a lip around the top." (Olivia Turner, 04:57)
  • Redbone sells 40 games a year at $3,000–$30,000 each; frequent revenue comes from expendable components like balloons and balls.

Why Are Carnival Games So Hard?

• Designing for the House:

  • Games are intentionally crafted to minimize the chance of winning. For example, basketball hoops are made smaller than regulation size.
    • "Regulation rim is 18 inches...The basketball rims are a little bit compressed...they might be a 13 inch rim or 15 inch rim." (Olivia Turner, 05:25)

• Testing the Odds:

  • Matthew Greisen, an engineer and carnival game enthusiast, shares his field research on the true odds:
    • "I stood at a carnival for four hours...316 shots...only one in 40 shots went in." (Matthew Greisen, 07:22)
    • For ring toss, odds are one in 700.
  • Operators aren't concerned with player’s odds, but with "throwing stock"—how much they pay out in prizes for every dollar taken in.
    • "They look at it like, I don't really care what your odds are of winning. I care about what my odds are of losing." (Matthew Greisen, 08:15)

Carnival Operators: Practice and Ethics

• Protecting Margins:

  • Running a booth is expensive: operators pay rent, labor, and prizes, and must make a profit.
    • "They have to pay for the prizes, and they have to make a profit on top of that." (Matthew Greisen, 13:32)
  • One booth’s daily rent might be $1,500—requiring hundreds of games at $5 a play just to break even.

• Controlling Wins:

  • Insider perspective from Elliot Simmons, former carnie, describing strict limits on prizes and manipulation:

    • "One of the first things they told me was don't let the boss man see anyone walking around the park with anything that's not like the little plushies." (Elliot Simmons, 12:07)
    • Sometimes, games are outright rigged (“gaffed”) so nobody can win.
    • “If someone does get it in, tell them that they were standing too close...It just sucks when you see some kids just genuinely enjoying their day and super happy when they get it in. And then you crush their dreams.” (Elliot Simmons, 14:59)

  • Use of visual tricks—having an employee's child parade around with a large prize to draw in more players.

    • "That worked so well. Whenever he was at the park carrying that around, we had just tons and tons of people come over lining up...knowing damn well none of them were going to win." (Elliot Simmons, 14:20)

Are All Carnival Operators Shady?

• Distinguishing Scams from Standards:

  • While some operators rig games, most are legitimate small businesspeople subject to regulation.

    • "By and large, they're good small business people...They want to run the grifters off the midway." (Matthew Greisen, 15:49)

  • Licensing and state inspections regulate fairness, assures Olivia Turner:

    • "There is not one game that we sell that cannot be won...they would get in huge trouble [if games were unwinnable]." (Olivia Turner, 16:15)

  • Players are advised to check games before playing—feel the milk bottles, check if they're weighted.

    • "There are no stupid questions. It's your money." (Matthew Greisen, 16:39)

Why Play If the Odds Are Bad?

• The Trophy Effect:

  • Despite the odds, prizes serve as emotional trophies, especially for kids and teens.
    • "It's a piece of carpeting with a couple of little eyes stuck on it, but it's a trophy." (Matthew Greisen, 17:09)

• Infamous Big Losers:

  • In 2013, a man spent $2,600 at a carnival for a life-sized plush banana—embodying the irrational drive to win.

• Guaranteed-Win Games:

  • "Hanky pank" games where everyone wins something, like the rubber duck pond, but prizes are still worth far less than the price to play.

• Philosophy of Losing:

  • "The carnival is a metaphor for life. And in life, well, you don't always win." (Zachary Crockett, 18:28)
  • Or more bluntly: "If it's too good to be true, it is. And don't get too excited when you think you won the big prize, because life's gonna kick you in the ass." (Elliot Simmons, 18:45)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Everyone deserves to be connected. That’s why T Mobile and US Cellular are joining forces.” (Elliot Simmons, 00:00)
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• "You have to aim for the center or the sweet spot to get it exactly in." (Olivia Turner, 05:25)

• "I would stand there with a mechanical clicker and see how many people played and what the odds were that they would win it." (Matthew Greisen, 06:45)

• "If a game is gaffed, it means that it's essentially rigged. It's to the point where nobody can win it." (Matthew Greisen, 15:33)

• "It made it an exciting day for me, you know what I mean?" (Elliot Simmons, 19:17)

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Timestamps of Major Segments

• 01:51 — Introduction to the emotional allure (and frustration) of carnival games
• 02:46 — History and operation of Redbone Products, family business
• 04:57 — The science and design of game pieces
• 05:25 — Basketball hoops and other rigged specs
• 06:26 — Data and real-world odds (Matthew Greisen's research)
• 08:08 — The economics of “throwing stock”
• 11:35 — Elliot Simmons’ insider experience working carnival games
• 12:34 — Economics of prizes and costs for operators
• 14:00 — Attracting players and visual scams
• 14:51 — Game manipulation and operator tricks
• 15:33 — “Gaffed” games and industry reputation
• 16:15 — Legal requirements for carnival game fairness
• 16:39 — Consumer tips for checking fairness
• 17:09 — The emotional value of carnival trophies
• 18:28 — Final reflections: why we play, even when we know we’ll lose

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Episode Tone & Takeaway

This episode blends wry humor, nostalgia, and a touch of skepticism. It’s both a celebration and exposé—highlighting the romance and the reality behind those tempting, frustrating booths on the fairway. You learn just enough to avoid being totally taken, but perhaps not enough to keep you from handing over one more five for a shot at that giant banana.

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Transcript

[Elliot Simmons]

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[Elliot Simmons]

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[Zachary Crockett]

That thing do that, do that, do that with Acrobat learn [e-mail] do that with Acrobat. When you're at the fair, the world is a rosier place. The sun is shining and the air is filled with the smell of corn dogs and funnel cake. There's music, laughter, screams of delight coming from the rides. It seems like you just can't lose. And then you decide to play a carnival game. There's something about these games that disarms our rational brains. We're willing to spend 10, 20, $30 for a shot at winning a giant stuffed animal that we don't even really want.

[Elliot Simmons]

Everyone, like 90% of people came there with a lot of hope and they left, you know, just super pissed. The boss literally said to me, don't give away any of the big ones. And they would make the rules even tighter. It was a mafia.

[Zachary Crockett]

For the Freakonomics Radio network. This is the economics of everyday things. I'm Zachary Crockett. Today, carnival games. To understand carnival games, you have to start with the people who manufacture them. In the small town of Pacific, Missouri, you'll find a giant warehouse full of balloons, milk jugs, rubber ducks and darts. It belongs to a family owned business called Redbone Products. And if you've played a carnival game at a fair or an amusement park in recent years, the odds are pretty good that it came from them.

[Olivia Turner]

My dad has been in the business basically his whole life.

[Zachary Crockett]

Olivia Turner is the company's general manager. Her dad founded redbone back in 1996, and like many people in the business, he worked his way up from the bottom of the amusement hierarchy.

[Olivia Turner]

He started working at Six Flags in Dallas when he was 15 and when they were opening the park here in St. Louis. In 1971, they asked a group of guys if they wanted to come open the park and be managers. And he said, yeah, sure.

[Zachary Crockett]

Olivia's dad, Steve Turner, eventually joined a company that had been supplying carnivals with games since the 1930s. When the owner died, Steve took over. Turns out that's a pretty typical story in the carnival game business. It's a tight knit group of suppliers. Everybody knows each other, and many of them come from families that have been in the trade for generations.

[Olivia Turner]

My dad was doing some ancestry work, and he found a photograph of his great, great grandfather operating a carnival game. We were like, oh, my gosh, it's in our blood.

[Zachary Crockett]

Today, Redbones supplies games and all the pieces and parts that go into those games to carnival operators in 21 different countries.

[Olivia Turner]

So we have got ring toss catrack, which is the game where you throw the baseball at the clown balloon.

[Zachary Crockett]

Pop.

[Olivia Turner]

Basketball is always huge. Everyone needs a basketball game.

[Zachary Crockett]

The company makes most of its revenue from the game. Parts that need to be constantly replaced.

[Olivia Turner]

The biggest seller we have is balloons. I mean, you would be shocked how many balloons we go through. Then you have balls and ducks and stuff like that. And carnivals are ordering those weekly as well because stuff gets lost, stuff gets dirty.

[Zachary Crockett]

One thing you might notice about carnival games is that most of those bits and pieces have custom specifications. Take the ring toss game, where a player throws a plastic ring onto a glass bottle.

[Olivia Turner]

While you may look at it and say, oh, that's just a glass bottle. We look at it and see something completely different. There has to be the right specs at the bottom and the top and a lip around the top. And, you know, what is that ring made out of? Is it going to make the right sound when it hits the bottle to att?

[Zachary Crockett]

One important part of that design process is making sure the odds are in the carnival operator's favor. Those basketball hoops, there's a reason that your shots off the backboard never go in.

[Olivia Turner]

They're not regulation rims. Regulation rim is 18 inches. Those are huge. You would have way too many winners. So the basketball rims are a little bit compressed or smaller. They might be a 13 inch rim or 15 inch rim or a 10 and a half. You have to aim for the center or the sweet spot to get it exactly in.

[Zachary Crockett]

Carnival operators pay top dollar for this kind of ingenuity. Redbones games cost from $3,000 up to $30,000 a piece, and Turner says she sells around 40 of them a year, either directly to amusement parks or to smaller Companies that own their own games and contract with carnivals and fairs. Once those games are set up on the midway, that stretch of fairground with all the vendors, it's up to the public to decide where to hand over their money. And some of those carnival goers take this task very seriously.

[Matthew Greisen]

I had always been fascinated with carnival games. Even as a kid. I always, you know, had that envy of seeing somebody walking down the midway with a big. And wondering how they did it.

[Zachary Crockett]

That's Matthew Grisen. He's a retired journalist and an engineer, and you could say he has a bit of an obsession.

[Matthew Greisen]

There was a carnival in downtown Detroit, and I went down there and saw this game called Cover the Spot. It had five metal discs, and the solution is to try to drop those discs onto a painted spot so that you can't see any color. I would stand there with a mechanical clicker and see how many people played and what the odds were that they would win it. I'd watch it being played, and I saw, yep, there's a geometric solution to this. So then I went back home and I built a scale model of the game.

[Zachary Crockett]

Over several years, Graizon collected data on more than 40 carnival games all over Michigan and Ohio. He compiled his findings in a book called Carnival Secrets. In one instance, he stood at a carnival for four hours and observed 316 shots on a redbone basketball game. He found that only one in 40 shots went in. That's better than ring toss, where the odds of winning are around one in 700 shots. But greisen says carnival workers aren't too preoccupied with your odds.

[Matthew Greisen]

If you ask, well, how hard is this game to win? What are my odds? Is it 1 in 20 or 1 in 50? Nakarny will look puzzled because he or she doesn't think that way. They think in terms of what they.

[Zachary Crockett]

Call throwing stock, which means how much they pay out in prizes for every dollar they take in.

[Matthew Greisen]

They look at it like, I don't really care what your odds are of winning. I care about what my odds are of losing.

[Zachary Crockett]

And what those odds are is up to them.

[Matthew Greisen]

If you find that you're throwing too much stock, if you're up to 50%, then you're probably saying, well, I have to move the glass plates further apart or I've got to change the angle on my wiffleboard.

[Zachary Crockett]

Carnival operators will also do everything they can to protect against people like Gryzen, who know all the tricks.

[Matthew Greisen]

Yeah, we're called sharpies. A number of them have signs on the side of the joint that says, you know, one prize per day or something like that, so that way you can't go in and clean them out.

[Zachary Crockett]

So they're like professional teddy bear winners out there at carnivals.

[Matthew Greisen]

There's a few, there's a few.

[Zachary Crockett]

Grison doesn't really have a problem with any of this. He says game operators have to make a living somehow, but sometimes they take it a little too far. That's coming up. The Economics of Everyday Things is sponsored by crowdstreet. You're the kind of person who reads the fine print, who likes to make your own calls, who's built a life, not to mention a career, by thinking independently. So why shouldn't you invest that way too? Crowdstreet is built for self directed investors who want direct access to private market opportunities like private equity, private credit and real estate. Vetted offerings, transparent data and clear diligence summaries help you make confident, informed choices. Because independence doesn't stop at your desk or your business or your weekend projects, it should extend to your investments too. Invest the way you live independently. Learn [e-mail].

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[Elliot Simmons]

Step right up everyone to the carnival game alley where the prizes are big and the fun is endless. That was one I would do all the time. People would come right on over or I'd do like a really strange dance, you know what I mean? Red Bulls and five hour Energies. That was my go to.

[Zachary Crockett]

That's Elliot Simmons. He worked at the games at a carnival in Illinois for three summers. From day one, he was given strict instructions to regulate the number and size of the prizes he awarded at any cost.

[Elliot Simmons]

One of the first things they told me was don't let the boss man see anyone walking around the park with anything that's not like the little plushies, you know. At the end of every day, we would turn our money in, count how many prizes are on the wall, go in the back, and count how many prizes were in the tubs. If those numbers were off, they would get really suspicious.

[Zachary Crockett]

Now, the prizes themselves, they're not especially precious. Game operators might pay around $1 for an inflatable guitar or a small stuffed animal. Even the biggest plush toys, which are rarely ever given away, top out at around 60 bucks. And some of them are truly bizarre.

[Elliot Simmons]

They had one of those penguins with the bloodshot eyes. You know, it's like the stoned penguin. And I'm like, this is interesting for a kid's prize, but okay.

[Zachary Crockett]

Then you have the infamous live prizes, which can be an inventory nightmare.

[Elliot Simmons]

We had a game where you would win a goldfish, they would just leave the fish there. One morning I came in and literally, like, 50 dead fish.

[Zachary Crockett]

If you operate carnival games, you've got to keep your costs down because as Matthew Greisen says, your margins are pretty tight.

[Matthew Greisen]

They've got to pay privilege, which is rent on the midway. They have to pay labor, they have to pay utilities, They've got to pay transportation. They have to pay for the prizes, and they have to make a profit on top of that.

[Zachary Crockett]

The rent alone might be $1,500 per day. At $5 per play, it would take a game operator 300 games just to earn back that one cost. And that's assuming everything goes smoothly.

[Matthew Greisen]

It's a seasonal business, too. You're only open, you know, roughly between April and October, and it's weather dependent. If you have some rainy days, you could come up with some big losses.

[Zachary Crockett]

At the park where Simmons worked, operators used tricks to attract as many customers as possible to the games.

[Elliot Simmons]

The owner's son, he would just give him one of the big prizes to just walk around the park with, like, advertisement, you know, to make people be like, oh, wow, so that kid won. Let's go. And that worked so well. That worked so well. Whenever he was at the park carrying that around, we had just tons and tons of people come over lining up for that game that I was working, knowing damn well none of them were going to win. And if I did let them win, I'd probably be fired.

[Zachary Crockett]

That sometimes meant outright ripping them off.

[Elliot Simmons]

The first game I ran was the milk toss game. You know what I'm talking about. It's like that 10 gallon milk carton, and you have to throw a softball in there.

[Zachary Crockett]

Oh, yeah, I've seen those.

[Elliot Simmons]

I came in one day and the owner of the park was in the back hammering the rim to make it a bit wonky. He would say, if someone does get it in, tell them that they were standing too close. So we had these back pocket reasons at all times why they didn't win if they actually did. It just sucks when you see some kids just genuinely enjoying their day and super happy when they get it in. And then you crush their dreams.

[Zachary Crockett]

Carnival workers have names for this kind of thing.

[Matthew Greisen]

If a game is gaffed, it means that it's essentially rigged. It's to the point where nobody can win it.

[Zachary Crockett]

But Greisen says these exceptionally unscrupulous operators are outliers and that most games are run in good faith.

[Matthew Greisen]

By and large, they're good small business people. These carnival operators are investing tens, if not hundreds of thousands of dollars in their games, and they want to run the grifters off the midway. They don't like it. It gives the carnival a bad reputation.

[Zachary Crockett]

And just because a game is hard to win doesn't mean it's unfair. Part of Olivia Turner's job at Redbone is to be sure of that.

[Olivia Turner]

There is not one game that we sell that cannot be won. These carnivals and amusement parks are under very strict rules from the states that they're in. So they get checked and monitored often. And if they're not following the rules, then they would get in huge trouble.

[Zachary Crockett]

Gryzen has a simple trick to protect against renegade operators.

[Matthew Greisen]

Before you take a softball and try to knock down three metal milk bottles, you have every right to say to the carnie, I want to see those. I want to hold them. Are they full of lead to the point where I can't even push them over? There are no stupid questions. It's your money.

[Zachary Crockett]

One question remains. Why even take the chance? Why spend 20 bucks to win a cheap toy in the first place?

[Matthew Greisen]

It's a piece of carpeting with a couple of little eyes stuck on it, but it's a trophy. And for a teenage guy that wants to impress his date, if he's got one of these under his arm or she's got one under her arm. You know, that's part of how this all works.

[Zachary Crockett]

People have lost astronomical sums of money pursuing these trophies. In 2013, for instance, a man spent $2,600, his entire life savings attempting to toss a softball into a bucket at a New Hampshire carnival. In the end, all it got him was a human sized banana with dreadlocks. Now, to be fair, there are carnival games where the player, quote unquote, wins on every try. Like Duck Pond, where you pick a rubber duck with a fishing pole and get whatever prize is written on the bottom. Carnival workers call them hanky panks, and they're mostly geared toward young kids. The prizes are usually worth less than 20% of the price of one turn. But to Graizon, the carnival is a metaphor for life. And in life, well, you don't always win.

[Matthew Greisen]

There's something fun about a bunch of lights and noise, eating food that's no good for you, trying out a game and just having some fun.

[Zachary Crockett]

Elliot Simmons is a little less romantic about it.

[Elliot Simmons]

If it's too good to be true, it is. You know what I mean? And don't get too excited when you think you won the big prize, because life's gonna kick you in the ass.

[Zachary Crockett]

For the economics of everyday things, I'm Zachary Crockett. This episode was produced by Sarah Lilly and mixed by Jeremy Johnston. We had additional help from Eleanor Osborne and Lyric Bowd.

[Elliot Simmons]

Kids would cry. Parents would yell at me. They would try to cheat. It would really get people worked up. It made it an exciting day for me, you know what I mean?

[Zachary Crockett]

The Freakonomics Radio Network the Hidden side of everything.

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