Podcast Summary: The Economics of Everyday Things — Carnival Games

Host: Zachary Crockett (Freakonomics Network)
Guests: Olivia Turner, Matthew Greisen, Elliot Simmons
Episode Number: 13
Original Release Date: February 12, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the world behind carnival games: their design, economics, and the sometimes-shady practices that keep your odds of winning vanishingly slim. Host Zachary Crockett investigates who makes carnival games, how they're engineered, how the economics work for operators, and why people keep playing even as they almost always lose.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Carnival Game Supply Chain

• Redbone Products:

  • Family business in Pacific, Missouri, highlighted as a dominant carnival games manufacturer.
  • Olivia Turner, Redbone’s general manager, describes how they've supplied games to 21 countries and the generational nature of the industry.
    • "My dad has been in the business basically his whole life." (Olivia Turner, 02:46)
    • "He found a photograph of his great, great grandfather operating a carnival game. We were like, oh, my gosh, it's in our blood." (Olivia Turner, 03:46)

• Game Customization & Parts:

  • Extensive customization ensures games are challenging—e.g., ring toss rings and bottles are specially designed so that success is rare.
    • "There has to be the right specs at the bottom and the top and a lip around the top." (Olivia Turner, 04:57)
  • Redbone sells 40 games a year at $3,000–$30,000 each; frequent revenue comes from expendable components like balloons and balls.

Why Are Carnival Games So Hard?

• Designing for the House:

  • Games are intentionally crafted to minimize the chance of winning. For example, basketball hoops are made smaller than regulation size.
    • "Regulation rim is 18 inches...The basketball rims are a little bit compressed...they might be a 13 inch rim or 15 inch rim." (Olivia Turner, 05:25)

• Testing the Odds:

  • Matthew Greisen, an engineer and carnival game enthusiast, shares his field research on the true odds:
    • "I stood at a carnival for four hours...316 shots...only one in 40 shots went in." (Matthew Greisen, 07:22)
    • For ring toss, odds are one in 700.
  • Operators aren't concerned with player’s odds, but with "throwing stock"—how much they pay out in prizes for every dollar taken in.
    • "They look at it like, I don't really care what your odds are of winning. I care about what my odds are of losing." (Matthew Greisen, 08:15)

Carnival Operators: Practice and Ethics

• Protecting Margins:

  • Running a booth is expensive: operators pay rent, labor, and prizes, and must make a profit.
    • "They have to pay for the prizes, and they have to make a profit on top of that." (Matthew Greisen, 13:32)
  • One booth’s daily rent might be $1,500—requiring hundreds of games at $5 a play just to break even.

• Controlling Wins:

  • Insider perspective from Elliot Simmons, former carnie, describing strict limits on prizes and manipulation:

    • "One of the first things they told me was don't let the boss man see anyone walking around the park with anything that's not like the little plushies." (Elliot Simmons, 12:07)
    • Sometimes, games are outright rigged (“gaffed”) so nobody can win.
    • “If someone does get it in, tell them that they were standing too close...It just sucks when you see some kids just genuinely enjoying their day and super happy when they get it in. And then you crush their dreams.” (Elliot Simmons, 14:59)

  • Use of visual tricks—having an employee's child parade around with a large prize to draw in more players.

    • "That worked so well. Whenever he was at the park carrying that around, we had just tons and tons of people come over lining up...knowing damn well none of them were going to win." (Elliot Simmons, 14:20)

Are All Carnival Operators Shady?

• Distinguishing Scams from Standards:

  • While some operators rig games, most are legitimate small businesspeople subject to regulation.

    • "By and large, they're good small business people...They want to run the grifters off the midway." (Matthew Greisen, 15:49)

  • Licensing and state inspections regulate fairness, assures Olivia Turner:

    • "There is not one game that we sell that cannot be won...they would get in huge trouble [if games were unwinnable]." (Olivia Turner, 16:15)

  • Players are advised to check games before playing—feel the milk bottles, check if they're weighted.

    • "There are no stupid questions. It's your money." (Matthew Greisen, 16:39)

Why Play If the Odds Are Bad?

• The Trophy Effect:

  • Despite the odds, prizes serve as emotional trophies, especially for kids and teens.
    • "It's a piece of carpeting with a couple of little eyes stuck on it, but it's a trophy." (Matthew Greisen, 17:09)

• Infamous Big Losers:

  • In 2013, a man spent $2,600 at a carnival for a life-sized plush banana—embodying the irrational drive to win.

• Guaranteed-Win Games:

  • "Hanky pank" games where everyone wins something, like the rubber duck pond, but prizes are still worth far less than the price to play.

• Philosophy of Losing:

  • "The carnival is a metaphor for life. And in life, well, you don't always win." (Zachary Crockett, 18:28)
  • Or more bluntly: "If it's too good to be true, it is. And don't get too excited when you think you won the big prize, because life's gonna kick you in the ass." (Elliot Simmons, 18:45)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Everyone deserves to be connected. That’s why T Mobile and US Cellular are joining forces.” (Elliot Simmons, 00:00)
  (Not content-related; ad)

• "You have to aim for the center or the sweet spot to get it exactly in." (Olivia Turner, 05:25)

• "I would stand there with a mechanical clicker and see how many people played and what the odds were that they would win it." (Matthew Greisen, 06:45)

• "If a game is gaffed, it means that it's essentially rigged. It's to the point where nobody can win it." (Matthew Greisen, 15:33)

• "It made it an exciting day for me, you know what I mean?" (Elliot Simmons, 19:17)

Timestamps of Major Segments

• 01:51 — Introduction to the emotional allure (and frustration) of carnival games
• 02:46 — History and operation of Redbone Products, family business
• 04:57 — The science and design of game pieces
• 05:25 — Basketball hoops and other rigged specs
• 06:26 — Data and real-world odds (Matthew Greisen's research)
• 08:08 — The economics of “throwing stock”
• 11:35 — Elliot Simmons’ insider experience working carnival games
• 12:34 — Economics of prizes and costs for operators
• 14:00 — Attracting players and visual scams
• 14:51 — Game manipulation and operator tricks
• 15:33 — “Gaffed” games and industry reputation
• 16:15 — Legal requirements for carnival game fairness
• 16:39 — Consumer tips for checking fairness
• 17:09 — The emotional value of carnival trophies
• 18:28 — Final reflections: why we play, even when we know we’ll lose

Episode Tone & Takeaway

This episode blends wry humor, nostalgia, and a touch of skepticism. It’s both a celebration and exposé—highlighting the romance and the reality behind those tempting, frustrating booths on the fairway. You learn just enough to avoid being totally taken, but perhaps not enough to keep you from handing over one more five for a shot at that giant banana.