Podcast Summary: "Why Iran Believes It Has the Upper Hand"

The Ezra Klein Show | New York Times Opinion
Date: April 3, 2026
Host: Ezra Klein
Guest: Suzanne Maloney, Vice President and Director, Brookings Institution’s Foreign Policy Program

Episode Overview

This episode examines the evolving U.S.-Iran conflict, focusing on why the Iranian regime believes it now has the upper hand against the United States and its allies. Ezra Klein interviews Suzanne Maloney, a leading Iran expert, to unpack the real balance of power, the consequences of Trump administration strategy, and what both sides are learning as the situation unfolds. The episode explores the strategic chokehold Iran has exerted by closing the Strait of Hormuz, the limits of U.S. military options, and the ramifications for future diplomacy, regional stability, and the global order.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Chaotic State of U.S. Messaging and Policy

• Ezra Klein (01:00): Notes the confusion in President Trump’s daily messaging, which swings between imminent victory and escalation, as well as contradictory statements about U.S. objectives and the fate of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Suzanne Maloney (04:33): Emphasizes the gap between Trump’s rhetoric and actions, a pattern the Iranians have learned to anticipate.

2. The Negotiation Battlefield

• Trump’s 15-Point Peace Plan (05:16): U.S. demands include a permanent halt to Iran’s nuclear activities, end of proxy support, and ballistic missile program dismantling.
• Iran’s Response (06:17): Iran rejects negotiations, viewing itself as holding the upper hand due to its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and deep suspicion born from both current military action and past negotiation precedents.

3. Iran’s Leverage: Seizing the Strait of Hormuz

• Maloney (07:29): "They believe they have the upper hand precisely because they were able to seize control of the Strait of Hormuz... What the Iranians did in the first days of the war was to strike at ships... and effectively persuade insurers and shipping companies and oil companies to avoid the Gulf unless they had some kind of assurance from the Iranians that they could pass."
• Only a handful of tankers are moving through the Strait, causing global oil price spikes, with potentially catastrophic economic consequences.

4. Why Iran Is Confident It Can Wait

• Maloney (09:07): Iran is prepared for hardship, betting that rising global economic pain will pressure the U.S. and its allies to seek an end to the crisis before Iran blinks.

5. The Economics—and Global Fallout—of a Prolonged Crisis

• Maloney (11:20): Draws a parallel between the Strait closure and the Covid pandemic’s impact on supply chains: "Americans are still effectively paying the price at the gas pump... but as prices normalize over time, as the disruption is priced in, we will be seeing not just 4 and 5 and $6 prices for gasoline at the pump, but much, much higher."
• Impacts extend to food, chips, and technology sectors.

Memorable Quote:

Maloney (12:50):
"Prime Minister Modi in India compared this to effectively, Covid and the pandemic and the impact on global supply chains. I think that that is a very apt comparison."

6. Asymmetries, Miscalculations, and Regime Resilience

• Despite heavy Iranian losses—including the Supreme Leader’s death—the regime survives, becoming more hardline and militarized.
• Maloney (13:35): "If regime change was one of the goals…Iranians now believe that they have been able to survive. And that the regime itself, despite having been grievously wounded, will remain intact."

7. Competing Peace Plans & Iran’s Endgame

• Iran’s 5-Point Plan (15:19): Includes compensation for losses, ongoing control (and monetization) of the Strait, and eased sanctions.
• Stalemate: The Iranian position needs little active negotiation—by controlling the Strait, they simply set the new facts on the ground.
• Maloney (17:25): "They do want reparations... but the international community does not want to see a toll booth put at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz."

8. The Trump Administration’s Strategic Ambiguity

• Trump signals abandonment of regional security leadership, telling allies to "secure the Strait themselves."
• Klein (19:15): "What would it mean for Trump to simply say, we're done, we have declared victory, we are not worrying about the strait?"

9. The Limits of Military Solutions

• Maloney (25:07): Highlights the extraordinary difficulty, casualties, and scale necessary to militarily “reopen” the Strait, and undermines the plausibility of effective regime change or occupation by U.S. troops.
• Klein (28:27): "So long as the Iranian regime is in place, eventually they will take it back... The idea that we are just going to be stationed in Iran...doesn't seem like a plausible long term equilibrium to me."

10. Lessons Learned by Iran—and the Region

• Maloney (45:17): "They've learned a lot of very dangerous lessons... that time can be on their side, they can actually seize the strait, and then they have the upper hand."
• Iran has discovered new ways to project asymmetric power—targeting regional infrastructure, menacing Gulf economies, and gaining deterrence.

11. Israel’s Aims and “Mowing the Lawn”

• Israel’s extensive planning and strikes may have achieved tactical but not strategic goals. The regime remains; nuclear/deterrence capability is battered but not eliminated.
• Maloney (50:04): "I don't think mowing the lawn is a strategy that is going to keep Israel safe in the future. But I think that they don't see better options at this point in time."

12. The Risk of New and Radically Hardened Adversaries

• Klein draws a parallel to U.S. actions spawning Hezbollah, Al Qaeda, and ISIS; cautions that eliminating old regimes often brings more radical, less rational replacements.
• Maloney (54:12): "It's a very real possibility. We know the Iranians have had relationships with terror networks all around the world…"

13. The Geopolitical Endgame: Leadership Shifts

• With the U.S. politically and militarily bogged down, global powers such as China and Pakistan move to fill the diplomatic vacuum.
• Maloney (56:59): "I think however this ends, it is a critical juncture. It is the end of American global leadership."

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "They believe they have the upper hand precisely because they were able to seize control of the Strait of Hormuz..."
  — Suzanne Maloney (07:29)

• "We've never had a prolonged closure of the Strait... Markets haven't fully priced in the potential impact at this point in time..."
  — Suzanne Maloney (11:20)

• "If regime change was one of the goals of the war from the Trump administration... Iranians now believe that they have been able to survive."
  — Suzanne Maloney (13:35)

• "It feels like a Suez moment in some respects."
  — Suzanne Maloney (58:57)
  [Referring to a historic turning point signaling the end of unquestioned American—and Western—leadership]

• "You cannot trust the negotiations... Your only true safety is your deterrence capability to impose tremendous pain on the global economy..."
  — Ezra Klein (60:04)
  (Reflecting on what Iran might have learned from repeated U.S. policy reversals and military strikes)

• "At this point in time, it appears as though they may in fact achieve those aims of being stronger at the end of this war, even if the economy's been battered..."
  — Suzanne Maloney (61:27)

Important Segment Timestamps

• Negotiation Confusion & U.S. Messaging: 01:00 – 06:15
• Iran Seizes the Strait of Hormuz: 07:27 – 09:07
• Global Economic Fallout: 10:02 – 12:50
• Regime Survival and Transformation: 13:35 – 16:00
• Iran’s “Toll Booth” Strategy: 16:30 – 18:59
• Trump’s Shift: Abandoning the Strait: 19:15 – 22:03
• Viability of Military Options: 24:40 – 29:44
• Why the Regime Survived; Leadership Transition: 31:02 – 36:20
• What Iran Is Learning and Will Become: 44:32 – 47:05
• Israel’s Calculus & “Mowing the Lawn”: 47:43 – 51:10
• Second Front: Israel and Lebanon: 51:43 – 54:12
• Geopolitical Tides: U.S. Power and China’s Role: 56:02 – 60:04
• Lasting Strategic Consequences: 58:10 – End

Three Book Recommendations (62:07)

1. The Twilight War by David Crist
   A Pentagon historian’s account of the secret U.S.-Iran conflict.

2. American Hostages in Iran: The Conduct of a Crisis edited by Warren Christopher
   Diplomatic, military, and financial perspectives on the 1979 hostage crisis.

3. Democracy in Iran: Why It Failed and How It Might Succeed by Misagh Parsa
   An Iranian scholar’s analysis of the country’s political trajectory.

Final Assessment

Why Iran Believes It Has the Upper Hand offers a sobering, candid assessment of the new balance of power in the Middle East. Far from achieving its maximal objectives, U.S. policy may have left Iran’s regime battered but more dangerous, better able to exert leverage, and less inclined to trust negotiations. The episode illustrates how strategic overreach, miscalculation, and short-term thinking can have profound, long-term consequences for U.S. leadership, global stability, and the deterrence calculus of rivals—raising uncomfortable questions about what, if anything, could still be called “victory.”