Summary of "A New Middle East?" Episode of The Ezra Klein Show

Release Date: June 25, 2025
Host: Ezra Klein
Guest: Aaron David Miller, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Author

Introduction

In the episode titled "A New Middle East?" hosted by Ezra Klein, the conversation delves deep into the tumultuous developments in the Middle East, focusing particularly on the recent actions taken by Israel against Iran's nuclear program. Ezra welcomes Aaron David Miller, a seasoned expert in Middle Eastern diplomacy, to unpack the implications of these events for the region and U.S. foreign policy.

Recent Escalations in the Middle East

The episode opens with a brief overview of the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, marked by Israel's recent strikes on Iranian nuclear sites despite previous U.S. administrations' reluctance to support such actions.

Notable Quote:

"It's mission accomplished for Prime Minister Benjamin." — Ezra Klein [00:48]

Israel’s Strike on Iranian Nuclear Sites

Aaron David Miller discusses the historical context of U.S.-Israel relations concerning Iran's nuclear ambitions. He highlights that Israel's request for U.S. support in bombing Iranian nuclear facilities has been a recurring theme, consistently rebuffed by successive U.S. presidents until recently.

Notable Quote:

"The core components of Iran's nuclear program are largely intact and that Iran's nuclear program has essentially only been set back by months." — Aaron David Miller [02:54]

Miller emphasizes that despite the strikes, Iran remains a "nuclear weapons threshold state," possessing the necessary elements to develop a nuclear weapon within months if it chooses to do so.

Quote:

"Iran's pursuit of the weapon and Iran, a 90 million people nation, is still not dead." — Aaron David Miller [35:03]

Trump Administration’s Role and Decision-Making

A significant portion of the discussion centers on former President Donald Trump’s decision to support Israel's military actions against Iran, contrasting it with the strategies of previous administrations.

Notable Quote:

"Donald Trump is a transactor. And if you get in the middle between him and something he really wants, this is a president who in six months has sidelined Israel, has pressured Israel, and has supported Israel." — Aaron David Miller [27:41]

Miller critiques Trump’s transactional approach, suggesting that his lack of a coherent strategy and absence of a guiding "core" has led to unpredictable and potentially destabilizing actions in the region.

Quote:

"Donald Trump is transactionally situational, and he doesn't have a strategy." — Aaron David Miller [25:38]

Implications for U.S. National Interests

The conversation explores how the recent developments align or conflict with American national interests in the Middle East, such as counterterrorism, maintaining access to hydrocarbons, and preventing the emergence of a regional hegemon with nuclear capabilities.

Notable Quote:

"We have three interests in the Middle East. Number one, counterterrorism. Number two, maintaining access to hydrocarbons. And number three, ensuring that there is no regional hegemon with a nuclear weapon." — Aaron David Miller [32:30]

Miller argues that while preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon remains a consistent priority across administrations, the effectiveness of military strikes in achieving this goal is highly debatable.

The Future of the Middle East: Possibility of a New Hegemon?

Miller provides a bleak outlook on the prospects of a transformative change in the Middle East, citing persistent dysfunction, authoritarianism, and lack of effective leadership as significant barriers to peace and stability.

Notable Quote:

"When people talk about a new Middle East, I shake my head." — Aaron David Miller [44:06]

He posits that Israel's military dominance, while temporarily advantageous, does not translate into long-term solutions without cooperative and visionary leadership from all involved parties.

Diplomacy vs. Military Action

The episode critically examines the efficacy of military action versus diplomatic negotiations in addressing Iran's nuclear ambitions. Miller expresses skepticism about the success of purely military approaches and underscores the necessity of genuine diplomatic efforts.

Quote:

"How do you permanently ensure that Iran can never acquire a nuclear weapon? There's only one way to do it and it is tethered to a galaxy far, far away rather than the realities back here on planet Earth." — Aaron David Miller [39:43]

He suggests that lasting solutions would require regime change or significant internal shifts within Iran, which are highly uncertain and fraught with their own set of challenges.

Concluding Thoughts and Recommendations

In wrapping up the discussion, Miller shares his reflections on the improbability of a "new Middle East" given the current geopolitical landscape. He emphasizes the importance of humility and understanding in U.S. foreign policy, acknowledging the complexities and deep-seated issues that hinder meaningful progress.

Notable Quote:

"This is one complicated region. And we are like very often a modern day Gulliver, wandering around in a part of a world that we don't understand." — Aaron David Miller [48:19]

Miller concludes by recommending three books for listeners interested in deepening their understanding of Middle Eastern diplomacy:

1. Master of the Game: Henry Kissinger and the Art of Middle East Diplomacy by Martin Indig
2. The Man Who Ran Washington: A Life at Times of James Baker by Peter Baker and Sudan Glasser
3. Tomorrow is Yesterday: Life, Death, and the Pursuit of Peace in Israel-Palestine by Hussein Naga and Robert Malley

Key Takeaways

• Israel’s Military Actions: Recent strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities have set back Iran's program by months but have not dismantled it, keeping Iran on the brink of nuclear capability.

• Trump’s Strategic Approach: Former President Trump’s transactional and situational decision-making lacks a coherent strategy, potentially undermining long-term U.S. interests and diplomatic relations in the region.

• Diplomacy vs. Military: Effective diplomacy requires time, flexibility, and genuine willingness from all parties, elements currently missing in the U.S.-Israel-Iran dynamic.

• Future of the Middle East: Significant transformation in the region remains unlikely without visionary leadership and cooperative efforts, as ongoing dysfunction and authoritarianism persist.

• Recommendations for Further Reading: To gain a deeper understanding of Middle Eastern diplomacy and U.S. foreign policy, listeners are encouraged to explore the recommended literature.

This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the precarious state of the Middle East, the interplay of U.S. foreign policy, and the enduring challenges in achieving lasting peace and stability in the region.