A Theory of Media That Explains 15 Years of Politics

The Ezra Klein Show

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Published: Tue Feb 25 2025

In 2016, when Donald Trump won the first time, a little-known book became an unexpected phenomenon. It was “The Revolt of the Public,” self-published two years earlier by a former C.I.A. media analyst, Martin Gurri. Gurri, who is now a visiting research fellow at the Mercatus Center, argued that a revolution in how information flowed was driving political upheavals in country after country: The dynamics of modern media ecosystems naturally created distrust toward institutions and elites, and this was fueling waves of revolt against the status quo. The problem, though, was that though these dynamics could destroy existing political systems, they could not build enduring replacements. Gurri’s book has been on my mind over the past year. In some ways, it explains 2024 better than it explains 2016. But time didn’t just change Gurri’s book; it changed Gurri. After refusing to cast a ballot for president in 2016 and 2020, he voted for Donald Trump in 2024. And in his writing for The Fre...

Summary

The Ezra Klein Show: A Theory of Media That Explains 15 Years of Politics

Host: Ezra Klein, New York Times Opinion
Guest: Martin Gurry, Former CIA Media Analyst and Author of The Revolt of the Public
Release Date: February 25, 2025

Introduction

In this compelling episode of The Ezra Klein Show, host Ezra Klein engages in a thought-provoking dialogue with Martin Gurry, a former CIA media analyst and author of the influential book The Revolt of the Public. Gurry explores the transformative impact of digital media on politics and society over the past fifteen years, offering insights into the erosion of trust in institutions and the rise of populist movements.

Background and The Revolt of the Public

Gurry begins by discussing his 2014 book, The Revolt of the Public, which delves into the seismic shift in media dynamics due to the digital revolution. He explains how the transition from scarce to abundant information has destabilized traditional institutions by democratizing narrative control.

Martin Gurry (03:20): "The ability to control a narrative was gone. In this world of fractured media, there was always an incentive and always an ability to show what was wrong with whoever was ruling. And this was, fundamentally, unstable."

Gurry highlights how the influx of digital information has led to increased social and political turbulence, eroding trust in government, media, business, and academia—institutions that were predominantly shaped in the hierarchical, top-down framework of the 20th century.

Impact of Digital Media on Politics

Ezra Klein and Gurry delve into the causal relationship between media evolution and political instability. Klein emphasizes the often-overlooked dynamic of information flow, which consistently pressures systems towards distrust and constant upheaval.

Ezra Klein (05:56): "There was no other dynamic happening, which is that the nature of the information flow now just creates a constant pressure for distrust."

Gurry concurs, asserting that the information structure acts as an ecological force that shapes societal landscapes. He argues that digital media not only stimulates controversy but also unearths pre-existing negativities towards institutions that were previously masked by traditional media controls.

Martin Gurry (07:03): "The rise of digital media just crashed into a world constructed around analog media and broke it to pieces... it uncovered a lot of negativity towards the institutions that were almost certainly already there."

Erosion of Trust in Institutions

The conversation shifts to the perception of elites and institutions in the modern era. Gurry posits that the increased transparency and abundance of information make elites appear worse than before, not necessarily because they have deteriorated, but because their shortcomings are now more visible.

Martin Gurry (09:40): "There is no question that we think that they're worse because we know so much more about them."

He further critiques the Biden administration for not adapting to the new information environment, likening their approach to outdated, top-down models that fail to engage with the dynamic digital landscape. Gurry contrasts this with Donald Trump's adept use of social media, presenting him as a figure who navigates the fractured media effectively.

Shift in Gurry’s Political Perspective

Initially abstaining from voting in 2016 and 2020, Gurry reveals his eventual support for Trump in 2024. This shift is rooted in his perception of Trump as a proponent of free speech and a disruptor of the established, controlling apparatus of the Biden administration.

Martin Gurry (19:27): "It was free speech. It was normalizing the censorship of things that in the olden days... felt like, this is crazy. This is crazy... So that was my number one thing."

Gurry expresses admiration for Trump's resilience and ability to remain unscathed by scandals, framing him as a mythical figure whose actions transcend conventional political strategies.

Martin Gurry (21:03): "He is kind of like a strange attractor. And these incredible coincidences keep happening all around him that completely defy the laws of probability."

Biden Administration and Media Control

Klein probes into Gurry’s critique of the Biden administration’s attempts to control the information space, likening it to an authoritarian impulse to censor and regulate speech. Gurry defends his stance by highlighting the left’s unique approach to regulation and control.

Martin Gurry (17:25): "The difference is that, okay, do you, as an ordinary person, feel like you can say whatever you want?"

He contrasts this with the right’s historical advocacy for free speech, noting a shift where the left now seeks boundaries to protect against perceived disinformation and hate.

Martin Gurry (18:20): "Only on the left, you find people saying, no, we need boundaries."

Revolt of the Public vs. Revolt of the Elites

Ezra Klein introduces an alternative perspective, suggesting that the true drivers of political shift may be revolts of the elites rather than the public. He observes intense communication and coordination among elites on platforms like Twitter, leading to significant political upheavals.

Ezra Klein (41:29): "What really swinging here are not normies. What's really swinging here are elites."

Gurry acknowledges some truth in this observation but maintains that the public is not a monolith. He emphasizes that the public is fractured into diverse, self-coalescing groups driven by opposition to established powers rather than unified elite agendas.

Martin Gurry (43:04): "The public is fractured into many, many, many pieces... They mobilize entirely by being against."

Future of Government and AI Integration

The discussion progresses to the potential future of government, with Gurry envisioning a leaner, more responsive administration facilitated by AI and digitization. He advocates for a government that is flat, interactive, and trusted by the populace.

Martin Gurry (53:32): "My ideal vision... would be a much leaner, far more responsive, far less politicized, far more AI friendly, far more digitized, and trusted by the people."

However, Gurry acknowledges the challenges, such as government inefficiencies and the risk of creating a system prone to glitches and public backlash. He stresses the need for clear end goals and purposeful governance amidst the chaos of digital transformation.

Trust and Transparency in the Digital Age

Klein and Gurry explore the complexities of transparency in an era overwhelmed by information. They debate whether increased transparency leads to better governance or whether it becomes a tool for weaponizing against established systems.

Martin Gurry (59:19): "Large, complex institutions need to have places where things happen in whispers... But we are now in an entirely different world."

Gurry calls for elites who can navigate the constant spotlight of the digital age, maintaining functionality and trust without falling into the pitfalls of grandstanding or losing authenticity.

Conclusion and Recommendations

As the conversation wraps up, Gurry offers his recommendations for further reading, emphasizing works that dissect media evolution, economic failures, and the psychology of persuasion in the digital age.

Martin Gurry (64:11): "Post Journalism and the Death of Newspapers... Why Most Things Fail... and works by Hugo Mercier on persuasion and disinformation."

Gurry concludes with a hopeful vision of transcending the current digital tumult, drawing parallels to historical transformative periods like the invention of the printing press. He expresses optimism that democratic institutions can adapt and thrive in this new informational landscape.

Martin Gurry (62:43): "Information systems have... we're moving from the industrial age to something that doesn't even have a name yet... We will get past it."

Final Thoughts

This episode illuminates the intricate dance between media evolution and political dynamics, underscoring the fragile trust in institutions amidst the digital revolution. Martin Gurry’s insights provide a nuanced understanding of the challenges and potential pathways forward in an age where information is both a tool for empowerment and a source of instability.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

Martin Gurry (03:20): "The ability to control a narrative was gone. In this world of fractured media, there was always an incentive and always an ability to show what was wrong with whoever was ruling."
Ezra Klein (05:56): "There was no other dynamic happening, which is that the nature of the information flow now just creates a constant pressure for distrust."
Martin Gurry (09:40): "There is no question that we think that they're worse because we know so much more about them."
Martin Gurry (19:27): "It was free speech. It was normalizing the censorship of things that in the olden days... felt like, this is crazy."
Martin Gurry (21:03): "He is kind of like a strange attractor. And these incredible coincidences keep happening all around him that completely defy the laws of probability."
Martin Gurry (53:32): "My ideal vision... would be a much leaner, far more responsive, far less politicized, far more AI friendly, far more digitized, and trusted by the people."
Martin Gurry (64:11): "Post Journalism and the Death of Newspapers... Why Most Things Fail... and works by Hugo Mercier on persuasion and disinformation."

Recommended Reading:

Post Journalism and the Death of Newspapers by Andre Meir
A detailed history of journalism's evolution and its transformation in the digital age.
Why Most Things Fail by Paul Ormerod
An economic analysis exploring government attempts to solve persistent societal issues.
Born Yesterday by Hugo Mercier
An examination of the limits of persuasion and the resilience of pre-existing beliefs.

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