The Ezra Klein Show (NYT Opinion)

Episode: Can Economic Populism Save the Democratic Party?

Date: October 24, 2025
Host: Ezra Klein
Guest: Jared Abbott, Director, Center for Working Class Politics

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the Democratic Party’s estrangement from the American working class. Ezra Klein and guest Jared Abbott unpack recent research on the so-called “Democratic penalty,” how economic and cultural issues intermingle, and why Democrats are struggling to connect with working class voters of all races. Can a return to economic populism offer a solution, or is the problem more deeply rooted in party branding, cultural resonance, and structural shifts? The discussion is rich with recent electoral examples, historical context, and actionable insights for the party’s future.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The "Democratic Penalty" and Party Branding

• Jared Abbott defines the Democratic penalty: Even when hypothetical candidates share the same economic populism, those labeled as Democrats lose significant ground compared to Independents (e.g., 10 points in Michigan, 15 in Ohio).
  • Quote: “...the exact same candidates that had an I versus a D did 10 points better in Michigan, did 15 points better in Ohio... we see these massive penalties just because of the D next to their name.” (Jared Abbott, 03:18)
• Top voter concerns about the Democratic Party are not just “woke” cultural issues but deeper skepticism that Democrats are ineffective or don’t deliver: “A big part of the story here is also people just don’t believe that the Democrats are going to deliver on the things that they talk about, and that’s a huge problem.” (Jared Abbott, 04:36)

2. Culture Wars and Campaign Tactics

• Republicans effectively use culture war attacks—example: Sherrod Brown being targeted with false ads over trans policies.
• Democratic attempts to counter or go on offense against culture war attacks (e.g., Tim Ryan, Sherrod Brown) helped but weren’t enough to overcome the brand penalty.
• Abbott argues for flexibility and local adaptation: Candidates, especially in difficult districts, must have leeway to “relate to their own specific electorate,” even if it upsets progressives. (06:44–08:13)

3. The Power and Limitations of Independent and Local Candidates

• Dan Osborne in Nebraska: An independent, economically populist, pro-worker candidate who also openly embraced Trump on issues like the border, sharply overperformed both parties’ typical results.
• Lesson: Success in deep-red states may mean Democrats should sometimes back off and support credible independents or alternative local profiles—but this can only go so far before it reads as a “scam.”
  • Quote: “If it began to work, but then they’re voting in a more Democratically aligned way once they’re in office, does it just begin to be seen as a scam?... Ultimately you need to figure out a way to rehabilitate the Democratic Party’s brand.” (Ezra Klein, 13:12)

4. Third Parties and Worker-Focused Political Movements

• Realistically, a sustained third party would require robust organic support (e.g., from unions like the Teamsters or Steelworkers).
• Abbott: “I think it would make a lot of sense for those folks to try to do something like that, to not just have independent candidates, but build an independent organization. I just think it’s something that should emerge organically rather than... ‘let's hope people flock to our banner.’” (Jared Abbott, 14:39)

5. The "Class Dealignment" Phenomenon

• Shift from Democrats as “the party of the working class” to Republicans now building a multiracial working class coalition, especially since Trump’s rise.
  • Statistical illustration: In 2024, Trump made huge gains among Hispanic and Black working class voters.
• This shift is echoed across other Western democracies; it’s not unique to U.S. party leadership decisions, suggesting deep structural forces at play.
  • Quote: “Republicans now have that multiracial working class coalition that the Democrats promised was their permanent majority.” (Ezra Klein, 20:06)

6. Why Left Economic Policy Doesn’t Win Back Working Class Voters

• Democrats offer redistributive policies (healthcare, taxing the rich, union protections), yet bleed working class support.
• Abbott: Cultural grievances and a lack of relatable affect are just as powerful as economic issues—economic anxieties get filtered through cultural conflicts (resentment toward elites, urban/rural gaps, etc.).
  • Memorable Moment: Ezra plays the infamous “basket of deplorables” Hillary Clinton clip and Schumer’s 2016 remark about winning suburban Republicans: Both now serve as synecdotes for Democrats’ disconnect. (23:20–24:55)

7. Class and Cultural Progressivism Gaps

• Working class voters have shifted left—but professional/managerial classes have moved much further, creating a growing representation gap inside the party.
  • Quote: “Middle class people and professionals have just gone way farther in a progressive direction on social and cultural issues over the last few decades than working class people have.” (Jared Abbott, 25:12)

8. Economic Populism: Pre-Distribution vs. Redistribution

• Working class voters especially favor pre-distribution policies—those that strengthen labor rights, wages, job protections—over redistribution (welfare, means-tested programs, UBI).
• Policies tied to agency, dignity, and social status (like union jobs) are more appealing and less easily vilified.

9. Lessons from European Politics

• "Class dealignment" isn’t American exceptionalism; European center-left parties also moved away from working class concerns, leaving a gap right-wing populists filled.
• The rise of educated, institutionally powerful liberal coalitions is a structural, international shift.

10. Affect and Authenticity: Candidates as Symbols

• Voters quickly judge if a politician is “like them.” Affect, presentation, and style matter enormously—Bernie Sanders and Dan Osborne read as authentic and anti-party; candidates like Elizabeth Warren, though left on policy, do not.
• Quote: “People are much more comfortable talking about the issue positions... than this other piece, which is, I think better understood as fundamentally representation. Do I see myself in you?” (Ezra Klein, 37:02)

11. The Future: Big Tent, Candidate Recruitment, and Civic Rebuilding

• Democrats need to become more comfortable as a “big tent,” with more regional variation (a historical norm that’s faded as parties nationalize).
• There’s a vicious cycle: The fewer working class candidates, the less recruitment, the weaker the network in those areas.
• Importance of building durable grassroots and civic infrastructure in red/purple and rural areas to develop local talent over time.

12. Changing Party Brands and Looking Forward

• Despite widespread pessimism, party brands have shifted with strong leadership: Clinton, Obama, Trump all remade their party’s image.
• The Democratic Party’s recent “communicative drift” is due to a lack of a true leader since Obama; what comes next in 2028 will matter greatly.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Just having the D next to your name in Ohio and Michigan now is a hell of a weight to carry.” (Ezra Klein, 04:28)
• "The reality is that...we need to allow our candidates in difficult context to understand their voters...If that means, you know, they need to take positions that progressives would get upset about, so be it.” (Jared Abbott, 06:44)
• “Bernie Sanders was functionally doing that [running as an independent] in a much more left wing guise before it was cool.” (Ezra Klein, 44:21)
• "If you just put out this giant platter of progressive economic policies...many of them who haven’t felt much positive coming out of government programs in their lives... they are going to be skeptical of a lot of those programs.” (Jared Abbott, 40:18)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment Topic | |-------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:58-03:07 | Democrats losing the working class; rise of the "Democratic penalty" | | 03:10-05:37 | How the Democratic penalty was measured; party brand problems vs. cultural backlash | | 05:37-08:36 | Case study: OH Senate race, culture war attacks, and the limits of counter-campaigning | | 08:40-10:27 | Dan Osborne’s Nebraska campaign: Authenticity, economic populism, and lessons for Democrats | | 12:09-14:39 | Could Independents or a workers’ third party be a solution? | | 17:17-24:55 | Class dealignment: How, when, and why Democrats lost working class support; comparison to Europe | | 25:12-29:25 | Social vs. economic movement among working class voters, and what policies they actually support | | 36:57-42:21 | Representation, affect, and the difference between Warren/Sanders, AOC/Sanders in working class eyes| | 46:12-48:56 | Running against the Democratic Party: multiple dimensions (left/right/system) | | 54:54-58:05 | The candidate bench problem; why recruitment and civic infrastructure matter so much | | 59:22-63:43 | Can party branding change? Historical examples and looking ahead to 2028 | | 63:48-64:50 | Jared Abbott’s book recs: Rust Belt Union Blues, We’re Still Here, America America |

Concluding Takeaways

• Economic populism alone may not "save" the Democrats—the party faces a deep cultural branding crisis and needs to foster authenticity and relatability at every level.
• Flexibility and regional experimentation are crucial: Allow candidates in redder and working class areas to adapt strategies—and avoid a “one-size-fits-all” progressivism.
• Rebuilding relational infrastructure and candidate pipelines in rural, working class areas is a long but necessary project.
• Strong leadership can dramatically shift reputation—the next Democratic leader’s approach to these dilemmas could decide the party’s future.

Recommended Reading (per Jared Abbott)

• Rust Belt Union Blues by Theta Skocpol and Lainey Newman
• We're Still Here by Jennifer Silva
• America America by Greg Grandin