The Ezra Klein Show – “Can the Israel-Hamas Deal Hold?”
Date: October 17, 2025
Host: Ezra Klein
Guests: Rob Malley, veteran U.S. Middle East negotiator and academic; Hussein Agha, veteran Palestinian negotiator and scholar
Episode Overview
Ezra Klein convenes Rob Malley and Hussein Agha—two of the most experienced and realistic voices involved in Middle East diplomacy—to dissect the new Israel-Hamas deal that has ended active hostilities in Gaza. The conversation critically examines not just the deal’s details but also the deeper, persistent dynamics that render peace so elusive. Malley and Agha, co-authors of “Tomorrow is Yesterday,” reflect on the failures of past negotiations, the current state of Israeli and Palestinian leadership, the enduring influence of regional and international players, and the emotional, irrational, and often paradoxical realities shaping the conflict’s future.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Nature and Limitations of the Israel-Hamas Deal
[01:08 - 06:39]
- The Deal’s Content: A phased agreement brokered mainly by the Trump administration, Qatar, and Turkey:
- Phase 1: Release of all Israeli hostages, release of Palestinian prisoners, Israel’s military pullback, and increased humanitarian aid to Gaza.
- Phase 2: Vague future arrangements aiming at deradicalization and new forms of governance, but with little specificity or enforcement mechanism.
- Malley’s Critique:
“It was a deal...without real consultation with the Palestinians...It has vagueness. It is full of contradictions in terms of no timetables, no arbiter, no way to go if there’s a violation...” (Rob Malley, 03:35) - Agha’s Skepticism:
“In our region...deals do not matter. What matters is what can be achieved, how soon it can be achieved and what it will lead to...don’t go by text, don’t go by deals.” (Hussein Agha, 05:29)
2. Survival and Role of Hamas
[06:39 - 08:59]
- Hamas Not Defeated: Despite Israel’s stated objective, Hamas remains the most powerful Palestinian force in Gaza.
- Realpolitik: Both Trump and Israel tacitly accept Hamas’s administrative dominance in Gaza for now.
- Marginalization of Other Palestinian Actors: The Palestinian Authority (PA) and Fatah were bystanders to the deal.
3. The Palestinian Authority’s Weakness
[08:59 - 14:12]
- Origins of Weakness: Born out of necessity for Israel to have a security partner; not equipped or empowered to govern or defend Palestinians.
- Malley’s Analysis:
“The PA is one of Israel’s most extraordinary accomplishments. Here you have an entity that is entirely subservient and dependent on Israel...” (Rob Malley, 11:24) - Function: Essentially a subcontractor to Israeli security interests, with little political legitimacy.
4. Israel’s Strategy and Contradictions
[12:49 - 18:05]
- Sustaining Division: Israel benefits from a divided Palestinian polity—Hamas in Gaza and a weak PA in the West Bank—to avoid a united negotiating partner.
- Skepticism of “Reform”: Discussion about “reforming” the PA and handing Gaza back to it is met with deep doubt by both guests.
- Goal of Disarmament: Both Malley and Agha are unconvinced by the prospects or enforcement of Hamas disarmament.
5. Trump’s Role and the Limits of “Rational” Negotiation
[20:27 - 24:18]
- Unconventional Diplomat: Trump’s indifference to historical context, rational frameworks, or consistent alliances paradoxically made breakthrough possible.
- Malley’s Reflection:
“He [Trump] is immune to the laws of American political gravity...he’s a politician of intuition...” (Rob Malley, 22:25) - A Different Kind of Power Play: Trump’s egotism and unpredictability cut through the traditional, often technical impasses that hampered prior administrations.
6. Regional Power Centers and Shifting Alliances
[25:56 - 32:08]
- Arab States’ Priorities: Stability and their own national interests now trump Palestinian solidarity, though the issue remains emotionally potent.
- Rise of Saudi Arabia: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman positioned to be the region’s new leader.
- Impact of Iran: Recent conflicts have left Iran weakened in some respects, but not incapacitated. Gulf states now increasingly wary of unchecked Israeli power rather than Iranian hegemony.
7. Israel’s Internal Calculus and Perceptions of Power
[34:29 - 38:45]
- Resurgence of Military Doctrine: A return to belief in force as the sole guarantor of security, even after October 7 shattered core tenets of Israeli defense dogma.
- Strategic Vulnerability: Despite military victories, Israel may be less secure and more dependent—especially on the U.S.—than ever.
8. Global Sentiment and Rising Antisemitism
[37:27 - 43:18]
- Impact of Gaza War: Israel’s global standing is at an all-time low even as it achieves battlefield success; Palestinian cause commands unprecedented international sympathy but lacks effective leadership.
- Agha’s Warning:
“The rise of genuine antisemitism in the world is frightening...this is a major, major thing that has to be dealt with.” (Hussein Agha, 43:18)
9. America’s Changing Relationship with Israel
[45:45 - 53:04]
- American Political Shifts: Growing skepticism and, at times, hostility towards Israel—especially among younger generations of both Democrats and Republicans.
- Long-Term Risk: Israel may be “borrowing strength from the future and putting it into the present without really a plan for how to build it back.” (Ezra Klein, 45:45)
- Malley’s Assessment:
“If I were an Israeli...I’d be very worried about this trend, particularly in the United States, because I think it is a real demographic shift and a generational shift.” (Rob Malley, 47:57)
10. Leadership Succession and the Scattered Palestinian Polity
[53:04 - 56:19]
- Palestinian Leadership in Flux: Unification and renewal remain remote; no viable alternative leaders or structures are apparent. Echoes the lost post-1948 era before the rise of the PLO.
- Future Uncertain: “We are back where we started...we do not know what is this new body that will emerge.” (Hussein Agha, 54:08)
11. The Likelihood of Stalemate
[56:19 - 57:57]
- Back to Square One: After so much death and destruction, Gaza may revert to its prewar, “nightmare” status quo: Hamas in charge, periodic Israeli military action, and no real progress towards resolution.
12. Advice for Would-Be Peacemakers
[57:57 - 63:17]
- Malley:
“Don’t try to replicate the ways of the past...don’t simply decide...let’s try to revive the two state solution...In the case of the two state solution...it’s not a couple of mishaps. It’s decade after decade after decade, not just of mishap but of failures.” (Rob Malley, 58:40) - Agha:
“You have to completely forget about reason and rationality when you deal with this region...the Western ways of doing things do not hold and they have no resonance amongst the inhabitants of this part of the world.” (Hussein Agha, 60:59)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
“In our region...deals do not matter. What matters is what can be achieved, how soon it can be achieved and what it will lead to.”
— Hussein Agha [05:29] -
“The PA is one of Israel’s most extraordinary accomplishments...it provides security, it maintains the occupation, it finances the occupation, and it is entirely dependent on the occupier.”
— Rob Malley [11:24] -
“A brush with disaster, which then leads to a resurgence of Israeli force and a return to that belief [in military power]...just as we see the Palestinians back to where they were, the Israelis are back to where they were as well.”
— Rob Malley [36:10] -
“Don’t try to replicate the ways of the past...In the case of the two state solution…it’s decade after decade after decade, not just of mishap but of failures.”
— Rob Malley [58:40] -
“You have to completely forget about reason and rationality when you deal with this region...It’s messy. And you have to be ready for this messiness by not trying to straight jacket it into neat kind of resolutions...”
— Hussein Agha [60:59] -
“We may end up, after all this, in what will be for Gazans a post-apocalyptic version of what reigned before, in which Hamas is functionally in control...It's the same players engaged in some way in the same dance.”
— Ezra Klein [56:19] -
“There’s sort of three paradoxes...Israel at some level has never been more powerful regionally...and yet...they've never been more ostracized and more condemned by the world. The Palestinians...have never enjoyed such universal acclaim...and yet their leadership...has rarely been more adrift.”
— Rob Malley [42:03]
Timestamps for Important Segments
- [01:08] – Opening context and description of the deal
- [03:35] – Malley’s critique of the deal
- [05:29] – Agha’s skepticism and historical perspective
- [06:39] – Discussion of Hamas’s ongoing power
- [11:24] – Malley: The Palestinian Authority’s structural dependence
- [14:12] – The calculated division of Palestinian leadership
- [20:27] – Trump’s uniqueness as a broker
- [25:56] – Regional power stakes and the role of Arab states
- [32:08] – The weakened but persistent power of Iran
- [34:29] – How Israeli power and security doctrine have evolved
- [42:03] – Three paradoxes at the heart of the current situation
- [43:18] – Agha on rising antisemitism globally
- [45:45] – The future of the US-Israel relationship and implications for Israel
- [53:04] – The challenge of Palestinian leadership renewal
- [56:19] – Likelihood of returning to the previous status quo
- [57:57] – Advice for future peace processes
- [63:17] – Book recommendations
Book Recommendations
-
Rob Malley:
- “One Day Everyone Will Always Have Been Against Us” by Omar El Akkad
- “Say Nothing” by Patrick Radden Keefe
- “Dirty Hands” by Jean-Paul Sartre & “The Just Assassins” by Albert Camus
-
Hussein Agha:
- “The Peloponnesian War” by Thucydides
- “The Man Without Qualities” by Robert Musil
- “Hollywood Babylon” by Kenneth Anger
Summary Takeaways
This episode offers a sobering assessment: While the Israel-Hamas deal has ended immediate violence, it rests atop unresolved contradictions and historic failures. All sides—Israelis, Palestinians, and Americans—are more powerful and more adrift than ever. Lasting peace remains remote absent new, less rational, more emotionally attuned approaches that reject the failed “technocratic rationality” of previous processes. The soundness of the current ceasefire is fragile. Without systemic change, the future will likely resemble a tragic, repetitive past.