The Ezra Klein Show — "Has Trump Achieved a Lot Less Than It Seems?"

Date: January 16, 2026
Host: Ezra Klein, NYT Opinion
Guest: Yuval Levin, conservative thinker and scholar

Episode Overview

Main Theme:
Ezra Klein sits down with Yuval Levin to dissect the first year of Donald Trump’s second presidential term. Amid a daily whirlwind of news, controversy, executive orders, and dramatic action, the central question is: How much has Trump actually accomplished? Is the sense of upheaval matched by real, lasting policy change—or does the expansion of presidential “retail” power obscure a more limited record? The conversation covers legislative action, regulatory change, the administration’s unique deal-making style, institutional intimidation, and the broader cultural impact on the right and American governance.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Two Competing Stories of the Trump Presidency

• Yuval Levin:
  • There’s a story of massive achievement—border security, rollback of “woke” policies, setbacks for Iranian nuclear ambitions, economic strength.
  • There’s also a story of abuses—law enforcement “contorted” for presidential grudges, institutional intimidation, masked agents chasing immigrants, scientific funding chaos, tariffs raising prices.
  • Crucial Insight: “The common denominator is a lot of action, but not necessarily a lot of durable, systemic policy change.” [03:16]
  • Legislative and regulatory activity are historically low for a presidential first year.

2. The Numbers: Has Spending Changed?

• Ezra Klein: [05:35]
  • Asks for empirical comparison of federal spending under Biden and Trump.
• Levin:
  • Despite claims of spending cuts, actual spending increased by 4% in 2025 due to lack of major legislative changes.
  • Action often didn’t match headlines: “A lot of times when you see claims... it’s worth... asking ‘did this actually happen?’” [05:43]
  • The “big beautiful bill” is the only notable legislative accomplishment.

3. The NIH Spending Saga

• NIH initially faced freezes, apparent withholding/redirection of funds, and hints of executive intent to intimidate or bypass Congress.
• By end of year, spending was rushed to hit legal requirements—creating future problems (e.g., multi-year grants spent in a single year).
  • “A decision was made to avoid an impoundment fight and to spend all the money.” [07:22]

4. Retail vs. Wholesale Governance: Trump’s Style

• Levin:
  • Trump’s approach is “retail dealmaking”—cutting individual deals with companies, universities, specific sectors—rather than sweeping policy for whole industries or system-wide regulation.
  • This creates an impression of constant action; “each of these deals achieves something relatively small. It can be significant, but it’s not broad governance.” [09:25]
  • “Dealmaking gives the president more leverage...but it is very much the mode of action of this administration.” [12:20]

5. The University “Assault” and its Limits

• Initial targeting of elite universities resulted in “one-by-one” deals, not system-wide reform.
• Universites prefer these deals (greater negotiation, less regulation), avoiding more durable legislative changes, which the White House is, notably, uninterested in.
  • “The compact basically fell apart. It did not succeed. No university signed on.” [13:40]

6. Perception vs. Reality: News-Cycle Action vs. Durable Policy

• Klein:
  • Retail dealmaking fits the bandwidth/speed of the news cycle; broad legislation/regulation is slow, obscure, and less “graspable.”
  • “There is more said than done. There’s more above the surface than beneath the surface.” [17:03]
• Levin:
  • “We’re living in a less transformative time than we think in this way.” [17:33]

7. Intimidation & the Culture of Governance

• Doge and other agencies underwent not just policy change but intentional intimidation, “to either shut up or get on board.”
• Levin:
  • “They've used the weight of government as a kind of cudgel...it does create cultural changes.” [19:56]
  • “A university president... forced...to reckon with just how dependent that university is on federal funding...is never going to look at his budget the same way again.” [20:54]
  • This shift undermines the assumed stability and reliability of American governance.

8. Areas of Real Change: Immigration & Tariffs

• Klein/Levin:
  • Immigration is the exception: major legislative change, rulemaking, and bureaucratic control, making durable changes at the border.
  • Trade (tariffs) also deeply affected, but legal challenges, especially at the Supreme Court, may yet unwind these changes. [25:23]

9. How the Trump White House Actually Makes Decisions

• Levin:
  • The usual, multilayered policy process is absent. Instead, it’s centralized—Stephen Miller (deputy chief of staff for policy) is a sort of “prime minister.” Decisions are “narrower, not broader.”
  • Meetings and internal debates are rare; policies flow from the President’s stated or signaled priorities.
  • “Things really are driven a lot by a fairly narrow range of priorities.” [28:39]
  • Cabinet members do not play their usual dual role (representing both the President and their department’s expertise). [32:47]

10. Is This Autocracy?

• Klein:
  • Channels a viewpoint aligned with Masha Gessen—seeing a possible transformation toward an autocratic “regime” rather than a mere presidency.
• Levin:
  • There is autocratic directionality, but “it’s not as thought through as that.” [36:08]
  • The impulse for transformation exists, but it’s constrained by unpopularity and system friction (“There is a democracy underneath all that.”).
  • “What they're doing isn't popular, and... the elements... they are now leaning into most seem to me to be the least popular parts.” [37:10]
  • America’s courts and Congress have meaningfully checked the administration.

11. Power, Intimidation, and the “Signaling” Effect

• Klein:
  • Policy isn’t just about popularity or procedure—it’s about demonstrating who has power and who should be afraid.
  • Cites ICE and National Guard interventions as signals, which may have chilling effects on opposition, even if unpopular. [42:47]
• Levin:
  • Agrees this is a form of “power consolidation,” but doubts its long-term effectiveness: “Ultimately, I think the Democratic metrics matter more because they determine whether this is durable change.” [44:15]

12. Systemic Checks: Congress & Courts

• Levin:
  • Despite executive overreach, both Congress and the courts have pushed back:
    • Senate has spiked a “very high” number of nominations [45:53]
    • Federal courts find against administration more than half the time ("lost 57%"), with minimal appeals indicating limited legal confidence.

13. The Jerome Powell/Federal Reserve Case

• Criminal probe into the Fed chair interpreted as law enforcement being used for presidential whims; intimidation as a tool.
  • “It's a form of intimidation. There's no way around it.” [49:21]
• Klein:
  • Points out such moves send signals to all federal officials—most lack independent power to push back and are more vulnerable.

14. The Right: Generational and Ideological Change

• Levin (on the young right):
  • Younger conservatives now grew up only knowing Trump as the party’s archetype.
  • New right more despairing, less constitutionalist, more “populist than conservative.”
  • “One way to think about the difference is about whether your politics begins from what you care about most, what you love, or... what you fear and what you hate.” [58:52]
  • Older right tries to conserve constitutional values and pursue the “good”; younger activists focus on opposition to the left and wielding power.
  • “Understanding ourselves as being at war with our own society is not... effective politics or a good life.” [61:09]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Yuval Levin (on overall impact):
  “There is more said than done. There's more above the surface than beneath the surface. And it is very well suited to a telling of the story.” [17:03]

• Levin (on university intimidation):
  “A university president...is never going to look at his budget the same way again. Even if the next president is very friendly...it will always be in the back of his mind that this can change.” [20:54]

• Ezra Klein (on the news cycle):
  “Retail dealmaking fits the bandwidth of the news and legislation doesn't exactly...Whereas these deals...fit the sense that something is happening that is graspable.” [15:34]

• Levin (on autocracy):
  “There's no way around it. It always has been. I think there are some people in the administration who have a more expressly, consciously transformative view...and there is certainly some push in that direction, and it's very dangerous and very damaging.” [36:08]

• Levin (generational challenge for the right):
  “Is your politics about what you care about most, what you love—or what you fear and hate?...I do think that is the generational question for the right now.” [58:52]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Opening Framing — Overwhelming Action vs. Actual Change: [01:02–03:16]
• The Numbers: Spending Under Trump vs. Biden: [05:35–07:12]
• NIH Funding Story: [07:12–09:16]
• Retail vs. Wholesale Governance: [09:16–13:14]
• University Policy: Failed Compact and One-by-One Deals: [13:14–15:34]
• Perception vs. Reality; The News Cycle: [15:34–18:35]
• Cultural Impact and Institutional Intimidation: [18:35–23:50]
• Immigration and Tariffs as Exceptions: [25:16–27:41]
• White House Decision-Making & Structure: [27:41–34:29]
• Is this Autocracy? Constraints vs. Real Change: [34:29–42:47]
• Power, Chilling Effects, ICE & Protests: [42:47–45:53]
• Congress and Court Pushback: [45:53–48:38]
• The Jerome Powell/DOJ Case: [48:38–52:26]
• Impact on Young Conservatives and the Right: [54:14–61:09]
• Recommended Reading: [61:40–62:48]

Recommended Books (per Yuval Levin)

1. Congress: Insecure Majorities by Frances Lee
2. Presidency: Making the Presidency by Lindsay Chervinsky
3. Supreme Court: The Last Branch Standing (forthcoming) by Sarah Isgur

Takeaway

Despite the daily firestorm of news, spectacle, and individual “deals,” Trump’s second-term presidency is characterized by a paradox: durable, system-wide policy change has been relatively limited—except in immigration and, to a lesser (and less legally settled) extent, trade—while the administration’s style and use of power has damaged institutional trust, increased intimidation, and cast a long shadow on American civic culture. Perhaps the most lasting impact is not on government structure, but on the culture of the right and the way power, norms, and the presidency itself are understood.

For listeners who missed the episode, this summary captures the major arguments, style, and unique analytical insights offered by Ezra Klein and Yuval Levin in a momentous year for American democracy.