The Ezra Klein Show – “The Blue Wave Cometh?”

Air Date: November 7, 2025
Host: Ezra Klein | Guest: Aaron Retica, NYT Opinion Editor

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the unexpectedly decisive Democratic victories in the 2025 off-year elections and what they signal for the party’s strategy heading toward 2026 and 2028. Ezra Klein and Aaron Retica analyze whether these results herald a new Democratic “wave,” debate the party’s ideological balance, discuss effective electoral policies—especially around affordability—and reflect on the broader moral nature of today’s politics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. What Did Democrats Really Win?

(Starts ~01:06)

• Ezra lists sweeping Democratic victories: big wins in NY, NJ, VA, CA, PA, and even low-profile Georgia state elections.
• Despite winning in states President Harris carried in 2024, the margin and breadth suggest bigger political momentum.
• Ezra: “These results looked much more like the prelude to a wave election in 2026...both sides are going to be looking at this election to try to take some big lessons.”
• Discussion: Is this a sign of a leftward shift or the success of moderation? Conclusion: Democrats are succeeding with different tactics in different places.

2. Managing a Broad Coalition

(02:43–04:00)

• Aaron points out both moderates (like Spanberger) and progressives (like Mamdani) won on affordability, not on ideological extremes.
• Aaron: “If you are a progressive, there was much to be delighted by. If you are a moderate, there was much to be delighted by.”

3. Can Democrats Win Back the Heartland?

(03:39–05:55)

• Ezra notes Democrats’ persistent weakness in “Trump +10” states (Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, etc.).
• Though off-cycle wins point to progress, they “are not yet a test” for recapturing those harder-ground states.
• Quote: “The question of what would you need to do to win an election in Ohio and Florida, in Iowa is not, I think, yet answered.” (Ezra, 04:43)

4. Republican Disarray and MAGA Vulnerabilities

(05:55–08:43)

• Ezra observes “the right is opening up some really profound vulnerabilities for itself” due to infighting over white supremacy and personalities like Tucker Carlson and Nick Fuentes.
• Quote: “This doesn’t look to me like a coalition spending a lot of its time thinking about how to appeal to the median voter.” (Ezra, 07:08)

5. Affordability: The Unifying Campaign Issue

(08:55–15:42)

• Both hosts agree affordability drove victories, especially flipping Hispanic-heavy NJ counties.
• Ezra explains the pendulum: in 2024, Democrats were blamed for high costs; in 2025, with Trump back in power, Republicans were blamed.
• Ezra: “You could see sustained political ricochet against the national incumbent party that gets blamed for it.”
• Mamdani’s NY campaign succeeded on “memetic”—simple, repeatable—policies: fast/free buses, rent freeze, universal free grocery stores, and child care.
  • “He had functionally four policy ideas that, like, fit on an index card...” (Ezra, 12:00)

Notable Segment

• 13:00–15:42: Discussion on the need for a simple, national “six for 2026” Democratic agenda focused on affordability.

6. Mamdani’s Win: More Than a Left-Wing Fluke?

(15:59–21:28)

• His coalition was broader than “precarious” young lefties; many immigrant and even some “Trump Mamdani” voters.
• Attacks against Mamdani were rarely about his policies (which were broadly popular), but religion, Israel, and crime.
• Ezra: “The actual policy agenda Mamdani ran on was neither that activating to his opponents...and highly popular.”

7. Housing Policy Debate

(21:28–26:05)

• Deep-dive into rent freezes, affordable housing supply, pros and cons of mixing market and affordable housing.
• Aaron: “There’s a lot of arguments for rent stabilization that have nothing to do with the housing supply and have to do with... why is New York better than a lot of other cities?”
• Ezra raises concerns about the easy appeal of freezes vs. the hard work of building more housing.

8. California’s Prop 50 & Gavin Newsom’s New Playbook

(28:49–36:17)

• Newsom’s successful Prop 50 mid-cycle redistricting (+65%) and increased housing ambition show a “politics of experimentation.”
• Newsom reaches out to MAGA via podcast guests like Charlie Kirk, but also reinvents policy, making big, sometimes polarizing moves.
• Ezra: “[Newsom] does not seem afraid of making people mad on his own side...He is acting like a politician who is looking at the landscape and making moves.”
• Newsom’s approach signals that Democratic wins can come from policy boldness and willingness to court, not fear, controversy.

Notable Quote

• “Not seeming afraid is actually quite powerful in politics because not being afraid allows you to try new things.” (Ezra, 33:20)

9. The Moral Character of Politics: Love, Respect, and Cruelty

(36:17–49:08)

• Aaron and Ezra reflect on classic philosophical tensions:
  • Henry Adams’ “politics...the systematic organization of hatreds” vs. Bernard Crick’s “political activity...helps in some way in nearly everything” and guards against “cruelties...of ideological rule.”
• Trump’s politics as organizing of hatreds vs. Obama’s as bridge-building.
• Mamdani is cited as a new model of “left pluralism,” reaching out even to antagonistic groups.
• Ezra: “The actual way that [Mamdani] ran the election...was neither that activating to his opponents...and highly popular.”
• Politics “should be an act of love and fellowship,” even when difficult.

Notable Quote

• “Love is only politically interesting when it’s difficult, and pluralism is only politically interesting when it’s difficult.” (Ezra, 43:50)

10. Liberalism as Anti-Cruelty and Practical Power

(46:45–49:08)

• Aaron quotes Judith Shklar and posits: “Liberal and humane people...would...put cruelty first [among vices]. Cruelty is the worst thing we do.”
• Anti-cruelty is the Democratic Party’s animating force; affordability is the practical agenda.

11. Rebuilding Connections With the Disaffected

(47:42–49:08)

• Ezra links the Democratic Party’s shift to serving the educated/affluent with its loss among rural, non-college, and poorer voters.
• The challenge is not to just win, but to “renit” people’s connection to liberal democracy, particularly those feeling failed.

12. Virtue, Courage, and Liberalism in Hard Times

(49:39–53:46)

• Ezra reads from Judith Shklar on liberal virtues: “If they were easy, they wouldn’t be virtues.”
• Obama: The current era newly “asks something of us” to believe in democracy—a test of courage for leaders and voters alike.

13. Big-Tent Liberalism and Its Challenges

(53:46–61:12)

• True liberalism is enriched by the “radicalism to its left” and succeeds by embracing multitudes and tolerating discomfort.
• The Democratic Party since 2004 opened to the left, but now it needs to “widen” rather than “move.”
• Diversity (ideological and demographic) is hard but “makes [parties] more effective.”
• The loss of bridge-builders like Rep. Golden reflects the cost when the party narrows.

Notable Quote

• “We want to be not left, not right, but bigger—left and right, but also more multidimensional.” (Ezra)

• Aaron closes: “The Democratic Party should be...a machine to make people’s economic lives better and that liberalism should be an anti-cruelty machine. And the two things together...are a very good recipe for...reclaiming [lost] areas.” (59:51–61:12)

Notable Quotes and Moments

• Ezra Klein (01:06): “Democrats had a big night...they won everywhere. Every kind of voter moved towards Democrats.”
• Aaron Retica (08:49): “The [chart] that was really making liberal hearts beat faster was...counties in New Jersey that have 60% or more Hispanic residents...swung hard towards Sherrill.”
• Ezra Klein (12:00): “Mamdani...had functionally four policy ideas that, like, fit on an index card...they contained the whole of his [affordability] idea.”
• Ezra Klein (29:26): “Newsom has put himself in a stronger position than I would have thought...you can make decisions to try new things and see if they work.”
• Ezra Klein (33:20): “Not seeming afraid is actually quite powerful in politics because not being afraid allows you to try new things politically and just see how they work out.”
• Ezra Klein (43:50): “Love is only politically interesting when it’s difficult, and pluralism is only politically interesting when it’s difficult.”
• Aaron Retica (49:08): “The Democratic Party should be...the American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Humans.”
• Ezra Klein (47:42): “It is not a coincidence as the Democratic Party’s become the party of the institutions...that the people who have been most open to Donald Trump’s ‘burn it all down’ approach are the people being failed by this country.”

Segment Timestamps

• Election Recap & Immediate Lessons: 01:06–05:55
• Affordability as the Key Voter Concern: 08:49–21:28
• Housing, Rent Stabilization Debate: 21:28–26:05
• Newsom, California, and Political Boldness: 28:49–36:17
• Moral Philosophy of Political Activity: 36:17–49:08
• Liberalism’s Purpose, Big-Tent Strategy: 49:39–61:12

Final Thoughts

Ezra Klein and Aaron Retica see the 2025 “Blue Wave” not as proof of any single ideological formula but as evidence that Democratic success hinges on boldness, clarity, genuine respect for all voters, an unrelenting focus on making life more affordable, and a politics defined by anti-cruelty and pluralism—not resentment or fear. The episode ends with a call for “big-tent liberalism” and the courage to open, not narrow, the party’s coalition.

For listeners wanting to understand where the Democratic Party is headed after a year of surprising victories, this episode is a rich, wide-ranging exploration of strategy, substance, and the moral vision of modern liberalism.