The Book That Predicted the 2024 Election

The Ezra Klein Show

Published: Sat Nov 09 2024

To understand the 2024 election results, it helps to go back to 2020. Donald Trump lost the election that year, but he made significant gains with nonwhite voters. At the time, a lot of Democrats saw that as a fluke, a hangover from Covid lockdown policies. But the Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini saw it as bellwether. In his 2023 book, “Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP,” Ruffini argued that Trump was ushering in a party realignment. A trend that had been happening for years in the white electorate – college-educated voters moving to the left, and non-college-educated ones moving to the right – was now evident, he said, among voters of all races, breaking up the core of the Democratic base. And so far, the data we have from this election suggests that Ruffini was right. In this conversation, Ruffini, a founding partner at Echelon Insights, contextualizes the 2024 election results by looking back at 2020’s. We discuss what Democra...

Summary

Summary of "The Book That Predicted the 2024 Election" Episode of The Ezra Klein Show

Release Date: November 9, 2024
Host: Ezra Klein, New York Times Opinion
Guest: Patrick Raffini, Republican Pollster and Founding Partner at Echelon Insights

Introduction and Context

In this episode of The Ezra Klein Show, host Ezra Klein engages in a deep conversation with Patrick Raffini, a seasoned Republican pollster and author of the book Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP. The discussion revolves around the predictive insights Raffini offered before the 2024 election, analyzing the political realignments that have shaped recent electoral outcomes.

The 2020 Election and Democratic Realignment

Raffini’s analysis begins with the 2020 election, where he observed a significant realignment within the Democratic coalition. He states:

"In the 2020 election, Biden was projected to win that election in the polls by 8 points. And it turns out to be very, very close." ([00:28])

He highlights unexpected shifts in key demographic groups, particularly among Hispanic and Asian voters, who moved towards Donald Trump more than Democrats had anticipated. This movement signaled a broader racial and educational realignment within American politics.

The 2024 Election: Continuation of 2020 Trends

Ezra Klein points out that the 2024 election appears to follow similar patterns established in 2020:

"People are talking about 2024 as if it has this entirely new shape, but it doesn't. It looks like 2020." ([04:05])

Raffini concurs, emphasizing that understanding the 2024 election requires a grasp of the underlying changes that began in 2020. He asserts that the coalitions at the core of American politics have transformed, influencing voter behavior consistently across successive elections.

Educational Divide and Racial Realignment

A central theme of the discussion is the educational polarization reshaping the electorate. Raffini explains:

"Non college educated voters have zoomed right, college educated voters have zoomed left." ([05:35])

He delves into how this divide is not merely a statistical trend but reflects deeper ideological shifts. Notably, Raffini observes that:

"The folks in [African American, Hispanic, Asian] groups who described themselves as conservatives all move 35 to 40 points towards Donald Trump in that election." ([05:35])

This ideological reorientation indicates a weakening of traditional Democratic group solidarity and a realignment based on perceived self-interest and racial identity.

Democratic Campaign Strategy and Missteps

Klein critiques the Democratic strategy in light of these realignments, particularly Kamala Harris's campaign approach. He suggests that the party may have misread the electorate's priorities by focusing on identity politics over economic concerns. Raffini responds by highlighting the Democrats' undervaluing of material economic issues:

"I think it's just a complete undervaluing by the Democrats of the material explanations for why this electorate was going to act the way it did." ([20:36])

He argues that economic frustrations, such as those stemming from inflation and the cost of living, played a more significant role in voter behavior than the Democrats acknowledged.

Trump vs. Harris: Messaging and Impact

The contrast between Donald Trump's and Kamala Harris's campaign messages is a focal point. Raffini notes Trump's ability to resonate with working-class voters through his "blue collar aesthetic" and direct communication style:

"Trump... instinctively understands, how to create visuals and how to create moments that will break through with the average American." ([55:07])

Conversely, Harris's emphasis on issues like abortion and democracy did not effectively engage the broader electorate, particularly those concerned with economic issues. Raffini asserts:

"Harris has just never been a politician associated with economic policy fights." ([41:08])

Realignment vs. Environmental Factors

The conversation also touches on broader political trends and historical patterns. Raffini references historical elections to illustrate the cyclical nature of incumbent success and party realignment:

"You have entrenched competitive two-party politics in America. You've written about this at length. And I don't think that either party can ever escape accountability for bad things that happen on their watch." ([58:44])

He emphasizes that while realignments occur, they do not guarantee long-term dominance for either party, maintaining that competitive dynamics persist in American politics.

Future Implications for the GOP and Democrats

Looking ahead, Raffini remains cautiously optimistic about the GOP's prospects, noting that the party has adeptly adapted to changing demographics and voter priorities. However, he cautions that:

"No matter what the coalitions look like and no matter what they are, the shape of what the coalition will look like in the future will be very different." ([59:19])

This adaptability suggests that both parties must continually evolve to address the electorate's shifting concerns and identities.

Book Recommendations

In concluding the episode, Raffini recommends three insightful books for listeners interested in understanding the evolving political landscape:

Steadfast Democrats by Ismail White and Cheryl Laird – Explores the stable alignment of Black voters within the Democratic coalition.
The Real Majority by Richard Scammon and Ben Wattenberg – Analyzes the shifting loyalties of white working-class voters during the Nixon era.
The New Americans by Michael Barone – Examines the political integration and shifts of various immigrant groups in the United States.

Conclusion

Patrick Raffini's insights offer a comprehensive framework for understanding the electoral dynamics leading up to the 2024 election. By highlighting the interplay between educational polarization, racial realignment, and campaign strategies, the episode underscores the complexity of contemporary American politics. Raffini's analysis serves as a crucial resource for comprehending the ongoing transformations within the GOP and the Democratic Party, providing listeners with a nuanced perspective on the forces shaping electoral outcomes.

Produced by Elias, with fact-checking by Kate Sinclair, Mary Marge Locker, Jack McCordick, and Michelle Harris. Senior engineering by Jeff Geld, additional mixing by Aman Sahota and Isaac Jones, and supervising editing by Claire Gordon. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie Rose Strass.