The Ezra Klein Show
Episode: "The Rural Power Behind Trump’s Assault on Blue Cities"
Date: October 21, 2025
Host: Ezra Klein
Guest: Suzanne Mettler, Political Scientist and Co-Author of Rural vs. Urban
Episode Overview
Ezra Klein and political scientist Suzanne Mettler explore the deepening rural-urban divide in American politics. They unpack its relatively recent origins, the role of resentment and affiliation, the paradoxes of policy blame and perception, the unique American electoral system, and the dangerous consequences of a divided polity—culminating in the Trump administration's use of state National Guards in Democratic-run cities. The conversation addresses whether this divide is inevitable, its roots, and how Democrats might begin to bridge this chasm to strengthen democracy and avert greater conflict.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The Rural-Urban Political Split: A Recent Phenomenon
- Not an inevitability:
- Historical context:
“We treat this as an inevitability in our politics, but it is only a few decades old.”
—Ezra Klein (03:11)
2. Why the Divide Emerged: Beyond Civil Rights or Racism
- The common narrative—that the divide was triggered by civil rights backlash—does not fit the timeline (09:19).
- Economic decline in the 1980s–2000s, especially farm crises, deindustrialization, and trade agreements like NAFTA, drove rural voters away from Democrats (10:53).
- The perceived “abandonment” by Democrats, particularly under Clinton-era economic policy, accelerated this shift (11:57).
“What we find is that when the rural-urban divide began to grow in the 1990s, it was economic factors that were driving it.”
—Suzanne Mettler (10:53)
3. Perception vs. Policy: Blame, Grievance, and Affinity
- Actual policy preferences between rural and urban (white) voters are not as different as the party split would suggest, except on a few issues (e.g., guns, abortion) (09:19).
- The resentment stems less from party platforms or even local economic realities than from the impression that Democrats are urban elites dismissive of rural lives (13:21).
- Events like the 2008 financial crisis fueled the feeling that ‘cities bounced back, rural places got left behind,’ exacerbating grievance (14:30).
“There is what happens and then there is who is blamed for what happens.”
—Ezra Klein (12:18)
4. Organizational Decline and the Power of Affinity
- The dissolution of on-the-ground Democratic organizing, especially after the Howard Dean era and Obama’s 2008 campaign, left rural places without meaningful connection to the party (40:30, 43:05).
- Meanwhile, Republican affinity is reinforced by evangelical churches, gun groups, and right-wing media (34:01, 34:53).
“If the party is not putting full time organizers in rural, rural places, then people feel abandoned there.”
—Suzanne Mettler (56:27)
5. The American System and Rural Overrepresentation
- The U.S. Senate, Electoral College, and districting all amplify rural voters’ influence, making rural resentment politically potent and urban majorities frustrated (17:45).
- This overrepresentation is newly consolidated almost wholly in the Republican Party, increasing polarization and gridlock (19:02).
6. Polarization, Identity Politics, and Media
- Identitarian teamsmanship now dominates; rural white Americans rate Democrats “at 14” out of 100, well below their feelings for ‘illegal immigrants’ (35:48).
- Media echo chambers (talk radio, Fox News, social media) strengthen negative partisanship and make Democratic outreach more difficult (34:01).
7. Trump, Grievance, and Policy Failure
- Trump, despite his urban elite roots, exploited rural grievance by attacking “the right people” and feeding anger at urban elites (48:09).
- Democrats’ efforts to use policy to woo rural America (e.g., infrastructure, broadband, healthcare) often fall flat when affinity is missing (51:27).
“Trump hates all the right people.”
—Ezra Klein (49:31)
8. Risk of Unrest: Rural Power, Urban Control, and Violence
- Trump’s deployment of National Guard troops from red states into blue cities is described as a rural coalition militarily occupying urban areas—a dangerous escalation (01:04, 52:21).
- Both guests express grave concern over the potential trajectory, referencing global patterns of democratic decay (54:12).
9. What Would It Take to Reverse the Divide?
- Not simply shifting policy or messaging, but investing in long-term organizing, listening, and “losing by less” in rural areas can change the balance (40:30, 63:26).
- Policy does matter (“grievance doesn’t put food on the table”), but only in tandem with deep relational investment; successful rural Democrats often run against their own party, signaling difference and independence (57:21, 60:10).
“It’s crucial to build that bridge, because otherwise you’re not going to win the Senate. The Electoral College is an uphill battle.” —Suzanne Mettler (38:30)
10. Books Recommendation (Closing Segment)
[65:36]
- The Politics of Resentment by Katherine Cramer
- Demon Copperhead by Barbara Kingsolver
- Devotions by Mary Oliver
Notable Quotes & Timestamps
-
“The rural-urban divide did not exist nationwide in the past… right up to the early 90s, rural and urban Americans voted almost in lockstep.”
—Suzanne Mettler (04:43) -
“Now, reversing it isn’t going to be easy, but it begins with understanding it and taking seriously the resentments that fuel it.”
—Ezra Klein (03:11) -
“It’s not that I’m against wind energy, I’m against how it was done here.”
—Local interviewee, cited by Suzanne Mettler (29:14) -
“In our analysis… rurality still matters. It matters over and above [education].”
—Suzanne Mettler (16:21) -
“Political parties need to do this for people… in rural places, the Democratic Party has become very weak.”
—Suzanne Mettler (32:31) -
“I think Democrats want to believe they can do it all through positive-sum policy… and it seems to me that so long as there is not a pre-existing sense of affinity, it’s all going to fall flat politically.”
—Ezra Klein (51:27) -
“It was not inevitable.”
—Suzanne Mettler (44:12), on the rise of the rural/urban split -
“While it can seem really daunting in a statewide election, giving some support to rural areas can make a big difference if you use the strategy of losing by less, which is something they all talk about.”
—Suzanne Mettler (63:26)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- [01:04 - 04:21] — Ezra Klein’s framing: Trump, National Guard in cities, and the rural-urban coalition crisis.
- [04:23 - 10:42] — Suzanne Mettler details the recent emergence of the rural/urban divide; historical bipartisan coalitions.
- [10:53 - 14:30] — Causes: economic decline, blame attribution, and the birth of rural resentment.
- [16:21 - 19:02] — Role of education and U.S. electoral structures amplifying rural power.
- [29:14 - 31:19] — Renewable energy example: policy, process, and the question of respect.
- [34:01 - 36:36] — Role of local organizations, right-wing media, and the polarization of rural perception.
- [48:09 - 51:27] — Trump as a symbol: grievance, identity, and Democratic party challenges.
- [52:21 - 54:47] — The risk of unrest: lessons from history, warning signs, and need for bridge-building.
- [56:27 - 63:26] — What to do: Organizing, “losing by less,” and case studies of successful strategies.
- [65:36 - 67:14] — Suzanne Mettler’s three book recommendations.
Tone & Takeaways
The episode is reflective, analytical, and urgent. It moves beyond platitudes—challenging the idea that policy alone can change deep political divides, insisting that only by engaging rural America directly and persistently can democracy and party coalitions be rebuilt. Both Klein and Mettler warn about the dangerous precedents of militarized responses to political division and call for a generational effort to restore political dialogue and representation.
For Listeners Who Haven’t Heard the Episode:
This conversation will clarify why and how American politics has become so deeply divided by place, why simple solutions have failed, and what might be needed to heal democracy’s rift. It combines rich historical context, surprising data, and grounded voices from America’s rural heartlands—leaving the listener with a sobering sense of the stakes, and some concrete ideas for bridging the divide.