Tom Friedman Thinks We’re Getting China Dangerously Wrong

The Ezra Klein Show

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Published: Tue Apr 15 2025

My colleague Tom Friedman thinks we’re screwed. That’s the first thing he told me when recounting his recent trip to China. It’s not just because of the trade war that President Trump is escalating right now. Friedman believes the whole Washington consensus on China — that the country is a hostile adversary — is dangerous and based on an outdated understanding of what China now is. He saw how China’s manufacturing and technology have advanced so far that in many ways it now surpasses the United States’. In this conversation, Friedman walks me through the advancements he saw in some of the most critical fields of the coming decades — including A.I., E.V.s and clean energy. We discuss why he sees the current consensus as dangerous, what a different path might look like and what the United States should do to develop its domestic manufacturing so that we don’t “get steamrolled.” This episode contains strong language. Mentioned: “I Just Saw the Future. It Was Not in America.” by T...

Summary

Summary of "Tom Friedman Thinks We’re Getting China Dangerously Wrong" | The Ezra Klein Show

Release Date: April 15, 2025
Host: Ezra Klein
Guest: Tom Friedman, New York Times Columnist

Introduction

In this episode of The Ezra Klein Show, Ezra Klein engages in a deep discussion with Tom Friedman, a prominent New York Times columnist known for his insights on globalization, technology, and international relations. The focal point of their conversation revolves around the United States' policies towards China, the ongoing trade war, and the broader implications for global stability and technological competition.

1. Overview of the US-China Trade War

Tom Friedman opens the discussion by critiquing the current state of the US-China trade relationship, emphasizing the incoherence and unpredictability of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

Tom Friedman [01:02]: "You cannot make a coherent argument for an incoherent policy...What we are right now, as I write this on Monday, April 14, is an all-out trade war with China."

Friedman highlights how the abrupt and inconsistent tariff policies have not only strained economic relations but also led to retaliations from China, exacerbating the conflict.

2. The Washington Consensus on China

Ezra Klein probes into the bipartisan agreement in Washington regarding China, questioning its rigidity and the lack of diverse perspectives.

Tom Friedman [07:44]: "China is a rising power. We've made a terrible mistake in letting them rise...a new foreign enemy in Washington."

Friedman expresses concern over the hardened consensus that views China strictly as an adversary, limiting policy flexibility and stifling constructive dialogue.

3. Tom Friedman’s Critique of US Policy

Friedman critiques both Republican and Democratic approaches, arguing that the current policies are reactionary rather than strategic, leading to diminished trust and weakened alliances.

Tom Friedman [27:07]: "Yes."

He underscores the lack of a comprehensive strategy to build a robust industrial base in the US, which is crucial for competing with China in future-centric industries like AI and renewable energy.

4. The Role of Industrial Ecosystems and Technology

The conversation delves into the importance of developing a strong industrial ecosystem in the US to match China’s advancements, particularly in areas such as electric vehicles (EVs), artificial intelligence (AI), and autonomous driving.

Tom Friedman [17:46]: "China realized it could not compete with combustion vehicles with America, and so it took the decision to leapfrog them right to EVs and ultimately autonomous driving cars."

Friedman emphasizes the need for the US to invest in these critical sectors to maintain technological leadership and economic competitiveness.

5. The Impact of Tariffs and Trade Strategies

Ezra and Tom discuss the effectiveness of tariffs as a tool for reshoring manufacturing and the unintended consequences of such policies, including market volatility and strained international relations.

Tom Friedman [36:22]: "If that is your theory, then go ahead, put all the tariffs 1,000% on China... But these guys are entirely first-order thinkers."

Friedman argues that without a clear post-tariff strategy, the tariffs merely serve as a temporary setback without addressing the underlying competitive disadvantages faced by the US.

6. The Future of US-China Relations

Friedman presents a vision where collaboration between the US and China is essential for addressing global challenges such as AI management, climate change, and geopolitical stability. He warns against the escalating hostility that could lead to a bifurcated and unstable global order.

Tom Friedman [20:50]: "The only question is, will we have healthy interdependencies or unhealthy interdependencies? But we are going to rise together or we're going to fall together."

He stresses the importance of building a cooperative framework to manage the intertwined futures of both superpowers.

7. Critique of Trump's Trade Tactics

Ezra Klein and Tom Friedman critique the Trump administration’s aggressive tariff strategies, describing them as short-sighted and counterproductive.

Ezra Klein [55:02]: "When he pulled off the or did a 90 day pause, there was no deal... We have put the financial system under a lot of strain."

Friedman echoes these sentiments, highlighting how such tactics have eroded trust and compromised the US’s ability to leverage its alliances effectively.

8. Recommendations for a Sustainable Approach

Friedman advocates for a balanced and strategic approach to US-China relations, emphasizing joint ventures, building domestic supply chains, and leveraging alliances to create a united front against China's market dominance.

Tom Friedman [53:14]: "You have to leaven out your economy. To be retired in China is to get like a $5 a month pension."

He suggests that the US should focus on reducing its dependency on China by fostering domestic industries and collaborating with allies to implement long-term, gradual tariff increases paired with substantial investments in critical sectors.

9. The Importance of Trust and Collaboration

The dialogue concludes with a strong call for rebuilding trust and fostering collaboration between the US and China to navigate the complexities of modern global challenges.

Tom Friedman [67:10]: "I'm trying to hold a mirror up of what it looks like to be serious about that 21st century ecosystem. And I'm doing it for my kids and my grandkids."

Friedman emphasizes the necessity of partnership over antagonism to ensure global stability and prosperity.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

Tom Friedman [01:02]: "You cannot make a coherent argument for an incoherent policy."
Ezra Klein [07:44]: "How would you describe the bipartisan Washington consensus on China?"
Tom Friedman [17:46]: "China realized it could not compete with combustion vehicles with America, and so it took the decision to leapfrog them right to EVs and ultimately autonomous driving cars."
Tom Friedman [20:50]: "The only question is, will we have healthy interdependencies or unhealthy interdependencies? But we are going to rise together or we're going to fall together."
Tom Friedman [36:22]: "If that is your theory, then go ahead, put all the tariffs 1,000% on China."
Ezra Klein [55:02]: "We have put the financial system under a lot of strain."
Tom Friedman [53:14]: "You have to leaven out your economy. To be retired in China is to get like a $5 a month pension."
Tom Friedman [67:10]: "I'm trying to hold a mirror up of what it looks like to be serious about that 21st century ecosystem."

Concluding Insights

The episode offers a critical examination of the US’s current stance towards China, highlighting the pitfalls of an overly antagonistic approach and the need for strategic collaboration. Tom Friedman’s perspectives underscore the complexity of the US-China relationship and the imperative for policies that balance competition with constructive engagement to foster global stability and technological advancement.

Produced by: Roland Hu
Fact-Checking by: Michelle Harris, Mary March Locker, Kate Sinclair
Mixing by: Isaac Jones with Aman Sahota and Afim Shapiro
Executive Producer: Claire Gordon
Original Music by: Pat McCusker
Audience Strategy: Christina Samulewki and Shannon Busta
Special Thanks: Zoe Zhong Yin Lu, Kyle Chan, and Matt Sheehan