Podcast Summary: The Find Out Podcast

Episode: "How Is The Economy Really Doing?"

Date: February 3, 2026
Guests: Tim (Host), Rich (Host), Zach (Host), Justin Wolfers (Economist)

Overview

This episode tackles the real state of the U.S. economy during Trump’s second term, featuring a candid and often humorous interview with acclaimed economist Justin Wolfers. The hosts challenge political narratives, ask how everyday Americans are faring, and dig deep into economic myths, policies, and anxieties gripping the country in 2026. Wolfers provides clear-eyed context for headline stats, exposes common myths around trickle-down economics, and ultimately urges a renewed focus on the foundational institutions underlying American prosperity.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. State of the Economy: The B Minus Debate

• Initial Grade: Justin Wolfers recently graded the U.S. economy a "B minus," generating debate on what that really means in today's context.
  • Wolfers' Rationale:
    • The economy inherited at the start of Trump’s second term was "in pretty good shape" (01:43).
    • "A slowly rising unemployment rate is worse than it ought to be… Inflation hasn’t come down as quickly as we might have hoped… The President relentlessly lies about this." (03:47)
    • Government deficit spending is propping up a “B minus” economy: "A huge amount of government money is supporting what at the moment is a B minus economy." (05:23)
  • Grade Inflation Joke: American grading inflation means a B minus isn’t what it used to be—“In your age, you might have called it the gentleman C.” (07:04)

2. Rising Prices, Tariffs, and Policy Failures

• Tariffs as a Regressive Tax:
  • Wolfers explains the flawed logic: "A giant tax increase on the American consumers in the form of tariffs is not the best way to lower prices." (07:43)
  • U.S. producers match price increases, hurting consumers across the board. (08:27)
  • Tariffs and insurance premiums are rising, while attacks on the Federal Reserve stoke inflation further. (08:51)
  • Memorable Quote: "Pretty much everything this bloke has done... ends up being something that would raise prices rather than lower them." (09:31)

3. How Does the Average American Feel?

• Consumer Confidence Hits All-Time Lows:
  • University of Michigan’s own consumer confidence survey shows, "Consumer confidence right now is at the lowest level it’s ever been… People feel more miserable [now] than in 2020 or 2008." (10:03–11:13)
  • Policy Trust Collapse: "The share of Americans who rate the quality of our macroeconomic policy as poor has never been higher." (12:03)
• Implication: Disillusionment with leadership is not just a civic problem, it's bad economics—as it undermines long-term investments by individuals.

4. Trickle-Down Economics Debunked (Again)

• Historic Trends: "Trump’s tax bill was the single biggest redistribution from poor to rich in a single bill in American history… Largest redistribution in American history." (13:03)
• Tariffs as “Screw the Poor” Tax: Tariffs hit low- and middle-income Americans harder, providing no benefit to working folks. (13:03–15:04)
• Why Do People Still Buy In?
  • Despite clear evidence it doesn’t work, “Trickle-down” persists as a narrative.
  • Wolfers: “Turns out when sharing is optional, they often choose not to do it.” (16:17)
  • Political reflex for the rich, with little attempt to justify it anymore. (16:30)

5. Economic Luck, Timing, and Party Messaging

• Is It Luck or Policy?
  • The cyclical pattern: Democrats inherit crises, dig out of them, and appear to underperform due to lagging perception. Republicans often blamed less because of timing. (17:36–18:20)
  • Wolfers: “We don’t have enough data to say anything particularly clear about this.” (19:10)

6. Deficits, Debt, and “Fiscal Responsibility” Myths

• Who Really Bloats the Deficit?
  • "Reagan blew out the deficit. Bush blew out the deficit. Trump blew out the deficit… The idea that Republicans are the party of fiscal responsibility has not been true for a single day of my life." (19:48–20:23)
• Debt Spiral Politics:
  • New dynamic: run up deficits so the other party can’t spend—deliberate political strategy since the Bush era. (24:00–25:30)
  • Wolfers: "Every dollar I spend is a dollar less for them to spend." (26:00)

7. What Happens If We Don’t Address the Debt?

• Are We Greece or Japan?
  • "Japan’s debt is basically double ours. Nothing bad's happened to Japan… But it could also go bad fast, as in Greece or Argentina." (31:42)
  • U.S. is "miles away" from a fiscal collapse, but continuing to run up debt limits the ability to respond to future crises. (34:26)

8. Debt as Investment vs. Frat-House Beer

• Good vs. Bad Borrowing Analogy:
  • Borrowing for a high-return investment (e.g. education, infrastructure) makes sense.
  • "Borrowing $40,000 to spend on beer while doing nothing to raise your future purchasing power is a really bad idea." (36:23)
  • Wolfers is skeptical that current deficits are making worthwhile investments. (38:12)

9. Tariffs, Corporate Taxes & Industrial Policy Nuances

• Tariffs: Wolfers disagrees with most tactical tariffs—there’s little evidence they work as intended, and current policy is erratic and non-strategic. (40:18–44:48)
• Carrots vs. Sticks: Incentivizing (e.g. the CHIPS Act), not threatening, is typically more effective at reshoring business. (45:52)
• On Factory Jobs & Nostalgia:
  • "Factory jobs are what rich people think poor people want." (46:35)
  • Most workers want better for their children—service sector jobs are valuable and should not be romanticized less than manufacturing. (48:11)

10. Core Prescription: The Role of Institutions

• The Real Key to Prosperity:
  • Rich countries are built on strong institutions—contract law, rule of law, property rights, an independent central bank, and functional democracy. (50:52–54:00)
  • Current threats: Erosion of democratic norms, cronyism, leader-first over rule-based governance.
  • Wolfers: "Perhaps the greatest economic flaw of the current President is an attempt to overturn an election… We shouldn’t even be at a point where that’s a question." (52:24)
  • Rebuilding and protecting these institutions is the real foundation for American prosperity.

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On Grade Inflation and Economic Grades
  "When I say B minus, I mean taking full account of American grade inflation and the fact that we’re all special today."
  —Justin Wolfers (05:44)

• Tariffs as ‘Screw the Poor’ Tax
  "Tariffs are what we call a regressive tax. If you want simpler language, it’s called a screw the poor tax."
  —Justin Wolfers (14:21)

• On Trickle-Down Economics
  "Turns out when you find ways for the rich to get rich, the rich get rich. Turns out when sharing is optional, they often choose not to do it."
  —Justin Wolfers (16:17)

• On Political Strategy with Deficits
  "Every dollar I spend is a dollar less for them to spend… Trump is just trying to make sure there’s no money left for the next Democrat."
  —Justin Wolfers (25:38)

• Are We Like Japan or Greece?
  "Japan’s debt is basically double ours. Nothing bad’s happened to Japan… A different answer is lots of things turn to shit. We’ve seen this happen in countries like Greece, in countries like Argentina and so on."
  —Justin Wolfers (31:42)

• On Factory vs. Service Jobs
  "Factory jobs are what rich people think poor people want… I have no particular sympathy for saying we need to save these jobs rather than others… Service sector work is noble."
  —Justin Wolfers (46:35–48:11)

• On Institutions as the Heart of Prosperity
  "The answer appears to be that what matters is what we call institutions… My greatest fear is that what has been undermined more than any news story we’ve talked about, is those foundations in the United States."
  —Justin Wolfers (50:52–54:00)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 01:43 — Justin Wolfers on grading the economy, what’s working and what’s not
• 03:47 — Reality of jobs, inflation, and political spin
• 05:44 — What does a “B minus” mean in 2026 America?
• 09:31 — Why Trump’s price-lowering promises have failed
• 10:03 — Consumer confidence and what Americans really feel
• 13:03 — How Trump’s tax and tariff policies redistribute wealth
• 16:17 — Why trickle-down still doesn’t work
• 19:48 — The “fiscal responsibility” myth
• 24:00 — Deficit as partisan political weapon
• 31:42 — U.S. debt: Are we in danger? Japan vs. Greece as models
• 38:12 — Are we borrowing for the future or current consumption?
• 46:35 — Romanticizing factory jobs vs. today’s realities
• 50:52 — Institutions: the real driver of prosperity
• 52:24 — The economic and democratic dangers of eroding institutions

Tone and Personality

• Candid: Direct and no-nonsense economic analysis with regular use of humor and strong language.
• Irreverent: Frequent jokes about grade inflation, golden dicks, and hugging for deficit reduction.
• Empathetic: Real concern for everyday Americans and their struggles, with a focus on honest, practical answers.
• Collaborative: A genuine attempt by hosts and guest to create a space for economic understanding without tribalism or echo chambers.

Final Reflection

Justin Wolfers encourages listeners to look beyond the day-to-day chaos and partisan back-and-forth, focusing instead on the fundamental institutions that have historically made America prosperous. The episode debunks economic myths, exposes politically motivated narratives, and highlights the importance of trust, cooperation, and honest governance in building a stable economy for all.

For more, follow @JustinWolfers on major socials—or just tune into The Find Out Podcast for more unvarnished talk on America in the Trump era.