The Find Out Podcast

Episode: The 2025 Election Prediction Show

Date: November 4, 2025
Host: Find Out Podcast (Zach, Tim, Chris, Earl, Rich)

Overview

This high-energy, irreverent episode of The Find Out Podcast digs into 2025’s critical election night, with a mix of sharp, left-wing commentary and plenty of humor. The crew analyzes major races in New York, New Jersey, Virginia, and California, contextualizes the 2025 government shutdown and GOP SNAP cuts under Trump’s second term, and riffs candidly on the wider American political landscape. The heart of the show: predictions, margins, what’s at stake, and real talk about organizing and democratic turnout.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Government Shutdown & SNAP Cuts (00:34–08:08)

• Breaking News: Trump administration is only partially funding SNAP (food stamps) in November, using it as a bargaining chip in the shutdown.

  “They are withholding food benefits from people to try to get Democrats back to the table—a move as cruel as it sounds.” — Zach (00:34)

• Federal Worker Impact: Around 1.3 million federal employees are either working or furloughed without pay, creating a cascading crisis, including food insecurity.

• Podcast’s Action: Partnership with The Labor Force to raise money for grocery gift cards for unpaid federal employees (thelaborforce.org/findout).

• Economic Toll: With SNAP and federal employee spending sharply down, local economies and grocery stores also take a hit, leading to layoffs—another round of people needing assistance:

  “If you cut food insecurity benefits, SNAP benefits, then you have government employees, including military families with hungry children.” — Earl (03:57)

• Right-Wing Takes & Response:

  • MAGA TikTokers believe fewer people on food stamps = cheaper groceries.
  • Hosts refute with macroeconomic logic, criticize right-wing “basic logic” failures.

• Fraud Myths Debunked: SNAP fraud/waste rate is about 1%.

• SNAP recipients work: About 80% of able-bodied SNAP recipients are working; many are disabled or can’t work.

The “Run Government Like a Business” Myth (08:18–09:50)

• Jokes about Trump’s business failings (“You elected the guy who bankrupted casinos” — Tim, 08:26).
• Mixed feelings about the principle—“run the government like a business”—but general dismay at Trump as the CEO.
• Treasury Secretary admits some sectors are in recession, signaling rough economic waters ahead.

Race-by-Race Predictions & Political Analysis

1. New York City Mayoral Race

Zach, Chris, Tim, Earl, Rich
(09:50–18:16)

• Main Candidates: Mamdani (progressive), Andrew Cuomo (with dubious Trump endorsement), Curtis Sliwa (colorful longshot).

• Consensus: Mamdani has it in the bag, predicted margin over 10–15 points.

  “He literally led a march across the Brooklyn Bridge today… with hundreds of people. Cuomo has no operation. Sliwa’s just running around with the cats and the beret.” — Zach (11:18)

• Anecdotes & Memes: Sliwa's persona as head of Guardian Angels, and New York Post’s claim that a million New Yorkers would flee if Mamdani wins (mocked as absurd).

• Systemic Pushback:

  “When a system is exposed to radical change, it defends itself like the human body does with antibodies… It’s all just them—the people who benefit from the system—using every single thing at their disposal to attack this intrusive idea of change that Mamdani represents.” — Rich (16:05)

• If Mamdani Succeeds… Systemic fear is that his success will lead to progressive momentum across the country.

2. New Jersey Governor’s Race

Zach, Chris, Tim, Earl, Rich
(18:16–27:59)

• Main Candidates: Mikie Sherrill (Dem), Jack Ciattarelli (“MAGA crazy man”).

• Cheryl leads polling by ~3 pts—race within margin of error.

  “If she doesn’t do better than Harris did [in ‘24], and Harris did poorly in New Jersey, that is a very bad sign.” — Chris (20:27)

• Bellwether Value: Margin is key—not just victory, but how strong it is, to judge prevailing winds against Trump.

• Voter Behavior to Watch: Independents and Latino voters, especially in swing counties like Passaic.

  “Behavior of independent voters and Latino voters… will be really telling in what we can look for in the midterm elections.” — Rich (21:29)

• Historical Trends: Three consecutive Dem governors would be a big historical anomaly since the 1960s.

• Overall Prediction: Sherrill likely to win, margins projected in the 3–6 point range.

3. Polling, 538 & Nate Silver’s Fall

(24:31–27:59)

• Discussion on the collapse in reliability of polling and Nate Silver’s accuracy, fall from grace:

  “Whatever Nate Silver says, you know the opposite is going to happen.” — Zach (26:37)

• Polling methodology and representative sampling now deeply flawed with cell phones and changing habits.

4. Virginia Governor’s Race

Zach, Chris, Tim, Earl
(27:59–32:28)

• Main Candidates: Abigail Spanberger (Dem), Earle Sears (Trumpist hard-right).

• Spanberger up around 9 points in polls.

• Attorney General race hotly contested—if margin falls below 9 points, Dems may lose lower-ticket races.

  “Defense contractors and the people you think of as traditionally Republican-leaning are also affected by the shutdown... due to Trump’s insistence that we starve little kids, Virginia is certainly going to give Democrats a boost this year.” — Earl (29:54)

• Key Point: VA’s heavy federal workforce, deeply unhappy with Trump shutdown, could swing races for Dems.

• Strategic Importance: If Spanberger wins big, possible Dem gerrymander to secure another Congressional seat.

5. California Proposition 50 (Gerrymander Initiative)

(32:29–35:47)

• Background: Prop 50 allows Dem gerrymandering for federal seats—a reversal.
• Status: Republican spending dried up; polling as high as +18 for “Yes.”

  “If he clears 20 points on this thing, like… he’s at the top of the list [for president in 2028].” — Zach (34:33)

• Gavin Newsom’s 2028 Ambitions: Hosts debate whether Newsom’s denial of presidential ambition is convincing.

  “I like the reluctant leader… who feels called to serve, who feels like they don’t have a choice but to help fix problems… though I think Gavin Newsom is faking it, I will give him credit for at least trying.” — Earl (33:16)

Next Political Battles: Trump, ICE, & Urban Boogeymen

(35:47–39:33)

• Trump’s Likely Tactics After Election Night:

  • Expecting Trump to target NYC and Mamdani, making him a boogeyman, using ICE as a weapon, and trying to turn local progressive wins into a national “socialist threat.”
  • Trump’s obsession with NYC—his home turf—motivates much of his antagonism.

• Potential Backlash: If Trump’s administration sends ICE into NYC, it could backfire—public backlash has grown since similar attempts in LA and Chicago.

  “If Memdani’s smart, he’ll play it right. But I think Trump’s going to test him.” — Zach (37:27)

Media Critique: Joe Rogan & Right-Wing Info Bubbles

(39:33–41:36)

• Rogan’s Influence: Hosts lament Rogan’s massive reach despite lack of research or fact-checking.

  “The craziest thing is that that guy has the biggest audience in the entire United States on news… He doesn’t do a single bit of research.” — Zach (40:36)

• General concern over misinformation, gullibility, and AI’s threat to truth in political discourse.

COVID, Ivermectin, and Culture War

(41:36–44:25)

• Satirical riff on right-wing COVID myths—especially use of Ivermectin—contrasted with real solutions like Paxlovid.
• Personal stories about COVID, vaccines, and commentary on the spread of anti-science beliefs.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Logic Deficit:
  “Everyone should have to take an Econ 101 class in high school.” — Zach (03:47)
• On Class and SNAP:
  “You get to care about what SNAP recipients spend their money on when you care what billionaires do with their Trump tax cut.” — Zach (07:04)
• Nate Silver’s Decline:
  “Whatever Nate Silver says, you know the opposite is going to happen.” — Zach (26:37)
• On Newsom and Leadership:
  “I like the reluctant leader… who feels called to serve… though I think Gavin Newsom is faking it, I will give him credit for at least trying.” — Earl (33:16)
• ICE as Authoritarian Tool:
  “Donald Trump’s not a multitasker so I think he's gonna choose one [target: Mamdani or Newsom].” — Earl (35:47)

Election Night Strategy: Why Margins Matter

(45:12–48:40)

• Encouragement for Dem turnout everywhere, even “safe” races, as margins send crucial signals on shutdown and public mood.

  “Margins matter. They matter a lot. Especially for signals to the other side.” — Zach (45:28)

• Reminders on voting, staying in line, and helping others get to the polls.

Closing: Stolen Election Lies & GOP Response

(48:41–52:44)

• Trump expected to deploy “stolen election” rhetoric and legal intimidation in response to losses; now with more federal power and fewer constraints.

  “The stolen election lie is Trump’s response to every loss. And now he’s got levers of power… greater than ever before.” — Earl (49:09)

• Trump sending “election observers” to Dem-run states for intimidation.

Final Call & “Election Night Live” Announcement

(51:44–end)

• Listeners invited to join a special live YouTube election night event with the whole Find Out team for returns, Q&A, and real-time reactions (“Who wants to listen to MSNBC or CNN at this point?” — Zach, 51:44).
• Show plugs: merch (union made), supporting the podcast, Thursday post-election recap.

Timestamps for Key Segments

• SNAP Cuts & Shutdown: 00:34–08:08
• NYC Mayoral Race (Mamdani): 09:50–18:16
• NJ Governor’s Race: 18:16–27:59
• Polling & Nate Silver: 24:31–27:59
• Virginia Races: 27:59–32:28
• California Prop 50 & Newsom: 32:29–35:47
• Trump’s Post-Election Moves: 35:47–39:33
• Media/Misinformation: 39:33–41:36
• COVID Culture Wars: 41:36–44:25
• Turnout & Margins: 45:12–48:40
• Trump’s “Stolen Election” Playbook: 48:41–52:44
• YouTube Election Night & Outro: 51:44–end

Tone: Candid, laugh-out-loud irreverent, anti-MAGA, with frequent F-bombs, and heavy on both practical advice and inside-baseball progressive strategy.

Summary Takeaway

If the “radical left” is just a bunch of funny, passionate political nerds trying to save democracy (and fighting for bread-and-butter policy), the Find Out crew is it—reminding their audience why local races matter, why margins are crucial, and that in 2025, vigilance (and turnout) are everything.