The 2025 Election Prediction Show

Summary

The Find Out Podcast

Episode: The 2025 Election Prediction Show

Date: November 4, 2025
Host: Find Out Podcast (Zach, Tim, Chris, Earl, Rich)

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Overview

This high-energy, irreverent episode of The Find Out Podcast digs into 2025’s critical election night, with a mix of sharp, left-wing commentary and plenty of humor. The crew analyzes major races in New York, New Jersey, Virginia, and California, contextualizes the 2025 government shutdown and GOP SNAP cuts under Trump’s second term, and riffs candidly on the wider American political landscape. The heart of the show: predictions, margins, what’s at stake, and real talk about organizing and democratic turnout.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Government Shutdown & SNAP Cuts (00:34–08:08)

• Breaking News: Trump administration is only partially funding SNAP (food stamps) in November, using it as a bargaining chip in the shutdown.

  “They are withholding food benefits from people to try to get Democrats back to the table—a move as cruel as it sounds.” — Zach (00:34)

• Federal Worker Impact: Around 1.3 million federal employees are either working or furloughed without pay, creating a cascading crisis, including food insecurity.

• Podcast’s Action: Partnership with The Labor Force to raise money for grocery gift cards for unpaid federal employees (thelaborforce.org/findout).

• Economic Toll: With SNAP and federal employee spending sharply down, local economies and grocery stores also take a hit, leading to layoffs—another round of people needing assistance:

  “If you cut food insecurity benefits, SNAP benefits, then you have government employees, including military families with hungry children.” — Earl (03:57)

• Right-Wing Takes & Response:

  • MAGA TikTokers believe fewer people on food stamps = cheaper groceries.
  • Hosts refute with macroeconomic logic, criticize right-wing “basic logic” failures.

• Fraud Myths Debunked: SNAP fraud/waste rate is about 1%.

• SNAP recipients work: About 80% of able-bodied SNAP recipients are working; many are disabled or can’t work.

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The “Run Government Like a Business” Myth (08:18–09:50)

• Jokes about Trump’s business failings (“You elected the guy who bankrupted casinos” — Tim, 08:26).
• Mixed feelings about the principle—“run the government like a business”—but general dismay at Trump as the CEO.
• Treasury Secretary admits some sectors are in recession, signaling rough economic waters ahead.

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Race-by-Race Predictions & Political Analysis

1. New York City Mayoral Race

Zach, Chris, Tim, Earl, Rich
(09:50–18:16)

• Main Candidates: Mamdani (progressive), Andrew Cuomo (with dubious Trump endorsement), Curtis Sliwa (colorful longshot).

• Consensus: Mamdani has it in the bag, predicted margin over 10–15 points.

  “He literally led a march across the Brooklyn Bridge today… with hundreds of people. Cuomo has no operation. Sliwa’s just running around with the cats and the beret.” — Zach (11:18)

• Anecdotes & Memes: Sliwa's persona as head of Guardian Angels, and New York Post’s claim that a million New Yorkers would flee if Mamdani wins (mocked as absurd).

• Systemic Pushback:

  “When a system is exposed to radical change, it defends itself like the human body does with antibodies… It’s all just them—the people who benefit from the system—using every single thing at their disposal to attack this intrusive idea of change that Mamdani represents.” — Rich (16:05)

• If Mamdani Succeeds… Systemic fear is that his success will lead to progressive momentum across the country.

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2. New Jersey Governor’s Race

Zach, Chris, Tim, Earl, Rich
(18:16–27:59)

• Main Candidates: Mikie Sherrill (Dem), Jack Ciattarelli (“MAGA crazy man”).

• Cheryl leads polling by ~3 pts—race within margin of error.

  “If she doesn’t do better than Harris did [in ‘24], and Harris did poorly in New Jersey, that is a very bad sign.” — Chris (20:27)

• Bellwether Value: Margin is key—not just victory, but how strong it is, to judge prevailing winds against Trump.

• Voter Behavior to Watch: Independents and Latino voters, especially in swing counties like Passaic.

  “Behavior of independent voters and Latino voters… will be really telling in what we can look for in the midterm elections.” — Rich (21:29)

• Historical Trends: Three consecutive Dem governors would be a big historical anomaly since the 1960s.

• Overall Prediction: Sherrill likely to win, margins projected in the 3–6 point range.

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3. Polling, 538 & Nate Silver’s Fall

(24:31–27:59)

• Discussion on the collapse in reliability of polling and Nate Silver’s accuracy, fall from grace:

  “Whatever Nate Silver says, you know the opposite is going to happen.” — Zach (26:37)

• Polling methodology and representative sampling now deeply flawed with cell phones and changing habits.

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4. Virginia Governor’s Race

Zach, Chris, Tim, Earl
(27:59–32:28)

• Main Candidates: Abigail Spanberger (Dem), Earle Sears (Trumpist hard-right).

• Spanberger up around 9 points in polls.

• Attorney General race hotly contested—if margin falls below 9 points, Dems may lose lower-ticket races.

  “Defense contractors and the people you think of as traditionally Republican-leaning are also affected by the shutdown... due to Trump’s insistence that we starve little kids, Virginia is certainly going to give Democrats a boost this year.” — Earl (29:54)

• Key Point: VA’s heavy federal workforce, deeply unhappy with Trump shutdown, could swing races for Dems.

• Strategic Importance: If Spanberger wins big, possible Dem gerrymander to secure another Congressional seat.

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5. California Proposition 50 (Gerrymander Initiative)

(32:29–35:47)

• Background: Prop 50 allows Dem gerrymandering for federal seats—a reversal.
• Status: Republican spending dried up; polling as high as +18 for “Yes.”

  “If he clears 20 points on this thing, like… he’s at the top of the list [for president in 2028].” — Zach (34:33)

• Gavin Newsom’s 2028 Ambitions: Hosts debate whether Newsom’s denial of presidential ambition is convincing.

  “I like the reluctant leader… who feels called to serve, who feels like they don’t have a choice but to help fix problems… though I think Gavin Newsom is faking it, I will give him credit for at least trying.” — Earl (33:16)

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Next Political Battles: Trump, ICE, & Urban Boogeymen

(35:47–39:33)

• Trump’s Likely Tactics After Election Night:

  • Expecting Trump to target NYC and Mamdani, making him a boogeyman, using ICE as a weapon, and trying to turn local progressive wins into a national “socialist threat.”
  • Trump’s obsession with NYC—his home turf—motivates much of his antagonism.

• Potential Backlash: If Trump’s administration sends ICE into NYC, it could backfire—public backlash has grown since similar attempts in LA and Chicago.

  “If Memdani’s smart, he’ll play it right. But I think Trump’s going to test him.” — Zach (37:27)

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Media Critique: Joe Rogan & Right-Wing Info Bubbles

(39:33–41:36)

• Rogan’s Influence: Hosts lament Rogan’s massive reach despite lack of research or fact-checking.

  “The craziest thing is that that guy has the biggest audience in the entire United States on news… He doesn’t do a single bit of research.” — Zach (40:36)

• General concern over misinformation, gullibility, and AI’s threat to truth in political discourse.

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COVID, Ivermectin, and Culture War

(41:36–44:25)

• Satirical riff on right-wing COVID myths—especially use of Ivermectin—contrasted with real solutions like Paxlovid.
• Personal stories about COVID, vaccines, and commentary on the spread of anti-science beliefs.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Logic Deficit:
  “Everyone should have to take an Econ 101 class in high school.” — Zach (03:47)
• On Class and SNAP:
  “You get to care about what SNAP recipients spend their money on when you care what billionaires do with their Trump tax cut.” — Zach (07:04)
• Nate Silver’s Decline:
  “Whatever Nate Silver says, you know the opposite is going to happen.” — Zach (26:37)
• On Newsom and Leadership:
  “I like the reluctant leader… who feels called to serve… though I think Gavin Newsom is faking it, I will give him credit for at least trying.” — Earl (33:16)
• ICE as Authoritarian Tool:
  “Donald Trump’s not a multitasker so I think he's gonna choose one [target: Mamdani or Newsom].” — Earl (35:47)

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Election Night Strategy: Why Margins Matter

(45:12–48:40)

• Encouragement for Dem turnout everywhere, even “safe” races, as margins send crucial signals on shutdown and public mood.

  “Margins matter. They matter a lot. Especially for signals to the other side.” — Zach (45:28)

• Reminders on voting, staying in line, and helping others get to the polls.

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Closing: Stolen Election Lies & GOP Response

(48:41–52:44)

• Trump expected to deploy “stolen election” rhetoric and legal intimidation in response to losses; now with more federal power and fewer constraints.

  “The stolen election lie is Trump’s response to every loss. And now he’s got levers of power… greater than ever before.” — Earl (49:09)

• Trump sending “election observers” to Dem-run states for intimidation.

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Final Call & “Election Night Live” Announcement

(51:44–end)

• Listeners invited to join a special live YouTube election night event with the whole Find Out team for returns, Q&A, and real-time reactions (“Who wants to listen to MSNBC or CNN at this point?” — Zach, 51:44).
• Show plugs: merch (union made), supporting the podcast, Thursday post-election recap.

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• SNAP Cuts & Shutdown: 00:34–08:08
• NYC Mayoral Race (Mamdani): 09:50–18:16
• NJ Governor’s Race: 18:16–27:59
• Polling & Nate Silver: 24:31–27:59
• Virginia Races: 27:59–32:28
• California Prop 50 & Newsom: 32:29–35:47
• Trump’s Post-Election Moves: 35:47–39:33
• Media/Misinformation: 39:33–41:36
• COVID Culture Wars: 41:36–44:25
• Turnout & Margins: 45:12–48:40
• Trump’s “Stolen Election” Playbook: 48:41–52:44
• YouTube Election Night & Outro: 51:44–end

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Tone: Candid, laugh-out-loud irreverent, anti-MAGA, with frequent F-bombs, and heavy on both practical advice and inside-baseball progressive strategy.

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Summary Takeaway

If the “radical left” is just a bunch of funny, passionate political nerds trying to save democracy (and fighting for bread-and-butter policy), the Find Out crew is it—reminding their audience why local races matter, why margins are crucial, and that in 2025, vigilance (and turnout) are everything.

Transcript

[Tim]

Foreign.

[Zach]

Hey everybody, welcome back to the Find out podcast and welcome to the 2025 election preview. We finally made it, guys. We have an election coming today. We are taping on on Monday, but I'm going to pretend like we're taping on Tuesday.

[Tim]

Swear to God. Got PTSD from you saying that.

[Zach]

I mean just wait until we when we're at 2026 election night, which will be start with thing before we dive into all the races we want to. There's a bit of breaking news and we want to announce an exciting partnership that we're doing. But the Trump administration just came out and said that they are only going to partially fund SNAP benefits in November even though they have an emergency fund that they actually tapped in 2019 to make sure that those benefits continue on for another two to three weeks while the, while the shutdown continues. So they are withholding food benefits from people to try to get Democrats back to the table, which is as cruel as it sounds. And we'll talk about this in a second. But it leads into our next piece which is, you know, with the government shutdown, federal employees have not been given paychecks, I think for at least two or three pay cycles now. And, and a lot of federal employees do not make a ton of money. And so they're having a lot of trouble right now paying bills and importantly feeding their families. You know, we've talked a lot about SNAP recipients potentially losing their funding, which is, which is devastating. But federal employees are also having the same situation. So we're actually working with a group called the Labor Force and we are trying to raise money to purchase grocery store gift cards for folks so that they can buy food, put food on their table. While Donald Trump and the Republicans hold the, the government hostage. Also, they could take away health care for millions of Americans. So, so right now the demand is actually quite huge that According to estimates, 70 730,000 federal employees are currently working without pay and another 670,000 federal workers are furloughed without pay. So that is what about 1.3 million Americans who are, are not getting the money that they deserve for working. So we are going to try to raise some money for them and make sure that they get the food that they need to survive. I mean, this seems like a very, very simple and the bare minimum that the government should be doing. So if you go to the labor force.org/find out that is the label, the labor force.org find out you can make a donation there and we'll make sure that we can distribute as many grocery store gift cards to federal employees so they can make sure they feed their families. So that if you could do that for us, everybody, we would appreciate it. But also we got to talk about on these SNAP benefits, just how devastating this is for local economies as well. Like, the fact is that none of this money is being given to SNAP recipients or furloughed federal work workers, which, which means grocery stores are not getting the money that they usually get, which means they're probably going to have to lay off people who then will need to rely on federal assistance. So it is, it is just Silly Tim. Silly Tim. Cruel, inhumane.

[Tim]

I saw a MAGA TikTok that was telling me that because there's going to be 40 million people who aren't using food stamps, groceries are going to be cheaper because there will be less people buying them.

[Zach]

Did somebody actually make libs?

[Chris]

That's like a big MAGA talking point right now.

[Tim]

Oh, my God, these people are so.

[Zach]

You know, we should have it. Everyone should have to take an Econ 101 class in high school. I know we, we talked about that months ago.

[Earl]

Right?

[Zach]

What was the class? And I think financial literacy was one of them.

[Earl]

But basic logic class. Just like if this, then that is, is a concept that I think that a lot of MAGA just does not understand. Like, if you don't have the federal workforce getting paid, then children go hungry. If you cut food insecurity benefits, SNAP benefits, then you have government employees, including military families with hungry children. Like, there are.

[Zach]

Right.

[Earl]

There are families right now where one spouse is deployed overseas, the other one is at home. 27% of military spouses work for the federal government. And if that family is used to having two incomes and right now they only have one, imagine being deployed, whether it's in a combat zone or not. Like, it could be in Korea, it could be a relatively cushy. Or Germany, like a relatively cushy deployment. But to know that your family back in the United States might be starving.

[Zach]

Yeah, but Chris Trump loves the troops. He loves the troops. He can't be doing this. That can't be right.

[Tim]

I had a piece of shit in my comment section tell me that the, the rate of starving children, like starving to death, is zero percent in the U.S. so that's okay. That's why it's okay.

[Chris]

So nobody starves.

[Tim]

Well, he, he claimed that that was why this was all okay, is because there's. They're not starving to death, they're just starving to hunger. And so that's why it's okay, got it. And I, I almost lost my.

[Zach]

Well, this is where the logic thing goes out the window, right? Like, because we didn't. The SNAP benefits haven't cut yet. So we haven't been starving yet. People though, actually there is a, there is a. That is actually not true. In the Big Bill, I believe there was about 130, $38 billion in cuts to SNAP benefits. So there are some cuts, but they have. So even if when the federal government opens, there are cuts and you know, this lie that able bodied Americans are just sitting at home watching Maury Povich and Price is Right and munching on Oreos and just living off the government does not exist in any meaningful manner. I think the fraud and waste in SNAP benefits is something like 1%. 1%, right, 1%. And as many people have pointed out, SNAP benefits, or essentially any benefits to poor and working class Americans, stimulates the economy because they need that money and they spend it. And on the opposite end of the spectrum, when you have billionaires getting tax cuts in the millions and billions of dollars, they just put it in their pocket because they can't spend any more money.

[Chris]

Yeah. You know, so I feel like the central problem here is most people don't know what the government does for them. So they just, they just wake up and go, whoops, this is a huge mistake. And it's like, you know, if they just had a basic understanding of what they're getting from the government, who's getting from the government and why and how it's all structured, they'd probably have a very different opin. But now it's like you just have to live in the hell that you've created by fucking voting this guy in. That's just how it is.

[Zach]

Well, and I think that there's the situations where people see like, quote, unquote, see their neighbors mooching and I think there's always a lot of assumptions in that stuff. You may not know that that person has a medical disability or a mental disability or, or something else. Also, like, I just, I just can't give a shit about this, like what they spend their money on. I just, I can't, I can't, I can't. I did a video where I said, I said you get to care about this, what SNAP benefit or SNAP recipients spend their money on. When you care what billionaires do with their Trump tax cut. And the answers that I've gotten, I mean, a lot of people liked it, but a lot of people were like, yeah, but that was their money they're getting back. And I'm like, what do you think SNAP benefits are like? It's the same thing. What is it? 80% of SNAP benefit able bodied SNAP recipients work. Like these people are the. It's like these MAGA guys are so close to the solution but so far away. It's like, yeah, we don't pay people enough in this country to work. That's why there are 42 million Americans on SNAP benefits or they are disabled and can't work. Do you want to cut their benefits as well? I'm, I'm confused. So I think you're right, Zach. It's just people don't know what the government does and they make assumptions because Republicans have been lying to them for a long time.

[Rich]

Yep.

[Chris]

They think it's just a bunch of free shit. And it's like, where do you think the government makes money from? It's from people working.

[Earl]

From you.

[Chris]

It's from you. We're not a business. I mean technically I guess we're structured somewhat like a business, but we're not actually selling anything. It's fucking taxes. Morons.

[Tim]

Well, that's why they elected Trump. They wanted to run the government like a business. And look at that. You elected the guy who bankrupted casinos.

[Earl]

Well done.

[Chris]

Yeah, and that's the thing that, because I'm one of those people where like I do think the government should be run like a business in some ways, but not by this particular businessman.

[Tim]

Like he's guy sucked at business.

[Chris]

He's destroying the whole fucking idea.

[Rich]

CEO, if you're going to run the country, like if you're going to run anything like a business, you need a good CEO.

[Tim]

We have just said that we're in a recession war. Morning. Based on the housing market. That was.

[Zach]

Oh yeah, the Treasury Secretary said that some sectors appear to be in a recession. And I saw a reporter, finance reporter, it might have been Carlos Quintana or somebody. It said it must be really, the meetings must be really bad and the underlying data must be really bad if they are even willing to admit that portions of the, of the economy are in a recession. You know, the lights, the, the red lights are screaming and you know, things are going to get bad pretty soon on the financial front. So it's, it's, it's tough. But anyways, let's do what we were supposed to do and let's talk about tonight's elections. We're going to talk about a few of them, the four real big ones that I think are happening and we're going to start because I choose. And I lived here. Live here. We're going to talk about the New York City mayoral race first. So the question is, does anybody actually think on this group that Mandani will lose?

[Chris]

Sleewa's gonna win.

[Tim]

I had money on Mamdani winning, so no.

[Earl]

Did you guys see the SNL Cold Open?

[Zach]

Yes.

[Chris]

It was so good.

[Zach]

It was really good. It was.

[Earl]

For anybody who hasn't watched it yet, I'm not gonna ruin it. Like, you need to go watch it.

[Tim]

But finish this first.

[Chris]

Yes, finish this first and go watch this. Yeah. Or come back to us when you're done.

[Zach]

I actually. There's been a lot. I. Look, Sliwa is just, you know, he's in the city and he hates Cuomo, so that's why he stayed in the race, which I. I respect. He is. But, like, there's so many, like, funny memes and like, all these people, these New York City people doing takes where they ask the two. They ask Mdani and Cuomo a question, and they ask SLA the same one. And he was like, I was stabbed in a subway car, 1981. No one came to get me. You know, he's got this whole. And you're like, what? So it's. It's at least made a little interesting, but he's entertaining. Here's another question for you guys. Does anyone think that Mamdani will win by less than 10 points?

[Chris]

No. Less than 20, though?

[Zach]

Yeah, I think.

[Tim]

Less than 20, I think.

[Chris]

Which is interesting because, like, I look at the betting market shit. And one of them, like, the over. Under was 24. And I'm like, there's no way.

[Zach]

Oh, under, Under. Under.

[Chris]

Yeah, exactly.

[Zach]

Under. I think.

[Earl]

You guys don't think that Donald Trump's endorsement of Andrew Cuomo isn't going to.

[Chris]

Like, help him out?

[Rich]

I didn't hear he did that. That's good. That's a game changer, you guys.

[Earl]

Sexual Assaulters United. I'm not sure what they' Super Pack.

[Zach]

Yeah. Is that a. Is that a support group that we don't know about?

[Tim]

Siu?

[Zach]

Well, I. I think I'm putting it. I'm putting the over under at 15. That's what I think. I just, you know, you see the city and, you know, I. I hate doing anecdotal, like. Like, reporting on this stuff, but, I mean, Mdani has an army. He literally led a march across, I think, the Brooklyn Bridge today. And it was. There were, like, hundreds of people, and there's not even Any voting today, it was just a rally.

[Tim]

And.

[Zach]

And it's a Monday morning. I mean, there I am getting phone called and texted and everything. Luckily, I already voted, so I could tell them to go to somebody else. Which, by the way, that's the trick, guys. If you don't want the text, tell them you voted and they'll leave you alone because they mark you as as done. But Cuomo has no operation. Slee was just running around with the cats and the beret and doing whatever and, you know, I like cat. No, no, I. I love cats, but I. You know, he has 19 in an apartment, which I would argue it's something like that.

[Rich]

Is that why he's running for mayor? So that he can change the. Like, change the code to allow it?

[Zach]

My. Well, my guess is Gracie Mansion has a lot more space than the apartment he lives in, so maybe that's it. He just needs an expanded footprint, a lot of the cats.

[Rich]

He keeps getting letters from his landlord saying, dude, it's three. Three is the cap.

[Zach]

Yeah, but here's the deal.

[Earl]

Isn't he.

[Zach]

He's like the head of the Guardian Angels, right? So, like, no one's gonna mess with him. So he's got 19 cats in his apartment also. No one ever checks that here, but yeah. So I think. I think it's going to be a big win. It's so funny. Like, the Times even wrote this obnoxious article the other day about, like, some Memdani supporters are getting worried about his experience. And my answer to that is, Eric Adams was very experienced. He's a state senator. He was a Brooklyn Borough president. He was an NYPD officer. How did all that experience go in the city?

[Chris]

Right?

[Zach]

I mean, it's not great.

[Chris]

I. I have. Mike, like, here's. I mean, I've said it in all my videos about Bom Donnie. Like, I want him to win. I'm not confident he'll do well. Not because necessarily the experience, just because he's. He doesn't know. I don't think he understands systematically what he's up against to enact some of the changes he wants to do. Like, I agree with everything he wants to try. The odds he'll get to do them very low. And that's, I think, the thing that a lot of people are probably, like, the people on the fence are probably looking at it and go, I mean, is he going to do any of this? I don't know, because it's like, a lot of. It's just not in his control. Like, the MTA he doesn't control the mta. The state does. Like, it's all this different shit where it's like, you know, it's nice ideas, but can you actually do it? We'll see.

[Zach]

So one thing in particular, I think that will help him is that there are ballot initiatives to make building housing easier. And I think that most of those are likely to win. And a lot of people are against them because they're like, well, Eric Adams is going to put all these people in there. So I'm not voting for that. I'm like, well, he's not going to be mayor anymore. It will actually be Mamdani. So there are some levers. But I agree, like, the MTA stuff is owned by the state, so he has to work Kathy Hochul. But I think, like, what he needs to do is really hire some very smart, progressive bureaucrats who actually know how to run the levers of the city. I mean, talk about Brad Lander and some other folks, because Adams just put cronies in there, and then they all got indicted for random shit. So we have had nobody essentially, for the last two years running anything that's not true.

[Earl]

Some of them quit.

[Zach]

To. Two of them actually got married so that they. To try to get away from ratting on each other.

[Tim]

Really nice.

[Zach]

Oh, yeah, Yeah. I don't know if that's actually legal, like, but they did do it all of a sudden. They had, like, been dating for years, and then magically they, like, they, like, eloped on a weekend before they both got indicted or something like that, or one of them got indicted. I can't keep track of all the indictments because they're all indicted. So anyways, it will be a new day in New York City, I think. So you know, folks, let us know what you think, how much you think when me, Donnie, will win by. Or if you think that Cuomo will come back and surprise us all, which definitely.

[Rich]

I saw the New York Post, I think, had a. Had an article today, and it was like, man, the system is really allergic to this treatment because they said that a million New Yorkers were ready to flee if. Mom.

[Tim]

Donnie.

[Rich]

Like a million, million million people like.

[Chris]

You just one seventh.

[Rich]

You just make up that number on the spot.

[Zach]

So, like, 1 8th time, right? Yeah, well, actually, I've saw some people saying, good leave. That means there'll be more housing and the prices will go down.

[Rich]

The they.

[Zach]

This is always a threat and never happens because it's. It's. Again, it's a millionaire's tax. You have to Make a million dollars a year. And then the tax is all of the money above a million dollars that you make. And it's something like the average person who would qualify for it pays for like $2,000 or something like that. Like to have someone who makes a million dollars.

[Rich]

I'm.

[Zach]

Yeah.

[Earl]

Our friend Nathan June has done some really good videos because he is a 1 percenter, self described, right. And he's been like sharing how much he makes, how much he's already paying in little. This so called millionaires tax would impact him. It isn't consequential in any way.

[Rich]

No, the whole like I'm gonna leave thing, like if that, if that was a thing, I would be in Canada because I was gonna leave after bush won in 2000 and in 2004 and I never moved to Canada. So I admit it. No, the whole thing though, it actually reminds me, I heard like several years ago I was talking to, I guess, sort of like a mentor, I guess, and he said that when a system is exposed to any kind of radical change, the system defends itself like the human body does with antibodies. And he said even, even how like your, your antibodies can attack your own joints, it can attack like autoimmune diseases. Like even healthy change is fought. And when you look at it, when you look at it through that lens and you look at who is fighting back and you see, okay, so the very wealthy people who have grifted off of the economy for decades and all of the people who are protecting the very wealthy people and all the people who own the media outlets that are owned by the, these ultra wealthy people, it's all just them. Like that's, that is the system. They're, they are the people who benefit from the system. And, and they are using every single thing at their disposal to attack this intrusive idea of change that, that Mamdani represents. And because I get it, like if you, if you say, well, all the wealthy people are going to leave and that's their job creators like that is built on this, this myth that has been perpetuated since the 80s of trickle down supply side Reaganomic bullshit. And, and all of those people who were all children of that philosophy, including people like Alan Greenspan, I mean they are the people who run everything in the financial systems in the United States right now. And they have since really since the 90s. And those are the people who are going to personally lose some money. They'll still be fine just like they were before the 80s. They'll still be very wealthy. They'll just be a little bit less wealthy and that change is still too much for them to, to suffer and it's embarrassing.

[Zach]

Sure is. You know, and I think, but I think also if, if I know, well, we'll leave it at this. It's like they are scared that he'll be successful. Yeah, right. Because if he is successful and he shows that there is a different way to do this, then you know, other states are going to catch fire, the whole thing. And so, you know, it'll be really interesting to see. I really hope that, like I said, he hires some smart bureaucrats because government, whether you're at the federal, state or city level, is very, very difficult if you do not understand it. And he frankly doesn't have years to figure it out. So he's a smart guy, you know, he's heard it loud and clear. So we'll, it'll be really interesting to see what happens. But yeah, over, under on 15 points, I think. Let me know people, what you think. Let's just keep going. Well, we'll go south on this one and then we'll go further south. So New Jersey is probably the toughest race of the evening. So this will be Mikey Cheryl against Jack. What is it, Citarelli or something like that? This MAGA crazy man that is within at least like the polling that I've seen has Cheryl up by 3ish points, which is average right around the margin of error. So that could be tied or she could be up by a little bit more. But New Jersey is always strange and it is more conservative than people think, especially in these off year elections. So with her up three, what do we think is going to happen in this race, guys?

[Chris]

I think, I mean, I think she'll win. I don't think there's a lot of chance that she loses. But like I was making a video on it this morning about I want to see what the margin is more than I want to see if she wins or not. Because like, you're right, I mean, I'm from New Jersey so I know, you know how New Jersey behaves a lot of the way. And it's like if she doesn't do better than Harris did, and Harris did poorly in New Jersey, she won by 6%, which I won by 16. So she really sucked in 24. I think the over, under is 6 because it really is sort of like a bellwether for how people feel about Trump. If Trump didn't lose ground in New Jersey over the last whatever, nine months, what the fuck is going on, you know, it's, we're not going to lose it.

[Tim]

Right?

[Chris]

Right. Well, that's the thing. It's like if I look at it as like, all right, if she wins by 10%, okay, great, we've made up some ground in an area where Trump was trending the right direction. But if she barely fucking wins, then she's doing worse than Kamala Harris did, and that is a very bad sign. So, like, I look at it more as a margin question than I look at it as like a win loss question.

[Zach]

Well, I'm going to be close because.

[Earl]

I mean, Jersey, I'm from Long island, you know, across the, across the way. And I've watched it get increasingly magnified and MAGA voters in off year elections, or I should say Republicans in off year elections are very motivated to vote. I, I don't know if people on the ground are as psyched to vote for Mikey Sherrill, you know, as they even were for Harris. Like, I, I don't know if Democrats are that, that psyched. So I think it could be a squeaker, but we'll see.

[Rich]

I think what I'm looking for, I mean, people should remember, like, governors matter, mayors matter. Most of these things. They'll be, you know, they'll be read into and spun one way or the other. It's not going to say a lot about the national mood. I mean, these are decided, these are special elections essentially decided at local levels. But so one thing I'm looking for in, in the, the governor's race in New Jersey in particular is the, the behavior of independent voters and Latino voters. There's, there was a piece Monday morning in the Washington Post about Passaic county in New Jersey that was pretty interesting. It was a heavily Latino, is a heavily, heavily Latino area. And it went for Democrats in the past, but it flipped to Trump in 2024. The polling among Latino voters is very bad for Trump right now. He went from like 44, 45% approval to I think 24 or 22. Like, it is these like basement level polling. But it looks like Citarelli is probably going to outperform Donald Trump. And so, you know, looking at like, is this going to be a referendum on Trump or is, or are they going to buck some of that trend? Because typically midterm voters or, you know, midterm elections are a referendum on the party in power. So, you know, the margin is going to matter. But double clicking down into those, into the, into the cross tabs and the exit polls and looking at how, how those Individual group, groups of voters behave is going to be, I think, really interesting and really telling in what we can maybe look for in the midterm elections.

[Zach]

Well, the, there was a CNN poll out today that has Trump's disapproval at 63%. So I think it's safe to assume that the Republican in New Jersey will outperform that. The question is how much does that sink him? I mean, 63% negative is. Is bad. Very, very bad. So I guess we'll have to see. I would say, yeah, historically bad. And Zach, I take your under. I don't think she, I don't think she's going to be able to win by six points. I, I think it's going to be a. So, so Phil Murphy in his reelect, which people may have forgotten, but when we all went to bed in 2021, it looked like Murphy might have been in trouble and then he ended up winning by three. So we may have a scenario in which that's the same thing where again, red areas come in. But you know, I think the last time that New Jersey voted for three successive Democrats in office for governor was in the 1960s. So, you know, this would be bucking a bit of a trend. So I think it'll be interesting to see what happens. But I'm going to put, I'm going to put my over under a three.

[Chris]

Yeah.

[Zach]

Luke, what do you think?

[Tim]

I mean, I'm not like it's funny. I haven't been around for a lot of elections. Like I remember were all Trump. Like I, I remember that. Yeah. But I, I mean I don't think based on the data I've seen, I don't think six points is realistic for Cheryl.

[Chris]

It's possible some polls.

[Earl]

You guys remember 538 and Nate Silver.

[Tim]

Yeah.

[Earl]

And how like obsessed people were. My, myself included with, with like his polling for, for folks who might be too young to remember. Nate Silver very accurately predicted what was it the 2008 election. 8 and 12 and 538 became like this tremendous thing. It was eventually bought by abc. I only just learned because I'm googling now that it closed ABC Disney cut it back in March. It used to be great. I mean they did a poll of polls like in and they re weighed all of the polls. And back in the day, Nate Silver's math I think was pretty magical. There used to be a website called is natesilverawitch.com that would talk about how accurate his forecasts were. But I don't know if anyone's followed him beyond his 538 days, but he's become, like, kind of a not good dude.

[Zach]

Yeah. So Nate Silver, I loved in. In 08 and 1212. He actually kept me sane because I was in the Obama administration and everyone was terrified of losing their jobs. And there was like, romney's gonna win. Romney's gonna win. And I just kept going back to 538, and I was like, no, we got Florida. Like, you know, Ohio's still in play. Like, all these places, and, you know, don't worry about it. Don't worry about it. But then in 16 with the Trump effect, he never figured out how to create a model that worked for that, and so his whole model came crashing down, and then he tried to turn himself into a bit of a pundit, and then the opposite effect happens where whatever Nate Silver says, you know, the opposite is going to happen. And he is a bit of a egotistical guy and never will admit that he's wrong. And he's kind of disappeared except over on Twitter where he says a bunch of dumb. And. Yeah, Twitter people eat it up sometimes, and sometimes they just tell him to shut up, but he's kind of a. A nothing burger at this point. But, yeah, at one point, he was. He was a very, very real thing.

[Chris]

But it was good in 2020. I used it all the time in 2020, and it was. I mean, nobody was accurate in 2020 or 2016, 24, but he was actually surprisingly close in 2020. But, you know, that was an easier election to call. But he does the. What's it called? The Silver Bulletin or some shit now. I think he's like a substack dude now. I don't think he has any real presence anymore, though.

[Zach]

Well, polling is so screwed up now. It's very hard to tell who's actually right and who's wrong and everything. So it's like, just not a world that has as much attention as it used to. But, yeah, it's very weird.

[Chris]

Like, I mean, certain pollsters that I used to really rely on have become extraordinarily unreliable, which I don't understand. It's very bizarre. That dude fucking runs Trafalgar or whatever is the most accurate at this point. He's like the dude who, you know, correctly called 16 for Trump, and everybody thought he was God.

[Zach]

Yeah, I do think he. I think he royally swung and missed it. 2022.

[Chris]

Oh, he, like, really?

[Zach]

Really? Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's just. Yeah. I mean, like, look, like it's just a tough model. It's hard. Like young people don't pick up the phone and, you know, it's just, you know, it's a. It's a tough thing. And so anyways. All right, so we have anywhere but from three.

[Earl]

Any of you guys ever answered a random poll?

[Chris]

No.

[Earl]

In any context?

[Chris]

No.

[Zach]

No, but never in my life. Yeah, but you and I live in a place that they're not going to pull us here in New York because I'm in Georgia.

[Chris]

They would try. They didn't try to get me.

[Zach]

It's just really hard. So, anyways. All right, well, okay, so I think we're all sort of. We all think that Mikey Cheryl will win. Just a question of how much. I certainly hope that Zach is right. I guess we'll see the next one. We're going to keep going southeast, southwest to the Commonwealth of Virginia, where we have Abigail Spanberger, a former member of Congress, a former CIA official is running against. Oh, I've forgotten her name. And we are big enough now that I should have remembered this. The lieutenant governor, who is an actual crazy person, takes photos with, like, AR15s and these weird poses. And Earl says, Earl Sears says that being against. Against LGBTQ rights isn't discrimin.

[Chris]

Well, you missed my favorite one. My favorite one is what happens to solar power when it's nighttime, when it's.

[Tim]

Dark and when, when, when the wind's not blowing. What happens to wind power?

[Chris]

Yeah, this is my favorite one.

[Zach]

Oh, my God. So I think everybody. So the latest average polling on. On Spanberger has her around nine points up. So the bigger question actually in the state is the attorney general's race with, I believe his name is Jay Jacobs, who made some really stupid and terrible comments about. I think it was a Republican challenger or somebody on the other side of the aisle, which in these, in this climate is a really stupid thing to say, which is. Has caused him to drop in the polls and brought Spanberger down a little bit. I think those are closer, but do we have any. I guess the question on Spanberger is is the nine points right or is it. Is. Is. If we set that at the over under, where do we think this lands?

[Chris]

I think around there. I mean, Harris won by five, Biden won by 10. She's up by 10. That's a good sign. You know, I think it's anywhere between five and ten. I can't imagine it going below five.

[Earl]

Yeah, they're.

[Zach]

Anyone else.

[Earl]

Virginia is very, very tied into the federal workforce, which is very pissed off right now.

[Zach]

Yeah.

[Earl]

You know, defense contractors are Also affected by this. Right. It's the people that you think of as traditionally Republican voting, Republican leaning, are also affected by the shutdown. They see how, you know, needlessly harmful this is not just to, you know, individuals who need help, but to our economy overall. So I, I think that due to Trump's insistence that we starve little kids, it's, it's in Virginia is certainly going to give Democrats a boost this year.

[Chris]

Yep.

[Zach]

Yeah. I think that the, if, if it ends up being nine or above, I think Democrats sweep all of those races. If it's below 9, we may be in some trouble with the Attorney General's race, but there's not a lot of ticket splitting at this point. You know, I, and also Democrats have already signaled that if Spanberger were to win, they are going to try and gerrymander another seat for Democrats. We desperately need the Attorney General to be a Democrat. I mean, there's ways to do it without it, but it will make it a lot longer slog. So. I know he said some terrible things, but, you know, we're sort of at a world where we don't pick the perfect person. We pick the person that can, like, help save democracy and getting another seat in the Congress. Very important. So, yes. All right. So we've done three races. We've done three races and now we go to one that we've been personally involved with, where we helped to organize and host the yes on 50 Live campaign. This is the gerrymander case or gerrymander ballot initiative that Governor Gavin Friend of the show has put in front of California. And honestly, there's not much to talk about here because Republicans stopped spending money because they realize that or a lot of the money because they're realizing that the polling and everything shows that yes on 50 is at a plus. I've seen as high as plus 18 so far, which means that Newsom and the team have done a great job of educating voters on why all of a sudden they need to support gerrymandering after years of telling them not. Not an easy thing to do. I think the, the bigger question on this is, you know, how much, depending on how much they win this by what this does to Newsom's thoughts on 2028, which he sort of dipped his toe. The other. Some people said he announced he did not. He said he was going to think about it after the midterms of 2026, which, you know, he said he didn't.

[Chris]

Want to be president. I don't know if you saw that, like, they Just said, I don't want to be President, but I might. Essentially, it's like, I don't want to be president, but I might need to be president. Yeah. Like, there was a headline just like, of his quote is. I don't. Was the quote. Yeah. It's like the question is, why do you want to be president? He says, I don't. You know, I. I think it's, you know, I. I understand what he's saying. He's like, nobody wants. I mean, some people want to be prison, but, you know, like, it's a tough job. And like, I think it's like he sees himself as the guy who could theoretically do the best job, but that doesn't mean that he wants to be president. He's like, I need to be president.

[Earl]

You know, I. I appreciate it. I mean, I. I think he wants to be president. To be clear, I do think that he's Loves himself enough to imagine himself in. In the White House, as anyone who ends up in the White House must do.

[Chris]

Y.

[Tim]

Right.

[Zach]

But I.

[Earl]

Generally speaking, and this is what I think he's trying to appeal to. I like the reluctant leader. I like the person who. Who feels called to serve, who feels like they don't have a choice but to help fix problems. That is. That is something that I find personally inspiring. It's something that I respect a lot. And though I think that Gavin Newsom is faking it, I will give him credit for at least trying to.

[Chris]

He's definitely faking it.

[Zach]

Yeah. I mean, you. Chris makes a good point. That may seem more. It may have sounded more of a negative than it really is. Like, look, like, to be President, United States means that you have to think that you are the only person out of 330 million people that could be President of the United States. You have to have an ego. You have to. There's no way to not like, for you to think that you are one. One out of 330 million is. I mean, look, it's just the way it is. But you also need something.

[Earl]

If I were 6 foot 5 and had great hair, I might have that kind of ego, too. But here I am a short guy with no hair, so I'll never be president.

[Zach]

That's.

[Earl]

That's just the way it works.

[Zach]

I'm so sorry. You just have to settle for being a. A media magnet. Is that magnate. Magnate. Magnet.

[Chris]

I don't know what the right pronunciation is.

[Zach]

I don't know. We're not that. So I don't know what. I don't know what it is. But yeah, I, I, I agree. But I mean I think if yes on 50 is like above 15 points. I mean my God, like that when we originally, you know, when this started there was a bit of hesitation because there was a question of whether that people thought that Californians won. They're not used to off year elections. So it's like wait, what you. I have to vote. I just voted. Yeah, and they are all mail in ballots for this I believe. I think I'm not 100 sure. I know my, my in laws vote by mail every single time. So it's very, at least very easy to do so. But if he clears 20 points on this thing, like, I mean that like to me at this point, even though we're so far out and I hate doing this shit, he's at the top of the list. Like I put him, I put him above people to judge who I really like. I put him above Kamala Harris who I like. But I just don't think that, I just feel like if you've run once you've, you've had no matter how unfair it is, I just, I think the electorate likes new people, new ideas, new energy. I just think it's really tough unless your name is Donald Trump. Where I guess Richard Nixon ran but once and lost and then ran again, but he waited 10 years in between.

[Earl]

So what I'm most interested in is assuming when Mamdani wins and there's a huge landslide with Prop 50 is where is Donald Trump's attention going to go? I, I think that he's going to have a, a tough time picking between do I target the Muslim guy in New York City that I now resent because I spent most of my life there, no one there ever liked me, or do I go after potentially the next president? I think that either way Trump is going to use ice as a battering ram to try to destroy one or both men. But, but ultimately Donald Trump's not a multitasker so I think he's gonna choose one.

[Zach]

Well, I think it's New York for a few reasons and I think they think that they can make Memdani a boogeyman and just say socialism, you know, click your heels three times and I don't know if like Stalin shows up or something, I don't know.

[Tim]

But like a non of urban socialism.

[Zach]

Say it, say it all. Yeah, it's the old Rudy Giuliani trick with 9 11. That's the funniest thing Joe Biden still ever said was all Rudy Giuliani. Is. Is the noun of verb. And 9, 11, which seeing. Yeah, I just seen Joe Biden in this presidency and remembering he said that. Bit of a dissonance, but I, I think, I think they're going to pick on New York City also, because it's, it's Donald Trump's backyard. He knows it. And I think he's bitter that everybody hates him here in his own town because everybody has a story of him screwing over somebody. So I think he's going to test it because he's already done la, right? He already, like, has. There's not. He doesn't get as much bang for his buck for going back again and frankly, not very successfully when he was there.

[Tim]

Right.

[Zach]

So I think they're going to test New York. I did see that Mamdani is thinking about keeping on the police commissioner, which everybody seems to really like. It's a woman and I'm forgetting her name. I apologize. But so, like, you know, there's going to be some, some carryover from these two administrations and, you know, if Memdani's smart, like, he'll play it right. But I think Trump's going to test him. I think they're going to send ICE here. And we've already seen it a little bit. There's even a viral video of a NYPD officer screaming at ICE in Washington Heights. It's great. If you haven't seen it, you should go look it up, I think.

[Earl]

Are you sure that's real?

[Zach]

I thought it was real.

[Earl]

I think it might be a sore video.

[Tim]

Scary thing.

[Earl]

I think so. Yeah. I think the watermark was removed.

[Chris]

Okay.

[Zach]

NYPD. When ice comes, scream @ them and we will all love you. Okay. Don't let them do this stuff. So anyway, there was a video of them not doing this. It seemed. Sorry. So this is the problem with AI. We need regulations around it.

[Chris]

Yeah, we need AI regulations. That's like the biggest issue.

[Zach]

Oh, my God. But anyways, yeah, I think it's New York. I think he's going to test and I think, I honestly think if, if Memdani, that will send. Memdani's pulling, I think, soaring. If he does that sends armed ICE agents into New York City. Like, you know, it hasn't worked really well anywhere. And we've seen the videos of abuse that I saw this ICE agent just blow bulldoze through a protester this weekend who wasn't even looking, just was standing and the guy got like a 20 step running head start and just jacked this dude straight in the back. It's like, what are we doing?

[Chris]

Well, it's. Trump said it himself. He said they haven't gone far enough with this stuff is what he wants. Yep, that's, that's the whole thing. I think he's, he's exactly your point of like, LA didn't really work out for him. Chicago didn't really work out for him. Like, that's why he's saying this shit. It's just not very effective. You know, people don't like, for a.

[Zach]

Guy sitting at 63% disapproval, I, it's not working for him. And I think the good news is that the, the worst of what they are trying to do. Most the majority of the American public is not into it.

[Chris]

No, even the right wing people are liking it. Like Joe Rogan himself was like, this is not, this isn't kind. It's like, yeah, no Joe Rogan, eat.

[Tim]

A bag of that guy.

[Chris]

But it's not just him. Like, it's a ton of the right wing people. They look at this like, this is not what I anticipate. It's like, yeah, maybe you should have thought about it for a second, you know.

[Tim]

Good one.

[Zach]

Yeah. Joe Rogan, I, if I went on a show, I would like to introduce him to a website that's. You guys might be familiar with. It's called Google. It doesn't seem like he's ever used it in his life.

[Earl]

Do you see that piece of.

[Tim]

He, he argued with whoever, his guest or with like his producer about a video of Tim Walls dancing because it was AI. And Rogan went, it's not AI. That's, that's, that's real. And his, his dude's like, no, dude, that's AI. And there was like a full blown argument.

[Zach]

Yeah, that's been taking too much Ivermectin.

[Chris]

If you watch that video, it's like so clearly not Tim Walls. It's like on like a fat dude wearing a, like some anti Trump shirt. I'm like, what?

[Zach]

The craziest thing is that that guy has the biggest audience in the entire United States on news. Right. I know it's not his main point of his show, but he, he's bigger than any of the networks. He's certainly bigger than any of us. No one has the reach and this guy doesn't do a single bit of research. I wish someone would do a super cut of all the times that he gets proven wrong. When he goes, oh, and he makes a comment, they're like, no, that's not right. He's like, oh, like I think he had Bill Burr or somebody on talking about vaccines and Burr was just like destroying him.

[Chris]

Oh, so good.

[Tim]

He's like, I'm not gonna sit here and talk to you who doesn't have a medical degree to me, who also doesn't have a medical. Medical degree while we both sit and smoke cigars.

[Chris]

Yeah. With the American flag behind it.

[Zach]

And. And I take Iverbectin, which is a horse dewormer, which has never been proven to do anything with COVID Nothing. Nothing at all. And then I saw Ron Desantis. One of the big things he's pushing is getting Ivermectin over the counter in Florida is actually a bill he is trying to push, which. Can't you just go to the feed and farm store and get that?

[Tim]

Yep, you can.

[Earl]

Yes, you can go to tractor supply. That's where all the QANON freaks were doing it.

[Tim]

Someone who grew up on a farm. It's a. Like you could get it at a tractor supply.

[Zach]

Yeah.

[Tim]

Most of them are mint flavored for the horses.

[Chris]

It's so stupid because Ivermectin is used for humans for other things, but not for this shit. And it's like there are two different formulations. You think they're giving the same formulation to horses as humans?

[Rich]

Come on.

[Chris]

It's fucking insane.

[Tim]

Try it.

[Zach]

But also, isn't there the drug now for Covid that you can take? That's not a vaccine. If you get Paxlovid. So why aren't they taking. They don't like that either.

[Chris]

They don't like that either. Because it's.

[Tim]

No, it's not meant for a horse.

[Chris]

Yeah.

[Tim]

Sugar cube.

[Chris]

When you eat it, the second you're old and get Covid, they just throw a Paxlovid at you and you're fine. Like it's. It works extremely well.

[Zach]

Right? Yeah. So I don't.

[Tim]

Yeah.

[Zach]

Oh, God.

[Earl]

But like I've used it twice and it's like a miracle drug.

[Chris]

Yeah. It's incredible.

[Tim]

Damn.

[Chris]

Yep. Extremely.

[Zach]

Get your.

[Tim]

For history, I've had Covid eight times, I think.

[Chris]

Eight?

[Zach]

What? Eight.

[Tim]

I catch. I catch COVID like the bathroom floor or something. It's ridiculous. But of course, now that I haven't had it in months, they have a miracle drug that fixes it.

[Chris]

Well, they probably wouldn't give it to you anyway because you're too young. They usually give it to like.

[Earl]

Yeah, you gotta have those pre existing conditions, baby.

[Chris]

Yeah.

[Zach]

You can get your. You know, I, I got my, my Covid and my flu vaccines this Year just walked up, you know, made the appointment and got it all done. And the person laughed at me because I asked after the fact which of the vaccines she gave me which whether it was moderna. And she goes shouldn't you have asked that before I put it in you? And I was like, oh yeah, that's probably. But I was just curious. But yeah, that whole thing is just master. Masterfully insane. Awfully insane. I don't know what I'm saying. So back to Trump though. I think a good conversation is so like Chris, as you were saying, so what does he do? I mean I think the ICE stuff we know he's going to do. But what else? Like I have a theory that if they get drubbed tomorrow night in those in particular, in those four, that members of con. Republican members of Congress are going to start panicking about the shutdown because if they see what things are like now and they know that the economy is weakening, we all know like the Fed just cut rates another quarter point last week. Brissette said today that percent are Bessette what percent? You can't keep. Keep all these trolls names but said the thing about the recess recession in a few areas. Yeah, like I think they're, I actually think if we want to shut down fast, like Dem's wiping the floor tomorrow would, would push that a lot faster. Yeah, so that's true.

[Tim]

Are they going to give on that then? Like if they, if they decide the shutdown's done, they give on this.

[Chris]

That's the hard part because like I feel like people don't remember like the reason this is happening is Democrats looked at the worst part of the big beautiful bill and said we're just, we're not doing this. You're going to fix this horrible thing that you guys already put into place. So it's like it is a little tough is that the Democrats are sort of forcing them to renegotiate something that's already passed. And it's like that's the, that's the real sticking point here is like Republicans have to do a very hard 180 on this shit if they are going to land anywhere near what Democrats want. And that's the challenge. So Tim, I think you're right of like if Democrats really overperform and they see like oh this path isn't great and it's only going to get worse, then I think they're going to be more open to it. But if Republicans do well, they're not going to do shit. They're just going to fucking eat it.

[Zach]

I think that's 100% right. So, like, for everybody listening, I know everybody who's listening is voting. Right? Right. But it's important to run the numbers up. Even the California thing, which I think everybody has pretty much said, like, the likelihood of that passing is very, very high.

[Chris]

Very.

[Zach]

Margins matter. They matter a lot.

[Chris]

They do.

[Zach]

Especially for signals to the other side. So if you're just like, oh, oh, I don't need to like, get my ballot because I know this thing's in the bag. Yes, you do. Yes, you do. And you need to call your friends and family, make sure every state, you know, I even, I even called, he's listening, so he's going to get a kick out of it. But I called my brother who lives in one of these states, I won't give away where, and made sure that he was voting and he was on his way when I talk to him. So, you know, everybody, you, everybody needs to do that. That's. The campaigns always say it, but it's so true. Like, it's much better coming from a friend or a family member than like some no name, you know, spam message on your phone. You just like, get this out of here. Like, but you'll listen to people that you know. So that to me is, is very important. So everybody, as you're listening, even Tuesday morning, make those calls. The other thing is to make sure to tell people that if they are in line when the polls close, do not leave, because if you are in line, they'll stop the line behind you wherever you are. It, you know, in Virginia, I think it's seven. New York, it's nine with the polls close. And. But if you are in line at those times, even if the line's out the door, they have to take you. So you always see these tweets at the end of the night. It's like, stay in line, stay in line. It's true. And it matters because the people who tend to flake tend to be Democratic voters, to be perfectly honest. And so, like, let's make sure. I mean, I remember in 2000, 2012, I was in Virginia beach because I was, I was running a poll, a volunteer location, because we were, again, all scared of losing our jobs. So we were like, we need to win Virginia. And then we went to a polling location and we worked with the voter protection people and we were observers. And there were, There was a kid, I remember there was a kid, he was 18, 19 years old, person of color, and he was waffling. He Kept being like, how much long? He kept asking me, like, how long do you think this is going to be? I was like, I don't know, man, but you gotta stay. I'm like, you gotta stay. Like, you know, and he, he actually, he, he left and I was like. And then he came back like two minutes later. He goes, yeah, I texted my mom that I was leaving and she's like, I will murder you if you don't.

[Chris]

Stay in that line.

[Zach]

And it was so funny. But it just shows you, like, how not everybody has the same information. Not everybody knows the stakes. Like, this kid was very well natured. One guy, I literally got to stay in line because I propped a door open so he could huff a butt so he didn't have to go out. Like, these, like, these people will leave for any reason because it's just like, it doesn't matter as much to the, like, regular person who's not, like, paying attention.

[Chris]

Right.

[Zach]

Like, these things, like, you know, someday I'll tell the full story of that horrible, like, the way those people were disenfranchised in the location that I was at. But, you know, but by like machines, quote unquote, breaking and all this stuff. And it was just, and it was off and it was in the, the black district in Virginia Beach. Like, it was like, you've got to be kidding me here.

[Earl]

Yeah.

[Zach]

So, but anyways, these things matter. So, you know, I think, but I think it's true, like, if we win by a lot, the chances of the shutdown ending either later this week or next week are high. But if we don't, it's low.

[Rich]

Yep.

[Zach]

And we're starting to get into the period where the shutdown stuff's going to start hurt people big time.

[Tim]

Right.

[Earl]

So one thing I haven't heard anybody really addressing is the annual stolen election lie. Donald Trump is, has been, you know, using and saying stuff about stolen elections since 2015. Chris, I slipped. You know, he, I, I still have the sexual assaulters club of him and Cuomo just invading my brain.

[Tim]

They put the essay back in usa, man.

[Zach]

Terrible people.

[Earl]

We shouldn't be laughing. So anyway, so the stolen election lie is Trump's response to every loss. And now he's got levers of power that he's, that he's using, that he has access to and that the courts have given him permission to, that are greater than ever before. And I, I do think that if there is any sort of blowout tonight, that he's going to respond with, you know, with investigations and, and with Threats and with trying to confiscate ballots and inspect voter machines. There. There is no reason for Donald Trump to have changed from any of the tactics that he wanted to use in 2020. But now he doesn't have people around him to stop him. And in fact, virtually every around everyone around him is like been absolutely committed to the Stone election lie. That is, you know, one of the prerequisites for working in his administration.

[Zach]

Well, he did say that he was sending a, quote, unquote election observers to New Jersey and California. Notice that he did not say he was sending them to Virginia, which is run by a governor at this point, Governor Youngkin. It's very clear that he is going to do this and continue to feel flow these or push these lies which again, like it blows me away that so many people are convinced that the 2020 election was stolen, even though they have never, never seen one shred of evidence, not one. It doesn't exist. Like these conspiracy theories are just exactly that, like him losing all of these states that were run by Republicans should convince you enough that that was the case. But, you know, these people don't look at facts or reason or logic so. Well, the last thing that I, I should have announced this at the beginning because more people probably would hear it. But this, I think we're going to wrap this show today. But we got a very special event happening this evening that we are all participating in. All five of us will be on YouTube doing an election night event where we will be getting on YouTube and on live and talking about the returns as they come in, answering questions, doing all those sorts of things and we're really excited about it. We've never done a YouTube live before. I think it's going to be a really fun night. And let's be honest, who wants to listen to MSNBC or CNN at this point?

[Rich]

Nobody.

[Zach]

Hear the same dumb over and over again when you can listen to these five charming or at least four charming you guys, guys talking about this stuff, having some fun, maybe a drink or two. You know, a couple F bombs will probably be dropped.

[Earl]

I still like Steve Kornacki. I mean he's, he's a genuinely entertaining guy to, to watch on election night. But we're going to be better. So why don't you pretend, why don't.

[Zach]

You get a whiteboard and do the hand drawing of the United States like we were talking about in a meeting earlier, how some of us had to draw that in high school, break those skills out and then you can start doing blues and Reds and you know we'll get you some khakis and you know you'll be ready to go be fun. But yes. So we want everyone to join us. It is free. It's just on our our account on YouTube which is just find out podcast at Findout Podcasts. So you'll be it'll easy to find us. And if you sign up before we start, you can hit the notify me button and it will tell you exactly when we go. But we'll go at 8:30. We will be on time whether everybody is here or not. Because I will.

[Tim]

I can't imagine who would be late.

[Chris]

No.

[Zach]

Well, there's only four of us right now. So I don't know where he went.

[Earl]

But he's not here. He can't defend himself.

[Zach]

Oh Rich.

[Earl]

No one listening to audio knows he's missing.

[Chris]

That's true.

[Tim]

By the way, we want to sell a shirt that says where's Rich? Because he's late so often.

[Zach]

Yeah. Was anybody buy that? Speaking of merch, I've got one of our lovely shirts on right now. I've got T shirt. Luke's got one on two.

[Chris]

I had the mug somewhere. Where's my mug?

[Zach]

Where's the mug man?

[Chris]

I had it.

[Tim]

Guy doesn't know how to do products.

[Zach]

Chris has got one. There you go. So you know we don't have. We're not gonna have video on everybody tonight. I'd say wear your merch to the thing but we're not gonna be able to tell. But you can buy some right [e-mail] Union made or excuse me, made in the USA Union printed or union stitched Y something like that printed. And you get to show your support and help us keep the lights on. And also by actually by participating in the live. You will also help us keep the lights on because our channel's monetized and you don't have to pay anything. It's great. So anyways, I think that is it for now. Also if you want to get a membership go to find out podcast subtech.com we will be back on Thursday talking about what we saw happen on Tuesday night. So if you can't join us on the event at the evening, we'll be back on Thursday. So until then, everybody go vote. Thank you very much and we'll see you in a couple days.