Mark Caputo (2:05)

Oh, yeah, we could be a nuclear war by now. Who knows?

Sarah Longwell (2:08)

So in general terms, we just walk me through how people in the Trump world are thinking about, you know, the trouble some of these cabinet picks are facing, like Matt Gaetz, rip Pete Hegseth, you know, he let Gaetz bow out. How committed is he going to the mat for someone like Hegseth?

Mark Caputo (2:26)

How committed was he going to the mat for Hagseth? Not that committed. Trump. He's that meme of the Guy looking over his shoulder at the other woman is always sort of looking at the other possible pick. Right. And that other woman in this case, using the meme term, by the way, and not, not any other infrastructure.

Sarah Longwell (2:43)

Not talking about real woman.

Mark Caputo (2:44)

Yes, indeed. Ron DeSantis was playing the part of the new deciderata. How about that? But since that period of time last week or so, Hegseth has sort of stabilized. He had a number of good days toward the end of his first week. The Trump team views that first week as being of utter importance. He survived. And they believe that the more time that goes by, the higher Hegseth's chances are for confirmation. Hegseth is sort of the new tip of the spear. The original tip of the spear for the more troublesome or controversial cabinet picks was Gates. Hegseth looked like Gates 2.0, but he's hanging around. Then you've got Cash Patel, Tulsi Gabbard and rfk. But so far, the feeling in Trump world is good. And then on Monday, they got the real boost from Tom Cotton, the Arkansas senator. He plays a really important role in the Senate as sort of the man in the middle of the Republican conference. You have sort of the new young Turks that are more populist and more maga, certainly symbolized by JD Vance. But, you know, in that pool, you know, you can't really call Rick Scott Young, the Florida center, but both Rick Scott, Marco Rubio are there. Josh Howley is there, Senator Lee from Utah.

Sarah Longwell (4:05)

Based Mike Lee.

Mark Caputo (4:06)

Sure, based Mike Lee. And they're sort of the anti McConnell, sort of more conservative neocon GOP.

Sarah Longwell (4:15)

And are they the neocons?

Mark Caputo (4:18)

I don't know. That's. I put it in, like, serious air quotes. Right. And in between them is Tom Cotton. And so Cotton has a kingmaker quality to him in the Senate GOP conference. And when he said that he expects all of Trump's appointees to be confirmed at that point, at least in Trump's transition team's view, that's a big step forward for them because they think that means they got the votes or that they don't have them. They're going to get them for all these folks.

Sarah Longwell (4:46)

So obviously, Burkowski, Collins, those are tough.

Mark Caputo (4:49)

Yeah, yeah.

Sarah Longwell (4:50)

They're not going to vote for a lot of these people. So they can only lose one or two more votes. Right. So who are the other folks who might be resistant? Because, you know, we forget sometimes that there's a bunch of these people that you don't. Mike Rounds, you don't hear about A lot. But he's there being normal.

Mark Caputo (5:06)

Roger Wickers. Wicker, the Mississippi Center. When you think of sort of your more traditional GOP who might not be so cool. Tulsi Gabard. Right. Or maybe even Cash Patel.

Sarah Longwell (5:19)

Yeah. Like Curtis might not be. Right. The guy replacing Romney.

Mark Caputo (5:22)

Oh yeah, he, he during Gates was seen as kind of a hard no. And since Trump had not endorsed him, he doesn't really owe much to Trump. And generally the Trump team does view McConnell as a close fellow traveler of Collins and Yarkowski. So they kind of perpetually mark him in the probably third category. You know, they can only lose four. Right. Because they got a 53 Senate majority.

Sarah Longwell (5:49)

J.D.

Mark Caputo (5:49)

Vance cast tie breaking vote, blah, blah, blah. So in the case of Hegseth, the central player there is Joni Ernst. I would imagine dangerous prediction that by assuming Hegseth doesn't drop out. I know that sounds crazy to then say the next thing that Joni Ernst will signal support ultimately for Hegseth. I'm just guessing because the amount of pressure that's being brought to bear on her from MAGA World. And that's if Joni Ernst is seeking reelection. Maybe if she doesn't seek reelection the coming cycle in 2026, it might be a different matter. But she is. So, you know, she's played an important role in sort of gumming up the Hegseth confirmation. But again, there is just this feeling that things are starting to trend in Trump's direction. It's a feeling four or five days from now, who knows?

Sarah Longwell (6:36)

Okay, appreciate that Roundup, but I want to get into the meat of the show here and talk about how these Biden to Trump voters talked about their switch in November because obviously one of the reasons that Trump is able to jam through or people are starting to say like, yeah, let's give Trump what he wants is because he won the popular vote, he won all seven swing states. And even though ultimately his popular vote margins down to about 1.4%, these senators, they view him as having the imprimatur of the American people in such a way that he can go ahead and do these things. So.

Mark Caputo (7:11)

Yeah, well, related to that, what, what's really interesting about this focus group is that these are these Biden voters who voted Trump and a lot of them say the things and in some cases express the support for RFK and Tulsi Gabbard, who are two of those nominees. They play crucial roles both when I listen to this focus group and crucial roles in Trump's view and the Trump team's view in getting him elected and they say in going forward and governing. So, yeah, I mean, there's a close connection between those two.

Sarah Longwell (7:42)

Yeah. One of the things that I, I guess I want to emphasize is that we have talked on this show to a lot of Trump to Biden voters, people who had voted for Trump in 16 and Biden in 20. That's a different kind of voter really than these Biden to Trump voters. And let me tell you, I don't mean these are people who like voted for Trump and then they voted for Biden and now they're back to Trump. That's not really who these people are. They're just kind of Democrats or they've been a kind of Democrat, a kind of anti institutionalist Democrat who now find themselves not Republicans exactly, but red pilled and magnified. And I want you to hear how they sound because I really think that this ended up being the kind of independent voter who broke for Trump and kind of gave him his margin. So let's listen.

Voter 1 (8:31)

He just took the reins while it just felt like she was just there, like in and out, popping out, saying like, oh, hey, vote for me.

Sarah Longwell (8:38)

And then she would just leave.

Voter 1 (8:39)

Okay, that's it. Bye. But with him, you know, he stood his ground, spotlight always on him. And I think that's definitely how it should be. If you want to be president, we need to hear you, we need to see you.

Mark Caputo (8:51)

You are the voice of us, okay?

Voter 1 (8:54)

You will be listening to us. You will.

Sarah Longwell (8:56)

You're basically a servant of the American people.

Voter 1 (8:58)

He did seem kind of divisive. You know, he does tend to get people pretty angry and pretty worked up. But the other side of that coin is he is who he is. He's not fake. Like some people hide behind a mask, you know who he is. But he does tend to say some pretty abrasive stuff and, you know, it's questionable. I'm a New Yorker, so I really didn't like him before. I thought he was too much to show off. And I didn't have confidence that he could, like he said, have the finger on the trigger, on the button, but mention I went back to my hometown. I went back to New York City last month and I couldn't believe. I'm like, oh, what? It doesn't even look like my city. I'm like, that's my city. I felt unsafe and I was armed. I'm like, how did they destroy the city in four years? What happened then? My friends obviously are law enforcement and attorneys and whatnot. They're like, okay, well, our hands are tight. We cannot do anything because they have more rights than we do. And I'm like, okay, well, that's the reason why I'm voting, is that. And also not just do our hands tied as law enforcement, but now you're bringing a bunch of criminals through the border and then we have to deal with that. And like, okay, no, enough is enough. And that's the only reason why I voted for Trump. Border and law, the abortion and everything, it's on you. You want to have 20, that's on you. I'm very open minded when it comes to that. However, we're talking about New York City. I mean, it's a mess. Oh, my God, it looks dark poor. I thought I was in Detroit, Michigan. I'm like, what happened to my city? And too much liberalism and it has to stop. That's why I voted for the guy. Not that I love him or I like him or nothing. And I'm voted for him and I'm holding him to his word. We're going to have law and order. Without law and order, there's nothing. There's no peace, there's nothing. I think that he's a piece of shit. I think he's crazy, I think he lies. I think he's just a horrible human being. But, like, I have to admit, like, as much as I hate Donald Trump, when he was in office, I saw more in my paycheck. The prices were down, things were better, hate was up. Of course hate was up. But I could afford to live at that point. And these past four years dramatically made things so much tougher. I kind of agree with what several people said that there's some things I don't like about Trump personally, but I do believe he really does love his country and he does intend to improve the way things are. And I also like the fact that Trump has quite a really good team assembled so far, and I think it's only going to get better. So it's not just him, it's also his team, me. Harris was Biden 2.0. We were going to get exactly the same thing for next four years. And, and he talked about ending the Ukraine war in two days. Now, whether that's possible or not, I don't know, but he's in a position where he can tell Zelensky, I'm not going to give you any more bullets unless you give back Donbass and just let them have it. Whatever. Whatever his plans are, he had plans. Whereas Harris campaign. All I ever heard was abortion when he got shot, actually, it told me that someone really didn't want him to be in place. And usually when someone's trying to keep someone away that bad, that means they're possibly going to be that good. So I'm not really a fan of the wars and everything that has been started and even the side that America has taken as it relates to some of the war. So he would definitely do something different there.

Sarah Longwell (12:49)

You know, I think that last woman is indicative of a kind of low social trust voter. That's a new part of the GOP coalition. And so, Mark, you were following the Trump campaign for the whole campaign and talking to them, did they have like a clear sense in Trump world that they were trying to build a different coalition in 2024 that than they were in 2016 and 2020 and the people that they've gotten. When you listen to these voters, do you hear like, yep, this is, this is exactly who Trump thought he was going to be able to pull?

Mark Caputo (13:21)

Yes. One of the things that impressed me just listening to all of these different people talk is it sounds like it's the focus group for Trump when they were working on these types of voters, and obviously they were able to turn them out. What you hear in aggregate when you listen to everyone here, they represent the unraveling, the unwinding, the disaggregation, the disintegration, the digitization of our society and the way in which the mainstream media and media operates. Because you can hear all these people have just these very different sources of information that they are gravitating toward and that don't use kind of the mainstream media as a filter. And when you hear them talk, like the one woman talking about what attracted her to Trump, I'm paraphrasing, obviously, was that he got shot at because it meant that there was essentially this cabal that was trying to get at him. That is stuff that you don't hear in mainstream media, but you hear in social media, you hear in alternative media. And they hit their targets.

Sarah Longwell (14:27)

Yeah, this is all over the focus groups. This particular sentiment, especially, you know, when Trump was getting indicted or when they went into Mar a Lago to get the documents back back because he was refusing to turn them over, all the classified documents. One of the things I just heard over and over again from a lot of these sort of Trump sympathetic voters was, man, they must really be afraid of him. Deep State must really be scared. Somebody must really want to keep him out of power.

Mark Caputo (14:55)

What's the truth?

Sarah Longwell (14:55)

You know, if. If they want to keep him out of power so badly, you know, he must be doing something right. Like, there is a way in which the anti elitism, anti institutionalism that I think Trump has both tapped into and then exacerbated over time, it's turned a whole bunch of things on its head in terms of old rules. And you just used a word that I think is, like, almost at the center of the difference with people, which is filter, the sort of media filter. Like, why did Nixon resign? Because the media could put the kind of pressure on them and voters, everything that they read, everything they consumed was filtered through the lens of the media. And that media had an enormous amount of power, and it just doesn't anymore. It is no longer a filter. And so people are getting their information in much more disparate ways. It's just all the old rules are out the door.

Mark Caputo (15:53)

As a Florida man, I'd be remiss in not pointing out that famous Florida group, Leonard Skynyrd, which wrote Sweet Home Alabama, says in there now, watergate does not bother me. Does your conscience call on you? And if the media that we have today, the diffused, disaggregated media that serves a lot of the disaffected, existed back then, that sentiment now, Watergate does not bother me. Does your conscience call on you? They'd be like, you know what? Nixon strong. He went to China. He's ending the war in Vietnam. Yeah, I doubt he would have resigned.

Sarah Longwell (16:28)

Yeah, it's kind of at the core of so much of it. So if you're a more sort of authority, skeptical, low social trust kind of person, you're probably more excited about the surrogates Trump has surrounded himself with than I am, let's say. Look, we've done a lot of focus groups since Trump got elected in order to, you know, just check in with people, especially people who had voted for Biden before, and figure out why did they vote for Trump this time around? Especially people who, like, didn't vote for him multiple times, like, they had lots of opportunities to vote for him, kept taking a pass, then they suddenly came around to him, and we were trying to figure out what are the reasons why. And one of the big ones has been sort of the Elon rfk. Like, it is the surrogates.

Mark Caputo (17:13)

Yes.

Sarah Longwell (17:14)

That he put out there. So let's listen to voters talk about that.

Voter 2 (17:18)

So this time around the last few years, I shifted to watching more independent media. And also, like somebody said on tv, I said, this is exactly me. You know, I did not vote for Trump. I voted For Elon Musk, I voted for rfk, which I really loved him and his position. I voted for Chelsea Gabbard. You know, I voted for, you know, Tucker Carlson, and then I voted for Trump. So it's a team and I love the fact that they represent, you know, running country as a business.

Voter 1 (17:45)

You know, the first time he won, he really didn't think he was going to win. So. So I think he took it as a joke and it was all about him. And he kind of did his New York thing that I'm used to seeing Trump do. So this go round, I think if he's got Elon Musk, who's all about technology and he's got RFK in there, who's all about the healthcare and cleaning up the environment and getting rid of these pharmaceutical companies that are running the country, I am not a Trump fan.

Sarah Longwell (18:11)

I think that he is divisive.

Voter 1 (18:14)

He inspires hate and disrespect.

Sarah Longwell (18:18)

However, the things that I appreciate about.

Voter 1 (18:21)

Him, first of all, it is putting Kennedy in his cabinet. I have mad respect for Kennedy. I feel like he will be a real asset to the administration with trying to improve our food supply and just.

Sarah Longwell (18:36)

Make America healthy again. That's one thing.

Voter 1 (18:39)

I also, it appears that he's going to get Elon Musk involved and.

Sarah Longwell (18:44)

And I appreciate that.

Voter 1 (18:45)

And Vance is a bright guy, so I like that he's surrounding himself with innovative people, people who kind of understand what the next generations need and their concerns.

Sarah Longwell (18:58)

Also, he's going to have a much.

Voter 1 (19:00)

Stronger hand with immigration, which is needed. It is a huge problem. I wanted a world that's going to be here for my granddaughter who's 10, okay? And I want the waters cleaned up and everything that Robert Kennedy did around New York and the harbor and everything else, and all these other pharmaceuticals and cleaning up all the environmental messes. I want that to happen. And if they put and chump in the office by doing that and you put RFK behind some of those problems, we could start to work on making this a better place. Going into Aquarian aids, I would have voted for rfk, but since RFK came onto his platform, I thought, okay, well, he can at least fix the healthcare. He can address the pharmaceutical industries, you know, he can address hopefully in different perspectives, you know, they will ask his opinion about something else. That's why I really wanted to win the election. We're talking about efficiency.

Mark Caputo (19:50)

Who is more qualified than Elon Musk.

Voter 1 (19:52)

To make something efficient? I was willing to give Kennedy a look at because. Just because the family. Just all the Kennedys seem to stand for, like, good things, as far as I am aware. So I was willing to actually give him a shot, especially over Biden and Harris. But then once he dropped out and that pretty much solidified it, that it was definitely going to be Trump voting. I hope he doesn't spend a good deal of his energy and time and resources on trying to get people back who haven't been kind to him.

Sarah Longwell (20:26)

I appreciate that he's got Kennedy and.

Voter 1 (20:29)

Elon Musk making a cabinet that will allow him to focus on where his.

Sarah Longwell (20:35)

Strength is, which I believe will be.

Voter 1 (20:37)

Immigration and foreign policy.

Sarah Longwell (20:42)

So I've been giving talks after the election, or I've given a few. I was overseas and people were, you know, asking for analysis around the election. One of the things that I have found remarkable and that I point out to people that kind of makes them go like, oh, yeah, is when I'm like, hey, you know, if you go back 10 years, Tulsi, Elon, RFK, Joe Rogan, and Trump himself, these are all Democrats. These are all Democrats 10 years ago. And so there is something interesting. If I had to point at the one thing that I think I was the most wrong about, it's how much I heard people expressing dislike for Trump, just constant dislike and dismay and opposition to his retribution, and how much they didn't like it. How many of them were still going to vote for him anyway. And that many of them told themselves they could vote for him because of Elon and rfk. And that really built a permission structure for people who consider themselves more on the left or. But not really. Democrats weren't, like, committed to the Democratic Party, but they had previously seen the Democrats as the party of the people who were going to clean up the environment, take on big companies. And now they see sort of the Trump world as that. Do you think that the conventional wisdom kind of missed this?

Mark Caputo (21:55)

I do. I think the conventional wisdom also missed how much the assassination attempt or attempt.

Sarah Longwell (22:02)

We're going to get into that.

Mark Caputo (22:02)

Okay. How much that the lawsuits actually built Trump's brand as a badass. We missed just how important that would be, not just in the primary, but in the general. And one of the things I think we also underestimated, I certainly did, was the acceleration of Americans loss of faith in institutions. And at the Harvard Kennedy School, the heads of the Trump and Harris campaigns, Harris, Biden, Biden, Harris, whatever you want to call it, were there. And Rob Flaherty, the deputy campaign manager for the Democrats for Harris and Biden, had Lamented that the mainstream media was the left's megaphone and how the voters they needed to reach were no longer there because the mainstream media is a thing of institutions and the Democratic Party is an institutional party, and these voters that they're going after here are anti institutionalists. There was a loss of faith. I think I used the word unraveling or unwinding earlier. Trump is the beneficiary of that. You know, in the past, we had outsider establishment versus non establishment. But non establishment here really means sort of representing the alternative world to what we have commonly accepted as being sort of the ground rules for how things operate.

Sarah Longwell (23:18)

Just on the RFK in particular, since he was in the race.

Mark Caputo (23:22)

Yeah.

Sarah Longwell (23:23)

And, you know, he was not pulling super high. I can't even remember what he was nationally. I think he had up to five.

Mark Caputo (23:30)

Or maybe even eight at one point.

Sarah Longwell (23:31)

Then it like it had come back down, you know, as time. Like he wasn't super popular. But I will say, say I did a lot of groups when I was thinking about who was persuadable. You know, I remember I did a group from Arizona and the people who were really down on Trump, frustrated with Trump, a lot of them didn't want to go to Biden or ultimately to Harris. Like, their second choice was rfk. And I remember being on tv, I think I was on Tapper show when something happened where it led the discussion to be about who does RFK pull from? And I was like, from Trump, like the overlap that I was seeing. Yes, I saw him as pulling more from Trump than Biden, meaning that people who were kind of like into Trump, ish, but just ish, really liked rfk. Which meant that once RFK dropped out and endorsed Trump and made it clear they were tight, that moved a real chunk of people.

Mark Caputo (24:25)

Yeah. I wrote a story for us about a Trump world consultant lamenting RFK being in the race at the time, saying that he appeals to the fuck the world voters, and those are our voters. That's what they thought. And I'm not saying everyone here in this, these focus groups are of that ilk, but there is that loss of faith in how the world is operating currently. I mean, it is a thought experiment. If inflation wasn't so high, would we hear these same responses? The inflationary picture for a lot of these working class people, younger people, all younger people, especially nowadays, whether it's Biden or Trump in office or Obama, well, hell, I even remember I graduated under Clinton is, you know, there's a sense when you graduate, like, shit, Everything around here is rigged. Well, now you got a candidate who's telling you, oh yeah, it's rigged. And he's got the whole posse around him saying that's rigged. And they include the richest guy in the world, Elon Musk. So, you know, maybe it's true. These guys are talking to me. I think that's a huge appeal.

Sarah Longwell (25:30)

You know, the other thing, this isn't in here so much, but it is something that I saw a lot of which is there's an interesting universe now that is completely non political. One of them is sports. That's a vertical and that's where the, you end up with kind of a barstool sports. But politics overlap. That led to a certain kind of voter who was engaging in politics almost like as a politics was the side hobby of their main hobby, which was sports. And there's another vertical for that, which is wellness, which is an enormous vertical. You know, people talking about supplements and smoothies and, you know, yeah, RFK really appealed to that group of people or they were interested in his messaging as, which is why you always see him with a shirt off doing like bench pressing.

Mark Caputo (26:19)

And, and let's just, let's just be very clear, that's not seed oils or anything like that. That's straight up testosterone and maybe growth hormone. Okay. Just, just to be very clear about that, just. Yeah, like all you folks out there.

Sarah Longwell (26:31)

With it, whether it's his brain worm or, you know, I'm not sure that RFK is like the top notch guy to be dispensing health advice, but the.

Mark Caputo (26:40)

Guy who said he did heroin and helped him with adhd, like, maybe I'm.

Sarah Longwell (26:44)

Going to eat this bear. Maybe I'm just going to drop it in Central Park. Like, whatever, I'm going to travel, like, is a weird, weird dude. But he really was able to, I think, infiltrate that sort of vertical of wellness, which is just a big online space.

Mark Caputo (26:59)

Huge.

Sarah Longwell (26:59)

That kind of infused people who don't think about politics that much, but think about wellness an awful lot with like, oh yeah, this guy's cool and oh, he's endorsing Trump. We're going to make America healthy again. Like, I see Maha now M a H a as a kind of RFK type voter. This bought Michelle Obama a lot of ridicule. Back when I was coming up, there was, you know, the nanny state of Bloombergism and telling people they couldn't have their Big Gulps. Republicans were like, don't you tell me I can't have my Big Gulp.

Mark Caputo (27:28)

I want this diabetes Goddammit.

Sarah Longwell (27:30)

Yeah, you know, and I was for that, my libertarian heart. But that is not where we are anymore. So what do you make of all of the different ways people could find an entry point into Trump now and how has that changed and sort of over the time Trump's been on the scene?

Mark Caputo (27:45)

Well, one interesting thing just related to ro, RFK is a friend of mine whose wife travels in lots of alternative medicine and health and healing circles said that, quote, all the yoga people are with rfk, and a friend of mine who is a yoga instructor, I asked him that and he said, oh, yeah, even Maha is great. Because in, in Sanskrit it means great. You see, like Mahayana and stuff like that. So it's one of those unavoidable coincidences. I think that the common through line for a lot of these people is they all belong to groups that are ridiculed at one point or another by more establishment voices, more voices on the left who, you know, are on social media like, oh, that's, you know, you're crazy. You're talking about vaccines and all that. You know, you guys are conspiracy theorists. So a lot of people who've ever been called conspiracy theorists, whether fairly or unfairly, finds an entry point there. Anyone who feels disaffected by this situation, the society or the establishment, as I keep using that word, they find an entry point there. Lots of folks who had problems, really struggling with inflation, inflationary pressures, they had an entry point there. So I think there were multiple ones. All right, that's it. No more shouting into the void, because the void isn't listening.

Sarah Longwell (29:05)

In this post election moment, there is.

Mark Caputo (29:07)

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Sarah Longwell (29:10)

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Mark Caputo (29:14)

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Sarah Longwell (29:19)

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Mark Caputo (29:20)

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Sarah Longwell (29:24)

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Sarah Longwell (29:37)

Okay, we heard another common theme from these groups that we heard a little bit in those last two and that you brought up in sort of a different context, which was that the assassination attempt made him seem like a badass. I gotta say, in these post game focus groups, we've just heard a lot of people talking about, like a kindler, gentler Trump. Like, you know, they felt like he's really learned a lot and they felt like the assassination attempt. He's really calmed down. I think you hear people saying this like other leaders that, you know, it's not the same guy we saw in our first two campaigns. He's much more level headed and serious. I just want to play a smattering of this because we just heard a lot of this.

Voter 2 (30:19)

I listened to podcasts that Trump had, and I think Trump toned down his rhetoric a lot. And I realized listening to him and not just listening from what pundit says on tv, like excerpts from the speeches, that he's kind of like, he's smart, he's a comic. You know, he's like, he has a very dry sense of humor. I didn't realize this guy was this way. Right.

Voter 1 (30:39)

I think that, you know, during his first time running, he was like abrupt, arrogant, and I think he finally got a good PR team that basically told him to shut his mouth sometimes. And I feel like that was his biggest downfall through everything. It's like, you know, the little misogynistic comments that turned one person away, even though maybe his actual economic views are great. So I feel like he's already gone through that cycle of he admitted he put the wrong people in office because he trusted people in that political arena. I also feel like this time Trump seemed to calm down a little bit. I still don't love him or anything, but he seemed a little bit more humanized. I don't know if it was after the assassination attempt or just, I don't know, he just seemed, something about him seemed a little, a little bit more humbled or humanized. He's actually changed a lot in my view. Yeah, he was taken to court and all that, but he's more forthright with everyone. He may say crazy things, but I've actually come to, like, look at a lot of things that he said in the past and he was actually right. He may not say things politically correct and it may come across bad, but in the end seems to have a point on a lot of things.

Sarah Longwell (32:00)

I think that he's kind of been.

Voter 1 (32:01)

A little bit shell shocked by the amount of legal proceedings he's had to go through and the attempts on his life. I'm hoping that it makes him a, a more understanding and gentler person.

Sarah Longwell (32:14)

The kindler, gentler, more low key. Trump, I don't remember that guy.

Mark Caputo (32:20)

I'm going to agree in this regard and try to make sense of this generally, is that Trump is 78 now. When he first ran, he was 70. He's therefore, what, like 10, 11% older? 78 is old?

Sarah Longwell (32:35)

Yes.

Mark Caputo (32:36)

And if you go back in time and you look at Trump of 2016 and the whole brand of Trump before then, it's much more energetic, much more kind of up and in your face. This Trump is more low key because he's older, his speech delivery is a little slower, he's less snappy. And so, yes, there is that. I think people are taking his kind of calmer tone as a result of age. You know, quote, Carlito's Way, the movie, never reform. You just run out of steam. And they are then using that as the lens to see these other things. They are right that he had a better team around him this time. That team never tried to tell him, hey, don't tweet that. But they were lucky enough for the majority of this race that Twitter had him banned, and then Elon Musk had him back. And then as a result, he only had his truth social media platform that he was posting on. And he was posting crazy things on it. Right. Or what we in the establishment think are crazy things, I should say. And that didn't really break through the way it did before, because on Twitter, he had a much bigger following. I think those different factors should be accounted for here. And I do think he was a little less inclined to just shitpost all the time, in part because he didn't have all of these people in the campaign telling him not to shitpost. There's an aspect of Trump which is part of his appeal, but also part of his problems, which is he has. I'll be armchair psychologist because my wife accuses me of it as well. Oppositional defiance, disorder. If people tell him not to do something, damn it, he's gonna do it.

Sarah Longwell (34:14)

I think your answer is actually quite a good one. It reminds me of the office. You use Carlito's Way. I'm gonna use the office where that crazy old guy, Creed, he's like, I want one of these blogs. And they set him up. Like, you know, they just open up Word and they. They put at the top, like, creed.blogspot.WordPress. and. And so he's just like, ranting into, like, his Word document. And True Social did that for Trump. He was more or less ranting into the void. Like, I would push things onto Twitter, but it almost didn't feel like Trump because it was a screenshot of something else, a simulacrum.

Mark Caputo (34:46)

Correct.

Sarah Longwell (34:47)

Of Trump, like his cheap imitation. And so he didn't have that. And you are right. I think what we read, because I think we would see this, you'd watch as I have been forced to do watch many of his public appearances and his speeches.

Mark Caputo (34:59)

I watched everyone towards the end, man.

Sarah Longwell (35:01)

It was like, well, and he is. Does sound old. And so you kind of wanted to be like, man, everybody's after Biden because he's so old. Trump sounds old. But for Trump, it actually was reading to people like, well, he just seems calmer. He just seems like, how much damage can the guy do? He's 78 years old. He's. He's like everybody's, you know, grandfather. He really was benefiting from that.

Mark Caputo (35:22)

The Mario Cuomo. Cody is like the philosopher king now, right? And that sure stuck. But there's also a possibility. There's a really great book called the Subliminal how your Unconscious Mind Rules yous Behavior. And it talks about the way in which our minds process information. And this recalls, and I can't recall directly stuff I read in there about how, you know, after the fact, we can create these sort of memories of how things are. And there's also a possibility after the election now, everyone has the sense that could be people just sort of processing, saying, okay, well, why did I. Well, you know, he seems a little more calm and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. So I think that also might have an effect. The Trump campaign did, before the rnc, the Republican National Convention, try to message the kinder, gentler, philosophical Trump. They got the New York Post to write a piece about it. He sat down with them and said, you know, after I got shot, you know, I'm thinking more, et cetera, et cetera, and I'm calm. And he didn't speak for a week, which is rare for Trump. At the convention, you had Trump sitting as the sort of emperor who was looking over the Republican National Convention, and. And when it was his turn to speak after a week of being quiet and his campaign messaging that he was different and philosophical. For the first 19 minutes, as I reported later, quote, I gave the speech you guys wanted me to give, and then he said. I said what I wanted to say. And there are two speeches in one at that convention. There's the first 19 minutes of him trying to be sort of more contained, more controlled, more calm and philosophical and thoughtful. And then the rest of it was just sort of that unhinged revenge fantasy stuff that he never shook and never intended to shake and never did.

Sarah Longwell (37:07)

So there's a lot of times where I really understand where the voters, I guess, where they're coming from. I understand why they're saying that they didn't understand what could have telegraphed that. And your point about him just being older and that he's not on Twitter, that resonates with me. But like the idea that Trump was a kindler, gentler Trump is also like insane. Like he ran a masks off campaign.

Mark Caputo (37:31)

Like, and you think about subscribing to that theory, just to be very clear.

Sarah Longwell (37:34)

But like he ran a masks off, like, no, I'm gonna say that the election was stolen.

Mark Caputo (37:38)

Poison of the blood of the country.

Sarah Longwell (37:40)

Yeah, the poison of the blood of the country. And his closing Madison Square Garden, you know, speech was full. Trump, it was full. Here's what you're gonna get. And so I guess I'm a little bit like, man, people just, either they're retconning it for themselves, say, I think he's learned his lesson, like a Susan Collins thing. I really think he's learned something here. And they're just trying to justify their vote, or there was something about the way that people maybe didn't pay that close attention to Trump this time because he's so familiar. And so they're. Whatever it was in the vibes, whatever it was about, when they saw him in short little bursts, they were like, yeah, yeah, he's still a little bit of crazy, but he seems more chill this time. I think he'll be okay.

Mark Caputo (38:19)

I think that's it. Just to reinforce, don't underestimate how important it is to sound non threatening in this case. It was old. But one of the things that J.D. vance and Marco Rubio, just to name two, you know, who are the vice President and now soon to be Secretary of State, excel at, is selling their ideas, which are very conservative, and when you poll them, in some cases are not in line with where the majority of voters are. And they package it in a very reasonable, digestible, easy to swallow way. And tone matters and presentation matter. And so I think in the case of Trump, don't underestimate just the fact that he did sound a little more tired, a little more calm, and therefore he sounded less crazy. Also, he did run a more competent campaign, won a majority of the vote, won a majority of these swing states, did it quickly and by relatively large margins. And that also might play into people thinking, well, he sort of learned his lesson this time because you know what? He had a good campaign team that didn't do crazy shit. The can I do the crazy shit? But not the campaign. And they had fun too. The guy showed up at McDonald's, he served some fries to some fake customers. This controversy over garbage. So what do they do they got a garbage truck and he drove around in worked.

Sarah Longwell (39:39)

I thought at the time that seemed really dumb because I was like, you're just extending the fact that you called people garbage. But, like, listening to voters, they also heard that Biden called people garbage.

Mark Caputo (39:49)

And like, don't underestimate with Trump, which is one of the things that I didn't get at the time in 2022, which is like one of the things that came across is this guy basically won re election to the primary in large part because he got indicted. And he got indicted initially mainly because he purloined national security documents, lied about it, hid it from the feds and fought them tooth and nail and basically forced them to indict him. Crazy shit at the time that no one should ever do. But because he did that, it helped him win. Like, so the things that we think are common sense, he violates with a certain sort of relish and reflexive nature that somehow works out in his favor. So similarly, he has a comedian who makes a joke about Puerto Rico being a floating island of garbage. And then, you know, Biden screws up and says garbage and they decide to ride this pony and get a garbage truck and draw attention to it. It really puts the old saying that if you've got a problem, hang a lantern on it. That's like a halogen light. And. Well, I think it worked for him.

Sarah Longwell (40:52)

It certainly worked with some of these voters. I mean, I guess I just. And I think it really goes back to your filter point. I remember him on the stage for the debate with Harris where she just destroys him and he's up there howling like a weirdo. They're eating the dogs, they're eating the cats. And you think, who's gonna elect this lunatic? And you know, Americans are.

Mark Caputo (41:14)

But by the way, that made for great tick tock. It was all over Tick tock. They're eating the dogs, they're eating the cats. People put a beat to it. They were dancing, they were doing like the eating the cat thing. Social media and mainstream media, or better said, like news media, are increasingly intertwined. Media is doing things. People are gaining information in just totally different ways now. So I don't want to go this far and say that that helped him, but the tiktoks of eating the dog, eating the cats, and making it sort of popular and funny wasn't as harmful as to Trump as maybe that would have been in a prior media era.

Sarah Longwell (41:53)

Yes, I think in a prior media era, he would not.

Mark Caputo (41:56)

He should have been toast.

Sarah Longwell (41:58)

Yeah, he would have been toast for any a million of these things. And I think because now I've been very focused on this throughout a number of cycles and I've watched how the influence of mainstream media has waned.

Mark Caputo (42:13)

Oh yeah, the mainstream media is the big loser of this election. And that's according to one of Trump's top consultants who told me that I talked to them after the Harvard Kennedy thing and that's what they said.

Sarah Longwell (42:23)

I'm not sure that the mainstream media wouldn't say. I think they're grappling. The mainstream media itself is grappling with.

Mark Caputo (42:29)

The fact that it's pretending to grapple with it but ain't going to do anything to change it. Watch. I'm a creature of mainstream media. I worked for NBC. I, I worked for Politico. I know how those guys think and ultimately they think, well, we didn't get it wrong, the voters did well.

Sarah Longwell (42:42)

I just, I think they're aware that they're influenced is waning.

Mark Caputo (42:45)

Well, they should be. But the honchos who run these things don't figure out why. One of the things that that woman from the focus groups from Ukraine, I believe said was that she liked Trump. She used the word authentic authenticity. And I think this is one of the things with the bulwark. We're an authentic publication. Authenticity is the coin of the realm and it has allowed just the phoniness of mainstream media, especially tv, but all of it sort of meshing together. You know, you watch like ABCs this week. I watched it this Sunday and I suddenly felt like I could totally see why all these people don't trust the media just look like a propaganda fest is they don't think it's real. You got the same people from D.C. talking about the same things, giving the same sorts of opinions and it just doesn't represent a whole bunch of people. I'm not saying a whole bunch of people are correct and that they all need to be platform formed in some sort of messy, loud media democracy. But that's what we have now. We no longer, media wise, have a republic with sort of these established figures representing the people, so to speak. It's a free for all. It is a very democratic media environment.

Sarah Longwell (43:54)

Yeah. It's also, I'm going to say this, and then we got to turn to some J.D. vance sound. I've still been sort of unraveling some of the conversations that we had at this Dealbook event. And one of the things that happened early on is that the way that McCarthy or Jason Miller or Kellyanne Conway were talking about the public. They were like, well, you know, the public doesn't trust the FBI anymore. And you're like, yeah, because you guys told them it's a deep state that's after them. And it's like, you know, the public doesn't trust the mainstream media. I'm like, the ones you call the enemy of the people. There's like, no awareness that they have had a real role in trying to dismantle people's trust.

Mark Caputo (44:30)

Now, I think it's a hot dog guy meme, right? Like, oh, like, who crashed this hot dog car? Like, you, the guy dressed like the hot dog guy? Yeah. I mean, that's how it is.

Sarah Longwell (44:37)

Yeah. Some of that distrust was there before they recognized the distrust. They recognized they could exploit the distrust. It's like Kevin McCarthy, you know, I forget what he was saying. And I'm like, yeah, because you lie to people. Like, why do they believe this? You lie to them, Kevin. You tell them that the election is stolen, and then they believe the election is stolen, and then they use the fact that people believe it as like a shield from, like, what the truth is. And I don't know what to do. Like, in some ways, there's elements of the democratized media, there's elements of it being more authentic that obviously I believe is good and we're a part of. And look, I think a lot of people who fancied themselves arbiter of truth weren't very good at it and let people down. And there's lots of reasons, but at the same time, people do not know where to go for real information, and people don't know who to trust. And the trust deficit is allowing people to fill that with a lot of garbage to bring that word back.

Mark Caputo (45:35)

Misinformation, disinformation are demand side problems to a great degree. Again, as a creature of the mainstream media, I do think that this election and the Biden White House could have been covered in a much better way by a lot of these legacy outlets, which didn't and which came across to tons of people, including me, again, a mainstream media character, as pretty biased. Despite a lot of the media critics out there who say, oh, the problem is the media is amplifying Donald Trump. Well, to go back to that Kennedy School event that featured the Trump and Harris campaign managers, Harris's campaign manager said, the mainstream media is our amplification tool or vehicle. They didn't say that about the mainstream media for Trump. So the more that gets done by the press, so to speak, the more it's going to lend credence to the argument that they're not fair and they're not fair arbiters. But I'm not so naive as to think that all of the criticisms about it are done in good faith. Most of them are not the ones you just mentioned there. Or that remedying that problem is going to bring people back. I just think it's going to be a long process. But ultimately, sites like the Bulwark are going to grow and viewership on networks like NBC are going to decrease in part because there is this authenticity issue. The shows that you see on television, they don't have that gritty reality that podcasts do. The podcast space has just exploded on YouTube like we know we're part of it. And that's because you have these authentic, real conversations with people. And like there's no 30 second commercial break to tell you about the new catheter. You gotta buy that might come a.

Sarah Longwell (47:18)

Little after, but sometimes we do we throw in a little factor, a little one skin.

Mark Caputo (47:22)

Hey, why not? You know, gotta pay the bill.

Sarah Longwell (47:25)

I want to wrap up by talking about J.D. vance. We've spent plenty of time on this show discussing how Vance is unpopular with the Trump to Biden swing voters. A lot of those college educated suburban voters, which, by the way, they were the one place where Harris did fine. It's the one place where she basically held steady. It was all these other groups that she slid with. So listening to these other pool of swing voters, these are Biden to Trump voters. They were much more open to JD Vance, with some exceptions, but more open. So let's listen. He was a nice addition. A nice, I don't want to say breath of fresh air because that's not the correct term, but just a different air. A different air as opposed to the Mike Pence, you know, just a little younger, maybe resonates with more people that he wants to bring on board. So it did make sense and I enjoyed what I heard from him, especially right after they conceded and they won the presidency. His little short, maybe 30 second speech was, was good.

Voter 1 (48:19)

I like J. Vance.

Mark Caputo (48:20)

The more he speaks, the more I like him. But I do think would have made a better decision with Tulsi Gabbard. I think she would have been a better choice. He's really good. I really like him, but I think.

Voter 2 (48:32)

She would have been a better choice.

Voter 1 (48:34)

He's very tactful the way he says things, but not a pushover. And I also saw the movie and I feel like coming from absolutely nothing and a mother with an addiction and overcoming all that to, you know, at that point, he wasn't even a candidate yet. And he's already come so far by enlisting in the military. And that's how he got his education. I just respect someone who comes from nothing and can make that out of themselves. And him and Trump have complete opposite backgrounds, the same beliefs. But it's interesting how two totally different paths got them to that same place together. I was very hopeful that someone that came from poverty will understand the, you know, people struggling and when it would want to fix that. That's my hope for him. But it's like every time he opens up his mouth, he just says something that I just want to punch him in the face. Like he's that guy that's like, women are property, women are only made to have babies. Like he's one of those. So it's like, oh, you could be really great, but you're a frickin misogynist. And so I don't think much of him. Hopefully I'm, you know, proven wrong. But all his interviews, I haven't been very impressed by him.

Mark Caputo (50:01)

He really didn't phase me that much.

Voter 1 (50:04)

When it came to, he's just there, He's a lamp in a living room, he's there and when he's on, I.

Sarah Longwell (50:10)

Guess you realize he's there, but outside of that, you just don't pay attention.

Voter 2 (50:13)

I listened to this long form interviews and I watched the movie, you know, it's like even one, one of my friends said, oh my gosh, like he said about this, you know, old lady being, you know, cats and dogs. I said, listen, anybody could say something stupid. That was really stupid thing to say, you know, but like, you had to listen what he actually has to say. And you know how he talked about abortion and the fact is like, hey, that's his values. The states have to make that decision. And you know how I voted against what, you know, what his beliefs are. And he was okay with that. And so, I mean, he totally won me over. And I think it was just such a smart pick because I think this time Trump didn't pick someone who was politically convenient. I think he picked someone like him who has his values. And I think he was so smart because he's successful and he doesn't blow up the world, you know, so the Republican Party is set to have a very successful next if something happens to Trump because he's getting older. So I became a total fan where at the beginning I was kind of like what my friend said is like, oh my gosh, you know, he's serving like, hold on a second, let's just listen to what he has to say. So I became town. I like him.

Sarah Longwell (51:19)

Hey, mark, where is J.D. vance right now? You've seen him lately. What's he doing?

Mark Caputo (51:23)

He's been parked at Mar A Lago for some time.

Sarah Longwell (51:26)

Like doing the transition or what's up with him?

Mark Caputo (51:28)

He's sitting in on transition meetings. He's, he's shuttling between transition in Mar a Lago and DC to shepherd or as they like to say, Sherpa around these various picks. He is involved, he is doing things. He seems content to hang back as Elon Musk appears much more by Trump's side. But I'm told, I'm informed, it's been assured to me that, yeah, he's in these meetings, he's talking to all the transition folks both before and after and he's helping these cabinet picks. He's basically the minister of the difficult cabinet nominees and he's shepherding them through.

Sarah Longwell (52:04)

Oh, that's fun for him. I love when people are like him or Tulsi or like just like the way that people read. Yeah, some of these guys is like similar in any way ideologically or what they stand for is pretty wild. But what kind of vice president do you think Vance is going to be?

Mark Caputo (52:20)

I don't know. You know, I, I say this being long in the tooth at 51 and he's 40, so he's incredibly accomplished, so I can't judge him harshly for being young. So I'm not sure. I hadn't been prepared for this question and no one's ever asked me before and hadn't thought of it, to be perfectly honest. And maybe that's a deficiency on my part. But his cerebral style for me sort of reminds me a lot of Barack Obama. So I think he would be sort of a technocrat in many respects. But he is ideologically committed and his people around him are as well. They do represent this sort of new populace, you know, anti free trade, reduced foreign policy wing of the Republican Party. So I would see him governing as more isolationist than Trump and in a more kind of populous and technocratic fashion than Trump would like, you know, being much more nitty gritty on trade details and the like. But that's just a guess off the top of my head.

Sarah Longwell (53:19)

All right, one more brain picking question and then I'll let you go. But like, do you think Trump is going to do the things that he said he was going to do? Like, what kind of president do you think Trump's going to be? Because it's funny listening to these Biden to Trump voters, how much what they kind of want is, like, you know, something about the environment, something about clean water. And does Trump care about governing? Like, you say that J.D. vance is ideological. Does Trump care about governing, or did he just need to win to stay out of jail and now he's gonna, like, let the rest of these guys kind of do whatever?

Mark Caputo (53:48)

I think Trump cares about legacy, so he cares about governing as a way of saying, I did this and I accomplished this. To answer your first question, is he going to do the things he said he was going to do? Man, it looks like they're serious about mass deportations, and that can turn really chaotic and really hairy really quickly. Is he going to do the stuff about tariffs? I'm no economist. I guess I will confess a weakness here. I was the only person in 2000 in Palm beach county to intentionally vote for Pat Buchanan because I didn't like nafta. I will admit it. I've never been a free trader. Economists assure us that free trade is great. At the same time, man, these tariffs he's talking about, if he does accomplish that, or some of it, it really could spike inflation even worse. So if the predictions of the tariffs are true as being inflation spikers, on top of the immigration restrictionism that he's talking about in the mass deportations, we could be looking at an inflationary period. So folks might hope not. Might hope he doesn't do what he said he was going to do. But I think he's certainly serious about immigration.

Sarah Longwell (54:52)

What about the retribution stuff?

Mark Caputo (54:54)

Here's where I'm going to be probably wrong. But knowing Pam Bondi, who is the Attorney general pick, former Florida attorney General, I don't see her as being the kind of person who would just be flagrantly going after Bob Mueller or Anthony Fauci or stuff like that. I just. I don't see it. At the same time, what about Cash Patel? Cash Patel might. Technically, he would be working under Pam Bondi. I would see Cash Patel, because he said he would, as being far more likely to do it. So it's an open question as I sort of kind of struggle through the answer here. I note that when Trump sat down with Kristen Welker and said that he thinks that Liz Cheney and company should be jailed.

Sarah Longwell (55:38)

Yeah.

Mark Caputo (55:38)

He then said something to the degree of. And I should have the transcript in front of me. So forgive me if I get it wrong that he doesn't think the doj, however, should prosecute them or his campaign or. Jason Miller subsequently came.

Sarah Longwell (55:52)

Well, she asked a follow up that said, are you going to direct them to investigate these people? He said, no, they'll do what they think. Yeah, I mean, it was a little bit bs Correct.

Mark Caputo (56:02)

Jason Miller, then his spokesperson, was then subsequently out in force on TV saying that, oh, no, no, he's not calling for the incarceration of these people and was sort of walking it back a little. So that suggests to me that he's not going to do it. But I think it is increasing the likelihood, which I think it was one of the first people to kind of post on Twitter of Joe Biden doing blanket mass pardons for lots of different people to short circuit that.

Sarah Longwell (56:31)

Yeah. George Conway and I did a podcast about this where I asked him what he thought about that and he thought it was a very bad idea. And one of his reasons was they'd never accept it because it sort of brings this like, patina of guilt.

Mark Caputo (56:44)

Does it say you have to accept a pardon in the Constitution?

Sarah Longwell (56:47)

No, I don't. Well, you know what, there was like a long argument about this.

Mark Caputo (56:51)

I think this is a case where lawyers can be too smart in the law. I mean, the Constitution gives the President the power to grant pardons, period. That doesn't mean you have to accept it. If you give me a new Mercedes Benz and you put it in my front yard, I might say I'm not going to accept it. But do you think I'm going to let the repo man come and take this free car when I'm going to need it? Probably not.

Sarah Longwell (57:10)

Interesting.

Mark Caputo (57:11)

I mean, you think about, if you're Anthony Fauci, if there is a non zero chance of you being dragged through these investigative processes or having this pardon for you that's just sitting there. Yeah, maybe like, oh, I don't want the pardon. Right. You know, so that scene in Casablanca, you know, I'm against gambling. Oh, you're winning, sir. You know, there's two ways of doing these sorts of things. And I do know that in Trump world, you know, those who are subjected to a lot of the investigations and had a lawyer up and went in debt, there's a huge thirst for revenge just to investigate a lot of people on the left to make them have to pay lawyers. There is a lot of anger and revenge seeking that still exists in Magaville.

Sarah Longwell (57:52)

Oh, well, on that bright and happy note, Mark Caputo, thanks for joining us again and thanks to all of you for listening to another episode of the focus group podcast. Remember to rate and review us on Apple Podcasts, subscribe to The Bulwark on YouTube and become a Bulwark plus member at the Bulwark.com we will be back next week with our final show of 2024 with the one and only Tim Miller. Thanks, everyone. Thanks, Mark.

Mark Caputo (58:16)

Thank you.

Sarah Longwell (58:16)

Bye. By.