The Focus Group Podcast: Episode S4 Ep61 - "Hate Was Up, Prices Were Down" (with Mark Caputo)

Host: Sarah Longwell, Publisher of The Bulwark
Guest: Mark Caputo, National Political Reporter for The Bulwark
Release Date: December 14, 2024
Podcast Description: The Focus Group explores the nuanced opinions of average voters on politics, policy, and current events through extensive focus group discussions led by Sarah Longwell.

1. Introduction and Overview

[00:00]
Sarah Longwell opens the episode by introducing the central theme: understanding why a segment of voters who previously overlooked Donald Trump have decided to support him in the latest election cycle. These voters aren't merely opposing Democrats; their shift signifies a deeper change in worldview and alignment with Trump's policies and persona.

2. Transition of Mark Caputo

[00:00 - 01:40]
A brief, lighthearted exchange occurs as Sarah welcomes Mark Caputo, highlighting his recent transition to Axios and his mastery of the mute button. This segment sets a friendly tone for their in-depth discussion.

3. Trump's Cabinet Picks and Political Dynamics

[01:40 - 06:36]
The conversation delves into the complexities surrounding Trump’s cabinet nominations, focusing on controversial figures like Matt Gaetz and Pete Hegseth.

• Commitment to Controversial Nominees:
  Mark Caputo discusses Trump's wavering support for figures like Hegseth, likening him to "the guy looking over his shoulder at the other woman," implying Trump's uncertain commitment ([02:26]).

• Senate Support and Key Players:
  Caputo highlights Senator Tom Cotton's pivotal role as a "kingmaker" within the GOP, asserting that Cotton believes all of Trump's appointees will eventually be confirmed ([04:15]).

• Potential Roadblocks:
  The discussion identifies potential opposition from senators like Joni Ernst, Roger Wicker, and Rick Scott, noting that Trump's team is optimistic about securing confirmations despite internal GOP dissent ([05:06]).

4. Voter Shift from Biden to Trump

[06:36 - 25:30]
Sarah shifts focus to the heart of the episode: the Biden-to-Trump switch voters.

• Voters’ Motivations:
  One voter ([08:31]) articulates dissatisfaction with Biden's perceived lack of leadership compared to Trump's steadfastness. Concerns about law and order, immigration, and economic stability drive their support for Trump despite personal dislikes.

  "I have to admit, as much as I hate Donald Trump, when he was in office, I saw more in my paycheck. The prices were down, things were better..."
  

• Anti-Establishment Sentiment:
  Mark Caputo observes that these voters represent a new GOP coalition characterized by low social trust and anti-institutionalism. He notes that their information sources are fragmented, often bypassing mainstream media filters ([14:27]).

  "These people have just these very different sources of information that they are gravitating toward and that don't use kind of the mainstream media as a filter."
  

• Influence of Surrogates:
  The endorsements from figures like Elon Musk, RFK, and Tulsi Gabbard play a significant role in attracting these voters. Their involvement represents a strategic alignment of diverse interests within the Trump coalition ([17:13]).

• Perceptions of Media and Authenticity:
  Voters express a distrust of mainstream media, valuing authenticity in Trump's messaging. This shift is attributed to the media's perceived inefficacy in representing their concerns and the rise of decentralized information sources ([15:53]).

5. Media Influence and Trust Deficit

[25:30 - 44:37]
The discussion explores the diminished role of mainstream media and the rise of alternative media platforms.

• Decline of Mainstream Media:
  Caputo emphasizes that mainstream media has lost its influence, becoming a "thing of institutions" that fails to resonate with anti-establishment voters. This gap has been filled by podcasts, YouTube, and other decentralized media outlets ([42:23]).

• Authenticity vs. Phoniness:
  Sarah highlights the importance of authenticity, contrasting it with the perceived phoniness of mainstream media. This authenticity appeals to voters who feel disconnected from traditional media narratives ([43:54]).

  "Authenticity is the coin of the realm and it has allowed just the phoniness of mainstream media... to not represent a whole bunch of people."
  

• Misinformation and Disinformation:
  Both Sarah and Mark discuss how misinformation thrives in this fragmented media landscape, exacerbating trust deficits and making it difficult for voters to find reliable information ([45:35]).

6. Perceptions of Trump's Character and Leadership Style

[44:37 - 41:58]
Voters provide insights into their evolving perceptions of Trump post-election.

• Calmer and More Humanized Trump:
  Some voters perceive Trump as having become more subdued and thoughtful, attributing this change to his age and experiences, including the assassination attempt.

  "He's more level headed and serious... something about him seemed a little bit more humbled or humanized."
  

• Enduring Divisiveness:
  Despite recognizing a calmer demeanor, voters acknowledge that Trump remains a divisive figure who inspires both support and animosity.

  "He is who he is. He's not fake... he is who he is. But he does tend to say some pretty abrasive stuff."
  

• Impact of Age and Media Strategy:
  Mark Caputo notes that Trump's aging and different media strategies (such as reduced use of Twitter) contribute to perceptions of him being less erratic, making him more palatable to certain voters ([32:35]).

7. Role and Reception of J.D. Vance

[47:18 - 57:52]
The episode transitions to discussing J.D. Vance, the Vice President nominee.

• Voter Reception:
  Voters express mixed feelings about Vance. While some appreciate his background of rising from poverty and value his ideological alignment with Trump, others criticize his rhetoric and personal statements.

  "He's someone who comes from nothing and can make that out of themselves... But he's a frickin misogynist."
  

• Caputo’s Analysis:
  Mark Caputo compares Vance’s cerebral style to Barack Obama’s, suggesting he might adopt a more technocratic approach while maintaining ideological commitments. He also highlights Vance's role in shepherding controversial cabinet nominees through the transition process ([52:20]).

  "I think he would be governing as more isolationist than Trump and in a more populous and technocratic fashion..."
  

• Future Prospects:
  Caputo speculates on Vance’s potential as Vice President, considering his ability to connect with voters who value personal success stories and ideological consistency, despite some reservations about his public demeanor ([53:19]).

8. Future of Trump's Presidency and Governing Style

[53:19 - 57:52]
The conversation shifts to predictions about Trump's potential governance.

• Commitment to Policy:
  Caputo believes Trump is motivated by legacy and governance as a means to leave his mark. He expresses skepticism about Trump's ability to balance his combative nature with effective policymaking.

  "He cares about legacy, so he cares about governing as a way of saying, I did this and I accomplished this."
  

• Potential Policies and Challenges:
  Key areas of focus include immigration restrictions, tariffs, and economic policies. Caputo warns that aggressive tariff implementations could exacerbate inflation, while mass deportations might lead to significant societal disruptions.

  "If he does accomplish [tariffs], it really could spike inflation even worse."
  

• Retribution and Legal Actions:
  The discussion touches on Trump's rhetoric regarding legal actions against political opponents. Caputo remains cautious, noting the ambiguity in Trump's statements and the potential for retaliatory investigations.

  "There's a lot of anger and revenge seeking that still exists in Magaville."
  

9. Conclusion

[57:52 - End]
Sarah wraps up the episode by reflecting on the complexities of voter behavior and the shifting political landscape. She emphasizes the importance of authentic conversations in understanding voter sentiments and previews upcoming episodes focused on political analysis.

Key Takeaways:

• Voter Dynamics: A new segment of voters, disillusioned with both Democratic and traditional Republican establishments, have shifted their support to Trump based on anti-establishment sentiments and alignment with specific policies.

• Cabinet Challenges: Trump's cabinet nominations face internal GOP resistance, but key figures like Tom Cotton offer optimism for successful confirmations.

• Media Landscape: The decline of mainstream media's influence has led voters to seek information from alternative sources, fostering a sense of authenticity that resonates with anti-establishment sentiments.

• Perceptions of Trump: Voters recognize a calmer, more humanized Trump post-election but remain divided on his divisive rhetoric and leadership style.

• J.D. Vance’s Role: As Vice President, Vance is seen as a technocratic figure with ideological leanings that align with Trump, though his public persona receives mixed reviews from voters.

• Future Governance: Trump's focus on legacy and commitment to specific policies like immigration and tariffs pose both opportunities and challenges, potentially impacting the economy and societal stability.

• Trust Deficit: A significant loss of trust in traditional institutions and media has reshaped voter behavior, with authenticity and alternative information sources playing crucial roles in political alignment.

Notable Quotes:

• Voter 1 [08:31]:
  “He just took the reins while it just felt like she was just there... But with him, you know, he stood his ground... If you want to be president, we need to hear you, we need to see you.”

• Mark Caputo [14:27]:
  “These people have just these very different sources of information that they are gravitating toward and that don't use kind of the mainstream media as a filter.”

• Voter 1 [12:49]:
  “Border and law, the abortion and everything, it's on you. You want to have 20, that's on you... I think he's a piece of shit. I think he's crazy... But I do believe he really does love his country.”

• Voter 2 [25:30]:
  “So this time around the last few years, I shifted to watching more independent media... I voted for Elon Musk, I voted for RFK... I love the fact that they represent, you know, running country as a business.”

• Mark Caputo [32:35]:
  “This Trump is more low key because he's older, his speech delivery is a little slower, he's less snappy... People are taking his kind of calmer tone as a result of age.”

• Mark Caputo [53:48]:
  “I think Trump cares about legacy, so he cares about governing as a way of saying, I did this and I accomplished this.”

This episode offers a comprehensive exploration of the evolving political landscape, highlighting the intricate motivations behind voter shifts, the strategic maneuvers within Trump's administration, and the profound impact of media trust deficits on contemporary politics. Mark Caputo provides insightful analysis, complementing Sarah Longwell's facilitation of authentic voter perspectives.