The Focus Group Podcast: S5 Ep1 - The Caretaker Presidency (with Evan Osnos)
Release Date: January 18, 2025
Host: Sarah Longwell, Publisher of The Bulwark
Guest: Evan Osnos, Staff Writer at The New Yorker

Introduction

In the inaugural episode of 2025, Sarah Longwell dives deep into the legacy of Joe Biden's presidency with Evan Osnos, a seasoned journalist and author known for his in-depth coverage of American politics. As the United States transitions from Biden to Donald Trump, this episode dissects voter sentiments, Biden's leadership style, and the factors shaping his presidential legacy.

Voter Perspectives on Biden's Presidency

The focus group participants—the persuadable voters—present a predominantly critical view of Biden's tenure. Their concerns range from his perceived stagnation and age-related capabilities to specific policy decisions that have left them disillusioned.

Leadership and Communication

Many voters expressed frustration with Biden’s leadership style and communication efficacy:

• Voter 2 (10:03): "He's kind of a career politician, and I don't really know what he's accomplished."

• Voter 2 (11:14): "President, but I think that's what we need right now. Me, I can't take having a pig in office anymore."

Sarah Longwell highlights these sentiments, noting the voters' perception of Biden as an "old school" politician who lacks dynamic presence and fails to connect authentically with the electorate.

Policy Decisions and Governance

Key policy areas where voters felt Biden faltered include:

• Afghanistan Withdrawal: Viewed as chaotic and poorly managed.

  • Voter 2 (23:35): "Afghanistan could have been handled a lot better."

• Economic Concerns: Inflation and economic policies leading to uncertainty about long-term fiscal health.

  • Voter 2 (23:56): "He doesn't really give out a lot of plans or details. You know, what's going on, what's happening, things like that."

• Pardoning Hunter Biden: Seen as a breach of trust and presidential integrity.

  • Voter 2 (53:52): "He went back on his word... He deserved to be punished accordingly."

Age and Cognitive Concerns

Age emerged as a significant factor undermining Biden’s perceived effectiveness:

• Voter 2 (23:39): "As a very old man, he's mediocre in his performance."

Voters questioned Biden's physical and mental capacity to govern, fearing that his age would impede his ability to fulfill presidential duties effectively.

Evan Osnos’ Analysis

Evan Osnos provides a comprehensive analysis of the focus group feedback, shedding light on the underlying reasons for Biden's perceived shortcomings.

Shallow Support Base

Osnos identifies that Biden's support during his initial election was largely anti-Trump rather than genuine enthusiasm for his leadership:

• Osnos (12:02): "What you hear in those voices was a shallow reservoir of support for Joe Biden... it was very shallow."

This superficial backing meant that Biden lacked a robust foundation to weather his administration's challenges.

Misjudgment of Public Sentiment

Biden and his team overestimated the depth of voter support, banking on Biden’s personal attributes to transcend policy failures:

• Osnos (15:32): "He owed almost no room to make people unhappy."

This miscalculation led to strategic missteps, especially as negative sentiments regarding inflation and foreign policy began to erode his support.

Communication Failures

Biden's reluctance to adopt a more charismatic and visible communication style contributed to voter disengagement:

• Osnos (33:28): "They [Democrats] wanted... somebody charismatic, not technocratic."

His administration's strategy of maintaining a low profile contrasted sharply with the high visibility tactics employed by Trump, leaving Biden perceived as disconnected.

Psychological Factors

Osnos delves into the psychological motivations behind Biden’s decisions, particularly the pardon of his son, Hunter Biden:

• Osnos (56:49): "I think at a certain point he said, you know, I'm not going to allow one last agony, and so fuck him."

This act, driven by personal loyalty, further tarnished Biden’s legacy and breached the trust of his voter base.

Lessons for the Democratic Party

The episode underscores critical lessons for Democrats aiming to reclaim voter trust and electoral success.

Need for Charismatic Leadership

Both Sarah and Osnos emphasize the necessity for Democrats to nominate candidates who possess charisma and the ability to inspire movements, contrasting sharply with Biden's perceived mediocrity.

• Osnos (48:51): "People feel hungry for leadership now."

Improved Communication Strategies

Effective communication that resonates with voters' emotions and conveys clear policy intentions is paramount. Biden’s administration failed to establish a meaningful connection, resulting in a disconnect between policy achievements and public awareness.

Building a Robust Support Base

Osnos stresses the importance of cultivating genuine enthusiasm among voters, rather than relying solely on opposition to political adversaries.

Positive Reflections from Democrats

Despite the predominant criticism, some Democratic focus group participants acknowledged positive aspects of Biden’s presidency.

COVID-19 Response

Biden's management of the pandemic received praise for stabilizing the situation:

• Voter 1 (41:28): "His rollout of the vaccines worked. We're here."

Infrastructure Initiatives

The passage of the infrastructure bill was recognized as a significant achievement, albeit with mixed feelings about its execution:

• Voter 1 (42:35): "His infrastructure bill... eventually that will be a good thing."

Economic Policies

Some participants appreciated Biden’s actions to stabilize the economy, though acknowledgment of long-term effects remains limited.

• Voter 3 (25:14): "I think overall I was happy. I felt like he ran a decent presidency."

Impact of Hunter Biden's Pardon

The pardon of Hunter Biden emerged as a contentious issue, causing fractures even within the Democratic base.

Distrust and Breach of Promise

Voters felt betrayed by Biden’s reversal on legal promises, viewing it as a personal vendetta that undermined his integrity:

• Voter 2 (54:52): "He went back on his word... You couldn't even tell me the sun is shining and I got on sunglasses. Can't trust you anymore."

Calls for Policy Reform

Some participants advocated for abolishing the presidential pardon power altogether to prevent future abuses:

• Voter 1 (55:33): "Let's get rid of presidential pardons now."

Concluding Reflections on Biden’s Legacy

Evan Osnos and Sarah Longwell conclude the discussion by contemplating Biden’s enduring impact despite the controversies.

Lasting Policy Contributions

Osnos acknowledges that certain policies, such as prescription medication caps, will benefit Americans long after Biden's presidency:

• Osnos (62:17): "On a day-to-day basis... people in need of prescription medication pay less for it than they did before."

Historical Judgment

Both agree that history will recognize Biden for his contributions to daily American life, even as his presidency is marred by perceived failures and personal decisions that damaged his legacy.

• Osnos (62:17): "One of the things they'll say is that he made some contributions to the daily life of Americans that will be paying dividends for years to come."

Final Thoughts

The episode of The Focus Group Podcast provides a nuanced exploration of Joe Biden's presidency through the lens of voter feedback and journalistic analysis. While acknowledging some administrative successes, the overwhelming sentiment among persuadable voters tilts towards disillusionment, driven by concerns over leadership quality, policy execution, and personal integrity. Evan Osnos emphasizes the need for the Democratic Party to evolve its leadership and communication strategies to resonate more effectively with an electorate hungry for authentic and inspiring guidance.

For those interested in a deeper dive into the complexities of Biden’s presidency and its ramifications for American politics, tuning into this episode offers invaluable insights.