← The Focus Group Podcast
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- [00:00]
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- [02:03]
Sarah Longwell
Hello everyone. Welcome to the focus group podcast. I'm Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark, and this week I'm going to check in on how voters have been talking about Donald Trump's first hundred days. The first hundred days. Big milestone here. So Trump's approval rating is sitting around 48% with his disapproval around 49%. So these numbers are worse than they were on Inauguration day, but better than I'd like them to be. I don't know. Under the hood. The Biden to Trump voters we've been talking to are splitting into a couple of different camps, including some who don't think they're getting what they voted for, or maybe they're getting a little too much of what they voted for. And so that's what we're going to explore today. My guest is Mark Leibovich, staff writer at the Atlantic and author of thank youk for your Servitude, Donald Trump's Washington and the Price of Some Mission. He also wrote and it's not in Here, this Town. I remember sitting in my car reading this Town on my, like, Kindle app, which was new for me then, and I loved it. I thought, who is this writer? He's so good.
- [03:08]
Mark Leibovich
Were you actually driving while you did this, Sarah? Because I would not want to, you know, hazard you or any other motorists.
- [03:14]
Sarah Longwell
I'm not the safest of drivers. Don't be on the road with me. I'm reading people's books the whole way.
- [03:19]
Mark Leibovich
You know what, if you're going to do it, might as well be mine.
- [03:21]
Sarah Longwell
Might as well be yours.
- [03:23]
Mark Leibovich
Yeah. It's great to be with you.
- [03:24]
Sarah Longwell
Speaking of things that you've written, you wrote an article right after the election called In Praise of Clarity. Love this piece. And the basic thesis was that Democrats had a chance at a fresh start because this last election was such an unambiguous rejection of their brand. So fast forward to this week. And a few Senate Democrats just helped Republicans pass their spending package. So how do you think that fresh start's going?
- [03:47]
Mark Leibovich
Well, I mean, you can have a fresh start and have a sluggish start at the same time. You know, I guess when I wrote that, the context was you don't have the, well, if only the Electoral college was different or, well, if the popular vote went differently. There was not foreign interference. I mean, there were a lot of instant rationalizations in 2016 for why this was a fluke, why this was a runoff. You know, day one, literally, you have this women's march, the resistance, as it were. I guess that was coined right around then, looked to be very, very well codified immediately. I think that was sort of helped along by what still seemed like a very bifurcated election. There was a sense of grievance among Democrats, less so now. You know, look, obviously Democrats have not found their voice. They have not found their leaders. They are not reading from the same music sheet at this point. But I wouldn't have expected otherwise. I mean, these things do not coalesce this quickly. And I agree. I think Trump's poll numbers are maybe a little higher than I thought, but I also think they're basically meaningless right now. I mean, Biden's were what, well into the 50s at this time four years ago, right. Maybe 60s, right?
- [04:55]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. So I had looked at this because I'd done a comparison because people are like, well, Trump's high at 53. And I was like, well, Biden was at like 62 in March. And so there's about a 10 point gap. So Trump is high relative to him, but not high relative to anyone else in the sort of last many presidents that we've had right now.
- [05:15]
Mark Leibovich
I agree. I also think, though, that Trump is high relative to how his first eight weeks have gone, which looks to me like they haven't gone well. I mean, inflation is still a big problem. Seems to be a lot of chaos. The tariffs are not popular FAA stuff. I mean, the Doge stuff is not clean by any chance, anyway, he seems to be weathering it.
- [05:35]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. And look, we're going to get into some of the sound on this. I am starting to, and have now for a couple of weeks, started to pick up some of the. It's not buyer's remorse exactly. Although sometimes I use that phrase and I probably shouldn't because buyer's remorse suggests they wanted to maybe purchase a different thing or like they want to give it back and get something else. That's not really true because nobody's saying, boy, I just really wish I'd voted for Kamala. It's more that they're like, is this what we're doing? I thought it was going to be maybe slightly more chill, but they call it a honeymoon period for a reason, which is that people are still doing a little wait and see. Yeah, this is a lot, but maybe it'll be fine. We're going to wait and see. Or I'm nervous about this, but one of the things that I, I want to start with for this conversation is some of the sound that we collected after Trump's speech to the joint session of Congress. You can call it State of the Union, whatever you want, because I think it tells us a lot about how these voters are responding to the early days of Trump 2.0. And I found it particularly interesting to hear what people paid attention to and remembered versus what they didn't. Let's listen.
- [06:41]
Focus Group Participant 1
And it was interesting to see all the good stuff that was happening. Like the Democrats couldn't even clap for like the Lake and Riley thing, the boy who had cancer, and he's just like, like, I understand we have our differences, but if you guys aren't even willing to support, you know, a child with cancer or who finally defeated cancer or the Lake and Riley, it's like, this is why nobody, not nobody, millions of people still voted for that party business. Why people cannot resonate with you guys. Like, if you guys are against somebody that you guys are willing to, like, not even support. Even the minute good things.
- [07:15]
Mark Leibovich
I'm still kind of shocked when I see him speak of how much time he's actually paying attention to Teleprompter versus in 2016, seriously, where he was. He still kind of lips off every once in a while, but he's staying on, literally the script. And then that goes to the nice point about what he's saying. I listened to her see if there's anything new, and I was like, that's not new, that's not new. So at the end of it, I was like, he didn't say anything new. And then I realized, oh, he's actually being consistent. The things he said he was going to do.
- [07:42]
Focus Group Participant 2
I thought he was very calm, composed. He wasn't so much on tangents. I've did my research and actually watched a few of his interviews from his 30s all the way through the past decade, and he's a lot more composed compared to 2016. A lot of things he was saying, they were fact. You know, those, you know, reducing, you know, finding the debt, legal immigration, even, you know, when he was presenting DJ with his Secret Service badge or, you know, I guess Lincoln Ryan's parents were there. It's like, you can dislike someone, but you don't have to have a casualty of like, the little boy had cancer. And then I heard people say, oh, well, he, I guess, removed cancer funding. But the little boy had cancer there. Like, why does that matter? He survived. He's being honored. And if you can't support that or stand for that, then I don't really think you should be anywhere near the White House. But actually, I like Trump's speech. He was a lot more presidential this time. One thing I didn't like about the Democrats, especially the Jasmine Crockett person, just so unprofessional to me.
- [08:52]
Focus Group Participant 3
I think overall the speech was like reiterating what he is already doing. So I don't have any problem with the speech. I actually have problem with both the party's members, how they acted more like childish. As many of already the people here said there is no point like bringing in placard saying, this is not normal. And there is also no point someone else coming in and trying to take it from your hand and tear it off. It's like, these are our representatives, like, at, like, adults, like, actually work side by side, act like adults to work for the people of this country.
- [09:31]
Sarah Longwell
So here's what was crazy to me after listening to people's reactions to Trump's speech, which is the substance mattered very, very little. And what they remembered was they were mad at Democrats, and I heard a lot of this commentary. They were mad at Democrats for how they behaved to Trump and not clapping for the boy who had cancer, because the Democrats had made a strategic decision to sit there in stony silence through everything. And so when Trump did his, like, feel good moments and, you know, pumped up the kid who had brain cancer who wanted to be a Secret Service agent, like, those were good made for TV moments. And Democrats looked to these voters like they were sort of ghouls for not cheering for that. That always strikes me as interesting when what people took away from Trump's speech was, Democrats are bad. The Democrats sat there and did nothing. And still the Democrats were like, the worst part of the speech. That's one thing. Then the second thing is how they're all like, Trump seems so presidential. Like, he's so much better now than he used to be. He's chiller than he used to be. I do hear that a lot from people. This idea that Trump has mellowed, you know, he's got his act together. Look, he's on the prompter. But one thing I've been turning over in my head since the election is just this point, right? Trump is not abnormal to people anymore, and people have no problem thinking of him as presidential. So if anything, they expect other presidential candidates to, like, act like him. So these voters wanted the same level of respect shown to him as any president, right? They don't see anything abnormal about the way that he behaves. So when Democrats treat him as abnormal, it doesn't land with these voters, right? They're like, why are Democrats acting like this? Donald Trump is being so normal. So how do Democrats navigate that? Or, like, what do you think is going on here?
- [11:11]
Mark Leibovich
Well, whatever they're doing, it didn't work. One thing that this speech reminds me of is, God, how much I hate these speeches now. I mean, I dread States of the Union at this point. You know, whether Biden's the president, you know, Trump is the president, whoever. I mean, these things are. No substance is Transacted. Really? You know, it would be nice if there was a bipartisan moment in which the poor kid with cancer were applauded. That would have been a nice moment. It didn't happen. Look, I mean, Democrats had a very, I think, ineffectual response. Many of them didn't show up. I mean, it was a home game. Pretty much everyone I know who didn't have to watch it for work, whether they work for the government or they are a journalist or something, didn't watch it. I mean, it just seemed like a very, very eye rolling thing. No matter what side you're on, what.
- [12:00]
Sarah Longwell
Do you do when you want to communicate that Trump is abnormal, that this is not normal, which was the sign that one of them was holding. And I of course agree with this particular sentiment. Like what is happen right now is not normal. And yet Democrats are kind of caught in this bind with voters where Trump is perfectly normal to them now. He has been normalized. And so how did Democrats help the American people understand that what is happening is not normal, but at the same time not look like they're the crazy ones?
- [12:31]
Mark Leibovich
Basically their biggest allies on this are Trump himself, because he eventually does something on his own that makes him more unpopular, that undermines whatever goodwill there is out there. Not so much with his base. But no Democrat needs to say anything to help Donald Trump be Donald Trump. I mean, I do think the vacuum here is that Democrats just are so starved for leaders, any leaders, and their messaging has been so disconnected for so, so long. I mean, if you just look again, these first two months, Trump has given Democrats so much to work with, message wise. You know, look, it takes only eight weeks to ruin a perfectly good economy, right? The whole idea of chaos everywhere, inflation not getting better, getting worse. Arguably it's three main points and there's just no one is looking to them at this point and no one is really asserting themselves to make these cases. But you're not going to out gimmick Donald Trump. First of all, it's cute, but it's not winning over anybody. But look, I mean, Democrats desperately need someone to emerge. And since Barack Obama was elected in 2008, they just have put off finding their future leaders. You know, it was Hillary's turn in 2016 and it's like, well, this is an emergency in 2020. Let's get old, Joe. You know, I think Biden, I would certainly say, and I think most people I know would agree that made a catastrophic mistake and even seeking a second term. And now we don't have Any new leaders and there's no resistance to Trump that anyone can coalesce around just now. But again, still very early.
- [14:07]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. Turning back to Trump for a second and then I'm going to get into how the voters perceive this. First hundred days. What do you think of his first hundred days?
- [14:18]
Mark Leibovich
One of the things that's striking to me and having listened to some of the focus group before, and I've heard this throughout, really his two terms is he pats himself on the back all the time and his supporters pat him on the back all the time about, oh, promises made, promises kept. He's doing exactly what he's going to do. I mean, some of the focus group people said exactly that in his first term. If you look at like the five big applause lines of the 2016 campaign, it was, we're going to balance the budget so quickly, it'll be so easy. I mean, he did the absolute reverse of that. Build a wall, Mexico's going to pay for it didn't happen. Drain the swamp. You know, the swamp has never been healthier. What else? Infrastructure didn't happen. I mean, basically whatever he campaigned on, the only thing maybe was the tax cut, which was all basically Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan to it was mortal ammies. This time I'm going to end inflation. It's going to be so easy. I'm going to end the Russia, Ukraine war in 24 hours. I'm going to get us out of these foreign entanglements. I mean, there was nothing said in the campaign about the Panama Canal, about Canada, about Greenland, about occupying Gaza. You know, Elon Musk. No one paid much attention to him. No one knew that he was going to play the role he did. I mean, the whole idea that he's doing exactly what he said he's going to do is complete nonsense and a complete triumph in messaging, albeit dishonest messaging by Republicans.
- [15:39]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. All right, focus group listeners, I have a podcast rack for you. In wild times like these, do you ever just want to break the rules? I don't mean like by Greenland, break the rules, but I know it can be important to rethink some of the dumb rules that we follow for no good reason. Well, that's exactly what friend of the bulwark Glenn Gaelich gets into on his show, Break fake rules. Here, Glenn and guests dig into the self imposed rules that hold us back, particularly in philanthropy, to uncover which rules we should commit to breaking together for a better society. Just break fake rules in a cool way, not in an Elon way. You'll Hear even more from me and other insiders in politics, government, philanthropy, media, and more who are refusing to live by fake rules. If you've ever wondered why we live by certain rules or dreamed of what becomes possible when we do things differently, tune in to Break Fake Rules. New episodes drop monthly wherever you get your podcasts. Well, I want to sort of sort through, because these are people who voted for Biden, and then they switched to Trump. And so I've been sort of obsessed with these voters here in the first hundred days, because I'm wondering, are people getting what they asked for? Are they glad they switched? And so I would say over the last couple months, these voters have fallen into kind of two broad camps on Trump's performance. So there are the hopeful people who are glad he's doing something, and, like, they see all the motion, they see all the different things, and they're like, he's doing stuff, he's doing stuff. And they, I think, are starved after kind of four years of not hearing a lot from a president. So they're like, really into the action. And then there are those who are getting squeamish about what's happening. And I would say the dominant squeamishness isn't just that they're like, they don't like what's happening. It's more that they really wanted that laser focus on the economy, and they're starting to feel like things are not getting better. It's not even getting paid attention to, and maybe it's getting worse. So let's start with kind of the hopeful crowd and how these folks talk about Donald Trump.
- [17:52]
Focus Group Participant 2
I think things are going pretty fast. It's kind of like one of those things where he has a method to his madness. And right now, we're just in those beginning stages to kind of see what the outcome is going to be. But at least he's acting on it. I mean, everything is very much like, you can see it happening. Me, personally, I have a lot of federal workers in my family. I just stopped working for the federal government, like, less than a year ago, too. So I'm actually really happy about that because I would have been one of the individuals who would have had to come back into work and experience the huge, drastic change.
- [18:26]
Focus Group Participant 1
A lot was said in the last four years, but nothing was really done. And finally, like, yes, everything's been moving fast. But I think because we're so used to nothing happening the last four years, where it's like, now stuff is happening within the first month, where it's like, Stuff shouldn't take four years for one thing to happen when it could be done in, like, the first week, which was made happen. So I think things are going well. We'll see what happens the next three, six months, but hopefully things keep improving.
- [18:52]
Mark Leibovich
I think Trump is a somewhat of a dish of contradiction, but I think that's his style. Y'all are talking about the speed with which things have happened, and yet I'm just glad that it's being done in a little bit more systematic way than the first time when he was president. I think that he's doing a better job of looking knowledgeable and possibly being prepared. I have a son that lives in England, and so my international radar is up, and so I'm a little concerned about the way things have been handled from an international relationship standpoint. But I think there's probably some method to the madness. I would say you have a lot of sort of imperfect people making a lot of big, broad changes, and there's some good to it, some bad to it, but for the most part, I'm excited. I mean, I've been a Democrat for a long time and just I've had enough. And with all the campaign promises, he's doing what he said he was going to do.
- [19:50]
HelloFresh Advertiser
So it's not a surprise.
- [19:51]
Mark Leibovich
Yes, some of the strokes a bit broad, sure. But overall, I think I've had enough. I mean, my food bill is bigger than my mortgage right now. Everything that's happening, it's happening a lot faster than I thought. But everything that comes up, I say, yep. I remember him saying he was going to do that. I remember him saying he can do that. So at least, you know, my little scorecard, I'm like, yep. Which is a little different than the first time he was around, because he didn't get to transportation. That was something I was watching.
- [20:18]
Focus Group Participant 2
Of course, Elon always said, you can't fix a moving car, so it looks chaotic right now. But the fact that he is finding waste and fraud, and even though his team, I think, are like young treasury officials, they are finding these issues that we've all been complaining about our tax money going to. So I don't really have a problem with Elon. I mean, he's a billionaire. I know some people had a problem with him getting the financial or our information, but everyone has their information in the dark Web had their information, so I don't really see that as a big problem. Also, I think Elon's artistic. I think he even spoke about that. So he is a little kooky. Anyway, and he has some issues, but I think him being a businessman, and I think that's also how Trump looks at it. America is a corporation, so in order to prevent a corporation from going bankrupt or insolvent, you have to make cuts.
- [21:16]
Sarah Longwell
Okay. So the thing that strikes me the most is how every single person knows what Doge is. And having done focus groups now for years and years and years, the idea that there's a government program or something is happening in the government, the idea that every voter would know what it is is actually pretty extraordinary. And so I think it demonstrates well the implications of having a TV producer as president. I know he's not the producer, but, like, he understands big productions. And people spent four years telling me how Joe Biden didn't do anything, and I still hear it all the time. You heard a few people say it in these clips. He didn't do anything, which is not true. So I've got my own ideas about why this is. But what do you take away from this idea that everyone knows what Doge is? Everyone can sort of see what's happening and has at least, like, an impression of what he's doing. They could name, like, a few things. All of them.
- [22:13]
Mark Leibovich
Yeah. I mean, I think it is extraordinary. Like, what was Al Gore's thing was reinventing government back in the Clinton days, which was, you know, a pretty big operation. I'm guessing that if you interviewed 20 voters, maybe two or three would be familiar with the reinventing government initiative. Obviously, whole different world, no Internet. I do think part of this does go to something I think we talked about, Sarah, which is not only is Trump a shamelessly effective communicator and marketer and salesman, in all of those words, he fills a major, major vaccine vacuum of communication from the last administration. Literally, one of the focus group people from before just said, look, the last four years with Biden, there was a whole lot of talk and no action whatsoever. I mean, in fact, I mean, you could make a case that it was 180 degrees the opposite. I mean, there was a lot of action. There was no talk whatsoever. And it wasn't just Biden. I mean, Biden was probably one of the worst presidential communicators we had in a long, long time, you know, and it did trickle down to what was a very ineffective messaging operation. I think it helps, yes, that Trump was a TV producer, is a TV producer, but also that, you know, the message machine of the right, whether it's Fox, whether it's podcasters, whether it's, you know, Various things on the Internet is so powerful right now, so amplified by each other. It is a massive echo chamber of many cases, misinformation. But it is very, very powerful, and it works very closely in lockstep with Trump and his organization and the White House and so forth. So I think that helps again. I mean, I think we'll see how it plays over time. But I do think, you know, to the point I think we talked about, it fills a vacuum. And so this was a vacuum that is just dying to be filled by the most willing filler of said vacuum out there.
- [24:05]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, you and I did talk about this for one of your pieces, because it's long been my contention that Trump, and actually, this is a formulation a little bit by my buddy Jonathan last here at the Bulwark about, like, our nervous systems and what they're built for. So Trump really aggravated all of our nervous Systems back in 2016 with, like, the barrage of the way he communicated and following tweet to tweet. But at the end of the day, over time, right, we sort of got used to this notion that the President United States was setting the conversation each day. We were reacting to it. Yes, it was in all caps, and it was insane back then. It was on Twitter. And then Joe Biden came in with this. We're going to restore normalcy, Right? We're going to go back to sort of, you can ignore me. You don't have to know what your president's thinking on the toilet every morning. And, like, I'm not going to fire somebody every day and create constant drama. And we were also in the middle of a pandemic. And, like, there were just enough people who wanted to go back to that sort of normality or who were frustrated by Trump during COVID or kind of sick of him. But 4 years of not being communicated with after everybody had gotten used to it just left people with, like, a hole in their lives around how presidents communicate with them. And I think there's a reason that people would sort of accuse the media of wanting Trump back, and it's because Trump was a content machine. You're not a strategist. So I'm not looking for you to tell me what Democrats should do.
- [25:36]
Mark Leibovich
Well, I'm smarter than all the strategists.
- [25:38]
Sarah Longwell
But you are smart.
- [25:39]
Mark Leibovich
If they did ask me, I would tell them, but they never asked.
- [25:42]
Sarah Longwell
But you were in the communications business. And I guess this really does come down to how Donald Trump has changed the communications infrastructure for presidents. Like, people were used to getting people talking directly to us now. And Trump has that parasocial relationship with his voters, like Democrats. They're just not there yet on how they build that. It's like you got to catch up with the times. You got to. It's like a wholesale change in orientation.
- [26:08]
Mark Leibovich
Yeah, I mean, the most sophisticated I could probably be on this is extremely unsophisticated, which is ideally a critical mass of the country would benefit from some kind of Goldilocks approach in which you had someone who had the communication will that Donald Trump has the, you know, sense of decency that maybe Joe Biden had, I don't know, someone with a basic instinct for unity, for goodwill, but who also had such a forced personality that was not easily vilified as a liberal populist or a conservative populist in and so forth. I mean, I guess somewhat, maybe Obama had a little of that at first, but, you know, he was quickly vilified by the right. But I do think there are so many lessons from the Trump communication strategy that I actually sort of expected the Biden team to co opt, which is just not being afraid to be a salesman as president, not being afraid to boast even a little bit. I mean, Biden, yeah, maybe he was normal, maybe he was boring, maybe he was nonconforming, communicative, but he also was retro. I mean, he went back to sort of an 70s 80s style of pure reserve. And you know, look, Democrats desperately need some personalities. They need someone who just feels fresh and again, I mean, maybe they'll emerge, maybe they won't. But I mean, I'm a big believer in the Harris wall sort of after the fact, postmortem, which said, you know, I wish they hadn't been so scripted, so cautious, so forth. And I think walls to some degree is trying to course correct now after the fact. And it looks like he'll probably run again. But I don't know. I think that there are countless lessons that Democrats should try to learn from Donald Trump's approach that they haven't even begun to try to do yet.
- [28:01]
Sarah Longwell
And let me just because you brought up the right wing media ecosystem, I just want to chat about this for one second. There's also a Trump media ecosystem and it's built on like an incentive structure. Trump created a financial infrastructure for people who said, well, the mainstream media is telling us why Trump's bad all the time. I'm looking for people to tell me why Trump is good and the Democrats are bad. And that it turns out, drove a lot of clicks. And Trump was like I'm gonna give you endless content about why we're great, and then you can come along behind me, influencer, CL class, or whatever you are, podcasters, and you can tell people why you're great and you'll make money and I'll be president. You don't want to be like, dear Democrats, our advice is, please be shameless. Create financial incentives for all your communicators. Like, that's not it.
- [28:55]
Mark Leibovich
Right.
- [28:55]
Sarah Longwell
And yet it is the thing that has changed the game for the right in a way that the left is just nowhere close to replicating.
- [29:03]
Mark Leibovich
Right. I mean, a lot of the infrastructure was in place before. I mean, Fox News was extremely powerful before Trump came along, and they had an extremely powerful message machine. But it was usually in opposition. I mean, it was in opposition to Obama, in opposition to even Clinton, I guess. But Democrats in general, Hillary certainly. And Trump's relationship with Fox hasn't been a straight line either. I mean, they've certainly had their moments, but Trump has made them. I mean, he has given them a rallying figure as opposed to Obama as a negative rally figure or the Clintons as a negative rallying figure and so forth. So Democrats have failed at this a million different ways, whether it's, you know, the failure of Air America, you know, the relatively lower ratings of the non Fox cable outlets. And I mean, guess podcasts is sort of maybe an area where it's more of an even playing field at this point, but who knows? We've sort of said for a while that it's just, you know, conservative things, cults of personality, and now MAGA and Donald Trump, easier to just sort of catch the lizard brains of your listeners or your viewers or what have you. And Donald Trump is perfect for that because he's an entertainer also. But Democrats, I do think that they have obviously a lot of work to do in finding and creating outlets that now Republicans and Trumpers are many, many laps ahead on.
- [30:23]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, I do think they're going to have to find figures and leaders that people get excited and feel incentivized to go out and like slug away for, to kind of help build that ecosystem. It's not just sort of the infrastructure alone. Okay, all right. This is like a whole other podcast that we could go on, on for a long time. So I want to talk now about the other crowd, though, because this is coming up now in, I think a lot of these groups where they supported Trump, they voted for him, but they're a little bit like shell shocked by what he's doing, and they're not sure they love it. Let's listen.
- [31:01]
Focus Group Participant 4
I think Trump is moving, like everybody's saying, kind of too fast and everything, but I'm more concerned about his long term words are going to get us and where we're going to be at. And the way he's going about things I think is I don't know if it's really touch and go, especially like with the IRS people and all of them and everything. Having them fill out a form trying to find out what they did last week is kind of something that shouldn't be part of losing a job and stuff.
- [31:33]
Mark Leibovich
It is moving a lot quicker than I expected. Certain things such as the federal workers, it's a little bit concerning and then I'm a investor on the side. So look at my portfolio. The last three days just been terrible. So that's not helping any. But other than that it's evolving.
- [31:50]
Focus Group Participant 2
I wanted a lot of change as far as inflation and the price of everything. So I haven't seen any real changes there. As a matter of fact, I think for me things are worse as far as the inflation and then a lot of the communications that I'm used to getting about certain things such as the extent of certain diseases are not coming like I would like. So I'm not real happy right now with how things are going at all.
- [32:26]
Focus Group Participant 4
Trump only got Elon in there because he funded him and backed him up and support him. I don't think Trump really wanted Elon there. I think it's taken away Trump's being in the center of the circle. I think it could have been done a little bit more discreetly and more checks and balance and find out what exactly is going on instead of throwing Elon out there and say, hey, here's your fish. Go see what you can get this pond and see what you know, what you catch.
- [32:54]
Focus Group Participant 3
I didn't expect him to be in that role or even when I'm voting for Trump. I knew that he is there. But there are so many billionaires or so many other powers support any candidacy. Right. It doesn't mean that they need to be 100% involved, like cutting jobs, changing things matter. Like he's not also an elected person. He was like put there by Trump.
- [33:18]
Mark Leibovich
I'm disappointed right now in the seeming lack of planning here. There's a lot of babies getting tossed out with the bath water, to use an old fashioned phrase in this first few weeks. And of course, as usual, and I'm disappointed about this with President Trump because he served before. We're Just forfeiting respect internationally daily. If we had a drinking game where everyone took a drink when the word reverse course or walking this back, we'd be drunk in 20 minutes.
- [33:53]
Focus Group Participant 3
Federal government employee cut was done very, I would say brutishly. And there is a process for everything. I want change. That's why I voted in different ways. But there should be a manner and also relationship that we built across the country.
- [34:11]
Mark Leibovich
I feel like things are going really, really good and really, really bad at the exact same time. Things I think are going really, really bad, like firing the people who handle nuclear weapons and then realizing who you fire and then having to about switch. Like, hey, hey, hey, don't go. Don't know, we need you. We can't have a nuclear disaster come back. Like, that's crazy. Even to the point of like, okay, we've had the Constitution for like over 200 years. Even if you're not like the world's most constitutional expert, the whole thing, like, you're born here, you're a citizen. That was decided long before any of us were ever born, way before. So like to say, hey, I know we've got this like 200 year constitution, but you know what? I think I'll just make an executive order. Like, it's crazy. We had a whole constitution civically so that people can just show up and just make rules just because. So that's crazy. Things that I think are going good. I'm glad that something's being done about children being able to get hormone therapy treatments and sex treatments, like before they're adolescent, before they even get a chance mature.
- [35:28]
Sarah Longwell
Okay, I want to talk about that last guy specifically, just for a second, because this to me is really illustrative of something where he's like, he sees it. He's like, this is insane. They fired a bunch of people who are controlled of the nuclear arsenal. They're dismantling the Constitution. And I don't know, the Constitution's important. It's there so that people can't just come in and be like, I make the rules all of a sudden. But I do like that the trans kids can't get their hormone therapy. And like he gives that equal weight in the very, very good, very, very bad camp. But what do you think when you hear voters talking about this particular piece where they're like, I'm not sure I like this. What stood out to you?
- [36:08]
Mark Leibovich
Yeah, I mean, couple things. I mean, one, as a reporter, I mean, you're always looking for connections and trends. It's like, okay, we just Heard like, you know, nine, ten randomish voices. And what's the connective tissue here? You know, I don't do this as much as you do, obviously, but it's always surprising that everyone latches on to one thing that sort of they pick out of the noise machine or an issue that's important to them, whether it's nuclear safety or trans kids getting hormones and so forth. The other thing is just how many people still very early on in their comments will say, well, the speed of this is really refreshing, or something to that effect. Just the fact of the change. We like it. And I guess that's almost by definition the two components of a honeymoon. There is newness, there is a perception and reality actually of change. And, you know, Trump just by nature of his Persona. I mean, it's a velocity, it's a drinking from a fire hose kind of thing. And, you know, that still seems exhilarating to a number of people when you hear them saying that now. But if you listen to focus groups from like six weeks ago, it's less. So you heard a lot of the same, now he's doing something. This is really exciting. Well, this is what we brought him in for. We voted for change. We're getting it more muted now compared to then.
- [37:25]
Sarah Longwell
I mean, I did an episode that was basically called at least he's doing something, because that is what we were hearing from everybody. And they had a lot of people saying, like, are you picking up any regret? And I said, not really. And it was really in the last couple of weeks. And part of this was kind of Elon related. Like, they all know what Doge is. They're sort of on board with cutting waste, fraud and abuse, on board with move fast, break things. And then there's the people who are like, shouldn't there be some kind of way in which this is being evaluated? Aren't checks and balances still a thing?
- [38:02]
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- [39:59]
Sarah Longwell
And I want to be clear actually about something because something happened to me where I went on Nicole Wallace and I talked about hearing the very first tinges of the buyer's remorse a couple weeks ago and somebody like memed me like did like a yass queen resistance thing of like Trump voters regret what they're doing. And I was like, oh no. Because that is not the preponderance of what I'm hearing. The preponderance of what I'm hearing from Trump voters writ large is they're like, heck yes. Like let's drink liberal tears. Let's hit the gas. This is great. Elon's in there, RFK is in there, Trump's in there and they're getting this thing done and you guys hate it. Go cry. That is, I think most Trump voters, the people that I'm talking to are people who are first time Trump voters, right? They voted for Biden last time and so they are in a category of people that had to be persuaded this last time. Time to vote not for the Democrats but for Trump, after choosing not to last time. So they're an interesting group. It's sort of like the. What's that? Lifo. Last in, first out. Like, they tend to be the ones. They're not deep, committed maga, so they can be the ones who could swing back. And in this group and a couple of the groups, the word fast and too fast, like, was real. Like, they were starting to get very uncomfortable with how much stuff was happening. And I wonder if you think I have a. I don't know if this is a theory, but it seems to me like Trump is trying to go so fast, in part, and that's why he relies on this idea that he has a mandate. Right. Right. After winning the election in the first hundred days, he can dismantle a lot of stuff and say, this is what people wanted me to do. Because as soon as he's down, he's in the 30s, he's gonna have a much harder time jamming through what he wants to get done.
- [41:45]
Mark Leibovich
Yeah. No, it's interesting because when I talk to people about just this, about, you know, change maybe moving too fast and so forth, a lot of people mentioned to me that was with a bunch of voters in. In Kentucky recently and FAA stuff, there have been no plane crashes in however many years. Suddenly you hear stories of planes falling out of the sky. Right. You hear people talking about the measles thing in Texas. Right. You know, there are complicated reasons for this, but I mean, this seems like, well, this is the price of moving too fast. You know, the gentleman before mentioned the nuclear stuff, which. Yeah, I mean, it's part of the unevenness and seemingly the chaos that could have a really big and catastrophic effect on this. So I do think that over time there will be more examples that possibly, you know, hopefully nothing terrible happens, but people are latching on to things that they assume or, you know, suspect could be a product of whatever speed is happening now that they don't really fully understand. And you're going to probably be hearing less about, oh, well, this is the change we voted for because there'll be more material to work with.
- [42:50]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. I also think what's going to happen is at some point, all of these moves start to have negative personal consequences on real people. Like when you do USAID first and you do the government agencies first first. Like, that takes time to trickle down to everyone else. Like in D.C. right now, lots of people have lost their jobs. Lots of people are freaked out. Lots of crazy stuff is happening at the agencies. If you're in this city because it's a. It's a political town and it's filled with people who work at these agencies like, you are getting just the wildest ride. But if you're out somewhere beyond, you know, you're not necessarily feeling the consequences of this yet.
- [43:34]
Mark Leibovich
Right. I think, look, there's two groups that I'm guessing Trump and Trump's people, and mostly Trump's voters, have zero sympathy for. It's our neighbors, Right. Who we know who are either losing jobs or worried about losing jobs or their workplace has been turned upside down. And also, frankly, I mean, you know, the USAID stuff is or will be very soon catastrophic to the people that USAID actually helps in poor countries around the world. But eventually, you know, it's going to come home and not to Washington, D.C. or, you know, somewhere in Africa. It's going to be Social Security checks, it's going to be, I don't know, public health stuff, like, whether it's measles or whatever, safety stuff, whether it's fda, faa, whatever. And that's where, you know, these things go from being symbolic to real life concerns. And in a way, this is an easy first, kind of bunch of cuts and targets for the Trump administration to go after.
- [44:30]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. Actually, just one last thing really quickly. For the first couple months, it felt like Elon was everywhere. Do you feel like he's been benched a little bit? I feel like he's been pulled back slightly, maybe a little.
- [44:41]
Mark Leibovich
Not as much as I thought he would have been. I mean, I would have thought that this marriage would have lasted a month. So it still seems to be going fairly strong. Yeah. Not sure what Trump says or, or thinks about him privately. I mean, it would seem that him taking so much oxygen from an administration that he obviously wants to control and be the center of would be problematic for him. You know, on the other hand, he's also both a force multiplier of chaos and also, you know, someone who looks like an attack dog or attack doge. No, I mean, he is the. A kind of deputy chaos guy or, or sort of folk partner in chaos that helps him achieve whatever it is he wants to achieve.
- [45:22]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. And as Kara Swisher said when she was on this podcast, he's also like heat shield. Right. Like Elon's numbers go down, Trump's like, whatever. Those aren't my numbers. And you do hear a lot of Elon concern among these voters. Okay. I want to close on another possible roadblock for Trump. That has been part of what I'm hearing from Voters when they express their nervousness about the future, and that is the tariffs. So I know from listening to voters for all the years and really going up to the election that, like, things are too expensive. Things are too expensive. You heard it all the time. It's why a lot of people want to change. And so they wanted Trump to bring costs down. He's a businessman. He's going to make things cheaper. Trump promised he would make things cheaper. And people are like, my costs are not going down. We heard some of this in the Sound before. And one of the things that I think is hurting people's sense of going forward is that they're worried about what the tariffs are going to do. Let's listen.
- [46:22]
Focus Group Participant 4
As far as the tariffs go and everything, I think he's doing the right thing, but I think he's, he's trying to give people the benefit of doubt. He's telling, you know, we're going to be another month, try to work out something. Because, like, right now I'm in the market, I want to buy a new car, but I'm scared because with the tariffs right now, what's going to happen? You know, I don't want to say it's going to hit me, but you know, it's going to come to the sum or some way or another.
- [46:45]
Focus Group Participant 3
Like, I work on the automotive sector and the tariff is going to hit them big. Like, it might be one month down, but it doesn't matter for automotives because you can't actually move the factory overnight. So it's a lot to take in because it will impact, like, lots of people's job and my job also. So I am going to get impacted first time. I'm not saying that I'm going to lose a job, but there is going to be cuts, definitely, because if you have to bring in parts from Mexico, from Canada, and if you have to spend more money on those, you definitely will cut money somewhere else because we don't have infinity of those. Right.
- [47:24]
Focus Group Participant 4
Not knowing what's going to happen down the road, it's going to hit us one way or another. But just how, how big of an impact it's going to make is what we got to find out how people are going to deal with it and how consumers are going to react to it. I mean, everything you buy, you know, is overseas from somewhere. Bringing everything to the States would be great, but it's not going to happen overnight.
- [47:45]
Focus Group Participant 1
The reason he's putting them is main concern. He was like talking about, like, the fentanyl crisis of he's like, same thing with Mexico and Canada. He's like, as long as you guys are able to lower this and stop this, he's like, then we'll kind of like remove the tariffs, which I understand. So I'm hoping that they can negotiate being like, hey, like, we'll do our job, we'll lower the tariffs on both ends and then it'll maybe go back to like normal. I don't know. I feel like that's going to happen. Actually. I don't think the tariffs are going to last for too long because I feel like it's going to hurt both countries anyways.
- [48:16]
Sarah Longwell
So, you know, if you look at any of the consumer sentiment dropping and the markets moving, it really is because of the tariffs. You know, people have jobs, they live in the economy, and so they can tell you when stuff that's happening is going to impact their sector, whether it's people who are trying to buy a car or they work in the automotive industry. But I also hear people work for contractors or they work in the healthcare industry. And they'll say like, well, I haven't lost my job yet, but people around me have or I know people who have. And I guess why aren't Democrats making a bigger deal about these tariffs? Because, I mean, of all the economic policies that have broken through, tariffs are the things that you hear voters say, say, I'm worried about this, I don't want it.
- [48:59]
Mark Leibovich
Yeah. I mean, tariffs, I think to some degree, it's kind of an academic concept in some ways. I mean, I think it's something that, at least before Trump, you know, economists talked about tariffs, tariffs bad. I mean, free market conservative Republicans say tariffs bad. I mean, the more pro tariff part of the political spectrum used to be. Dick Gephardt, Democrats, right. Like sort of like a lot of Rust Belt kind of Democrats who, who believe that there was not an even playing field. Trump loves tariffs partly because it's a vehicle for him to fight with people who are. Were our friends. Right. I mean, no one wanted a war with Canada. No one wanted a war with Panama. I mean, Mexico maybe, but it's like what Canadians can do about the spread of fentanyl across the border is commensurate to the kind of damage that this is supposedly motivating. You know, Donald Trump to inflict on both the Canadian and the American economy is kind of nuts if you sort of think about it. But you're right, though. These people, and I was sort of struck and frankly quite impressed by the level of sophistication about people knowing the effects of what tariffs can do. I mean, me as a consumer, I would not have had that level of sophistication. But I also, not only do people live in the economy, they live in the stock market. And they seem to be like the biggest cause in a lot of people's minds about inflation not getting better. You know, you would think that that itself would be problematic for Trump because it's not like he's given a great academic explanation for why tariffs are good. I mean, he just takes the brute force well, we're being ripped off and that's going to stop now. So therefore this is happening and it shows. I'm getting tough with China and Canada and what have you. So I don't know. I do think, though, that, that there is a bigger awareness than I would have thought about the damage or potential damage of tariffs.
- [50:48]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. I mean, I do think the thing that is in Trump's numbers more under the hood, not just in the fave on fave, but it's specifically when you ask people about his handling of the economy, which has always been his best number. People give Trump businessman vibes on the economy, and those numbers are bad for Trump right now. And this is where to me, the peril of the future lies in these kinds of voters who are giving them the benefit of the doubt. They're still open minded, they're still on a honeymoon. So they're waiting and seeing. But like a macro good economy ate Joe Biden's presidency alive because of the inflation and the price of things. I mean, it's all you hear from me. How do you think things are going in the country? Bad. Everything's too expensive. Housing's too expensive, gas is too expensive, grocery store bills are too expensive. Trump was elected more or less to fix that. And the more he does all this other stuff, there is a group of voters who are like, that is not what I elected you to do. I want stuff to get cheaper. And that's it.
- [51:51]
Mark Leibovich
Yeah, this batch of polls that came out in the last week or so over last weekend, a few of them did the lacking indicator of the economy voters, you know, being lower for Trump, like a really bad number for Trump compared to what it was the first term compared to his overall rating, which is pretty good. I mean, high 40s in a lot of these surveys to me is quite problematic potentially for Trump because, look, the economy voters were his base. I mean, you know, it's a different kind of base than the demographic MAGA hardcore base. But I mean, the sort of Suburban. You know, I assume a lot of Biden to Trump voters here, they loved him on the economy. I assume it would be like a top two or three issue for them when they were casting their vote coming in, you know, last fall. And, you know, that doesn't improve easily either. And it's not like the economy is showing, you know, great signs, and, you know, inflation isn't showing great signs. So that's something that Trump has to be worried about, or as people certainly do.
- [52:50]
Sarah Longwell
I just want to ask you as a last question, because, you know, some of these folks talking about tariffs, we're talking about the foreign policy implications, and sort of speaking of Trump's fraying relationships around the world. You spent Trump's inauguration day in Greenland. Is it the red, white and blue land? Is that where we're going with this?
- [53:07]
Mark Leibovich
Not yet, man, but you never know. He does, you know, every time he brings it up that, you know, it just, like, it just freaks out so many people there. And actually in Europe, too, I believe it.
- [53:17]
Sarah Longwell
I mean, because maybe in America, we. We have, for better or worse, again, going back to our nervous systems, developed some of these defense mechanisms around the. Yeah, he's not gonna do that. This is a distraction. This is one of those things. He's like the laser pointer getting us all to focus on this while he dismantles the government. But if you're Canadian, you're like, this madman. Is America going to invade us and they're starting a trade war with us? Why wouldn't they start a regular war? Like, if I were Canadian, I wouldn't like it one bit.
- [53:43]
Mark Leibovich
I wouldn't either. And it's existential. This is not a side issue for them. So in Greenland, I love being able to refer to.
- [53:49]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, tell me about Greenland.
- [53:50]
Mark Leibovich
Well, so first of all, I was there for, like, almost 12 days. Originally. It was supposed to be five days.
- [53:55]
Sarah Longwell
So is it nice? Do we even want it?
- [53:57]
Mark Leibovich
Well, the minerals are. I thought it was beautiful. I mean, what I saw was beautiful was really weird. I never thought I'd go there. People were lovely, although there are very few of them. I mean, it's like the capital of nuke is like 15,000. The whole country is, like, smaller than, you know, Bethesda, Maryland, and it's like the size of three. Texas's right. I didn't get out of Nuke much because I was snowed into Nuuk, which means that, like, 10 different flights were canceled. That could have gotten me out of the country. I wouldn't Recommend, you know, 12 days in January for anyone. But I thought it was kind of beautiful. And there'll be direct flights to Nuke from Newark starting in June, at least in the warm weather months. So I would recommend that to anyone. But what was interesting, though, is going into the inauguration, they thought, well, it's kind of quirky. Biggest country in the world. And Donald Trump keeps mentioning us, like, wow, we're getting and some attention. You know, usually we're just this innocuous slab on the map that no one really thinks about. Maybe he'll mention us. Maybe we'll get a line in the inauguration address. So I went to some watch party for a bunch of members of Parliament and political activists in the House of Parliament, right? And they were all sort of like, watching. And after like, maybe five minutes, when it was clear that Trump was taking a rather menacing tone with his address, everyone was like, please don't mention us. Don't mention us. We don't want to be anywhere near this speech. Then he mentioned Panama. They mentioned the Gulf of America. I think he mentioned Canada. Usually they come after Canada, but then he flipped right directly to Mars. So they left Greenland out. So there was definitely a sigh of relief there. But look, if Trump wants to do something predatory to Greenland, there's nothing they can do about it. I mean, I guess theoretically, NATO troops, you know, would defend a NATO territory story on behalf of Denmark, which owns it. But I would love to avoid that. And I'm pretty sure the. The Greenlanders and the Danish and pretty much everyone else would like to avoid that too. But, you know, again, this all kind of operates on Donald Trump's whim.
- [55:50]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, well, on that note. On that note. All right, well, Greenland, we wish you the best and with your independence, we.
- [56:00]
Mark Leibovich
It is beautiful and, and the food was good and the people were great. And don't go in January.
- [56:05]
Sarah Longwell
Okay, Noted. Mark Leibovich. Thank you so much for joining us. And thanks to all of you for listening to another episode of the focus group podcast. We'll be back next week, but in the meantime, remember to rate and review us on Apple Podcasts, subscribe to The Bulwark on YouTube and become a Bulwark plus member at the Bulwark.com See you later.