The Focus Group Podcast: S5 Ep17 - Trump Had ONE JOB (with Dave Weigel)
Released on May 10, 2025
Host: Sarah Longwell
Guest: Dave Weigel, Author of Semaphore's Americana Newsletter

Introduction

In the 17th episode of Season 5 of The Focus Group Podcast, host Sarah Longwell engages in a deep conversation with political analyst Dave Weigel. The episode centers on the prevailing sentiments among Trump voters, particularly focusing on the disillusionment with President Donald Trump's performance in his second term. The discussion delves into Trump's fluctuating approval ratings, the Democratic Party's messaging challenges, economic concerns, and the potential implications for future elections.

Trump's Declining Approval and Voter Discontent

Timestamp: 01:07 - 04:56

Sarah Longwell opens the discussion by highlighting the significant drop in Donald Trump's approval ratings—from 52% on Inauguration Day to around 44% by early May 2025. This decline reflects growing dissatisfaction among nearly half of the country that initially supported Trump. Longwell emphasizes that while disapproval is rising, it does not necessarily translate to a shift toward the Democratic Party. Instead, many unhappy Trump voters remain disengaged from the Democrats.

Sarah Longwell [01:07]: "Donald Trump's falling approval ratings... almost a chunk of the nearly 50% of the country that voted for Trump aren't thrilled with him right now."

Dave Weigel adds that this decline is part of a natural trend for presidents in office but notes unique factors at play during Trump's second term. He points out that Trump has effectively eliminated much of the internal GOP opposition while the Democrats struggle to present a compelling alternative.

Dave Weigel [03:19]: "They have less brio and less confidence that things are clicking... they don't have a theory of what the government looks like when they take over. They had one for Biden. They don't right now."

Democratic Party's Messaging Challenges

Timestamp: 06:55 - 16:34

The conversation shifts to the Democratic Party's difficulties in establishing a clear and resonant message. Longwell discusses how the GOP's shift toward populist and protectionist policies, such as tariffs—a stance traditionally associated with Democrats—has muddied the political landscape. She argues that Republicans are now encroaching on areas once dominated by Democrats, making it harder for the latter to define their platform.

Sarah Longwell [04:54]: "Republicans are kind of eating Democrats lunch with a certain slice of Democrat voters."

Weigel concurs, noting that Democrats lack a cohesive vision akin to past administrations. He criticizes the party for not having a robust plan to counter Trump's unorthodox approaches, such as tariff implementations and executive actions.

Dave Weigel [06:55]: "They don't have a theory of what the government looks like when they take over."

Economic Anxiety and Broken Promises

Timestamp: 09:29 - 25:36

Economic issues emerge as a central theme, with focus group participants expressing significant anxiety over inflation and rising prices—issues Trump had promised to alleviate. Longwell highlights the disconnect between Trump's promises to lower grocery bills and the reality of persistent or escalating costs.

Sarah Longwell [10:32]: "They're trying to add more tariffs, we're going to do this. And that's not in their brains about, like, well, I'm just going to lie to people and say I can lower prices when I can't."

Weigel emphasizes that while Trump’s promises have not materialized, Democrats struggle to offer tangible alternatives. He critiques the Democrats for vague messaging and an inability to convincingly address economic concerns.

Dave Weigel [12:23]: "It's hard to do that, except you can warn that something bad's gonna happen... Your personal economic situation's not good."

Longwell proposes that Democrats need to present bold, aspirational policies to regain voter trust, contrasting Trump's simplistic and often misleading promises.

Sarah Longwell [23:48]: "They need kind of big, bold things now... Instead of arguing over different modes of how you might tweak the health care system."

Voter Frustration with Trump's Performance

Timestamp: 26:51 - 48:49

The episode features audio clips from focus groups consisting of 2024 Trump voters who are dissatisfied with his administration. These voters express frustration over unmet economic promises, increased tariffs, and policies perceived as harmful to various communities, including minority groups and individuals with autism.

Focus Group Participant [41:42]: "Everyone else has mentioned, it's nothing that we had hoped for by voting for him. I feel that we were lied to."

Longwell and Weigel discuss how this discontent does not translate into support for the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, with many voters either considering not voting or supporting third-party candidates instead.

Sarah Longwell [43:00]: "Nobody said they would... it's not a bottom falling out, and that is not a boy."

Democrats' Struggle to Attack Trump Effectively

Timestamp: 49:50 - 56:51

Weigel explores why Democrats have been less aggressive in attacking Trump's actions compared to their initial term. He attributes this to Democrats' uncertainty about how to counter Trump's multifaceted agenda and new policy issues, such as his stance on transgender rights and executive overreach. The lack of a unified and confident response hampers their ability to mobilize opposition effectively.

Dave Weigel [51:55]: "They have not stuck their neck out... they're saying Republicans want to talk about that issue. But I want to talk about Medicaid."

Potential for Democratic Offense and Future Elections

Timestamp: 55:52 - 58:XX

Longwell suggests that despite the challenges, there are opportunities for Democrats to capitalize on voter frustration with Trump by addressing corruption and executive overreach more directly. However, both she and Weigel acknowledge the difficulty in transitioning from defensive to offensive strategies without a clear and compelling counter-narrative.

Sarah Longwell [55:52]: "There is a lot of opportunity for Democrats to go on offense against this guy because voters are spooked."

Weigel concludes that while Democrats have avenues to challenge Trump's influence, they must develop coherent and assertive policy positions to resonate with voters who are increasingly disillusioned with the current administration.

Conclusion and Takeaways

The episode underscores a pivotal moment in American politics where traditional party lines are blurred, and voter dissatisfaction creates both challenges and opportunities. Trump's declining approval among his base reveals cracks in his support, yet the lack of a strong Democratic response leaves many voters without a clear alternative. The discussion highlights the necessity for the Democratic Party to innovate and articulate a bold vision to reclaim disenchanted voters and address pressing economic and social issues effectively.

Key Quotes:

• Sarah Longwell [01:07]: "Donald Trump's falling approval ratings... almost a chunk of the nearly 50% of the country that voted for Trump aren't thrilled with him right now."

• Dave Weigel [03:19]: "They don't have a theory of what the government looks like when they take over."

• Sarah Longwell [10:32]: "You're just going to lie to people and say I can lower prices when I can't."

• Dave Weigel [12:23]: "Your personal economic situation's not good."

• Dave Weigel [51:55]: "They have not stuck their neck out... they're saying Republicans want to talk about that issue. But I want to talk about Medicaid."

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