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- [01:42]
Sarah Longwell
Bring you my conversation with Annie Carney from the New York Times about the Republicans big beautiful bill and Republican voters view of Congress right now. We taped the show a few hours before the bill actually passed the House, so we're talking about the bill's fate in the future tense throughout the show. Just FYI. Annie was also up on the Hill reporting when we taped the show, so you're going to catch a little background noise up there. It was a busy day, but you can hear perfectly fine with that. Enjoy my conversation with Andy Carney. We'll be back next week with some cool raw audio for you guys foreign and welcome to the Focus Group Podcast. I'm Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark, and this week we're covering an institution that's functioning worse than a cyber truck left out in the snow. The United States Congress could also be my voice. I've been a little sick, so sorry about that. We're gearing up for quite possibly the only big legislative battle of Trump's term, the one over his big beautiful bill, the one that's probably going to extend the 2017 tax cuts and kick quite a few people off of Medicaid. We're going to get some initial reactions to the legislation and talk about where Republican voters heads are with the bill and with their leaders in Congress. My guest today is Annie Carney, congressional reporter for the New York Times and co author of Madhouse How Donald Trump MAGA Mean Girls, a former used car salesman, a Florida Nepo baby, and a man with rats in his walls Broke Congress. What a subhead. Annie, thanks for being here.
- [03:23]
Annie Carney
Thank you for having me.
- [03:25]
Sarah Longwell
Oh, I'm so pumped you're here. I love a good student of Congress for a congressional conversation, you know. Although I gotta tell you, it's funny, I was on Nicole the other day and I think it was Claire McCaskill, she was like, well, what do voters say about Congress? She was talking, we were talking about the tariffs. She was like, don't they want to tell Trump to stop it? And I was like, oh, buddy. Claire, not only do they not talk about Congress unless we're specifically asking them, but they're like pretty a okay with like the Trump agenda. That's what they're there for. So, you know, the bill stuff is happening as we speak. In fact, listeners should know that when this airs, more will have been revealed than what we know today as we tape on Wednesday. But tell me just your read right now of this Congress and the fact that this is the one thing they gotta do this time. How they doing so far?
- [04:14]
Annie Carney
I mean, the top line, I think, is that this Congress is about ceding all of their power to Trump. I've noticed that Mike Johnson has really turned the job into a super staffer to the President instead of the head of a co equal branch of government. And it's not a moment of divided government. So basically how Congress works is Trump comes and tells them what he wants and eventually they cave. But so far they haven't really passed legislation. They kowtowed to Trump and I was listening to your focus groups and that seems to be what Republican voters want them to be doing. That was a revelation to me. They don't like when they step out of line or block Trump's agenda. So that's the story of this Congress, like top line. On the Senate side, we saw it. With the confirmation of his entire cabinet, they've turned themselves into a rubber stamp.
- [05:01]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, and I mean part of that, because you've been watching Congress a long time, even if that hasn't always been your beat. But like the story of the Republican Party is that dissenters are gone and sycophants are rewarded. And it really is a bottom up proposition in a lot of ways. Like you're right, the voters that we were listening to for this one, they all voted for Trump in 2020. They voted for him again in 2024, but they were older Trump voters and it's because they're predomina receiving Social Security and Medicare, which we wanted to ask them about because they're older. I guess there's a part of even me. Even after listening to voters for such a long time, we thought there might be some old school Republican stuff in them and there is kind of. But it's been totally supplanted by their desire to see legislators in Congress carry out Trump's agenda. Like people are like, get the big beautiful bill done, guys. It was more or less the takeaway, right?
- [05:58]
Annie Carney
Yeah, the takeaway was they don't like any lawmakers who are like putting up. They don't like Victoria Spartz for instance, who's a Republican House member from Indiana who always claims to maybe be a no vote. She always caves, but they don't like her because they don't like that friction. It's like they want them to fall in line.
- [06:17]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, well, let's just jump into it. And I want to start by talking about the speakership, because when you sign up to be the Republican speaker, I mean, talk about a thankless job these days, pretty much sign up to be the least exciting person to the Republican base.
- [06:31]
Annie Carney
Yes. Someone in the focus group said, I think the you guys asked them about what do you think of Mike Johnson compared to John Boehner, Paul Ryan, Kevin McCarthy? And they just said, who would want this job? It seems horrible, thankless. And on that front, they are totally keyed in. I mean, that is the correct take on being a Republican speaker. It's herding cats. It's a horrible job for anyone. Eventually you get kicked out inevitably and replaced by someone else who also can't do the job. So they're right about that. They also don't really have any sense of who these congressional leaders are. That also made me realize how faceless Congress is to a lot of people. They don't know who anyone in Congress really is. Mike Johnson, they seem generally positive because he's for Trump. And, and then you get past the leaders and the name recognition is very low. It made me realize, like to zoom out from this petri dish that we Cover here that this is a faceless institution of 435 people and mostly voters don't know the personalities, the factions. And it's part of why Congress is so unpopular, I think, because with the president at least, you know, you have a feeling for the person. It's this faceless institution that people hate.
- [07:47]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, I think that's a pretty good assessment. All right, let's listen to how folks talked about Johnson and the previous Republican speakers.
- [07:56]
Host
I think he's doing a good job. I think McCarthy got the bad end of a stick in some aspects.
- [08:01]
Annie Carney
I think it was very innovative and.
- [08:03]
Host
Tactical of Trump getting rid of Matt Gaetz the way he did, because I think he was never going to be.
- [08:09]
Annie Carney
The position that he was nominated for.
- [08:11]
Host
And Trump knew that if he could.
- [08:13]
Annie Carney
Get him to withdraw because why would.
- [08:15]
Host
He withdrawn under a nomination until he was appointed was a way to get rid of one of the rabble rousers. And I think there's a few more there that they need to do something with in order to get things going. Yeah, if you're a Republican, I don't know why you'd want to be speaker because it doesn't matter who it is, it doesn't matter if they're more to the right or more center. Other Republicans start acting them. But I look at these last few speakers and I go, man, why would you even think about doing that? There's part of me that enjoys seeing that because I look back at what the founders intended and that the power of faction would prevent Washington from getting too much in the knickers of the American people. And the less that gets done in Washington, the more freedom all of us have. So I'm okay with the less that gets done in Washington. You know, I did had no idea who that gentleman was until he got thrown into that role. But I guess I kind of like it in a way. But don't take this wrong way. He seems like he's in over his head a little bit. He's not the kind of guy who's like the Mitch McConnell that was pulling all the strings or Nancy Pelosi who could pull all the strings. He's struggling and I think that's the way it's supposed to be. You know, you're supposed to be hurting cats in that role. All of those guys that you just mentioned were consummate politicians trying to ride the middle of the road while espousing conservative beliefs, but not really pushing through an agenda that was going to make those beliefs happen into law. I think that now with Trump as a leader, he is the leader of the Republican Party right now, and they can push through that agenda without having the political fear that that has directed so many of the others before him. We had Paul Ryan, who was a complete rhino back then, and I don't know what side he was on. Every time he spoke, I cringed. I mean, some of the other ones that came after him were better than he was, but they were still not sure at times if they were aligned with the party and Trump or not. Now, I think with Johnson, we have somebody who is meeting with Trump constantly and trying to put his agenda across. You have to be organized as a group or you're not going to get your stuff through. So I see him huddling with Trump and the party leaders constantly, and he reports back and he tells you that he's doing it. So I think he's loyal. I'm not saying they should never have any other ideas of their own, but you certainly shouldn't have somebody dissenting with you if you're trying to put agendas through.
- [11:04]
Sarah Longwell
No dissent. No dissent.
- [11:06]
Annie Carney
It's incredible. You know, it's not supposed to be an extension of the White House. Like, even when Obama was president and Nancy Pelosi was the speaker of the House, she had major problems with major portions of the Affordable Care act and changed it and pushed back. Like they weren't in lockstep on every policy decision. It's really not supposed to be that the speaker carries out the President's agenda. Like, sometimes yes, sometimes no. But what you hear there is that they really expect and want Republicans to do what Trump wants them to do, and they like the ones that do, and they are frustrated by the ones who step out of line.
- [11:44]
Sarah Longwell
So you were covering the House a lot for your book. That's the whole point of it, including the speakership battle. How is Mike Johnson viewed differently from McCarthy or even previous folks within the caucus? Like, how has he managed to hang around? Like, even those voters sort of have some idea that there's been a lot of churn.
- [12:03]
Annie Carney
Yes. They said a few things that were definitely true. One is, like, looks like he's over his head. True. They said, like, I didn't really know who the guy was until he got the job. No one did. Like, his own colleagues in the House did not know who he was, which is how he got the job. Yeah, he's not Nancy Pelosi. He's not one of these creatures of Washington, like historically skilled operators. He is not popular. He is not trusted by his members. His power derives completely from Trump. Trump likes him. He runs to Trump for everything. Like, basically, the only power he has over a member is to make them vote. The way he needs them to vote is to go to them and say, like, oh, you're going to have to go tell Trump yourself that you're a no. And he gets Trump on the phone and Trump twists arms, and then there he is. That's pretty much the move. He cuts a lot of side deals. He has been dancing through a lot of hard things. But I'd say that what's protecting him from being ousted right now is that Republicans don't feel confident that there's anyone else who could get elected speaker. There's no alternative, really. An obvious alternative. And they don't want to create more of a holdup for Trump's agenda. I mean, otherwise, I think he would have been thrown out by now. There's a lot of frustration, not a lot of trust. I mean, he's just Trump's staffer.
- [13:22]
Sarah Longwell
And when you say there's not a lot of trust. Did they trust McCarthy?
- [13:26]
Annie Carney
Well, 200 of them did and 20 of them didn't.
- [13:29]
Sarah Longwell
Sure.
- [13:29]
Annie Carney
He built that Republican majority. He was a huge fundraiser. He had been in leadership for 15 years. You know, he knew every member. He knew their families, he knew their districts. He traveled with them and raised money for them. And we watched it through that 15 rounds of votes in that January, we struggled to be speaker. 200 votes were unmovable. And there was a hard group that didn't like him. A hard right, never Kevin faction led by Matt Gaetz. So there was some personal issues with a few members and a lot of these Freedom Caucus guys, like, just, there's a burn it all down caucus. And another thing that counted against him with that faction was that he was in leadership for so long. He represented the status quo. He was sort of like, I think of him as a bridge character from the old Republican Party to the Trump Republican Party. McCarthy had a place in both, but for some of those members, he had too much of a place in the old one and represented the swamp and everything wrong with Washington. But to your point, yeah, a lot of members really liked him and thought he had earned that role, doing a lot of work for many years to get it. And they don't feel that way about Johnson.
- [14:38]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, it's interesting, you know, having done these focus groups for so long. I was doing. I was at the. I was doing like a New York Times dealbook thing at one point, and Maggie Haberman was moderating and Kevin McCarthy was on the panel with me, and he was being sort of glib, and it was right after the election, so he was kind of doing like, a little victory dance, and I didn't understand his posture, and I got kind of confrontational with him about it as he was sort of saying, like, it's great news that we got Trump back in here. And I'm like, the voters that put Trump back in office, they hate you, Kevin McCarthy. You did all this work. You built this majority, and you kowtowed to Trump. You went down to Mar a Lago and you resurrected him. What did you get for it? Because the voters hate you. And, like, Johnson is what they want. They want a nameless, faceless dude.
- [15:25]
Annie Carney
Correct.
- [15:25]
Sarah Longwell
Who's gonna be at the outskirts of the pictures of Trump on the plane, who's just gonna get Congress to lay down for him. And Kevin McCarthy debates himself in every way, and they still hate him because he represents that old guard that you're talking about.
- [15:40]
Annie Carney
Yeah, well, what did he get? He got to be speaker for eight months, you know?
- [15:43]
Sarah Longwell
Cool.
- [15:44]
Annie Carney
He's a former speaker of the House forever.
- [15:46]
Sarah Longwell
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- [17:27]
Annie Carney
So I obviously know that Mitch McConnell is a Persona non grata in the Republican Party for his break with Trump. But listening to your focus groups, the vitriol, it was a reminder of just how deep the hatred is for him. I took some notes. They called him a bowl of jello. They said there was no man there. They called him Spirit, which I actually thought was so interesting because, like, you might disagree with him, but he did. Well, not in the key moments that mattered, but at times, he stood up to Trump. One could argue that that is having a spine. He put his legacy on the line to fight for aid to Ukraine. So, like, he does have beliefs. Calling him spineless didn't ring true to me, but, wow, the hatred, it's deep.
- [18:12]
Sarah Longwell
When I say I liked these groups, what I mean is they were very straightforward and clear. And I think it's because they were older voters and they really did know what they thought. But they expressed a thing that I see all the time, which is they live with a bunch of contradictions that seem to work in their own minds. But, like, the second you take it away and sort of present it, you're like, okay, you're saying Mitch McConnell has no spine, but the reason you hate him is because he stood up to Trump and you say you like Thune. Thune has a spine, when what you like is that he just does whatever Trump. And obviously we don't send our moderators in to, like, really pull that apart with people.
- [18:52]
Annie Carney
I think what they're doing is, in their minds, having a spine is a good quality in a politician, and enacting Trump's agenda is a good quality in a politician. So they're just equating those things. But, yeah, it doesn't make sense. They hated Mitch McConnell. I mean, it was time for him to go. But it made me realize how even if he hadn't had health problems, he wasn't old. Like his time as the leader in the Senate, politically, it had no future, minus the health problems that made it impossible for him to go on.
- [19:22]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, let's listen to some of this sound. And this is where we basically asked them if they saw John Thune as different from Mitch McConnell and what they thought of both of them. And here's what they said.
- [19:33]
Host
He seems like a nice guy. I think he's a bit of a go along to get along type person, but I think that kind of infects you when you're in that role, you want to get things done and to get things done you have to get along to go along. But, you know, there was no one who I would spare from being term loaded. Mitch McConnell was. He was just about deal making and this and that. There was no spying. There was no. I hate to say it like this, but there's no man there. He was just a bowl of jello that was put into a form and the form could change any day. I would think Thum was the kind of guy, he almost didn't run again this last time. It was kind of talked into it. So I kind of look at him at least he's got a bit of a spine and a bit of a gumption to him. I saw the interview that Lara Trump did with him the other night and based on that interview, he seems pretty sharp. Okay. I mean, yeah, give a chance, sure. Better than some of the other ones we've had in there. And he's pressing Trump's agenda, it seems like, you know, what else can you ask for?
- [20:35]
Sarah Longwell
McConnell was an obstructionist when it comes to actually getting through a conservative agenda. I also think he's on the take and has been for a really long time. And I think that's fairly obvious soon what I want to see is someone who will work hard and effectively to advance conservative agenda and to work closely with the White House to advance at this time Donald Trump's agenda. Because he was clearly elected to do the things he said, exactly what he was going to do.
- [21:13]
Host
As far as McConnell goes, to me, he's just a typical politician. If you look up American politician in the dictionary, you would see his picture kind of bland. Although I understand behind the scenes he did have a lot of power. The other thing with him, by the time he left, his mental acuity was only slightly better than Biden's. And I don't know what you do about that. Maybe term limits or age limits or something like that. So thumb, he's there, he's better than McConnell. But that's about all I have on that say with McConnell, his problem was he was in Washington too long and he learned how to play the game. Let's keep in mind that McConnell was the reason that Trump got all his judge appointments, his first term, both Supreme Court district, appellate, federal judges, everything. But when it came to spending and that other stuff, he had been there so long, he just played the game because he wanted to keep friends with everyone. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad he's gone. Okay, I'm glad he's gone, but he was just there too long.
- [22:22]
Annie Carney
My favorite one was regarding Thune. Quote, he's there. Okay. That's true.
- [22:30]
Sarah Longwell
They have low expectations for these folks.
- [22:32]
Annie Carney
They do.
- [22:33]
Sarah Longwell
I should note, because you brought this up before that. At one point when we asked about the Senate leadership, one woman started talking immediately about how much she hated Mitch McConnell, because she only kind of sort of remembered that he had stepped down. We had to remind her that Thune was the leader now.
- [22:47]
Annie Carney
Yes, well, I mean, and you know what? That's fair. Thune hasn't really been in the news. Like, I was just checking before I came on here for our New York Times coverage of John Thune, just to see. And he hasn't been the story. I don't have a huge sense of Jonathan. I mean, he successfully got the most controversial Trump nominees through the Senate. He's going to be up once the House clears this bill. He'll be up for how he's going to get Trump's domestic agenda passed. So we'll see more of him. But this made me realize the pressure that these leaders are under and how Thune is in no position as a new leader to stand up to Trump the way McConnell did at times. McConnell had been around forever. He was untouchable in Kentucky, and he was, at the end of his career, he could pick moments to break with Trump. And you listen to those voters, I'm sure Thune is getting polls and information like this, and they will be punished for not doing what Trump wants them to do, and they know it.
- [23:48]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, the voters are awfully clear on how they feel about this, which is one of the interesting things about a guy like Thune, because Thune sort of like McCarthy kind of makes old school Republicans feel okay. Like, they're like, okay, well, this is a responsible person. But like, when a responsible person says, yeah, Cash Patel, let's do it, like, what's the difference?
- [24:07]
Annie Carney
Yeah, exactly. What's the difference? Of the three who were up for leader, Thune was the most traditional. Like John Barrasso of Wyoming was another potential leader. He would have been the most Trumpy. Thune was the least Trumpy potential Senate leader. But, yeah, I mean, he has shown no huge desire to break the Trump. He's made some comments, he was very critical of the plane, saying it's totally inappropriate for a foreign government to give us an Air Force One. So if that comes to a head, we'll see. And his big thing that he has wanted to do is protect the institution of the Senate and the filibuster and has vowed that that's his priority to protect the institution. And he's already whittling away at that in order to get some bills passed. And so we'll see. Thune is tbd. I kind of like the guy who said he's there because there's some truth to that. He's there.
- [25:02]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. But we've got a bill now. The Senate's gonna have to deal with it. It's gonna be Thune's first, like, in the mix on it. So how do you think he'll differ from McConnell?
- [25:10]
Annie Carney
I don't know. I mean, whatever the House passes tonight, it's going to be impossible to get through the Senate. So there's going to be a lot of, a lot of changes. And I mean, we're going to have to do this for many more weeks and months. So he's more untested and less ability to stand up to Trump. But I don't know. I'm not a spending reporter, so I don't want to answer that.
- [25:29]
Sarah Longwell
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- [27:46]
Annie Carney
I'm very impressed with Trump's presidency so far. I'm a little concerned with the number.
- [27:54]
Sarah Longwell
Of executive orders that he's pushing forward because we do need the three branches of government. But overall, I'm so happy with the immigration, with securing the border. Trump showing a good show of force as the United States is something to be proud of. And I know the thing about the executive orders, but I think what he's done is he's laying out his plan so that if anything ever happens to him, he's got the people in place who will continue his overall plan. And yes, it's not quite where it should be yet, but it's only been four months. And in the four months he has stopped, primarily, you can see it with the immigration, but he's got a plan. I mean, even our economic situation with the inclusion of bitcoin, so he's got a vision, going to Mars, things like this. He's elevated the American dream back to where we should be. And I'm excited about that.
- [28:55]
Host
My concern and someone else expressed this, is his use of executive orders to get a whole lot of this stuff done, like what he's doing. My question is, I don't have an answer really, but where do executive orders stop? How far do you go with that? And there's a precedent being not set, but increased for future administrations. I don't have an answer for that. But the overall rampant use of executive orders to get a lot of this done is concerning to me, and I don't know where you go with that. I love what he's doing, and it's too bad that he is using executive orders to do it with. What scares me is where does it stop? What if we get somebody in there in the future who uses it not to Fix government, but to increase the power, reach, scope and power of government. And I don't have an answer for this. I raised my hand. I like what he's doing, but long term, what's the effect of it? We don't know. And what happens when you get another Joe Biden in there except one whose mental faculties are intact, who knows what he's doing? And I have to make one other comment. The other side. It seems like every time they win the presidency, they move even further to the left than the previous guy they had in there. I agree with you 100%. Is that Congress moves at such a glacial pace and they're not representing the people that he has no other option. Sure, they can be reversed in the next administration, but it needs to be.
- [30:32]
Annie Carney
Done to kind of cut one of.
- [30:35]
Host
The heads off to affect change. Is it the right way?
- [30:39]
Annie Carney
Not necessarily, but I think this is.
- [30:41]
Host
Whoever starts screaming the loudest, him using.
- [30:44]
Annie Carney
It is, could be a target for him to eliminate.
- [30:47]
Host
The reason why. What frustrates all of us is that we understand how inefficient and ineffective our form of government can be. We just have to remember that it sucks less than every other form of government out there.
- [30:59]
Sarah Longwell
Okay. I love this exchange.
- [31:01]
Annie Carney
Yeah, they're honing in on the issue of governing by executive order. The next guy undoes it. It's not law. They are correct on the limits of their use. And also that last exchange, like people actually care about free branches and saving democracy in some fashion. They want our system to work the way it works was interesting to me.
- [31:23]
Sarah Longwell
You can feel the little vestiges of their conservatism. Like, you know, we need Congress to this, but we also want Trump to be able to do what he wants. We just want Congress to go along with him. And so they're mostly unhappy, not with anything Trump's doing. And they're not even mad enough about the executive order thing to say this is really wrong. They're just like, I'm a little uncomfortable with it cuz the other side could do it too. But like, what they really want is Congress just to rubber stamp it.
- [31:50]
Annie Carney
Right.
- [31:50]
Sarah Longwell
It's not like they really want the push and pull of checks and balances. They just, they want that congressional rubber stamp.
- [31:57]
Annie Carney
Well, that's the Congress they've got. You get the Congress you deserve. One thing that also a lot of people seem to think that Trump is playing like four dimensional chess always in these responses about, like when he's gone, he's leaving a blueprint for someone else to follow. And then just to circle back to someone in the first clips you played talked about, like, what a genius move it was to get rid of Matt Gaetz by nominating him for ag. I mean, that was a huge embarrassment. To withdraw your attorney General nominee for allegations that he was sleeping with a minor. I mean, that wasn't a plus. That wasn't like Trump geniusly removing a rabble rouser from the House. That was a messy situation. But people seem to give Trump the benefit of the doubt that everything is part of a master plan.
- [32:41]
Sarah Longwell
Yes. The idea that Trump knows exactly what he's doing and is a negotiator in all forms is replete through people who are just like pure Trump voters. And they're not necessarily like, I'm going to rallies Trump voters, but they're the ones who are like, nope, Trump's the guy. Trump's doing it. Right. But one of the things that I think is so interesting. This is a little pedantic of me, but maybe you'll indulge me in this. You hear a lot of the way these voters talk is they use the word conservative and, you know, they talk about rhinos. Like, Paul Ryan's a rhino, but Trump's a conservative. And for somebody like me who came up in a conservative movement that had a specific set of values where it meant, you know, know, limited government and free markets, American leadership in the world, conserving certain things, like, they don't think Chip Roy is conservative. They just think he's a guy standing in the way of Trump's agenda. Even though Chip Roy is by definition somebody who is taking a stand on the idea that I don't want to increase the debt, I don't want to do big spending bills, because that's not conservative. Right. He's a traditional conservative. Trump is not right. I think voters and the media, like, I hear the media all the time be like, trump is far right or very conservative. I'm like, who? The guy doing the tariffs who loves Putin and is making measles great again and wants to do price controls? Like, there's nothing conservative about any of that. But it's funny to me the way that these voters express their own conservatism, which you can feel the little vestiges of through Trump now, he is everything that's conservative.
- [34:15]
Annie Carney
I don't know, what would you call it? Just maga. They're maga, not conservative.
- [34:19]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, that's like a little bit the cult of personality. Like, this is one of the things that I find interesting about the future. Of the Republican Party. It's sort of like when they did the platform in 2020, and it was like, whatever Trump thinks is what we think, like, they didn't set out policy agendas anymore.
- [34:34]
Annie Carney
Right. They believe whatever he tells them. And for instance, he came to the Hill to talk to Republicans about the big beautiful bill, and he said, there's no one who's bigger fiscal conservative than me, which is like, a laughable statement, but he says it. So I think that part of why you hear these voters say it is like he says it. They kind of just take what he says to the bank a little bit. I mean, if he calls himself that, they're willing to call him that when it's just not true.
- [34:58]
Sarah Longwell
This is where the nihilism creeps in just a little bit for me. Like, and it's a struggle where I watch Democrats for all their flaws, like, they are earnestly trying to come up with a set of policy propositions that will improve people's lives, whether they will or not. But, like, they think and they, like, debate them and they try to come up with messaging, whatever. Trump just lies. He just lies about this stuff.
- [35:19]
Annie Carney
It's not even just Trump to me, like, that's one of the takeaways from being on the Hill that, like, these people all have the same job titles. Like, they're all representatives or senators, but they're playing two different sports here. They are not here to do the same things. Take Trump out of it. Like, a lot of the conservatives are here for smaller government and to take things apart and to dismantle things. And Democrats are generally for building things, which is harder. So it's a harder job. But also, just in terms of your labels thing, it is interesting that Democrats are going through their own label crisis. Like, they don't want to call themselves progressives or moderates anymore. They think those labels are unhelpful, and they're trying to redefine everything that they stand for and are called. So conservatives aren't conservatives, moderates and progressives don't want to talk like that anymore. All the labels are useless now.
- [36:08]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, but the Democrats are trying to find a way to accurately portray who they are, whereas Republicans are just like, we're just going to say these words and words have no meaning. The lol, nothing matters sort of Republican side of things.
- [36:22]
Sponsor
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- [37:36]
Host
I hope you're ready for the most.
- [37:37]
Sarah Longwell
Dippable chicken in McDonald's history.
- [37:39]
Annie Carney
Dip it in all the sauces. Dip it in that hot sauce in your bag. Dip it in your McFlurry.
- [37:44]
Sarah Longwell
Your dip is your business.
- [37:45]
Annie Carney
McCrispy strips at McDonald's.
- [37:48]
Sarah Longwell
Okay, I want to talk about the substance of the bill a little bit. I was interested in the basics of what people were hearing about it because I went through, I did focus groups all through the Biden years of, you know, Biden passing these big omnibus bills. And voters never knew what was in it. They just knew the price tag. And they tended to polarize along party lines. Dems were for them, Republicans were against them. But let's listen to what these voters thought about what they know about the big beautiful bill so far. And the thing that needs to be addressed the most quickly is to extend the tax cuts, make them permanent, because businesses are planning, people are planning. You know, you just can't hold that off too long if you want it to go in effect for 20, 26, certainly changing some of the things. In fact, I believe we need a complete overhaul of our tax structure, and I would like to see that happen. But those are the main things. I'm a little on the fence as far as some of the incentives that have been talked about. You know, whether we do $5,000 for this or $1,000 for that or, you know, singling out people who get tips. I think that came into effect because he needed voters in Las Vegas, but he promised it, so I think they should move forward on it.
- [39:09]
Host
I'll give you two of the big points. You hear one side of the political aisle saying they want to cut Medicaid, they want to make all these cuts. The cuts in that bill don't start till 2029. The fact is they're not cutting anything while he's president or these people are in. They're pushing it down just like they do and just like they have been for the past 50, 60, 70 years. There's nothing better about it. And it's not big and beautiful, it's big and ugly.
- [39:39]
Sarah Longwell
They're not really cutting Medicaid. Right.
- [39:41]
Annie Carney
They're just talking about putting in work.
- [39:43]
Sarah Longwell
Requirements and things like that.
- [39:45]
Host
I mean, that's theoretically going to cut the rise in expenditures. Because now if you're able to work, you got to work at least 20 hours a week in order to get the money. If you're able bodied, the whole thing is just a mess. It seems practical. Okay, because you're talking about cutting. So from that standpoint, I go 100% with it. Now I know the Democrats are attacking it from the standpoint of pointing out things like Medicaid, okay, he's going to cut Medicaid. What I read yesterday was that they were going to have people do 80 hours of work per month, community service, volunteering or something like that, rather than just sitting at the House. So they're really not cutting the dollars is just making people qualify for those entitlements from a different perspective. But as far as cutting the taxes, they're talking about cutting taxes on seniors, on Social Security. That benefits me. Let's go with it. Cutting taxes on tips. They make what, a couple dollars an hour? You know, I don't have a problem with that. I mean, we're tipped to death when we go to a restaurant now. But I think it's great and I don't see any problems with it. But the Democrats can point out little pieces of it that they don't like and they're pushing the Medicare angle of it. And that's what they're trying to die on at this particular point.
- [41:15]
Annie Carney
So my biggest takeaway, it has sunk in the spin that this bill doesn't cut Medicaid. Like that is working because whatever you want to call it, like work requirements, the Congressional Budget Office, which is an independent nonpartisan group, said it will cause 10 million Americans to become uninsured and it will reduce spending on health care by $700 billion. Republicans are talking about getting rid of Medicaid fraud and kicking off undocumented immigrants like, fine, but none of that gets you to $700 billion. But the messaging that it's cutting without calling it a cut seems to be working. And then I think in later you didn't play this, but in part that I listened to last night, I think you guys asked them, do any of you think that there will be changes to Medicaid in your lifetime or your kids? And they said, no, it'll still be there. They felt confident. It's not really going anywhere. And just the whole dismissal of the idea that there will be cuts as a Democratic talking point, to me that just shows like how polarized the whole conversation is about this and everyone's in their silos and just believing a version of it. They don't know what's in the bill. They know the top line that something they read or some lawmaker they trust.
- [42:26]
Sarah Longwell
Tells them or the right wing media ecosystem in which they live is doing a pretty big prebuttle on this. Like, I was actually astonished by the level of detail that these voters knew about this bill and also that they had their pushback ready. They're like, this is how the other side's going to go after this. And there was one guy, the guy who said, it's not a big beautiful bill, it's a big ugly bill. Which Democrats. That is good messaging. Listen to focus groups. Voters will often tell you some of your best messaging. It's a big ugly bill. Good, good messaging. It is striking to me though how much more marketable big beautiful bill is than build back better.
- [43:06]
Annie Carney
Yeah, big beautiful bill is. He's good at the marketing. Yeah.
- [43:10]
Sponsor
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- [44:23]
Host
I hope you're ready for the most.
- [44:25]
Sarah Longwell
Dippable chicken in McDonald's history.
- [44:27]
Annie Carney
Dip it in all the sauces. Dip it in that hot sauce in your bag. Dip it in your McFlurry.
- [44:31]
Sarah Longwell
Your dip is your business.
- [44:33]
Host
McCrispy strips at McDonald's.
- [44:36]
Sarah Longwell
This group, they didn't really believe that the Medicaid cuts were a thing, as you point out. And if they did. Right. So they had their counterpoints ready. But there were some Republicans, like Josh Hawley is a good example, who are dead set against cutting Medicaid. And Trump told congressional Republicans not to f with it. It's a family podcast. I'm not gonna use Trump's whole word, but you get the gist. So walk us through the intra party dynamics on the Medicaid cuts and then if you wanna hit a little salt, you can too.
- [45:04]
Annie Carney
Yeah, I mean, cuts to Medicaid is dividing Republicans. I mean, I've heard Steve Bannon on War Room say, you know, a lot of mag is on Medicaid. You gotta be really careful with that. And you know, Josh Hawley has come out saying it's not only cruel policy, but it's politically toxic for anyone to support cuts to Medicaid. And then there's like the actual fiscal conservatives like you said, like Chip Roy, an actual conservative traditional, who are demanding cuts to Medicaid to hold down the cost of the bill and rein in deficits. Like that's what they believe in. And then there are some very vulnerable Republicans who, you know, won their districts by a smaller margin than the number of people in their district who are on Medicaid. And they have a tough vote to take if Democrats can succeed in driving home the message that this guy voted to cut Medicaid. But this is the magic of the right wing media machine that will those Republicans get blamed for that vote if these voters don't actually think it's a cut and they're just calling it a cut, but they're calling it something different that's helpful to them. But yeah, there is two factions on cutting Medicaid or not. And then there's the ones who want to cut but just don't want to call it a cut.
- [46:15]
Sarah Longwell
Look, this thing already adds an enormous amount to the debt, to the deficit. I mean, we're talking about over 10 years, ending up, you know, close to $60 trillion at a time when inflation is high. And so we're paying a lot of interest on this. Like they are politically toxic. So is the level of debt. Feels like there's a lot in here Democrats could be screaming and yelling about and just going berserk on. Do you feel like they are on the Hill or are they sitting back and letting Republicans bludgeon each other? Like, letting them wedge themselves?
- [46:45]
Annie Carney
They've been trying to sound the alarm on cutting Medicaid, and they've been trying to single out, like, specific vulnerable Republicans who not only have to take a tough vote on the bill, but actually sit on the committees, like the Energy and Commerce Committee that actually had to write the bill to cut $880 billion of Medicaid. Like, there's a few of these Republicans that are really on the bubble who are on that committee. So they've been trying to, like, really go for the jugular in these specific districts where they think they can win back seats. But, yeah, I think the Medicaid, they've clearly decided that's the strongest argument is that they're voting for something deeply unpopular. No, I don't think they're sitting back. I think they're trying to take that fight everywhere they can.
- [47:26]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, this is the old Republican in me. But, you know, I find the extent to which this adds to the debt. I also think that kind of goes right at where Republicans live. And it was interesting to me because there was a big contradiction for these voters when talking about this bill. They want to curb the national debt and they love what Doge is doing. Right. This is all about cutting. It's all about efficiency. It's all about lowering our debt. But they largely want to see the 2017 tax cuts extended. And when the moderator really pressed them about the trade off. You can't cut taxes and spend a bunch of money and not add to the national debt. They just sort of rejected the premise that tax cuts decrease revenues. So let's listen how they talk about the tension between tackling the debt and cutting taxes.
- [48:13]
Host
Well, the national debt as it stands right now is unsustainable. We can't keep going in the direction we've been going, just adding to it and adding to it. It's at a point now where service on the interest is almost at gdp. That's insane for us to try to believe that we can continue to do that. The last time, we came relatively close to a balanced budget. Most of us here are old enough to remember the Reagan years when he showed us that cutting taxes raises revenue. And when you raise revenue, you can service some more of that debt. And cutting spending keeps you from borrowing from other countries, which is where we owe most of our national debt to. So I think, as I said, it's unsustainable. It's got to be fixed in some fashion. I don't know what that fashion is, but I do know that the last time we came close was doing an agenda very much like what Trump is doing now. It's been shown time and time again that when you reduce taxes, you increase revenues. And the only real way to pay off the debt is to supercharge the economy. So the economy is producing more in the gdp and consequently you don't have to raise taxes because you're raising more revenue based on the stronger economy.
- [49:36]
Sarah Longwell
But it's not really an either or because there's the third factor of spending. So we absolutely have to get our spending under control. If we don't address the debt, this is not sustainable. It will end up like Greece a few years ago. At the same time, these tax cuts, if they don't go through, the increase that people are going to see is enormous. So this is not a binary decision.
- [50:08]
Host
I think stopping spending will reduce the debt quicker than lowering taxes. I think lowering taxes has a different and positive impact. But you don't get out of a hole by digging it deeper.
- [50:21]
Sarah Longwell
They don't think that this is going to add to the debt, I guess, which the CBO has said that it was going to add a tremendous amount to the debt. But how are the vulnerable Republicans that you're covering handling the prospect of a tough vote on this big beautiful bill? Do they have to rationalize this sort of ballooning debt and deficit?
- [50:40]
Annie Carney
So the little group of anti deficit evangelists have some power on the Hill because of the tiny majority that gives any small faction of Republicans power to block the entire thing. But there's like a pattern to like how things go here, which is they stage a minor revolt like they did at this time on getting the bill out of the Budget Committee. But then they usually back down and don't kill a top Republican priority like this bill. So that's kind of the pattern that plays out. They have a little tantrum to make their point about reducing deficits, but ultimately leadership and most of the members don't want to do that and they back down. I mean, we'll see. But that's the pattern how it typically plays out here. And mostly these deficit evangelists are a minority compared to the rank and file and Republican leaders who don't want to pay the political price.
- [51:33]
Sarah Longwell
And you don't hear anybody talking about like, boy, the debt that we're adding, you don't hear. Just like Republicans worried about the fact that this goes against everything that they say.
- [51:43]
Annie Carney
A few, like Chip Roy and Thomas Massie, like remember the Tea Party?
- [51:47]
Sarah Longwell
The Tea Party was a thing.
- [51:49]
Annie Carney
Yeah. Like the few loud voices of these true fiscal hogs, but not overwhelmingly.
- [51:55]
Sarah Longwell
Okay, well, listening to voters, guys, it is a study in contradictions.
- [52:00]
Annie Carney
Oh yeah, I just want to say that it was eye opening to realize how no one's reading anything I write.
- [52:07]
Sarah Longwell
Well, MAGA voters aren't.
- [52:08]
Annie Carney
Yeah, I really enjoyed this one. Quote, someone said they had, quote, no opinion on anyone specifically about members of Congress. And I just really enjoyed that as a key sentiment about this body of 435 people. No opinion on anyone specifically. I think that's important to remember. Like that's a real thing. It's just a faceless blob that should do what Trump wants. That's what they want Congress to be.
- [52:36]
Sarah Longwell
It's not what the founders wanted Congress to be though. And I hope that this supine position is not the Congress that we have forever. Annie Carney, thank you so much for joining us. And thanks to all of you for listening to another focus group podcast. Remember to rate and review us on Apple podcasts. Become a Bulwark plus member at the bulwark.com and subscribe to the Bulwark on YouTube. We will see you next week. Be good to each other.
- [53:02]
Host
Bye.
- [53:12]
Sponsor
When you think about businesses that are selling through the roof, Allbirds or Skims. Sure, you think about a great product, a cool brand and brilliant marketing. But an often overlooked secret is actually the businesses behind the business making, selling and for the shoppers, buying simple. For millions of businesses, that business is Shopify. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Home of the number one checkout on the planet and the not so secret secret with shop pay that boosts conversions up to 50%, meaning way less carts going abandoned and way more sales going. So if you're into growing your business, your commerce platform better be ready to sell wherever your customers are scrolling or strolling on the web, in your store, in their feed and everywhere in between. Businesses that sell more sell on Shopify. Upgrade your business and get the same checkout skims uses. Sign up for your $1 per month trial period at shopify.com audioboom all lowercase go to shopify.com audioboom to upgrade your selling today. Shopify.com audioboom McCrispy strips are now at McDonald's.
- [54:26]
Host
I hope you're ready for the most.
- [54:27]
Sarah Longwell
Dippable chicken in McDonald's history.
- [54:29]
Annie Carney
Dip it in all the way sauces. Dip it in that hot sauce in your bag. Dip it in your McFlurry.
- [54:34]
Sarah Longwell
Your dip is your business McCrispy strips at McDonald's.