← The Focus Group Podcast
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- [00:00]
Sarah Longwell
Foreign. And welcome to the Focus group podcast. I'm Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark, and this week we're going to recap Trump's second inaugural address, because time is a flat circle, and here we are again. And then we're going to have some tough talk about the next four years because there's no sugar coating it, right? American democracy's in a. In a tough place right now. And my guest and I both have a lot of thoughts about how we as Americans and our institutions should comport ourselves during the second Trump administration. And to be honest, I think we're still thinking through that, and so we'll just sort of share. I'm excited about our guests as somebody to be able to bounce these ideas off of, because this is the kind of conversation that is best had among friends and I would even say family. So I'm welcoming one of our most distinguished Bulwark alums back to the show, Amanda Carpenter. She is, most importantly, my friend and a great person who was with us at the Bulwark from the jump, but she's also a writer and editor, Protect Democracy, and author of Gaslighting America why We Love It When Trump Lies to Us. Hey, bud.
- [01:12]
Amanda Carpenter
Hey. Nice to see you. Thank you for having me here. Tough times, but better to be with friends.
- [01:17]
Sarah Longwell
So, yeah, I guess we asked some of the focus groups, how does it feel different this time than it did eight years ago? Like, it's clear we all feel differently, but how does it feel different to you?
- [01:30]
Amanda Carpenter
It feels different because this time, at least personally, I know what to expect. Last time, when he first came into office, it was a big upset. No one was expecting it to happen. In many ways, he was getting his bearings, and there was much more of a clown show aspect to it all. Whereas this time, he's been very clear about how he intends to govern, and he's executing on that very quickly. Last time, there was much more of a spectacle. This time it's just far more serious.
- [02:02]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, I always liken it, and I can't remember if I invented this or if I've subsumed it from one of the other Bulwark people, but it's a little bit like the Velociraptors in Jurassic park when they learn to turn the doorknobs. And I remember early in 2017 thinking, sort of, thank goodness he kind of doesn't know what he's doing with the levers of government, because it would be so much more dangerous if he did. And that's not the case anymore. He knows exactly what he's doing. And to your point, and I should say for the audience, we are taping the day after inauguration on Tuesday, and a lot of the people we listen to just are reacting to the inaugural. But what did you think just watching inauguration yesterday?
- [02:45]
Amanda Carpenter
Well, a lot of it was just taking in how different it was in that it was inside. He still gave a speech that was very rally like and it was very provocative. But because it was inside those close quarters, I think you saw much more of that dynamic where he was just closed in with his supporters, you know, the musk and everyone behind him. Everybody in the crowd was very excited. And then you just had the kind of, like, outliers of the former presidents on the side squirming, maybe being a little bit uncomfortable. So I think those close quarters heightened those dynamics in a way that we could more easily observe them. But as for the speech, you know, it's just, I can't believe we did this again. Going into the inaugural speech, you still had the media again sort of give the idea that, will he adopt a new tone? Will he do this? And you've got to be kidding me. Of course he did it. Of course he gave the same kind of speech that he's been giving since 2015. He never dials it back. And so to me, the most frustrating thing was not only his words, but how still everyone around him that was not directly connected to him was trying to go back to the before times.
- [04:01]
Sarah Longwell
The speech was fundamentally un American. In a lot of ways, it was like a campaign speech. I mean, usually those speeches are really about, like, who we are as a country and setting, like, a bigger vision. But he kind of did, like, point by point things he was going to do, some of which are flagrantly unconstitutional. I struggled a little bit with the way that Joe Biden received him. Right. There's sort of this. This constant tension between how out of the ordinary this is and the way that Democrats have warned about how dangerous Trump is, and then the way they treat him. I understand, like, it is both true that Donald Trump is a total threat, and it is also true that Joe Biden, trying to sort of do the right thing for the peaceful transfer of power, sort of shows up and does the normal transition stuff. But he does it in a way that's like, hey, buddy, big smile. Let's fist bump. And Donald Trump, meanwhile, gives it back to him by standing on the stage and taking credit for the release of hostages. And like, there's this insane moment where Trump announces The hostages coming home. And you see Biden being like, yeah, that was me. And Trump being like, oh, that's me. And then Biden having to get up and clap for it in the way that Trump is just owning that. It's like stomach churning to still watch. Democrats have no idea how to handle this guy being trapped between their belief that he is a unique threat to the country, and they have to demonstrate, like, normality of politics, and they just haven't figured out how to deal with that tension.
- [05:35]
Amanda Carpenter
Yeah. And I think it's sort of a bigger deal. The fact that neither Michelle Obama or Karen Pence chose to attend the ceremonies. Two women, right, with a huge station who have observed being mistreated by Trump so closely decided not to attend, I think is remarkable. And we just kind of glossed over that. I mean, maybe it's uncomfortable to talk about, but there's something there in that. The women who had to be subjected to it but couldn't really do anything about it as their husbands were so mistreated by Trump. I think there's a lot more to explore there.
- [06:13]
Sarah Longwell
I'll be honest. I have slightly conflicting feelings about this. I basically think it's complicated. I think this is my opinion. I'm pretty sure. I think people should attend because I think that when Trump skipped it last time, right. He was demonstrating the wrong way to behave, and I think we criticized that at the time as objectively the incorrect way. Now, he also didn't attend after, you know, siccing a mob on the Capitol. So it's just such a different thing. But Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are trying to do the right thing. But I do think Barack Obama sitting at the Carter funeral and kind of yucking it up with Trump. Like, you've got to decide, guys. And this is where Biden's thing is so fundamentally misaligned. It's like he's either so dangerous that Biden thinks he's got to give preemptive pardons to his whole family and everybody else that Tim was making this point and it's exactly right. Or, you know, Trump is within the bounds of morality and we're all just going to keep treating it as normal and, like, they just can't figure out how to exist in that space. And I do think to the extent that there's a theme for this episode and the thing I wanted to talk to you about, it's sort of grappling with that because it is not straightforwardly easy. And so I recently did a focus group of sad Democrats, which is basically all Democrats, I would say, right now. And a lot of those we played in my conversation with Evan Osnos last week. But I want to go back to this group, just a little bit of Democrats, because I wanted to get the current feelings on the incoming administration versus how they felt eight years ago. And this is the thing I want you to listen for. They're worried, but there's a resignation to it that I think is a result of this fundamental tension and people not knowing what to do in this moment.
- [07:51]
Focus Group Participant 1
I'm just going to power through it. I don't really have any faith in it. It's kind of scary. But, you know, the door has been open to, you know, pushing the limits like the, the riots and, you know, just the pardons and all those things they were doing before. So I'm just going to try to power through it. But I also think that because of this, I think that I now have to, like, rethink my approach to who I support in the future. And I'm not sure what that rethink is or what the approach is going to be, but I think that I have to do that, unfortunately.
- [08:26]
Sarah Longwell
I'm just gonna roll with it.
- [08:28]
Focus Group Participant 2
I just can't wait for my friends.
- [08:30]
Focus Group Participant 1
To like, you thought tariffs were going.
- [08:31]
Sarah Longwell
To be a good thing.
- [08:32]
Focus Group Participant 2
Now they're going to pay double. So I'm just gonna say what I told you.
- [08:38]
Sarah Longwell
It's the bully culture that he employs.
- [08:42]
Amanda Carpenter
I'm terrified. I mean, there's a side of me that hopes he'll just be kind of.
- [08:45]
Sarah Longwell
A lame duck and do nothing.
- [08:46]
Amanda Carpenter
But the way Trump is talking, I.
- [08:49]
Sarah Longwell
Am just nervous about how things are going to change and how our country.
- [08:54]
Amanda Carpenter
Is going to look at the. In the eyes of others.
- [08:57]
Sarah Longwell
First round, he got slapped down. He's been to court a bunch of times. He's a convicted criminal. He knows he can get away with it all. And he's got the support of his whole party, his whole cult of the party, and it's going to get ugly. I just hope we make it through it.
- [09:20]
Focus Group Participant 3
Well, I have concerns because the people that were there during his first term are no longer there. Our age is going get away with a lot of things, but a lot of people, I think a number of people are going to be hurt and they don't know it because he says things that they'll go along with just because he said it, not looking at the ramifications that are going to come about. And we are some hated people around the planet. You know, we really are. Just because we're from America, so to speak.
- [10:00]
Focus Group Participant 4
I think Trump is a bully, and if anybody's ever experienced the sixth grade bully, that's the mentality. That's what we're going to have. I don't think he's going to bother me. I'm not trans, I'm not an immigrant. He's going to pick on the weakest people, and the people in the middle who are that way inclined will think that, oh, he's a strong guy. But I think everything will be for show. I don't think him or especially the people that he's selecting have the skills to actually pull anything off, unfortunately. I think the worst thing will be after him is that a lot of this silliness will be institutionalized and it will be hard to get rid of kind of in this country, if you do something twice, it's a tradition, you know. So I think a lot of the stupid things that he's doing will end up being permanent.
- [11:00]
Focus Group Participant 2
I think Democrats at least have a sense of what's going to happen. We didn't know what truly was going to happen when Trump took office the first time around. We knew it would be a spectacle, and we got one in the worst possible way. I think that, generally speaking, you know, that was his A team. He hired the best people, remember, and. And most of them he basically dismissed or fired. Now we have his B and C and D teams, and Lord knows if they're going to be even competent enough to get anything done. Let's hope not. I also kind of fundamentally believe that the Democrats have tried to play a fair game, while the Republicans have undermined that fairness. They've done everything they can since even Obama was leaving office to try to undermine democracy. And I think, you know, if you're going to, as Michelle Obama once said, they go low, we go high. I no longer believe in that doctrine anymore because we've seen what they can do. We've seen the power of money and politics. It's no longer being hidden. It's now out there in the open for all to see. And if we don't drastically look at this as a instance of fairness, if we actually stoop to their level, we might actually get a few things done.
- [12:21]
Sarah Longwell
So this is interesting to me because I would say it represents broadly what I feel like is breaking into sort of two ways people are feeling about how to engage this new Trump administration. One is kind of like a I know what we're in for, I know who this guy is. And like, you know, you guys voted for this. So I hope you enjoy it while it's happening. And I'm going to say, I told you so, but, like, I'm going to power through it, going to gut it out. What are you going to do? He's a lame duck, right? And the lame duckness is a real liability and a superpower in a lot of ways. That's one thing I hear there. Some of that's resignation, right? Where it's like he's controls all these things now. I don't know what to do about it. Hashtag, resist. Not going to work. So I guess I'm just going to watch it play out. Then the other side, it's like, we got to fight more like the Republicans do, You know, we got to be like them. And I'll tell you, the place I sort of see this a lot is when Joe Biden, when he pardoned Hunter or even the pardons yesterday, there's a lot of like, why should we follow norms? Why should we do this? You know, they're not going to do it, so why should we? Which I understand is an emotional impulse. I do think in that way lies ruin. But do you have a theory of the case about how people push back this time? We work at a place called Protect Democracy. How do we protect democracy this time?
- [13:40]
Amanda Carpenter
Yeah. Well, let me first start with what is, I think, the very real emotion you heard in this focus group. It's a sort of learned helplessness in this moment. Right? Like, people know what's happening is wrong and they don't know what to do about it. So the most natural thing is, well, I'm just going to maybe lay low, not move that fast, and hope the big bully doesn't notice me going forward. That's what's happening now. That learned helplessness is firmly on display anywhere you look. So you get to the question of what do we do about it First, I think we have to aggressively combat the idea that somehow this will naturally come to an end. This is also something that has permeated the public psychology since Trump came to office. Oh, he'll burn himself out. He won't last. This speech will do him over. Like, can we be done with that now? And this idea that he's a lame duck means that he automatically goes away without anyone taking the power from him and really competing for it effectively. It should be dismissed. Yes. He, by the letter of the law, can't run for a third term. I think he may toy around with that. He may push the Supreme Court to make some kind of decision. I mean, please People think out of the box, but probably more likely is that he continues to be a kingmaker behind the scenes. I mean, you shouldn't be thinking about this as the Trump era, but the MAGA era, that can continue for quite some time. I mean, J.D. vance is just sitting there waiting in the wings. Don Jr. There's a number of people who could campaign with and win the presidency in 2028 with Trump's blessing. TUCKER Carlson yeah, I mean, just insert a figure. And so if you think this is going away on its own without someone showing a better alternative, you are sorely mistaken. So we need to be really firm about that now, because you cannot wait until, you know, like we saw in this campaign, you wait until the summer before the election is supposed to happen and saying, like, oh, can this candidate make it? That turned out not so great. So the electoral competition, which is a phrase I want to socialize, needs to begin now. An electoral competition does not only just mean having an election November 2028. It means speaking out, organizing around themes now, making sure that we don't lose the playing field as Trump consolidates power in fighting to perfect all those civic spaces that we're going to need to win in order to have a winning coalition later. So that needs to begin now. And I think one of the necessary organizing principles to recognize what is going wrong is explaining to people how Trump is using right now the levers of office to stay in office. And when I talk about Trump staying in office, it's not just him, right? Like, what is Schedule F about? The wonky thing where we're going to purge all the qualified experts from the federal government is not just to get rid of people he doesn't like. It's to install loyalists who can continue to wield that power on and on and on. So they are not thinking about a term agenda. They're thinking long term. And they had plenty of time to plan this. I think when we look back, we are going to recognize that Trump having those four years out of office was very beneficial to him. What other president has had the experience of being in office, getting kicked out, and having four years to plan for the next term without having any of the responsibilities of governance. I mean, you look at the executive orders that rained down in the first hours that he was sworn into office, that did not happen by accident. You know, in addition to electoral competition, in understanding that being able to compete effectively just isn't about elections, we have to also have the eye on the ball of, like, how do we explain? Explain what he's doing in office. And this is political entrenchment to consolidate and wield power so that voters can't dislodge them. And it's bigger than Trump. That is the MAGA agenda that was.
- [17:46]
Sarah Longwell
Very well stated and, like, 100% agree that Donald Trump might be a lame duck, but his agenda is not, and that they can do so much with a wrecking ball like Trump. Anyway. The thing that you said, though, that I think is so interesting about, I don't know if it's. We'd call it a running a permanent campaign, but, like, hashtag resist is not the thing this time. People have to understand that, like, leaders have to emerge. People have to emerge who are going to challenge Trump, who can be vocal, who can go into all kinds of spaces, be everywhere all at once. And, like, right now, kind of Mark Cuban's maybe one of the only people doing this, so his name's going to come up over and over again. Like, remember, there's this moment when everybody was, like, auditioning to be Kamala's VP where, like, Democrats, like, in their ambition, they found their agenda and then for some reason clammed up the second walls. Was the guy then, like, we didn't see him again. He, like, got everybody talking about how it was weird and then walked away. I'm sorry. I'm sorry to go on this rant right now, but there's a lot of people talking about, well, you got to build media ecosystems on the left, like, the way that the right has done this.
- [18:52]
Amanda Carpenter
And I gotta tell you, they will come.
- [18:54]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. Here's the thing, man. Number one, you got to build demand for things like that. You can't just build the media ecosystem. Right. Two, Donald Trump and the right didn't just build a media ecosystem. They built a set of economic incentives. Donald Trump allows people to live in his economic slipstream. There are so many people getting rich and getting followers and being able to monetize them, because Donald Trump has sort of created this appetite, this space. And, like, unless there are leaders who emerge on the left who can create the level of enthusiasm and create the level of, yeah, man, I want to go fight with this person. Just building stuff isn't going to solve the problem. Right, sorry, I'm going to stop there.
- [19:38]
Amanda Carpenter
No, no, he doesn't have supporters. He has a fan base. Yeah, right. Like, if that's not completely apparent from him, filling the Capital One arena and putting his desk there and throwing out executive order, pension, I don't know what else makes that more clear. People are Wearing his jersey all the time. And you know, I'm not telling the Democrats that like go out and mimic his tactics, but you have to have fans, right? People that want to listen to you.
- [20:04]
Sarah Longwell
We have to generate excitement.
- [20:06]
Amanda Carpenter
Yeah. And the thing that the Trump right has done, the MAGA base, the Charlie Kirk's, they're constantly holding events where people are going and giving speeches and competing with each other constantly. I really don't think, you know, maybe it's just because you and I have been immersed in the right, but there is constant competition on the right for that media spotlight. Fox News people were always competing within and among themselves to get on Hannity show, to get on this. I mean, it was vicious. And then the people that emerged, I mean, you may not like them, but they have good presence. People want to come see them mimicking everything they do is not right. But if you don't understand, if people do not want to listen to you, you will not get their votes. You have no chance. And we can have this constant debate about whether it's the media infrastructure, the messenger or the message. It's all of those things. It's all of those things being tested, succeeding, failing in a constant chaotic stream. So many well meaning people, they want to have a strategy, they want to talk to consultants, they want to get a memo of like, here's what I need to do. Go out and do it. Have an event, get AOC, get 10 of them, make a big show of it and see who has a grippy sticky message. You run with it. It might work for a week or two, but you have to do that real time testing that Trump constantly did at his rallies that everyone mocked and couldn't believe that people are showing up to. But they did because it was a good time and it was a party. And you have to understand a little bit of that element.
- [21:44]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, agreed. And this idea though of like, you don't ever want to mimic Republicans in the cynicism and the substance, none of that. That's not what we're saying. But there is an element, and I think you're right, that both of us come from the bare knuckle, brawling comms world of the right. And as we, I think have embarked on our missions to fight Trump, I think both of us have been startled, like how the left does not do that. And it is like a lot of memo writing and a lot of like, what's the word that we could use that'll really break through to voters. And I'm like, all of them, it's not like a magic word. There's like a magic phrase. And one of the reasons I love doing the focus groups is that I do think that Trump, in a way, because he was a marketing guy, really understood the zeitgeist for people and like, what he could get them excited about what already lived in them. And I always talk about this as a communications lesson. You're not always trying to persuade people so much as you are trying to unlock something they already believe, give them permission for something that they already want to do. And so, like, people were annoyed about like woke and DEI and they were there to unlock that. Now, in many ways, it was in gross and unethical whatever, but they understood the underlying psychology of what people felt. And then they listened to people's like, okay, there's a lot of economic grievance here. And they lie to people about it. They lie about what they're going to do, but they understand that's the message. That's the thing people want to hear. How am I going to make them rich like me? How am I going to drive their costs down?
- [23:19]
Amanda Carpenter
Yeah. The other way to look at how to build a fan base. I mean, Barack Obama did it, right? He gave that lightning speech to the DNC that whipped everybody's head around. And people wanted to listen to him. You know, we on the right, we mocked him, right, for being like a superstar and trying to be a celebrity and, you know, being too famous. That was a pretty big net. Good.
- [23:39]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
- [23:40]
Amanda Carpenter
Rediscovered that in the uplifting, positive way that unites people.
- [23:45]
Sarah Longwell
Right?
- [23:47]
Amanda Carpenter
Good, good ways. For one would like to think the bad ways.
- [23:53]
Sarah Longwell
All right, let's get to some more sound. So we've spent a lot of time over the last couple months on voters who flipped from Biden in 2020 to Trump to 2024 because obviously pretty interested in that post election, but I wanted to do something different today. So we listened to recently convened a group who voted for Trump in 2020, but voted for Harris in 2024. And so I was kind of interested in this group who clearly, like, had seen Trump, saw what he was about, didn't want to have it again. How did they feel now that he'd won? And so we made all of them listen to his inaugural address. That was like they had an assignment. They had to go listen to it, wanted to hear what this group thought about it. So let's of their reactions and what.
- [24:37]
Focus Group Participant 5
He says is simply not true. He does not have the authority to change the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, other countries need to agree to that. We did not lose 38,000 lives building the Panama Canal. The number was closer to 5,600. And he just says whatever he thinks will arouse and stir up and incite the mob to vote for him. And my favorite professor in college taught ancient Greek history, and he was very blunt and direct. The lessons of history are irrevocable. Empires come and empires go. And America is circling the drain. And here we are arguing about how to arrange the chairs on the deck of the Titanic while we're taking on water. And Mr. Trump is drilling more and more holes into the hull of the ship so that we'll sink faster, so that his buddies like Bezos and Elon Musk are getting richer and richer. Why did all those people give money to his inauguration? They bought Trump's favor. This is not a government of the people, by the people and for the people. This is a government of the rich and wealthy imposing their will and their policy decisions upon the rest of us.
- [26:01]
Focus Group Participant 6
Peons was the just the regular Trump bs. And throw as much up against the wall that you can. And look at all the big, powerful people I have behind me now, you know, and I'm sorry, I'm Greek Orthodox. I'm very faithful in my faith, if you will. But using those ministers, pastors, rabbis and what have you in the way that they were displayed and the things that they said, it was so partisan, it was so hypocritical. I couldn't believe my ears. I really couldn't. Of all the things that probably disturbed me more than Trump opening his mouth, that's how. Just, I don't know, just upset I was when I watched it. I couldn't believe it. Dumbfounded.
- [26:57]
Focus Group Participant 3
I did not like that at all because it's like, it's literally more things to worry about than wars and going at it with other countries when you should be worried about way bigger things. And I'm not going to speak on a lot because I don't have too much info on Trump, but that's one of the things I did not like about his speech at all. Like the whole envy thing and the other countries, I didn't like that there are bigger fish that are fry than renaming the Gulf of Mexico. I am just amazed that that's even a topic. Actually, I shouldn't be amazed because this is all typical Trump talk about taking over the Panama Canal in Greenland. It stirs up a lot of bad feelings and it's very typical of him. So I really shouldn't be Surprised, But I totally agree. There are bigger fish to pry than renaming the Gulf of Mexico.
- [27:51]
Focus Group Participant 1
He's got concepts, probably. They always have concepts. He never has any plans. He always like, I'm gonna release a plan in two months. Then two months pass, I'm gonna release a plan. I'm gonna release a plan. Never has a plan. My favorite thing with Melania's outfit, my wife's like, what if she had a funeral? She had morning. If you looked at the. All the past presidents sat down the whole time, they never got up. They're just like, how is this guy here? And people are cheering on the stuff, which is just distractions. It's all distractions. It's just to give people something because he can't do what he says.
- [28:27]
Focus Group Participant 7
But I thought there would be an opportunity for him to be gracious in accepting the role of president again. Yet he turned around and just did exactly what he's done for the last year. Was basically a rally speech, although a little more controlled. It was just a rally speech full of, like, Chuck said, full lies, a lot of ideas with no plans. I'm concerned about tariffs, mass deportation. I support protecting our border. I support this trade issues we have. But has he really thought out the ramifications of tariffs, mass deportation, and those sorts of things? So I think he missed an opportunity, quite frankly, to engage the broader United States voting public.
- [29:14]
Sarah Longwell
So these were highly engaged voters who had studied Trump quite a bit, saw his shtick, and were just like, I'm done with this. I don't want it anymore. But what struck me about them is because they had Trump dead to rights, they understood, especially the guy who was talking about the distraction. Because I feel like if there's one thing we could learn, one thing we could understand going into this next Trump term, it is that Trump, on one hand, is over here doing stuff. You know, sometimes we do these scenario planning exercises. In democracy world, I was doing one, and I was playing Trump. And in that, I just had two strategies. One was my team wrote 100 insane tweets, and then we had a plan to dismantle the government.
- [29:53]
Focus Group Participant 6
Yeah.
- [29:53]
Sarah Longwell
And so, like, this is what he does, because he knows people are like cats with these, like a laser pointer and everybody chases thing. And so that guy at least seemed to understand that the buying Greenland, the Gulf of America, this is the stuff that's meant to make people feel like it's all funny, it's all silly, it's all low stakes, like, show. But then he's assigning executive orders that are doing Real damage. And so, like, how did you help people sort through what's stupid and what's real?
- [30:21]
Amanda Carpenter
That's our biggest challenge, 100% in the early days of this administration. Finding a framework to separate what truly matters versus what doesn't in a way that can be broadly understood is our biggest task. I think the way that you have to have some kind of cleaving framework gets back to the entrenchment idea. Is this an action that consolidates power and ultimately makes it harder for voters to dislodge maga should they choose right? Like, if they freely choose him in a collection, that's fine. My concern is witnessing what he attempted in 2020 to stay in power over the will of voters. You have to imagine that can happen again because it did, because he's pardoning the people who committed crimes in pursuit of that goal. So that is the number one object that I think the pro democracy people have to be aware of and unite around. So that's where my focus is. These are the things that are going to matter. Like you pointed out, the Gulf of America is not going to matter. I think these voters were extremely perceptive in understanding that. He does throw out these shiny objects to distract from the ways that he wants to dismantle democracy, give access to oligarchs. You know, I don't think oligarch is like a normal focus group word. It was used several times in this session. One person didn't know quite know how to pronounce it. But people are on to what's happening. I mean, you can't get a fuller picture than you did in inauguration when they're sitting in front of the Cabinet, people are onto that. And was the revulsion, particularly among the women, I think, in the group, about how Trump was politicizing faith for his personal interests. So I wasn't as, like, shocked by it, but it was shocking when he stood there and said, you know, I was saved by God to make America great again. This strident use and invocation of God without any humbleness, humility, faith, or concept of what Jesus stands for is repulsive. And people understood that. And so I think those are potential areas to explore. But what it comes down to, are we going to retain our rights to speak and organize and assemble and fund candidates who can actually be competitive? Because electoral competition doesn't matter if you don't have people who can actually compete for the hearts and minds. That's what I think we got to fight for and navigate everything around.
- [32:53]
Sarah Longwell
Okay, I want to come back to the question about how we talk about democracy going forward. But first, I'll just say I'm on the record saying many times that I think collectively we're underreacting to the Trump threat, which may seem weird because, you know, there's hashtag resist and people do have hair on fire. But I also think, like, we as human beings can only be agitated for so long, and so, like, our bodies adjust to the threat. There's a reason that there's the frog and the boiling water is a metaphor people use over and over again. So back before the election, I was talking to a lot of Trump voters who would say, you know, with the assassination attempt, I think he's learned a lesson. I think he's a kindler, gentler version of himself. Like, I just heard a lot of people who are trying to talk themselves into Trump by saying that he's changed, that he's different. And so I was interested in whether or not these Trump to Harris voters, like how they were thinking about his second term and whether they thought they were going to get Trump from the first go round, chaotic Trump, or did they have hope? Hope dies last as a Russian expression. So let's hear about, from these voters, whether or not they think things could be different with Trump this time around.
- [34:07]
Focus Group Participant 7
I think it's going to be similar early on in that I don't think a lot of his Cabinet picks will be there very long. I think that they'll get flushed out because they're incompetent. That's my feeling. Aside from that, I, I hope that he'll get some pushback from some of the Republicans in the party, knowing that he is, you know, a lame duck and there won't be so fearful of him for next, you know, midterms or whatever and generals. So hopefully they'll have some backbone, maybe stand up with him now that the election's over.
- [34:41]
Focus Group Participant 3
I guess I'm hoping that he will tone down the rhetoric and be more respectful of everybody, regardless of whatever views they hold. But even before he takes office, all this talk about Greenland and renaming it, it just reminds me of his last term, that it's very negative and he's, like, trying to stir things up, and it doesn't seem like he inspires a lot of hope or confidence with our allies abroad. So I want to have hope, but I don't think I have very much.
- [35:24]
Focus Group Participant 5
And I think he believes his lies so much that he's going to continue to do whatever he thinks he wants to do. I'm just guessing that at some point, there will be enough rope that he's going to end up hanging himself. And I'm saying that metaphorically, not literally. I can only hope that someone will have the courage to confront him. But time and time again, we've seen people back down. We saw J.D. vance compare him to Hitler after he wrote his book, and then he sold his soul to get the senatorial endorsement here in Ohio. We saw Mitch McConnell publicly speak that Trump was responsible for January 6th, and then he went ahead and endorsed his reelection bid. We seem to have a lack of courage amongst leaders that would give me the kind of hope that says, hey, this person can at least hold the fort down and rally the voters for the midterm elections to turn this around. So I'm kind of in a hunker down and wait mode, because I don't know what he's going to do if.
- [36:31]
Focus Group Participant 1
We'Re going to have two years of absolute chaos because he's going to get all his stupid cabinet members in there because everybody's folded. Gates is the only one that got out. That's because he was the worst person. I mean, I don't know if he's worse than Trump, but he's dang close. I mean, everybody that's basically said, no, they've turned. So, I mean, it doesn't like any of the cabinet members are not going to be put in there. So everybody's going to just be holding on till midterms. Maybe after midterms, he gets tired of people. I mean, somebody did mention that. I mean, Elon's going to be kicked out eventually. Elon's going to become his worst enemy because he loves somebody until he hates them, and then he's never knew that person, doesn't know who they are. That guy was the worst person ever. I don't know where he came from.
- [37:19]
Focus Group Participant 6
I think it's going to be a continuation of the four years he was in. I think it's going to be worse, though, because I don't think that there is anyone in the existing administration that's going to remain there, that's going to be able to keep him in check. Whereas before, he really didn't know what was going on, how things worked, and so he had to rely on other people to guide him through. And then when it got through and he didn't like the way it turned out, then he turned on them. Unfortunately, I would say I am pessimistic and I wish I can hold on to my breath for four years, but I'm not going to be Able to.
- [38:03]
Sarah Longwell
So, Amanda, you know, it's funny, I listen to these voters and some of them are clear eyed in the sense they're like, Trump's the same guy, he's just going to do the same nutty stuff. And then there's other people who's like, I don't know, maybe it could be okay if whatever. And I guess the one thing that I wanted to pick back up with you, because I've wrestled with it a little bit, is just this idea of democracy as a thing you talk to people about. I gave a whole TED Talk at one point about how after listening to these voters for years and years, like they don't care about democracy, like it's tough and democracy's polarized now. And so, you know, Trump's gonna do all these things to dismantle liberal democracy as we know it. That's what you're talking about in terms of entrenching ways in which he's able to sort of stack things in his favor, you know, putting fans of his in the civil service, all that stuff. But like, I also know that voters aren't gonna be super responsive to the word democracy or threats to democracy. So, like, what do we do now? How do we talk to people about the threat that he poses?
- [39:05]
Amanda Carpenter
Well, number one, what you hear in those voters voices is despair. They are desperate. They're holding out for a hero, right? Like that song. They want something to believe in, they need something uplifting. And I agree, going out and saying like, the worst is yet to come is not an inspiring message. But what is inspiring is essentially saying, if you are scared, now we have a way to fix it. This is where you have to have an alternative vision. I mean, never Trump, we've tried our best, but now is time to actually compete with a better vision. We've pointed out all the bad things. We are there, it is happening. Continuing to say why the sky is falling is not going to work. And so what I'm thinking a lot about, and it's obviously a work in progress, so when you talk about how they entrench power, what that really gets down to is taking away your rights. And the thing that I keep returning to is how much a lot of people don't want to admit it, but they're scared. You know, it kind of comes out and this like, well, I'm just going to wait it out. Would the woman say, I'm going to try to hold my breath? Yeah, I mean, that is dark, it's dire. So how do we communicate this in A way that turns it around where it says, we are going to be able to protect your freedoms, protect your right to speak up, protect your right to organize by exercising these freedoms in a way that's positive. You know, I don't have the perfect way of getting there because I do think it's going to take a lot of trial and error. But first that begins with trying and getting people out of their corners and convincing them. The worst thing that you can do is just sit on the sidelines and wait for this to burn out. You know, the voter there who is saying, well, maybe the cabinet members won't be there for a long time. This is not going to resolve on its own. It's going to require people getting out there and not being fearful and smiling and being ready for this fight in a positive way that other people can believe in. I mean, I know that's not like the perfect answer, but this is where it has to start. Being excited for the task that is before us in a way that is uniting and inspiring. You have to start there.
- [41:15]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, I mean, I think you're on to something that's pretty important, actually, which is that it's one thing for Trump to make promises, right? But now he's gotta govern and governing's hard. And so much of what Trump has sort of put up for people, all of them exist like intention, right? So, like, we're gonna cut all this money with Doge RIP Vive Gramaswami. You're already out, right? We're gonna cut 2 trillion and now we're gonna cut 1 trillion. Okay? But also we're going to spend all this money deporting people. And also we're going to cut taxes. He's got his sort of techno base of MAGA that want more high skilled immigrants and then he's got his MAGA True Blue that do not want any more immigrants. Also, you know, you can't do tariffs and lower prices. So the stuff that's in tension is going to come home to roost. And now is the time for someone to draw a contrast. It's not enough to just say, oh, look at all the bad stuff Trump's doing. You need somebody who's capable of saying, like, this is why this is bad. And this is frankly what Trump and all of his acolytes did the whole way through the Biden administration. They discredited the Biden administration and then they said, like, this is what we'll do. Democrats have to do that. They need leaders who say not only is what Trump is doing wrong, but we won't do this. And I gotta say, I'm not feeling great right now, because on his way out the door, I know where we're going on his last minute, out the door. While the rest of us, you know, really do believe that Donald Trump is a threat to democracy. You got Joe Biden doing a bunch of preemptive pardons, which I gotta say, I feel slightly complicated about that for, like, the January 6th committee. I don't love it. I think it probably was the wrong move, but I understand that. But he did just, like preemptive, sweeping pardons for his whole family. Trump was gonna pardon the January 6ers no matter what. Biden didn't lay the groundwork for Trump to do that. What he did was take away the moral authority of his supporters to condemn Trump for it. And if you're gonna present a contrast on things, you have to have the moral authority to do it. So we did ask these voters about the pardons, but before we listen to them, tell me what you thought.
- [43:26]
Amanda Carpenter
I hated it. I've been on the pardon thing for a long. Since I was writing the book, doing podcasts about it. I think the pardon abuse is rampant. It is probably the grossest abuse of power that, you know, I've really tracked so closely. It's unbelievable to me that Biden did this for Hunter and then his own family members. And, you know, I'm outraged. I don't know how lit feels about it, but I'm outraged on her behalf when she said she didn't want it and he essentially shoved it at her anyway, don't understand that. And then people that did want it, like Alexander Vindman, according to his wife, I am against all of these preemptive pardons for the reason that these people aren't guilty, number one. And, of course, the first thing, when Trump was in the Oval Office, essentially saying, well, this shows they were guilty, that just made me sick. And I'm not saying Biden shouldn't do something because of what Trump says, but that hit was coming, and that just makes me ill. But also the reason why I'm personally against all of these preemptive pardons is that, sorry, Joe Biden, you can't write them fast enough to cover everybody and to solve this problem that has been created by Trump, what, you're going to save Liz Cheney, who's more equipped than anybody to fight this, so that he can go after somebody else? The unfairness of it, it doesn't solve the problem. People didn't want it Like, I just want to get in that White House and be like, who thought this was a good idea? What cause do you think you were advancing by doing this? I'm extremely, extremely mad about it in a way that I don't know why it feels personal, but it does.
- [44:56]
Sarah Longwell
Oh, I can tell you why it feels personal. It feels personal because Joe Biden, I think, as a political message, mistakenly hit democracy really hard. Really. When he should have been talking about Price and other things, he was talking about democracy. And those of us who are not exactly partisan Democrats, though, are very much out on the maga. Republican Party were holding out hope that Joe Biden would live up to his word on the democracy front. So that, at least for us, as we want to make sure that we are after Trump all day, every day and trying to uphold some of these things, that is part of the inside game. I don't think it's how you talk to people from a public relations standpoint or how you get people, but I do think there's an inside game that's really important on democracy. And I just think he screwed us on it in a lot of ways because there's nobody else sort of to point to, to have the consistency. Like, he screwed Democrats on it, everybody, just for his own personal gain. And you're right, the extent to which it was like, this is the Biden crime family. And look, we can say that's garbage, but I don't know. I mean, there were some, like, credible allegations on his brother. Like, look, the whole thing feels really, really, really gross. And he said he wasn't going to do it.
- [46:09]
Amanda Carpenter
Yeah. And the fact that he lied, I'd say the talking point, that really burned me, because it's true. You know, the MAGA people that were defending Trump were just, well, Trump told you he was going to do it.
- [46:20]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
- [46:21]
Amanda Carpenter
Biden didn't. Biden lied.
- [46:22]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
- [46:22]
Amanda Carpenter
At least Trump was honest about it. And that. That was a gut punch. You know, I don't even like to admit it, but that's what happened.
- [46:28]
Sarah Longwell
And, like, we know, is there a difference between Trump pardoning people who definitely broke the law, who've already been convicted of assaulting cops, and Joe Biden trying to preemptively pardon people who didn't do anything wrong, but Trump and his FBI director said that they're going to go after. Of course there's a difference. There's an ethical, moral difference. But, like, I just listen to voters all the time be like, I don't know who to trust. You know, Donald Trump has documents in his house. But then Joe Biden has documents in his house and Mike Pence does. Voters can't sort through all of the nuanced differences there. They just know, well, everybody does it. No, everybody does it. And that's what undermines ultimately the face. Anyway, let's listen to Jim and just.
- [47:10]
Amanda Carpenter
One more point on this, because I'm trying to just like, diagnose my exact revulsion and disgust at this when he was in the Oval office excusing his January 6th pardons because Biden did this. It just felt awful and it wasn't true, it wasn't right. But it's just, it's like, okay, we all abuse the pardon power now. That's how it is.
- [47:33]
Sarah Longwell
That's right. Get rid of the pardon power, period. Yeah. Anyway, let's listen to what some of these voters, though, the Trump to Harris voters, thought about the pardons.
- [47:42]
Focus Group Participant 3
I was very happy because that was the big issue I had with the Republicans, was that they're supporting Trump. When it was proved that he was involved the January 6, they all backed him, and Cheney and Kinzinger were one of the ones that came forward and we're showing the evidence or holding the trial or whatever. So I am very glad that he will not be able to take action against them. I'm glad that Biden did that because they were doing the right thing.
- [48:18]
Focus Group Participant 8
I thought it was unnecessary because I think Trump is a little more bluster than action, and they were all in a fairly good position to defend themselves anyway. And if you're in public office, you take the flag as it comes. I think what's much more egregious is pardoning his son for all the things that he did and that he was involved with, with Biden's scams and cash laundering and all that. And he did that partly to protect himself, because even though the Republicans only got circumstantial evidence, it was pretty comprehensive circumstantial evidence that they had all these things going on. It's obvious he trafficked on his father's office. So even after Biden said he wouldn't do it, he went ahead and did it. I think Biden did a number of unethical things near the end of his term, and that was one of them. But I think that the ones today, or very recently for the secondary politicians, I thought that was unnecessary area, but I don't have a strong opinion about it.
- [49:25]
Amanda Carpenter
Anyone worry that pardoning folks like this.
- [49:29]
Focus Group Participant 4
Might kind of give Trump cover to.
- [49:31]
Amanda Carpenter
Do some similar things down the road.
- [49:33]
Sarah Longwell
For his own political allies.
- [49:36]
Focus Group Participant 1
He already does it.
- [49:40]
Sarah Longwell
So I gotta say, most of this group we played extensively. The one guy who was kind of against it and could articulate why, and that guy voted for Harris, and he was mad at Biden for doing it. But most of the people in the group were fine with it, which I think, you know, for me is sort of part of the problem. Whenever I speak out against it, I am flooded with comments from people who are just furious at the idea that what would you do if it was your son? And I would not have run for president a second time is my answer, if we cared about that. But they want to see these people protected. They do think that Trump is a unique threat. But I don't think people realize how much this sort of tit for tat ultimately erodes the things that we care about and the foundation of the rule of law in this country. But it's going to get tougher and tougher to have people understand that that's what we're trying to preserve.
- [50:32]
Amanda Carpenter
Yeah. And I do think that is part of the storytelling that needs to happen going Forward from the January 6th pardons for violent actors. I mean, there's, you know, thousands of them. Not all of them committed crimes against the police and things like that. But the likelihood that people who received a pardon or commutation commit acts of violence or political violence in the future, I would say is higher than none. I don't want to speculate in the odds because I don't know any of these people personally or anything like that. But that's. That's something that needs to be tracked, because there's going to be a lot of bad actors that feel empowered as a result of this act of undeserved mercy that Trump gave them. And communicating the effect that pardon abuse has when those acts of violence do happen will be necessary.
- [51:21]
Sarah Longwell
Do you think the Democrats should distance themselves from what Biden did and try to articulate why it was wrong? Or do you think that they should be communicating right now like, no, we need to fight like Republicans?
- [51:34]
Amanda Carpenter
They owe Biden nothing. Yeah, they owe Biden nothing because he gave them nothing. That's my feeling on that.
- [51:43]
Sarah Longwell
All right, Amanda Carpenter, thank you so much for joining us. And thanks to all of you for listening to the focus group podcast. Remember to rate and review us on Apple podcasts. Subscribe to The Bulwark on YouTube and become a Bulwark plus member at the Bulwark.com Bye, guys.
- [51:59]
Focus Group Participant 3
SA.