The Focus Group Podcast: Episode S5 Ep21 - New Jersey's (Very) Odd Year (with Amy Walter)
Release Date: June 7, 2025
Overview
In Season 5, Episode 21 of The Focus Group Podcast titled "New Jersey's (Very) Odd Year," host Sarah Longwell engages in a deep-dive discussion with Amy Walter, Editor-in-Chief of the Cook Political Report and host of the podcast The Odd Years. This episode explores the complexities of the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial race, the broader implications of off-year elections, and the evolving dynamics within the Democratic Party amidst a changing political landscape.
1. Introduction
Sarah Longwell opens the episode by introducing Amy Walter, highlighting her extensive experience with focus groups across the country. The initial exchanges establish a collegial rapport and set the stage for a nuanced discussion on New Jersey's gubernatorial race.
Notable Exchange:
- Sarah Longwell (00:36): "This race is interesting for a couple of reasons. One, the Democratic primary features a lot of the key dynamics in the party that we've talked about on this show."
2. The Importance of Odd-Year Elections
Amy Walter elucidates the significance of odd-year elections in shaping the broader political ecosystem. She references historical instances where off-year races influenced party dynamics and voter enthusiasm.
Key Points:
- Early Indicators: Off-year elections serve as early indicators for future electoral cycles, affecting donor behavior and candidate recruitment.
- Historical Impact:
- 2017: Democratic enthusiasm surged in Virginia, leading to significant turnout and setting the tone for future elections.
- 2021 & 2022: Shifts influenced by external events like the Dobbs decision, altering midterm dynamics more significantly than typical off-year trends.
Notable Quote:
- Amy Walter (02:16): “These races really do set the tone. Even though, as we all know, an off year is just that it has a different turnout pattern, a different electorate. But it is very important, not just for the vibes, but the vibes themselves impact what people decide to do.”
3. Political Realignment and Voter Sentiment in New Jersey
The conversation transitions to the current political climate in New Jersey, emphasizing the state's shift towards Trump-era policies and the concerns among Democratic voters about the viability of Republican candidates.
Key Points:
- Shift Towards Trump: New Jersey experienced one of the most significant movements towards Trump in recent elections, particularly in traditionally Democratic urban areas.
- Democratic Concerns: Voters express frustration with the party's ability to present candidates who can effectively counteract Republican gains.
Notable Quote:
- Sarah Longwell (05:03): “New Jersey ... has seen such movement towards Trump in the general election. There's real fear among these Democratic voters that Republican could be viable even in a time when you would think the backlash would be benefiting Democrats.”
4. The New Jersey Gubernatorial Race: Focus Group Insights
Sarah and Amy delve into the specifics of the New Jersey gubernatorial race, drawing insights from recent focus groups to understand voter priorities and candidate perceptions.
a. Key Issues for Voters
Focus group participants in New Jersey highlighted several critical issues shaping their voting decisions, with cost of living and housing affordability topping the list.
Key Points:
- Cost of Living: High living costs, especially housing prices, are the most pressing concern. Voters are frustrated with the lack of affordable housing options despite initiatives like housing lotteries.
- Anti-Trump Sentiment: Voters desire candidates who actively resist Trump-era policies and protect state sovereignty against national cultural agendas.
Notable Quotes:
- Voter C (12:46): “I want to know how they're going to handle it, which is like my number one reason that I will not be voting for Philip as our governor...”
- Voter C (15:11): “Someone that is going to stand up against these Trump era policies.”
b. Candidate Analysis: Ross Baraka
Ross Baraka emerges as a prominent figure among voters, particularly due to his active engagement and symbolic resistance against federal policies like ICE operations.
Key Points:
- Community Engagement: Baraka is perceived as a hands-on leader who actively fights for his community, exemplified by his recent arrest during an ICE facility visit.
- Voter Perception: Focus groups view Baraka's arrest as a testament to his commitment, enhancing his appeal among voters who prioritize activist leadership.
Notable Quotes:
- Voter Group (26:55): “He's out in the community. I mean, it's Newark right now... He's fighting for them.”
- Amy Walter (29:19): “He's going to be somebody that will both lower prices... and also that you think what's happening to this country is out of control and you're prepared to do something about it, including getting arrested.”
c. Candidate Analysis: Mikey Sherrill
Despite leading in public polls, Mikey Sherrill struggles to garner support within the focus groups. Voters perceive her as too establishment and lack the authentic, combative stance desired against Trump-era policies.
Key Points:
- Perception of Elitism: Sherrill is labeled as “Montclair Mikey,” suggesting she is out of touch and elitist.
- Policy Concerns: Issues like accepting funds from organizations affiliated with Elon Musk and perceived insider trading allegations tarnish her image.
- Lack of Emotional Connection: Her campaign ads focusing on military experience and motherhood do not resonate authentically with voters seeking passionate leadership.
Notable Quotes:
- Voter C (35:32): “She's a little more establishment... she's a helicopter pilot, and if I were voting in this race, she would be my vote.”
- Voter C (38:17): “I didn’t want to take a vote away from someone else, but I don’t think people are ready to vote.”
d. Other Candidates: Cory Booker
Cory Booker receives mixed reviews from focus group participants. While some appreciate his legislative efforts, others criticize his perceived inconsistency and inability to fully commit to progressive ideals.
Key Points:
- Mixed Performances: Booker's actions, such as his filibuster, are praised, but his subsequent votes and actions create confusion about his true political stance.
- Authenticity Concerns: Voters question whether Booker is genuinely progressive or merely performing for political gain.
Notable Quotes:
- Voter C (54:15): “I feel like he's the politician for the moment... does what's going to give him a good name at that moment.”
- Voter C (55:22): “He just is exactly who he is in every one of these types of interviews, whether it is sitting down with a mega anchor on a TV show or...”
5. The Challenge of Authenticity in Democratic Campaigns
A central theme of the episode is the Democratic Party's struggle to present authentic, passionate candidates who can effectively combat the performative politics of the Republican/MAGA coalition.
Key Points:
- Performative vs. Authentic Leadership: Democrats are pressured to balance between being effective legislators and portraying passionate, anti-Trump figures.
- Voter Expectations: There is a strong demand for candidates who not only legislate but also visibly embody the fight against Trump-era policies.
- Comparative Analysis: Amy Walter contrasts effective authentic leadership examples, such as Gavin Newsom and Mike Shapiro, with less effective attempts by other Democrats, highlighting the importance of consistent, genuine engagement.
Notable Quotes:
- Amy Walter (32:41): “And what Democrats are saying is, don't just talk about it. Show me what you want to do. And I need to see you a lot in the same way that we see Donald Trump a lot.”
- Sarah Longwell (33:28): “They want you to do something, safe hasn't really worked. Safe is what got us into this place.”
6. Conclusion: Democratic Strategies and Future Outlook
Sarah and Amy conclude by reflecting on the broader implications of the focus group findings for the Democratic Party's future strategies. They discuss the necessity for Democrats to reconcile their diverse base, enhance authenticity, and develop strategies that effectively address both turnout and voter persuasion.
Key Points:
- Balancing Act: Democrats must navigate the tension between maintaining their policy-driven base and appealing to cross-over, moderate voters.
- Strategic Recommendations: Emphasizing genuine, passionate leadership over purely strategic, establishment candidates to resonate with voters' desires for authentic representation.
- Looking Ahead: The New Jersey race serves as a microcosm for national Democratic challenges, highlighting the need for adaptable strategies as the political landscape continues to evolve.
Notable Quotes:
- Amy Walter (60:11): “What's the big risk? So what, we go with Trump, we lose? It feels very much where Democrats are now.”
- Sarah Longwell (61:14): “What a good politician is now is you got to figure out how to be a person... they're demanding your humanity.”
Final Thoughts
This episode of The Focus Group Podcast offers a comprehensive analysis of the intricate dynamics within New Jersey's gubernatorial race, shedding light on the broader challenges facing the Democratic Party. Through insightful discussion and real voter perspectives, Sarah Longwell and Amy Walter underscore the critical need for authenticity, strategic adaptability, and unified efforts to navigate the ever-evolving political landscape.
Notable Quotes Summary
-
Amy Walter (02:16): “These races really do set the tone. Even though, as we all know, an off year is just that it has a different turnout pattern, a different electorate. But it is very important, not just for the vibes, but the vibes themselves impact what people decide to do.”
-
Sarah Longwell (05:03): “New Jersey ... has seen such movement towards Trump in the general election. There's real fear among these Democratic voters that Republican could be viable even in a time when you would think the backlash would be benefiting Democrats.”
-
Amy Walter (32:41): “And what Democrats are saying is, don't just talk about it. Show me what you want to do. And I need to see you a lot in the same way that we see Donald Trump a lot.”
-
Sarah Longwell (61:14): “What a good politician is now is you got to figure out how to be a person... they're demanding your humanity.”