S5 Ep21: New Jersey's (Very) Odd Year (with Amy Walter)

Summary

The Focus Group Podcast: Episode S5 Ep21 - New Jersey's (Very) Odd Year (with Amy Walter)

Release Date: June 7, 2025

Overview

In Season 5, Episode 21 of The Focus Group Podcast titled "New Jersey's (Very) Odd Year," host Sarah Longwell engages in a deep-dive discussion with Amy Walter, Editor-in-Chief of the Cook Political Report and host of the podcast The Odd Years. This episode explores the complexities of the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial race, the broader implications of off-year elections, and the evolving dynamics within the Democratic Party amidst a changing political landscape.

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1. Introduction

Sarah Longwell opens the episode by introducing Amy Walter, highlighting her extensive experience with focus groups across the country. The initial exchanges establish a collegial rapport and set the stage for a nuanced discussion on New Jersey's gubernatorial race.

Notable Exchange:

• Sarah Longwell (00:36): "This race is interesting for a couple of reasons. One, the Democratic primary features a lot of the key dynamics in the party that we've talked about on this show."

---

2. The Importance of Odd-Year Elections

Amy Walter elucidates the significance of odd-year elections in shaping the broader political ecosystem. She references historical instances where off-year races influenced party dynamics and voter enthusiasm.

Key Points:

• Early Indicators: Off-year elections serve as early indicators for future electoral cycles, affecting donor behavior and candidate recruitment.
• Historical Impact:
  • 2017: Democratic enthusiasm surged in Virginia, leading to significant turnout and setting the tone for future elections.
  • 2021 & 2022: Shifts influenced by external events like the Dobbs decision, altering midterm dynamics more significantly than typical off-year trends.

Notable Quote:

• Amy Walter (02:16): “These races really do set the tone. Even though, as we all know, an off year is just that it has a different turnout pattern, a different electorate. But it is very important, not just for the vibes, but the vibes themselves impact what people decide to do.”

---

3. Political Realignment and Voter Sentiment in New Jersey

The conversation transitions to the current political climate in New Jersey, emphasizing the state's shift towards Trump-era policies and the concerns among Democratic voters about the viability of Republican candidates.

Key Points:

• Shift Towards Trump: New Jersey experienced one of the most significant movements towards Trump in recent elections, particularly in traditionally Democratic urban areas.
• Democratic Concerns: Voters express frustration with the party's ability to present candidates who can effectively counteract Republican gains.

Notable Quote:

• Sarah Longwell (05:03): “New Jersey ... has seen such movement towards Trump in the general election. There's real fear among these Democratic voters that Republican could be viable even in a time when you would think the backlash would be benefiting Democrats.”

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4. The New Jersey Gubernatorial Race: Focus Group Insights

Sarah and Amy delve into the specifics of the New Jersey gubernatorial race, drawing insights from recent focus groups to understand voter priorities and candidate perceptions.

a. Key Issues for Voters

Focus group participants in New Jersey highlighted several critical issues shaping their voting decisions, with cost of living and housing affordability topping the list.

Key Points:

• Cost of Living: High living costs, especially housing prices, are the most pressing concern. Voters are frustrated with the lack of affordable housing options despite initiatives like housing lotteries.
• Anti-Trump Sentiment: Voters desire candidates who actively resist Trump-era policies and protect state sovereignty against national cultural agendas.

Notable Quotes:

• Voter C (12:46): “I want to know how they're going to handle it, which is like my number one reason that I will not be voting for Philip as our governor...”
• Voter C (15:11): “Someone that is going to stand up against these Trump era policies.”

b. Candidate Analysis: Ross Baraka

Ross Baraka emerges as a prominent figure among voters, particularly due to his active engagement and symbolic resistance against federal policies like ICE operations.

Key Points:

• Community Engagement: Baraka is perceived as a hands-on leader who actively fights for his community, exemplified by his recent arrest during an ICE facility visit.
• Voter Perception: Focus groups view Baraka's arrest as a testament to his commitment, enhancing his appeal among voters who prioritize activist leadership.

Notable Quotes:

• Voter Group (26:55): “He's out in the community. I mean, it's Newark right now... He's fighting for them.”
• Amy Walter (29:19): “He's going to be somebody that will both lower prices... and also that you think what's happening to this country is out of control and you're prepared to do something about it, including getting arrested.”

c. Candidate Analysis: Mikey Sherrill

Despite leading in public polls, Mikey Sherrill struggles to garner support within the focus groups. Voters perceive her as too establishment and lack the authentic, combative stance desired against Trump-era policies.

Key Points:

• Perception of Elitism: Sherrill is labeled as “Montclair Mikey,” suggesting she is out of touch and elitist.
• Policy Concerns: Issues like accepting funds from organizations affiliated with Elon Musk and perceived insider trading allegations tarnish her image.
• Lack of Emotional Connection: Her campaign ads focusing on military experience and motherhood do not resonate authentically with voters seeking passionate leadership.

Notable Quotes:

• Voter C (35:32): “She's a little more establishment... she's a helicopter pilot, and if I were voting in this race, she would be my vote.”
• Voter C (38:17): “I didn’t want to take a vote away from someone else, but I don’t think people are ready to vote.”

d. Other Candidates: Cory Booker

Cory Booker receives mixed reviews from focus group participants. While some appreciate his legislative efforts, others criticize his perceived inconsistency and inability to fully commit to progressive ideals.

Key Points:

• Mixed Performances: Booker's actions, such as his filibuster, are praised, but his subsequent votes and actions create confusion about his true political stance.
• Authenticity Concerns: Voters question whether Booker is genuinely progressive or merely performing for political gain.

Notable Quotes:

• Voter C (54:15): “I feel like he's the politician for the moment... does what's going to give him a good name at that moment.”
• Voter C (55:22): “He just is exactly who he is in every one of these types of interviews, whether it is sitting down with a mega anchor on a TV show or...”

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5. The Challenge of Authenticity in Democratic Campaigns

A central theme of the episode is the Democratic Party's struggle to present authentic, passionate candidates who can effectively combat the performative politics of the Republican/MAGA coalition.

Key Points:

• Performative vs. Authentic Leadership: Democrats are pressured to balance between being effective legislators and portraying passionate, anti-Trump figures.
• Voter Expectations: There is a strong demand for candidates who not only legislate but also visibly embody the fight against Trump-era policies.
• Comparative Analysis: Amy Walter contrasts effective authentic leadership examples, such as Gavin Newsom and Mike Shapiro, with less effective attempts by other Democrats, highlighting the importance of consistent, genuine engagement.

Notable Quotes:

• Amy Walter (32:41): “And what Democrats are saying is, don't just talk about it. Show me what you want to do. And I need to see you a lot in the same way that we see Donald Trump a lot.”
• Sarah Longwell (33:28): “They want you to do something, safe hasn't really worked. Safe is what got us into this place.”

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6. Conclusion: Democratic Strategies and Future Outlook

Sarah and Amy conclude by reflecting on the broader implications of the focus group findings for the Democratic Party's future strategies. They discuss the necessity for Democrats to reconcile their diverse base, enhance authenticity, and develop strategies that effectively address both turnout and voter persuasion.

Key Points:

• Balancing Act: Democrats must navigate the tension between maintaining their policy-driven base and appealing to cross-over, moderate voters.
• Strategic Recommendations: Emphasizing genuine, passionate leadership over purely strategic, establishment candidates to resonate with voters' desires for authentic representation.
• Looking Ahead: The New Jersey race serves as a microcosm for national Democratic challenges, highlighting the need for adaptable strategies as the political landscape continues to evolve.

Notable Quotes:

• Amy Walter (60:11): “What's the big risk? So what, we go with Trump, we lose? It feels very much where Democrats are now.”
• Sarah Longwell (61:14): “What a good politician is now is you got to figure out how to be a person... they're demanding your humanity.”

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Final Thoughts

This episode of The Focus Group Podcast offers a comprehensive analysis of the intricate dynamics within New Jersey's gubernatorial race, shedding light on the broader challenges facing the Democratic Party. Through insightful discussion and real voter perspectives, Sarah Longwell and Amy Walter underscore the critical need for authenticity, strategic adaptability, and unified efforts to navigate the ever-evolving political landscape.

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Notable Quotes Summary

• Amy Walter (02:16): “These races really do set the tone. Even though, as we all know, an off year is just that it has a different turnout pattern, a different electorate. But it is very important, not just for the vibes, but the vibes themselves impact what people decide to do.”

• Sarah Longwell (05:03): “New Jersey ... has seen such movement towards Trump in the general election. There's real fear among these Democratic voters that Republican could be viable even in a time when you would think the backlash would be benefiting Democrats.”

• Amy Walter (32:41): “And what Democrats are saying is, don't just talk about it. Show me what you want to do. And I need to see you a lot in the same way that we see Donald Trump a lot.”

• Sarah Longwell (61:14): “What a good politician is now is you got to figure out how to be a person... they're demanding your humanity.”

Transcript

[Amy Walter]

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[Amy Walter]

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[Amy Walter]

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[Sarah Longwell]

Hello everyone, and welcome to the Focus Group podcast. I'm Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark, and this week we're diving into one of the major off year elections of 2025, the New Jersey governor's race. This race is interesting for a couple of reasons. One, the Democratic primary features a lot of the key dynamics in the party that we've talked about on this show. And New Jers as a whole saw a lot of the key shifts that defined the 2024 election. My guest today is back for her sixth appearance on the focus group, Amy Walter, editor in chief of the Cook Political Report and host of the podcast the Odd Years, which is no longer paywalled. And so you should definitely check it out.

[Amy Walter]

Do I get a jacket?

[Sarah Longwell]

We've talked about this before about, like, what I could give you, but the thing is, like, just nobody's been on more than you. Like, I think you are like our inaugural show.

[Amy Walter]

Yeah. I feel very honored. I have a mug, the focus group.

[Sarah Longwell]

Mug, that we send that to the guests. Yes.

[Amy Walter]

Thank you for that.

[Sarah Longwell]

We could send you a box now, a collection. I feel like I haven't had you on for a long time, but I think it speaks to what a good analyst you are and how much I like talking to you about politics. Also, we should just acknowledge we are like real life friends too.

[Amy Walter]

Yes. Okay. So fine. We've got a lot going on. There are a lot of intersections.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's a true thing. Okay, since you are an odd years expert, just talk us through the macro of how the odd years matter in the conversation about politics. And I just mean, like, to political nerds like us who are like, ooh, these are the only things we have to chew on in the odd years. But, like, how does it affect the wider political ecosystem, vibes, whatever.

[Amy Walter]

Yeah, no, it's a really good question. And I was just talking to somebody about this the other day about, you know, what does recruiting look like and Senate races? And in some ways it feels very early because it is. And you've got most states that don't even have filing deadlines until deep into 2026. But the vibes, the mood really can be impacted by these off year elections. And we certainly saw that in 2021, when the Republicans not only picked up the Virginia governor's race, but came very close to knocking off Phil Murphy in New Jersey, which was completely unexpected. And so it was there at that point where Democrats were deeply in the doldrums, Republicans were measuring the drapes not just for a majority in the House, but an absolute blowout of an election in a midterm. And that really stayed true in terms of Democratic enthusiasm being low, Republican enthusiasm being off the charts all the way until this little event in June of 2022, known as the Dobbs decision, which really did alter the direction of the midterms in 2022 much more than the off year. But 2017, Sarah, we all remember, we saw Democratic enthusiasm that just went crazy here in Virginia. It wasn't just the governor's race, but state legislative candidates. I remember talking to somebody in 2017, she was working for a Democratic state Senate race. Talking to her the day of the election, and she said that Turnout at like 8 in the morning had already surpassed the highest level that it had been in the previous off year election. So it tells us a lot about the mood of the electorate at that point that impacts, as you know, how donors and candidates feel about the upcoming year. If it looks like a really bad year for one party or the other, you may get incumbent members of Congress or other offices saying, you know, maybe now's the time to tap out. If it looks great for that party, they say, you know what, I should jump into this race. I've been sitting on the fence too long. And then donors also get excited or depressed based on that. So these races really do set the tone. Even though, as we all know, an off year is just that it has a different turnout pattern, a different electorate. But it is very important, not just for the vibes, but the vibes themselves impact what people decide to do. And so they matter.

[Sarah Longwell]

I'm glad you brought up 2017, because Trump was the president in 2017, so 2017 was the height of the resistance. Yes. And, you know, I think we were all ready for the 2018 blowout. So now, as a corollary in Trump's second term, I don't know that people feel quite as blowouty as they as they did before. And in a place like New Jersey, you know, as we get into the focus groups because it did see such movement towards Trump in the general election. There's real fear among these Democratic voters that are Republican could be viable even in a time when you would think the backlash would be benefiting Democrats. And so what do you make of that? Like, the difference in 2017-25?

[Amy Walter]

I've been trying to sort of figure that out. Like, what is it, is it that in 2017 this was such a new phenomenon? Who is this Donald Trump character when the things he was doing were so norm busting like nothing anybody had seen? And I also think that so many Democrats went into the 2016 election convinced not only only that they were going to win, but they also weren't like that excited about Hillary Clinton. And they came out of the 2016 election and into 2017 with a whole what is this going to mean? Number one, like, they didn't really know what the world was going to look like. In some cases, you had some voters who had voted third party or sat home because they weren't excited about Hillary Clinton going, oh, whoops, maybe I should have not done that. And I also think there was this real deep belief among Democrats that this was an illegitimately elected president. He didn't really win. He literally didn't win the popular vote. His margins were so narrow in the key states that decided the Electoral College, that this was really just something of a fluke or if you went into like deep conspiracy, that he's a Russian plant. And this was all sort of set up from the very beginning. So that was really what was driving so much of the 2017, 2018 energy. Now here we are. Donald Trump won the popular vote, wasn't very close in some of those swing states. He won all of them. And Democrats have now spent the first six months, instead of protesting, Trump really getting angry at their own party. And it's not just like self reflection. There is a lot of self flagellation, frustration. You also heard that in the groups. A couple of those New Jersey voters saying, I'm so angry at Democrats right now, I can't even tell you. I feel like they're totally feckless. And what that means, we will soon come to find out. If those same voters who right now say, I don't trust the party, I'm mad at the party leaders, this party's too old. I can't believe Joe Biden ran again, even though he should have stepped down all of that. If they're going to say all those things and yet still turn out because Donald Trump remains for them an existential threat or whether they say, you guys aren't giving us the kind of candidates we want, We've told you who we do want to see. You keep giving us the wrong people. Forget it. I'm just going to stay home.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. Last question before we get into the groups on this. I mean, one of the things that I think is becoming clearer in the new world in terms of how Trump has kind of scrambled the electorate. New political realignment, say the Dems just have more of these college educated suburban voters who are A, reading the news much more closely and B, always turn out like they are very reliable voters. And Trump and the Republican coalition is now counting on more sort of, I'll call them low info, but I don't really mean low info. I just mean people who are like slightly less tapped into politics and are more regular voters and so they don't turn out in these midterm elections. Like, that's one of the things I'm looking for in this is to see if that pattern holds or if Republicans figure out a more aggressive midterm game. What do you think?

[Amy Walter]

Yeah, I think that is a very important point. And I do think Democrats just structurally, in off years, special elections, et cetera, they do have a structure structural advantage. So that is just the reality. What can undermine that structural advantage is enthusiasm or some other event that motivates these voters. And I keep going back to 2022 because, you know, that was on display. But on the other side, Democrats were turning out their highest level voters in 2021, but not their lower propensity voters. Right. There are still low propensity Democratic voters, but they weren't excited at all in 2021. And it wasn't until the abortion decision came down that it really motivated those lower motivated Democrats. I also think the environment in 2021 was also bad for every voter. Right. Inflation was going up. And so what we talked about, Sarah, in 2022 a lot were these voters that I called them meh voters. Right. They weren't happy with Biden and the job he was doing. But the issue that ultimately was motivating them to go out and vote was the abortion issue or. And you ran many of these campaigns, the issues of candidates who were election deniers. And that also seemed to be a motivator for some of these voters. Just the overall mood was pretty bleak in the country.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. I mean, in 22, the candidate quality on the Republican side was also not great, was terrible. This was like the Herschel Walker Walkers and the Carrie Lakes and a Bunch of people who drew together people who were big election deniers and they tended to be the most radical anti abortion types, which sort of fused together for voters into a picture of someone who was simply too extreme to vote for. And so that'll be interesting to see if Republicans are able to correct on some of that with their Republican candidates. All right, let's get into these New Jersey Democrats that we talked to. We did two groups of New Jersey Democrats for this show. And I want to be really clear, we screened for people who plan to vote and were more familiar with the candidates. That is a particular type of voter. And I just want to make it clear up front that when you screen for people who know them, you're already getting people who are much more tapped in, especially because there's a lot of Democratic candidates in this race. And so one thing that was really interesting was how closely these Democrats views still in the year 2025 had echoes of the issues that won Trump the last election, especially the cost of living, which is super high in New Jersey. And like, is just what people talk about right out of the gate. And it may explain and Amy, you know, more oftentimes at the granular level than I do, but it may partly explain why New Jersey had among the biggest shifts to the right of any state in the country last year in the last election. So listen to what these Democrats had top of mind as they thought about this race. And we asked them, what's important to you? Let's listen.

[Amy Walter]

I think that my thought process is.

[Sarah Longwell]

Almost split 50, 50 in terms of.

[C]

On one hand, what do I feel is going to be best for the state that I call home and anticipate calling home for the foreseeable future and hope to do major things here like.

[Sarah Longwell]

Purchase my first home, things like that.

[Amy Walter]

There is a lot of overlap and.

[Sarah Longwell]

Similarity in messaging on a lot of.

[C]

Those things, but that is part of the calculus on the other side, I.

[Amy Walter]

Think how do different candidates, particularly through.

[Sarah Longwell]

Their communication, fit into the landscape of what's going on at more of a national level. I am not particularly interested in the.

[C]

Type of character that would fall in line and be another cog in the.

[Sarah Longwell]

Wheel of the Democratic institution. I know New Jersey has kind of always been unaffordable, but the housing to me is like a really big issue at this point in time. Even with like the housing lotteries that they're doing. I was in one, wasn't able to get it. They want you to make like pennies, which is like, how can I make pennies and still pay this rent that you're offering me, that's like regular rent, but you're selling it to me like this is some kind of like, gift that you're giving me. So when I look at the candidates, I want to know how they're going to handle it, which is like my number one reason that I will not be voting for Philip as our governor, because he's already been mayor of Jersey City. And I'm very disappointed with the progress that he's made within the city as far as like transforming it from a diverse melting pot of cultures and working class people to like a mini Manhattan, which is not what I signed up for.

[Amy Walter]

I want New Jersey to be a lot more affordable.

[C]

It's hard to exist and I just feel like cost of everything keep going.

[Amy Walter]

Up with the housing.

[C]

I mean, me and my wife two years ago purchased a home that I, I would say probably sold for $100,000 over what it would have just a few years ago. And I'm seeing what's happening now in our area. Like, houses are starting at almost $600,000 now.

[Amy Walter]

As our family grows, if we want to buy a bigger house or something.

[C]

I don't even know how it's going to happen.

[Sarah Longwell]

I had to move from my hometown of Hackensack in Bergen county to Essex county because there was no affordable housing. I mean, the prices were astronomical. Not that I'm not familiar with Essex County. Luckily I have family, but still, it's a problem to me when people have to move out of where they live involuntarily. So definitely a focus on that. Someone that is going to stand up against these Trump era policies. I mean, when I turn on the news and I see what's at risk in these other states, I mean, abortion, education, taking away books, I need somebody to stand up for that and make sure that we do not turn into that.

[C]

The other part of it is who is going to do the best job at Trump proofing, so to speak, the state. Someone mentioned that. I think the last woman that spoke actually talked about that. I am not in favor of, of the United States of America being a patchwork of depending on where you live, being safe from Trump or not. But if I'm going to remain here in New Jersey, I definitely want to be one of those states.

[Sarah Longwell]

Certainly I basically want somebody that's going to fight Trump on the highest level because my rights as American have been stolen from me. But I'm not proud to be in this country at this time. I mean, obviously I want Somebody, whoever is going to be governor of this state to fight this man who has taken over our country. And, you know, I don't know if any of them, to be quite honest, is going to be able to do the job properly. But I'm hoping that whoever does win is going to be somebody that can fight him to the highest level because he makes me want to throw up.

[C]

Basically, I'm more interested in the progressive.

[Sarah Longwell]

Candidates, although I think some of the.

[C]

Policies that some of progressive candidates have put forward doesn't necessarily jive with my.

[Sarah Longwell]

Interests in terms of.

[C]

In terms of property taxes, income taxes.

[Amy Walter]

But overall, I think looking at the.

[C]

Latest polls, it says really at this.

[Sarah Longwell]

Point is between two candidates, even though.

[Amy Walter]

There are six in the docket.

[Sarah Longwell]

Easy. Anyone could get videoed doing one thing like, yay, I did what's right. But like, I want a candidate who does what's right all the time and has integrity when no one's watching. So I'm really looking at that. And they're so well known, all the candidates, it's easy to figure out who has been there. Okay. Lower prices, fight Trump. That's what I heard.

[Amy Walter]

Yeah, I did, too. Make things affordable.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah.

[Amy Walter]

And also make sure that Trump doesn't get a foothold in the state. To me, what's the most interesting is that I couldn't quite figure out if you had asked them, Sarah. Okay, you get one candidate, one candidate that is going to be really, really good at making sure that Donald Trump has no ability to, like, put his national agenda into New Jersey and the school, blah, blah, blah. Or you get a candidate who is going to really focus exclusively on housing. Which one would you choose?

[Sarah Longwell]

Note to my moderator, that is a great question. We should have asked that. As we go through the show, I think we can draw some inferences from what we heard.

[Amy Walter]

Yes, we can. Absolutely.

[Sarah Longwell]

Here's one of the things. You know, New Jersey only went for Kamala Harris by six points. Now, that may sound like a pretty healthy margin, but Biden won it by 16 points in 2020, partly because folks felt the cost of living especially acutely. Right. Which we are hearing from all these voters. I think we both wrote about the Catalyst data that came out, which is basically like, it's much more reliable than exit polls and it comes out much later, but it is much more detailed. And one of the interesting data points was that Donald Trump narrowly won voters who didn't vote in 2020. And so these are the ones Democrats traditionally have won in previous elections, these non voters. So, like, this ongoing Political realignment. What do you think it means for New Jersey? Like, is New Jersey in play? I mean, they've had a Republican governor before in Chris Christie, but.

[Amy Walter]

Right. Blue state governors like Chris Christie or Larry Hog or Charlie Baker from back in the day in Massachusetts ran as moderates who were going to be a check on a Democratic legislature. Really. They were either seen as being particularly good on getting the state back from the brink, whatever its problems were. They weren't going to take a cultural agenda of the national party and try to push it onto this blue state. But what they would do that they like about Republicans is they would be fiscally conservative. They would sort of get things back in line. This is not what the race is sort of shaping up to be. And I think, quite frankly, I don't know how that works in this day and age with Trump. He has picked a candidate in the primary, Jack Cittarelli, who ran last time against Governor Murphy and also came close. And you could argue running as a Trump endorsed Republican in a blue state is recipe for disaster. But as you said, in a state that it's not just that it trended to Trump, it trended to him most specifically in places that you think of as traditionally Democratic urban areas, especially urban areas with significant Latino population. The one thing though, if I look at like the difference between how Biden and Trump did in 2020 and how Harris and Trump did in 24, she got 400,000 fewer votes than Biden did. Now Trump did better than he did in 2020, but not by as much. It's like let's call it 60,000 votes. Right. So it's a good argument that, all right, there were a bunch of people who, in these non battleground states, this is also what Catalyst and others, the case that they've been making is that in the states that were battlegrounds, especially in the Midwest, Democrats actually did better when they engaged with the electorate. Their voters turned out in places where they didn't engage. And New Jersey would be a prime place where people weren't paying any attention, that those voters stayed home and they didn't feel particularly invested in showing up for Harris. And so I think you're right that the question now is what constitutes the Democratic base and this is the fight that they're having right now. How much of this is, well, we just need to turn those people back out with a good candidate versus well, we actually have to go into these communities, communicate and persuade. It's no longer just about going into D plus whatever areas and hitting the turnout Button. And that, to me, is going to be really fascinating as we watch this election unfold, especially in some of these areas where the movement to Trump was dramatic between 20 and 24.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. I will just say this is like this weird, age old debate. And as somebody who like sits now across on the operative side too, sometimes, like, engages in these races and people do they sit there and they're like, well, is it about turnout or is about persuasion? I'm always like, it's both.

[Amy Walter]

It's both.

[Sarah Longwell]

Why would anybody talk about these things? Like, we don't need to do both of them at the same time.

[Amy Walter]

Right. For Democrats that look at an urban area and they say, this is a 60% Latino precinct, this is an 85% African American precinct, this just is about turning everybody out. I think that you can no longer assume that.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, because you can't assume that those people are going to vote for you by the margins that they have historically voted for you at.

[Amy Walter]

Thank you.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah.

[Amy Walter]

Yes.

[Sarah Longwell]

You know, with Donald Trump back in office, the constant churn of dispiriting news can make following politics more of a chore. Not for listeners. This podcast, though, because you guys are the ones who are willing to listen to all the voters talk. So you're og. But, you know, I always think somebody should make it easier to like, just get the download of what's happening because there's so much stuff going on. That's why the NPR Politics podcast is where I go to decode what goes on in Washington and what every decision that comes out of this town might mean for me and for you. Every day, the NPR Politics podcast team will focus on one thing and boil it down in 15 minutes or less, which is all the time I have. Think of it as your political multivitamin. I do need to take a multivitamin because they're quick and easy. That's why we take multivitamins. I love this show because the content is nice and tight and it helps me quickly brush up before I do my own four podcasts. Believe it or not, it was the first podcast I ever intended in person. My wife took me for, like a birthday present and we. I was like, oh, watching people do podcasts in real time is pretty fun. I should do something like that because live podcasts are cool. We just did a few in Chicago and Nashville and it was awesome. So listen now to the NPR Politics podcast. Only from NPR or wherever you get your podcasts. Do you ever look at political headlines and go, huh? Well, that's exactly why the NPR Politics podcast exists. We're experts not just on politics, but in making politics make sense. Every episode, we decode everything that happened in Washington and help you figure out what it all means. Give politics a chance with the NPR Politics podcast, available wherever you get your podcasts. Okay, so in this Democratic primary for governor, because we'll have to do a whole other show in Virginia, which is the other state.

[Amy Walter]

Yes.

[Sarah Longwell]

That I think Republicans sometimes are like, I don't know, we might be able to get Virginia at some point, but in this primary for governor in New Jersey, there are six candidates who are registering at least 10% in the public polls. That's a lot of people getting over 10%. And using focus groups to make predictions, especially in a six way race that's so evenly divided, is a fool's errand. We are not going to do it. So we're just going to focus our attention on two of these candidates and we're opting out of the prediction game. But it's worth noting that one candidate we're skipping, Sean Spiller, has had about $40 million spent on his behalf, largely by the New Jersey Education association, of which he is the president. But Mikey Sherrill has been really polling out front for most of the race, although not beloved by our focus groups. And then Newark Mayor Ras Baraka is the other one we heard a lot about. And you know him because he was arrested recently by going down and dealing with ice. This kind of made some national news. Most people in the focus groups have heard about it, but not everybody. And so it's interesting to think about these two because it is kind of a microcosm of your fighter. Right. Who's engaging directly in ice, and Mikey Sherrill, who's kind of like a consensus candidate who people view as somewhat establishment, which I think is kind of probably right. She was part of that 2018 class that I've loved. There was a ton of women who were like CIA agents, like Abigail Spamberger. Mikey is a helicopter pilot, and if I were voting in this race, she would be my vote. But this Baraka, now that he's gotten the attention of getting arrested, he's picking up some steam. And that was evident in the groups. And I will just note the charges against him got dropped when he got arrested. I don't necessarily want to go into the whole story because it's like actually pretty complicated what happened. But they were trying to get into one of the ICE detention facilities to take a look. They were with the congressional delegation. Congresspeople were able to get In Baraka and another woman were not. They ended up arresting the woman and then him. It's very complicated why all this happened, but it became clear in the groups that that fight and the getting arrested was a huge plus for these voters because they are putting this premium on Dems who fight. So let's listen to how they talked about Baraka and his arrest. Well, I'm more leaning towards Ross Baraka.

[Amy Walter]

He's out in the community. I mean, it's Newark right now.

[Sarah Longwell]

And I'm sure he'll do much more if he wins for governor for the residents. He's fighting for them, especially while gentrification.

[Amy Walter]

Is going on for the residents within Newark. He's fighting like the first time home buyers.

[Sarah Longwell]

You can have that program, but if.

[Amy Walter]

The property taxes are not lower, you're going into foreclosure.

[Sarah Longwell]

So he's out there trying to do this fight, all of that fake for the community.

[Amy Walter]

And I'm sure he would do much.

[Sarah Longwell]

More for New Jersey. He's speaking to people. He's not sitting behind the desk.

[C]

I live in Newark, so I know Ross Baraka a little more than the other candidates because he's worked a lot in Newark. And I think that he's a lot better than Cory Booker, who I think is a. Has been, you know, grandstanding and stuff. Like, I find him really annoying. I think Ross Baraka, you know, he talks the talk. I think he's done some good things in Newark. I think he's done as good a job in Newark as you can with such a big city and with the uneven growth in this town.

[Amy Walter]

When he was arrested for the entire.

[C]

ICE thing that happened, my school was like directly backing him and trying to get like support for his release and things like that. So I honestly, I have a good impression of him because I think he actively goes out like he. Whatever he says, I think he's going to do. So I don't know too much about him, but from that I think I got like a good impression of him. And anybody I've talked to in Newark, they like him. I was impressed by the fact that he was trying to go to the ICE facility and really trying to, with his own two eyes, what the issue was there. And unfortunately he was arrested, which is just a sign of our corrupt federal government. But that's really the only basis of my impression of him. And I think that's the kind of person that we need both in this situation and just in general, is that someone that will go to a facility, go somewhere, try to engage with whatever communities they're trying to serve and how.

[Sarah Longwell]

He got arrested, but what he was.

[Amy Walter]

Doing for the people when he did do that. And I heard that he's trying to do things first time home buyers. And I think somebody else said about like income and making everybody have like the same minimum income. He might not do everything he says he's going to do, but he's going to at least try his hardest for the people.

[Sarah Longwell]

I'm tired of all these things going through the court or us just being.

[Amy Walter]

Patient and saying that we're working on it.

[Sarah Longwell]

Like, I want to see people outside of these facilities not afraid to be arrested. I mean, really doing the hard work. So that spoke volumes to me that he didn't just send out, you know, his staff and it just sent out representatives, but that he was there and saying exactly what he was there for. You know, if you listen to this show, anybody who listens to the show and Amy, you listen to voters and this stuff, this appetite for the performative politics of fighting. I mean, I hear it every time I talk to any Democrats. So what do you think? Do you think this is what Democrats have to do now to win? Do they have to, like, get arrested or be really visibly like anti Trump? What do you think?

[Amy Walter]

I know it. And then even when they do something performative, it's not that they're not getting credit, sometimes they actually get sort of scoffed at by their base and these same voters. I can't remember how it came up about Cory Booker and his filibuster, whether the moderator brought it up or they brought it up, but on the one hand they were both excited that he did that. Like, all right, Corey, you did it. And then also said, but, you know, it was all kind of a stunt, so you kind of can't win.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, the Dems have a narrow window in which they can operate.

[Amy Walter]

It's a very, very challenging place to be. Now, look, as a governor, you have a lot more leeway into fighting back than you do as a member of Congress in the minority. Right. And I think it is this sense that they want someone to do what Donald Trump does so well, which is he goes and does the performative. His base loves it. You know, he sits in the Oval Office. He brings people in who they have to sort of kiss the ring when they come into the Oval Office. He does all these sorts of events where he has the people and the props. They are making very clear with every single event that Donald Trump does, what he stands for, who he's fighting for. And what he wants to accomplish, some of it is Democrats think is absolutely ridiculous. But when he goes to the border or when he goes stands with police officials or he does all these other things, it sends a message that he's actually not just talking about, but actually doing something. Even though all the time he spent down on the border wall. We're really not talking about the border wall anymore. Right. But he cared about it enough to spend the time there. And, you know, he had the architects around him who were building the wall, things like that. So to me, that's what it feels like. What Democrats are saying is, don't just talk about it. Show me what you want to do. And I need to see you a lot in the same way that we see Donald Trump a lot.

[Sarah Longwell]

I do think Democrats are really struggling with the cringe piece of this because they understand their voters want them to do something.

[Amy Walter]

Yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

They also. It doesn't feel natural to them to do the performative part of what Trump does. Right. They want to legislate and they want to pass things, but they have not built for themselves a sense of. And here's how I communicate this. Like, I actually think about a lot of the moderates, and we'll get to this. Like they're temperamental moderates, too. Like, they want to keep their heads down and work. The voters do kind of want that. They want somebody who's going to make. They want the housing costs to go down, but they also want you to run like someone who is going to destroy these guys. And they want it to be real. They want you to seem.

[Amy Walter]

Yeah. And to seem as angry as they feel.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. They want you to project their anger to be. They wanted to actually be somebody who can both lower prices, because that matters to you. And also that you think what's happening to this country is out of control and you're prepared to do something about it, including getting arrested. But they can sniff out when you're doing it just to placate them and not because it drives you. Voters see the difference. Totally.

[Amy Walter]

100% true. And look, this is what Trump did very well. They saw Trump do this effectively in 2024. He said, I'm going to lower your prices. I'm going to close the border. Right. At every one of his rallies, everything he talked about was about those two things. But he also said, I'm going to bring the country back. We're going to get this, this, and this. Because they took the country away from you, I'm bringing it back. Democrats want their own version of that who can chew gum, but also put through an agenda that looks like their version of what the true American agenda should be.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. And so I want to talk about Mikey Sheryl next. Right. The other candidate, because most of her ads are like, I'm a badass military person and a mom, so I'm relatable, and I can crush Trump. And for some reason, I don't know, it was not working for these particular voters. It wasn't coming off. So let's listen to how they talked about Representative Shear. All first.

[C]

She's a good candidate. However, I think that one thing that's not good for her is that she's a little more establishment. I mean, I'm so angry at the Democratic Party. So I kind of, you people that are maybe too moderate be sort of just like, oh, my God, people like, being a centrist didn't help us, so, you know, just go full throttle. So that's one of the things. But otherwise, I think she has some good policy points as well that I think are progressive, but I think maybe she's a little too chummy with the Democratic Party.

[Sarah Longwell]

I live in Bloomfield. She lives a town over in Montclair. So she is very popular in my area. When she was initially running, they would call her Montclair Mikey, kind of as a derogatory thing, like, she's out of touch. She's elitist. I think, like, on a policy level, I'd probably agree with most of her things, like, most of what she believes, but I do think she's a bit too establishment. I feel like her time being in Congress as compared to, like, Ross Baraka or Stephen Fullop, she doesn't have as many tangible accomplishments that she has ownership of that she could point to as a candidate.

[C]

Nothing that I've seen in her ads really communicates a strong enough position for me. I heard the other day she was on the Breakfast Club, and she was struggling to answer a question about accepting money from PAC that was, I believe, affiliated with SpaceX. And, you know, there was some splitting of hairs from my understanding about, like, well, no, it's not actually Elon Musk that supports it. It's a PAC that is established by the employees of SpaceX. But I don't know. I would be very reticent about voting for someone that accepted money at any point from the man who has become the symbol or one of these symbols of the destruction of the federal government and the agencies that do great work. There's also a potential insider trading story there. I think her husband Works at UBS.

[Sarah Longwell]

And made a pretty big stock trade.

[Amy Walter]

That she didn't report right away.

[Sarah Longwell]

I'd heard about that as well. But the biggest thing with Mikey that really bothers me right now is she just feels like she's from a different era.

[C]

Just this milquetoast Democrat who is afraid.

[Sarah Longwell]

To say anything interesting, doesn't want to rock the boat. I'm really concerned that Mikey Sheryl can't beat the moment here that she's going to be bulldozed under because she's not really somebody who projects fighting. She projects platitudes. To me, she was one of my two top choices. And at first I really was sticking by her. And then I was so devastated with the Kamala Harris election and how popular she was and how she was. But just because I feel very strongly black and being a woman is not going to get anything like Hillary or whatever else you want to say, we're not going to hit that glass ceiling. So I didn't want to take a vote away from someone else, but I don't think people are ready to vote.

[Amy Walter]

For a white woman who.

[Sarah Longwell]

From Montclair, New Jersey. And that's being the honest truth, no matter what policy. So I started looking at other candidates. I didn't do a ton of research, but she did take money from SpaceX. So to me, that's just, you know, I don't like that guy at all.

[C]

There was also a political themed focus.

[Amy Walter]

Group, and we actually watched her political.

[C]

Campaign ad in that focus group and.

[Amy Walter]

Most of the people in there were.

[C]

Like, her video doesn't really show a.

[Amy Walter]

Lot of what she wants to do.

[C]

It was more focused on her military experience. And I kind of agree.

[Amy Walter]

I don't really like to agree with.

[C]

Republicans on most things, but I do agree that Democrats are a little strange with that. And her specific, like, political ad, like.

[Amy Walter]

It was kind of like just centered.

[C]

Around her being a mom and her military experience. So I think someone else said that she doesn't really have the qualifications compared to some other candidates. So I think I would agree.

[Sarah Longwell]

We could not find a single voter in these focus groups who were going for Mikey Sheryl, which is weird because she.

[Amy Walter]

She's leading.

[Sarah Longwell]

The only public polling we have suggests that Sheryl is still the front runner in this race. And so I just, I don't want people to take any statistical projections away from this group. But I do think what we just heard tells us about the challenges of running a moderate type of campaign in this day and age. And so, Amy, for me, right so I'm a lapsed Republican. I like, sort of wear my bias on my sleeve. And a lot of this stuff. I want to beat MAGA Republicans, but I. I worry about the super progressives not being able to reach a lot of these crossover voters. I know for a fact you listen to independent voters, like a lot of the progressive stuff, super unpopular with the majority of voters. And so I like my moderate Dems, I like my Mikey Cheryl's, my Abigail Spanbergers. I think they're normal people. And it doesn't surprise me that she's at the front of the polling. But I was listening to these people being like, oh, because they like her policies to the extent they know about them. But again, it's this, like, she's a temperamental moderate at a moment. People want someone to smash things.

[Amy Walter]

That is exactly where we are right now, where the two parties are. The Republican Party has just completely morphed into the Donald Trump MAGA party. That's who they are. You do not win a primary unless you have either the personal Trump seal of approval or you are doing whatever you can to prove to voters that you would be in the same mold as Donald Trump Democrats, at least in, like, 1.0 Trump era. So the 2018 elections and 2020, the real concern among so many Democrats was, okay, we have to do whatever it takes to beat these candidates, Right? We gotta beat Donald Trump. And so if that means we have sort of a boring milquetoast white guy like Joe Biden, so be it. Would I rather have someone else who's more interesting and exciting and who can really rev people up? Sure. But that's not what we need to worry about. We need to worry about winning. And winning means we need somebody who's in the middle. What Democrats are looking for now is AOC mixed with somebody who can also win in a general election. Because they even admitted, some of these voters in one of the focus groups admitted that they were worried that Baraka couldn't win a general election. That is a lot of baggage, being the progressive mayor of a progressive city to be able to hold on to a state they all agreed that was trending to the right, and they were all worried about New Jersey becoming a state where Republicans could really get a foothold. But what it takes to hold onto a state like New Jersey they weren't completely bought into, which is you've got to get the candidate who can appeal beyond just the people in this room. To me, the other thing that really stuck out was the SpaceX thing. This is a woman who took money from the pack. Elon Musk did not come over to her house and give her a check. They do not care. Anything affiliated with Elon Musk is sort of a Dem.

[Sarah Longwell]

Should not take money from anything, anything.

[Amy Walter]

That he's ever touched.

[Sarah Longwell]

Don't do it.

[Amy Walter]

Ever.

[Sarah Longwell]

Oh, man.

[Amy Walter]

I mean, wow, that was remarkable. The number of people who heard that SpaceX story was also remarkable. And I know, as you said, you filtered people who were politically engaged and who were already not just voting, but many of them had already made up their minds. So this is not a representative sample of all Democrats in the state. That said it was pretty remarkable how many of them had heard something about the SpaceX thing. Yeah, it really broke through.

[Sarah Longwell]

That broke through. And then the other thing that jumped out at me there, I've been hearing this a lot, is how Democrats have convinced themselves that women and people of color might not be able to win. Which is interesting, actually. I mean, sometimes when people see establishment, I also think they mean like a white woman from an upper middle class background.

[Amy Walter]

From an upper middle class suburb.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, yeah. And so they code differently to these voters, but both parts now contain liabilities for different elements. But what do you make of this thing where Democrats have kind of talked themselves into women and people of color?

[Amy Walter]

My sense, in terms of what woman is coded for, is a certain type of suburban person, which again, if we think about that class of 2018 and who they were. Yes, they were outsiders. Yes, many of them had military backgrounds, but most of them won in suburban areas, in some cases, upscale suburban areas in this country.

[Sarah Longwell]

Right.

[Amy Walter]

That was the part of the country that had moved so dramatically away from mitt Romney from 2012 to voting for Democrats in 2016 and 2018 and beyond. So it's Orange county and it's wealthy suburban Atlanta and wealthy suburban Philly and Minneapolis and those places now become Democratic. And this maybe goes to the challenge that Democrats have with their own base, which is who are our donors? Activists engaged four out of four voters. Many of them are former Republicans who live in these overwhelmingly white suburban areas.

[Sarah Longwell]

Mikey Sheryl's district is like the archetype of what you're talking about. Yes.

[Amy Walter]

And yet who's the base of the Democratic Party? It still is working class, diverse. So being able to bring those together is such an important challenge, not just in this race, but as we think ahead to 2028. Now we're getting way ahead of ourselves.

[Sarah Longwell]

But we can't help it.

[Amy Walter]

We can't help it. And it's fundamentally you have sort of seen this rift building over the last few years between white progressives and the rest of the Democratic base, and where Democrats lost the most ground men of color, especially younger men of color. These are the folks that I think right now, the Democratic Party itself has no idea how to appeal to or talk to, and they're trying to both wrestle with that reality of how do we get our base back, but also the reality that they are angry and frustrated and they want to beat Donald Trump.

[Sarah Longwell]

They definitely want to beat Donald Trump. They do not want to lose. And so that's why I think I tagged onto the. Do people think a woman is less likely to win? Because to be clear, Mikey, Sheryl's been ahead in all the polling, but, like, she's pulling at like 30%. It's not very high.

[Amy Walter]

So I think being a woman is actually a benefit. She's the only woman in the race.

[Sarah Longwell]

Right. Which helps her stand out. Because if I were to now construct a candidate in a labor, I would be like, hey, you should have roughly moderate policies, but you should temperamentally be ready to demonstrate how aggressive you are and are willing to be in an authentic way. Is there anybody who's doing that really well?

[Amy Walter]

I would say I think Alyssa Slotkin is doing that pretty well in Michigan, where she is and has to be in a swing state like that. You know, she's not running as this person who's way far on the left ideologically. She's not out there protesting or getting arrested. But she's also somebody who sits in a marginal state politically, but who is trying to stake out a very strong future, focused, anti Trump agenda. Right. Like, there's the pushback against Trump that doesn't feel like it is cringe resistance. Yes. Maybe that's the right word.

[Sarah Longwell]

I mean, I don't know. I don't want to put words in your mouth.

[Amy Walter]

No. But there are people who are doing it really poorly. Like Gavin Newsom, right?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yes.

[Amy Walter]

Like, who are you? You were two years ago.

[Sarah Longwell]

Right.

[Amy Walter]

But I mean, I think especially with Newsome where it was like, two years ago, he was like, I'm gonna be the tip of the spear. I'm taking on Ron DeSantis. I'm gonna defend everything we do in these blue states. We are the right model for America. Forget these red states. Forget Donald Trump. And now it's actually, we should listen to what Donald Trump's allies are saying. Actually, some of these programs, not so great. Let's roll them back. Right. So it is that sense of, who are you That I think frustrates voters the most. This being inauthentic, I think is the biggest sin you can commit right now.

[Sarah Longwell]

I agree with that. And it's funny about Bernie. You know, when you ask people, they'll be like, I don't agree with all Bernie's, whatever. But, like, he's been saying the same thing for 30 years. And so, like, I know he believes it. People say this about Trump. Yeah, it's like on the tariffs or on immigration, whatever. Like, he has just kind of been the same guy. And because people are not always intensely tapped into his policy, but, like, generally his orientation toward how America should look and how America should be has been consistent. And so people feel like, yeah, that's who this guy is. You do that thing Gavin Newsom's doing right now, it's not just like, oh, I'm going to sit down with Charlie Kirk. It is that I don't know who you are now, I don't know what you stand for. And so I don't have any interest in you.

[Amy Walter]

Right.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, just real quickly, as a point of personal privilege, what about my boy Shapiro? How do you think he's doing at it?

[Amy Walter]

No, I think that's a very good one. I was watching him the other day, maybe this was soon after those Liberation Day tariffs came out, and he was down at the Port of Philadelphia with his longshoremen, talking about why this was going to hurt Philadelphia and the people who work at the port. And I thought that's actually a really smart way to talk about this, rather than just doing some sort of press release or typical sort of politician speak for, here's how terrible Trump is. He's going to destroy the economy. He went down and was very comfortable with every single person in that setting. Right. He knew all the labor guys, he knew the guys out working on the dock. He is somebody that you say, oh, well, those guys trust him. And he seems like he's comfortable down there, didn't feel awkward, like he'd never been to a place where people were working in these blue collar jobs. At the same time, he is very clear and very consistent about his faith. I think that has been a plus for him. That here's a guy who's like, I'm not going to hide that. Even as I'm being literally personally attacked and my family's being personally attacked.

[Sarah Longwell]

They tried to burn down the governor's mansion.

[Amy Walter]

They literally tried to burn my house down. And I'm standing up against that, not just for my family, but anybody else who's being attacked there. He stood up to the University of Pennsylvania back when those protests were happening on campus and a lot of Democrats were not willing to say things. He was. So I think you're right on the authenticity part. I think that is really super helpful. You know what else is really helpful in some ways is having a split legislature because it really does force you to have to pick and choose your fights.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah.

[Amy Walter]

And if you have an all Democratic legislature, they're going to want to move you all the way over here to the left all the time. Right. And you're going to have to spend most of your time shooting down crazy stuff instead of really focusing on all right, here's an agenda that is going to be the most appealing to the broadest group of people because if it's not, it's not getting through the House and the Senate getting to my desk.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, it's a good point about the split legislature. And then. Yeah, not being able to drag you into taking terrible positions.

[C]

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[Amy Walter]

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[Sarah Longwell]

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[Amy Walter]

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[Sarah Longwell]

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[Amy Walter]

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[Sarah Longwell]

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[Amy Walter]

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[Sarah Longwell]

Don't wait. Go to cittercity.com xx and get the help you need. Okay, I'm going to close on another New Jersey Democrat who's made waves in recent months. Speaking of somebody who stands for something, Cory Booker. But he's a good little Rorschach on is it performative or is it fighting like, and how do voters view it? And so I guess I was a little surprised at what a lukewarm reception he got from these voters in his home state, because I will say, done lots of focus groups and during the period in which Booker did this for not New Jersey voters, and a lot of them were pretty happy with it. So this lukewarm response was interesting to me. Let's listen. When he did the filibuster, I was like, yes, like, go, Cory, do your thing. But then he voted to confirm one of Trump's nominees. I forget for what position of his cabinet. And he does stuff like that. And it's like, whose side are you on? Like, I feel like sometimes he straddles the fence. And I do like Cory as a politician, but like I said, I think he straddles the fence sometimes.

[C]

I feel like Cory Booker, it's not the politician for the moment, he's the politician, like in the moment. So I feel like he does what's going to give him a good name at that moment. So I love the filibuster. I thought that was great. And I know politicians, there's a level of that to it. But I feel like with him more so everything he does is like feeding a narrative for his future. And I don't actually trust that he'll do anything for me. I like Booker. It's something about him just like, doesn't quite sit right. I remember joking with my wife when Bob Menendez was being indicted that someone has to tell Booker he can't run for that seat too. And I don't know, I like a lot of what he's doing, turning that speech, turning that filibuster he did into a Book kind of immediately after is.

[Sarah Longwell]

Kind of hitting me wrong a little bit because it's feeling ash grab now.

[C]

Then kind of doing it to benefit people. I think he's been good. I think he's one of the people where if you. If somebody you know in your life.

[Sarah Longwell]

Is kind of trying too hard, it comes off.

[C]

Like, that's kind of where it is. Like, I don't necessarily put him in the bucket of, like, a Crockett or an AOC or a Bernie Sanders or.

[Amy Walter]

Even, like a Tim Walls or JB.

[Sarah Longwell]

Pritzker where it feels a little more authentic.

[C]

It kind of feels like this is.

[Amy Walter]

An image he's projecting.

[C]

I feel like he's pretty insipid and just, like, grandstanding and kind of annoying, and I don't think he's progressive enough. And he's fine. It's like he's just not great. And I mean, this sounds really petty, but his lazy eye kind of freaks me out. Like, I don't know. It's completely not political. It's just the way he looks that sounds really bad, but if I was given a choice, I would not want to have Cory Booker as something more than what he is now.

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't dislike the guy. Every time you say Cory Booker, I'm like, but then what about Joaquin Jeffries? He's a little stronger. I don't know. I'm not the most positive, but I like what I see from Cory, and I think he would do right for America.

[C]

Right.

[Amy Walter]

Not terrible. Okay. But not great. I mean, the line of not of the moment, but in the moment really was something. Right? Just saying, this is a guy who sees a moment and then jumps in the spotlight. And this is why, Sarah, all this conversation that you hear from Democrats about we need to do more Joe Rogans, we need to be better on podcasts, is not the answer. Because the answer isn't that they don't go on enough podcasts or can't talk to people on YouTube. It's that it doesn't come across as genuine. And this is a very different medium that candidates now have to operate in this world of social media and TikToks and all of it. You know, you could argue that Trump does as well as he does, in part because he doesn't really care that what he says isn't always true. Right. If you could say anything at any moment, then it's much easier to navigate. But I also think what he does very well is he is himself. He doesn't show up on these shows wearing anything Other than his blue suit and red tie. Right. And he doesn't act any differently. And he's not trying to win different people over. And he's not going to try to be something that he's not. He's exactly who he is in every one of these types of interviews, Whether it is sitting down with mega anchor on a TV show or it's sitting down in some dude's basement talking on a podcast, it's the same person. And that's really hard to do. You can't just turn that switch on. You can't really convince voters you're the real deal if you're not comfortable in your own skin. And I mean, look, you and I see a million different candidates, we see a million different ads, and you can pick up immediately which of those candidates, which ones were written by the consultants and which ones really reflected the candidate. And that, to me, is the challenge. And I think what Democrats are saying in these focus groups is this, that Democrats have been running not to lose. They haven't been running to win. And they are frustrated with that. And it worked in 2018 and it worked in 2020 to just say, let's be against Trump, but don't get out there too much, because we don't want to get moderates angry. We need to win them over. We need to hold on to those voters for 2020. Oh, we need to hold on to them for 2024. Can't look like we're going too crazy. Let's just be as safe as possible. And what Democratic voters are saying is, yeah, safe hasn't really worked. Safe is what got us into this place.

[Sarah Longwell]

You can see the paralysis by analysis that is just washing over the Democrats. There was a New York Times story for someone else who does focus groups, and they're talking to Dem voters and they ask them, like, what animals the Democrats were.

[Amy Walter]

Oh, right.

[Sarah Longwell]

And they had asked Republicans. And Republicans were always like apex predators, like lions and stuff like that. And the Democrats were much weaker animals. Except then somebody said, they're like a deer in the headlights. And I thought, that is a good pull from a focus group. That's exactly right. And, you know, deer's cotton headlights get run over because you can't move. You're paralyzed. And this is true of, I think, all politicians and something that maybe the Republicans learned the lesson faster by being in more proximity to Trump and because they have different kinds of voters. And Democrats voters, I think, arrived a little later to this than Republican voters did. But the I don't want a Regular politician is a constant refrain from these voters. Like, a lot of people spend a lot of time learning how to be a politician. Like, you develop skills.

[Amy Walter]

Yes.

[Sarah Longwell]

You know when people say, what's a good politician? And I actually think what a good politician is now is you got to figure out how to be a person. You have to unlearn a lot of the ticks and tricks of being a politician, because the public is demanding your humanity. They're just demanding you be a real person that has real convictions. And so this is where the consultant class. It's not something against the consultant class, and they're very smart people. But, like, Trump ignored all the consultants. He went against all of the people who said, you can't do it this way, and he ignored the. The roadmap or whatever. They did that. At least Stefanik and, you know, my buddy Tim Miller all worked on to say, you got to be more moderate and here's how you appeal to Hispanics. And Trump just, like, threw all that stuff in the trash and said, I'm just going to talk to people the way I talk to people, warts and all. And I think they're going to like it. And it was basically right. And I don't want Democrats to go find their own Trump, but I do want them to find their person who has enough conviction that the consultants take a backseat to the candidate who's saying, this is what I believe, and I know how to talk to you about it because I care about it so much.

[Amy Walter]

Yeah, it is such a great point. The Republicans that I listened to running into the 2016 primary were saying things like, you know what? This Trump guy, I don't know if he can win a general election. I don't know that he can beat Hillary Clinton. But you know what? Mitt Romney didn't beat the Democrat. Everybody told me, you got to pick Mitt Romney because he's moderate, he can win the middle. He didn't. John McCain. You got to vote for John McCain because he can win independent voters. He didn't. What's the big risk? So what, we go with Trump, we lose? I've been doing that now for three cycles, and it feels very much where Democrats are now, which is, you keep telling me you got to vote for this type of candidate, especially younger voters. Right. They've said now for three straight elections, we don't want the establishment candidate. We want Bernie. We want Bernie or Elizabeth Warren. We don't really want Biden in 24. And every single time, that has been the choice put in front of them. Now, the one thing that's different. Sarah, you talk about this a lot. We'll see if this still holds in 2026 and 2028. But they say they want somebody's different. Not typical politician, but they also put much more emphasis on people who have experience, people who have a track record. Democrats like policy. Democrats want government to do stuff. Republicans like an outsider because they want somebody who's going to come in and like, get rid of all the stuff that government does too much of. Right. So it makes perfect sense that Republicans like the outsider businessman. Democrats like the kind of technocrat, really good policy guy. But is that still going to hold for Democrats now with this level of frustration that they have about the fact that the establishment class hasn't delivered for them?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, I think that's right. I think that in 2017, they just wanted winners and they saw they were much more willing to take anybody. And also so many of those people were running in previously Republican districts, and so they were different kinds of people. And now the Democrat finds itself with, I think, a really wonky coalition that makes it hard to pull everybody together. But you know what? We could spend hours and hours talking about the, the difficulties that Dems face. But I did think the New Jersey race is an interesting one as a microcosm of what people are struggling with right now. Amy Walter, good show. Long show. As JBL says. We've been on here because we could talk for so long. Thank you so much for joining us for the sixth time.

[Amy Walter]

Absolutely.

[Sarah Longwell]

It's the best.

[Amy Walter]

Happy to be here.

[Sarah Longwell]

And thanks to all of you for listening to another episode of the focus group podcast. Remember to rate and review us on Apple podcasts, subscribe to The Bulwark on YouTube and become Bulwark plus member at the bulwark.com we will see you all next week.