← The Focus Group Podcast
Loading summary
Transcript23 lines
- [00:00]
Sarah Longwell
Foreign Sarah Longwell here, publisher of the Bulwark. I am joined by my colleague Will Sommer. And I gotta say, just because the focus group podcast is on hiatus doesn't mean that I have stopped doing focus groups. And Will, as always, is on the beat of what the MAGA types are thinking and talking about. And we had a convergence of focus group stuff and MAGA Epstein stuff that I wanted us to come together and talk about. We recently did over here, a group of 20, 24 Trump voters who disapprove of Trump right now. And there's actually a ton of good stuff in that group. But I wanted to zero in on Epstein because I personally have been a little obsessed with this and don't understand why more people. And this is going to. I'm going to have my, like, what is the media doing? Moment. Like, even though we're the media, we're talking about it, but I am trying to understand why it is not more interesting to mainstream media types that the Trump administration, which ran in part on. We are going to uncover the deep state. We are going to put our people in there, and we're going to show you guys everything. We're going to show you where the aliens are and how many shooters there were on the grassy knoll. And we are going to uncover the Epstein files and the global pedo cabal that has been controlling our politics. And we're going to get our guy Trump in there and our guy Cash Patel in there and our girl Pam Bondi in there, and they're going to show us. And they all promised to do it. They ran on it as a matter of, here's who we are and here's what we're going to do for you. And then when they got in there, they said, this is coming, guys. We got it. It's on my desk. And then big fat nothing. I was dying to hear what voters were going to say about it, but before I tell you what the voter said about it, I want to know what Will Sommer thinks about it.
- [01:59]
Will Sommer
Yeah, I mean, this is a huge issue. I, you know, I've seen your posts about it, you know, in terms of egging Republicans on to, like, do something.
- [02:06]
Sarah Longwell
I'm losing my mind about it. Yeah.
- [02:07]
Will Sommer
Yeah. I mean, every time, you know, Matt Gaetz or whoever says, you know, what's up with this? And you're saying, you know, like, yeah, let's figure it out. I totally agree. I mean, I think it's, it is a genuinely. If we step outside of, like, the what the narrative is on the right or whatever. It is a genuinely really weird situation. And I think that is what makes it so compelling potentially, in terms of what its impact on the Trump administration will be. It's not like there was a, you know, you nodded to Pam Bondi saying at one point that the client list was on her desk and now saying there was no client list. I was speaking about the client list in the sort of the metaphorical sense. And, you know, I think it is something that has the potential to, to sort of reverberate, particularly in these kind of like, not necessarily that committed Trump corners. We've seen already some kind of like, manosphere type saying, like, hey, wait a minute, you know, what happened to this? So, you know, I think it's interesting to see what the voters say.
- [02:58]
Sarah Longwell
You know, one of the reasons I was talking about this on the next level, but I want to get your take on it. You know, there's an asymmetry in a lot of the ways the two political parties think about communication. Think about, they talk about. In fact, Democrats spend an awful lot of time talking to each other about what they should talk about instead of just talking about stuff. But I feel like, because the Epstein saga has become a fever Swamp Maga issue, Democrats, it seems like, feel like if they indulge in discussing it, that they're kind of living in the gutter. They're, they're like. It's like they're engaging with QAnon. And I am. Part of the reason I'm pushing this is because I actually don't think that's what this is. I think this is a matter of the majority of Trump's Cabinet, from the president to the vice president to the FBI director to the attorney general, all having run, like, made this a big piece of their campaign. And not just Epstein. Epstein is a particular manifestation of a bigger promise to overturn the deep state. That this, to me, seems deeply significant in terms of, like, the hours of content that this current administration spent during the Biden years creating content around this so that there was a bunch of people for whom Politics as entertainment became deeply committed to this issue. And so for them to not do something about it, or for them, people understand one of two things is happening. Either they hyped it in a way that was deeply cynical for electoral purposes and content purposes and churning up the base purposes, or they're lying now to cover something up. Like, it is one of those two things. And so I guess, I guess my question for you as somebody who really follows this, is like, why why don't Democrats jump on this in a bigger way? Why do they sort of abandon the feel? I think that. Is it because they think it's an unserious thing to engage on or what?
- [05:17]
Will Sommer
Yeah, I mean, I think that probably is it. I think they, probably, they see it as sort of a conspiracy theory thing or something that, you know, you're going to come off like a kook if you start talking about it. But look, I mean, I know when Jeffrey Epstein died that day, I was like, who are they kidding? Like, you know, oh, this just suddenly happens and we're supposed to just move on with our lives and accept the Trump administration's explanation of it, you know, and I think we've seen, as you said, you know, the comedian Andrew Schultz, who is like, became a big MAGA guy. He has this clip that's been getting a lot of attention where he says, okay, so worst case scenario here, you're covering up for the pedophile cabal. Best case scenario, you took a situation where, you know, many young girls actually were abused and, and you lied about it and turned it into a campaign issue, you know, in terms of the Trump administration. So I do think it's, and as you said, it symbolizes something bigger, which is, it's kind of like the point of the spear for the Trump administration, like, idea that there's this sinister group of people that don't have your best interests at heart and, you know, everyone from pedophiles who drink children's blood to perhaps, you know, the Davos set. And so now the tables have kind of changed here because now they're defending the rotten system. And so I think it could present an opportunity for Democrats to sort of, like I said, where Republicans really don't have a great position to take. I mean, I was watching Tim Pool is another right wing guy and his guests were saying, well, you know, probably what happened here is there are, there is a pedophile cabal and Trump realized there would be a global recession if he busted them. So we're just gonna have to live with the pedophile cabal. I mean, that is not really a tenable campaign plank.
- [06:45]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, I love this for MAGA where there's this joke actually about a conspiracy theorist has always, let's just use Epstein as the stand in for the conspiracy. But the conspiracy theorist, he's always been dug in on this conspiracy. He's looking for answers. He dies, he gets to the pearly gates and he thinks, finally, I'm going to get an answer. When he says, God, like, tell me the truth about what's happening with the Epstein list. And God says, there is no Epstein list. And the conspiracy theorist goes, this goes even deeper than I thought. Right? Like, there's an element of it where it's like, I am going to believe that this conspiracy happened deep, deep in my bones, and I will never let that go. And I will just think that there is always, like, I won't blame Trump. I'll just believe that there is something so sinister even above him, that Trump is a victim of this sinister cabal and he can't do anything about it. I actually think that's a smaller percentage than the people who were like, I don't trust government, and I think they've been covering something up. And I want Trump in there because I want Trump to burn it down. He's going to show us all of it. Because he's not a regular politician. He's not one of these guys. And this idea that Trump now is a cuck like everybody else, like, is. Isn't able to do this or isn't willing to show it to them, actually, people do find it quite offensive and almost insulting to their intelligence. And so I just, I think there is meaningful damage to be done to Trump from this. And I guess I don't think that Democrats have to be sort of tawdry or grotesque in the way that they do it. I think that they should be saying, they should be holding a press conference that says, the Attorney General of the United States has told us two conflicting pieces of information about this and the American public deserves a real answer, and we'd like to launch an investigation. I mean, just push on it, guys. Like, I'm sorry, but this is. Look, the MAGA base in some ways came to Trump for ridiculous reasons. Like, not all of them. I think lots of voters voted for him simply because they wanted things to be cheaper. And I make that case all the time. But a lot of the die hards and even like, yeah, the manosphere stuff came to him because they, they thought he was going to do something about this and for him not to. It's not. It's. It's like, deeply damaging to all of them. And also, is it possible, and maybe this is my question for you as someone who watches it, is like, is it possible there's a teachable moment in here or where people say, you know what, either there is no real deep state or, and like, Trump's been lying about this the whole time, or like, none of these people are to be trusted, like, I have been played a fool. I've been the mark, and, like, I'm out on this. Is that possible?
- [09:34]
Will Sommer
I think that's very possible. I think this is such a sort of evocative and emotional issue for a lot of people that then they start to wonder, well, maybe what else has Trump been lying to me about? I mean, when I talk to conspiracy theorists or people who have come out of it, often, it's one particular issue that they care intensely about. In the case of QAnon, it might be something that's in their career field. And when they're like, well, wait a minute, you know, that's wrong. What else? Things that I just didn't have the background knowledge to know. What else were they wrong about? You know? And I think you touched on something else in terms of the sense of, like, they think I'm an idiot. They're. They think I'm gonna fall for this obvious lie. I think that is such a powerful thing. And that's what we heard, I think was so much behind the rise of Trump was this idea that this guy made people feel like, I'm telling it like it is. I'm not pulling the wool over your ey again, in this. We've seen a lot of these comedian podcasters who went really big on Epstein. They're using that language. They must think we're idiots, this kind of stuff. And I think that kind of is a way for Democrats to tap into much more of that populist anger that Trump has previously really had the monopoly on.
- [10:35]
Sarah Longwell
All right, let's get to some of the focus group sound. We're just gonna play, you guys a quick clip of what we heard in the most recent group that we did. And Again, these are 20, 24 Trump voters who currently disapprove of the job Trump is doing. I voted for Trump three times, and right now I'm disappointed in him. Someone's got a leech on him. I don't know. I hope I'm wrong. I think maybe the deep state has something control over him, but he's not the same person.
- [11:05]
Focus Group Participant
I believe there's a client list. They talked about a client list for years and years and years. We're going to release this client list. It's coming out now. All of a sudden, they've got how many? 11 hours of video of Epstein's cell prior to him committing suicide. Suddenly that popped up. I just think, you know, it's one of those things. They're just going to, you know, sweep it under the rug. We'll mention it on social media, we'll laugh about it, call them liars. But it's not going anywhere. We're not going to see that client list and we're not going to see the real video.
- [11:40]
Sarah Longwell
All of a sudden there was a list and all of a sudden there was not. So I think it's, you know, basically fear and backlash. So that is why I don't think it will ever be released. I think it's destroyed. I think all digital copies are destroyed and I think we will never ever see the names. So that's just a little taste of what we heard. But I want to, we kind of posed the question to the group about the two competing truths. Like is it, is it, is it that Trump is covering something up or is it they were hyping this thing up in order to like kind of blow smoke and get people all hyped about it. And people's sort of knee jerk reaction was that Trump is part of the COVID up now. Right. Like they didn't think like a couple people thought it was bluster in order to, to get people to vote for them, but the vast majority of the group was like, nope, Trump's covering it up too because there's something at stake also. But in the group people see. Has somebody said Beyonce is on the list? Because yeah, that seems to be a bridge too far for people. They do not think Beyonce would be on this list.
- [12:43]
Will Sommer
Yeah, I mean I think there's, there's almost like, like traditional Epstein list thoughts which are like maybe Trump, Bill Clinton, stuff like that. And then there is like mega where it really gets into like QAnon territory where you're talking. I believe somebody maybe I misheard it, like mentioned Jamie Kennedy from the Jamie Kennedy Experiment. Beyonce. I mean people like, like, like a much more like Hollywood centric Tom Han. But yeah, it is interesting. I think it is. Again, this is an issue that is so much simpler in many ways than Trump is cutting Medicaid or Kristi Noem has this inane way of running fema, stuff like that that I think in many ways is more serious but has a hard way for breaking in for people. And they often say, well, you know, Trump, let's. I'm just going to assume Trump knows best on this or the media is lying to me. I mean, I think this is such a black and white issue is, you know, certainly as far as they see it, is Trump covering up for the pedophile cabal? Slash, is he so incompetent? The pedophile cabal is getting away with it. And I think that is, is cutting through for a lot of people. I thought that first audio where the woman said, you know, someone has gotten to him. He's a changed man in very bad way since November. I thought was, was really compelling.
- [13:46]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. And this goes so in the, in the larger group, I'll say when it comes to why people are disappointed in Trump or why these voters who voted for him now disapprove of him, it's funny, they don't all have the same reasons. Like, the reasons are disparate and diverse. And for some people, and I've heard this a lot in groups, there's a lot of frustration with Donald Trump for just not making the economy better. Like, it's not that they're mad specifically about tariffs or anything else. They're just like, he said he was going to lower costs. My costs are the same or they're worse. It's not getting better. And I'm upset about that. That is actually probably the biggest reason that I hear for people's disappointment with Trump. I would say then there's sort of a, a backlash from people who think he is. Some of the things that he is doing, whether it is Iran and Israel, like, his, his. They said he was going to be, he's going to be, he said he was going to be a peace president. He said he was going to be, we're going to get off forever wars, but we're still doing all this stuff. And we bombed Iran. That, that older woman mentioned Iran. And one of the reasons that, that she was upset about, upset about it. And then there's on immigration. Then there's like, people who are like, this is too much. This isn't what I voted for. I thought he was going to go after criminals, but he's going after all these people. And one of the things we're really seeing right now in polling is almost a flip from where people were a year ago, back when Biden was there and people thought we weren't doing nearly enough on immigration. And now people think we're overdoing it on immigration and there's been this, this huge swing. So, like, the disappointment in Trump goes a lot of different ways. I will say it's not necessarily making people want to vote for Democrats or at least not. It's not making them say, boy, I wish I had voted for Kamala Harris. I think we've asked that question in a lot of the Trump disappointed groups. And I do think we've maybe had a person say they would Vote for Kamala. Like, we haven't had a lot of people say they would switch. However, I do think we've had, we've had a lot of people say they just wish they hadn't voted. And this is something that I think for people who are like, why would Democrats pay attention to Epstein? It's not going to make them vote for Democrats. They're going to vote for Democrats because they want to see the Epstein finalists. I'm like, you're missing the point, guys. Donald Trump brought so many new people into the political process around issues that are actually not traditional policy issues. In fact, they find traditional policy issues boring, and they're kind of in it for the kayfabe of it all or for the. The idea that, like, oh, no, Trump is going to take on these elites that have been running our government. The uniparty. He's going to burn it down. Like, for the manosphere types, low info and young people, like, there's a ton of this. And for that, if they just get disillusioned and say that MAGA stuff was all bs, I'm out. That is meaningful. Like, that's a meaningful dent to make in the new Republican political coalition. Or am I smoking something? What do you think?
- [16:38]
Will Sommer
No, I think you're right on. I mean, I think this is a very, you know, as we talk about it, it's a very, like, provocative issue that, you know, I, I think obviously there, there's a lot of similarities and overlap between Epstein and QAnon. And I think both of these things, they have this sense that, like, it matters, that you, you personally care about it and like, you are, you know, in the more extreme way they would call themselves, like, they're like soldiers. Like soldiers by posting online. And so I think it really, like, you know, it's the worst thing that can, you know, children being abused. And so I, I think it, it, it, it pulls in a lot of people who don't really care about tariffs or tax cuts or what have you. And look, I mean, I think from the Democrats perspective, there are, like, legitimate government issues going on here. I mean, there is the attorney general all of a sudden comes out and says, oh, no, case closed. And then I think one thing we haven't talked about is the, how emotional the reaction is to Trump telling people basically, shut up. Like that clip of him saying, I can't believe you're talking about Epstein 36 hours later. Get over it. And that really, I think, you know, there are a lot of people who are not, like, pulling up the document cloud and reading the memo. But I think this clip of Trump just saying, move on, get over it, I think really, I think offended people's intelligence.
- [17:45]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, there's so just like a couple other components to this. So one of them is Elon. Right. Like there's. And this. Which gets to maybe the second component, which is the way that Trump was able to get around the fact that there's all this evidence that he was pals with Epstein, that he was on Epstein's plane, that he was, you know, that he wished just Layne Maxwell well after she was. And there's even, like, new reporting saying he was considering pardoning her. Like, the way that they made the Epstein issue like a liability for Democrats is by promising the transparency about it. He was able. Like, if you asked a MAGA person, well, why don't you think that Donald Trump could be implicated in this? They're like, well, he wouldn't be saying he's going to show us the list if he was on it. Right. His fba, his, you know, Cash Patel and all these people around. It wouldn't be saying that they were going to show this to us if it implicated Republicans or people. They are. And they also thought, because they often don't think of Trump as a Republican. Republican, they were like, he doesn't care, man. He doesn't care who's on the list. He's going to. He's going to tear them all down. Now, to me, it is difficult to say, so this guy's an adjudicated sexual assaulter. He has talked about Epstein very warm, warmly. He's talked about Epstein's affectionate for very young girls, warmly. Donald Trump himself has had a lot of expressions of this kind of talk over. So, like, to me, the way in which Trump and all of these MAGA types were able to make Epstein an asset as opposed to a liability is a wild testament to what they're able to do. But the reason they were able to do it is they went on offense and basically were like, no, we're the ones who are going to show this to you. And so I think that the liability for them now is, oh, wait, they're not gonna show it to us. Well, then maybe Trump, maybe there is something to this. And I can't tell you how much you hear about the pedophile. I mean, you know, this people, I think, might be surprised how deep QAnon and also, like the early days, like the Comet pizza shooting, like all of that stuff was, because people said Hillary Clinton and the Clintons were running a global pedophilia like ring and that Hollywood is implicated. Whatever Trump was the guy who was gonna show it to all this. This is a look, and I'm not saying everybody you run into in the grocery store thinks this or even the majority of Americans, but it is a real feature of the fever swamp. And I think that Democrats could do a lot of damage by being like, pretty weird. Trump is not releasing this now, isn't it?
- [20:28]
Will Sommer
Yeah, I mean, I think it's really an untapped issue. I think, as you said, I mean, one thing I have been coming back to a lot is when people talk about, particularly like new Trump voters, when they talk about, well, Trump exposed the corruption or when they use kind of corruption broadly, not always, but often that is sort of like a socially sanctioned way to talk about Epstein or kind of QAnon cabal type stuff. Because then when you kind of probe and say, well, what do you mean by the corruption? In my experience, often they say, well, like the pedophiles, you know, and so that has kind of become viewed as.
- [20:59]
Sarah Longwell
This broad taking planes from Qatar.
- [21:02]
Will Sommer
Yes, exactly. I mean, they're not talking about these like what we might think of as like a teapot dome type corruption case. I mean, they're talking about like a much deeper rooted, you know, much more sinister kind of thing. And look, I mean, as you said, I mean, really, so much of right wing media now still really like throbs around this idea. I mean, so much of the idea of like the anti trans kids stuff was like this idea that some, that there's a force out to corrupt children or, you know, Candace Owens now is going on about Macron's wife being trans. And you might say, well, like, what's the larger issue there? Well, she thinks it's part of a pedophile cabal. And so this is like what right wing media is really blasting out to people. And you know, all this talk about should Democrats seize on this. Really the most negative reaction over the past week has been from Republicans who, who realize, and I think Republican right wing media figures who realize this is one thing they really have to break with Trump on. They can't just say, get over it for the most part because, you know, their audiences demand it. And so I think it's interesting that Republicans, I think, are seeing correctly that this is a huge electoral liability, even if Democrats are not.
- [22:05]
Sarah Longwell
Was there anything else that jumped out in the sound that you heard from the focus group?
- [22:08]
Will Sommer
One thing that struck me was people saying this idea that it's sort of assumed, and we touched on this a little earlier, that like, yes, there is a cabal that Trump is aware of and is perhaps either in league with or sort of a tacit, you know, non aggression background, you know, that I think is a hard thing for people to swallow.
- [22:25]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. I think that for some of these folks who are deep on Epstein, it's hard. You're gonna have a hard time telling them there's not an elite global cabal. They're much more likely to just be like, Trump is being controlled by the elite global cabal. But if that's what they choose to believe, fine, as long as it makes them. I mean, not fine. It's not great for so many people to be this steeped in conspiracies. But if it makes them lose faith in Daddy Trump, in King Trump, I'm for it. Because someone is lying. Somebody is lying. I don't. I actually am deeply unconspiratorial. I tend to think things are very much Occam's Razor, like, whatever the most obvious explanations, but like, they told us two competing things and so demand that they answer it. Donald Trump's biggest funder, his number one consigliere for the first five months, who he put in charge of all of our computer systems and everything, says he's on the Epstein list. Okay, so I'm not saying that that means it's true. I'm not saying there's an Epstein list. I'm saying that the richest man in the world and the President United States got into this back and forth and it feels like someone should follow up on that and figure out if the richest man in the world who controls all these government contracts is lying or the President United States is lying. These aren't reality television characters. It's not tawdry. It is like, it's the. It's. I mean, look, is it tawdry? Well, yeah, but I'm also sorry that it is. That is the state of our politics. So what we are in control of is finding the truth. And we should. Okay, that's Will Sommer. Thank you for coming on and letting me get a little focus group stuff out of my system and also for talking to me about Epstein, because I'm not. Not everybody is. The board seems to have the same appetite for this as I do. But I also think that comes from me having listened like you to lots and lots of MAGA voters for many years. And so I think that perhaps we understand, in a way that maybe not everybody does, that this is a real liability in that world.
- [24:38]
Will Sommer
Yeah. Well, it's always interesting to hear what voters think. And. And as you said, I mean, I think it's gonna be a huge question whether Trump can execute this pivot. I think the sign right. Right now suggests he's not really doing it.
- [24:48]
Sarah Longwell
Well, he'll be able to do it if everybody forgets and moves on. And so, you know, some people, perhaps the Democrats, have control over whether or not that's true. So get on it, guys. Get on it, guys. All right. Thanks to all of you for listening. Go and like us. Subscribe to us. Go become a Bulwark plus member. Go listen to the secret pod that JBL and I did. We went deep on this together as well. We'll see you guys soon. Bye.