The Focus Group Podcast: Episode S5 Ep3 - "At Least He's Doing Something" with Sam Stein

Release Date: February 1, 2025

Overview

In the fifth season's third episode of The Focus Group Podcast, host Sarah Longwell engages in a comprehensive discussion with Sam Stein, Managing Editor of The Bulwark, to dissect the initial actions and public perceptions surrounding Donald Trump's second term as President. Drawing from extensive focus group data collected across the United States, Longwell and Stein explore voter sentiments, executive orders, and the broader implications of Trump's policies in his first ten days back in office.

Trump's First Week: Actions and Reactions

The episode kicks off with an analysis of Trump's tumultuous first week. Stein describes Trump's actions as "both outrageous and expected" (02:15), highlighting a mix of familiar strategies and unprecedented disruptions. Key actions included:

• January 6th Pardons: Trump issued pardons for several defendants involved in the January 6th Capitol riot, a move that sparked significant debate.

• Federal Assistance Freeze: A controversial freeze on federal aid programs aimed at overhauling government expenditures and operations.

• Executive Orders: Multiple executive orders were signed, signaling rapid shifts in policy areas such as immigration and Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI).

Stein notes that Trump's approach has led to an "incredibly disruptive, deliberately chaotic and extremely active first 10 days" (02:15), setting the tone for his administration's aggressive agenda.

Voter Sentiments and Focus Group Insights

Longwell and Stein delve into the findings from recent focus groups, emphasizing that a notable shift has occurred among certain voter demographics:

• Biden to Trump Voters: Many participants transitioned from supporting Democratic candidates like Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden to embracing Trump. This group is characterized by individuals who are not ideological purists but have grown more comfortable with Trump's leadership style.

• Moderate and Independent Voters: These voters express appreciation for Trump's visible actions, such as increased enforcement of immigration laws and the federal funding freeze, even if they harbor reservations about specific policies.

A standout observation from Stein: "People are giving him a lot of credit for, like, he's doing something" (08:31), underscoring the value these voters place on visible presidential activity over nuanced policy evaluations.

Executive Orders: DEI, Immigration, and Other Policies

A significant portion of the conversation centers on the implications of Trump's executive orders:

1. Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI):

   • Rollback of DEI Programs: Trump's order to dismantle DEI initiatives within the government has stirred considerable debate. Focus group participants expressed a desire to be hired based on merit rather than diversity quotas. Notable quote from a participant: "I wanna be hired because I deserve the job. I wanna earn, you know, everything that I get" (26:27).

   • Public Reception: While some voters appreciate the emphasis on meritocracy, others are concerned about the broader societal impacts, such as reduced inclusivity in critical sectors like firefighting and law enforcement.

2. Immigration Enforcement:

   • Increased ICE Presence: The focus groups revealed strong support for stricter immigration enforcement, with participants noting visible ICE trucks in their communities as a sign of Trump taking decisive action.

   • Impact on Daily Lives: Voters reported personal and professional disruptions due to the federal funding freeze, leading to anxiety and uncertainty in sectors dependent on federal aid.

3. Recognition of Biological Sex in Documents:

   • Executive Order on Sex Recognition: Trump mandated that government documents recognize only male and female sexes, excluding gender identity considerations. This move sparked mixed reactions, with some appreciating the clarity and others concerned about inclusivity.

Stein emphasizes the potential long-term consequences of these orders: "If we're just ripping things up... when people can't access Medicaid, when veterans are getting shut off from treatment... then shit hits the road" (20:23).

Approval Ratings and Potential Backlash

Currently, Trump's approval rating hovers just above 50%, a notable increase compared to his previous tenure where he never surpassed 42%. However, Stein warns of "overreach and eventual backlash" (20:23). While early actions have garnered support from his base, the aggressive restructuring of federal programs may lead to widespread negative repercussions as the effects become more tangible.

Key points include:

• Economic and Social Disruptions: The federal funding freeze threatens essential services and safety nets, potentially alienating working-class voters who rely on these programs.

• Public Stability vs. Administrative Chaos: While Trump is praised for taking action, the ensuing instability could erode his broader support base if essential services are severely impacted.

Pardons of January 6th Defendants

One of the most contentious actions taken by Trump was the pardon of individuals involved in the January 6th Capitol riot. Focus group reactions were nuanced:

• General Sentiment: While polls indicate that such pardons are broadly unpopular, focus group participants showed a lack of intense emotional investment in the issue. Stein observes, "It's almost like a holiday, I think, for some liberals and Democrats. Like, January 6th, like, it's just that day" (46:31).

• Rationalization and Closure: Many voters view the pardons as closure to a past event, expressing indifference towards the pardoned individuals' actions. This detachment suggests that, despite the controversial nature of the pardons, they may not significantly impact Trump's current support.

Longwell adds, "They were like, it was bad. And they kind of were trying to rationalize how they could sort of say it was bad. But I'm not, like, motivated or moved by it" (52:50).

Closing Thoughts

The episode concludes with reflections on the dynamic political landscape shaped by Trump's aggressive policy maneuvers and the complex voter sentiments they evoke. Stein highlights the importance of understanding the depth and nuances of voter opinions beyond surface-level polling data. As Trump continues to implement sweeping changes, the potential for both solidifying his base and triggering substantial backlash remains a pivotal theme.

Notable Quotes:

• "Both outrageous and expected." – Sam Stein (02:15)

• "People are giving him a lot of credit for, like, he's doing something." – Sam Stein (08:31)

• "If we're just ripping things up... when people can't access Medicaid, when veterans are getting shut off from treatment, then shit hits the road." – Sam Stein (20:23)

• "I wanna be hired because I deserve the job. I wanna earn, you know, everything that I get." – Focus Group Participant (26:27)

• "It was bad. And they kind of were trying to rationalize how they could sort of say it was bad. But I'm not, like, motivated or moved by it." – Sam Stein (52:50)

Conclusion

In this episode of The Focus Group Podcast, Sarah Longwell and Sam Stein provide an insightful exploration of Donald Trump's initial actions in his second term and the complex voter reactions they elicit. By leveraging detailed focus group data, they paint a nuanced picture of a politically divided America grappling with rapid policy changes and their far-reaching implications.