S5 Ep8: Free World 'Family Meeting' (with Tommy Vietor)

Summary

Episode Summary: Free World 'Family Meeting' with Tommy Vietor

Podcast: The Focus Group Podcast
Host: Sarah Longwell, Publisher of The Bulwark
Guest: Tommy Vietor, Co-host of Pod Save America and Host of Pod Save the World
Release Date: March 8, 2025
Episode: S5 Ep8: Free World 'Family Meeting'

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Introduction

In this episode of The Focus Group Podcast, Sarah Longwell engages in a deep conversation with Tommy Vietor about the evolving landscape of American foreign policy under "Trump 2.0" and the prevailing sentiments among Republican voters. The discussion centers around a particularly contentious exchange in the Oval Office between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky, shedding light on how this interaction reflects broader shifts within the Republican Party and voter attitudes toward international aid, specifically to Ukraine.

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The Oval Office Exchange: A Catalyst for Change

The episode opens with Sarah Longwell expressing her discomfort over witnessing President Zelensky being scolded by President Trump and Vice President Pence in the Oval Office. She recounts the scene where Trump lectures Zelensky about not expressing enough gratitude, while simultaneously showing a subtle alignment with Putin, which she found "extremely stomach churning" (00:00).

Tommy Vietor echoes this sentiment, describing the moment as "genuinely shocking" and highlighting the unexpected nature of Trump scolding a once-ally (02:34). He emphasizes the contradiction of siding against Ukraine while maintaining a veneer of solidarity with Russia.

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Shift in Republican Foreign Policy

Longwell observes a significant shift in the GOP's foreign policy stance since Trump's rise. Historically, Republicans valued soft power and strong alliances with Democratic allies. However, under Trump's influence, there's an increasing hostility toward these allies and a puzzling leniency towards adversaries like Russia. She notes, "[...] Republicans today are increasingly hostile to those allies while displaying a strange new openness to treating our enemies gently" (00:00).

Vietor adds that this shift represents a logical continuation of the GOP's "long slide on foreign policy," pointing out that the party's traditional support for international alliances has been eroded.

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Focus Groups Reveal Nuanced Republican Views

The crux of the episode delves into insights from focus groups comprising Republican voters who support Trump yet express varying degrees of support for U.S. aid to Ukraine. These voters describe themselves as "pro-Ukraine," but their support is nuanced and often tempered by concerns over government spending and priorities.

Key Quotes:

• Unknown Participant (06:34): "There's sort of a human morality aspect where I think we need to be keeping others safe. But at the same time, the amounts that the prior administration were giving to Ukraine need to be lowered drastically."

• Unknown Participant (08:15): "You have to support Ukraine because... Ukraine got invaded. So the US had to help them because we're not real close with Russia."

• Unknown Participant (10:06): "Russia came into their country and they didn't do anything wrong. Ukraine, they got invaded."

Despite their pro-Ukraine stance, many participants believe that U.S. financial aid should be more targeted, limiting support to military aid and humanitarian efforts while cutting funding for what they perceive as unnecessary expenditures like "parades, pride month, surgeries" (07:16).

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America First: Prioritizing National Interests

A recurring theme among the focus group participants is the "America First" ideology. Voters express a desire to prioritize domestic issues without entirely abandoning international responsibilities.

Notable Insights:

• Unknown Participant (30:04): "By making America first, it gonna make us stronger... becoming more independent from a lot of the other countries that we depend on."

• Unknown Participant (31:13): "I fully support the idea of America first. But where I don't think that extends to is America only. I do not think that it is in America's interest to completely distance itself from foreign relations..."

These sentiments reflect a balancing act where voters want the U.S. to remain engaged globally but without the extensive financial commitments that have characterized past administrations.

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Challenges for Democrats: Addressing Voter Concerns

Longwell and Vietor discuss the implications of these findings for the Democratic Party. They highlight the need for Democrats to articulate a clear and relatable foreign policy that resonates with voters' priorities without alienating them.

Key Points:

• Misalignment in Messaging: Democrats have struggled to convey a coherent endgame for U.S. involvement in Ukraine, leading to voter confusion and waning support (06:10).

• Scarcity Mindset: The focus on domestic financial constraints—like the U.S. national debt and government spending—has undermined Democrats' ability to advocate for sustained foreign aid (14:14).

• Potential for Political Realignment: There's an opportunity for Democrats to differentiate themselves by emphasizing both national priorities and the importance of maintaining global alliances to prevent adversaries from gaining unchecked influence (34:03).

Vietor suggests that Democrats need to pivot towards a narrative that not only promotes peace but also ensures that any peace agreement does not come at the expense of strategic interests, thereby preventing future conflicts (36:05).

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Public Perception and the Future of U.S. Foreign Policy

The conversation underscores a critical vulnerability in the current political climate: while Republican voters express skepticism about the extent of U.S. involvement abroad, they remain deeply concerned about the consequences of inaction, particularly regarding Russia's ambitions.

Highlighted Concerns:

• Fear of Escalation: Participants fear that a failure to support Ukraine adequately could embolden Russia to pursue further territorial expansion, potentially triggering a larger global conflict (39:32).

• Balancing Aid and Accountability: Voters are torn between supporting Ukraine's sovereignty and ensuring that U.S. aid is effectively utilized, without being squandered on non-essential projects (41:54).

Tommy Vietor's Insights:

Vietor emphasizes the need for "prioritizing peace" as a central tenet of U.S. foreign policy. He advocates for peace deals that do not concede too much to adversaries like Russia, ensuring that Ukraine remains secure and autonomous (36:05). He also points out that effective messaging should highlight the consequences of losing to Russia to reinforce the importance of continued support (37:33).

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Conclusion: Navigating a Complex Political Landscape

As the episode wraps up, both Longwell and Vietor recognize the intricate challenges Democrats face in redefining foreign policy in a way that aligns with voters' "America First" sentiments while maintaining global leadership. They suggest that Democratic strategies should involve clear, consistent messaging that underscores the importance of strategic alliances and the long-term benefits of supporting international partners like Ukraine.

Final Thoughts:

• Need for Clear Messaging: Democrats must articulate a compelling vision that balances domestic priorities with essential foreign engagements to prevent adversaries from exploiting perceived weaknesses.

• Engaging Voters Beyond Partisanship: By addressing genuine concerns about government spending and demonstrating the tangible benefits of international aid, Democrats can potentially bridge the gap with moderate Republican voters.

• Strategic Diplomacy: Emphasizing diplomacy and strategic alliances can help ensure that U.S. foreign policy remains effective without overextending financially, fostering both national strength and global stability.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Sarah Longwell (00:00): "For a party that not long ago believed in the importance of soft power and standing with our Democratic allies, Republicans today are increasingly hostile to those allies while displaying a strange new openness to treating our enemies gently."

• Tommy Vietor (02:34): "It was genuinely shocking... I was hearing from people I hadn't heard from in years being like, are you seeing this? What the hell is happening?"

• Unknown Participant (07:45): "If we continue to provide the financial for that, then it's never going to end."

• Tommy Vietor (10:06): "Russia came into their country and they didn't do anything wrong. Ukraine, they got invaded."

• Unknown Participant (30:04): "By making America first, it gonna make us stronger... becoming more independent from a lot of the other countries that we depend on."

• Sarah Longwell (24:03): "Trump was playing it for laughs. In the State of the Union."

• Tommy Vietor (36:05): "They're going to have to concede something in any situation like that."

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This episode of The Focus Group Podcast offers a comprehensive examination of the shifting dynamics within the Republican Party and the nuanced perspectives of its voters regarding U.S. foreign policy. Through insightful dialogue between Sarah Longwell and Tommy Vietor, listeners gain a deeper understanding of the challenges Democrats face in addressing these evolving attitudes and the potential pathways forward for American foreign policy.

Transcript

[Sarah Longwell]

Foreign hello, everyone, and welcome to the Focus Group podcast. I'm Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark, and this week we're talking about America's role in the world under Trump 2.0 and what voters think about it. Now, for me, watching Ukrainian President Zelensky sit in the Oval Office with President Trump and Vice President Vance and get lectured about not saying thank you enough while these guys sort of simultaneously expressed a sort of gentle solidarity with Putin, was extremely stomach churning. But I have listened to enough Trump voters over the years in focus groups express kind of a dwindling support for Ukraine to know that my gut isn't a reliable indicator of how many Republicans would view that acrimonious exchange. And look, where we are now. Is a logical extension of a long slide on foreign policy for the GOP since Trump came around. For a party that not long ago believed in the importance of soft power and standing with our Democratic allies, Republicans today are increasingly hostile to those allies while displaying a strange new openness to treating our enemies gently. So today we're gonna focus on Republicans who supported Trump, voted for Trump, but also say they somewhat or very strongly support US Aid to Ukraine. Because I wanted to explore this kind of old familiar strain of Republicans who typically like to support our Democratic allies and figure out what they're thinking. So my guest today is my fellow Kenyan alum, Tommy Vitor, co host of Pod Save America and host of Pod Save the World. Tommy, what's up?

[Tommy Vitor]

Great to be here. Great to have you in la.

[Sarah Longwell]

I know I am here on a half personal, half professional visit, but I got to drop by the studios and in fact, normally I say thanks for coming on the show, but instead, thanks for letting me use your studio.

[Tommy Vitor]

Honestly, it was great to see these groups. Cause it brought me down to earth, but also just great to see you.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, it's great to see you too, guys. We were kids together, me and Tommy. We knew each other in our 20s. People don't always know that. Even though I have a sign in my office that somebody made me because I keep hiring Kenyan kids.

[Tommy Vitor]

Oh, you did?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. So I have a thing that says Little Gambier is what they call our, like our little village in Ohi. That's right, that's right. You'd feel at home there. All right, so why don't you just to level set, tell me what went through your mind when you saw that Oval Office. I don't wanna call it a kerfuffle because that's not significant enough for what it was, but that exchange, it was stunning.

[Tommy Vitor]

It was genuinely shocking. After this many years of Trump, it's hard to be shocked by something he does, but to watch him unload on Zelensky like that, this man who you could just see in his face three years of exhaustion and the hell of this war, like, in his eyes, and just to be scolding him and screaming at him in the Oval Office and knowing all the context that came before that of calling him a dictator, suggesting there should be regime change in Ukraine. I mean, it shocked me, saying that.

[Sarah Longwell]

Ukraine was the aggressor. The aggressor, yeah.

[Tommy Vitor]

Black is white, up is down. It was stunning. And I imagine, like you, it broke through to normies in my life in a way that most Trump things do not. I was hearing from people I hadn't heard from in years being like, are you seeing this? What the hell is happening? Why is he doing this? So it was a big news event.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. And I think if you don't live in the right wing media ecosystem that has been trashing Zelensky for the last couple of years, and even if they're not directly trashing Zelensky, they're kind of doing an America first version of why are we sending all this money to Ukraine? That could be used here, which really gets through to voters on the right. But I think for people who aren't there who just think, Zelensky good guy, Putin, bad guy, why are we yelling at the good guy? And actually, sometimes I can't remember exactly when Trump did everything, but was it in that meeting that he was saying, well, Putin's been with me through the whole Russia.

[Unknown]

Right.

[Sarah Longwell]

He did that in that same context. Right.

[Tommy Vitor]

So bizarre. He went on this rant about the Mueller probe and talked about how basically he and Putin had had to endure this together, like it had created some sort of, like, solidarity between the two of them. But yeah, I mean, generally on. On Ukraine, I mean, foreign policy is usually complicated. Rarely is it black and white. In this case, it's like, nope, there's a good guy and a bad guy. The Russians invaded. Zelensky showed unbelievable heroism. And you're right. I mean, if your audience isn't sort of steeped in the right wing media ecosystem, you probably don't know that, like, lots of MAGA media types accuse him of being a drug addict and corruption and all these awful things. So it was. It was pretty st. Yeah, there's a.

[Sarah Longwell]

Lot of sort of money laundering and it's coming home now in the way that Elon talks about doge and USAID like this idea that everything is laundered as opposed to, I don't know, used for a purpose. And it is creating a sense among people that everything we do is sort of wasteful or corrupt or bad. And so there's no faith in anything anymore that what we might be doing has a purpose or a value or is right for more reasons. Because I do think for me, the thing that's hard to get your arms around in that meeting because it's bizarre to think him siding with Putin and siding against Zelensky, but there's a moral reason why we side with good guys and it is underpinned by a strategic reason and a reason that is self interested. But we have a value set. We've always had a value set. It's one of the things that has elevated us as a unique country. And it was like watching that value set crumble.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah. I think watching the last couple of months of the Trump administration From, you know, J.D. vance's trip to Munich and the speech and the direct negotiations with Russia has not just upended the Biden Ukraine foreign policy. It has really upended 75 years of US foreign policy generally. Like we are now siding with Russia at the UN on votes on red and North Korea. Yeah. We are backing away from, from our European allies in siding with Putin and having direct talks about the future of Ukraine with his goons in Saudi Arabia. It is some head spinning stuff.

[Sarah Longwell]

So as longtime listeners of this show can attest, people's stated preferences can come with a lot of caveats. And that includes why the voters we talked to this week describe themselves as, quote, unquote, pro Ukraine. Let's listen to why they said they were pro Ukraine and then some of the nuance that goes with that. Cause I would say even though they said they were pro Ukraine, it maybe wasn't like the full throated endorsement we thought it might be.

[Unknown]

Right.

There's sort of a human morality aspect where I think we need to be keeping others safe. But at the same time, the amounts that the prior administration were giving to Ukraine need to be lowered drastically. We should not be funding parades, pride month at surgeries. I don't know the fully inclusive list of some of these things that we've been funding, but we should solely be funding arms and safety schooling for children. The bucks should stop there. I think for the immediate term, it's not the sort of thing you could just flip the switch off because I do think there would be the loss of life even just from people starving.

[Sarah Longwell]

And whatnot we've been helping them, what, since the 90s.

[Unknown]

So pulling out funding altogether, that's going to be devastating for them, you know, so we do need to continue, I think, to help. But there's a lot of things that.

[Sarah Longwell]

Can be cut, like he said, with surgeries, gay pride, you know, these things that, that we're helping with, that's unnecessary. And if we continue to provide the.

[Unknown]

Financial for that, then it's never going to end.

[Sarah Longwell]

You know, they're going to just keep.

[Unknown]

Asking for more with their hand out.

I think as America, everyone, you know, looks to our nation as a helper, especially if someone's at war. I do have an issue with how much has been sent over there. I mean, I don't know how much it takes to run a war. I also know we've sent our weapons and we've sent our tanks there. And I did see an interview with Zelensky where he said he, I mean, it was like over $170 billion that we've sent to them of our money. And he said he doesn't even know where half of it went.

You have to support Ukraine because like I said, Russia came into their country and they didn't do anything wrong. Ukraine, they got invaded. So the US had to help them because we're not real close with Russia. But I think the smart thing to do right now is just to everybody come together and just try to get a peace so people aren't dying, you know, like their kids aren't out there dying, you know, and there's people every day dying out there in Russia and Ukraine. So I think it's better for our country to still help them if they need help. But I mean, got to stop the fighting and just get a piece, because if not, like I said, it will be World War Three and then Russia will start shooting off nuclear bombs and then it's going to be really bad.

[Sarah Longwell]

From a humanitarian aspect, I think we should support them to a point. But I don't think continue throwing billions.

[Tommy Vitor]

Of dollars is the answer. And at least Trump is trying to find some solution.

[Unknown]

I had some high hopes for the.

[Sarah Longwell]

Mineral split, but I guess if I had to answer that question, if that meant getting an agreement for peace, I would say, yes, give it up.

[Unknown]

Because both sides are going to have to concede something in any situation like that.

I'm not saying that we shouldn't help them. I do agree that we should help them, but not as much as we have and not now, especially after we found out that they are using the Money that was given to them for.

[Sarah Longwell]

Different stupid stuff, you know, like fashion shows and whatever.

[Unknown]

Like, do they really need the money or do they not need the money? I don't want to sound, like, really mean, but we've helped them a lot and they are just not using it how it was meant to be used. So I think cutting them off like cold turkey wouldn't be as bad as a lot of people might think, because I don't think their president is really as innocent as he portrays himself to be.

I am definitely in. In support of some level, obviously on a moral and ethical level. Russia invaded Ukraine. They are at full blame and responsibility for that. There's no question with that. And we have a responsibility as the leaders of the free world to support countries that are being sovereignly invaded. And I, I'm kind of agnostic on the level of financial support. I kind of mirror some of the things that have been said of. I don't know how much it costs to run a war. I don't know how much it reasonably takes to deter something like that. But I think in looking at it from a negotiation standpoint, for Russia to be happy, to stop and finally reach that ceasefire, there has to be some level of gain that they would get, or else they would just keep going until they achieved what they wanted to get.

[Tommy Vitor]

Okay, Yeah, a lot there.

[Sarah Longwell]

So you and I were texting about this a little bit and you were kind of like, whoa, brutal, brutal focus groups. And I was like, it's even worse when, you know, we were screening for people that we thought, like, we were kind of trying to find the pro Ukraine strain. And really what we heard there is, yeah, we should help them, but only to a point. So tell me how you sort of received that.

[Tommy Vitor]

Well, I think the first takeaway from hearing that collection of people was you hear about the parades, the pride, the surgery. Like, there is clearly this disinformation that's out there in sort of right wing media spaces. And you guys, I think, very smartly asked people where they had watched the Zelensky Trump meeting happen, how they'd heard about it. It was a lot of fox news or YouTube or kind of like right wing podcasters like Daily Wire, Candace. Yeah, yeah. And so I'm not really sure what they're referencing. Like, a lot of right wing disinformation gets to me and I internalize it and kind of like mentally fact check it, but, you know, most of the weapons that are getting sent to Ukraine are either going through the State Department's military financing programs or just direct shipments from the Pentagon to the Ukrainians. And then the money the US Is spending on those weapons is to replenish our own stockpile. So the US Taxpayer dollars are going to Raytheon or like name your weapons manufacturer in the US So I'm truly kind of at a loss for where this is coming from. It felt like it was swirling together with like Doge cuts. But I don't know if you had more information on this, I mean, because.

[Sarah Longwell]

I do unfortunately tend to marinate a little bit in the right wing media ecosystem for my job. For them it is, we have problems here. And they say forever wars. They often have price tags. Now, I don't think they're correct price tags, but people have them and it is all. The pro Trump media ecosystem has really gone hard at Zelensky, saying he is corrupt, they are laundering money. You know, it's so easy to go grab old clips of Marco Rubio. And by old, I mean three years ago, 2022. Yeah, right where he is. Putin is a thug. Soft power matters. We do these things for a reason. And that used to be an article of faith among Republicans. USAID is a perfectly popular, maybe not each individual thing that somebody could point to, but the idea of expressing ourselves through soft power around the world so that we don't create a vacuum for China or Russia was just what Republicans thought of. But the right wing media ecosystem has been, and Trump too has been. This idea that we send money abroad is bad. And Trump does this thing where he creates a scarcity mindset. It's such a different way of looking at America when you think of it as a place that is poor, taking advantage of we're suckers, the pie is shrinking. When you create a scarcity mentality among the voters, which is what they have, and this is what all the right wing media ecosystem sort of pushes. That scarcity then turns to people being like, well, you can't spend this over here because we need it over here. And that's why Doge and all this stuff, it all taps into that same vein of we are spending money on things I don't want us to be spending money on and it should be coming. Basically what they mean is to me.

[Tommy Vitor]

In some way, yeah, I think almost everyone articulated some version of that, like, look, we like them, but we're spending too, too much. But then what kind of amped it up was the suggestion that we're spending it on ridiculous things like pride events, parades, transgender surgeries or something. Right. Just sort of like things that might seem ridiculous on its face to you and I, but I think if you're in the right wing media ecosystem, you hear it a lot. I also would say one thing that is consistent, I think, in every focus group is like, yeah, Trump's an asshole, but he's an asshole for us. This is how he gets things done. Like, he's our guy. This is what he does.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. We had done one group beforehand, and we actually had been thinking to ourselves, like, well, we screened for people who said they were pro Ukraine, but they didn't seem very pro Ukraine. Maybe there was something about our screening. So we did another one after the Oval Office meeting, and it really didn't make that much difference. But let's do this. Let's play the set after the Oval Office meeting. Let's listen.

[Unknown]

The thing was, Zelensky, I think it was just Trump being Trump, I think, just showing who's the boss, I guess.

I hate that it played out in front of the whole world like that. I do think that, like someone had said earlier, both sides are going to have to, you know, swallow their pride a little bit. I just hate that it played out in front of the world like that.

I didn't love that whole exchange with Zelensky. I think it could have been done differently or even that specific discussion had behind closed doors, but I think they were both kind of playing a game of chess and, you know, who's going to be strong, and this is what I need, and this is what we're going to give you. And, you know, it's kind of like a family meeting I didn't really want to sit in on, but I don't think anything had to be said about him wearing a suit or not. I don't think that matters, but to some people, it does. You know, some people look at that as respect.

You know, I thought it started out really good, but I think an attack took place that for people who are running countries that should have been behind closed doors, you know, transparency is great, but I think he was shamed on national television, and I don't think you should do that to any leader, because I'm not a fan of Putin at all. They let him in the White House, and I was very angry over that. I mean, it's documented what this man's done. So it just seems that Trump puts him here and Zelensky here. And I think the way that Trump does business is whatever comes out, he's not filtered. And it's difficult to wrap your head around it. How is this going to work. But when he said you were one step away from World War iii, that is a valid statement. So that's where I'm at with it.

I am supportive of Ukraine. I am supportive of us as well. What went down was uncalled for, and it shouldn't have been on national television, period. It should be behind closed doors between them. And I feel that there needs to be peace. Absolutely. And something needs to be signed, and there needs to be peace, because there's too many people are dying, there's children are dying, there's structures being demolished that have been around for centuries. And because, you know, Ukraine is an old, older country, I can understand why.

Trump and the vice president are very annoyed. They just want them to be on the same page and mediate. But I feel like the president of Ukraine is skeptical because he's already seen that it didn't work the first time, probably wants some kind of reassurance that if I say yes, is it going to transpire again? And he wants, I think, accountability. But it's like, Trump is right. Like, it's going to be World War 3, like, and it's like, we're going to be a part of that, and we're trying to avoid all this. And it's, like, very stressful for everybody. And it's like, here is the United States. Respectfully, you know, we're just trying to assist you. Like, and we really honestly didn't have to get involved, but we are getting involved because that's just how we are as people. But I just feel like I don't like the way it was handled. I feel like, in a way, it was a little bullying, and I think it should have went off the air at that point. Like, maybe we should go to it, like, commercial or something. I just didn't like it. And he couldn't just say that he was gonna do it, because then he still has to face his own country. Like, he's a president that was voted in. So if he goes back to his country, like, we don't know the consequences in his country, how those people are gonna take it if he comes back making deals, like, and it's not good for his people.

[Sarah Longwell]

So, on one hand, people did not like the way Trump was treating Zelensky. On the other hand, I've just listened to voters for so long, kind of being like, well, I don't like how he tweets, but, like, he's basically right. And so, like, more than anything, it was just like, well, they should have done that behind Closed doors.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yep. The family meeting I didn't want to sit in on is one I wrote down and bolded. I also noticed, like Trump's claim that there will be World War 3 if this war goes on is taken as an article of faith.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yes.

[Tommy Vitor]

And I think that Democrats have completely lost the argument that it not only matters to end the war, but how we end the war. But by the way, these are not unsophisticated voters, like, a lot of them share the concern that Putin will attack another country if he is unchecked. There's a woman who called Putin a modern day Hitler, but I think they like the America first approach pretty much unequivocally. But there's a couple of voters who are like, well, we can't withdraw from the world. So in that, there's a little bit of hope that, you know, anti Trump folks like us might have an avenue to convince them. But you're right. Like, this scarcity argument is so powerful. And it reminded me of being a Democrat in 2004 when John Kerry used to say, we're building firehouses in Iraq, but we're not building them back home. And it worked.

[Sarah Longwell]

Oh, I'm so glad you brought this up, because to me, this is what's crazy about listening to Republican voters now is I'm just like, you and I were the same age 9, 11, happened when we were in college. And so you and I would have been very much on opposite sides, I presume. I was kind of a Bush person. I was consuming the Weekly Standard and everything else. And so to me, Republicans today sound a lot like Democrats circa 2006. And I think a lot about the shifting coalitions and about the political realignment. We talk about it a lot. I can see it happening in real time. But what do you make of the way that so many of these voters have really internalized what used to be much more associated with kind of a liberal talking point?

[Tommy Vitor]

Good question. I mean, I think a lot of it, big, big, big picture, boils down to faith in government and faith in institutions. And I think you hear that play out in the conversation about Ukraine and our capacity to do good things overseas. And frankly, that's understandable after Iraq and Afghanistan. But you heard it in the State of the Union speech. And Trump's ability to read through 10 minutes worth of silly examples of government spending just undercuts your faith in everything the US Government is doing. And that's like the challenge Democrats have always had is, we believe in government, we think it helps people, we think we should tax you to fund it. And there's always been a limited sort of small government strain of the Republican Party that's like, let's drown it in a bathtub. And here's all the ways these idiot libs are wasting your money. And you heard that here, like parades in Kiev or whatever they're talking about.

[Sarah Longwell]

All right, focus group listeners, I have a podcast wreck for you. In wild times like these, do you ever just want to break the rules? I know I like a good broken rule, especially for stupid ones, fake ones. Well, that's exactly what friend of the bulwark Glenn Galich gets into on his show, Break Fake Rules. Here, Glenn and guests dig into the self imposed rules that hold us back, particularly in philanthropy, to uncover which rules we should commit to breaking together for a better society. Just break fake rules in a cool way, not like in an elon way. You'll even hear from me and other insiders in politics, government, philanthropy, media, and more who are refusing to to live by these fake rules. If you've ever wondered why we live by certain rules or dreamed of what becomes possible when we do things a little bit differently, tune in to Break Fake Rules. New episodes drop monthly wherever you get your podcasts. That part in the State of the Union, I was sitting there being like, oh, I mean, I just came up through a conservative movement. Any junior researcher, part of your job was to go through and find stupid ways in which the government was wasting money.

[Tommy Vitor]

This was John McCain's whole thing.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. And now I sit there being like, yes, the government does. And when Trump was doing it, he was playing it for laughs. In the State of the Union.

[Tommy Vitor]

Oh, yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

So Trump has no problem just being like, how do you even pronounce this country? Is this even a real place?

[Tommy Vitor]

What is Lesotho? I don't know that you're like, shit, man. It's like a couple million people live there.

[Sarah Longwell]

But I mean, he wins people over. I had a lot of people texting me, being like, do you think that was effective? Yes, elements of it are effective. And I think you might wanna say, look at this moron, just saying he doesn't even know where anything is in the world. But you know what? They had lots of other things that they could point to, and that has just really seeped in with all of these voters. And your point about the faith in government? I do think it used to be the Democrats who were sort of the insurgents, saying these guys control the world with their big dollars and you should be skeptical of them and you should push back against them. And like the right says that now. And it goes back to me saying, I believe those things about the government being bloated and there are things we should cut and maybe some of this stuff doesn't make sense and you should always be looking at it because you should care about how American taxpayer dollars are spent. There's also the part of me that's like, but don't throw it all out, guys. Like this soft power made sense and every Republican would tell you it makes sense.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah, I think you're right in the broader faith in government point. I mean, Trump just ran hard against Washington. It was during the swamp. It was, these people are idiots. Look at all the disasters they've created in the last 20 years. And the Democrats were like, here's Hillary Clinton, someone you've known about for 30 or 40 years. Maybe don't like but like embodies all that is Washington. And I think we forgot as a party that Bill Clinton ran against Washington from Arkansas. Barack Obama ran against Washington. Right. Specifically Hillary Clinton in, you know, like kind of the tired traditional Washington thinking and the Iraq war. And we've just lost our fucking edge when it comes to being insurgents and outsiders. And maybe this like you and I were lamenting our pathetic state of the Democratic Party before we started recording, like, maybe this time in the wilderness will help us recapture some of that. It's a hope of mine, but it's going to take some work.

[Sarah Longwell]

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[Tommy Vitor]

So, full disclosure, I know Alyssa a little bit. A lot of my friends are friends with her. She worked in the NSC for Bush and Obama, worked at the Pentagon, worked at the CIA. She's like a national security pro. People I know who worked with her literally didn't know her politics. Like, a lot of them sort of assumed she was a Republican. She's sort of like a badass over at the Pentagon, so just like assume she's de facto Republican. So when she ran for a Democrat for the House first, people were surprised, I think. I thought she delivered it really well. She made a lot of points that I'm sure pulled really well. I think that was hard. And we talked about this in the pod we did right after just reacting to it was like it was hard to go from watching Trump, who looks and feels so different, to watching such a traditional speech that kind of like covered all the bases. And like paint by numbers is condescending, but it hit all the points you would expect a Democrat to hit. And like she did no harm. And there's a lot of harm done in these. So to reaction by the opposition party speeches like Katie Britt and Bobby Jindal and Marco Rubio with the water. Right. So she absolutely, like didn't harm herself in any way. But there was a part of me that was like, what's a version of this speech that just looks and feels totally different and feels like a Trump era version? I don't know exactly what it is. My pitch focused totally on Doge and see if you can like drive a narrative that way and get people to tweet about it and post it on TikTok and whatnot. But it's just so hard to break through compared To Trump.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. So part of the reason I asked about Alyssa again, who I like very much, and that speech was, like, straight on target for me, but I watched it with the same reaction. We were also doing a post game over at the Bulwark, and I was like, you know, the problem is it's just missing the kick. Substantively. It's all right there. And frankly, she actually did something new, I thought that desperately needs to happen, which is she was talking about democracy and the preservation of it without just saying democracy, democracy, democracy. Because if you're gonna tell. This is like, my thing that I say all the time, but if you're gonna tell a better story about democracy, you need to tell a better story about America. And so she's telling it through an American lens, which I thought was, like, the right way to do it.

[Tommy Vitor]

I agree with that.

[Sarah Longwell]

But Democrats are gonna have to figure out how to be more lively and interesting and. And, like, she's great, and she was doing, I think, an effective job for 10 years ago. And I don't want her to get up there and scream and yell and.

[Tommy Vitor]

Tell people that's not her.

[Sarah Longwell]

It's like, it's a way of connecting with people. And like Trump, he immediately understood how to cut off the fact that Democrats were gonna sit there in stone silence and not give him a thing by saying, these guys aren't gonna give me a thing. I could cure cancer and they wouldn't do it. And you know what? People are gonna have to figure out how to loosen up. Okay, so now I'm derailing us.

[Tommy Vitor]

No, no, no. But you're right, though. They hate the tweets, they hate the bullying, but they like that he gives it to you straight. It feels authentic, even when he's lying. And that's just, like, the hardest thing. He's always lying.

[Sarah Longwell]

So obviously, we've discussed this. There's been this major move in the GOP toward a more America first slash kind of isolationist foreign policy ethos. And we hear that from elected Republicans as well as many of the Biden to Trump voters, who I've been really focused on in the focus groups who swung the last election. So let's listen to these pro Ukraine Trump voters. We asked them, like, what does America first mean to you? Let's listen to what they said.

[Unknown]

I think by making America first, it gonna make us stronger. And, yes, you can still, with your left hand, keep track of China and Russia and say, yeah, hi, how you doing? We're friends, but I think by making us first and making Us stronger and taking care of our own and getting manufacturing back here, becoming more independent from a lot of the other countries that we depend on. Stuff from in the long run, I think is going to make us able to help fight off China, help fight off Russia and all of the things that are coming into the country.

I live in America, of course, I'm a fan of America first always. But I think that we need to support other places as well. Because if we don't, then other countries can invade other countries and then it's going to keep going and going and going and non stop while we sit here pretty in a little America box and just have everything on our little corner on a little box or circle, whatever you want to call it.

I fully support the idea of America first. But where I don't think that extends to is America only. I do not think that it is in America's interest to completely distance itself from foreign relations, from international conflicts, from all of that stuff. Because domestic politics and international politics are inseparably combined. They affect each other. What is happening over in Russia and Ukraine affects us. What's happening in Europe affects us. And what's happening in America affects the rest of the world. And I think that the idea that America's values and direction is, is worthy to be discussed and brought to the rest of the world.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, I just feel like we need to take care of the people here at home more. I mean, you got all these homeless people living under bridges and tents and everything else all over. You got veterans coming home and they cannot afford to make a make a living and stuff. And then Biden, you know, was talking about forgiving the student loans. I mean they, I think the veterans should come way before any of that because they're fighting for freedom over a student loan.

[Unknown]

Yes, I love America First. I never looked at it like only America. So when he's saying America first, but not only, I completely agree with that. It should never be us in our own little snow globe where we're not helping or interacting with other countries and diplomats around the world. But it's so difficult to see what's happening here in our own country. And then especially now with Doge and coming out with how much money has literally gone to nothing. And that's our money. That's money that we're working for. Our taxes going to stuff that does not matter or, or we don't even know it's in the air or they're buying islands somewhere with that money when we have people sleeping on our streets defecating on our streets, hooked on drugs, selling their bodies because they want to be able to get food on the table for their kids. That is a real part of our society.

[Sarah Longwell]

So what strikes me about all of these voters, and sort of voters in general on the Trump side is it's not that they've abandoned everything that people don't think like, I don't want any immigrants to come here, or I don't want to do anything to help anybody in the world, or I don't want the government to do anything. Exactly. It's that they feel like Trump is doing a better job of prioritizing. And America first is, in its essence, about how one prioritizes. And so they understand that we're part of a world order and that we're not retreating entirely from the world. They just really want America to always be front and center in the prioritization. And I gotta say, I really understand that. Like, I do not think that is an irrational way for people to order their political priorities. And so how did Democrats combat that?

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah, I think you're exactly right. I mean, there was one guy in the middle who was like, bonafide globalist Steve Bannon would have kicked him right out of the group.

[Sarah Longwell]

That guy was a Dispatch reader, I will tell you. That was his media source. And I just like to congratulate the Dispatch on their Trump voter readers.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah, he was quite smart. But you're right. I mean, you heard a lot of people talking about how there's homeless people living under bridges and we have veterans who aren't being taken care of. And it's this scarcity agenda that you're talking about. And I agree with you, it's a completely reasonable concern when you're reading about a $35 trillion debt. And I think where Democrats really failed on Ukraine was early on, it was a moral fight, it was a righteous fight, it was an urgent fight. And then three years later, it's not remotely clear what the Biden policy endgame was, besides, you know, arming the Ukrainians in perpetuity. And Trump comes in and he bolts on this other hobby horse he has about the Europeans not paying enough to fund their own departments of defense and to contribute to NATO. And it works seamlessly. And I think the big failure of, you know, Democratic messaging and, frankly, policy was either not getting to an end game early enough or not explaining to people what it was, and frankly, not having diplomacy front and center as part of the conversation. Because for better, for worse, look, I don't want to disrespect Zelensky in any way, but it did at times feel like Zelensky was pushing Biden around. And the sort of stated policy was nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine, which was, at times, de facto letting them dictate the terms of the conversation. And if you step back and think about what Zelenskyy wanted in that meeting, it was a security guarantee, which is, like, not that different from joining NATO and guaranteeing that we'll go to war with Russia if something else happens. So I can understand Trump's hesitancy, as I did Biden's.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, then what should we do? What should our foreign policy be, Tommy?

[Tommy Vitor]

Look, I do think prioritizing peace has to be front and center of this war. I think we should be in favor of a peace deal, but we're gonna have to make the case that any peace deal is not acceptable. It can't be entirely on Putin's terms.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's interesting, just because I did ask the groups, because they say peace, right? You hear this a lot from the voters. They want peace. But we asked, is peace at any cost? If the Ukrainians have to give up their land, is that an okay condition? And I wasn't sure if people were gonna understand the question or have an opinion on it, but they did, and mostly didn't think they should have to give up land.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah, they were sophisticated. One was like, putin is Hitler. One other guy kept saying, russia is a big, scary bear. That was the metaphor he kept repeating. And I like that. I thought that was appropriate and made me feel like you could sell to. Even, like, these are hardcore Trump fans. You could sell to them that what is required as part of the peace agreement is some sort of international security guarantee to protect Ukraine in case the Russians break a ceasefire, some sort of ongoing arming and equipping of their military that allows them to be at the front, literally, like, fighting the war itself and not allowing Russia to dictate the terms, such that not only do they get to keep 20% of Ukrainian territory that they're occupying, but they also don't get to tell Zelensky that he has to go and that his military will be capped at, you know, 75,000 soldiers going forward. Right. Like, those are the terms that the Russians are going to fight for.

[Sarah Longwell]

And this is where Trump has a win sitting in front of him. And you've just made a great point. I think all he has to do is not want to side with Russia actively because his voters, Trump's voters, think he's a tough guy. And Think the way that he engages with Putin is a negotiating tactic. Right. They don't read it the way you and I do, which is this guy is weirdly enamored by this dictator and is letting Putin jerk him around cuz he wants to because he admires him. And that part really freaks us out. But like, the voters are not there because they think all the Russia stuff was a scam. They don't think Trump is a, like a Russian patsy, but they don't like Russia still. Like that is just still a thing. And look, public opinion, especially on the right for Zelensky, has dropped precipitously, but they still don't like Putin. And so Trump has a win there where he can look like a tough guy. He just has to want to stand up to Putin on it.

[Tommy Vitor]

And I'm not sure he will just a tiny bit. And also, these voters loved the minerals deal.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, they did.

[Tommy Vitor]

The minerals deal kind of came out of nowhere. For those who don't know, initially it sounded like we were basically extorting the Ukrainians and demanding half a trillion dollars worth of rare earth minerals profits until they paid us back. And now it seems like just some sort of joint exploration or mining agreement. That win, though, would go a long way for Trump, even if it feels a little bit like vaporware at the moment or kind of made up.

[Sarah Longwell]

Okay, I'm gonna close us out with the next block of sound, which is something we've been talking about, which is like actually the relative sophistication of these groups on foreign policy. I mean, sophistication and kind of in like an extremely normie way. Like, we asked voters what would happen if Russia won. What if Russia won? And they gave roughly the same answers that a bunch of experts in D.C. would about rewarding aggression and encouraging America's enemies. Like, there's a lot of gimmicks. He'll take a mile. So while many of the other answers here are not what people in D.C. would like, these were interesting. Take a listen.

[Unknown]

Putin is a modern day's Hitler in my opinion, and I think that if you give him an inch, he will take a mile. And if Ukraine loses, he's gonna feel like, hey, Trump is in the office, but I won. So hey, let's see who else I can go after. Let's see what else I can do. And that is going to be like a domino effect. And I think we are the strongest country. We do need to help smaller countries like Ukraine due to the fact that if we don't, then Putin is going to win. And if he wins, everyone loses. I understand why Trump wants to play nice with everyone, because we're in America, we're the strongest country and we don't want to piss off anybody. We don't want to piss up Putin. I mean, Ukraine is more of a smaller country. We shouldn't worry too much about them. But if we piss up Putin, then China gets together with Putin and then it's just, it's going to get a lot worse.

And once he takes a little, he's going to take more and say, well, America didn't do anything last time. What are they going to do now? They already sent all their resources. How much more will they send? Who's more important? What countries might not be as important to them, or I'm going to push towards them and see what, what they're going to do. And so I think everyone who's spoken is correct. I think it's best that America see it through Ukraine.

Russia wants to expand the Soviet Union to be what it used to be. And I feel that Ukraine is just one step forward towards further exploration by Russia.

It kind of would empower Russia to feel like they could take any country over, especially in the Eastern European region. There becomes the aspect of them touching NATO countries, which by obligation, then the uk, the us, Germany, everyone gets involved. So I think you really want a situation where you're avoiding that. So that's why we've sort of overfunded them per se to date. But I think now that it's been disclosed what certain funds were leveraged for, I think it becomes paramount that they're proving that all of these funds are putting towards defending themselves as opposed to personal well being.

[Sarah Longwell]

Do you think there's an opportunity for Democrats to split Republicans on this? Like for them to say, look, we're the party that stands up to Vladimir Putin because these voters do not want the outcome of this. They want to spend less money, but they do not want the outcome to be that Russia wins.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah, we don't like losing.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's right.

[Tommy Vitor]

Just as a country, I think if I were Susie Wiles or someone in the White House listening to this focus group, I would come away thinking there is a political risk that could come from a bad deal, especially if it leaves to future Russian military venturism in Eastern Europe. Now, the caveat to that is, I think at one point in one of the groups, the moderator asks, was this a top 10 voting issue for you? And I don't think anyone put their hands up.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's right.

[Tommy Vitor]

But I do think that's kind of a distinct question, like, do you care about Ukraine? Is a little bit different than do you care about losing a war to Russia? And I think we heard that these people are sophisticated and they actually don't want to lose to Russia.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. I also listened to these groups and thought, man, there is a vulnerability here. And I do think Democrats have to start expressing some sense of, like, who we are as a contrast to this.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yes.

[Sarah Longwell]

The Trump administration really runs the risk of just being too willing to give Putin what he wants. And I think that Trump would belatedly realize that actually voters don't want that. As much as I was a little surprised not to get more pro Ukraine sentiment when we were specifically kind of looking for it in the screen, and that depressed me. I thought at the end of the day, that was the upside.

[Tommy Vitor]

Yeah. I mean, maybe the messaging tweak is getting away from the, like, kind of 2017 era, you're Putin's puppet kind of shtick, and just being like, hey, man, you're getting worked in this deal. Like, you're. We're losing.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah.

[Tommy Vitor]

You know, and maybe that is more convincing to these people who think that all the other Russia stuff was just made up by the media.

[Sarah Longwell]

I think that you're getting worked in this deal is right, because you heard these voters. They still think of Trump as the.

[Tommy Vitor]

Great dealmaker, and everything he does, they fold under that rubric. So it's like, he's a jerk. He sends a mean tweet. That's just a negotiating position. Oh, he's talking to Putin. He seems a little chummy. That's just how he operates. He's got a. He's got to get him on side. So, yeah, I think it's got to be like a we won, we lost dynamic.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's right. Okay. Tommy Vitor, thank you so much for having me at your studio.

[Tommy Vitor]

This was very fun.

[Sarah Longwell]

It was very fun. And thanks to all of you for listening to another episode of the focus group podcast. We'll be back next week, but in the meantime, review us on Apple Podcasts, subscribe to the Bulwark on YouTube, and become a Bulwark plus member at the bulwark.com. we will see you next week.

[Tommy Vitor]

I'm a Bulwark plus member.

[Sarah Longwell]

Nice, man.

[Tommy Vitor]

It's great value. Do it.