← The Focus Group Podcast
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Be combined with any other discount, contract and or special pricing exclusions. More terms and restrictions apply. Details@lowe's.com Terms subject to change Foreign and Welcome to the Focus Group Podcast. I'm Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark, and this week we are back and I am pumped about it. I have been doing focus groups all summer and I've been dying to talk to you guys about them. I did have to take a little hiatus on the show this summer because I got some other projects I'm working on, and this show is quite a big lift, actually. But I'm super excited to catch you guys up on what we've been hearing and talk through all of it. Here's a sampling of just some of the things that happened over the summer that we haven't fully addressed on this show. Trump bombed Iran. Maybe that feels like a million years ago, but that happened over the summer. He seized control of D.C. that's happening right now. The National Guard is here, taking over our D.C. police force. He's given everybody tariff whiplash, which my producer thinks we should call rifflash, which I don't think works. And he's still refusing to release the Epstein files. But overall, for a lot of swing voters, Donald Trump's presidency is going this is the clinical term meh m e h and that doesn't necessarily mean bad yet, but it's sort of like going toward bad. Trump settled into an equilibrium about 8 to 10 points underwater, according to Nate Silver's polling average. He's doing a bit better than that on immigration, where he's about two to three points underwater, and a lot worse on on a bunch of economic measures, where he's about 12 to 24 points underwater. So today I want to bring the voter sentiments together with a guest who knows this president's brain better than most. Ashley Parker, staff writer at the Atlantic. Hey Ashley, how you doing?
- [02:16]
C
Hey, I'm good. How are you?
- [02:18]
A
Good. I don't think that you realize how exciting this is for our listeners because we're back. Like the people who are focus group junkies like I am, they're like jonesing for these hits of focus groups. And I think they're gonna love the fact that you are our first guest this season because you have been writing a lot about Trump's first term. Now that you're over at the Atlantic, you left the Washington Post, and a few months ago, you and Michael Scherer.
- [02:45]
C
Sher.
- [02:45]
A
Okay, great. Published a lengthy feature on Trump's four years out of power. And on his first 100 days back, you wrote that, and I quote, his time in the political wilderness is crucial to understanding the way he's exercising power now. What did you mean then and how has that changed now that we're like 227 days in?
- [03:08]
C
Sure. I think what we meant then, and I can't even remember if we had this line in the piece or not, but was this idea that it was like Jurassic park, where the velociraptors had learned how to operate the door handles, and it was that when he was in the political wilderness, he and his team actually learned a lot of lessons. People forget, because it was actually relatively such a short period of time, but people forget after January 6th, sort of how left for dead Trump was politically. There was this sense that, like, forget about running for president again and winning, there was this sense that he was going to be a Persona non grata in the Republican Party. Right. And everyone is just done with him and no one wanted to talk to him. And that actually only really lasted for about six weeks, maybe even less. Kevin McCarthy goes down. That's the first step to a rehab process. But in the process of clawing his way back from the political wilderness, he became emboldened. He also had been president once he understood the levers of power better. A lot of his team sat there during those four years and just plotted what they would do when they came back, not just in terms of who they would take revenge on, but what policies they wanted to do and how they would get them done. Right. What obscure immigration laws Stephen Miller could use that he hadn't been quite creative about the first time. And so you just saw this totally different Trump 2.0. And I think what's different now is, I guess at the time we were writing that, I didn't even realize how right we were. We knew, sort of it's a Trump surrounded by true loyalists now. Right. You have people who are willing to do his bidding. Someone told us in his first term, Trump would ask for something, and you would have people who would tell him all the reasons he couldn't do it. Right. All the reasons they would resign if he did do it, who would leak to the media about what a bad idea it is this time. It's True MAGA loyalists. And someone told us for this article, look, if the President asked for something twice, we do it. That's our rule. They said, you know, it has to be twice, because, look, he does say some crazy things, but if he asked for it twice, it means he wants to do it. And so all of these things that seem benign, firing everyone at the Kennedy center, these were things. The first time he would have been told, well, you can't do that. The board serves a certain chair and there'll be a public outcry. And so I guess I just didn't realize sort of how emboldened and how willing to crash through kind of the last remaining institutional barricades and guardrails he would be.
- [05:36]
A
Yeah, I use that phrase a lot. The Velociraptors have learned how to turn the doorknobs, because I think that's exactly right. So I want to get into the sound here. I don't want to. I want to give people what they came for. All the folks you're going to hear on this show are Biden to Trump voters. We've been doing a lot of different groups, but for this one, we're going to stick with our swing voters. Because I think a lot of times what people want to know is Trump's doing all this stuff. Are people who were maybe kind of on the fence about voting for him, do they regret it? Are they like, oh, my gosh, what have I done? How could I have voted for this? Because I do think that satisfies a certain need people have. They want to hear people say, I can't believe what he's doing. We got it wrong. And I'm sorry, you're going to get maybe a little bit of that. So we're bucketing our first two bits of sound into what do voters think that what he's doing is bad and then what's good? Because the fact is, there are things that people think Trump is doing that are good also. We do this in a lot of groups where we ask people to give Trump a letter grade. So when you hear people say, I'm a C or I'm a D, that's why they're doing it. So let's listen to what people are thinking is bad right now. I think where the C comes from, because it would have been much higher. Elon Musk, Epstein files. You can't make these big promises and bring people like Elon Musk in and then throw them out, especially when they don't have clearance. You can't say Things about the Epstein files to get people to vote for you and then I'll do anything with them, which at the end of the day, who cares? The Epstein files don't affect my paycheck or my groceries. But there's too much wishy washy. I wish there was more of a this how I'm going to be or this is how I'm going to be and just stick with that versus that wishy washy nature of let's change the tariffs, let's change the health care, let's change. You know who I'm talking to today? Because that's one of the issues I had with the Biden presidency was we looked like a joke in America. I haven't seen any sort of massive changes, just like some polarizing or really extreme things going on, like deportations or I know the big beautiful bill is, has a lot of big changes to.
- [07:45]
C
Healthcare and the economy and different programs.
- [07:50]
A
Like Medicare, Medicaid, different food subsidized programs and then the tariffs and those extreme taxes on imported goods.
- [08:00]
C
So I feel like there's just a.
- [08:01]
A
Lot of extremes going on and I.
- [08:03]
C
Have yet to see the benefits of, of them.
- [08:06]
A
So that's why I gave him a.
- [08:07]
C
D. Right now every day I keep.
- [08:09]
B
Hearing something with the ICE and they're like getting somebody like, very like local now. God, now it's like five minutes away from me where they like capture people like every day. He's like, buddy, buddy with like Putin and like you're not sure, like, what side he's on with them. I thought he was supposed to be in the middle and trying to work things together. I don't know. He's very confusing. And then with the tariffs, first they were going to be 25%, now they're going to be 15%. It just like changes all the time, like what's going to happen with the cost of the tariffs. So I don't know what's going on with that either. I don't think like anybody does. That's the problem. Sometimes he can be crazy. I don't want someone crazy leading me onto the field. I know he's a tough guy, but you never know if he could do something irrational, we could all get blown up, nuclear bomb or something. So I give him a see. He kept saying he was the president of peace. He kept giving Obama digs. And here he is getting us into a war. And I'm lucky. My son just got in the Navy two months ago, if that would have happened now my son was in there that Would have been crazy.
- [09:21]
A
Having Elon Musk come in and cut the services and the people's jobs that he did the way that he did to, quote, save money and then come in with this big, huge bill, beautiful.
- [09:34]
C
Bill that's going to put us into.
- [09:36]
A
Trillions of dollars worth of debt is.
- [09:37]
C
Sort of ironic in and of itself.
- [09:40]
B
I had a lot of optimism, like, I'm coming back into the office, but it looks like everything he's done is basically just to benefit himself and his family. All the deals he's doing in the Middle east, like I said, the unnecessary tariffs, and then we're going to hold off on the tariffs and then dismantling all of the agencies, like I said, Department of Education, I think just, you know, he's about to fire people in the federal government losing their jobs left and right. These are people who've been tenured and, you know, they have a critical part in helping the government run. It's just like everything now is just destruction and chaos. I think the jet that he was supposed to get and he said, oh, they offered it to me for free, and then it came back. So it's like everything he's doing is basically enriching his family. I'm not saying, hey, you're not supposed to, you know, make money, but I thought we were supposed to be helping the middle class here. Like I said, just passed the better business bill. And of course we see all the cuts that are going to happen across the board for, you know, people with Medicaid and Social Security and things of that nature. And it's just like middle class is what sustains the country. If you have no middle class, you have no country.
- [10:44]
A
So, Ashley, I think it's really instructive how much of this is just like a grab bag of stuff. Like there wasn't a thing. It was just a lot of different things.
- [10:54]
C
Yes.
- [10:54]
A
And there's a lot more Epstein sound where that came from, I promise. I just, you know, can't put it all in here right now. So how do Trump and his inner circle view their relationship with public opinion?
- [11:05]
C
So he definitely cares about polls, that's very clear. And he's been conditioned to do this. Going back to the Apprentice. Right. I did a story on him and The Apprentice in 2015 when he was a candidate, 2016. And at that point, ratings were God to him. He would call these TV executives, you know, did you see the latest ratings? You know, and. And just like now, he would exaggerate them. You know, he sort of has an ability to dismiss the ratings, or in this case, the public polls, he doesn't like and exaggerate them. But at the end of the day, he knows when he's exaggerating. Right? He knows where things stand. And so that's what he's doing with polling. He's certainly aware. And then more than polling even is sort of the feedback loop with the media. He is deeply aware of what he see a little bit on social media, but mainly still kind of on cable news or what comes across his desk on a podcast, or someone shows him a YouTube clip. And he is aware when a head of a bank goes on Fox News and says these tariffs are going to tank the economy. He's aware of all of that, and he's constantly responding to that. One thing in covering him that's been interesting and it still seems to be true, even though he can't run again. So there's a little less at stake, is that when he's sort of pulled between two conflicting imperatives, when there's kind of an outcry, when his base loses its mind, he almost always goes back to placating his base. So in his first term, sometimes he would maybe offer an olive branch on immigration, right? He's talking about being super tough on border security, but, you know, maybe he's had a meeting with dreamers, and he'll say, like, these kids are the best among us. They came here through no fault of their own. They're valedictorians. They should be allowed to stand, stay. Then when he gets that feedback loop from social media, from conservative media, that his base doesn't like, that he always gets worried about alienating his base and goes back to his base, which I will say I've always found odd, because the one thing about Trump is he has this incredibly loyal base in this floor that he will never fall behind. And so the promise of him is he could lead his base somewhere, but he never does. If he chickens out, it's often in service of his base.
- [13:21]
A
He often is somebody who can be like, I can dictate this, like, I can do whatever I want, and I'm not going to lose any votes if I'm going to shoot someone on Fifth Avenue. You know, like, he has this sort of internal confidence about what he can do. But also, and Epstein is kind of an example of this. I mean, we're going to get into Epstein more. So I don't want to, you know, jump too far ahead of ourselves. But that's one where there was a hue and cry. And rather than do the thing they all wanted him to do, which is release the Epstein files. He made a bunch of phone calls to Megyn Kelly and Charlie Kirk and said, you guys settle everybody down. Then they keep, like, re releasing old stuff. He's a weird combination, I guess, of getting spooked or trying to placate people. I think that's right. But I also think he's got, like, some go tos, right? He's like, they're mad about Epstein, so let's do something I know they'll love, which is invade DC or send people to a gulag in Venezuela. What I was thinking is how much different his second term feels like than his first term, where I think people internally were telling him not to do stuff and he would sort of listen or he cared more if there was gonna be a hue and cry, like you pointed out. Right. Kennedy center, people are gonna care about that. You're gonna get yelled at. And like, he backed off back then, and this time he's like, I don't care. I'm going for it.
- [14:36]
C
Yeah. And I mean, you mentioned if Epstein's coming up, he has these sort of gold standards of distraction. I will also say a lot of these things are, to be clear, sending the national guard into D.C. is not actually that popular, certainly not in D.C. at least. But he has these kind of 80, 20 issues that. That have been his issues since the 80s. So, like, crime, like, that's just an area where he's really comfortable being sort of like the really tough guy on crime. Now, does that mean he. He may take it too far or make some political stumbles? Absolutely. But, like, crime is an area he's comfortable. Hard line on immigration, he's been that way since the 80s. It's an area he's really comfortable. Again, I think one of those focus group people you mentioned is like, hey, you know what? Like, I liked being tough on immigration in theory, but now that, you know, ICE guys who aren't in uniform and are wearing, like, hoodies and masks are leaping out of a white van and nabbing my neighbor, like, it's not so cool. Like, yeah, you can overstep, but that's one of his comfort zones.
- [15:40]
A
When you were listening to that sound, was there anything that you were like, wow, anything jump out at you?
- [15:45]
C
So I'm gonna sort of like, break the fourth wall in the sense that I listened to the whole focus group last night in preparation for this podcast. One thing that jumped out at me and it was the first person you played was how many people you were Right. It is a total grab bag. But just the one through line was how many people brought up Epstein unprompted as a frustration or anger point for any number of issues. Like I knew that from my reporting, but it was interesting to hear again, sort of how truly animating and maddening that is for a number of people who voted for Trump.
- [16:21]
A
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- [18:05]
B
I really, really liked the fact that he's essentially shipping particularly violent criminals that are part with gangs and cartels. I do like that he's shipping them over to like international prisons. And plus being from Texas, we get a lot of those drug cartels and stuff that happen pretty regularly. I did notice that there was a dramatic decrease in that. I do like that. Is that that's becoming less of a risk because I go to Dallas every now and then with my girlfriend to go to, like, concert, go to just go on dates and stuff sometimes. And around the time when the Biden administration was still in effect, there was a lot more soft on crime attitude towards it. And it was very hectic. For context, we've had like, license plates being stolen. I've had friends had stuff broken into by their house, violent threats and stuff. And now all that seems to be a lot less common. Now.
- [19:02]
A
I will always favor someone that rules with an iron fist versus doesn't do anything. So I think the fact that he is able to talk to Putin, he is able to talk to Ukraine, he is able to go talk to these leaders in other countries where we may not have full. And let's be honest, nuclear weapons could easily wipe us off the face of the earth. I like somebody that is willing to wheel and deal. He was a businessman, so I'm okay with that part of it. And I think he's doing far better this term as far as, you know, actually getting in front of leaders. I was overseas during the political campaign in 2024 when everyone was campaigning and someone came up to me, hearing my accent, knowing that I was American was like, your president should be in an elderly home. This is elder abuse, blah, blah, blah. Shortly after Trump got shot and I was in a Middle Eastern country and people are like, he's such a badass, whatever. Not that that really matters, but at least depending on who you ask, the fact that Trump is very perhaps braggadocious and has the balls to meet with foreign leaders could be a good thing.
- [20:10]
B
I like his traction. I do really agree with the undocumented workers and people not putting in to what this country has to give while everyone else, I look at my paycheck and the taxes are crazy that come out of that. And these people are being able to be paid cash and not putting in any taxes and able to get different benefits. His age is starting to show a little bit more and more every year, but it didn't, you know, you know, curve like it did for Biden when he started. And regardless, he can still speak coherently. Strong. And I do like that.
- [20:51]
A
So I know we just heard a lot about immigration. We're going to do whole shows on that as we go through the season. But immigration, my takeaway from listening to a lot of these voters throughout the summer is that the reason that Trump is usually on firm ground in a couple areas is because the voters are often with him like they are with him more often on immigration. They're with him on crime. And they wanted something done about the economy. Right. That he's a businessman. He do something about the economy. If you asked me to tell you in 15 seconds why Trump won in 2024, it's those three issues coupled with Biden's age. And I also actually just want to point out that the same woman in that sound who said she liked Trump ruling with an iron fist was talking about how annoyed she was about the Epstein files in the first clip. But here's my question for you. They were talking about how he deals with foreign leaders. And I hear this all the time in focus groups. Like, I think a lot of us who are more close observers are like, this guy's getting punked by Putin. He's being humiliated by them. But average Americans see the pictures of him with other world leaders, and they feel like, look, that's an American president who can sort of stand toe to toe with Vladimir Put. So they like the idea that he talks to them. I've always heard that from voters. But how has the rest of the world learned to deal with Trump differently this time? How do they think about Trump? Because one European told you that Europe has learned that to treat Trump more like the Gulf states have done. What does that mean?
- [22:14]
C
Yes, I will answer that, but I just wanted to make one observation about all those clips you just played. To me, the through line also was even though they chose different data points, and they chose data points in some cases that foreign policy officials would say are absolutely wrong. Right. That he's getting rolled by these world leaders. The through line was strength. Right. In every instance, it was just him being, like, tough and strong and a total badass in their minds. And that, like, to me, was what I was hearing, even though it was a grab bag of examples of that. But yes, we did a story on how world leaders have learned to deal with Trump. And it's. It's a weird mix. It's a mix of flattery, which is always the case. Right? So you've seen all of these countries and leaders nominate him for sort of almost laughable Nobel Peace Prizes, Right? So that's one. But it can't be pure flattery because Trump, like these focus group voters, respects strength. Right. And so if you're just kind of coming as a pure supplicant, he doesn't love that either. So sometimes it's being tough. Trump has always kind of loved autocrats and dictators. He respects their strength. I always kind of say Because I think it's true that in his first term, he won the presidency and was expecting it to be a monarchy and was kind of annoyed when he found out, you know, these things have to go through Congress and, you know, there's these laws in other branches, you could argue, sort of rendered Congress much more null and void.
- [23:37]
A
I would argue that, in fact, in.
- [23:39]
C
His return to power. So the person who told us, you know, it's like the Gulf states, it's sort of lavishing him with gifts, right? Like the plane from the Qataris. And then another thing is sort of just knowing his psyche. So, like, Trump actually really cares about the epistolary form, right? Like, he writes letters to people. He'll see an article and he'll rip it out and write in Sharpie what a horrible journalist you are, and have an aide send it to you, or he'll praise you and send it to a lawmaker. You know, great job with that statement Trump himself seems to value, like him taking the time with his Sharpie to write a letter. And it also means something to him in return. So think of the Kim Jong Un love letters that he always called them. So, for instance, the British came, and quite sadly, they came bearing a letter from King Charles, right? A handwritten letter that's like one of Trump's erogenous zones. Oddly, that meant something. And then that handwritten letter was playing on another thing Trump cares about, which is he loves ceremony and he loves parades and he loves pomp and circumstance. And so King Charles, in a letter, invites him to a rare second state visit to the UK that means a lot. Trump also talks a lot about genes and heritage and how he has good genes. So you've seen some world leaders playing on, you know, if it's a country where his ancestors are from or his great grandparents, they. They will play up that. And they also all use whatever angles they have. So the head of NATO, who's a great golfer, that's his angle. He golfs with the president. And then the other thing is these world leaders all get together and kind of like war game among themselves. Like, what worked for you, what went off the rails at your Oval Office visit. How can we avoid being Zelensky in that blow up, right? How can we avoid being the South African president? When things got really awkward, what's the smart thing to do? And it's sort of a hodgepodge of managing him in all of those ways.
- [25:39]
A
The thought of other world leaders sitting around and trying to game out how to best appeal to Trump. There's something quite gross about trying to appeal to a guy like Trump in the best way. Also, the thing that you said, you said the word sharpie and erogenous zones, which does he also like to communicate in pictures? Ashley, Are some of them erogenous pictures? Just yes or no. Give me a yes or no answer.
- [26:03]
C
I'm just aware of the sharpie.
- [26:05]
A
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- [28:29]
B
The other thing that was a big thing for me, that this made me regret, me voting for him, was the disappearance of the Epstein client list. That was, like, one of the things that he ran on, and that was, like, the thing that sold me on voting for him in a lot of ways. I wanted the people that were involved in all that horrendous activities to finally be brought to the light. And suddenly that list doesn't exist anymore. He gets passive aggressive when people ask about it. That type of immorality is just something I just personally can't abide by. I just can't believe that he said what he said, that he was talking about that they'll release the files. And his people said, they'll release the files. And then he turned around one day and said, are we still talking about this? And I just caught. My eyes. Couldn't roll to the back of my head even further, as if we thought that that wasn't plain, like, obvious, like, there's something that doesn't want. That he doesn't want to talk about anymore. And I. It just made me so disappointed. Hugely disappointed. It's the biggest disappointment that I've had with him so far. Smell the smoke. But someone tells me there's nothing happening. And Trump was kind of opposite of that originally. He was going to say his opinion whether it pissed off everybody in the room or. Or what. It's just past few days with the whole issue, and, like, the Epstein thing has actually probably shaped my grade worse of, you know, you hand out binders, you do all this stuff. Like, there's gonna be this big reveal. And, you know, like, someone mentioned earlier the reality show aspect of it. I mean, this is real stuff we're dealing with, like, real crimes that could have been committed on either side. And I used to not feel that way. Was like, anybody that's on the list, you know, should be exposed. I always love when Trump says, I only met the guy once, but they have 50 different pictures of him with.
- [30:14]
A
Their arms around each other.
- [30:15]
B
I mean, it's like, come on, you know, you got to be kidding me. I mean, that seems to be like, the new thing. Oh, I only met the guy once for 20 minutes, you know, Come on. Yeah, I Don't buy that for one second. I actually have an older brother and I have a cousin that graduated from mit. And the president of MIT was forced to resign because they were, you know, very heavily involved with Epstein. And I think they're going to find a lot of people high up. I think that's why they're not being very transparent. There has to be a lot of high powered people that have a lot of dark secrets that they don't get leaked out. And some of those secrets are being covered up by our commander in chief because he's involved. I mean, let's be honest. And we already know he's a convicted felon, multiple counts. So, you know, you'd be naive of Americans to think that he's not going to protect himself and cover himself and his friends when, when they've done things that were unethical, whether it was sexual fetishes or the problem was with a porn star or whatever, you know, that he's a felon for. So, I mean, it is what it is. You know, the guy may be a good businessman and he may turn out to be a great president, but he has some weird fetishes and, you know, he's a little bit of a weirdo. Elon. He talked about it when he was there and then he tried to throw it at us after he was gone. Why didn't you show it to us while you were there? Thing do I think that there's some like huge smoking gun that's going to link Donald Trump to actual the sexual thing with children? Because the Democrats had that originally, it would have been way out like under that administration. So I think that as terrible as the issue of the children there and all that, I also think there's a whole other side of the Epstein thing of like money laundering when it comes like Bill Gates across the country. So I think it's not so much, in my opinion Trump's name's going to be on the list, but I think it would be one of those cases that would rock everybody in the world because I think the whole entire world would feel like we're all played, that the sides that we're picking back between are really rubbing elbows together outside of our votes. I think it's massively hypocritical that Trump's administration is very, very heavy handed on ice, which by the way, ICE does do a lot of stuff with, you know, human sex trafficking. That's like one of the things that they do combat. And yet when it comes with politicians, celebrities, international entities, suddenly that same fervor that is involved with ice, the same attitude. It would make sense to be consistent, both morally and ideologically consistent in treating this.
- [32:54]
A
I'll tell you what, one phrase you almost never hear in a focus group is the thing that made me regret my vote. Like, people don't usually say they regret their vote, but the very first guy said, I regret my vote because of the Epstein stuff. But he is also the one who was super gung ho about sending immigrants to foreign prisons. But he would have changed his vote over Epstein. What do you think about the way Trump has handled the Epstein saga in the like, I hope it goes away kind of way, which is sort of not how he usually approaches these things.
- [33:26]
C
I mean, what's been interesting to me is that so far, and it kind of ebbs and flows and it looks like now that Congress is coming back, it may come back into the media bloodstream again. But for someone who can just sort of bulldoze over or ping pong between controversies with them having no real effect on him. Right. I mean, you can start with his 2015 campaign and things that would have killed lesser nominees bounce off of him. The, the Epstein stuff is just sticky in a way that we rarely see with Trump. And he's tried a couple of different ways of handling it. Right. Part of it is like he's sort of given his base orders, like his very loyal base orders to just like move along and they won't. And that's kind of rare. So I guess for whatever reason, because this is so sticky, I actually don't know what he could do to make it go away other than to release everything, whatever that may be. And even then, I don't know if it goes away. Right. But that is at least the through line in these focus group participants. And you heard a couple different things. One is that, like, there's some people who truly believe that, like, what Epstein was doing is so abhorrent. Abhorrent, Right. Like the guy who said he regretted his vote. That, like, how can we not? Right. That it is sort of like a moral red line and like, Trump has a duty to the world. It's also interesting, some people spoke about, I don't know if you played all these clips, but some people spoke about, like, look, we know politicians are politicians. They make these promises during the campaign about Medicare, Medicaid or this and that. But like, they can't really do it. You know, we don't there. He's not actually going to end a war on day one. That's a Little outside of his control that involves Russia and Ukraine or we know Congress actually has to pass his legislation, but this is something that he actually has the single handed power to do. Right. So they hold him responsible in that way. And then this is a president who has fanned conspiracy theories and so he has a base that is primed to believe conspiracy theories. And to be clear, I'm not, I sort of don't know what I don't know about Epstein. So I'm not saying I think there's some very legitimate questions and there's some conspiracy theories, but I think one or two of the people you played sort of had some other conspiracies about Epstein. Right. Maybe involving money laundering. But like this thing is just sort of like Kudzu Moss. It's just like spreading over everything in a way that is even outside of his control.
- [35:48]
A
Yeah, I mean, I have a lot of thoughts on the Epstein stuff because it was mostly all summer. I mean, we just heard voters talk about it all summer. And I'll say a couple of things that were interesting. The swing year groups brought it up more oftentimes than the super Trump, Trumpy groups. And I think that's because some of the Trumpier groups are just, they're actually less online, some of them, and they're more, they're older, they're more devoted to Trump in a kind of like, I want his economic businessman brain, whatever. But a lot of these swingier voters cared about Epstein. The other thing I would say is that it's funny the way some of them do have a moral red line about it. They're like, this is about people raping children, child sex rings, which by the way, on the right, the super duper swampy, right? Like the child sex rings. Like, that's why somebody showed up at Comet Pizza with a gun.
- [36:42]
C
Like, this is a QAnon.
- [36:43]
A
It's the QAnon. Like this is sort of deep in this bloodstream. And so Trump is supposed to be the QAnon hero. He's supposed to be the guy who fixes this. I think though that they do tell themselves. And you heard one person say it, this idea that if Trump was in the files, because this is what strikes me about this sound is it's not a lot of people accusing Trump. They're all just like, he said he was gonna do it and he's not and I'm mad about it. Not a ton of people are speculating. There's one guy in there who says, look, we all know why this is happening. It's because Trump's in there. But the amount of denial from Trump voters and even from others to sort of be like, I don't know why he's not releasing this. I don't know why everyone on his team said that they were going to do it, and now they're not. Most people sort of don't accuse Trump, which I find odd, I guess, knowing what we know about Trump's history, both with Epstein and with women. It's, like, interesting to me how much leeway he gets on. He must have some reason, like, he's protecting someone else, not he's protecting himself.
- [37:45]
C
Yeah. It's interesting, too, because we know that he was told by his attorney general that he's in the Epstein files. It's worth noting that just being in that orbit does not mean guilt. And so I will say, and again, I don't know how much of this resonated, but there was a period before it came out that he had been told he was in the Epstein files, where I had a hunch that it was going to come out that he was. Because you started hearing from the White House and from his allies, like, look, anyone can tell an FBI tip line anything. Right. Like, we need to protect all the innocent people. You know, like, let's say there's 2,000 people in my cell phone contacts. I shouldn't be responsible for all of their behavior. You know, what if someone falsely implicates me? You know, so. So that was a talking point. And I don't know if that is why people are not blaming him, because that talking point has kind of hit. Like, just because you knew Jeffrey Epstein doesn't mean you did something illegal. Or if it's just more of Trump's superpower and people who have voted for him are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt about a number of things.
- [38:47]
A
Yeah. What I do hear, though, is that there's a lot of people who don't want to let this go because they think the harm was real and an.
- [38:57]
C
Understandable moral red line. Yeah, right. Yeah, of course.
- [39:00]
A
And actually, in the context of what Epstein did, that's not one of these things we just wave away.
- [39:05]
C
Right.
- [39:05]
A
People are going to wave away Stormy Daniels and the paperwork and maybe the Miss USA and maybe even E. Jean Carroll. But, like, if he was participating in a pedophile ring, that's like a different thing altogether. I actually think we don't make enough of how weird Trump is being about anything coming up. Because if he is in the Epstein files in ways that are innocuous or easily disprovable? Yeah, yeah, relatively benign. So, okay, then make that case instead. The Streisand effect of him refusing and trying to get everybody to shut up, to me, is the weirdest thing I've ever seen. And I think it's strange that actually we're not all talking about it all the time until he does it.
- [39:50]
C
Yeah. I mean, again, I sort of don't know what I don't know. I would like to know everything about this as well. And I'm not a particular conspiracy theorist. But what's interesting to me is, again, just having covered Trump from that perspective, it's not just that it's sticky, but it's the rare thing he's lost control over, because you also keep in mind that during the campaign, he didn't really run on Epstein. Like, you talk to these voters, and there is like this deep, acute sense that Trump at every rally written on the teleprompter was. And then on day one, I'm gonna sign an executive order releasing the Epstein files. That's not what it was. It was never on a teleprompter. I am pretty sure it was never spoken from a rally stage. From Trump's mouth. I believe he addressed it about twice. Once was when he was asked kind of broadly, you know, are you good when you get in, will you commit to releasing JFK files, the MLK files and the Epstein files? And even then during the campaign, Trump equivocated on Epstein, right? He's like, mlk, definitely jfk, definitely Epstein. We'll have to see. And so it sort of took on a life of its own in the campaign. It was fanned by QAnon and it was fanned by his base, and it was fanned by all number of people, but not him. And it followed him into the White House. And he is someone who is generally agree or disagree with his policies and his behavior, but he is sort of a master, right? Like he's on a stage and he realizes that he's losing a little audience interest, right? And he. He does the weave to get them back and he can. You know, I've covered all these politicians and Trump is the only person who. And you know, normally you talk to politicians and it's like for them to remember Hillary Clinton or Biden or Jeb Bush's slogan, right? They have to see it on like 15 TV ads and 10 YouTube pre rolls and one rally and four mailers. Trump says something at a rally once, like Space Force, and I'm like, that's weird. And then by the end of the speech, like everyone's chanting back space force, space force, space force. During his assassination attempt. It's like an instinctual sense of like what the moment for him politically calls for. To rise up with blood on his face and pump his fist and chant, fight, fight, fight. And he never really had control of this. It kind of got ahead of him in a way that things don't. And it's now just snowballed in a way he's really not controlling.
- [42:05]
A
Sort of like Biden, where everybody thinks Biden said he was going to be a one term president, but instead he kind of said it one time that he was going to be a bridge to the next generation. And otherwise he didn't say it, but lots of people around Biden said it like, well, I'm sure he'll be a one term president. And the thing with Trump is that Bondi and Cash Patel and Dan Bongino, they talked about it endlessly, 100%. And when Pam Bondi went on TV as attorney general early in her tenure and said, donald Trump has told me to get these files out. They're on my desk. And the President has said, get these out. People heard that. They assumed Trump was gonna make it a priority in a way that I agree with you. Trump himself actually kept distance from. Then Cash Patel, Pam Bondi all get in a position where they're ready to do something about this. And then Trump goes, no, no, no, you can't. And they all are like, oh, what do I do now?
- [42:58]
C
And the irony is by not sort of fully releasing whatever there is to release, it's not like it's a great news cycle for Trump because every footage is like his very positive quote about Jeffrey Epstein to New York magazine, noting that Jeffrey Epstein likes younger women, which takes on a different sheen when we know he's involved in pedophilia, right? And sex trafficking. Are photos of the two of them together, are them laughing and whispering and kind of like pointing at a party. None of that sort of B roll, which Trump is acutely aware of, is positive for him. And that B roll kind of exists in perpetuity until we reach a conclusion.
- [43:37]
A
But Ashley, this is the thing that I can't get right. You just see he's a master, right? He isn't. He understands PR better than everybody. So one of the things he knows is that you got a crisis on your hands. You tell it all, you tell the truth, you tell it fast. You get it out there, right? You get it done with his trying to keep a lid on this has prolonged this story in ways that totally seem unfathomable. Where he's got congress blocking for him. It's like, what is in there that he is hiding? It's just funny for him to run as I'm gonna be the most transparent president in history. We've got all these people on the right being like, he'll be so transparent. He'll be so good for free speech. Curb free speech. The cops and ICE cover their faces. They cover up the Epstein files like it's weird. I think it's weirder than weird. We all know that feeling. You finally manage to get away on vacation and the worrying starts. Will that bogus beware of dogs sign keep your home safe?
- [44:28]
C
What about that fake camera you set up?
- [44:30]
A
And will someone finally find your old.
- [44:31]
C
Hide and key rock?
- [44:32]
A
That's where ADT comes in, all that stuff.
- [44:34]
C
It's safe ish.
- [44:35]
A
It seems fine when you don't really think about it, but you know, it truly doesn't work. Instead, ADT provides security solutions that keep you actually safe, giving you real peace of mind. Because vacation is supposed to be, you know, relaxing. Don't settle for Safe ish. Visit ADT.com today to learn more. Progressive knows we all crave validation.
- [44:52]
B
Girl, you are not 37. I would have guessed 27.
- [44:55]
C
You guys are too sweet. Sure.
- [44:56]
B
Dewy skin.
- [44:57]
A
Terrific.
- [44:58]
C
Is something wrong, Ned?
- [44:59]
A
Why would you ask? Just because Today marks my 10th anniversary.
- [45:02]
B
Without a car accident or even a speeding ticket. But somehow tonight's all about your skin care. Wow.
- [45:09]
A
With snapshot from Progressive you can get a personalized rate based on how you drive. And that's all the validation you need. Progressive Casualty Insurance company and affiliate snapshot not available in California from all agents Search possible for unsafe driving. Now let's go to the covering up their faces. Speaking of which, let's turn to D.C. we're going to have more Epstein stuff as we go through this season of the pod, I assure you because it's not an issue that's going away. So do you live here? Well, actually I don't want to ask you exactly where you live, but you live in the D.C. metro area as I do.
- [45:40]
C
I live in D.C. okay.
- [45:42]
A
So you're in the occupied zone right now.
- [45:45]
C
I am.
- [45:46]
A
So Trump has seized control of DC in the police force temporarily and I was surprised by some parts of the Biden to Trump voter reaction. So let's listen. Are there better ways that we could be using our military? First of all, and also like is it just another, I don't know, intimidation factor. I think D.C. police in general has just a history of like, corruption. So, like, should we use those reasons to better their force? Like, why are we using our federal resources in D.C. so I don't know. I guess I said I was a fence sitter, but maybe I'm leaning more towards, I hate it, that area in general, like we could be disempowering our police force better.
- [46:28]
B
I don't think 30 days is enough for a result, but we'll see. I mean, I don't think it's egregious that he's doing it because he can. But, you know, after the 30 days is, is where I'll have more of the real stance on it.
- [46:43]
A
I guess I'm on the fence because I firmly believe we have the right to, you know, not be quartered by soldiers and not to be illegal searched and seized. But at the same time, is that not what our military is for, is protection. So if there's something that necessarily needs to be, you know, the military has to be there for protection. Our National Guard has to step in. I totally agree with that. But if this is a personal thing, I just don't think police forces can be fixed as quickly. I have a lot of cousins that were in the military and police officers and you know, one of my uncles is a police officer and he said, I know people want police reform, but it doesn't happen that quick.
- [47:19]
B
I look at everything like it's a job, right? They're not doing their job. The D.C. police and the city can't handle, like, you see the crime rates, it's horrible. It's like, it's like Houston. I mean, Democratic ran the mayor, right? Like, again, like if you have crime rates and your city killed handlehood, then crime, your boss has to come in and clean it up. It just makes a bad reflection. So to me it just kind of points out like, hey, they're not doing their job. And yes, maybe our military, like they're National Guard, what else would they be doing? I mean, they're sitting at on a base somewhere, like counting bullets or something, you know, like they're not doing much anyway. So we're just have them there. They do other things when needed, but day to day, not a lot. So put them to work. They're getting paid. So let them go walk the streets for a little bit, show some presents. Like in Mexico when you get off a cruise ship, you see the military standing out there. It's just the president just to let you know, hey, don't act stupid.
- [48:09]
A
So you and Nancy Youssef published a piece last week in the Atlantic called why is the national guard in D.C. even? They don't know. And what's really interesting to me is how many of the troops in your piece were sort of like these voters, where they're like, to the extent that people don't like this, it's more about a waste of resources and not the creeping authoritarianism of installing the American military in one of our cities. But tell us about your reporting.
- [48:35]
C
We sort of conceived of it as a sort of a postcard from occupied Washington, because living, you know, in the area like you, I'm sure you have so many friends and asking, like, what is it actually like, right? And so we kind of wanted to get a sense of that. And so there are people who are worried that Washington is a blueprint that Trump will try to impose on other cities. And there are certain challenges about that that we can get into if you want, and that it is sort of frog in the boiling water, like acclimating America to a sweeping push towards authoritarianism, using the military as our nation's police force. But most of the concerns from everyone were far more quotidian, right? There was the kind of, like, absurdity of this. These people, you know, I think there were six states that sent National Guardsmen, and about half were from D.C. national Guard, half were from outside. So they're away from their jobs, they're away from their families. They sometimes pay penalties being away from their jobs. They can't be fired. But there can be other penalties when they're away from their jobs. And, you know, you're leaving your family, you're leaving your job to come to D.C. to kind of like, perform Boy Scout merit badge activities, right? You're. You're going to clear brush and then chop up that wood and then spread it with wheelbarrows and mulch, right? This was not in my piece because I learned about it afterwards. But someone told me, you know, walking by the eeob, right by the White House, and they pass the National Guard, there's all the food trucks down there, the Mr. Softy trucks. And it's like the National Guard with, like, their rifles and, like, their soft serve, right? Like, it just. It just seems absurd. There's the National Guard, you know, patrolling the wharf, where it sometimes feels like they're guarding the yachts, right? And so there's kind of the Guard that's like, this is a waste. This isn't what we're trained for. Right. So there's that. Then there's the people of D.C. who don't want the guard there, who are offended by Trump's depiction of D.C. as sort of a crime ridden hellscape. They resent that, they don't like the guard, they're angry at the guard. And then there's even the people who don't mind the guard, who don't necessarily think this is the best way to solve these problems, that it probably should be a local police force or more social service resources. But you know, I stood at Union Station for a while for this story one day and there were people who came up to the National Guard and quietly flashed them thumbs up and gave them Gatorades. And one man said, and this is true, said, look, since you have been here, normally when you walk by Union Station, smells like pot, right? It's not the end of the world. I can't remember in D.C. if it's legal or decriminalized, but like, whatever. It's not like a huge crime issue, but it is like a quality of life issue. A lot of people don't like kind of the contact high. And he said like, and since you've been here, there's no odor of marijuana. And again, normally this person said, I see at least three or four kids fair jumping every day. And again, in terms of the way crimes go, it's not the worst crime. But like since you've been here, there's been no fair jumpers. But even Those people in D.C. who were kind of appreciative of the National Guard were doing so from like a point of dissatisfaction. And everyone in D.C. i'm sure you have stories. I certainly have stories. Has run ins with crime. Right? Like a lot of property crime. And there was a period when I would walk my 6 year old when she was younger to pre K, like I had a crime map implanted. I knew every place we passed on the less than mile walk, probably half mile walk to her pre K where there had been a carjacking, where there had been a mugging, where there had been a shooting, where there had been a murder, where there had been a stabbing. Right. And so there were residents who also were just like, yeah, like crime is an issue, it's a real issue, but we want DC to handle it. We don't think the military is required. And so it was kind of a stew of all of these forces. Is what you're seeing in D.C. right now?
- [52:22]
A
Yeah, I think that's exactly right. But the person I find most puzzling is Muriel Bowser. I can't make heads or tails of the way she's responding, because if you're the mayor of dc, you'd think you would at least be offended by the notion that, like, you can't do your job, you've created a hellscape, and I gotta come in here and bail you out. And so her response has sort of been to be like, thank you, sir. May I have another? It's not that bad, but it has been wild. And I think she could be saying, hey, you cut more than $1 billion out of DC's budget. Give it to me, I'll hire more cops. People know, and, like, not this. We're going to have military in our streets. That's not how she's acting. So what do you make of the way that she has responded to this?
- [53:03]
C
It is confusing. I mean, in some ways, what I sort of just described to you and what we outlined in our piece is, like, is a real ambivalence, like a real frustration and ambivalence from the Guard, from the residents of dc, et cetera. And I think in some ways her response, the most charitable thing, it feels like, is that she is channeling that ambivalence. Because there was one press conference where she kind of, to your point, says, like, thank you, Trump. May I have another, sir? And then also is asked, what is her message to nervous Hispanic workers? And she basically says, like, I'm so sorry you're living in terror. Right? So, like, it seems like a huge contradiction. You know, kind of, at best, she's maybe grappling with this. And I guess I also wonder because. Because DC does not quite have the same protections as an actual state. Right. Because of home rule. I mean, I wonder if she is more hamstrung in what she can do. And her concern is if she pushes him too far, she's gonna lose even more federal dollars. And, you know. Cause she has tried to play nice with him on a number of things, right from right when he was elected, removing the Black Lives Matter Plaza right by the White House. So she may feel like she has a little less leverage than, say, mayor of Chicago or governor of California.
- [54:16]
A
Yeah, we all know that feeling. You finally manage to get away on vacation, and the worrying starts, will that bogus Beware of dogs sign keep your home safe?
- [54:26]
C
What about that fake camera you set up?
- [54:28]
A
And will someone finally find your old.
- [54:29]
C
Hide and key rock?
- [54:30]
A
That's where ADT comes in, all that stuff. It's safe.
- [54:33]
C
Ish.
- [54:33]
A
It seems fine when you don't really think about it, but you know, it truly doesn't work. Instead, ADT provides security solutions that keep you actually safe, giving you real peace of mind. Because vacation is supposed to be, you know, relaxing. Don't settle for safe.ish. visit ADT.com today to learn more. Progressive knows we all crave validation.
- [54:50]
B
Girl, you are not 37. I would have guessed 27.
- [54:53]
C
You guys are too sweet.
- [54:54]
A
Sure.
- [54:54]
B
Dewy skin.
- [54:55]
A
Terrific.
- [54:56]
C
Is something wrong, Ned?
- [54:57]
A
Why would you ask? Just because Today marks my 10th anniversary with a car accident or even a.
- [55:01]
B
Speeding ticket, but somehow tonight's all about your skin care. Wow.
- [55:07]
A
With snapshot from Progressive, you can get a personalized rate based on how you drive. And that's all the validation you need. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliate snapshot not available in California from all agents. Surcharge possible for unsafe driving. Well, it sort of drives me crazy when people are like, whoa, crime is going down and whatever. I'm sort of like, okay, don't not be realistic about what it is. Anybody who lives in D.C. knows carjacking has been a real problem.
- [55:31]
C
Like, everyone has a story.
- [55:32]
A
Everyone's got a story. Everyone's got a thing, and it is a problem. And we would like to see DC Cops be more responsive about things. I think. I think that's one of the reasons they can get away with this. And so on one hand, with Neuro Bowser, I guess there's part of me that's like, the easy way to do this is to be like, okay, you've made your point heard. Give me my money and, like, I'll handle this. On the other hand, I'm also like, have a little pride in your city. Like, have a little pride in running your city. I don't know. Okay, so here's a different analogy. Let me say it a different way. You could stop all traffic accidents. You could stop all highway deaths if you lower the speed limit to 30 miles an hour. People don't do that because it impinges on the freedom to drive faster.
- [56:14]
C
It impinges on getting places right.
- [56:15]
A
There's always a tension between freedom and safety and conservatives, the conservatives that I grew up alongside of. We didn't trust the federal government to be the ones to do this. Local governments, the places that are closest, they're the ones that handle this stuff. And so it's funny, people are both ambivalent, but also, the guy who threw the subway sandwich is now a local hero. And you see people taking pictures with the National Guard sometimes around here because, like, you get tourists and they're like.
- [56:45]
C
Oh, I actually have to add, while I was writing the story, I Look at my 14 year old's Instagram, and she happens to be wearing, like a camo crop top. And she has posted a picture of her posing with the National Guard by her school under the caption. Twinsies. Right? They're sort of these. What's tricky about D.C. that we tried to get into our pieces. Like, there's also ICE deployed here, There's DEA deployed here, there's FBI deployed here. Trump has kind of taken control of the D.C. police, and that is all much more deeply troubling and frightening to the DMV population. But then in a weird way, the National Guard has kind of become the public face of this. So you have ICE agents popping out of vans, not being identified as ICE agents, and nine of them wrestling a Uber delivery driver to the ground. But then you have the National Guard with, like, their ice cream by the National Mall, like, you know, little Boy Scout tourists.
- [57:45]
A
Just since we're talking about. Because I want to be really clear that my point is that the fact that there is crime in D.C. and the fact that we care about it does not to me in any way justify the way, like, the occupation right now feels much more unsafe to me. I mean, like, you hear sirens constantly now. The streets that you walk on every day, like, you're on 14th street and like, they're just grabbing some Uber Eats guy and, like, wrestling him to the ground. And, like, that does not make me feel safer.
- [58:12]
C
Yeah, there's videos of kids pushing through ICE agents on their way to the first day of school. Right.
- [58:18]
A
Like, I hate it so much.
- [58:20]
C
There's dystopian images and kind of like wholesome Americana. But, like, it's this real dichotomy that is very complicated.
- [58:29]
A
It is complicated. It's a complicated visual. There are complications to how one untangles the issues. But I will just say for myself, part of what is frustrating is that listening to these voters, they are saying, I don't like crime. I try to sort of made this point on Twitter at some point where I'm like, I listen to voters all the time, man. Immigration and crime, they just care about it a ton. Like, you hear it all the time. People want to feel safe. And I think people are justified in wanting to feel safe. That is a normal thing for people to want. They don't. They want their kids to feel safe. They themselves want to feel safe. The idea, though, that we are living in a state of emergency in Washington, D.C. that required Trump to send ICE agents here and everybody else is ridiculous. And it is Trump's attempt to sort of start to normalize the authoritarian takeover. Him personalizing the military for his own ends and using crime as an issue, a projection, if I might add, from his own crimes. I think there's a little bit of a. I want to change the conversation. This is the conversation I want to have.
- [59:30]
C
Yeah. And some voters articulated this. Or not voters, D.C. residents also. Voters articulated this to me, that two things can be true, right. That they don't like the fact that. That they were out with their kid when there was a stabbing on the metro. And also they don't like what Trump's doing, and they don't want to bring in the National Guard. And the other thing you mentioned, and it just reminds me of Democrats writ large, is when residents of cities complain about crime, there is a tendency to be like, but crime's going down. How dare you? And what it reminds me of, frankly, is Biden with the economy, because I remember there were fantastic economic indicators. He had some really good economic indicators. But, like, if everyone in their own life doesn't feel them or everyone in their own life has an anecdote about eggs being, you know, $15 or now suddenly having to go to three grocery stores to kind of get the best deals and use the best coupons in a way they didn't three years ago. It's the same with crime. It's a thing that people have to feel.
- [60:27]
A
Well, when people talk about messaging and bad messaging, this is a great example of it, because Biden's economy was a tremendous recovery. It was a tremendous recovery from an extraordinarily difficult time that Covid gave us, where supply chains were disrupted, inflation was going up. And so Biden had the envy of the world's economy. As everybody was trying to dig out from COVID that didn't mean that he had an excellent economy. And so I think if Biden had had created an environment in which he said, we have so much more work to do. People are still hurting so much. And I hear about it all the time, and these prices are too high, but we are beating the rest of the world in this recovery. I am leading us out of this. And it's sort of the same way with to say, well, crime is going down. People are like, don't deny that, like, crime exists. It's still high. It was extremely high during COVID I mean, you lived here during COVID Everything was boarded up downtown. It was a really frightening kind of time. And there's so many of the sort of landmarks and the parks, like people are living in them. That's not even a crime issue. That's an issue of like, that's like.
- [61:32]
C
A quality of life.
- [61:32]
A
There's pain everywhere too. Like, it's just like it's a sad sort of state of things and people don't feel good about that. And so the fact that we had were recovering from that really sort of high place is not the same thing as people feel safe in this city. And so you need people who run these cities to take crime more seriously than they do, talk about it more, understand that their residents deserve to feel safe in those cities, while at the same time, I think being unequivocal about this authoritarian takeover is not how you solve these problems. And like I'm gonna lead my my state or my city and like you get out of here, Donald Trump is my personal opinion. You can you reporter do not have to to do that. Anyway. Okay. Ashley Parker, you've been such a good sport coming on, being our first guest for this season. Thank you so much and thanks to all of you for listening to another episode of the focus group podcast. We'll be back next week with a lot more to update you on. Play you some more sound from over the summer. Take care out there. Thanks for selling your car to Carvana. Here's your check.
- [62:43]
B
Whoa.
- [62:43]
A
When did I get here? What do you mean?
- [62:45]
B
I swear it was just moments ago.
- [62:46]
A
That I accepted a great offer from Carvana. I must have time traveled to the future. It was just moments ago. We do same day pickup. Here's your check for that great offer. It is the future. It's. It's the present. And just the convenience of Carvana. Sorry to blow your mind.
- [63:02]
B
It's all good.
- [63:03]
A
Happens all the time.
- [63:04]
C
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