The Focus Group Podcast

Host: Sarah Longwell (The Bulwark)
Episode: S6 Ep12: Epstein Files & Illegal Orders (with Will Sommer and Sen. Elissa Slotkin)
Date: November 22, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode is a two-parter examining two headline issues: first, the sudden political momentum behind releasing the "Epstein files"—and what focus group voters think about Donald Trump's hedging on their disclosure. Second, Sarah welcomes Sen. Elissa Slotkin to discuss Congress's PSA on refusing illegal orders in the military, lessons from the recent government shutdown, and what swing voters want now. Drawing on focus group insights, Sarah and her guests bridge voter attitudes with the tactics—and anxieties—of political leaders.

Part I: The Epstein Files and Trump's Base

1. Why the Shift on Epstein Files? (00:51–06:49)

Key Points:

• Trump reversed course and supported the move to release Epstein files after sensing he was losing support—even among loyal House Republicans.
• Will Sommer speculates Trump hasn't changed his mind, just his strategy, perhaps hoping to move the files into an indefinite Justice Department process to avoid true disclosure.
• Comparison to how Trump handled his tax returns: years of stonewalling with claims of legal or procedural barriers.
• Sommer draws parallels to Watergate: “The party who's being targeted will sort of relent a little bit... but I suspect what's going to happen here is the ball is rolling and it's gonna be very difficult to stop.” (Will Sommer, 05:32)

Notable Quotes:

• Sarah Longwell: “I don't think he's had a change of heart. It's a change of strategy... I can't imagine he's just going to let them come out.” (04:05)
• Will Sommer: “I think Trump is sensing that this issue is a big deal for the Republican base. Maybe the one thing where Trump can't really work his magic and just make it disappear.” (03:23)

2. Focus Group Reactions—Trump Voters on the Epstein Files (06:49–11:28)

Key Takeaways:

• Voters have noticed Trump’s evasiveness. Feelings run from mild annoyance to wilder conspiracy theories.
• Some express disappointment, feeling Trump had promised transparency but backtracked (“He said he was going to release them. Why didn’t you release them?” – Unidentified Trump Voter 3, 08:31).
• Others move to justify Trump’s actions, trusting that he’s protecting the country, or that “puppet masters” are at play; paranoia and “trust the plan” attitudes surface.
• For most, irritation doesn’t translate to abandonment. Instead, it’s akin to “being annoyed with a friend canceling plans at the last minute” (Sarah Longwell, 09:26).

Notable Quotes with Attribution:

• Trump voter: “Epstein didn’t kill himself. If the files are totally released, there’s too many people who are too powerful that would be exposed... If [Trump] exposes it, he probably won’t survive his presidency.” (Unidentified Trump Voter 2, 07:59)
• Sarah Longwell: “People are somewhere between annoyed and actively frustrated. … But this matters in the court of public opinion. Everybody’s heard about the Epstein files.” (09:26)
• Will Sommer: "I think there was this implication that... if you put the files out, then the cabal would somehow bring an end to the Trump presidency." (11:00)

3. What Breaks Through with Voters? (11:28–16:00)

Discussion:

• Though everyone’s heard of the Epstein files, most GOP voters aren’t connecting Trump’s actions to his own culpability—they hover at a high level, accepting excuses or embracing conspiracies.
• For independent/swing voters, it may be different: fatigue over repeated scandals, especially when not seeing material improvements in life.
• Will Sommer: “Everyone understands what a pedophile is... for many years it's been drummed into people that Jeffrey Epstein... is the embodiment of evil. So whether voters just understand Trump is kind of covering this up... that is just flat out not good for Trump.” (15:20)

4. What’s Next with the Epstein Files? (16:00–17:26)

Predictions:

• Legal and legislative delays will continue; White House trying to avoid a drawn-out “drip, drip, drip.”
• If Democrats gain power, expect renewed investigations and public exposure: “There are so many little shoes to drop out there that still remain for Trump.” (Will Sommer, 17:12)

Part II: Illegal Orders, the Military, and Democratic Strategy

1. Senators’ PSA: Refusing Illegal Orders (19:39–24:02)

Summary:

• Recent PSA features several lawmakers (all former military/intel officers) telling service members: “You can refuse illegal orders.”
• Prompted by concerns voiced privately by military and intelligence personnel, worried about being asked to act unlawfully on U.S. soil or against protestors.
• Slotkin: “A lot of rank and file folks coming to us and saying, like, ‘I'm worried, could I be held personally liable for this kind of thing?’” (21:49)
• The message is not a call for insurrection but a clear reiteration of the law: “Everyone in uniform that I know gets training on the USCMJ as early as boot camp.” (Slotkin, 24:02)

Memorable Moment:

• Sarah Longwell jokes, “Don’t give up the ship should be our tagline at The Bulwark.” (21:23)

2. Democratic Leadership and Voter Expectations (25:30–29:23)

Voter Attitudes:

• Focus groups reveal that while top-of-mind concerns are affordability and cost of living, there is a latent unease about authoritarian abuses—especially when they hit home (e.g., ICE in local communities).
• Slotkin highlights an “internal red line” in the American psyche against authoritarian conduct, which can override partisan loyalty: “Fear is contagious, but so is courage.” (26:51)

3. The Shutdown and Democratic “Cave” (32:15–43:44)

Focus Group Reactions:

• Democratic focus group participants in Maine are furious that leadership ended the government shutdown without winning significant concessions, seeing it as “the Democrats will always cave.”
• There’s disappointment over healthcare impacts, loss of leverage, and frustration with Chuck Schumer’s leadership.

Notable Quotes:

• Maine Democrat: “What we just told the Republicans was that, do what you want, the Democrats will always cave.” (Unidentified Voter, 32:26)
• Sarah Longwell: “People are desperate for a vibe shift, a tone shift... why are we just getting walked all over?” (37:32)
• Slotkin: “I may have much more pragmatic views than a lot of people in my caucus... but do I believe we sit and wait for bad things to happen so that public opinion turns? No.” (36:20)

Slotkin on Leadership:

• The real division is not moderate vs. progressive, but between those who see Trump as an existential threat (and want to fight) and those who hope things will correct themselves without direct confrontation.

4. What Have Tough Elections Taught Slotkin? (44:18–47:31)

Insights:

• Political dynamics shift fast; past election lessons don’t always apply.
• Voters are “actively avoiding news and politics”—winning is often more about “vibes” and authenticity than policy checklists.
• “The most common thing I heard in my last few elections was like, you just talk like a normal person. And I'm like, it's a low bar, man. We'll leap over that low bar.” (Slotkin, 46:42)

5. On the 2018 Class and Democratic Renewal (47:31–49:43)

Reflection:

• Fresh faces who hadn’t run for office before brought genuinely new energy and less political calcification to Congress.
• Slotkin notes the importance of non-politician experience and how independence from “party machines” changes political performance.

Notable Quotes and Timestamps

• “It’s like being annoyed with your best friend for canceling plans at the last minute.”
  Sarah Longwell (09:26)

• “If the files are totally released, there's too many people who are too powerful that would be exposed or create problems...”
  Unidentified Trump Voter 2 (07:59)

• “Fear is contagious, but so is courage.”
  Sen. Alyssa Slotkin (26:51)

• “We don't have the House, the Senate or the White House… but there's plenty of power in convening.”
  Slotkin (38:51)

• “Voters want to know there's a plan.... Do you seem like someone who's going to fight for them?... That's a vibe.”
  Slotkin (44:18)

Key Moments by Timestamp

• 00:51—Sarah Longwell introduces the Epstein files discussion.
• 03:23—Will Sommer analyzes Trump’s strategy.
• 06:49—Focus group Trump voters react to Epstein files obstruction.
• 13:26—Sarah and Will analyze partisan responses and what “breaks through.”
• 19:39—Slotkin segment begins; discussion of the illegal orders PSA.
• 25:30—Democratic focus group reactions to leadership “cave” on shutdown.
• 32:15—Maine Democratic voters vent over the shutdown deal.
• 38:51—Slotkin on fighting back without institutional power.
• 44:18—Slotkin’s lessons from swing-state races.

Tone & Style

The conversation is candid, insightful, and at times darkly humorous. Sarah Longwell’s tone is direct and relatable; focus group participants range from exasperated, to conspiratorial, to earnest. Will Sommer brings both skepticism and historical perspective; Sen. Slotkin is practical and empathetic, emphasizing action and accountability.

Summary

This episode offers a revealing look at how grassroots voters process political scandal—and how those dynamics shape elite strategy. Trump voters, while aware and sometimes irritated by his hedging on the Epstein files, largely trust him or rationalize his choices—echoing years of scandal fatigue but also the resilience of personality-driven politics. On the Democratic side, frustration is mounting against party leadership’s perceived passivity (“the Democrats will always cave”); the internal push is now about fighting back decisively. Sen. Slotkin charts a path for generational change within the party, urging bolder strategy, more authentic communication, and courage in uncertain times.

Listeners get a behind-the-glass look at the actual motivations and opinions of American voters, as well as how those insights are (and aren’t) reflected in the halls of power.