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Will Sommer
Extra value meals are back. That means 10 tender juicy McNuggets and medium fries and a drink are just $8 only at McDonald's for a limited time only. Prices and participation may vary. Prices may be higher in Hawaii, Alaska and California. And for delivery.
Sarah Longwell
Hello everyone and welcome to the Focus Group Podcast. I'm Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark and this week we a bit of a two parter based on some recent news events. First, I want to talk about this week's vote to release the Epstein files because I think we've got some focus group audio that pretty well demonstrates why Trump went from lashing out at Thomas Massie and Marjorie Taylor Greene to finally going along with releasing we'll see the Epstein files. That happened because some Republicans are getting mildly, and I stress mildly annoyed about his lack of transparency. Then in a little bit we're going to turn to the Democrats, including listening to some voters who are Wait for it. This is going to shock you. Mattis Allen not going to take it anymore. We are also going to hear from Senator Alyssa Slotkin about the way this government shutdown ended and what she's focusing on lately and what she's learned on the campaign trail. Winning a lot of tough races. She's one of the few Congress people who has been able to win in a Trump campaign district. But first I want to turn to the Epstein of it all. And I have got the Bulwarks. Great. Will Sommer, author of the very excellent False Flag newsletter. Will, thanks for hopping on.
Will Sommer
Hey, I'm happy to be here.
Sarah Longwell
So Will and I were just in Vegas together for Indie Fest and we went and saw the wizard of Oz at the Sphere, which I cannot recommend highly enough. I thought it was going to be goofy, but it actually was very awesome. But afterwards Will drops this bomb on me and Sunny and says, oh, that's the first time I ever saw the wizard of Oz. Can you imagine?
Unidentified Focus Group Participant
How is that possible?
Will Sommer
You know, I wasn't sure if I had or not. And then watching it, I was like, oh yeah, I don't remember this at all. But you Know, that only made the flying monkeys even scarier for me.
Sarah Longwell
I will tell you, the thing about the sphere that's cool that I didn't know was going to happen is that they sort of make it a sensory experience along with it being very large. The movie you're watching. There's, like, things that happen, but the funniest one is when suddenly they send out actual flying monkeys in the middle of the show. Freaked us all out quite a bit. What a way to watch the wizard of Oz for the first time as a grown man. All right, I want to dive right into the sound we have on Epstein, but before we do that, I actually been asking everybody this question. Why is Trump doing this about face on the Epstein files? Like, I understand he was going to lose that vote, but now he's all like, no, I've always been for it. Like, what is happening here? What do you think his strategy is?
Will Sommer
You know, I don't totally understand it. I mean, on the other hand, I do think this has gained such momentum, you know, as we discussed. I mean, he was going to lose the vote, but the idea that suddenly it's like, oh, yeah, he wants to sign it immediately, put it on his desk. I'm not sure if perhaps they have an idea about how they could prevent a release of a lot of the files after the Massey legislation passes. Possibly they could, you know, claim it's part of an open investigation now into all these nefarious Democrats. On the other hand, I do think Trump is sensing that this issue is a big deal for the base, for the Republican base. I mean, the fact that all these Republican members of the House were about to flip demonstrates that this is maybe the one thing where Trump kind of can't really work his magic and just make it disappear.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, I get that. I mean, I. I guess in my head I've been thinking, this doesn't mean that he's had a change of heart. It means that he's had a change of strategy, which is there's some other way now that they're trying to figure out how to not release what's in there, because the extent to which he's been fighting it makes it pretty clear he doesn't want these things to come out. And, you know, he did this with his taxes. He was able to stonewall on his taxes for all of those years by being like, wow, there's ongoing things happening. And then at some point was just, yeah, no, you're just never going to see these. And so he clearly didn't want people to see his taxes, just like he doesn't want them to see the Epstein files. So I can't imagine he's just going to let them come out. He's clearly got some other strategy for how to get them to hide the things that matter the most to him.
Will Sommer
I'm sure that in reality, I don't think he's really, you know, eager for these files to come out or willing. I don't think he's really given up the fight on this. He's just sort of trying to shift it to a place like where the Justice Department is in charge of it. You know, when the initial Justice Department memo came out in July, it struck me as a big mistake because for the months prior to that there had been some grumbling on the right, where are the Epstein files? But it was kind of this, like, stasis and there wasn't like really kind of a crucial moment that they hit. Whereas when they said, Epstein's over, get over it, that's when people got mad. And then we saw a lot of efforts to kind of get back to that status quo, like saying, well, I guess the court won't let us release the Ghislaine grand jury transcripts. So I think this may be an effort to shift it to that zone where there's no real deadline. You know, it's kind of in this Pam Bondi, Cash Patel, nether world. On the other hand, it kind of reminds me of Watergate where you have these incidents where, you know, other scandals too, where, you know, kind of the party who's being targeted will sort of relent a little bit and they'll say, okay, maybe you can have a special prosecutor or you can look at the tape, something like that. And then they keep kind of thinking that'll be the line where people stop asking for things. But I suspect what's going to happen here is the ball is rolling and it's gonna be very difficult to stop.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. Okay, so you think we're going to see these?
Will Sommer
I think so. Well, and then the question becomes, let's say, you know, a year from now, they bring out a tranche of the so called Epstein files. But then what happened to the documents that mentioned Trump's name? Will those be in there? I mean, you know, we've heard about FBI whistleblowers saying they were told to flag the documents. Cash Patel and Pam Bondi. This is so weird to me. Whenever they're in front of Congress and they're asked what happened to the documents with Trump's name on them, they will not answer. And so in other cases where, you know, they do this kind of, like, jokey, you know, like, senator, you should be ashamed of yourself, they just totally stonewall on that issue. And it makes me wonder, was there something that really happened to those files? Yes.
Sarah Longwell
Conspiracy. Okay, maybe you've been hanging out with these MAGA types too long.
Will Sommer
I'm sorry to see the world their way.
Sarah Longwell
All right, so let's listen to the sound that we've got from the voters. We did a show with Robert Draper from the New York Times last week, which was a great episode. Should go check it out. Without totally knowing the Epstein news was about to come to a head. So these are the same 2020 and 2024 Trump voters you heard in last week's show, but we hadn't played you the Epstein sound in that episode, so we're going to do it in this episode. So here's what they had to say about Trump's hedging on the Epstein files.
Will Sommer
I also am one of the ones that's upset by the Epstein files that they're not being released. Something that Trump ran on, and now he's literally saying, epstein who? And that's just, I feel, like, very dishonest and makes him look really bad.
Unidentified Trump Voter 1
The only thing that I was a little bit upset about is, you know, all during Trump's campaign, he said, you know, the Epstein files are going to be released to the public, and that hasn't happened. So I feel like he may be giving in to some pressure from maybe other Republicans or Democrats. You know, like, we were just hoping that he was going to follow through on everything. Also, I think there's some people on that list that would then require government action, which I think he's getting pressure not to do.
Unidentified Trump Voter 2
Well, I just think if you want to talk about puppet masters or whatever, the people that are controlling the government in the background or whatever, I'm going to jump on a conspiracy bandwagon here. Epstein didn't kill himself. If the files are totally released, there's too many people who are too powerful that would be exposed or create problems or whatever. And so I think whether Trump's involved in the Epstein case or not, I think that if he exposes it, he probably won't survive his presidency.
Unidentified Trump Voter 3
He said he was going to release them. Why didn't you release them? That is happening. And Trump's usually super transparent, so it's a little confusing. For all of us who are supportive, this is happening. That being said, the fact that he always is in his character and has been pretty transparent, pretty hardcore. I feel that's where I kind of trust there's something. I don't feel like he's on it. I feel like perhaps it's an inner international thing, or when he just wants.
Sarah Longwell
It just to be.
Unidentified Trump Voter 3
Like in pr, you just want it to be quiet and just go away. And that's not happening, unfortunately. But I just kind of feel like I trust that the reason he's not doing it is not necessarily to benefit him, it's to benefit the country in general.
Will Sommer
I think that's the off the beaten path sort of thing, but I just think it's a distraction. And if he was using it in a way that we're not aware of in the moment, you know, to set something up down the road, I think it would be cool.
Sarah Longwell
Will, this goes higher than we thought. Even higher than we thought. Trust the plan. I think when we talk about the Epstein files being a problem for Trump with his base, people sometimes fantasize about all of the walls, like, closing in on Trump and Republican voters seeing him for who he is. But this feels a bit more like, as one of the people in my shop called it, being annoyed with your best friend for canceling plans at the last minute. Like, why is he doing this? This isn't like him. But I still think this matters in the court of public opinion. And I would say that, you know, one of the things when I listen to focus groups that I try to gauge is the level of breakthrough of an issue. And the first way, you know, something is breaking through is that people have heard about it, period. Because in lots of cases, people haven't heard about anything. Everybody's heard about the Epstein files. Everybody understands generally that Trump is not releasing the Epstein files. And then I would say they're expressing somewhere between, well, there's an international pressure on him and he's. But he's protecting the country. So those are the firmly, like, I know him, he's playing 4D dimensional chess. But then there's the rest of them that are somewhere between annoyed and, like, actively frustrated. And so do you feel like the pressure from the base is really still on? Like, you heard that guy say, if it comes out, it's going to end his presidency. Which, gotta say, the people who say things like, oh, yeah, no, probably what's in there is going to destroy Trump, but they were happy to vote for him. When they think about him, like, that blows my mind. But leaving that aside, what do you make of the way the voters were.
Will Sommer
Talking about the Epstein files, I interpreted that remark as meaning that, like, the cabal would take Trump out if the files came out like that. Trump himself would not be damned by them. The respondent there had a lot of faith in Trump. And so I think there was this implication that, like, if you put the files out, then the cabal would somehow bring an end to the Trump presidency.
Sarah Longwell
I'm so glad you're here. No, of course, you're right. Of course that's the right way. That's how he meant it. But. Okay, sorry for the rest of the voters.
Will Sommer
I think there are a couple ways to look at this. As you said towards the end of the clip, we got people who are maybe alluding to some kind of, like, intelligence connection, maybe like a Mossad or CIA thing that, you know, unfortunately, we have to put our faith in Trump, but the more critical people up front. It was striking to me that, you know, I think the example of a friend canceling plans, I think more crudely, it's sort of like they expected daddy to give them a treat, and then suddenly it's like, no, we're not going ice cream shop or something. You go, ah, shoot. Oh, well, I guess the next step, which I think a lot of Democrats have been focused on, is what is Trump's implication here? Or what is his involvement? These emails about the, you know, the dog that didn't bark, these voters are not at that point at all. I mean, they are very much like, why is he holding it up? Maybe he's, you know, protecting someone or there's a national security reason, or maybe he's just not into this story. That's very much what the storyline was back when the DOJ initially closed this case back in the summer. So these people do not seem to be engaging with, like, the birthday letter or these various emails about Epstein trying to blackmail Trump. That story does not seem to have sunk in.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, you know, it's a really good point. And I gotta say, doing Epstein now, having listened to focus groups through so many Trump, do we call them scandals? But I'm thinking of things like when he was impeached after the perfect phone call, after January 6, after the Mueller report. I mean, just so many instances of the way that I've watched his voters sort of make excuses for him, rally around him. The court cases prior to the 2024 election were some of the ones where there was a volume to it. So they'd all heard that he had been indicted, they understood, they broke through, that he was being indicted. Maybe this is Somewhat similar to that, where they know it's happening, but they're hazy on the details. Like, they don't grapple with the actual details of it because that is too much to have to answer. And so they do just stay the very high level of, like, trust the plan. Trump's got it in hand.
Will Sommer
I think this is a very typical partisan response. I mean, certainly, I know when I, you know, when I was a young Republican in the George W. Bush era, I wasn't looking too deeply at, you know, the many errors of that administration, or I don't think many Democrats were super up on every detail of Hunter Biden's laptop.
Sarah Longwell
Sure.
Will Sommer
On the other hand, I mean, this is such a massive scandal, I do think it's noteworthy that people aren't really following it beat by beat, I think, because their partisan motivation, really, they wouldn't find it as compelling as people who are more critical of Trump. The one thing I would add here is, you know, obviously we're focused on Trump voters here, but I do think the story more broadly is sinking in with independents as well, and so who are perhaps less focused on the kind of the trust the plan aspect of it.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. I also think, look, as best I can tell voters, a lot of these swingier independent voters will give Trump, with his insane scandals, a lot of leeway as long as he's making their lives better and making things more affordable. And to the extent that he is failing at that, plus he's got this. I think it is contributing to what is now an actual. I'm not sure if we call it the bottom dropping out totally, but the bottom is dropping out with certain segments of voters. Right. It is dropping out with Hispanic voters, it is dropping out with young voters. And so those aren't his base. Those are the SW people who are just like, you know, it's all this BS stuff with him again, and we're not getting any of the benefits of these. I thought he was a businessman. I thought he was going to, you know, make things better, and he's not. And he's not even focusing on them. And I think that's a big part of why you're seeing things. And do you agree with that, actually? Because I don't want to overstate. There is always this, like, is this the thing that takes Trump down? Is the bottom finally falling out of the numbers? And I don't want to succumb to that, but I do want to try to get an accurate sense of, like, how voters are moving away from him and the polling Shows that that is happening to some degree.
Will Sommer
Yeah. I mean, I think this is definitely a low point for the second term so far. You know, I feel like there's a lot going on in terms of affordability. Obviously, they're coming off this bad election a few weeks ago. So I think this is a situation where, you know, and look, I mean, this is where we come to overthink these issues. Right. And so I don't want to say, let's not overthink it. But on the other hand, everyone understands what a pedophile is. And for many years, it's been drummed into people that Jeffrey Epstein, understandably, is like the embodiment of evil. And so whether, you know, voters just understand that Trump is kind of covering this up and they don't understand his motivations or whether they're engaging with it more deeply and saying, you know, maybe Trump is protecting himself here, that is just flat out not good for Trump.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. All right, last question. What do you think the next phase of the Epstein saga looks like? And do you think that the constant sort of drip, drip, drip, there's an ongoing investigation will placate that sense of irritation among Republican voters?
Will Sommer
This obviously now is kind of going off into assuming Trump signs this and probably be a court battle maybe in the future about which documents get released. But the reality is, I mean, I think the administration is trying to avoid that. Drip, drip. Right. They're ripping the band aid off. But, you know, look, every time they delay, they try to kind of push or fight over what files are going to get released. They're getting closer to when Democrats possibly take back one of the houses of Congress in November, and then that's when the trouble is really going to start. It's not like they're delaying for a better election result. I mean, things are probably going to get worse for Trump with subpoenas and committees and what have you. This just strikes me as something that's not going to go away for Trump. And then when you raise the issue of, well, are there missing files? You know, what was up with this FBI review of the files? I think it's very possible that, you know, fairly or not, this story is really never going to go away for him.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. Like, if Democrats get back in control, not just oversight, at some point, there will be a real reckoning with this information.
Will Sommer
I mean, what's up with Ghislaine Maxwell?
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
Will Sommer
Every time I want to talk about this, I mean, why is she in this cushy prison? There's probably some deal that is out there and you know Democrats are going to be able to find that deal. And so if it exists. And so, you know, I think there is just so many like little shoes to drop out there that still remain for Trump.
Sarah Longwell
Will Sommer, thanks man for coming on and breaking some of this stuff down. I appreciate it. No one's better than you.
Will Sommer
Yeah, thanks for having me.
Sarah Longwell
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Senator Alyssa Slotkin
Thanks for having me.
Sarah Longwell
You and several other Democrats in Congress just put out a psa. I saw it rolling around online this morning to the military and intelligence community. Let's just watch that real quick and then I want to ask you about it.
Senator Alyssa Slotkin
I'm Senator Alyssa Slotkin.
Senator Mark Kelly
Senator Mark Kelly. Representative Chris d'.
Senator Alyssa Slotkin
Aluzio, Congresswoman Maggie Goodlander, Representative Chrissy Houlihan.
Senator Mark Kelly
Congressman Jason Crow. I was a captain in the United States Navy, former CIA officer, former Navy, former paratrooper and Army Ranger, former intelligence.
Senator Alyssa Slotkin
Officer, former Air Force.
Senator Mark Kelly
We want to speak directly to members of the military and the intelligence community who take risks each day to keep Americans safe.
Senator Alyssa Slotkin
We know you are under enormous stress and pressure right now.
Sarah Longwell
Americans trust their military, but that trust is at risk.
Senator Mark Kelly
This administration is pitting our uniformed military and intelligence community professionals against American citizens like us. You all swore an oath to protect.
Senator Alyssa Slotkin
And defend this Constitution.
Senator Mark Kelly
Right now, the threats to our Constitution aren't just coming from abroad, but from right here at home. Our laws are. Are clear. You can refuse illegal orders.
Senator Alyssa Slotkin
You can refuse illegal orders.
Senator Mark Kelly
You must refuse illegal orders.
Senator Alyssa Slotkin
No one has to carry out orders that violate the law or our Constitution.
Senator Mark Kelly
We know this is hard and that it's a difficult time to be a public servant.
Senator Alyssa Slotkin
But whether you're serving in the CIA.
Sarah Longwell
The army, or Navy, the Air Force.
Senator Mark Kelly
Your vigilance is critical.
Senator Alyssa Slotkin
And know that we have your back.
Senator Mark Kelly
Because now, more than ever, the American.
Senator Alyssa Slotkin
American people need you. We need you to stand up for.
Senator Mark Kelly
Our laws, our Constitution, and who we are as Americans. Don't give up. Don't give up. Don't give up.
Senator Alyssa Slotkin
Don't give up the ship.
Sarah Longwell
That's great. I also think don't give up the ship should be our tagline at the Bulwark, but no one will go for that. For whatever reason. They think it's too on the nose. But I was struck when I saw that. Like, I found it very stressful because I felt like, what do you guys know? Why did you feel compelled in this moment to put something out expressly telling people, specifically, I assume the National Guard, maybe ICE agents, you don't have to follow illegal orders. Like, why were you compelled to do it?
Senator Alyssa Slotkin
Well, first of all, I think all of us have people in uniform, people in the intelligence community now who are quietly coming to us and saying, like, I just don't know. This is getting really fuzzy and I'm nervous about it. And that can be the domestic deployments, you know, deployment of the National Guard into cities. It could be the strikes in the Caribbean. You know, they've kept the legal ruling on that classified. And so some of the operators don't even know whether they're protected. And a lot of rank and file folks coming to us and saying, like, I'm worried. Could I be held personally liable for this kind of thing? So it was coming organically from people in uniform and in the intelligence community. And then, frankly, like, it's hard to do a veterans event without it coming up. I was in Kansas this past weekend, and I did a Veterans Roundtable, because I'm on the Veterans Affairs Committee. And it was going to be about the VA and mental health. And I mean, it really was about service to our veterans. And they brought it up with me, like, hey, I'm really worried that people are going to start seeing the military as the bad guys, as scary people. And I don't like what I'm seeing on my TV screen out of Chicago or anywhere else. And so we just wanted to, frankly provide a voice. You know, we haven't been able to have hearings on domestic deployments of law enforcement or the uniform military in the Senate or in, I don't think in the House either. So the basic oversight is not happening from these committees. And so we just wanted to send a message directly to people and didn't know, you know, Stephen Miller would want to talk about it, but, you know, that's how it came about.
Sarah Longwell
Well, you got a big Streisand effect from Stephen Miller because he called it an insurrection, which, you know, words have meaning. But I think he took it, or he was trying to take it as a way of sort of gaslighting people as you guys calling on the military not to follow orders from the president or that's coming from this administration. But, of course, the ad couldn't be clearer that you just say you're just stating the law, right? As it stands. So I assume you're not trying to try it and have an insurrection.
Senator Alyssa Slotkin
Lord, no. And as someone who barricaded herself in her office on January 6 when people like Stephen Miller helped incite an insurrection, it's a little rich coming from him. It's just literally citing the Uniform Code of Military justice, the law that governs the military. And everyone in uniform that I know gets training on the USCMJ basically as early as boot camp. I mean, early on, the law of war and the law of armed conflict and the rules around that. So we were just citing that. And then I think, just as importantly, it's not like this is a hypothetical, right? In the last Trump administration, then Secretary of Defense Esper, he writes in his book that when there was peaceful protesters outside the White House, the president told him to, quote, just shoot them in their legs, right. As a way to disperse them. That's illegal. Right. Shooting on unarmed protesters is not legal. And to the credit of Esper, he tap danced and pushed Trump away from that. So it's not a theoretical exercise that Trump might ask the military to do something that is against the law. He's done it. And people of principle push back. And so this was just basically saying, hey, you have a responsibility. You know, that we know this is hard. And we never want the military to be perceived as anything other than the protectors and the people who give us this life. And it comes from a place of love, frankly.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, I would say, on the average American's mind. I know because I listen to them all the time in these focus groups. They don't cite Trump doing something illegal with the military as one of their highest level priorities. Right. They're talking about affordability. They're talking about, I mean, almost entirely affordability, actually. It's just a category of affordability. It's affording their rent, affording gas, affording groceries. It's just usually some variation of that. But I think something has happened that Democrats are just starting to kind of shift in people's minds, which, because Trump won the popular vote, there was this sense that he. And he certainly talked about having a mandate, and it made people afraid. Like. Like maybe Trump was going to be in charge forever or there wasn't going to be a time when Democrats might be back in charge. Like, it seemed like for a while we were just living in Trump's world of having the American people at his back. And it's why everybody caved. Like, the law firms caved and the big media companies caved, and that's been so stressful for people that they think there's no one there to have their back when something scary happens. And you guys are basically putting up a bat signal to say, we are still here and you do not have to do this, and you can come to us if you are asked to do this. That sort of galvanizing people or reminding them that there are still checks and balances that exist, I think is deeply important. And I think people feel like that's been missing.
Senator Alyssa Slotkin
Yeah. I think a couple of things. One, fear is contagious, but so is courage.
Sarah Longwell
Sure.
Senator Alyssa Slotkin
And, you know, whether we're talking about the law firms, universities, private sector, you know, I think there's a lot of concern about, like, we don't want to pick a fight with this administration. We don't want the spotlight on us, and so we're going to keep quiet. And that's a way of fear working as a. As a weapon. Right. And if one company isn't willing to speak up, then another company is not going to be willing to speak up. But the reverse is also true, that when someone stands up and says, no, we're not going to accept what you're telling us, that can also be contagious. So I think it was just to send a message. I mean, frankly, I had some young officers contact me who, you know, all they wanted to be in their life was an admiral or a general and see themselves in the military for the long term. They love the military. Some of them I helped get into the military, and they were just like, am I going to be okay? Should I be thinking of getting out? And it's like, it just breaks my heart. I will say, though, you know, you watch a lot of these focus groups, my sense from just like, walking around in Michigan and now going to a bunch of other places in the Midwest is there is sort of a internal barometer or red line that Americans have for things that look and smell authoritarian. So I will have plenty of Trump voters who will tell me, like, I agree with Trump in principle on immigration, right, that people who are here illegally should not be here. But I don't like the masked officers grabbing people off the street or in a. Grabbing someone out of a nursery school class, you know, a teacher, you know, and people shouldn't be doing that to the people who, in my community and last administration, you know, people may have agreed with Trump again on immigration, but putting children in cages and separating families just struck a. A red line for people. And quietly, I think mood shifted on these issues. And I'm not saying there's anything more important right now than the affordability issues, because that's what's galvanizing people from Michigan to Kansas to New York to everywhere. But I do think that Americans still believe that that kind of authoritarian stuff is for some other country that's not us. And I don't like seeing things that contradict that idea. And I'm counting on that. I'm banking on that from the American psyche.
Sarah Longwell
You're absolutely right. We've done a number of shows on the immigration issue, and we've listened to Trump voters basically say, you know, we need to deport criminals. He told us he was going to deport criminals. This is one of those funny things where people kind of hear what they want to hear. So even though Trump was saying the whole time, hey, we're going to deport all these people now that they got the criminals pretty quickly, and now they're into just people who are in front of Home Depot looking for a job, or people who've been in the communities for a long time, or grabbing people when they're showing up for their weddings or to do something with immigration, and I know that's too much for People, for sure, but it's really when it touches them in some way, like when it touches their community. And I do think there's a reason the bottom's been dropping out with Hispanics who also want criminals deported, who also want a secure border, but they see ICE coming into their communities, dragging people off their bikes, you know, arresting people's parents while their kids are in school, going into schools. And everybody's like, this is too much. And so I agree with you. I think they often don't recognize it as authoritarianism. They just recognize it as, this is too far. This isn't what we do here. But it does take people sort of standing up on the other side to really. To also say, yeah, you're right, your instinct is right. That isn't what we do here. Right. And so giving them people that they can look to for that. All right, I want to move on, because the thing that had just happened was the shutdown. And we came out of the shutdown. I said at the top that you were one of my favorite Democrats. And part of it is that I got to tell you, when I was still a Republican back in 2000, 18ish. But I desperately wanted to beat Trump, there was this class of women that showed up in 2018, and it was you, and it was Mikey, and it was Abigail Spanberger, and you guys were all like helicopter pilots and CIA agents. And I, as a Republican who hated Trump, said, let's get all these women, these women right now. I want to see them. And I remember seeing you guys speak, I don't know, somewhere and being like, yes, yes, I could be in a party that had these people, these women. But I often think of those of you that ran in 2018, or that class, many of you, as moderates. But I know that that's not quite right. That's not quite the right way to describe you, because I also saw just now, I was very disappointed to see that it was people who were tagged as moderates were the ones who wanted to sort of get out of the shutdown, which was not your position. And I'm going to get your reaction on the other side of this. But I will tell you, from listening to voters all this time, Democratic voters want one thing desperately, which is they want somebody to stand up and do something about Trump. They want to show some backbone. They want to see some fight from people. And the cave, I knew voters were going to take it badly, but we were doing a main group. It just so happened we were doing some main Dems. And here's what they said about getting out of the shutdown.
Will Sommer
I'm really pissed at the people who caved in. Angus King and the others, all either not running, retiring.
Sarah Longwell
So the political fallout for them was less.
Unidentified Focus Group Participant
I have a couple thoughts on this. One is that the Republicans, we showed this, we were just coming across a decisive win in the elections. Trump's approval rating was worse than ever. And what we basically told the Republicans was that do whatever you want because the Democrats will always cave. So I feel like we just look weak to Congress, to the Congress, people who are fighting for taking away, you know, things that people need. I'm also very, very, very concerned now. I was concerned about the SNAP benefits. Don't get me wrong. I was buying groceries and dropping them off to my food cupboard. I was doing all of this stuff. I was very concerned. But I have the money, I have the ability to help people with food insecurity in my community. But I can't help with thousands of dollars of health insurance premiums that now people in my community are going to not be able to meet, or else they'll lose health insurance. And you know what happens when this many people in the state of Maine don't have health insurance anymore is that the hospitals are going to struggle. The hospitals in Maine, we're already seeing so many closures of clinics and hospitals, and we're going to see more. It's just going to compound. And then the hospitals that open are going to have worse and worse levels of care. It's just gonna steamroll and, like, snowball into this larger cumulative effect that's gonna affect major systems. And what we just told the Republicans was that, do what you want, the Democrats will always cave. And you know what? What somebody else said earlier, Chuck Schumer, he needs to step down. He needs to step down because either he doesn't have control over the party as the minority leader, or he was in agreement with this and they specifically chose people who weren't running for reelection. People can see through this. We can see through it, and we can band together as communities in Maine and help people with food insecurity. But there's no way that I'm going to be able to help people with health insurance premiums. We really gave up our power. That's what I have to say about that.
Unidentified Voter
I had to get rabies shots a few months ago, and I got a bill for $16,000, five shots. Rabies. Rabies is not something you can screw around with. And I had insurance, so I'm going to pay like Six grand out of five. I mean, if I have those numbers and I have insurance and I can certainly afford to make those payments, but I can't imagine someone who's going through the ACA marketplace and facing a bill like that, plus the ups and the premiums. You know, it's just unbelievable that people are screwing around with this.
Sarah Longwell
Is it safe to say you agree roughly with these voters?
Senator Alyssa Slotkin
Well, I certainly think they're picking up on the major issues, first and foremost on healthcare. I mean, I think we're not settled as a nation on how we afford healthcare. And whether that's going to be for 2026 or 2028, I think people are going to be looking not just to be playing defense and extending even the ACA for another year to just like, what is the way we fix the American health care system so that all people get access to care they can afford, but you also have choice, right? I believe in that. So they're picking up on that issue. And that's why I think for a number of weeks, we were successful in the shutdown, because we were united and we were talking about that issue that's so personal to so many people, including me. Look, I think whether it's the shutdown or the election that happened a couple days before the end of the shutdown, the message that the country is sending very loud and clear, whether you're in Manhattan or Kansas or Virginia or whatever is, number one, cost of living is the galvanizing issue of our time, the American dream and saving it. And then, number two, people want a new generation of leadership.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, they do.
Senator Alyssa Slotkin
And that doesn't just mean, like, there's a cookie cutter way to do it. What works in Manhattan is not going to work in Kansas, and maybe vice versa. But I no longer think the divide among Democrats, to your point earlier, is like moderate versus progressive. I think that's very 2019. I think the divide now among Democrats, senior Democrats, is, do you believe Trump is an existential threat and therefore we need to fight back, play some offense, or do you believe we can just wait it out, wait for the public to turn against him, just like in Trump won. Right. And I'm in that first camp. And I may have much more pragmatic views than a lot of people in my caucus. I come from Michigan. Trump won my state. I mean, I have a mandate to work across the aisle whenever I can, even if it's not fun. But do I believe we sit and wait for bad things to happen so that public opinion turns and we have no Responsibility to play offense in a strategic way? No. So that's the divide, and that's why you saw a lot of frustration around the shutdown.
Sarah Longwell
I'm very down with the Gerontocracy, which actually is a little bit unlike me, because I have sort of conservative bents where I like stability, I like people to have wisdom. But I gotta tell you, we are dealing with a technological upheaval and new challenges. These people were built and forged in a different era. And again, it goes back to one of the things I've always liked about a lot of the class that ran in 2018 is many of them were galvanized by Trump's arrival on the scene to begin with. And they don't carry around some of these same notions of, well, this is how it's always worked, and it always has to work this way. Like, there's just an element of, hey, you know what? If he's going to burn things down, we can build new things from here. Like, we can act differently. People are desperate for a vibe shift, a tone shift, and people use the word fight, but what they really mean is, like a steamroll. I hear steamroll a lot. That's a word you hear a lot from people that's like, why are we just getting walked all over? The Republicans are making fools out of us and they hate it. And so what is your plan for that kind of generational change? Like, there's a lot of people in the groups that want Schumer and Jeffries to step down. What do you do to kind of give the Democratic voters what they're looking for right now when you don't have actual institutional power?
Senator Alyssa Slotkin
Yeah, I mean, look, there's no doubt about it. We don't have the House and Senate or the White House, and so we're on our heels in that way. But I think, honestly, there's plenty of power in being a senator or a member of the House or a governor or whatever, and it's convening power. How do you bring people together around a strategic plan, get on the same sheet of music and then communicate that to the public? Because the thing I hear, you know, the second part of what you're saying is, like, what's the plan? Tell me what the plan is. And, you know, it's good to protest. It's fine that there are no Kings rallies, and that's an important part of American society, of showing resistance. But that isn't the only thing. If you look back at the brilliant movements of our past, it's when you Combine grassroots public pressure with a plan among leadership to push for a specific goal. Right. So that's the part that I think is still norming and storming. Yeah. Even a year later. And when I tell people, like, the reason why you don't know what the plan is is because we're still struggling on what that should be and getting consensus around that. And, you know, you mentioned it. You know, I don't think it's just like your age, although I take the point on tech, but I think it's about that ability to say, look, maybe in the Senate 20 years ago, this was the way we did business. Kind of very formal and, you know, back and forth and kind of collegial and very processy. You know, things like that. I've been here now 10 months. I wish that I had seen the Senate in that time, but it's not what it is today. And we either adapt or we fall by the wayside. And I think that, to me, is the biggest issue. It's not just a function of someone's age, because I know some members who are older, but they are, like, down to fight and have a plan. It's like, well, that's not how things are done, Alyssa. Fifteen years ago, this is how we solved this problem. And I'm like, I am so thankful you did that 15 years ago. That's just not the world we live in right now. We gotta have a. Fifteen years ago.
Sarah Longwell
Republicans kept their word. Like, if senators were negotiating, Republicans like, well, this is what we'll do. They didn't have a president who just did a rescission. Right. And basically was like, yeah, we don't care what we agreed to. I want people to operate in good faith. I was a big proponent of the norms and the values and all this stuff and not to give it up in Trump's first term. But I also think that this time, and the reason that people say steamrolled is people are just, like, desperate for somebody to understand, like, hey, look what time it is. As the MAGA people say, like, there's a new. A new way that things are happening. And I don't want to be in a downward spiral, but I also don't want people to keep getting steamrolled. But, like, what was the plan going into this shutdown? I do think part of the frustration was you guys got in. The shutdown actually was kind of working. You were winning. You get these enormous elections, you got these guys on the ropes, and then, boom, plug gets pulled on the shutdown. Why? Why not fight a Little longer.
Senator Alyssa Slotkin
Yeah, well, I, look, I was part of the group originally that was negotiating again my state. Like I was a federal government employee. No one enjoys a shutdown or you shouldn't enjoy a shutdown. And I think there were real things happening in our communities, like the cuts to snap, like air traffic controllers, like real things that were giving people legitimately real pause. But this group of people without an overall plan to get through the shutdown, you know, a coordinated House, Senate leadership on down plan, this group felt compelled to do something. Now, ultimately, I don't think the deal was one we should have taken, but I understand that sometimes states are different and that in absence of another plan, people are like, well, this is what I'm going to go for. And you're right. I think for many weeks we were succeeding and united and on an issue where people trust Democrats more than Republicans, which doesn't always happen. But again, in order to successfully navigate when you're in the minority like this, you have to have not just a week to week plan, but a way that you're going to come out of it. And one of the things that I did ahead of it was I had a little tabletop exercise, a technique we use in military circles on like gaming things out and you have different people play parts and like you game it out. And there was always going to be a very difficult path if we didn't go in with a clear plan that the entire caucus agreed to. And this is where like a firm hand and a firm strategy is still the thing that allows us to maximize our power. And we had a tough couple of weeks without that.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, because that's where leadership, the leadership of the party comes in. Okay, in closing, I'll just do one last thing. You've won a lot of tough elections since you first ran in 2018. In your statewide race last year, that was the toughest. That was like your old congressional district where, you know, it was like they went for Trump and you, you know, narrowly for you, narrowly for Trump. That is, it doesn't happen a lot of places. What if the last few years of these close run elections taught you about voters? Like, has anything surprised you about how these voters make these decisions?
Senator Alyssa Slotkin
First of all, I think politics has been changing about every 18 months in the United States. I think if you think you understand what happened in the last election, that's interesting, but it's not necessarily going to be instructive for the next election. And we're constantly trying to win the last election. I think that's number one. Even in my four elections that I've had, what we did in 2018 is very different from how we had to approach voters in 2024. I think there's so much noise that a lot of voters, at least in my state, are like actively avoiding news and politics. They recoil. So how do you communicate with folks who don't want to talk about what you want to talk about is a real challenge. And then I think sometimes elections are like vibe checks. I don't know many people who are going and looking up the 13 point policy plan that the Democrats have come up with to tackle this issue. I think they want to know there's a plan. But do you actually seem like someone who's going to fight for them on the issues they care about? And more often than not, that's like a vibe that they get. So those are certainly things that I've learned over time. I will say people are smarter than they're given credit for and they can smell when they're being messaged. You're watching 20 years of reality TV. They know when something's a talking point. They know when they're getting a line. I think the most common thing I heard in my last few elections was like, you just talk like a normal person. And I'm like, is a low bar man. We'll leap over that low bar. And you speak in complete sentences. You answer the questions that are being asked of you. So politics, I don't think is rocket science, but it is about whether people believe you actually give a crap about them and you're going to fight. And a lot of people miss that. And I think they think, well, I have to have the perfectly crafted answer. I have to have the perfect policy position. I can't tell you how many people come to me every day and they're like, you want to work on this? You know, wonky policy is the way to save. And I'm like, okay, but do you care about what they care about? Do they feel that they can identify with you at all? Those are important things that are kind of gut checks.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. I mean, when I talk to politicians and they're like talking about messaging or whatever, I'm like, just say it to me normal. Say it to me the way you would say it. Because it is like unlearning. This is another reason I get sort of anti gerontocracy thing is like they were raised at a time when, okay, politics is a profession. There's a way politicians talk. I have to learn how to do it. I have to have my talking points. There's gonna be three of them. Here's how I dodge. Here's how. And like, no, actually it's not just the reality tv, although I do think that's a part of it. It's parasocial relationships. It's the relationships we have on our phones. We're looking at screens and we're immediately able to sense whether someone's given us a line or whether they're telling us the truth. And so just say the thing that you think and people will resonate with that. And it feels like it should be easy for people to grasp, but it is a lot of unlearning of things to get people there.
Senator Alyssa Slotkin
Yeah. And just to bring it back to a point you made earlier, you know, about the class of 2018. We were this wave year. We were really big class, like 65 freshmen. We were the youngest class in history. I think the most women, you know, we had all the things. The thing that I think was the most important and you mentioned it, was it was the biggest percentage of any class who had never run for anything else in their lives. And, you know, I was one of those people. And we had to figure it out. And I had no unlearning to do. I just had to like, have coffee with people and get advice and discard some advice. And at the time I'm like, what am I doing? I don't know how to run for office. But looking back, I'm like, that's one of the best things that could have happened to me. And lots of other folks is don't get so sucked into the way, you know, this has to be, especially in the party machines. Right. In the either Democrat or Republican Party. Like, we didn't come up in this machine. And I think that was very, very important. And I think the success of people like Cheryl and Spanberger and others from that class and now we have a bunch of my classmates running for Senate in 2026. Like, I think that's not by accident. That just people who have had other jobs, real jobs in the real world and had to get things done on time and on budget is real different than from 22 years old working your way up the political ladder.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. Oh, there's a Michigan Senate race. Did you know that.
Senator Alyssa Slotkin
There are so many Michigan races? We have more open seats than we've had in 140 years.
Sarah Longwell
Wow.
Senator Alyssa Slotkin
Governor seat, obviously, Attorney general, secretary of state, House and Senate and Lansing. So 2026 is a big year in Michigan.
Sarah Longwell
You don't want to drop any endorsements, do you?
Senator Alyssa Slotkin
That's not how we do it. Typically in Michigan that's fine.
Sarah Longwell
It's like a totally unfair question. I know.
Senator Alyssa Slotkin
We just we have kind of a way. I'm following in the footsteps of Senator Debbie Stabenow, former governors, current governors. Like we just when there's primaries, we let those things play out. It's going to be competitive and I'm going to support whoever comes through these primaries.
Sarah Longwell
Well, you got a couple good people running, so either way, you're going to get a good person either way. Senator Alyssa Slotkin, thank you so much for joining us. And thanks to all of you for listening to another episode of the focus group podcast. We'll be back next week but in the meantime, look in our show notes for the Bulwarks audience search survey. It's going to help us make some important decisions as we roll into 2,026 but also go become a Bulwark plus member at the bulwark. Com and thanks for listening. See y.
Host: Sarah Longwell (The Bulwark)
Episode: S6 Ep12: Epstein Files & Illegal Orders (with Will Sommer and Sen. Elissa Slotkin)
Date: November 22, 2025
This episode is a two-parter examining two headline issues: first, the sudden political momentum behind releasing the "Epstein files"—and what focus group voters think about Donald Trump's hedging on their disclosure. Second, Sarah welcomes Sen. Elissa Slotkin to discuss Congress's PSA on refusing illegal orders in the military, lessons from the recent government shutdown, and what swing voters want now. Drawing on focus group insights, Sarah and her guests bridge voter attitudes with the tactics—and anxieties—of political leaders.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
Key Takeaways:
Notable Quotes with Attribution:
Discussion:
Predictions:
Summary:
Memorable Moment:
Voter Attitudes:
Focus Group Reactions:
Notable Quotes:
Slotkin on Leadership:
Insights:
Reflection:
“It’s like being annoyed with your best friend for canceling plans at the last minute.”
Sarah Longwell (09:26)
“If the files are totally released, there's too many people who are too powerful that would be exposed or create problems...”
Unidentified Trump Voter 2 (07:59)
“Fear is contagious, but so is courage.”
Sen. Alyssa Slotkin (26:51)
“We don't have the House, the Senate or the White House… but there's plenty of power in convening.”
Slotkin (38:51)
“Voters want to know there's a plan.... Do you seem like someone who's going to fight for them?... That's a vibe.”
Slotkin (44:18)
The conversation is candid, insightful, and at times darkly humorous. Sarah Longwell’s tone is direct and relatable; focus group participants range from exasperated, to conspiratorial, to earnest. Will Sommer brings both skepticism and historical perspective; Sen. Slotkin is practical and empathetic, emphasizing action and accountability.
This episode offers a revealing look at how grassroots voters process political scandal—and how those dynamics shape elite strategy. Trump voters, while aware and sometimes irritated by his hedging on the Epstein files, largely trust him or rationalize his choices—echoing years of scandal fatigue but also the resilience of personality-driven politics. On the Democratic side, frustration is mounting against party leadership’s perceived passivity (“the Democrats will always cave”); the internal push is now about fighting back decisively. Sen. Slotkin charts a path for generational change within the party, urging bolder strategy, more authentic communication, and courage in uncertain times.
Listeners get a behind-the-glass look at the actual motivations and opinions of American voters, as well as how those insights are (and aren’t) reflected in the halls of power.