S6 Ep13: Just Press The Deflation Button! (with Catherine Rampell)

Summary

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Podcast Summary: The Focus Group Podcast

Episode: S6 Ep13: "Just Press The Deflation Button! (with Catherine Rampell)"
Date: November 29, 2025
Host: Sarah Longwell
Guest: Catherine Rampell, Economics Editor at The Bulwark

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into how average voters—you guessed it, the people in those famous Bulwark focus groups—are feeling about the economy during the holiday season of 2025. Host Sarah Longwell is joined by Catherine Rampell to unpack the narratives, frustrations, and hopes American voters have about economic policy, inflation, jobs, and what politicians promise versus what they can actually deliver.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The State of Economic Messaging and Voter Anxiety

• Both Trump and past presidents (Obama, Biden) have struggled with "messaging" when voters feel economic pain, even if some statistics look positive.
• Politicians tend to overpromise on fixing the economy, especially regarding lowering prices—an unrealistic pledge.
• The focus group highlights a core issue: voters want prices to fall, but policymakers rarely explain that falling prices (deflation) typically signals severe economic illness, not prosperity.

Notable Quotes:

• Rampell (05:05):
  "It is really hard to put lipstick on a pig here, whether or not the pig is something you are responsible for. But the administration here has done a really lousy job."
• Longwell (07:03):
  "He [Trump] doesn't know what to do when it doesn't feel good to people."

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2. Trump’s Policy Challenges and Tariff Confusion

• Voters and politicians alike conflate the effects of tariffs, with many believing these will lower prices or generate revenue from "them, not us," when in reality tariffs often raise consumer prices.
• Economic pain from tariffs and external disruptions (e.g., supply shocks, weather) are felt at the grocery store, but the messaging from leadership remains muddled.

Memorable Moments:

• Rampell on tariffs (09:05):
  "There's a screw worm outbreak in Mexico that is reducing supply of beef... In addition to that, [Trump] is also tariffing those products. So, like, it's hard to fix high inflation if that is happening for geopolitical, climatological, whatever reasons. But at least you cannot make them worse."
• Longwell joking (11:29):
  "You take away the tariffs and the prices go down. Everybody's like, look at what Trump's doing. Look how he's reducing prices. Can you imagine?"
  • Rampell replies:
    "Whatever president put those tariffs in place. Must be a real doofus, huh?"

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3. Focus Group Voices: Trump Voters & Economic Discontent (12:30–22:32)

• Many Trump voters express disappointment that promised price drops haven't materialized, but still "want to believe" he can deliver economic improvement.
• Some are adapting to high prices by cutting spending, downsizing holidays, or rethinking lifestyles, but remain somewhat hopeful or at least resigned.

Key Focus Group Thoughts (13:17–17:29):

• "I want to feel less pressure on my day to day life. I want to not see everybody around me struggling with just necessities."
• "I blew through my savings just trying to maintain the same level of lifestyle... now things are a little better for me."
• "He needs to get those prices in check. That's what I think people voted for him. They cared about the egg prices. Gas prices. We need to get pricing under control..."

Expert Analysis:

• Rampell (17:42):
  "Trump promised [prices would go down] anyway. So if that is the standard, if that is the goalpost he has set, he is going to fail. And his voters, the American people writ large, are going to be in for some disappointment."

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4. Swing/Flipper Voters: Disillusionment and Changing Expectations (22:44–28:22)

• Voters who switched from Biden to Trump are less loyal and express sharper disappointment that economic slogans haven't matched reality.
• Discontent includes job loss fears, inability to buy homes, expensive healthcare, and skepticism that any politician can fix inflation.

Standout Voter Voices:

• "He said that he was going to bring down grocery prices. It's at all time high. Unemployment is an all time high. People are losing jobs left and right." (25:55)
• "But it seems like all of our money is going through these wars and nothing really for the American people. Like we can't buy a home. Health insurance is so expensive." (26:29)

Analytical Take:

• Rampell (29:23, 30:51):
  "Most of it is outside of [politicians'] control. And one concern that I have... is that politicians in both parties really are over promising so much in terms of what they can actually deliver on inflation, on affordability, that we're just going to be like stuck in this endless doom loop..."
  "Of course it's not a winning electoral message. And it's really hard to change the incentives, I think, to not overpromise."

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5. What Can Politicians Actually Control? The Limits of Policy (29:23–39:08)

• Both the focus group and Rampell agree: politicians have limited influence on prices and fundamental economic trends.
• Proposals like job creation are popular, but the mechanisms (public sector vs. private sector, direct/indirect stimulus, etc.) are complex and often controversial.
• Democrats especially are seen as needing "bigger, bolder ideas" to reach voters, but risk the same overpromising trap.

Memorable Quotes:

• Longwell (33:18):
  "Say you're going to hire a million new teachers... more nurses... more community cops... I'm like, just say you're going to hire a bunch of people at good paying jobs..."
• Rampell (34:29):
  "Well, there are limits to what they could do on that front too, right?"
  "Economists would say... you want to create the incentives so companies figure it out themselves..."

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6. Coming Data Lull and Economic Uncertainty (44:58–49:22)

• The episode notes temporary lags in official statistics due to government shutdowns, making it harder to get a clear picture of the economic situation.
• Despite ominous consumer confidence reports, layoffs in specific sectors, and concern over the impact of Trump immigration and trade policy, neither Rampell nor Longwell forecast an imminent recession but remain vigilant about risk factors.

Key Analysis:

• Rampell (45:51):
  "It's a little bit hard to say where things stand... there's a lot of uneasiness... based on the data that we do have, it still looks like we're adding jobs. It still looks like consumers are spending..."
• On tariffs:
  "That revenue I hate to break it to you is coming from you, the consumer and businesses that you work for. It’s not generally coming from foreigners abroad. It's tax money you are paying." (48:04)

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7. Holiday Spending, Mood, and the Political Economy (50:20–56:07)

• Focus group participants describe “tightening belts” for the holidays, increased cooking at home, and cautious optimism. Some are reducing spending or shifting to “needs” over “wants.”
• Despite these tangible cutbacks, stores and airports remain busy, and the American pattern of spending persists—but with more resentment over price increases and a sense of being let down by political promises.

Memorable Voter Lines:

• "I'm trying to cook every meal at home. That's the big thing I did this year... It's healthy and it's helping me financially." (50:51)
• "Everybody here looks tired. Our nation—we look tired." (53:56)

Expert Synthesis:

• Rampell (54:08):
  "People are gonna be spending money like they've been spending, but they're gonna be mad that they're spending money... They want those better deals. They want all of that. What was it, like, Trump said that you should only have two Barbies instead of 20 Barbies or something."

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Standout Moments & Quotes

• Rampell (17:42):
  "I'm here to break some bad news, which is that he won't. He cannot get prices down. That is just not something that happens..."

• Longwell (22:32):
  "There is a category of Trump voter that will go down with the ship. Doesn't matter if they are living on the street naked with no food, and the one thing they will have is a red MAGA cap, and they will tell you that Joe Biden destroyed everything and Trump is still doing his best to fix it."

• Rampell (33:18):
  "I don't know if you have a solution for, like, how to get us out of the doom loop. I would be glad to hear it."

• Longwell (56:07):
  "Well, this is why you don't overpromise to the American people. Because if you tell them you can do things that you can't actually do and they expect you to do them, they are going to be mad at you when you can't just be press the inflation button and make it go down."

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Timestamps of Key Segments

• Introduction & Catherine Rampell's Background: 00:51–03:43
• Economic Messaging and Historical Perspective: 04:14–09:01
• Trump's Economic Policies and Tariffs: 09:01–11:40
• Focus Group: Trump Voter Economic Sentiment: 12:30–22:32
• Focus Group: Voters Who Flipped to Trump: 22:44–28:22
• Discussion: What Can Politicians Control?: 29:23–34:29
• Job Creation Policy as a Messaging Tool: 34:29–39:08
• Holiday Spending, Consumer Mood: 50:20–56:07
• Closing Reflection on Political Overpromising: 56:07–56:49

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Episode Tone and Language

The conversation is candid, lightly humorous, and occasionally acerbic, particularly regarding political spin and the unrealistic economic promises so often made by both parties. Rampell brings in expert context but maintains a conversational, accessible style, blending seriousness with dry wit. Longwell grounds the discussion in real voter experiences and is skeptical about political messaging that ignores people’s lived financial stress.

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Summary Takeaways

• Voter sentiment on the economy is dour and heavily shaped by personal experience, not just by national economic metrics.
• Politicians habitually overpromise on economic fixes, setting up inevitable disappointment. One of the only things worse than "bad messaging" is a bad outcome voters feel directly in their wallets.
• Tariffs, while often presented as a patriotic or revenue-boosting measure, usually hit American consumers hardest—something even supportive voters struggle to understand, given political messaging.
• Job creation is a popular rallying point, but both parties have only limited and indirect tools to actually effect substantial, swift change.
• Despite frustration and economic anxiety, Americans continue to spend—especially around the holidays—but are more resentful and cautious, acutely aware that the reality doesn't match the rosy promises from on high.
• Overpromising by politicians not only fails to solve underlying issues but also risks eroding trust, feeding a "doom loop" of voter frustration and cynicism.

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Transcript

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Hello everyone and welcome to the Focus group podcast. I'm Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bull Work, and this week we're dealing with something that is on everyone's mind this Thanksgiving and Friday weekend, the economy. This was supposed to be Donald Trump's signature issue. People felt a lot of economic pain over the past few years, which we have chronicled on the show a lot, and they thought he did a pretty good job in his first term, and nostalgia for that was one of the things that got him reelected. Now many of them, even the optimistic ones, are wishing things would move along a little faster. As of this taping, Trump's approval rating is 15 points underwater overall, but about 21 points underwater on the economy, according to Nate Silver's aggregator. We're gonna talk about the overall health of the American economy because the economy is not just one thing and the voters we talked to knew that. My guest today is Katherine Rampel, economics editor at the Bulwark. Catherine, thanks for being here.

[B]

Absolutely. Thanks for having me.

[A]

I don't know if you know this, but this is like a bulwark hazing ritual for new people. You have to come on the focus group podcast and you have to listen to voters. How did that experience strike you? Was it great? Did you love it?

[B]

I hear from voters all the time on these kinds of issues, so I suppose it was not such an unusual experience for me, but it was like, interesting to see how they interacted with each other. I think that was newer for me because normally, like if I'm doing man on the street type interviews or people are emailing me unsolicited messages about how they feel about their finances or the economy, it's like a one on one interaction. So that was the newer piece of it.

[A]

That's interesting. Do you do that? You just stand out on the street and wait for people to walk by and say, like, hey, what do you think about the economy, how's it going?

[B]

No, I do not. But I hear from people who read my stuff, who see me on tv, who see me in these videos, they will reach out to me with their own views on what's happening in the economy writ large or their own pocketbook or complaining about electricity prices or whatever. In a previous life, when I was an economics reporter for the New York Times, which is years ago now, I did like, quote people, you know, like, I would be writing about Black Friday or whatever. And I literally went out to Macy's at 11pm and interviewed people waiting online. They were all Brazilian, by the way.

[A]

Interesting.

[B]

Yeah, yeah. Apparently people in Brazil, or at least the savvy shoppers in Brazil, know that, like, well, Black Friday is the right time to come to the United States and do some shopping and they don't have to worry about vats and various other things. So they come, they hang out at Macy's. I don't know if this is still the case. This was, like I said, like over a decade ago now, but I would do stuff like that, you know, literally stand out there interviewing the man and woman on the street.

[A]

Good old fashioned shoe leather reporting.

[B]

Exactly, exactly. Or like, if I was doing a random story about the job market, the unemployment numbers come out. I might connect with people who had recently become unemployed, either because they reached out to me, or I would connect with, like, various groups that advise people on how to file for unemployment benefits, that sort of thing. So it's like, not that unusual in my experience.

[A]

Yeah, well, those numbers don't come out anymore, so you can't do that Temporarily.

[B]

Temporarily.

[A]

All right. You wrote a newsletter recently saying that Republicans these days are falling into the same trap that Democrats did during the Biden years, trying to downplay the price hikes we're seeing. Is any administration with bad economic indicators doomed to fall into this trap? Or is there a way to tell a better story in moments like this?

[B]

It is hard, I grant you that. It is really hard to put lipstick on a pig here, whether or not the pig is something you are responsible for. But the administration here has done a really lousy job. I think since I wrote that piece. You may have seen Scott Besant, the Treasury Secretary, went on the Sunday shows and said, like, we're not going to tell people how to feel about the economy, however, they should be feeling better about it. And the same thing with the Agriculture Secretary, Brooke Rollins. She was on TV recently and said, I liked what my colleague Scott Bessant said. We're not going to tell you how to feel about the economy. But by the way, the economy is way better than you're saying it is. So it's hard, like, even without making that unforced error, I think, to get the messaging right when people feel pretty lousy about things, it's even harder when you are doing things that are partly responsible for how lousy they feel, like raising tariffs, for example, you know, but even if you're doing everything right, which is probably meaning you're not, like, doing anything at all, it's difficult. Like, how do you message your way out of it, particularly if the numbers are bad, like, if you are in a recession. Obama struggled with this, Biden struggled with this. Trump is struggling with this to some degree. Like, there just isn't a good way to talk about it. You can, even if you're talking about the progress that has been made. Like, this happened with Obama toward the end of his second term, where he was like, look how much better unemployment is and look how much better, you know, hiring is and all of that kind of stuff, and GDP is back and consumer spending is back. If people are still feeling crummy about things because, like, things are improving, but they're still much worse than they had been in relative terms, then they get really mad and they're like, why are you so tone deaf? You don't feel my pain, Blah, blah, blah. Biden did try at some point to do the, like, I feel your pain. Things are great, let's celebrate the wins, but we're going to work harder. But I feel like it was a little bit late because the Biden administration really did spend their first year denying inflation was a problem and telling people that they should get over it. So it was a little bit late. And they also, in my view, did some things that made things worse on the margin or at least refused to do things to make things better.

[A]

Yeah, I mean, I saw Trump tweet something or bleeds or whatever he does, where he was like, we need better messaging on the economy. And I do think Trump's finding himself in a difficult spot for him, where in the first term he just did have a better economy. Like, he inherited an economy that was doing well. And so what he was able to do at the time was not fabricate the notion that the economy was good, but what he did was he. He really pumped it up. Like, he was like the greatest. Best economy for black people, best economy for women. Hey, Buddy, how's your 401k doing? And he knew how to sell, celebrate the fact that the economy was good and make it a central issue about how you make like psychologically, like, oh, people feel like things are good. I'm gonna really lean into that. He doesn't know what to do when it doesn't feel good to people.

[B]

Yeah, exactly. And even if you look back at some of the times when he was like most effusively talking about the economy in his first term, he was talking up things that were good, but like, still not the best ever, if that makes sense. Like, he's a much better market. I'll put it that way. He's a much better marketer. Like, I remember looking at him bragging about the stock market and comparing stock market performance under Trump to stock market performance under Obama. And it was like way better under Obama. Actually. Now you could argue, like, was it starting at a lower base or like, whatever, doesn't matter. Like, Obama didn't know how to capitalize on that and Trump did. You give him a little bit of good news and he can make it the best news ever, whether or not he's responsible for it. In both cases, by the way, the president did not control the stock market. So it's not like marketing it better really means that they should get more credit. But whatever, this time around, he's struggling in part because, yes, there are factors outside of his control that have made, for example, coffee prices more expensive or beef prices more expensive.

[A]

Are those ones outside of his control? Those ones feel tariff related?

[B]

Yes and no. So there's stuff happening in those markets that has driven up prices. We've had a drought, for example, that's driven up coffee prices. There's a screw worm outbreak in Mexico that is reducing supply of beef. Those things are not Trump related. But then in addition to that, he is also tariffing those products. So, like, it's hard to fix high inflation if that is happening for geopolitical, climatological, whatever reasons. But at least you cannot make them worse. And this administration is, is definitely making them worse. And where I was going with that is that it's going to be hard for him to message on those things no matter what. It's even harder when he is creating like contributory factors here because people will be like, like you just said, like, isn't it related to the tariffs? Whether or not tariffs aren't like 100% responsible for the fact that these price high. You are aware of the tariffs. I don't know if you are aware of the drought and the screw worm problems.

[A]

And I wasn't this is the first time I've heard about the screw worm.

[B]

And, and probably that's true for most voters, too, but they've heard a lot about tariffs, in part because Trump talks about tariffs all the time and they know that tariffs do make the problem worse. So he's hurting his own reputation here and giving himself even more blame probably than he deserves, even though, like, he deserves some of the blame. Yes. So, yeah, he doesn't know how to message it. I feel like this is always the perennial complaint when you talk to comms people that they get blamed for poor messaging. And you've seen like, some reporting recently saying that Trump wants to shake up his economic messaging, but you can only do so much to spin a bad policy or a bad outcome. And here I think the issue is partly about the messaging. Like, there are probably less dumb things that they could be saying, but it's also really about the policy. There's just not a good way to talk about, you know, voters anxiety about the economy, A, but also some of the very dumb things that they are doing. B, you know, there's just not a good way to talk about the fact that tariffs are raising prices on stuff, especially as they are tacitly acknowledging that tariffs have risen prices because they are now repealing some of those tariffs specifically because people are mad about them.

[A]

You take away the tariffs and the prices go down. Everybody's like, look at what Trump's doing. Look how he's reducing prices. Can you imagine?

[B]

Can you imagine? Yeah, whatever. Whatever. President put those tariffs in place. Must be a real doofus, huh?

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[B]

Other people saying there's no end in sight.

[A]

And it's really sad seeing people not be able to put food on the table or afford anything for their family or struggling month to month with rent and just staying afloat.

[B]

Like people who used to have like.

[A]

Not luxurious lives but live comfortably are.

[B]

Now struggling to make ends meet.

[A]

And I was hoping a little bit.

[B]

That we would be in a better.

[A]

Situation now at the end of the year, but I still think that we're heading in a better direction. I just hope it speeds up next.

[B]

Year a little bit.

[A]

I think we're headed in the right track, but I don't think he's at a B level yet, except for all time highs in the stock market. But I see unemployment rates, I see just a lot of uncertainty about the economy again, a lot of ill effects from the last administration. He Needs to get those prices in check. That's what I think. People voted for him. They cared about the egg prices. They cared about, you know, gas prices. We need to get pricing under control. Second, I don't have the answer. I don't know how to do that. I think with the tariffs, yes, he's trying to have a more national presence. He's trying to not play nice with global economics. And I've gained from residuals. I could not afford a house right now. If I didn't buy in 2021, I could not afford a house right now. We did a huge Christmas last year, and I'm kind of feeling like I'm going to be winging it this holiday season because everything seems like even though the economy does seem strong, it seems like there's surprises left and right that you wake up one day not realizing something big is going on that can alter everything that you have planned for the holidays or even without the holidays being here just month to month. So I don't feel necessarily like down in the dumps about it, but I just feel like at this point, you know, I'm taking everything day by day and seeing, like, how the rest of the world is. Well, the rest of the country, I should say, how things are trending based off of it that way. We live in Maryland and we have a governor who believes in taxing everything and anything. Our gas and electric bills are now $850 a month, which is kicking butt. There are three of us in our house. We keep our heat down 61 or 63. When it's cold, the lights go out. We don't waste a thing. So that has changed our thoughts a little bit. We're doing experiences now. It costs too much to do other things. When I think about the previous administration, candidly, I blew through my savings just trying to maintain the same level of lifestyle. Things are going a little better for me. This administration, housing prices are insane. If you're a homeowner, especially in Southern California, while you're sitting on the gold mine, interest rates are down, stock market is doing fantastic. Financially, I think we're going in the right direction. They want to believe, Catherine. They want to believe.

[B]

Don't we all?

[A]

Yet, how did they strike you? Just when you hear voters talking like that, where it's like, no, we're going in the right direction, but things could be cheaper or better or I'm worried about Christmas.

[B]

Yeah. I think what was interesting is that there were a lot of references to promises that had been made by Trump. I think One guy said getting prices in check. There was a lot of talk about getting prices down. These are things that Trump said he would do, and it sounds like people still want to believe he will do it. I'm here to break some bad news, which is that he won't. He cannot get prices down. That is just not something that happens. He never should have made that promise. No president, however good, could get prices to go down. Prices really only go down in aggregate when the economy is very sick. So, like, we had outright deflation during the Great Depression, for example. Japan struggled with deflation in the 90s. This is something that happens when, like, the economy is collapsing, is doing really badly, and every business out there is basically putting stuff on sale simultaneously because they're trying to lure customers back. So outright deflation just is, is not a thing that happens, or at least it is not an outcome you should root for, as unintuitive as that sounds. But of course, Trump promised it anyway. So if that is the standard, if that is the goalpost he has set, he is going to fail. And his voters, the American people writ large, are going to be in for some disappointments. Disappointment. Now, if he had instead promised that he's going to create a lot of jobs and help people be able to get raises so that they can afford what they're already buying at the levels that they are already paying. It's a subtle difference in messaging, but that is more achievable. But he's not doing that either, Right. Instead, we have this sort of malaise that has been cast over the economy as businesses are really uncertain about investing, about hiring, about spending, about giving people raises. So you sort of have a fragile job market right now coupled with rising prices. And, in fact, prices don't go down. The best you can hope for is that they sort of plateau. And we're not seeing that either. We are seeing a pickup in inflation, partly because of these other idiosyncratic things that I mentioned, but largely because of tariffs. We haven't seen, like, a huge increase in prices, which I had been worried we might experience because of those tariffs. I think a lot of businesses are trying to hold off on raising prices too much in the hopes that the Supreme Court strikes down the tariffs, for example. So, like, they're passing on some of the cost, but it's not as bad as it could be. But to the extent that they're passing on those costs, it's still because of Trump. And he could abandon his trade wars. He could abandon, for that matter, his efforts to, like, Deport the entire agricultural labor force, which is also going to contribute to high grocery prices. He's not going to do that. So my question going forward for these kinds of voters is, like, how will they interpret those changes? Like, are they connecting the dots? I think that they are to some extent, but they still clearly seem hopeful that he will deliver on these promises that he made that, again, he cannot keep. And if anything, he is doing the opposite of what one would do if they were trying to keep these promises. And I just don't know how long they'll stick with him. Maybe at some point they'll recognize that he doesn't have the answers and stop supporting him, but maybe we'll move on to other things. I don't know.

[A]

Yeah, I mean, it depends on how the economy progresses. I mean, if it gets worse. Here's what I heard from those voters. These are people who are like Trump people, and so they're rooting for him, and they have a certain expectation of him that he was gonna be able to fix this. And when I hear them say things like, he's doing strong things internationally, and this is the crowd of people who wants to support him on the tariff idea. And so they're basically buying into the notion that somehow there is revenue being raised for the United States by these tariffs and that they're not the ones paying for them. Of course they are the ones paying for them. So, like, that's what they say when they're like, it's so it's strong internationally, but, like, I'm not really feeling it myself. Like, there is a category of Trump voter that will go down with the ship. Doesn't matter if they are living on the street naked with no food, and the one thing they will have is a red MAGA cap, and they will tell you that Joe Biden destroyed everything and Trump is still doing his best to fix it.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

That said, there is a large category of people, especially the Swiggier voters, who voted for Trump entirely because he made these promises entirely because of it.

[B]

Promises that he cannot keep, promises he can't keep.

[A]

They were fake promises. We knew that at the time. They were bs. But people were so desperate for a change that they went for. A lot of people were like, I don't really like him, but I think he'll do a better job on the economy. And that's the only thing I care about. So let's listen to some of those folks. These are flippers. They went from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024. We've talked to a lot of these guys over the last couple months, and these are the ones, like I said, who voted for Trump to improve the economy and they don't put up with as much as Trump's hardcore base. So a lot of the sound you're about to hear stretches back into October. But let's listen to what folks who are pretty disappointed sound like.

[B]

I see some positives, like different changes with men not in girl sports or being able to access girl bathrooms. Things like that really concern me. So I appreciate, you know, different changes like that. But the economy wise, definitely.

[A]

I personally been impacted, laid off from.

[B]

A job and I am working from home now. But even just trying to before, because I've been laid off for about two years before getting pregnant while I was like looking for a job, it was just so hard. And just trying to look into the housing market, it is unreachable.

[A]

Standards are definitely not realistic for the.

[B]

Times that we're in.

[A]

There's just been a whole lot of changes in not a lot of time. And, you know, inflation is kind of moving faster than cost of living for most people's jobs, which is kind of getting rid of the middle class in America. The haves and have nots basically is where it's going. And it's just creating an environment where, you know, people are on edge. Like, I'm paying a lot more attention to what's going on, you know, politically. I guess maybe there's something that happens as you get older too, but it just, you know, you just got to try to maintain, I guess, and get through and hope that the next election cycle that we can get some new blood in. And I gave him an F because the economy, inflation is high. He said that he was going to bring down grocery prices. It's at all time high. Unemployment is an all time high. People are losing jobs left and right. I don't like the fact that he brought in Elon Musk and he did this Dodge thing trying to cut costs of the government. When doing that, he laid off or slash, fired people. And I'm like, okay, so especially with the tyranny thing, everybody's confused. Nobody is sure what else he wants to do. Whether he's, is he really for, for real now or is he like going to change his mind tomorrow? So, and, and that's affecting, you know, our four 1Ks. You know, everything is going up and down and I think we need something steady. You know, you make up your mind and we go, right. I voted for Trump in 2020. Four because he was promising America first.

[B]

And that he was going to end.

[A]

You know, foreign wars and he was promising better economy. And it seems like all those promises have been broken. We're in a huge war, inflation is.

[B]

Still high, economy is bad, people are getting laid off.

[A]

And it's seems the whole country is like unsettled.

[B]

So originally I voted for Trump because.

[A]

He was working on making America first, making a better economy. That's why people voted for him, because the economy was bad under Biden. So we were hoping for a change. But it seems like all of our money is going through these wars and nothing really for the American people. Like we can't buy a home. Health insurance is so expensive.

[B]

You have high premiums.

[A]

When you go to the doctor, you still pay these high deductibles. There's not much benefits for mothers in this country for maternity leave. Trump said that he was going to do stuff for like fertility treatments and that was a lie. So it just seems like everything that he ran on, I don't see any benefits for the American people Now in 2025, I think this year, definitely spending less, trying to save more. I feel like a little behind in life, honestly, just from last year specifically, I felt like I had more disposable income by the end of the year than I do this year. For sure. I can't point to a specific item. Like eggs was a great example at the beginning of the year, but they've gone back down, so I don't know where necessarily. And I haven't changed my lifestyle really. I live in the same place. Calling all fun lovers and memory makers, Texas invites you to cheer from our stadiums and dance like no one is watching. Culture seekers can find the art that truly inspires. And from our shopping hubs to our chic boutiques, fashionistas will never leave empty handed. Texas is an unforgettable experience that's waiting just for you. Visit traveltexas.com and plan your trip today. Let's Texas VRBO. Last minute deals make chasing fresh mountain powder incredibly easy. With thousands of homes close to the slopes, you can easily get epic Pow.

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Book [e-mail] all right, so I want you to adjudicate an argument that I sometimes have with jbl. During the New Jersey election, he was complaining about Mikey Shiro focusing on lowering the cost of electricity and building housing, saying that's not something people in government have that much control over. Right. He was sort of making, I think, a point you kind of made earlier, which is there's only so much politicians can do, right? Like New Jersey's already quite dense. And so he's like, these don't feel like real promises. But in a world of perfect information, what parts of the economy should voters blame politicians for and which parts are just completely outside their control?

[B]

Most of it is outside of their control. And one concern that I have is reflected in something that one of the gentlemen in that sort of mashup that you just played expressed, where he said something like he wanted Trump to get into lower prices and it's not happening. And maybe the next time there's an election, we'll get some new blood in. I think that's the expression that he used. And they'll be able to fix it. And my fear is that politicians in both parties really are over promising so much in terms of what they can actually deliver on inflation, on affordability, that we're just going to be like stuck in this endless doom loop of people being pissed off about prices, voting the bums out, voting the out party in who promised to fix things. The next party that comes in can't fix things, and then you repeat the cycle over again and you're just like in this endless mad at the incumbents for not being able to solve a problem the other party says that they can solve, and then they can't solve it either. And you just like cycle through and cycle through interminably and like, you've seen versions of that happen in other countries, both promising to solve all of your problems and then they get in office and they can, and there's this like mass disillusionment and rage rather than telling people, like, let's temper your expectations, here's what we can do and here's what we can't do.

[A]

Oh, is that not a winning electoral message?

[B]

Of course it's not a winning electoral message. And it's really hard to change the incentives, I think, to not over promise. And you end up in like this arms race of bigger and bigger and bigger promises that cannot be delivered and seeking out new scapegoats for why they can't be delivered. It's obviously not because the politicians failed or because the thing was unachievable to begin with. And I Just it's hard for me to understand how you break that cycle and how you inject more like, rationality into it. Particularly since a lot of the kinds of things we're talking about are just not that intuitive. Right. Like you hear people saying, like, of course the President promised that they can get grocery prices down. Why can't they? Of course prices should come down. Why can't they? Again, it's like not super intuitive to go back and say, well, in the Great Depression, blah, blah, blah. Like, nobody wants to hear a lecture about these things.

[A]

That's true. They don't.

[B]

Especially with tariffs. Like, Trump says he's going to use tariffs somehow to get better deals to get prices down. Except tariffs raise prices. And even if you reshored a lot of economic activity that I don't think we're bringing back, like T shirt factories and things like that. But sometimes you hear this administration talking about that, it's not clear how that would result in lower prices anyway. Like, if you kind of think about any of this for more than 30 seconds, none of it makes any sense. And I've talked with people, I don't know if this is reflected in any of your focus group panels, but I've talked with people who have thought that the tariffs are about getting us lower prices on goods from abroad, which is not how it works. They're like, well, Trump says that they're ripping us off, so he's going to get us cheaper stuff. And I'm like, no, no, no, no, no. He's basically arguing the stuff is too cheap. Yeah. And he thinks it should be more expensive. And then they're like, well, that doesn't make any sense. And I'm like, I know it doesn't make any sense. You're mad about high prices. And he says he's going to get lower prices, but the thing he's doing is complaining about prices being too low. Like, it hurts your head if you think about it for too long. I don't know if you have a solution for, like, how to get us out of the doom loop. I would be glad to hear it.

[A]

Let me throw one thing at you. It's a pet thing. But yeah, look, I'm no economist. I'm not even adjacent to an economist, and I was really bad at math. But it seems to me that the one thing a politician can do is figure out how to create more jobs. Right. This is, this is actually rooted in some of my previous Republicanism. Whatever is I was like, job creation, job creation, job creation. It really matters. And getting people into good paying jobs. And if I were a Democrat right now and I wanted to end this, I would go big and bold. If I hear one more Democrat on a panel that I'm sitting on talk about like, well, I'm going to end the carried interest tax deduction or whatever it is they're saying, I'm going to close this loophole. I'm like, no. Or fine, do that. But like, no one cares. Say you're going to hire a million new teachers, say you're going to hire a million new nurses, say you're going to hire a million more community cops and more social workers. And like Democrats would do this thing where they're like, let me tell you about human infrastructure. And I'm like, no, just say you're going to hire a bunch of people at good paying jobs and those things are going to contribute to the overall elevation of society because we need more nurses and we need more teachers and these are the people who help America thrive and they're good middle class jobs and that's how we're going to rebuild the middle class. Am I smoking something? Is that.

[B]

Well, there are limits to what they could do on that front too, right?

[A]

Is there? Because Donald Trump just hired a gajillion ICE agents. They're just like, they're putting people in headlocks on the street. Not the immigrants, like just average people and be like, come, you're going to be an ICE agent now.

[B]

Well, Congress also gave ICE a lot more money to spend hiring people. Right?

[A]

Okay, well, they slept in on a big mandate next time because Trump's, you know, just junk to the economy. Like, shouldn't you use that to help stimulate jobs?

[B]

And no, traditionally the way that presidents talk about job creation is a little bit different. It's not like they're going to directly employ a bunch of public sector teachers and nurses and people like that, which would be, I think, the most comparable to the ICE example you just gave. It's more like we're going to create the structure and the incentives so that the private sector thrives and that they can hire more people. So for Republicans, that would be talking about tax cuts. And if they cut corporate taxes, then that's going to lead to a lot more hiring. And you know, I'm sure for some sectors or some companies that is the case that maybe, you know, if their tax bill is lower, then they feel like they're unshackled in some way and that they can invest in certain things. But including hires for Democrats, it's Lately it's been sort of this supply side progressivism concept. I don't know if you know what I'm referring to, but it's like if we have more childcare, for example, that will make it easier for parents, particularly women moms, to work and that. So it's not about like creating more job openings per se, but it's about making it easier for people who want to work to hold down those jobs. So that's more.

[A]

And making things like childcare more affordable. Because I will say this comes up in focus groups all the time where people talk about the trade offs. Oh yeah. I mean women talk about, you know, it just didn't make sense for me to work because childcare is so expensive. People are like making that trade off very actively now. You know, childcare is too expensive. I'm just going to leave the workforce.

[B]

Yeah. It's like, especially if you look at your post tax income, you might say, what's the point? All of my income is going towards child care. So I might as well just like take care of the kid myself rather than going to work every day and then outsourcing it to a daycare center or a nanny or whatever and coming out not ahead at all in dollar terms. So I think that's a problem that families have struggled with for a really long time. It's probably a more salient issue as you have more women in the workforce and families feeling like they need to work even more hours to keep up their current living standards, things like that. So I think this has like always been a challenge. I do think it's getting a little more attention maybe from both parties for various reasons. And there has been some progress on this front. Like New Mexico just announced that they were going to have universal child care. There's an effort in New York City that I don't know how it's going to work out to get universal childcare. So that is a thing that Democrats are running on, have run on and may continue to do in terms of like actually creating jobs themselves. There have been bills passed in recent years under Biden for example, to put more funding into some industries like the CHIPS Act. Right. That that would lead to more jobs at least in like the semiconductor industry, in the manufacturing industry. The challenge with proposals like that is, you know, government can make a wrong bet. Right. That they can spend a lot of money. Unlike with teachers like where you kind of know in your example you need a lot more teachers. Let's say you don't necessarily know like what's going to be the right technology for the government to invest in. So typically economists would say like, rather than giving out the money to directly hire people or giving it to specific companies, you want to like create the incentives so that companies figure it out themselves. And like there's like almost natural selection in the markets. Whatever is the best technology that ends up winning and that company ends up doing the hiring and the investing and all of that. So these are hard problems to solve. I don't think it's as simple as like I promise I will just spend a bunch of money and get a bunch of people hired. But there are other things the government can do like on that supply side of things and potentially on the demand side of things. And they can try to make people's lives easier at the very least by helping them with childcare, helping them with health insurance, helping them with some of these other big expenses.

[A]

I normally do have my sort of more center right job creation hat on, but I was trying to put a Democrats hat on and be like how would you address job creation in a way? Because I just, I get nervous about a government that is constantly over promising what it can deliver. And I do think much of this stuff is better left to the private sector. But I also think that Democrats are going to need some bigger bolder ideas and this sort of nibbling around the edges stuff that they do, it's not landing with voters. My place in tech changes every day but I don't fear the future because I'm with the leader. Pluralsight, their online learning platform has the hands on expert LED courses I need to master new tech skills and create bigger impact impact so I can learn quickly and stay ahead with pluralsight. I don't fear what's next, I embrace it. Tap [e-mail] and see for yourself. Hey, Ryan Reynolds here wishing you a very happy half off holiday because right now Mint Mobile is offering you the gift of 50% off unlimited. To be clear, that's half price, not half the service. Mint is still premium unlimited wireless for a great price. So that means half day, you know, give it a try@mint mobile.com Switch upfront.

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[A]

All right, there were some Biden to Trump voters so you just heard the ones that are expressing all their disappointment who have a more optimistic spin on the state of the economy. But Even then, they're often projecting into the future rather than saying things are good right now. So let's listen to the optimistic folks. Even though he is very like sporadic and does say some crazy things, I mean, for the most part, like he does stand on, on his business, you know, do I feel like things have gotten better since he's been in office? I mean, he hasn't been in there too, too long, but I don't think things have gotten much better. But in all honesty, I mean, even if Kamala was there, would it, would it be better? I don't know. Probably not. You know what I'm saying? So that's kind of my viewpoint. The state economy is not looking great, but compared to four years ago, this is a complete night and day difference. And we had the disastrous Biden economy. It was not looking good, especially after the pandemic. Well, the job market's not looking good because of AI and everything, but at least we're adding jobs. Unemployment is getting a little bit shorter.

[B]

I live in California where gas is.

[A]

I just paid 5:15 a gallon, so I'm not getting any relief due to our criminal governor. Especially in la.

[B]

I just learned that there's a pet.

[A]

Food store where you can go and they cook food for your pet. 15 bucks a meal and it's like erewhon for pets.

[B]

It's crazy.

[A]

I mean, so it's either people have.

[B]

Like unbelievable income in LA, or you.

[A]

Know, we're paying now for anyone who's afraid of ice. We're paying rent and we're delivering home cooked food from my taxpayer dollars and I'm getting nothing, you know, no police.

[B]

No water in my hydrants.

[A]

It's bad.

[B]

But I'm hopeful, I really am.

[A]

I mean, because the tariffs actually, which.

[B]

Is a very unsexy topic.

[A]

But you know, it's a very creative.

[B]

Idea getting money internally like Internal Revenue Service. His idea is we get it externally from countries.

[A]

So. But that's going to take a while for us to see the effects. Okay. And the other thing I really hope.

[B]

We'Re able to ramp up, you know.

[A]

We'Re crying over every single child rapist.

[B]

That has to leave the country here is that the mass immigration is really.

[A]

Putting a brake on our ability to be affordable. And hopefully as we ramp up the.

[B]

ICE agents and we get more people.

[A]

Out of the country, we already see.

[B]

The employment statistics where something like a.

[A]

Million Americans have been hired and then a million point six foreigners lost their jobs.

[B]

So I'm hoping.

[A]

But that's like six months.

[B]

Who knows a year, it's not gonna be immediate.

[A]

And that's what's so frustrating. Even I think Trump now is doing better for his first term. It was great, right? And then after the whole 2021 thing, and then now he got reelected. Things kind of seem like, you know, in the middle, like, it's on the fence right now. So we're just hoping to see, like, if things will get better. I think I'm relatively safe. Probably about the same. I thought, you know, a year ago, they started to get. I don't want to say get inflation under control, but at least you got used to it a little bit more. As I mentioned earlier, like, I've seen some prices go up and other prices go down. Gas is at least a dollar a gallon cheaper for me, and that drives a lot of expenditures. There are some groceries that have spiked. I think it was early in the year where it's like, oh, my God, eggs. And now eggs are back to reasonable prices. But there's still bits and pieces of things that are like, oh, they're a little more expensive. And so I'm not really changing my habits, not changing my plans. So here's my question. That one woman who had sort of the longer soliloquy, it feels like she's really hearing the economic messages of the Trump administration. When she's hearing J.D. vance say, I need you guys to be patient. So she's like, okay, I'm knuckling in here, but, like, what is the economic outlook for us heading in to 2026? And since you've written about it, Trump has made some changes at the agency is responsible for putting out economic data, as we were joking about earlier. So what impact is that have on what we know and how confident we can be?

[B]

We're living in sort of an economic data blackout now, and we probably will be for a little while longer because there was a shutdown, because government agencies that normally publish economic data and that also collect it were shut down. So that means not only were the things that were, like, in the queue and scheduled to come out in October, early November, either delayed for the most part. Those were just, like, delayed and have been. Have come out since then. But a bunch of things like inflation numbers or jobs numbers for October, nobody was out there collecting that information, doing the surveys that need to be done in order to get that information. So that stuff just gets canceled. And, like, there's just going to be a hole in it going forward, but it's resuming. Right. So we will have stuff come out later.

[A]

On.

[B]

So, you know, it's a little bit hard to say where things stand. There's some private sector data that you can look at that suggest that there's a lot of uneasiness. Like there was some consumer confidence data that came out Tuesday, the day that we're recording this, that was really dour. That suggests that people are very down on the economy. And like, the levels of some of these measures that we saw are about what you would see during a recession. So that's concerning. But based on the data that we do have, it still looks like we're adding jobs. It still looks like consumers are spending. We'll see how the Black Friday numbers come in. As much as consumers might be complaining about high prices and affordability and all of that, like, they're going to vote with their feet or their wallets in this case. And we'll see, like, are they actually spending the money? So, you know, I'm reserving judgment until we see those numbers come in. But there are a lot of things that I'm worried about. I'm worried about the tariffs, as I keep on saying. I'm worried about the impact of immigration policies not only on the humans who are being like kidnapped off of sidewalks, which is the most important thing. But you asked about the economy. All of that's going to have a huge impact on the economy. Not only ICE raids and CBP raids in neighborhoods and at workplaces, but also a lot of the people who are here illegally and working legally, they are losing their ability to work. They're being de documented, if you will. And that's going to have a big impact on the job market and on some of these sectors that we're talking about. Like a lot of people who are on a program called TPS Temporary Protected Status, they work in construction. Construction obviously matters for increasing the supply of homes and getting home prices down or getting them to stop growing as quickly. In any event, if you take away a lot of the workforce, what's that going to do to the housing industry going forward? So there are a lot of things like are risks going forward, even if the economy itself, I think is probably not in recession. Like, that stuff gets declared retroactively. But I think there are a lot of reasons to be concerned about the outlook going forward. And as we have been discussing the things that Trump and J.D. vance and others keep on telling people to be patient for, it's still not obvious like what the game plan is. Like, what is the objective with the tariffs. Is it about raising revenue? If so, that revenue I hate to break it to you is coming from you, the consumer and businesses that you work for. It's not generally coming from foreigners abroad. It's tax money you are paying. And to what end? What is the end goal here? It's not to get prices down. Maybe it's in theory to get some additional manufacturing here, but I don't think that's going to work. And it's probably not going to help the vast majority of Americans out there who do not work in manufacturing. Most people work in services. So I don't understand this message of just be patient. Be patient for what? I would find that more convincing if we understood what outcome we were hoping to achieve. And I don't know, instead, it's like all of these things that the administration is doing, I think, are just creating more cracks in the economy rather than moving us toward some glorious golden age that Trump keeps promising.

[A]

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Money where it matters. Federally insured by ncua. Well, you mentioned this about Christmas shopping and holiday shopping and Black Friday. And because it was the holiday season, we asked a lot of these Biden to Trump voters about their holiday spending plans relative to last year and whether the economy had affected that. So let's listen to how that sounded. I'm at home this holiday season. I bought an air fryer for Black Friday and I'm going to spend some.

[B]

Quality time with my air fryer.

[A]

You know, I'm trying to cook every meal at home. That's the big thing I did this year. Like, not even.

[B]

Not like I go out somewhere fancy.

[A]

To restaurants, but even picking up restaurants or whatever, I'm just trying to cook every meal at home. And it's really helping. It's healthy and it's helping me financially. And that's really, like, that's where I'm at and just trying to watch every penny. But, yeah, hopeful for the future and just. Just being tight right now and just watching my budget really closely right now. Very optimistic about Christmas and about the economy, but I think there are a portion of people out there who are experiencing some heartache and some shortages. So on the whole, you see store shelves, stock, and you see everyone buying things. So I don't see gas prices are a lot lower. So I think there's a lot less push on people than there were previously last year.

[B]

It's definitely looking a lot better.

[A]

It's a little easier with the money being a little more stable and everything. But with the way my family and everything's always operated, we've always been more about things you could use, like things you need type things, is how holidays have always been. It's not so much about, like, just like getting the newest thing or this, that the other, but it makes it a lot easier because, you know, things.

[B]

Are, like he said, back on the shelves, more affordable.

[A]

Well, I know for this holiday season, myself and my husband, we're not planning on spending, I guess you would say, like, how we did last year or years previous, just because we want to save, because just the state of where we're at right now as a country, like, we don't know what's going to happen. We don't know, like, if all of a sudden certain things are going to be taken away, like the company I work for, like, I don't know, contracts are going to be taken away. Like what my husband does, if stuff's going to be taken away because they want to have more shutdowns or what they want to do. And like, for us, we're just like, we have to think about our family and what's going forth and we have to save. And things are so expensive right now, too, where it's just like, we have to prioritize what we're going to do if something falls out underneath us the way it has for so many other people. I don't feel like the holidays are coming up. The state of economy is like. I feel like it's affecting the mood of the nation. For real? For real. Because Black Friday, all these things the holiday used to get us excited about. Being around family, being. But now it's like we over here talking about how what Trump done did, what policies and all this stuff. It's like, bro, everybody here looks like we tired. Everybody here looks tired. Our nations, we look tired. So it's like, I'm at a point now, whereas I don't. I don't know what to say anymore. So kind of a mixed bag there. And, you know, we look at the consumer spending reports, we hear voters talk like this. But, you know, one of the things that was true during Biden, this was always JBL's argument back to me when I was like, people are suffering. There's, like, a real problem with the economy and with jobs and with prices. And he would be like, airports are full. Disneyland's full. People are still out there doing everything. What do you think's going to happen this holiday season? Do you think it's going to be sad Christmas, or do you think people are just gonna, like, blow it out like they always do because this is America?

[B]

I think it's a little bit of both. I think that people are gonna be spending money like they've been spending, but they're gonna be mad that they're spending money like they want those better deals. They want all of that. What was it like, Trump said that you should only have two Barbies instead of 20 Barbies or something. So, like, people are gonna be like, I can't believe I spent so much on two Barbies when I should have gotten 20, you know, for this amount of money. So I think that people are still going to keep spending. It is the American consumer, after all. And again, the economy has not crashed. People do have income, but they're going to be really resentful of it because they have been promised again and again that prices are going down and that those tariffs are somehow going to translate into lower prices or whatever else it is that Trump is doing is going to translate into lower prices. Yeah, I mean, I heard the Biden administration complain about this all the time. They would, like, grumble, you know, never on the record, of course, about how consumer sentiment numbers were so terrible. But people didn't really mean it. They must not have really meant it, because the consumer spending numbers were still so strong. And if people were, like, really felt that badly, then why would they keep spending? And I think those things can all coexist, right? Like, people can be mad that prices are going up, particularly if they're like, well, I can afford it because I got a raise, but that's effectively robbing me of my raise. Like, my raise should be allowing me to get even more stuff to increase my standard of living and instead I'm stagnating. So, like, there was a lot of frustration politically with all of this, but I think it's reasonable for people to be annoyed that their raise isn't translating into more Barbie dolls or a bigger house or not feeling as cash strapped by that family vacation that they have planned.

[A]

Well, this is why you don't over promise to the American people. Because if you tell them you can do things that you can't actually do and they expect you to do them, they are going to be mad at you when you can't just be press the inflation button and make it go down. Okay. Katherine Rampel, thank you so much for joining us. And thanks to all of you for listening to another episode of the focus group podcast. We'll be back next week, but in the meantime, remember to rate and review us on Apple podcasts, subscribe to the Bulwark on YouTube and become a Bulwark plus member at thebullwerk.com and speaking of holiday shopping, go get your Bulwark bestie some Bulwark merch. We got new stuff. It's cool. I love it.

[B]

Oh, I've meant to wear my hat. I love my hat.

[A]

Yeah, the hat's great.

[B]

Yeah, the hats are awesome. I mean, I don't really need to wear it indoors, but like, I wear it outside all the time. Yeah, I promise, of course I'll wear it on the next pod new merch.

[A]

That's what you should spend your hard earned dollars on. Okay, guys, thank you so much. Thanks, Katherine. We'll catch you next time. Meet Olivia.

[B]

Hey, what's up?

[A]

Olivia dreams big.

[B]

I want to go back to school and get a pet and buy a house and save for retirement and travel the world.

[A]

That's quite the list. Thank you. Numerica Credit Union is the perfect partner to help turn Olivia's dreams into reality.

[B]

Really?

[A]

Yep. We're all about helping our members create a life that feels like theirs. And we have the tools, expertise, and guidance to make it happen.

[B]

I'm in. Let's get started.

[A]

Numerica Credit Union Money where it matters. Federally insured by ncua.

[B]

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