Podcast Summary: The Focus Group Podcast

Episode: S6 Ep13: "Just Press The Deflation Button! (with Catherine Rampell)"
Date: November 29, 2025
Host: Sarah Longwell
Guest: Catherine Rampell, Economics Editor at The Bulwark

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into how average voters—you guessed it, the people in those famous Bulwark focus groups—are feeling about the economy during the holiday season of 2025. Host Sarah Longwell is joined by Catherine Rampell to unpack the narratives, frustrations, and hopes American voters have about economic policy, inflation, jobs, and what politicians promise versus what they can actually deliver.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The State of Economic Messaging and Voter Anxiety

• Both Trump and past presidents (Obama, Biden) have struggled with "messaging" when voters feel economic pain, even if some statistics look positive.
• Politicians tend to overpromise on fixing the economy, especially regarding lowering prices—an unrealistic pledge.
• The focus group highlights a core issue: voters want prices to fall, but policymakers rarely explain that falling prices (deflation) typically signals severe economic illness, not prosperity.

Notable Quotes:

• Rampell (05:05):
  "It is really hard to put lipstick on a pig here, whether or not the pig is something you are responsible for. But the administration here has done a really lousy job."
• Longwell (07:03):
  "He [Trump] doesn't know what to do when it doesn't feel good to people."

2. Trump’s Policy Challenges and Tariff Confusion

• Voters and politicians alike conflate the effects of tariffs, with many believing these will lower prices or generate revenue from "them, not us," when in reality tariffs often raise consumer prices.
• Economic pain from tariffs and external disruptions (e.g., supply shocks, weather) are felt at the grocery store, but the messaging from leadership remains muddled.

Memorable Moments:

• Rampell on tariffs (09:05):
  "There's a screw worm outbreak in Mexico that is reducing supply of beef... In addition to that, [Trump] is also tariffing those products. So, like, it's hard to fix high inflation if that is happening for geopolitical, climatological, whatever reasons. But at least you cannot make them worse."
• Longwell joking (11:29):
  "You take away the tariffs and the prices go down. Everybody's like, look at what Trump's doing. Look how he's reducing prices. Can you imagine?"
  • Rampell replies:
    "Whatever president put those tariffs in place. Must be a real doofus, huh?"

3. Focus Group Voices: Trump Voters & Economic Discontent (12:30–22:32)

• Many Trump voters express disappointment that promised price drops haven't materialized, but still "want to believe" he can deliver economic improvement.
• Some are adapting to high prices by cutting spending, downsizing holidays, or rethinking lifestyles, but remain somewhat hopeful or at least resigned.

Key Focus Group Thoughts (13:17–17:29):

• "I want to feel less pressure on my day to day life. I want to not see everybody around me struggling with just necessities."
• "I blew through my savings just trying to maintain the same level of lifestyle... now things are a little better for me."
• "He needs to get those prices in check. That's what I think people voted for him. They cared about the egg prices. Gas prices. We need to get pricing under control..."

Expert Analysis:

• Rampell (17:42):
  "Trump promised [prices would go down] anyway. So if that is the standard, if that is the goalpost he has set, he is going to fail. And his voters, the American people writ large, are going to be in for some disappointment."

4. Swing/Flipper Voters: Disillusionment and Changing Expectations (22:44–28:22)

• Voters who switched from Biden to Trump are less loyal and express sharper disappointment that economic slogans haven't matched reality.
• Discontent includes job loss fears, inability to buy homes, expensive healthcare, and skepticism that any politician can fix inflation.

Standout Voter Voices:

• "He said that he was going to bring down grocery prices. It's at all time high. Unemployment is an all time high. People are losing jobs left and right." (25:55)
• "But it seems like all of our money is going through these wars and nothing really for the American people. Like we can't buy a home. Health insurance is so expensive." (26:29)

Analytical Take:

• Rampell (29:23, 30:51):
  "Most of it is outside of [politicians'] control. And one concern that I have... is that politicians in both parties really are over promising so much in terms of what they can actually deliver on inflation, on affordability, that we're just going to be like stuck in this endless doom loop..."
  "Of course it's not a winning electoral message. And it's really hard to change the incentives, I think, to not overpromise."

5. What Can Politicians Actually Control? The Limits of Policy (29:23–39:08)

• Both the focus group and Rampell agree: politicians have limited influence on prices and fundamental economic trends.
• Proposals like job creation are popular, but the mechanisms (public sector vs. private sector, direct/indirect stimulus, etc.) are complex and often controversial.
• Democrats especially are seen as needing "bigger, bolder ideas" to reach voters, but risk the same overpromising trap.

Memorable Quotes:

• Longwell (33:18):
  "Say you're going to hire a million new teachers... more nurses... more community cops... I'm like, just say you're going to hire a bunch of people at good paying jobs..."
• Rampell (34:29):
  "Well, there are limits to what they could do on that front too, right?"
  "Economists would say... you want to create the incentives so companies figure it out themselves..."

6. Coming Data Lull and Economic Uncertainty (44:58–49:22)

• The episode notes temporary lags in official statistics due to government shutdowns, making it harder to get a clear picture of the economic situation.
• Despite ominous consumer confidence reports, layoffs in specific sectors, and concern over the impact of Trump immigration and trade policy, neither Rampell nor Longwell forecast an imminent recession but remain vigilant about risk factors.

Key Analysis:

• Rampell (45:51):
  "It's a little bit hard to say where things stand... there's a lot of uneasiness... based on the data that we do have, it still looks like we're adding jobs. It still looks like consumers are spending..."
• On tariffs:
  "That revenue I hate to break it to you is coming from you, the consumer and businesses that you work for. It’s not generally coming from foreigners abroad. It's tax money you are paying." (48:04)

7. Holiday Spending, Mood, and the Political Economy (50:20–56:07)

• Focus group participants describe “tightening belts” for the holidays, increased cooking at home, and cautious optimism. Some are reducing spending or shifting to “needs” over “wants.”
• Despite these tangible cutbacks, stores and airports remain busy, and the American pattern of spending persists—but with more resentment over price increases and a sense of being let down by political promises.

Memorable Voter Lines:

• "I'm trying to cook every meal at home. That's the big thing I did this year... It's healthy and it's helping me financially." (50:51)
• "Everybody here looks tired. Our nation—we look tired." (53:56)

Expert Synthesis:

• Rampell (54:08):
  "People are gonna be spending money like they've been spending, but they're gonna be mad that they're spending money... They want those better deals. They want all of that. What was it, like, Trump said that you should only have two Barbies instead of 20 Barbies or something."

Standout Moments & Quotes

• Rampell (17:42):
  "I'm here to break some bad news, which is that he won't. He cannot get prices down. That is just not something that happens..."

• Longwell (22:32):
  "There is a category of Trump voter that will go down with the ship. Doesn't matter if they are living on the street naked with no food, and the one thing they will have is a red MAGA cap, and they will tell you that Joe Biden destroyed everything and Trump is still doing his best to fix it."

• Rampell (33:18):
  "I don't know if you have a solution for, like, how to get us out of the doom loop. I would be glad to hear it."

• Longwell (56:07):
  "Well, this is why you don't overpromise to the American people. Because if you tell them you can do things that you can't actually do and they expect you to do them, they are going to be mad at you when you can't just be press the inflation button and make it go down."

Timestamps of Key Segments

• Introduction & Catherine Rampell's Background: 00:51–03:43
• Economic Messaging and Historical Perspective: 04:14–09:01
• Trump's Economic Policies and Tariffs: 09:01–11:40
• Focus Group: Trump Voter Economic Sentiment: 12:30–22:32
• Focus Group: Voters Who Flipped to Trump: 22:44–28:22
• Discussion: What Can Politicians Control?: 29:23–34:29
• Job Creation Policy as a Messaging Tool: 34:29–39:08
• Holiday Spending, Consumer Mood: 50:20–56:07
• Closing Reflection on Political Overpromising: 56:07–56:49

Episode Tone and Language

The conversation is candid, lightly humorous, and occasionally acerbic, particularly regarding political spin and the unrealistic economic promises so often made by both parties. Rampell brings in expert context but maintains a conversational, accessible style, blending seriousness with dry wit. Longwell grounds the discussion in real voter experiences and is skeptical about political messaging that ignores people’s lived financial stress.

Summary Takeaways

• Voter sentiment on the economy is dour and heavily shaped by personal experience, not just by national economic metrics.
• Politicians habitually overpromise on economic fixes, setting up inevitable disappointment. One of the only things worse than "bad messaging" is a bad outcome voters feel directly in their wallets.
• Tariffs, while often presented as a patriotic or revenue-boosting measure, usually hit American consumers hardest—something even supportive voters struggle to understand, given political messaging.
• Job creation is a popular rallying point, but both parties have only limited and indirect tools to actually effect substantial, swift change.
• Despite frustration and economic anxiety, Americans continue to spend—especially around the holidays—but are more resentful and cautious, acutely aware that the reality doesn't match the rosy promises from on high.
• Overpromising by politicians not only fails to solve underlying issues but also risks eroding trust, feeding a "doom loop" of voter frustration and cynicism.