Podcast Summary: The Focus Group Podcast
Episode: S6 Ep14 – (Focus) Group Therapy (with Astead Herndon)
Date: December 6, 2025
Host: Sarah Longwell (The Bulwark)
Guest: Astead Herndon (Vox, formerly The New York Times)
Overview
In this episode, Sarah Longwell sits down with journalist Astead Herndon to unpack voter disillusionment with politics, emerging realignments within both parties, and the tension between political insiders and disaffected voters. They dive deep into recent focus groups, especially Biden-Trump swing voters, and use the 2026 Maine Senate Democratic primary as a case study for trends around generational change, expectations of authenticity, and the desire for political reform.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Why Listen to Voters?
- Both Sarah and Astead share the value of focus groups in revealing what polling misses: the why behind voter attitudes.
- Sarah (04:39): “One thing that people who listen to this podcast...can say is that they're never surprised about the outcome, because we do hear it all.”
- Astead (04:00): “Getting to that point requires those kind of interpersonal focus group, individual interviews...really round out the picture.”
2. Disaffection and Distrust in Politics
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Voters consistently show deep frustration: gridlock, corruption, and self-dealing by elites in both parties.
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Focus group clips (11:22–13:43) capture this rawness:
- “It seemed like we’re kind of governed by a bunch of man-children...bunch of finger pointing...we're the ones that suffer.” (11:22)
- “At the end of the day, these parties don't do anything for the American people...They don't care about us. And like I don't even bother voting.” (12:21)
- Concerns about family separation, SNAP cuts, and politicians prioritizing other countries’ needs over Americans.
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Astead (14:44): Discusses the unique nature of “double-hater” swing voters—those who don’t fit as centrists but see both parties as complicit in a broken system.
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Both hosts note Trump’s appeal as a rule-breaker and outsider, but frustrations when perceived to be “just as bad.”
3. Media Diets and Political Information
- Many disaffected voters are not “news seekers” but “news receivers” (19:55). They absorb info passively via algorithms, quick flashes of narrative, and cultural osmosis, missing nuance or critical assessment.
4. Trump’s Mythology and Fractures
- Sarah (20:39): “Trump has had a parasocial relationship with people for like 20 years. They know him...it’s the devil I know versus devil I don't.”
- Hispanic and working-class voters credit Trump for promises on the economy—but their patience is waning as kitchen-table problems persist.
- Astead (22:52) brings up the impact of the Epstein scandal: a rare issue where Trump is seen as “obviously siding with the rich,” puncturing his anti-elite myth.
- “I think it has really punctured some of the myth of his distance from the elite class, you know.” (23:01)
5. What Do Voters Want? Reform and Accountability
- More focus group voices (26:12–28:22):
- Universal healthcare (not “Obamacare” but what Congress gets)
- Term limits, bans on congressional stock trading
- More transparency and less influence of money in campaigns
- Less gerontocracy—desire for younger leadership and turnover
- Sarah (29:07): Explains how many voters saw Trump’s wealth as making him “uncorruptible.”
- Astead (29:18): Notes, “This version of the Republican Party is a little less Chamber of Commerce...Trump has blown stuff up.”
6. Process Reform and Broken Institutions
- Astead (31:35): “Public financing of elections...ranked choice voting...did create a different willingness to create coalitions...helped a group of people do their ‘anyone but Cuomo’ slate.”
- Problem: Democratic Party often seen as defending outdated norms and institutions—confusing “defending democracy” with defending the status quo (33:14–34:56).
- Astead: “I would talk about improving democracy...[not] defending the status quo.”
7. Maine 2026: Generational Tension and Authenticity
- The Democratic Senate primary between Governor Janet Mills, age 79 (institutional favorite), and progressive ex-Marine Graham Platner (charismatic but with controversial history) illustrates the moment’s dilemmas.
- Voters gravitate toward Platner for his energy, social-media presence, and “fighter” persona—despite “mudslinging, tattoos and the Reddit comments” (40:31–43:51).
- Many describe forgiving his past due to perceived authenticity and directness; “authenticity” matters more than a curated history.
- Astead (44:14): “The bottom fell out of people's relationship with party establishment...the fact that he's running a modern campaign is just as important as how old he is.”
- “The point is to change the party” — the logic learned from Tea Party and MAGA movements, now mirrored among Dems.
- On Mills: deep respect and appreciation but a belief it’s “time to retire.”
- “Let’s throw this man a retirement party...he’s been great for the party, but he’s too old to run again.” (60:35)
- The question is less purely age than message and energy.
8. Party Fights and Policy Resets Ahead
- Both hosts believe upcoming midterms may benefit Democrats due to backlash against Trump, but unresolved policy fights (healthcare, immigration) will reemerge in the 2028 cycle.
- Astead (61:43): “But the question of midterms is very separate from the vision fight that will define the presidential primary.”
- He predicts “palpable urgency” around healthcare, affordability, education, homelessness—issues that do not get enough policy airtime but are top-of-mind for voters.
Notable Quotes & Moments
| Timestamp | Quote (Speaker) | |------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 04:00 | “I can get a top line number. But the why behind it ... requires those kind of interpersonal focus group, individual interviews.” (Astead Herndon) | | 13:43 | “Pox on both their houses... voters who see Trump as transcending partisan politics in some way... He’s as mad about things as we are.” (Sarah Longwell) | | 22:52 | “There’s very few issues that make Donald Trump look inauthentic and that make him side with the rich insiders... Epstein is a really clear one.” (Astead Herndon) | | 29:07 | “Average voters think that because Trump came in so rich, people couldn’t buy him off...he'd blow it up.” (Sarah) | | 37:01 | “They have matched or even bested Republicans in short-term tactics... but it’s not as if that answers the broader question of an unequal democracy that is growing more so.” (Astead) | | 44:14 | “I really think the bottom fell out of people’s relationship with party establishment … running a modern campaign is just as important as how old he is.” (Astead) | | 49:23 | “They’re not gonna tell me what policy she likes. They’re gonna be like, I don’t know, she’s on TV saying that these guys are awful.” (Sarah) | | 60:35 | “Let’s throw this man a retirement party. Let’s give him a gold watch. He’s been great for the party, but he’s too old to run again.” (Sarah) | | 64:19 | “Democrats are going to have to rediscover how to be a party for the middle class... voters are in the mood for politicians that are going to take big swings at the affordability questions.” (Sarah) |
Important Segment Timestamps
- Voter Disaffection & Focus Group Clips: 11:22–13:43
- Disaffected/Double Hater Voter Analysis: 14:44–19:22
- Trump’s Parasocial Power and the Economy: 19:54–23:54
- Voters’ Reform Wishlist (term limits, healthcare, etc.): 26:12–28:22
- Maine Primary Discussion (Platner vs. Mills): 39:02–52:35
- Party Process, Authenticity, Modern Campaigns: 51:47–53:17
- Mills, Age & Generational Change: 57:54–60:35
- Looking Ahead to 2026/2028 Fights: 61:43–66:09
Conclusion
This episode captures the profound skepticism and reformist desire running through the American electorate, especially among swing voters and Democratic base voters. Voters crave change, authenticity, and leaders who engage directly with their frustrations rather than simply defending institutions. The Maine Senate race becomes a prism: tradition vs. transformation, tested experience vs. energetic authenticity. Both Sarah and Astead suggest that the future lies with political figures who are aggressive communicators, unafraid to break the consultant mold, and who bring forward-looking, inclusive reforms—no longer leaning on inevitability or establishment craft alone.
For listeners: The shifting mood among voters means today’s political “safe bets” may quickly become tomorrow’s relics, and authenticity—even with rough edges—is often more appealing than perfection.