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Hello everyone and welcome to the Focus Group Podcast. I'm Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark, and this week I want to check in on something that has run through most of our focus groups over the last, you know, seven or so years that I've been doing these. And that is people's disaffection with everything remotely connected to the political process. When my team shows up to do a focus group, we are jonesing always to talk about politics. But as we're going to hear today, some of the people in the focus groups would rather be getting a root canal, which is something that they tell us rather than talking about politics. So you're going to hear from some of those voters today and we're going to preview one of the big Democratic proxy wars of 2026, the main Senate race. My guest today, a favorite of regular focus group POD listeners, has been all over this beat Estad Herndon, host and editorial director at Vox and Previously host of the New York Times political podcast the Run up, which is what you were doing last time I talked to you, which was like a year ago.
B
Yeah, exactly. I'm happy to be here and I'm excited for this topic too.
A
Yeah. How are you liking Vox?
B
It's been fun. It's only been like a month or so, but we're building towards launching a show and over the spring. And I also think that it helps put me in our modern media environment. So, you know, the Run up was super fun, but I also was doing one narrative podcast a week. I think that this will put me in more places and I think to the type of people I like talking to will reach them more easily. So I'm pumped about taking the lens that has informed my work to a long time and actually matching it with, I think, a language of informality and I think a language of the Internet that I think will help it.
A
Cool. And so sorry I interrupted you. You're excited to be back. Why?
B
On focus group?
A
Yeah.
B
Oh, because it's fun. I don't know. Like, I feel like you all talk to the type of people I like talking to. Anything that, like, deals with the gaps in our political system and kind of where electorate and regular people are coming from and don't feel reflected, you know, that's my jam. So I'm happy to do it.
A
I know. This is why I love having you on, because speaking of root canals, I'll tell you, there are a lot of political analysts who. And I'm like, no, you've got to listen to a few hours of voters. They're like, no, don't make me. Which, incidentally, people who listen to this podcast also sometimes are like, why do I have to listen to voters? And I keep saying, because it's important. This is how we understand each other. It's how we come to know each other. It's how we understand our politics. Democracy is in fact, just a collection of voters, truly.
B
And I think it helps me know kind of things that even straight polling can't tell me. So I think that I. I can get a top line number. But the why behind it, the kind of reasons why people come to it, the kind of points in their lives that inform them. Getting to that point requires those kind of interpersonal focus group, individual interviews. And so I like it in combination with the numbers to, I think, really round out the picture. And so when people are kind of wanting to be distant from that, it feels to me like you're going to be only reacting after Election Day, you know, when we get the new data dump, when we get the new information, folks are just reacting from it. They'll never be proactive because they're not living in the places where people are.
A
That's right. And I got to tell you, I mean, you can say a lot of things. There's people who are like, I have to eat these vegetables, you know, of. Of listening to these voters. But one thing that people who listen to this podcast, I think can say is that they're never surprised about the outcome, because we do hear it all. We hear who the people are who are going to make up these electorates.
B
This is what I tell people. I'm like, I really wish that for political media, our goal would be the step back, I think, from folks who are still doing that kind of prediction and to construct work where that you come into election day ready for any result. And so that's what I think is helpful about talking to people and kind of putting the focus on bottom up, is that I think I come to election day ready to explain how any of these outcomes can be possible. And that, to me, is much more valuable than trying to point your work in one direction.
A
Yeah. Okay. Well, we both agree we like listening to voters. Okay. So your last story in the New York Times was this lengthy fe on Zora Mundani. Yes. And you recently wrote about his chummy meeting with Donald Trump in the Oval Office. So tell me what you learned about Moudani in your reporting. And did anything about the meeting then surprise you?
B
No, I think he's actually moved authentically to what he kind of signaled, particularly in the time I was doing that reporting. That was after the primary and the early stages of the general election. And I thought it was a really critical time to see what was the post primary version of Zora. You know, like, was he going to open up to critics? Was he gonna be all about the bas? How did he kind of evolve from campaigning to thinking about governing more clearly? And I think that in the time I was spending around him and folks close to him, it was really clear to me that this sounds so basic, but this is a campaign to be mayor of New York City. And I think for a lot of people, they have tried to make him something else. They have tried to project other things. Also. I think because of his politics comes from a more ideologically rigid place. You can kind of think that he would bring that to the role of mayor. It was really clear to me at that time they recognized that mayor as a role doesn't reward ideological rigidity that you have to work with others, that you have to work with the police, you have to work with business community, like even people who were non natural allies or overt enemies politically of his years ago. He was signaling at the time I was doing it that he understood that he could not take that into City Hall. And so that's why I was trying to communicate in that profile. I'm like, I think y' all are seeing this person for a little different than what he is. He is making clear that pragmatism about that agenda is his top and maybe only priority. And so when we see things after, like meeting with Donald Trump, a willingness to break with DSA about challenging Hakeem Jeffries, things like that, all of that makes a lot of sense to me from the person he was showing himself to be in the post primary time. Right. You know, as Democratic nominee of New York City, he could have, you know, just stuck to the guns and said, like a lot of the DSA people around him, this is an ideological project. They don't think that it's just buses for buses. They think taxing the rich is core to the point. You know, that's not really Zoram. He says, I think we have to deliver the products we promised. And I'm basically willing to do whatever to make that happen. And that includes what we saw with Trump. I heard over and over from people who were just charmed by him. And so I came in expecting Donald Trump to be the same. Trump has very rarely followed through on his meanness in person. It required J.D. vance in that Zelensky meeting to really kick off that tone. He doesn't even like firing people, as we know. And so I was expecting there to be a possibility of that overlap. But I gotta say, like, I thought they would somewhat get along. I didn't expect Trump to be looking at him like nephew, you know, like the big old smile. I didn't see that coming.
A
Yeah, well, you know, Trump wanted a little bit of the affordability Riz off of Zoran or just any of his Riz because Trump.
Yeah, he loves New York.
B
Yeah. He just loves New York too much. And I think that, like the type of ladder you have to climb to be mayor of New York City, Donald Trump knows. And so I think for as much as he might call Zoramdani, whatever all names in the book, he has a little bit of respect from someone who can get to that top of the heap in that city.
A
Yeah. Game recognizes game.
B
Yeah, yeah. And I think for Trump somewhat envious. He had to climb to the top of the heap with America, Right, to get over his rejection from New York. And I think it still rests in him pretty deeply that his goal more I think than becoming president 30 years ago was to become president of Manhattan. And I think that's still his goal in his heart.
A
Well, you know, whatever red socialism is, Trump is doing it. So it doesn't surprise me that they.
B
Found some kind of the government overlap is real too, with them.
A
Yeah, that's right. He's got some great ideas. I'm loving his ideas. Okay, this episode of the Focus Group is brought to you by Wild Grain. Wild Grain is the first baked from frozen subscription box for artisanal breads, seasonal pastries and fresh pastas. Plus, all items conveniently bake in 25 minutes or less. Unlike many store bought options, Wild Grain uses simple ingredients you can pronounce and a slow fermentation process that can be easier on your belly and richer in nutrients and antioxidants. Wild Grains boxes are fully customizable and they're constantly adding seasonal and limited time products for you to enjoy. In addition to their classic box, they now feature a gluten free box and a plant based box. I'm super excited about Wild Grains Parmesan herb bites because I love stuff covered in cheese and apple pie bites because I like apple pie. And these are perfect for cozy weekend brunches because you can often cook them in under 25 minutes. For a limited time, Wild Grain is offering our listeners $30 off your first box plus free croissants in every box when you go to wildgrain.comfocusgroup to start your subscription. You heard me. Free croissants in every box and $30 off your first box when you go to wildgrain.comfocus group. That's wildgrain.comfocus group or you can use promo code focus group at checkout. So I'm not going to lie stad. We wanted to have you on the show because of one of the focus groups we did recently with Biden Trump voters. So it's common for these groups to start vend venting. But these folks started venting both about the state of the country and about politics a little more than usual. Let's listen to what that sounded like.
B
I think that everything's at a boiling point right now. It seemed like we're kind of governed by a bunch of men, children, you know, bunch of children that can't agree, can't get along, bunch of finger pointing. You know, blaming each other for this, blaming each other for that. And really we're the ones that suffering behind it. But I can see where it could turn around if everyone, you know, start acting like adult and start actually agreeing on policies and you know, really starting to represent the people that elected them.
A
I mean, I'm just going to say things like term limits, eliminating the stock trading on Congress members, major plays like that would be, I think what we need. Right. It's, we're very polarized, right. You see these waves coming in and out of. Right. Okay. You know, Biden said so we're going to get rid of everybody.
B
Trump, Trump's in.
A
We're going to get everybody, get rid of anybody. With Biden, it's back to almost a spoils type system. And who's this working for? It's working for whoever's got the money for the influence. Whether it be a local or state or federal election.
B
At the end of the day, these parties don't do anything for the American people. They don't do anything at all. It's lined their pockets. They don't care about the middle class. Democrats do care about the middle class now the Republicans now it's all over the place and they don't care about us. And like I don't even bother voting.
A
For a governor, I don't even bother.
B
Voting for anybody besides the president because I know my throat, my vote's going to be thrown away. It's useless, it's a moot point.
A
I feel there's no sense of humanity, like I said before, it's just completely stripped family separation.
B
I'm a God fearing woman.
A
You don't have family separation. Family separation is the first part of destroying things in life. It doesn't matter if you're rich, poor or anything. The minute you have family separation, there is an issue. The minute that you choose to put children on the back burner to gain your own pockets. And that's exactly what Republicans and Democrats just did during this government shutdown when they decided to shut down SNAP benefits and different things of that nature out of what, because they were playing tit for tat with each other. Make that make sense. They're both doing things on the end where they're both giving things to other countries and not to our own country. They're putting other people's needs before our own American people, before our own children that are here.
So I want to introduce this to you as a category of swing voter that I hear all the time. And this category of swing voter is A lot of them were double haters going into 2024, but they're like pox on both their houses. Vot who see Trump as transcending partisan politics in some way and that's why they voted for him. They're like, this guy hates politics as much as we hate politics. He's as mad about things as we are mad about things. And he is quickly becoming. And this is always the trouble for somebody who runs as an outsider and then becomes the insider, even if they've done it before, is that then people are like, wait a minute, this guy's doing the same thing that makes me hate everybody else. So it's funny because you were talking at the beginning about why you went to vox and so you've been thinking about your own journalistic mission. I've heard you talk about this, like, differently now, and it has to do with disaffected voters like these. Right. So tell me how your thinking's evolved on this.
B
Yeah, I mean, we heard, as you did from so many of these people, and I think you're really accurately defining, often hated both sides. It's often to me a reminder that these kind of non voters or people are called more disaffected, can't be like necessarily placed as centrist, right?
A
That's right.
B
I wouldn't say necessarily. Them disliking both sides means they're Joe Manchin. It means that there's a structure that they're equating with both of these. And I think that has really created a distance from them in the political process altogether. When I think about centrists, they're still involved and engaged. They're just kind of torn on certain issues. Life, I hear, is people who feel like the two party structure has pushed them away more fully. And I don't think they're wrong to have seen Trump as transcendent on some of that stuff. I tell people that I think it really does matter that he is through either name recognition or money, which is kind of the only ways you can do it beyond the party structure. And people recognize that. People recognize that as someone who has a willingness to buck members of Congress, buck members of their own party, not toe a specific party line. These are all things Trump does consistently. And I think if you're thinking about outsider, that's really what defines them, is the feeling that they're able to tell the truth because they're unencumbered by all of those old and past relationships. But to your point about how I'm thinking about coverage and things like that. I don't think those people are coming to the news in the day to day way. And I would say even more so, they're actively staying away from it. And times I talk to these folks, they really find the news newsmakers to be reflective of similarly broken system. But you know, I sometimes think that comes from the same place that some of the politicians and insiders come from when they're seeking to impose their view on these people rather than reflect it. Right. And in those conversations, I hear things that fall into those kind of categories. Things like term limits I hear about all the time, things like, if only we can span them from trading stocks if we had an age limit at the top of Congress. When people act like there aren't things that Americans agree on, I always push back on that there are things a lot of Americans agree on. Do people wanna do it? Right? Does Washington wanna do it? Is there a political incentive to do it? Is there an organized effort to make it into law? Nah, nah, probably not. But is there a kind of groundswell of people who feel as if the incentives that have been created by either gerrymandering or stuff like electoral college or whatever you want to call the structures have made it such that politicians will never get along in the ways that they want them to? Right. They will never compromise in the ways that they want them to. And because of that, people don't know what to do. I think there's a real powerlessness with this type of voter because they don't know what their recourse is. And so I feel them, as to your point, flirt with the outsider of the moment because they reflect their diagnosis of problem. But in the moment Trump comes in now, he's the source of said problems rather than solution, then that frustration just re entrenches further. And so I go back to four years ago with 2021 and 2022, when we were going back to people who broke for Biden in 2020. And I think this is why the work you do is really important, is because when people don't check in with folks along the way, you really miss those type of shifts. And I remember in 2021, I think that inflation, ignoring that, immigration, ignoring like all of that stuff really drove home the point that people in here have said that, oh, they're prioritizing other people and not us. And I think for this type of voter felt like a real break with kind of establishment Democratic at that time. And I think Donald Trump is engaging in a similarly willfully blind exercise. There is, as you know, was real legitimate growth for Trump among working class people of color, among small business owning men. And then Republicans are really happy about that. Right. But it's not as if that has changed their economic lens once governing. It's not as if that has meant that he's not just simply open for business for richest corporation or individual donor. He's not reshaped something to be a more bottom up version of the party. So I think that that's why people have found the things like Snap to be offensive is because in the second version of Trump, I do think he was projecting a more kind of like working classy framework than typical Republicans and he has not followed through.
A
This is the thing that I, I never quite know how to get across people. I fight about it with JBL and here at the Bulwark and I'm kind of like, it's the economy, stupid. But it is. The economy is a big thing. It's a big complex organism. It's gas prices, it's ghost food prices, it's energy prices, it's jobs, it's tariffs. And I think people really, really struggle to understand how voters could look at Trump and think this guy's going to fight for working class people. Like, who falls for that? And I'm like, you know, I meet.
B
Those people all the time. I understand that.
A
Yeah. In a world where people like you just said, are not news seekers.
B
Yeah.
A
But news receivers in the sense that it washes over them algorithmically in some way. And they just catch these snippets of Trump kind of being like, you know, I'm going to lower Grace free prices. I'm going to do this. He's saying that. And then they hear from the other side something that doesn't focus on economics or at least, I mean, the number one thing that I hear from voters about Kamala Harris was like, what's going to be more of the same.
B
Yeah, yeah.
A
Or I don't know what she stands for. Right. And you were talking about this before. I mean, Donald Trump's great gift, the biggest trick he ever pulled. Right. That line is that he has had a parasocial relationship with people for like 20 years.
B
They know him more than you can tell them about him. For sure.
A
That's right. And that means the good and the bad and like they've kind of sorted through all of that and it's kind of came down to devil I know versus devil I don't know. And the devil that keeps promising to lower grocery prices. But of course that boxes him in Now, Hispanics who went for him in much higher numbers than they had in the past are like, I'm sorry, bro, you said you were gonna lower prices. I mean, this is what I'm just hearing from Gruzzy. He said he was gonna do X, Y and Z. And the only thing they give him credit on. They don't even give him that much credit on immigration. I mean, they do, but, like, he could be doing a lot more to tout his immigration. Like, I closed the border. Instead, he's like, no, there's more. We've got to do more and more.
B
The ramp up is not serving him.
A
Just say, we fixed it.
B
Yeah.
A
And now we're going to focus on the economy, but instead he's building a ballroom, which I'm not sure could present a greater contrast for voters of, like, the kleptocracy.
B
Anyway, the Stephen Millering of the presidency is a hugely important factor of this year to me. I know that in some people's framework of kind of anti Trumpism or whatever, all of these figures are exactly the same. And I don't think that's true. I think there are important distinctions. And I think Donald Trump is better at pulse check of working class. I think Donald Trump is better at having a somewhat sense of when something goes a little too far and he, like, has to kind of back off or like, just contradict himself the next day or something, whatever. They are currently engaged in a executive power project that has no limit because I think Donald Trump likes power and will take that for whatever happens. But I really think it's become much more of The Literal Project 2026, the Plenary Power dreams of Stephen Miller. And so they're doing Venezuela just to do it. They're doing tariffs just to do it, you know?
A
Yeah.
B
And I'm saying the lack of explanation on this front, I do think has had a kind of reputational impact. And I would also say I don't think we can go further without talking about Epstein, which I think has had a huge impact on this, too.
A
Go ahead, hit me. I love talking about. I don't understand why Democrats aren't always talking about Epstein.
B
I think there's very few issues that make Donald Trump look inauthentic and that make him side with the rich insiders. And I think this issue specifically.
A
You mean obviously side with the rich.
B
Obviously side with Richard. Yes, he sides with them all the time.
A
He's sided with them all the time. Yeah.
B
Yes, that's a distinction. He's side with them every day, honestly. But I'm like in an obvious way that's actually cut to doctor and independent. This is a really clear one. And I think that it has really punctured some of the myth of his distance from the elite class, you know.
A
Yeah.
B
You know, I think tariffs to your point about the economy is the most important thing. Islam, I think it has named this economy as his own and I think it has causationally created a sense that he is the reason prices are up. And like, no one can tell you otherwise because he told you himself.
A
That's right.
B
So I think that's the number one most important thing that's happened. You know, Immigration's in there too, but I would say Epstein to me is almost second because I think it has really busted up some of his own mythology.
A
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Now that we've done some of the diagnosis of what people think is wrong with politics, we also wanted to hear what they affirmatively wanted. People always ask me this, they're like but what do voters want? And I'm like well it's a big laundry list of stuff but you know, let's listen to what these voters said that they wanted.
B
We have to find some responsible people that I don't know how we would be able to start again right now at this point it's just like how many government shutdowns have we had? I mean it's ridiculous. You know, people are suffering behind this.
A
Congress and all parties should have the same health care that we do. One of the things that drove me nuts about Obamacare was the biggest carve out. Well unions and you know, representatives and.
B
Senators don't need to have it.
A
Well that's stupid. Again they trade on inside information. They're there for life and so they get bought. The arguments that I hear a lot from the left on gun control is oh you know the Constitution wasn't written for automatic and AKs. Okay, well maybe I think the Constitution wasn't written for people to spend 50 years in Congress and it being a full time job and becoming millionaires. So I think when I look at how we get it to work again.
B
Without blowing up the full system is.
A
Going back to some true checks and balances.
B
Obamacare is another issue. That's all bone of the conversation. We need to nix the Affordable Care Act. It is not working. Actually rename it to the Unaffordable Care Act. It is a failure, it is a disaster. Now we have to keep it subsidized for one more year, two more years. It doesn't make sense. It's not working. We need a better health care system similar to what senators get but not permanent, at least cheaper after a certain age. I feel like you have to move on. I think that's in multiple aspects of life nowadays. It's a lot of like people holding positions that they're slowing up the development of people that's supposed to come under them because they feel like they can still make decisions and realistically they can't because obviously you see the condition we're in as a country right now just based on these people running the country. And they not really serious about it either.
A
That's what's making it even worse.
B
It's like y' all playing Monopoly with people's lives. I think also though, a spending limit on actual campaigning creates a huge barrier to entry into politics in general, but also ends up being a lot of whoever has the most money has the.
A
Most influence on who gets into office.
B
And I think that is an issue that creates a political system where it's.
A
For the rich, for the corporations, more.
B
So than it is for the average American.
A
I'm just going to throw in here one observation that is counterintuitive. I think maybe for listeners that people believed about Trump, which is that they believed that his wealth made him uncorruptible. Like average voters think that because Trump came in so rich that like people couldn't buy him off. Because you hear all this, like, get money out of politics, it's corrupting. I mean, there's the down with the geriatocracy stuff, you know, term limits, everything. But our listeners, I think, will sit there being like, how could people who wanna get money out of politics, who do not like corruption, how could they have wanted Donald Trump? And I gotta tell you, the way that voters think about it, cuz Trump said this, he's like, I know the system, I've known how to play it, so I can come in and blow it up.
B
You also have the reality he did blow up the Republican Party, like he really did. So I don't think it's wrong to say, maybe not quite the way they wanted it to, not quite the way he wanted it to, or whatever.
A
Some ways though, yes, I think it.
B
Is absolutely true that this version of the Republican Party is a little less Chamber of Commerce. And so if that's something that you wanted, as some people would say, and I guess what's important to me is like in the campaigning fronts, which is in my experience, where people understand candidates the most, right, they get in office and kind of retreat from public view. And in the campaign aspect, Donald Trump's money has insulated him from some structures of Republican politics or donors or groups. He would have to be more deferential to think about what he was able to do on abortion in the last election. If that was someone who had owed their political rise to the evangelical right, he can't do that. And so I don't think it's wrong to say that Trump has blown stuff up. I just also think another Piece of this kind of second term is the blatantness of corruption as such, like the openness of the kind of for sale signs as such that I think it's overcome even some of those perceptions people have about him right when the tech CEOs are on the dais for the inauguration, like you kind of get it. And I think that he himself has messed up his own working class reputation more so this year totally. But to your point, I think most people bring that to him because of the campaign. But you know, a couple other solutions in there that I hear about all the time. We mentioned kind of structures of. But you know, I just came from Zoron World. Public financing of elections I think really did change New York City's elections and matching funds and ranked choice voting, which I know the DNC has like slightly floated for 2028, did create a different willingness to create coalitions, did create a different tone of campaigning and helped a group of people do their kind of anyone but Cuomo slate. And so I do think these discussions about how democracy is functions are worthy. And I think a Democratic party specifically over the last four years, in my opinion, a lot of their disconnect from voters came not only from like, you know, things we've talked about policy wise or just like being a little too stuck up, but it was really just process too. Like I would be in there being like, oh, you all have actually created these steps that have no gut checks with people outside of this room along the way. And because those weren't there, you had to make a decision that was so at the end, that was so outside of where their own voters were. And so I do think this question of process and how democracy is performed is going to be one that's more top of mind for voters now because I hear among particularly Democrats who are or people who are upset about the kind of Biden reelect a sense of like why did that happen? And I think that now the party has lost some of its assumed trust and I think some of its electability argument. I don't think Democratic base is just gonna be deferential to who the party says is the right one to pick in the same way because the feeling is those folks led us astray.
A
But the thing about running as a reformer, I do think that Democrats get slightly obsessed with things like ranked choice voting that actually are kind of complicated for the voters to grasp. Whereas the voters broadly, they do want a reformer though. They want something that's against corruption. They want something that allows them to be more Reflective. I do hear a lot more sort of anti gerrymandering. Everybody's like, what is happening with this gerrymandering stuff?
B
Because unless I think people know Congress is fundamentally broken.
A
Yes, I think so, too. And so at some point, I think for Democrats, something they did going into 2020, and like, I think part of Biden's struggle in that interregnum was that they ended up defending norms, values and institutions that were a bunch of values, institutions that people were like, we should probably let some of those for real, too. Is that when you say like, no, we're the Democracy Party.
B
Yes.
A
And then you don't have a primary.
B
Yes.
A
When we did our postmortems on Kamala, which actually was, I think maybe when you were on like the level of gaslighting, people felt on just feeling like they were cut out of the decision over the ultimate nominee. They were so mad. They were mad that it was Biden and then they were mad that somebody got put in there that they didn't have a say.
B
Yeah, I really think that's important. And I feel as if that type of framework, allowing people to feel empowered is going to be something that they have to solve. And I honestly think that that is what gives an outsider an opportunity in 2028 is that big trust loss. I have this earnest question with them. Do they think our current state of democracy works, works in terms of actually allowing people's voices to be reflected in the policy making process? I would argue that's not true. I would argue that the reasons we all cited it via gerrymandering, via all these other things have created a kind of a system where that's semi true, but that's not fully true. And I think most voters understand that. And so one of the things I didn't understand about the democracy pitch was to your point, they're defending the status quo. I would talk about improving democracy. I would talk about ways to make your voice more heard in Washington. I would talk about broken Washington and ways to fix it, and also talk about the ways Donald Trump is breaking things in a different way. But I think the latitude for people to even hear his breaking is because he's correctly identifying that the status quo is unacceptable. And that's something that Democrats didn't have to cede. They could have agreed with him and pitched a vision of their own about ways our political structures can be more representative. And so when I think about, like all of the effort they were putting into representation about individuals, black and brown, over the last four or five years, I thought it would be much more powerful, much more meaningful to talk about how these collections of people become more represented in our politics broadly. Like much bigger than individual press secretary having individual identity. Is the fact that lots of these groups are written out in big ways in the process.
A
Yes.
B
And I'm like, that sounds to me like a platform, not just insert person. Insert person.
A
Yes. Well, it's how you get from being a collection of groups to something that levels up to something that a lot of people can tag into, which is I want to reform this system. Let's do better. The way that I keep saying it is Donald Trump is burning the whole system down. And so like Democrats have to plan for what they're going to build in its place. Yeah. And that, that allows them to be forward looking and have a pitch and that's where they've got to break out of the. Just like we're just not that guy. Like that's not going to be enough.
B
Yeah. And I really just feel as if it requires leadership. Like it actually requires some courage and like I think that's another piece that was just a little missing here. Like you're never going to not make anybody mad in that, you know, someone will be mad and you have to be okay with that.
A
Yeah.
B
And you also can't wait to be third. You know, somebody's got to be first. Somebody's got to say and lay out some broader vision and start having a conversation that I feel reflects more the broader vision questions than just kind of like tactics. Even the gerrymandering discussion. I think they have matched or even bested Republicans and kind of short term tactics. Right. But it's not as if that kind of answers the broader and longer term question of an unequal democracy that is growing more so.
A
Yeah.
B
And I think even while they do the short term tactics, I find it interesting that you don't hear the newsoms or whoever talking about that long term vision. At least not yet. Maybe that's next year.
A
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Let's get to Maine. Let's get to Maine. You and I could do this all day. All right, so there's this 2026 race, and it's got me sort of excited as an analyst because it throws into stark relief this conversation that we're having. So I'm talking about the Democratic primary for Senate in Maine. The primary is shaping up to be between Governor Janet Mills, who would take office at age 79, and she's committed to only serving one term. And the other is Graham Platner, the progressive oyster farmer, an ex Marine who has like a mile long trail. A very inconvenient Internet mess. Yeah, this guy, I mean, I saw one that was just floating around that was like, there's a, like an app for Am I dating your boyfriend?
B
I watched, I saw this one. Did you see this?
A
And so like people were comparing and everybody's like, wait, I dated that guy. So this, this guy's got a lot of bad stuff on Reddit, whatever. But we listen to Democrats all year, say they want candidates who are fighters, who are not from the old guard. And if you think that means that Graham Platner had an advantage in our focus groups, you would be right. So let's listen. I think Graham Platner, this might be an excuse, but it's sort of like, you know, you might have a relative, like an older relative or someone who's from an older generation, where they're not as progressive as. As they are, or they weren't as progressive as they might be now. Sort of like a man of his time, you know, or.
B
I was trying to think about the.
A
Context of where those comments came from on Reddit, on X. I guess it was, you know, he was in the military. There's a certain culture. It's very macho and it's very tough guy. There's a certain culture, let's just say that. And good, bad, or indifferent, there's a certain culture. And I think his ideas at that time were coming from a place that is not uncommon in that culture. Right. Like others have said, I do think his apologies are genuine. I think he has a strong ability to stand up to MAGA and Republicans. And, yeah, I guess that kind of resonates with me just in terms of, like, is he gonna disappoint me again?
B
Or like, it just, like, makes me.
A
A little less trusting. But at the same time, I'm like, well, what's the alternative? Like Susan Collins, I don't trust her at all. And I'm still certainly inspired by Platner's platform. I also would like to see someone who's a little more aggressive, and I like that in Platner. I would like to know more about his platform, but I really feel that he's aggressive and that he might make more change. I don't care about the mudslinging, the tattoos and the Reddit comments, things that were foolish in our youth. And we've all sometimes changed our perspective as we age. I think right now I'm kind of rooting for him a little more. Obviously, he came out swinging. All of my progressive friends are excited. And then it's been challenge after challenge. And so I keep on reading and watching and hoping, but there's certainly some things that were very, very concerning regarding rape and Nazism. And I mean, there was just so many things, boom, boom, boom. And so I don't know who I'll vote for in a year. And I'm kind of glad that I have a year to decide. I feel like he has taken accountability for it, but I'm also in this reactionary, my body is tingly reactionary mode to am I going to invest myself in somebody who's going to really disappoint me with whatever that looks like? Because we certainly are in a, in a phase. We're often disappointed by people who are supposed to help lead us and help us. The tattoo when he was young and drunk.
B
I think all of us or certainly.
A
I've done some really stupid things when.
B
I was younger that I regret.
A
I think most of us do. I think his apology for that seems genuine, him being more progressive. Even though it's good like to shake up the whole MAGA stuff that's happening. I am just wary about like we continue this big division of more extreme viewpoints when maybe more of the moderate or meeting in the middle. But still being like in your political party is just how I would feel more comfortable with things going. I haven't heard a lick from Mills. What does she stand for?
B
What is she running? What murmurings of a platform? I have no idea. I just know she's running. But Platter seems like I'm getting something every day. Like they're giving more hints. It's like what's this guy for? What's he trying to push for? Where he's going to stand and where he's not going to yield. And you need somebody who's not going to yield. It doesn't matter their age.
A
Here's my question. Do you think Democrats would have been this. What would be the word?
B
Is it forgiving?
A
Yeah, forgiving, like open minded about a candidate with this kind of personal history a few years ago. And if not. Yeah, right now. If not, what do you think's changed? Let's talk about what's changed.
B
I really think the bottom fell out of people's relationship with party establishment from a Democratic perspective. And I think there was a real sense that handing over the keys to supposed experts. I would say this is true kind of in a lot of places in life post pandemic. But I think people's feeling that handing over the keys to supposed experts has not served them. And I think specific to this race, the question of age and I think age is kind of tied to this. How you present yourself has become super important. And so I think the vigor of Platner or just the consistency of message, the willingness to be in digital and Internet media spaces that has his message come to you over and over is just as important as the literal ages of candidates themselves. The fact that he's running a modern campaign is just as important as how old he is. What I remember with the Tea Party, the point was to change the party. And so there were Ls that they took, there were general elections that they lost. But one thing I learned from the kind of early roots of MAGA Republicans was they left that 2012 election thinking, what I won't do again is vote for a guy I barely like for the purposes of beating the Democrat. And I think that instinct is bubbling up in more and more Democrats where the point is to change the party. And so whether you're willing to excuse individual scandal from Platner or whether you're voting for Platner simply because they seem to be trying to stop him, I think you're okay with whatever lumps come with that. The other thing, I think the woman who said, I'm glad to have a year is really important too. You know, one of the things I didn't understand like months ago was I felt like, you know, there were two teams chosen in this race early and there was such like an intense kind of stan culture war developing around like Platner Mills. And I was telling people like, eh, it's just too early. If this is all we learn from him, I imagine he can ride it out because of the things we just heard. And I think people's willingness to see authenticity as coming with some level of scandal. Right. And I don't want to jump over that point too. I'm like Donald Trump when people talk about people don't know his scandals. I'm like, they do. They really do it is that because he has been himself in quotes, you have taken those in as part of the cost. And I think in this age of authenticity, I think that's gonna become more and more common. I think Zoran does this in a different way, but I'm like, it's more beneficial for you to present full self. I don't think any politician's presenting full self, but it's more beneficial for you to seem as if you're presenting your full self to voters and that coming with scandal than it is to choose the hyper curated, consultant driven lane. And they feel like that's what they're getting, they're just rejecting that on its face.
A
I think that's right. I think when he says he's going to push for where he's going to stand and where he's not going to yield, and you need somebody who's not going to yield, doesn't matter their age. And even when you say what they want, the party to look like. I have found that when you talk to Democratic voters who would say that they want the party to be more moderate or you talk to progressive voters who want the party to be more progressive, they actually don't sound that different because they both just want the party to be more aggressive. They are tired of getting steamrolled is a word that I hear a lot. They are tired of Trump running over them. And if you tell them to go high while the other guys go low, they're like, no, run that over. No, we will go low, too.
B
I thought this was underrated in the elections last month. I mean, Mikey Sherrill and Spamberger are running different versions of themselves than four years ago. You know, they're embodying fighter and beyond. I think the traditional means of even we call moderate. I'm like, if Sheryl's talking about declaring a state of emergency around electricity prices, I think five years ago we wouldn't have called that a moderate action. Right, Right. And so I'm like, everyone is evolving to match the level of aggression the base is demanding. Right. I was thinking about this with no kings, if this is what we calling, like, the more, like, resistance Y base or whatever, I don't think no kings felt like centrists. It's a little bit of a weirdo mix. I use Jasmine Crockett as an example on this. I'm like, where would she fall on the moderate progressive scale? I'm not sure. What I do know is she checks that aggressive box, that she checks that fighter box.
A
Yes.
B
And I think when I'm telling people they have to break out of that ideological framework, I'm like, I think a lot of voters are prioritizing that fighter over feeling like they have some full sense of your political identity on the traditional scales.
A
We're used to looking at 100%. And it's not just vibes, although I think vibes are a little bit a part of it. But if you asked, Jasmine Crockett comes up all the time. People like, I like Jasmine Crockett. And if I push back and I said, what policies of hers do you like?
B
Exactly?
A
They're not gonna tell me what policy she likes. They're gonna be like, I don't know. She's on TV saying that these guys are awful.
B
She's on TV dragging them. She's in the committee hearing cooking them the viral clips. And I think sometimes, you know, this is particularly true, I think, on Twitter, where I think the ideological framework is way too rigid. And, like, people are still working from a place where they think most voters are engaged in that same moderate, progressive, eternal war that the app is in. And I'm like, they are not. It's not really not.
A
It's not.
B
And to your point, they're actually, I think, increasingly in agreement beyond that left, right framework. They're actually increasingly in agreement on aggression or fighter. And that's why I say modern campaigning too, because I think, like, where you show up is also important. And, you know, the fact that I'm getting Jasmine Crockett Content on IG reels and TikTok is important. You know that she's not just fighting them on cable news, she's fighting them in my phone. And so I think when we think about the emerging stars or where things are gonna go or things like 2028, we have to really update the framework. You know, I was telling people this about the times. I was part of our Democratic primary coverage team right in the thick of it in 2019. And I think at that time, you still basically had the Democratic candidates and campaigns who were working from the premise of like, times front page. I don't think that's like literally times front page, but I would say, like that lane of type of information.
A
Yes.
B
That will not be true the next time. That won't be true.
A
No. And it wasn't true this last time.
B
It wasn't even true this last time.
A
It was part of their problem is they were like, well, we're gonna do this big prep for these big tentpole events. And I think any candidate who's going to run in the modern era is going to have to adopt an everything everywhere all at once strategy, which is a movie I hated, but a really thought it was overrated that I advocate because it is like, no, you got to be everywhere. And that's where I think part of what's changing about politics is like, you can't live in a consultant world where they curate a fake politician now, right? Like, sorry, you're gonna have to do the work. You're gonna have to be the human and you're gonna have to hold up the phone and say, here's what I think over and over and over again. And if you're not built for that, you're not gonna be built as a politician in the modern era.
B
The places your current slate of candidates have to go now are too varied for you to be engaged in an effort of trying to calibrate the right answer, every answer.
A
Yes, you know that's right.
B
You can't last your three hour podcast in that you can't even last on. I would say on your 2 minute TikTok in that, you know, this was a discussion when people were talking about, like, what to do about trans women in sports, because it felt like, you know, a lot of the Democratic electives were kind of getting on the right side of the polling on that earlier this year by kind of like saying maybe we were wrong and blah, blah, blah, blah. And I was always making the case that, like, you can choose either side of that coin as long as it is your legitimate belief and as long as you are leading from that. And so when people are asking me about stuff, I'm like, I have no advice to them except actually think about what you truly believe in.
A
My guy, My guy. This is what I do. They do this to me. They're like, you know, because I'm a lesbian, they're like, sarah, how do I be a friend to the LGBTQIA+ community? And I'm like, okay, what's your position?
B
I said, what do you believe?
A
Like, say that because, you know, what they mostly believe? They actually. What they mostly believe is, like, kind of in line with regular people, which is I'm not entirely sure. Leave trans kids alone. I've got fairness concerns about competitive sports. And I'm like, okay, well, then just say that, because that's what most people think.
B
I honestly think that answer really got them so much good two to three years ago. Right. But then when they were all doing the kind of like, oh, I'm flipping, I was like, well, that doesn't solve your authenticity problem, because all the people.
A
You saw, the bad polling.
B
We get it. Or even I thought about this with Harris in the book. I'm like, okay, you can say these things about Biden, but the immediate question is there was a moment to act. There was a time to say this and all of that type of stuff. And so I kind of just think this is an overall question of, like, Donald Trump was not waiting for the polling to tell him about immigration or even with Mamdani, like, his message was so kind of class forward. And so it doesn't necessarily fall into what I would say is the traditional projection of, like, woke, right? Because he's not, like, going stop to stop talking about things other than affordability, other than, like, things that I think are the things we know of him. You know, he talks about protecting trans kids when he's asked, you know, all of that type of stuff. I think in some ways over the last several years, the kind of like, identity virtue signaling became an easy place to land because you didn't have to ask yourself questions about like real tangible things that matter to people. And I really think that created like an ease of politics for people who were just like used to checking a couple boxes. And so one thing I would tell them is like, that was always gonna collapse, in my opinion. And we are living in said collapse slash backlash. And so right now that doesn't mean diversity doesn't matter. That doesn't mean identity politics doesn't matter. But it does mean that I think that the use of those things as reasons why everyone should ignore everything else is not gonna work and has not worked. Yes, that's what I think they're really wrestling with.
A
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B
Or download the app from the Apple.
A
App or Google Play stores.
Dude, I could talk about this all day, but I have to get to more voters because to this exact point, what I loved about this main group, you just heard them kind of all talk about, yeah, I know he's got these problems, but, like, he was a clean sweep in the group. Like, if we said, you gotta choose today, there was one person who was like, can I take a m. You know, I did the wavy hand thing, but most of them were like, yeah, Platner. All of them, including her, who just was kind of on the fence. But when it came to Mills, they don't dislike Mills. And it's funny because it's common for Democratic voters to complain about Chuck Schumer just because he's been around so long and they think he is not made for this moment at all. But they did have this real reservoir of goodwill for Janet Mills because she's been like a statewide office holder for two decades, which of course is why she's this safe choice by the dnc. But, like, these voters are out on the gerontocracy. Let's listen. I can't. She just, like, she has led our.
B
State in so many positive ways.
A
It's like, yes, just buy the beach house and retire. I like Janet Mills. She has some ties to our community. She's been here before. I have people who are friendly with her. I think she has some right ideas. I was disappointed that she doesn't just want to go out on whatever it is as the governor and that she feels the need to come back in to the race as a retired primary care doctor. I think, again, to use that word, ludicrous. It's ludicrous for somebody who's going to be 79 years old if she becomes the U.S. senator for Maine. It's time to retire and give the mantle to younger people. She did a good job as governor. She really stood up to Trump. And I really respect hard for that. But it's time for people to retire at that age. I mean, if you see all these people who are in Congress, right, and they're 77, 79, 80, whatever, and they all seem healthy. Well, at some point, the odds are going to fail one of these people, right? And they're going to drop dead and, you know, we're going to have to.
B
Go through a special election.
A
So it's like still kind of a moving target in my mind. I am hearing a lot of people being discouraged about Janet Mills running. To me, she. I feel like she's done a really good job as governor, and I've liked the stability and appreciated that, especially coming from LePage being the governor before that. I don't necessarily feel the same way as others. I'm still considering her and supportive of that. I wish we could combine them into one, like, solidly electable candidate. Okay. But here's the truth, is that Mills is just too dang old. You know, she's got the experience. You know what I mean? She has a lot of connections, and I do think that the Democratic Party wants her to win. Platner, on the other hand, has got the age, and he's got the energy and he's got the potential for. You know, when you talk about him being, like, the next person, you want him to be young because you really do want someone who's not just going to serve one term. I like Governor Mills.
B
I voted for her every election that she's ran. But does she meet the moment at hand? To me, no, it's not an issue of age. I would suspect a lot of us in this room would go, bernie's amazing. Bernie's super old. It's older than Mills, and therefore it's like, go, Bernie, go.
A
But he's super old.
B
So it's not an issue of age.
A
It's an issue of message.
I'd say it's a little bit of.
B
Both, but it's definitely both.
A
Do you know who these voters sound like? They sound like 20, 23 voters talking about Joe Biden. They're like, let's throw this man a retirement party. Let's give him a gold watch. He's been great for the party, but he's too old to run again. And as we look at the 2026 cycle. What are you watching for? Where's the puck going? Where are we going to be?
B
Well, I think we certainly have a high number of competitive primaries, and I think that those will be the first pulse checks on the level of anger within the Democratic Party base pointed towards their own party. But the thing about midterms is this is gonna be about Donald Trump come general election time next year. And I think a lot of those signs point to a country that is itching to backlash against a administration that has not, to our points earlier, followed through on the standards they set for themselves. And so I imagine there should be, as some special elections have given us already, fairly good signs for Democrats going through the midterms. But the question of midterms is very separate. From the vision fight that will define the presidential primary.
A
Yes.
B
And I think next year actually can be energizing for Democrats in a lot of ways. But they really punted on a lot of core questions about what they believe in in 2019. Right. Joe Biden basically convinced everyone, I think, accurately, that electability matter more. Put this stuff to the side, because we're just going to focus on beating Donald Trump. So I just think that fundamental things about immigration, about health care, I mean, what's the pulse on Medicare for all among the party right now? I don't know. There will be a push from something bottom up, some progressive or left candidate for that. I remember when the Harris signed up for Bernie's bill heading into the 2020 election, thinking that Medicare fraud was gonna be a universal position among a base, and then half of them were backing off within a year. Like, where is the health care kind of fight? I just think that so many of those issues have not actually been resolved. That 2027, in my opinion, is the time in which that gets pulled into public view. I imagine next year we'll be controlled by Donald Trump's ridiculousness and will be a summer of America 250 of a world cup of so many things that threaten to really sow fundamental chaos. And I can see Democrats being well suited to seize on that for a midterm election. I would just say already, though, now, that would inform very little of how I felt about the presidential. I think they could have a great night, they could have a horrible night and both of those things. I think we will be writing a new story come 2027.
A
Oh, man. You and me, same page. Yeah.
B
I'm like, it's gonna be interesting, but it's not gonna be the whole enchilada. Like, that's coming later.
A
I just outstand this last minute to the question of healthcare. So obviously I was a Republican like 20 minutes ago. And so I've never been like a, you know, Medicare for all type at all.
B
Yeah.
A
I think that's where it's headed, though. The frustration with health care costs and affordability in general. Like, this is where Democrats, I think, are going to find themselves. They're going to have to rediscover how to be a party for the middle class. Yeah. And a party for people who are squeezed across all these different economic vectors. And. And that's not going to be just gas prices and it's not going to be just college. It's all these things. And I think the voters are in the mood for politicians that are going to take big swings at the affordability questions for sure.
B
And you know, I was the Warren reporter when she was putting out a plan a week, big structural stuff. And it was always interesting to me which areas didn't get a plan. And I always tell people about an issue like K through 12 education. I hear so much for a desire for a big swing, a desire for someone to even acknowledge the fact that like in a lot of cities folks feel like they have bad options and that's not a thing that ever comes up. You know, homelessness is a thing I hear about all the time that like very rarely comes up, you know. And so I will always kind of find these little pockets. But I think to your point about Medicare for All, Bernie was unwavering, but I would say short on detail and I would say there was a lot of other candidates that were doing signaling without full heartedly being in with that policy. But from a voter perspective, whether it's the desire for change, whether it's even the reaction to the Luigi shooting or whatever, I think there is a palpable urgency around healthcare, even with the shutdown. And I think the healthcare subsidies too.
A
Totally.
B
I think there's a palpable urgency. And so when we think about litmus tests that are going to define the early parts of the presidential race, whoever that progressive candidate is will embrace Medicare for all. And whoever else is in that race will have to answer about it.
A
Yeah, I totally agree. Okay. Estad Herndon, thank you so much for joining us. And thanks to all of you for listening to another episode of the focus group podcast. We'll be back next week, but in the meantime, remember to rate and review us on Apple Podcasts. Subscribe to The Bulwark on YouTube and become a Bulwark plus member at the bullwork.com we will see you guys soon. Bye.
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Date: December 6, 2025
Host: Sarah Longwell (The Bulwark)
Guest: Astead Herndon (Vox, formerly The New York Times)
In this episode, Sarah Longwell sits down with journalist Astead Herndon to unpack voter disillusionment with politics, emerging realignments within both parties, and the tension between political insiders and disaffected voters. They dive deep into recent focus groups, especially Biden-Trump swing voters, and use the 2026 Maine Senate Democratic primary as a case study for trends around generational change, expectations of authenticity, and the desire for political reform.
Voters consistently show deep frustration: gridlock, corruption, and self-dealing by elites in both parties.
Focus group clips (11:22–13:43) capture this rawness:
Astead (14:44): Discusses the unique nature of “double-hater” swing voters—those who don’t fit as centrists but see both parties as complicit in a broken system.
Both hosts note Trump’s appeal as a rule-breaker and outsider, but frustrations when perceived to be “just as bad.”
| Timestamp | Quote (Speaker) | |------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 04:00 | “I can get a top line number. But the why behind it ... requires those kind of interpersonal focus group, individual interviews.” (Astead Herndon) | | 13:43 | “Pox on both their houses... voters who see Trump as transcending partisan politics in some way... He’s as mad about things as we are.” (Sarah Longwell) | | 22:52 | “There’s very few issues that make Donald Trump look inauthentic and that make him side with the rich insiders... Epstein is a really clear one.” (Astead Herndon) | | 29:07 | “Average voters think that because Trump came in so rich, people couldn’t buy him off...he'd blow it up.” (Sarah) | | 37:01 | “They have matched or even bested Republicans in short-term tactics... but it’s not as if that answers the broader question of an unequal democracy that is growing more so.” (Astead) | | 44:14 | “I really think the bottom fell out of people’s relationship with party establishment … running a modern campaign is just as important as how old he is.” (Astead) | | 49:23 | “They’re not gonna tell me what policy she likes. They’re gonna be like, I don’t know, she’s on TV saying that these guys are awful.” (Sarah) | | 60:35 | “Let’s throw this man a retirement party. Let’s give him a gold watch. He’s been great for the party, but he’s too old to run again.” (Sarah) | | 64:19 | “Democrats are going to have to rediscover how to be a party for the middle class... voters are in the mood for politicians that are going to take big swings at the affordability questions.” (Sarah) |
This episode captures the profound skepticism and reformist desire running through the American electorate, especially among swing voters and Democratic base voters. Voters crave change, authenticity, and leaders who engage directly with their frustrations rather than simply defending institutions. The Maine Senate race becomes a prism: tradition vs. transformation, tested experience vs. energetic authenticity. Both Sarah and Astead suggest that the future lies with political figures who are aggressive communicators, unafraid to break the consultant mold, and who bring forward-looking, inclusive reforms—no longer leaning on inevitability or establishment craft alone.
For listeners: The shifting mood among voters means today’s political “safe bets” may quickly become tomorrow’s relics, and authenticity—even with rough edges—is often more appealing than perfection.