The Focus Group Podcast – S6 Ep17: "America on Tape: A Brutal (and Hopeful) Year"

Host: Sarah Longwell (The Bulwark)
Guests: Anne Applebaum (The Atlantic), Heather Cox Richardson (Boston College), Robert Draper (NYT Magazine)
Date: December 27, 2025

Overview

This year-end “best of” marathon blends the most insightful moments from 2025’s Focus Group episodes, capturing America’s tumultuous political landscape following Trump’s return to the White House. Publisher Sarah Longwell dives deep with top analysts and historians, weaving in real focus group voices from across the political spectrum—swing voters, disillusioned Democrats, and divided Republicans. The show offers a raw, inside look at voter attitudes on authoritarianism, the normalization of retribution politics, institutional decay, and the flickers of hope emerging from civic resistance and protest.

I. Introduction & Main Themes (03:33)

Sarah Longwell sets up the episode as a collection of standout conversations from an extraordinary year in American politics. The focus: Americans’ evolving attitudes toward Trump’s administration, the erosion and defense of democratic norms, and how hope and cynicism coexist among real voters.

II. Authoritarian Creep & Disorientation (w/ Anne Applebaum)

Original Air Date: April 2025

A. How Democracies Slide, Not Fall (04:41)

• Anne Applebaum details how authoritarianism rarely arrives suddenly; it’s a gradual decline marked by weakened institutions and mounting distrust.

  • “Democratic decline is a process rather than a moment... In our country, it began sometime back. I’d say a decade ago, if not more, as Congress became more and more ineffective.” (05:16–05:53)

• The disruptive role of the Internet, economic, demographic, and informational change in making people “disoriented” and nostalgic for a simpler time.

  • “One of the things that happens when you have the speed of change is you have some people becoming nostalgic... We want to go back to a simpler time, whatever time it is that they have in their head.” (06:25–07:17)

B. Modern Disinformation’s Impact (09:01–11:48)

• Focus groups reveal swing voters deeply unsure what’s true, expressing confusion about high-profile cases (e.g., deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia).

  • “Disoriented… only know a part or a piece of the story... They don’t seem to really know what happened.” —Anne Applebaum (10:15)

• Applebaum warns:

  • “The problem ... is that in both cases [history], people didn’t go back to agreeing with each other and behaving sensibly until there were these horrific wars.” (10:12)

• Key Quote:
  “Once people began to believe that [institutions are lying], you know, then people are ripe for something different... And I think you can pinpoint that as a beginning. That goes back 15 years.” —Anne Applebaum (08:14)

C. Focus Group Clip: How Voters Process Disinfo (12:17–15:41)

• Voters debate whether a deported man is truly a criminal or a victim, showing how right-wing and left-wing media spin sows confusion.
  • “I've read reports this guy was busted... it's called a coyote... This guy obviously has ties to these gangs...” (13:20)
  • Others: “They tell us what they want us to hear. Is it the truth? Who knows?” (12:40)

D. Demagoguing and Out-Groups

Applebaum explains classic authoritarian tactics:

• Targeting out-groups to unify “us” and justify breaking norms:

  “Trump ... creates a group that is legitimate to be attacked and then deported... That’s a tactic as old as humanity.” (16:32)

• Quote: "Constant repetitive lying... If nothing is true and you can't know anything, then why should you be involved in politics at all?" (17:17–18:15) – Anne Applebaum

E. Hopelessness as a Feature, Not Bug (20:26)

• Deliberate confusion is a tactic:

  "Vance and Trump and others... have deliberately created a world in which people don't know what's true. And that is a tactic. That's not an accident." —Anne Applebaum (20:26)

F. Institutional Decay—Courts Aren’t a Check? (27:05–29:35)

• Focus group responses show eroding respect for the Supreme Court; some believe due process no longer matters for out-groups.

  • “The Supreme Court is, has the highest say. So to just ignore that, I think, sets a bad precedent.” (28:11)
  • Yet others remain apathetic: “Who cares what the Supreme Court says?” (27:05)

• Applebaum: If Trump outright defies the Supreme Court, “It’s a huge moment... It will cause an enormous ripple effect...” (30:44)

III. Tit-for-Tat Retribution and “Whataboutism”

A. Attacks on Law Firms (35:03–39:04)

• Longwell asks about Trump’s executive orders punishing law firms tied to political opponents.
• Most focus group participants are either unaware or excuse it as payback for “what Biden did.”

  “There is... now, it's like, you know, if you're going to do this stuff, it's going to come back and bite you again.” (37:39)

• Applebaum: Many ignore basic rule-of-law principles (“everybody has a right to a lawyer”). Points to how “whataboutism” and “sunk costs” let people justify anything.

B. Targeting Academia (48:19–54:49)

• Trump’s attacks on Harvard’s funding/tax status and threats to DEI programs elicit a surprisingly mixed response:

  “Harvard has $60 billion ... why are we subsidizing that school? ... I don’t think they need the money.” (47:08) Others: “Auditing viewpoints... seems a little backwards to me.” (49:19)

• Applebaum: Parallels Orban’s Hungary—authoritarians attack universities as elite scapegoats to divide society and “make Americans more malleable.” (51:17)

IV. The New Normal: Voters Shrug, Authoritarian Moves Met with Shrugs (56:19–61:03)

• Focus group participants largely accept retaliation as a normal part of politics, expressing resignation:

  “It’s retaliatory, I guess a little because they didn’t treat Trump right... but I don’t agree with it. But I don’t have to agree with everything.” (56:55)

• Longwell observes: Swing voters—many Biden to Trump—no longer see an existential crisis.

  “They don't use words like authoritarianism. They think we're in a politics as usual, tit for tat.” (60:02)

• Applebaum warns that after years of chaos, “people are already prepared to accept stuff that would have shocked them a decade ago...” (61:03)

V. Hope & Civic Resistance (w/ Heather Cox Richardson)

Original Air Date: June 2025 – "No Kings" Protest & Democratic Despair

A. Context: America’s Constitutional Stress Test (66:37)

• Heather Cox Richardson gives historical perspective:

  “The experiment’s in trouble. We have a very small minority who have seized the nodes of power and ... are imposing their will ... But what I said in 2020 still holds. We’re not done yet.” (68:59–69:35)

• America’s not a fascist state, but faces coordinated minority rule, intensified voter suppression, gerrymanders, and oligarchic interests.

B. Democrats’ Fears and the Language of Alarm (71:20–76:46)

• Democratic focus group participants invoke historical fascism, authoritarian tactics, and express deep alarm:

  “I've been fearful of this Trump term since ... learning about Hitler's Nazi Germany. And we are watching fascism in real time in America.” (72:09) “If he could have used the military to guard dropboxes during the... election, he would have done that as well.” (74:33)

• Cox Richardson: No overreaction—Trump is following the standard playbook of authoritarian drift, but...

  “While he is absolutely following a playbook, he's absolutely being called out for following that playbook. And people are saying, hey, look, we see what you're doing...” (76:46)

C. Mass Mobilization—Protest as Civic Therapy (99:12–103:45)

• “No Kings” protests nationwide energized and reassured Democrats.
• Many cite interwoven fear for personal safety and hope for change.

  “What really concerns me about him and this cult-like following... is that they are not going to go away.” (117:15) “It felt so important ... to show support in the opposite direction.” (99:44)

• History shows change comes when average people mobilize for democratic principles—“If enough people do the next right thing, they change the world.” (67:30)

D. On Democratic Vitality and Party Realignment (89:59–95:32)

• Generational change is coming—young leaders on both sides may eventually reshape their parties post-Trump.

  “Trump is not going to live forever... I wouldn’t be very comfortable if I were in that, in that electoral mess.” (94:52)

• Cox Richardson draws parallels to the realignment of the parties in the late 19th/early 20th century, hinting at historical hope.

E. Information Crisis & Both-Sides-ism (123:33–129:49)

• Newly, some Democrats are also expressing doubts about the fairness of the 2024 election.

  “...but the more and more Elon Musk got involved ... that made me start to think that maybe there was something else going on...” (124:45)

• Cox Richardson: Encouraged by the rise of independent media providing “reality-based community,” but notes the urgent need for greater media literacy.

VI. The GOP Schism & MAGA’s Next Stage (w/ Robert Draper)

Original Air Date: November 2025 – MAGA vs. "America First"

A. Fault Lines on the Right: Israel, America First, Antisemitism (136:33–144:35)

• GOP’s unity under Trump is fraying, especially over Israel/antisemitism.

  “On the right it’s mainly America first dictates that we take care of our business at home...” (138:39)

• Draper points to the rise of white nationalist figures (Nick Fuentes) and the growing normalization of antisemitism and isolationism in the GOP.

  “The groyper subculture ... there's undisguised antipathy not just towards Israel but towards Jews as a problem in the United States...” (142:33)

B. Trump 2028: Will He Leave? (145:17–153:08)

• Most focus group Trump voters oppose a Trump third term, but Draper warns that Trump could quickly win their support if he demanded it.

  “If Trump tells people to change their minds in his base, they are likely to change their minds...” (149:47)

C. Breakdown of Republican Institutions (157:09–158:10)

• Voters show little attachment to institutional legacies like the filibuster; eagerness for “getting things done” trumps principle.
• Draper notes the anti-institutional bent of MAGA voters as a striking change.

D. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Evolution (161:07–175:30)

• MTG’s recent efforts to reposition herself as more “normal” and independent spark confusion (some call her a “rhino”).
• Draper explains it as disillusionment with the GOP and notes she’s “always been principled,” though not in a bipartisan way.

E. The Ascendant Far-Right & Figures Like Nick Fuentes (177:16–193:14)

• Focus group participants—especially younger ones—dabble in conspiracy theories and sometimes antisemitic tropes around figures like Candace Owens, Charlie Kirk, and Fuentes.
• Draper warns the GOP is more likely to fracture than return to the “party of Romney.”

  “...as long as Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson and increasingly Nick Fuentes have the traction that they do, the party’s moving their way, not the opposite direction.” (193:14)

VII. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Normalization of Autocracy:

  “People are already prepared to accept stuff that would have shocked them a decade ago because of everything that’s happened ... That’s already an authoritarian sign.” – Anne Applebaum (61:03)

• On Institutional Erosion:

  “If Trump outright defies the Supreme Court, it’s a huge moment... it will cause an enormous ripple effect.” – Anne Applebaum (30:44)

• On Voter Disorientation:

  “They tell us what they want us to hear. Is it the truth? Who knows?” – Focus Group Participant (12:40)

• On Historical Hope:

  “If enough people do the next right thing, they change the world.” – Heather Cox Richardson (67:30)

• On Fighting Cynicism:

  “We're not done... The very fact you and I are having this conversation shows we are not done yet.” – Heather Cox Richardson (68:59)

• On the Future of the GOP:

  “The Republican Party’s moving their way, not the opposite direction.” – Robert Draper (193:14)

VIII. Key Takeaways

• Hopelessness as a Strategy: Deliberate creation of confusion and disorientation—by design—erodes civic engagement.
• Normalization of Extraordinary Abuses: Actions like defying courts or exacting political revenge are, for many focus group voters, only “politics as usual.”
• Rise of Radical Elements: The boundaries between "mainstream" MAGA and openly antidemocratic, antisemitic, or conspiratorial currents are blurring fast.
• Protest & Participation Offer Real Hope: Even amid fear, historic surges in peaceful protest can reshape political discourse.
• America’s Fate Isn’t Sealed: As history shows, profound, positive change can be forged when enough ordinary people get engaged—if the spirit isn’t snuffed by fatigue or confusion.

IX. Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | Content | |---------|-----------|---------| | Intro & Year Overview | 03:33 | Sarah explains the “best of” format and main questions | | Authoritarian Drift (w/ Applebaum) | 04:41 | Timeline for democratic backsliding, disinformation, nostalgia | | Focus Group: Disinformation | 12:17 | Voters debate deportation case, impact of echo chambers | | Demagoguing Out-Groups | 16:32 | Authoritarian tactics around scapegoats, info chaos | | Supreme Court’s Decline | 27:05–30:44 | Focus group reacts, Applebaum on defying courts | | Law Firms & Whataboutism | 35:03–39:04 | Focus group on Trump’s legal attacks, “whataboutism” | | Targeting Higher Ed | 48:19–54:49 | Harvard funding/DEI, parallels with Orban, sham pluralism | | Normalization & Apathy | 56:19–61:03 | Voters accept tit-for-tat as inevitable | | Hope & Protest (w/ Richardson) | 66:37–110:45 | Historical perspective, impact of protest, generational change | | Info Crisis & Dem Conspiracies | 123:33–129:49 | Dems questioning election results, TikTok rumors | | Division on the Right (w/ Draper) | 136:33–149:47 | Israel, antisemitism, MAGA schisms, Trump 2028 question | | MTG’s Evolution | 161:07–175:30 | Voter confusion, Draper analysis, “principles” | | The Future Right | 187:51–193:14 | Fuentes, Tucker, fractured leadership, future trajectories |

This episode illuminates a nation at the edge—fractured, weary, and deeply uncertain of what’s real, but (sometimes) still willing to fight for clarity, decency, and democracy itself.