The Focus Group Podcast (The Bulwark)

Episode: S6 Ep18: Sarah’s First Focus Groups
Date: January 3, 2026
Host: Sarah Longwell with producer Connor Kilgore

Episode Overview

This episode takes a meta look at the origins of The Focus Group Podcast itself—specifically, why and how Sarah Longwell began conducting focus groups with Republican voters in the post-2016 Trump era. Instead of focusing on current events or the 2026 landscape, Sarah and Connor revisit some of the very first ever focus groups and what they revealed about the shifting GOP electorate, Trump’s rise, and how regular voters processed (or ignored) scandals and news stories.

Connor turns the tables by interviewing Sarah about her motivations, first impressions, and hindsight lessons from those early sessions, including sharing never-before-heard focus group clips.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Sarah’s Breaking Point with the GOP (03:17–07:46)

• Sarah’s professional background: Spent 15 years at a GOP communications firm, chaired Log Cabin Republicans.
• The 2016 shock: Sarah fully expected to take over her firm and fight for “normal” Republicans (Jeb, Rubio, Kasich, Fiorina) and thought Trump’s victory was an aberration.
• On seeking an anti-Trump primary challenger: Sarah and Bill Kristol explored whether someone like Hogan or Kinzinger could challenge Trump in 2018, which led to her early focus groups.
  • Quote (Sarah, 06:53): “The main thing everybody wanted to know was if they did that, would they embarrass themselves? ... And then that wasn't true.”

2. First Focus Groups & The “Oh, Shit” Moment (07:46–10:39)

• Columbus, OH, 2018 - The Helsinki Summit
  • Sarah’s first groups were Trump voters who had once been reluctant. The moderator had to explain the Trump-Putin Helsinki controversy because few participants even knew it had happened.
  • Quote (Sarah, 10:39): “The oh, crap moment was realizing that in Washington, the whole Republican Party was freaking out... but the voters didn’t know anything about it.”
  • Key lesson: Don’t overestimate the information voters get—scandals can literally not break through.

3. What Breaks Through for Voters? (10:39–13:48)

• Heightened D.C. drama versus focus group oblivion taught Sarah that:
  • There’s a profound difference between what Washington elites think is scandalous and what regular voters know or care about.
  • Voters may ignore or not care about some major stories, but others they just never hear at all.

4. Making Peace With Trump: Early Rationalizations (13:48–18:25)

• 2019 New Hampshire groups: Moderates, many who voted reluctantly for Trump, had begun to rationalize or even praise him.
  • Justifications included:
    • “He’s a businessman who can get things done”
    • “Obama did the same with immigrant kids in cages”
    • “Trump communicates unfiltered with his base via Twitter”
• The “whataboutism” and shifting from “lesser evil” to positive support was visible.
  • Quote (Sarah, 18:42): “As Republicans started to make their peace with Trump and went from ‘I voted for him because I didn’t want to vote for Hillary’ to ‘No, Trump is good. Actually.’”

5. Evolution of Trump Defense & the Base (21:02–27:08)

• First-term vs. second-term Trump defense:
  • First term: Trump is “under siege”, enduring unfair attacks.
  • Now (2026): Defenses are more muted, frustrated, or disaffected—providing him “B” or “C” grades, less blindly loyal.
  • Many who came for “the businessman” are disillusioned. “Normie” Republicans are open to alternatives like J.D. Vance, while “red-pilled” MAGA types seem lost post-Trump.
  • Quote (Sarah, 21:34): “At some point there was a lot of sunk costs into Trump... and so like they’d been defending him for so long that once the court cases came... (they) rally round Trump.”
  • Quote (Connor, 25:44): “It is a lot more reminiscent of the sort of malaise that we saw during the Biden years from Democrats than... aggressively defend(ing) him.”

6. Feeling Besieged: Social Dynamics Among Trump Voters (29:07–32:42)

• Early on, Trump voters described being socially or professionally isolated; they felt ridiculed, creating further tribal loyalty and defensiveness.
  • Quote (Sarah, 30:33): “We put them in groups... and everybody, like, exhales... you can hear in the groups... they spend a lot of their time feeling under siege... and that created, over time, like, a real tribal sense, both of being aggrieved and then sharing with other Trump voters.”

7. Is the GOP Going Back? (33:11–36:25)

• Sarah is adamant: The GOP isn’t returning to a pre-Trump, classic conservative party. The base is not interested in Reagan/Bush style conservatism.
  • Quote (Sarah, 33:11): “The Republican Party is not going back, and everybody should, like, understand that the voters don’t want it back. They don’t want the old Nikki Haley.”
  • J.D. Vance may ‘inherit’ some support but will lack Trump’s magnetism.

8. Democrats vs. Republicans: Information & Identity (38:27–43:28)

• FAQs: Are Republican voters less factual or more conspiratorial than Democrats?
  • Sarah notes the GOP base is often more “identity” driven (“I am a Republican because...”), while Dems are “belief” driven (“I think... I believe...”).
  • Conspiratorial MAGA/redd-pilled Republicans exist, but “normies” are more like classic partisans.
  • Quote (Sarah, 39:04): “Republicans... political identity is very much like a who they are... Democrats use the language of I think or I believe.”

9. Focus Group Methodology & Authenticity (44:30–46:01)

• Why groups, not individuals? Sarah defends the group format as more authentic to real-world influence and social validation:
  • Quote (Sarah, 44:54): “People are actually influenced by their in-groups. In real life, they’re not alone... the group dynamic mimics more closely life dynamic than individual things.”

10. 2026 Races to Watch (48:10–51:45)

• Sarah: Excited for the Ohio governor’s race (Vivek Ramaswamy vs. Amy Acton), especially to observe racial attitudes and how a former public health official fares.
  • Quote (Sarah, 48:18): “There’s been an unbelievable amount of naked racism... especially against American Indians... I’m interested to see how people in Ohio react.”
• Connor: Looking at the Texas Senate GOP primary—Will corrupt Ken Paxton beat John Cornyn?
  • Raises the question: Will voters prefer “nakedly corrupt” MAGA figures over less colorful establishment types?

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “The oh, crap moment was realizing... that the voters didn’t know anything about it.” — Sarah Longwell (10:39)
• “At some point there was a lot of sunk costs into Trump... they’d been defending him for so long…” — Sarah Longwell (21:34)
• “You either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become the establishment.” — Connor Kilgore (27:08)
• “They’re never going to have a better opportunity than right now, but they do have to seize it.” — Sarah Longwell on Democrats’ 2026 prospects (36:25)
• “The group dynamic mimics more closely life dynamic than individual things.” — Sarah Longwell on focus group methodology (44:54)
• “They want the most corrupt guy. Ken Paxton is bringing all the corruption and you know, the Riz of the tabloids.” — Sarah Longwell (50:43)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 03:17–07:46: Sarah’s background & the Trump “aberration” theory
• 08:27–10:39: Early focus group—voters unaware of Helsinki scandal
• 13:48–18:25: New Hampshire group—Trump rationalizations & GOP base shifts
• 21:02–27:08: How defense of Trump has evolved since first term
• 29:07–32:42: Social isolation & tribalism among Trump voters
• 33:11–36:25: GOP’s irreversibility & lessons for Democrats
• 38:27–43:28: Are Republican voters more “wrong”? Conspiracy, identity, and information
• 44:30–46:01: Why focus groups are done in groups, not alone
• 48:10–51:45: Races to focus group in 2026—Ohio, Texas, broader trends

Final Thoughts & Takeaways

• Sarah’s early shock: The Republican “base” was far more accepting (or indifferent) to Trump’s scandals than D.C. insiders believed.
• Scandals often don’t “break through” outside the political class.
• GOP voter identity has shifted from “beliefs and ideology” to deep, tribal “identity.”
• Present-day Republicans show less passion—more disillusionment and “wait and see.”
• Focus groups reveal the social, emotional underpinning of political identity, not just positions.
• Looking ahead to 2026: Republicans aren’t reverting to their old party, and Democrats have a real shot—if they can seize it.

For listeners and non-listeners alike, this episode offers a compelling behind-the-scenes explanation of how everyday voter opinion is formed and revealed, and why focus groups remain critical to understanding the American electorate beyond headlines and election results.